[ADwD Spoilers] The Varys-Illyrio Conspiracy

[borwin]

Actually I dont think that Dany and her brother were a plan B, but that all three Targ's were meant to be a plan A, since the Dragon has 3 heads.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

My main issue is this. If Varys really wants to "serve the realm" he's doing a really terrible job at it. All he has done for the last 5 years has brought chaos, war, famine and death to The Realm

This makes me think that he was lying to Ned when he says he serves the realm. I have no idea what his motives are otherwise though. It all seems pretty contrived at this point.

[longlivestark]

I'm pretty sure its a basic requirement for any decent player of the game of thrones to be self serving; Cersei, Varys, Littlefinger, Mace Tyrell, Dany, Stannis, Renly, Euron; each wanted or wants the throne for there own reasons and there hardly selfless reasons.

[Ibanez]

Dany was given all three eggs simply because NO ONE thought they could hatch, they were no different the fossilized eggs we see in museums today. They were beautiful and worth a fortune, but Illyrio never knew they could be hatched, he thought they were just valuable gifts.

We do not necessarily have any evidence for this except that Illyrio says it to Dany, but he could easily be lying. We have no idea how Illyrio got the eggs, but IIRC he says they come from the Shadow Lands by Asshai. If we assume two things, that Illyrio is in some way a servent of R'hollor and that Varys and Illyrio have been plotting these events since they day (or even before) Varys arrived in King's landing, then it is very possible that Illyrio suspected the eggs would hatch. After all, there is clearly an important prophecy in R'Hollorism that says someone will wake dragons form stone, and we have to assume there is a vast amount of information reagrding both AA and PwwP that we do not know about, so it is not too much of a stretch to say Illyio anticipated the dragons hatching. He also told Tyrion he though Dany would die on the Dothraki Sea, but he may not have been lying if he believed she would be "reborn amidst smoke and salt..."

It seems to me Varys is the most powerful player in the game of thrones, so I like the idea that he has been plotting for decades and was the architect of Aerys' fall, but I have one problem with this. The rebellion was really sparked by Rheagar kidnapping Lyanna, and not so much anything Aerys' did (although burning Brandon and Rickard in response surely helped). We know Rheagar was concerned with PwwP and that he thought it would come from his line (and we have the vision of him claiming Aegon is it). We don't know if Rheagar's primary motivation for kidnapping Lyanna was love or destiny however, when he says of Aegon "his is the song of Ice and Fire" I could not help of thinking of Jon and that his potential parentage.

Is it possible that Rheagar and Varys were in cahoots and that Varys' endgame is trying to bring about the PwwP? Do we have any evidence of Rheagar and Varys' being in any significant amount of communication? When in relation to Varys arriving in King's Landing did bookish Rheagar become warrior Rheagar? I also assume that at that time Rheagar believe he was PwwP but that he later determined it was Aegon, and that potentially even later he determined it was Jon (or rather that it would be he and Lyanna's child). Do we know when Aegon was born in relation to ToJ and Lyanna's death? I know he was a baby at the sack of King's Landing, but did that happen before or after ToJ? I assume before because Ned found on the Iron Throne with a bloody sword and then presumably went straight to the ToJ but I don't remember this clearly and don't have the books handy. Also, how did Ned find out Lyanna was at the ToJ? Is it possible that Varys supplied him this information under the pretense of trying to save Lyanna's life and that this is the reason Robert pardonded Varys when so many people believe him a big part of Aerys' demise.

I really like the idea that Varys and Illyrio have been plotting to fulfill some of the prophecies we have seen, but there are a few too many inconsistencies for me to be certain. It is interesting however, that Illyrio knows that "the dragon has three heads" and he and Varys we vital in saving presumably two of teh three heads (Aegon and Dany), and they may even be responsible for Jon's birth or involved in it.

[Jon AS]

We do not necessarily have any evidence for this except that Illyrio says it to Dany, but he could easily be lying.

Why the hell would he lie to Dany about that if he wants her to try to birth dragons?

