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Xray the Enforcer

[ADWD SPOILERS] The Watcher

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WHY THE HELL WOULD CERSEI WANT TO KILL TRYSTANE?! It doesn't make any sense!! Which is completely in-character for Cersei.

Let's look at it from Cersei's perspective.

She wants Myrcella back from Dorne permanently, for one thing. Getting rid of Trystane would definitely achieve that. She was never happy about the marriage contract. And forget about any other consequences, of course.

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Guys, I seriously think Doran was lying through his teeth to the Sandsnakes. He just wanted to get them riled up and listen to his commands, so he chose the easiest way to do it. There is no plot against Trystane.

yes i was thinking this myself. killing trystane is too stupid even for cersei. and the outlaws will shout "halfman, halfman"!!! incredible. only dumbasses like the sandsnakes would believe that. and doran knows it too...

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It's nice to officially have moved beyond AFFC timeline-wise. Now things can really...happen that we didn't know already happened? Old POV characters can come back (though, yeah, in this case I would have preferred someone else besides Hotah for this POV...).

I...did not find this Trystane plot to be too OOC for Cersei. :P

But heck, whatever gets the Sandsnakes into King's Landing! I can't wait to see one of them on the council.

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I have much love for Areo Hotah... he's had some of the more subtly brilliant chapters, though nothing will top the over ripened oranges and the unopened letter.

Anyway, we had many Cersei POVs in AFFC, since this seems to be our first chapter post AFFC, I think we can conclude that this was not Cersei's plot. Which means there are two options: 1) Doran is lying or 2) Doran was lied to. I think its most likely the former. Because who would lie to Doran? Highgarden? Via who, Lady Merryweather? What about Little Finger? possibly through a Kettleblack or by raven to Dorne? Or is it a more secretive source (Vary/Illyrio, FM or Citadel?) I think there is significant treachery about and the princes of Westeros are about to be gobsmacked.

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Let's look at it from Cersei's perspective.

1. It was Tyrion's scheme

ergo

2. It must be opposed.

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If certainly has the markings of a Cersei scheme:

1. Uneccessary, or at least an overreaction

2. Overly complex

3. Murderous

But the possibility of it not being true, hmm. The only evidence Doran has that we see is the fact that Swann didn't want to sail. Which could be explained by just what Swann said it was, fear of pirates in the Stepstones.

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The only evidence Doran has that we see is the fact that Swann didn't want to sail. Which could be explained by just what Swann said it was, fear of pirates in the Stepstones.

I thought the evidence was provided by Doran's mole at court?

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The most signifithing about this chapter was that we have oficially progressed beyond the timeline of AFFC. The next chapter could bring us news of

...Cersei's beheading

...Edmure's escape from the Lanisters

...The Blackfish joining his strength to... I don't know - somebody.

...The fall of Highgarden.

...The truth about the mysterious, shape changing hips of Jeyene Westerling.

...Perhaps the entry into the War of the story's last, incredibly important, as of yet unseen character: The Knight of the Laughing Tree, Howland Reed.

None of these things would have been possible until now. And we are only halfway through the book. I like the idea of Lady merriweather as a spy for Doran Martell. Adding support to this theory, he was the first, I believe to know that the golden company had broken its contract with Myr.

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I wonder if the contingent from Dorne will head out before they learn that Cersei has been taken captive by the Faithful? Isn't that the really big wrinkle here?

I don't actually think Cersei has this plan. I think she, much like many others, underestimates Doran and believes him to be a weak ruler and therefore unlikely to do any harm to her daughter. Were I Cersei, I'd think Myrcella safer in Dorne than in King's Landing with all the Tyrells.

But I also don't think Doran is lying either. I suspect they are both being played by higher authority. This stinks of Little Finger IMO. He thrives off chaos and chaos is what he will get. Cersei will inevitably blow her good relations with the Tyrells, LF made a comment about her screwing that up faster than he imagined possible. Once she has broken off her ties w/ the Tyrells that is when Dorne should attach King's Landing. Highgarden, though sworn enemy of Dorne, won't interfere if Cersei burns her bridges enough. That or HG will be too busy fighting the Iron Born and Dorne will still be able to go after KL w/o HG getting in the way.