[longlivestark]

We do not necessarily have any evidence for this except that Illyrio says it to Dany, but he could easily be lying. We have no idea how Illyrio got the eggs, but IIRC he says they come from the Shadow Lands by Asshai. If we assume two things, that Illyrio is in some way a servent of R'hollor and that Varys and Illyrio have been plotting these events since they day (or even before) Varys arrived in King's landing, then it is very possible that Illyrio suspected the eggs would hatch. After all, there is clearly an important prophecy in R'Hollorism that says someone will wake dragons form stone, and we have to assume there is a vast amount of information reagrding both AA and PwwP that we do not know about, so it is not too much of a stretch to say Illyio anticipated the dragons hatching. He also told Tyrion he though Dany would die on the Dothraki Sea, but he may not have been lying if he believed she would be "reborn amidst smoke and salt..."

It seems to me Varys is the most powerful player in the game of thrones, so I like the idea that he has been plotting for decades and was the architect of Aerys' fall, but I have one problem with this. The rebellion was really sparked by Rheagar kidnapping Lyanna, and not so much anything Aerys' did (although burning Brandon and Rickard in response surely helped). We know Rheagar was concerned with PwwP and that he thought it would come from his line (and we have the vision of him claiming Aegon is it). We don't know if Rheagar's primary motivation for kidnapping Lyanna was love or destiny however, when he says of Aegon "his is the song of Ice and Fire" I could not help of thinking of Jon and that his potential parentage.

Is it possible that Rheagar and Varys were in cahoots and that Varys' endgame is trying to bring about the PwwP? Do we have any evidence of Rheagar and Varys' being in any significant amount of communication? When in relation to Varys arriving in King's Landing did bookish Rheagar become warrior Rheagar? I also assume that at that time Rheagar believe he was PwwP but that he later determined it was Aegon, and that potentially even later he determined it was Jon (or rather that it would be he and Lyanna's child). Do we know when Aegon was born in relation to ToJ and Lyanna's death? I know he was a baby at the sack of King's Landing, but did that happen before or after ToJ? I assume before because Ned found on the Iron Throne with a bloody sword and then presumably went straight to the ToJ but I don't remember this clearly and don't have the books handy. Also, how did Ned find out Lyanna was at the ToJ? Is it possible that Varys supplied him this information under the pretense of trying to save Lyanna's life and that this is the reason Robert pardonded Varys when so many people believe him a big part of Aerys' demise.

I really like the idea that Varys and Illyrio have been plotting to fulfill some of the prophecies we have seen, but there are a few too many inconsistencies for me to be certain. It is interesting however, that Illyrio knows that "the dragon has three heads" and he and Varys we vital in saving presumably two of teh three heads (Aegon and Dany), and they may even be responsible for Jon's birth or involved in it.

My problem with your theory is that illyrio does not seem to had any plans for Dany besides marrying Drogo to gain the Dothraki, his plan was Viserys, there just seems to be no way they knew Dany would hatch those eggs and gain dragons, if they did, they probably would have spent more time with Dany and less with Viserys. As for Varys knowing about the PTWP, I really doubt it, he seems to want nothing more then HIS Aegon on the throne and not because some prophecies says so.

[Ibanez]

Why the hell would he lie to Dany about that if he wants her to try to birth dragons?

Because if Dany is AA and destined to wake dragons from stone, then it will be done and telling her that she is the savior come again is probably not a good thing for a 13 year old girl. Just look how Lebron turned out after being on the cover of SI with the title "The Chosen One."

He also may not have wanted to say the truth at the wedding with everyone around.

[Fishy]

I don't think the Varys/Illyrio scene in AGOT supports this. Illyrio says, "What good is war now? …we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born." This is before the dragons hatch, and Dany and Drogo are mentioned as being central to the plan. Also, you should add Illyrio giving Dany the three priceless dragon eggs. Why would he do this if he expects her to die? Why not give the dragon eggs to Aegon? Where did he get the dragon eggs? Illyrio sending Dany off to die with the Dothraki makes zero sense -- he must be lying to Tyrion.

Not really. Everybody seems to place a lot of importance on the dragon eggs, yet they never were. Not until the moment they hatched. Before that they were just valuable stones. Pieces of rock and a brilliant wedding gift. Illyrio has the money, so he has to come up with a good wedding gift, and what’s better than that?

I do believe Dany and Viserys were important to the plan however, but only became so later. Perhaps after Illyrio and Varys figured out a way to get another army (read Dothraki) tu support Aegon. It’s interesting that at the start of aGoT the two have only been with Illyrio for six months. It’s likely that they did not dare risk any kind of suspicion against Illyrio until after they figured out that the girl had her uses.

This is the best evidence that I've heard so far to indicate that Aegon might be a fake. Why would Dany have been given all three eggs? You'd think that Varys and/or Ilyrio would've wanted to spread them around amongst their collection of Targaryen heirs both for safe keeping and to maximize the chance that one of them would figure out how to work them.

There are three dragons at the banner of House Targaryan. Viserys is not married, why would he receive such a gift? Especially since he is the most useless of them all really… Dany is good for marrying Drogo at least. Viserys is just good for being a distraction. That makes 2 for Dany. The last one could have been given to Aegon, but again why? Aegon is a traveling boy, he would have no reason to hold Dragon Eggs, people would ask questions or try to steal it from him. Safer to give them to a woman with an army of Dothraki behind her. Besides they were just expensive stones. Aegon would have profited more from money.

I think the reason for this was simply to be able to cause chaos after Robert's death, by using his bastards to prove that the 'legitimate' children were abominations born of incest. You have the potential for civil war and the disgrace of the Lannisters and a nice opportunity for 'Aegon' to land and declare himself the true born heir to the iron throne.

Or alternatively, he has no reason to hate them and just takes care of children because, hey he can and they’re children.

My main issue is this. If Varys really wants to "serve the realm" he's doing a really terrible job at it. All he has done for the last 5 years has brought chaos, war, famine and death to The Realm

This makes me think that he was lying to Ned when he says he serves the realm. I have no idea what his motives are otherwise though. It all seems pretty contrived at this point.

Has he? He tried to stall the war and failed, he tried to keep Robert safe and failed. Once that was done though he had no choice but to keep the war going as long as possible giving Viserys, at least at first, Dany & Aegon a chance to meet up and reclaim Westeros. He did what he did to serve House Targaryan (or himself for some reason).

Because if Dany is AA and destined to wake dragons from stone, then it will be done and telling her that she is the savior come again is probably not a good thing for a 13 year old girl. Just look how Lebron turned out after being on the cover of SI with the title "The Chosen One."

He also may not have wanted to say the truth at the wedding with everyone around.

I don’t see why he didn’t just say something earlier. Tried to prepare her better, get Dany & Viserys in his house more then six months before the wedding. Dany and Viserys seem to be nothing more then ways to distract Robert Baratheon and when they finally have an opportunity with them (the marriage) they use it and take control over their lives. I see no evidence at all that they ever believed her to be AA reborn, and if they did then they sure took their sweet ass time with finding her.

[Ibanez]

My problem with your theory is that illyrio does not seem to had any plans for Dany besides marrying Drogo to gain the Dothraki, his plan was Viserys, there just seems to be no way they knew Dany would hatch those eggs and gain dragons, if they did, they probably would have spent more time with Dany and less with Viserys. As for Varys knowing about the PTWP, I really doubt it, he seems to want nothing more then HIS Aegon on the throne and not because some prophecies says so.

I don't disagree, I mean, don't get me wrong I like that idea, but I don't necessarily think its true. I also feel though that because it seems like Illyrio had no plans for Dany certainly doesn't make that the case, especially in a GRRM world. There is also speculation that the house with the red door that Dany so fondly and frequently remembers is in fact a Red Temple, which, if true, lends credence to the idea that Illyrio has been involved with them for much longer than we know (if he too is involved with the Red God). Why then he let them live as beggars for a couple of years after William Darry died is beyond me, but I am not ruling any of this out.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Has he? He tried to stall the war and failed, he tried to keep Robert safe and failed. Once that was done though he had no choice but to keep the war going as long as possible giving Viserys, at least at first, Dany & Aegon a chance to meet up and reclaim Westeros. He did what he did to serve House Targaryan (or himself for some reason).