To what gain, I cannot say. If the Tyrelles are fighting the Iron Born and Dorne is fighting Kings Landing and the North is tearing itself apart between Roose Bolton and Stannis, then the Vale looks awful powerful. LF is then in the position to help out whatever side he thinks has the best chance of succeeding.

Its a little crackpot, but this whole conspiracy just doesn't seem to fit w/ Cersei after AFFC.

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So Doran Martell still doesn't know that Aegon is alive....What will happen when he learns of it? I can't wait!

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Guys, I seriously think Doran was lying through his teeth to the Sandsnakes. He just wanted to get them riled up and listen to his commands, so he chose the easiest way to do it. There is no plot against Trystane.

I wonder if the contingent from Dorne will head out before they learn that Cersei has been taken captive by the Faithful? Isn't that the really big wrinkle here?

I don't actually think Cersei has this plan. I think she, much like many others, underestimates Doran and believes him to be a weak ruler and therefore unlikely to do any harm to her daughter. Were I Cersei, I'd think Myrcella safer in Dorne than in King's Landing with all the Tyrells.

But I also don't think Doran is lying either. I suspect they are both being played by higher authority. This stinks of Little Finger IMO. He thrives off chaos and chaos is what he will get. Cersei will inevitably blow her good relations with the Tyrells, LF made a comment about her screwing that up faster than he imagined possible. Once she has broken off her ties w/ the Tyrells that is when Dorne should attach King's Landing. Highgarden, though sworn enemy of Dorne, won't interfere if Cersei burns her bridges enough. That or HG will be too busy fighting the Iron Born and Dorne will still be able to go after KL w/o HG getting in the way.

To what gain, I cannot say. If the Tyrelles are fighting the Iron Born and Dorne is fighting Kings Landing and the North is tearing itself apart between Roose Bolton and Stannis, then the Vale looks awful powerful. LF is then in the position to help out whatever side he thinks has the best chance of succeeding.

Its a little crackpot, but this whole conspiracy just doesn't seem to fit w/ Cersei after AFFC.

Very good point. Yes, he is either lying himself or being lied to. Don't think it is Cersei's conspiracy.

Oh and can't wait to see the Sand Snakes in court.

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I wonder if the contingent from Dorne will head out before they learn that Cersei has been taken captive by the Faithful? Isn't that the really big wrinkle here?

I don't actually think Cersei has this plan. I think she, much like many others, underestimates Doran and believes him to be a weak ruler and therefore unlikely to do any harm to her daughter. Were I Cersei, I'd think Myrcella safer in Dorne than in King's Landing with all the Tyrells.

But I also don't think Doran is lying either. I suspect they are both being played by higher authority. This stinks of Little Finger IMO. He thrives off chaos and chaos is what he will get. Cersei will inevitably blow her good relations with the Tyrells, LF made a comment about her screwing that up faster than he imagined possible. Once she has broken off her ties w/ the Tyrells that is when Dorne should attach King's Landing. Highgarden, though sworn enemy of Dorne, won't interfere if Cersei burns her bridges enough. That or HG will be too busy fighting the Iron Born and Dorne will still be able to go after KL w/o HG getting in the way.

To what gain, I cannot say. If the Tyrelles are fighting the Iron Born and Dorne is fighting Kings Landing and the North is tearing itself apart between Roose Bolton and Stannis, then the Vale looks awful powerful. LF is then in the position to help out whatever side he thinks has the best chance of succeeding.

Its a little crackpot, but this whole conspiracy just doesn't seem to fit w/ Cersei after AFFC.

LittleFinger may not be in the same position as he once was, now that he no longer is at court in King's Landing. I was surprised that Doran had heard about Aegon's fleet (although he doesn't know it's Aegon) but that he hadn't received word about the imprisonement of Cersei/Margaery.

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I just like how Areo doesn't give a damn about all this interesting plots surrounding him and only cares for doing his job.

Anyway I am not so sure if Littlefinger is involved in this. If I understood it correctly Ser Balon was involved in this "murdering Trystane in the kingswood" plot since the beginning. And doing that just to get Myrcella free from Dorne just smells of Cersei (+ the madness of this plan). It still sounds strange that she tried to piss of the Dornish, while she also wanted a man-at-arms from Dorne for the court (if I don't mix up here some things). I am only surprised that she won over Shagga's clansmen, I thought they became outlaws in the kingswood. Then again gold makes probably almost everything possible.