Propegating the war of the 5 kings and murdering Kevan Lannister are the biggest problems. The realm desperately needs peace - NOW. Not, whenever Aegon managed to raise the banners. Not whenever Daenerys happens to land. NOW.

The Realm needs to build food stores for the winter. It needs a way to feed its people, and house them for the winter. Half of the fertile lands remaining in Westeros have been burning all autum or have been salted by Tywin Lannister's men. Half the Riverlands people have been slaughtered by all the fighting. The realm is in Chaos and much of that is due directly to Varys' actions during aGoT, aCoK, and aSoS. He shows no concern for either the smallfolk or for the true threat in the North.

Perhaps instead of being for the realm he's a Targ sympathizer. Okay, fine. However, if Aegon is fake, Varys surely knows it (and I'm 90% certain he's fake), but he still insists on keeping the realm destabilized for so long that the people have suffered horrors beyond count so that this fake heir can take over? How is fakeAegon any better than fakeRobert's heir? It's not.

[wolverinehokie]

What has always bugged me about the Danny plotline is what did Drogo hope to get out of the marriage? The Dothraki take whatever women they want, why would he agree to give someone 40k fighters just for a pretty girl? He also clearly didn't want to go across the sea. Clearly Viserys wanted an army, but I don't get what was in it for Drogo.

As for the dragon eggs, there is no indication they were the only eggs V&I had. The Targs for generations were constantly trying to hatch eggs it seems so I think there are more than 3 V&I could have found. Also, didn't Bloodraven have one? I think V&I could have more somewhere. I think they gave Dany 3 just in case she was able to do something with them, but didn't expect much.

But what really bugs me about V&I, why didn't they tell D&V Jorah was spying on them? Why didn't they tell V&D about "Aegon"? For that matter, why didn't they tell Barristan about "Aegon"? If he's really Aegon, he has a better claim to the throne which means Barristan would want to protect him as top priority, not Dany.

I honestly feel like GRRM just came up with the "Aegon" plotline for this book and was not always part of his plan. I think this whole story has gotten away from him and he doesn't actually have a plan for finishing it. This whole V&I plotline to me seems like it has too many holes in it. There is a chance it can be cleared up, but I have serious doubts.

[Fishy]

Propegating the war of the 5 kings and murdering Kevan Lannister are the biggest problems. The realm desperately needs peace - NOW. Not, whenever Aegon managed to raise the banners. Not whenever Daenerys happens to land. NOW.

The Realm needs to build food stores for the winter. It needs a way to feed its people, and house them for the winter. Half of the fertile lands remaining in Westeros have been burning all autum or have been salted by Tywin Lannister's men. Half the Riverlands people have been slaughtered by all the fighting. The realm is in Chaos and much of that is due directly to Varys' actions during aGoT, aCoK, and aSoS. He shows no concern for either the smallfolk or for the true threat in the North.

Perhaps instead of being for the realm he's a Targ sympathizer. Okay, fine. However, if Aegon is fake, Varys surely knows it (and I'm 90% certain he's fake), but he still insists on keeping the realm destabilized for so long that the people have suffered horrors beyond count so that this fake heir can take over? How is fakeAegon any better than fakeRobert's heir? It's not.

Perhaps long term instead of short term? There are two possibilities here, Aegon is real or Aegon is fake. If real then he loves Targs. If fake then he just wants someone fit to rule on the throne. Regardless of which it is, Aegon can be a uniting factor after all this war. Varys would realize as well as anybody that no peace brought by Lannister and Tyrell swords would last. The Vale will eventually rise, the North will eventually rise again, the Riverlands will eventually rise again, and Dorne will rise as well. The alliance between Hosue Lannister and House Tyrell is doomed from the start and Varys realizes this. They can never win the war, and if they do the amount of bloodshed will be incredible, and to be repeated again and again and again and again every few dozen years or so.

A Targaryan on the throne again could stabilize the country, unite them all again and bring peace where there was none before.

Regarding the threat to the North, well yeah that's a bad thing but perhaps he just doesn't realize it to be as dire as the Nights Watch says.

And last but not least the Winter that is coming. If Varys has seen this coming and been planning this for so long, I doubt a silly thing like winter would really stop him, especially when he is so close to fulfilling his plans. What is he supposed to do? Give it up, let his best hope (Aegon) die while he tries to make peace in the rest of the realm knowing full well it won't last?

[KhalRhaego]

Jorah tells Dany that she could sell the eggs and get enough money to raise an army. If Dany's only value is in trade for an army, why give her a gift that is equal in value to an army? Even if I don't know the current "Dothraki Screamer" to "Dragon Egg" monetary conversion rate, it still seem like an extremely extravagant wedding gift if she's just currency to him. Buy her a blender and be done with it if she's truly just a throw away character.

[Fishy]

Jorah tells Dany that she could sell the eggs and get enough money to raise an army. If Dany's only value is in trade for an army, why give her a gift that is equal in value to an army? Even if I don't know the current "Dothraki Screamer" to "Dragon Egg" monetary conversion rate, it still seem like an extremely extravagant wedding gift if she's just currency to him. Buy her a blender and be done with it if she's truly just a throw away character.

Buy her an army of swellswords who sail over the narrow sea and then they see the Gold Tywin Lannister has to offer, so they go offer to him instead. You need a standing army, like the Dothraki an army that isn't bought to stand with your swellswords if you want them to actually stick by you. Also it's very unlikely that the army that could be bought would be very big, I know Illyrio is rich, but rich enough to buy 40 to 60.000 man (the very minimal needed to take Westeros I'd wager)?

[Markus]

Also somewhere in the books it talks about Rhaegar reading a book of prophecy and changing forever after that. Perhaps this book of prophecy was given to Rhaegar by Varys.

Rhaegar was still a "boy" when he read something in his scrolls. Varys only came to Westeros after Aerys began not to trust Rhaegar. So I don't think that Varys had anything to do with Rhaegar deciding he needed to become a warrior.

With regard to the dragon eggs, when other Targaryens tried to hatch eggs in the past they seem to have tried this with magic. We seem to know that Varys at least isn't a fan of all things magical. So one may doubt that he had any intention to faciliate the hatching of dragons, which would make the eggs just pretty stones and not dragons in the making in his and possibly Illyrio's mind. This also fits with Illyrio presumably not expecting Dany to live.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

And last but not least the Winter that is coming. If Varys has seen this coming and been planning this for so long, I doubt a silly thing like winter would really stop him, especially when he is so close to fulfilling his plans. What is he supposed to do? Give it up, let his best hope (Aegon) die while he tries to make peace in the rest of the realm knowing full well it won't last?

Let Kevan, Margarey and Tommen have this last year of autumn in peace so that the realm can prepare for winter in terms of having food so the people don't just all starve. Then when winter is in full swing, that's when Varys should advise Aegon to strike.

Keeping the realm in constant war for 3 years and then following that with 10 years of brutal winter is not a viable strategy if you care at all about the people of the realm. As you said yourself Varys' strategy is long term. Aegon / Dany can wait a couple more years. If the lannister/Tyrell alliance is really so fragile, surely it will explode again sometime during the winter and then the Targs can make their move(s).

[ras rayder]

What is the point of an Illyrio-Varys conspiracy? Illyro is doing just fine in Pentos, and Varys holds quite a bit of power in Westeros (or did). Neither of them can be King, and neither has ever appeared to be close enough to any potential heir to wield power through them.

It just seems like theses conspiracy theories center around enacting a hugely complex strategy that won't really pay off for them. How much richer/powerful can they be? I doubt Varys wants a castle.

I suppose vengence could be the reason, but that seems weak. All this b/c V got the chop? doubtful. Blackfyre? Too long ago, who would even care anymore?