I think Doran's mole in King's Landing is/was this Merryweather lady from Myr. I couldn't think of someone better at court and the Dornish seems to have good relationships with people from the Free Cities. If my memory is correct she fled King's Landing after Cersei got imprisoned, so that could be why Doran doesn't know of this yet. Maybe also the council is trying to avoid to spread this news, considering that the realm is still pretty unstable.

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I could go either way with it being Cersei's idea or not. I can see it being her idea in that with Oberyn dead and Doran seen as weak (the grass to be tread on), perhaps Cersei doesn't see any repercussion in eliminating another rival. It is stupid, but Cersei is far from rational at this point in the story. And trying to lay the blame on Tyrion would also be something stupid that she might try to do.

If it is a ploy by someone else, to what gain? Warning Doran keeps the kid safe and averts the way, even if increasing enmity. If someone else wanted to start something with Doran, wouldn't it have been better to see the plot out and then send a message saying it was a Cersei plot?

Of course it very well might be a lie by Doran to get the sand snakes into court and out of his hair so that another Myrcella incident doesn't happen again. Or perhaps Martin really wants the sand snakes there and couldn't come up with a better reason. Either way, I like that they will be there and more involved in the story. I was at first afraid that they might stay stuck in their towers and would never get a chance to play a more important role. Glad that that isn't the case.

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Is there any indication in Cersei's chapters about her plan to kill Trystane? Shouldn't we know about this from her POV?

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Is there any indication in Cersei's chapters about her plan to kill Trystane? Shouldn't we know about this from her POV?

It is mentioned a couple of time in her chapters that Ser Balon Swann has an agenda other than just delivering Gregor's head to the Dornish prince.

IMHO, this smells of Cersai. My only doubt is whether the mountain clansmen really are Shagga and the Storm Crows, and if so, why and how did Cersai get them on her side? I mean, so far she has a blanket hatred for everything associated with Tyrion.

Also, if Lady Merrywhether is really the mole, then isn't she also betraying Highgarden, since HG and DOrne are old enemies?...hmmm, the plot thickens.

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IMHO, this smells of Cersai. My only doubt is whether the mountain clansmen really are Shagga and the Storm Crows, and if so, why and how did Cersai get them on her side? I mean, so far she has a blanket hatred for everything associated with Tyrion.

I think it was supposed to be Cersei's men from KL masquerading as mountain clansmen in order to frame Tyrion.

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That was exactly my thought when reading this chapter. Though I have no real evidence for it. Just the coincidence that Lemore must have had a child once and Tyene's mother was a septa.

Is it really Gregor's skull? If yes, what is Qyburn doing in the dungeons of KL? Attempting a head transplant? If no, where did they obtain a skull of this size?

IIRC, Cersei had Qyburn send one of the dwarf's heads that she had received from mercenaries. Some dwarf heads are actully bigger than a "big person's" head.

GH

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Guys, I seriously think Doran was lying through his teeth to the Sandsnakes. He just wanted to get them riled up and listen to his commands, so he chose the easiest way to do it. There is no plot against Trystane.

I don't think he needed to lie to convince them to help him move against anything or anyone at KL is my only reason to suspect it's not entirely contrived. Why lie when the truth will suit just as well? Maybe he's been tricked, but I don't see any purpose for the lie. Of course, that may just be due to the rather... limited perspective Areo gives, but oh well.

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It is mentioned a couple of time in her chapters that Ser Balon Swann has an agenda other than just delivering Gregor's head to the Dornish prince.

IMHO, this smells of Cersai. My only doubt is whether the mountain clansmen really are Shagga and the Storm Crows, and if so, why and how did Cersai get them on her side? I mean, so far she has a blanket hatred for everything associated with Tyrion.

Also, if Lady Merrywhether is really the mole, then isn't she also betraying Highgarden, since HG and DOrne are old enemies?...hmmm, the plot thickens.

I remember this too. She never thought what it was going to be just that she was sending Swann on another mission.

I agree teh POV is boring coming from Areo, but I was so happy to see the return of Dorne that I didn't mind too much.

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