[KhalRhaego]

With regard to the dragon eggs, when other Targaryens tried to hatch eggs in the past they seem to have tried this with magic. We seem to know that Varys at least isn't a fan of all things magical. So one may doubt that he had any intention to try to let anybody hatch the dragon eggs, which would make them just pretty stones and not dragons in the making in his and possibly Illyrio's mind. This also fits with Illyrio presumably not expecting Dany to live.

The last dragon had 5 eggs which were never hatched. I don't know if this implies that there are only 5 dragon eggs in existance, but I think so. If so, and Dany's got 3 out of 5, that's a pretty big deal. It would seem to me to be more difficult to obtain 3 of the 5 dragon eggs in existance than to raise an army for Viserys. Euron also reportedly had an egg which he threw into the sea when he couldn't wake it which would leave Dany with 3 of the 4 eggs left (assuming Euron's egg doesn't make a reappearance).

I have this crazy theory that the magic that cost Varys his penis was magic being used in an attempt to wake the Dragon eggs which is how they came to be in his/Ilyrio's possession.

In the Dunk and Egg tales:

Aegon says that he and his brothers each have eggs (Daemon, Aerion, Aemon, and Aegon) and there is an egg offered as a prize by Lord Butterwell (which he reportedly got from Aegon IV after he deflowered his 3 daughters). Aerion was exiled to the free cities so presumably one of his dragon eggs went with him which may explain how ONE egg ends up in Essos for Ilyrio to purchase, but it doesn't explain where he would've gotten the other two. Also, I think this is the egg which Euron ultimately ends up with. Aegon later dies at Summerhall trying to wake a dragon egg or eggs. In the Dunk and Egg tales I believe that Aegon ends up with Lord Butterwell's egg, he'd have his own, and Aemon takes the black and lets Aegon take the throne so maybe Aegon gets Aemon's egg as well. This leaves Daemon's egg, but when he dies Aemon is living with him as his Maester so I think Aemon would've gotten his egg as well and maybe that went to Aegon as well. This would leave Aegon with 3-4 eggs (one of which may not be real). Grated this is a LOT of speculation on my part.

At any rate the Tragedy at Summerhall was reportedly in year 259. I was trying to figure out how old Varys would be and couldn't, but Ned was apparently born in 263. If (and I'm just guessing) Varys is maybe 10 years older than Ned was, then he would've been about 6 and he reported became a Eunach as a child, so it's not impossible.

The egg(s) at Summerhall were either destroyed or they went somewhere. I think that Dany's eggs came from Summerhall making them exceptionally valuable which would mean that Varys and Illyrio wouldn't just throw them away as wedding gift.

Or maybe the eggs all just ended up in Essos and Ilyrio stole them from some random house. Who knows? But that makes for a TERRIBLE conspiracy theory. ;)

[The Lost Lord]

Not really. Everybody seems to place a lot of importance on the dragon eggs, yet they never were. Not until the moment they hatched. Before that they were just valuable stones. Pieces of rock and a brilliant wedding gift. Illyrio has the money, so he has to come up with a good wedding gift, and what’s better than that?

Well, it's because the dragon eggs are crucial to the plot of the entire series. We have never heard of any others existing in the present-day world and we have no idea how Illyrio got them or why he gave them to Dany. They are not just valuable stones, each one can buy an army -- why hand them over to Dany when you can sell them and supplement Dany's Dothraki screamers with three additional armies?

If you are right, Dany's whole arc hinges on an incredible stroke of good luck that's really kinda lame writing. But it's true that Illyrio wanting Dany to hatch the eggs doesn't really make sense either, because why wouldn't he tell her?

[Markus]

The last dragon had 5 eggs which were never hatched. I don't know if this implies that there are only 5 dragon eggs in existance, but I think so. If so, and Dany's got 3 out of 5, that's a pretty big deal.

According to Illyrio, Dany's eggs came "from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai." If true there may still be more than Dany's and the Targaryen dragon eggs -- who may have been destroyed -- around. Dany has also heard tales of dragon eggs which may suggest that they are rare but not that rare.

In AGoT Bran sees to Asshai by the Shadow, where dragons stirred beneath the sunrise. so we know of dragons in that part of the world too.