[ADwD Spoilers] The Varys-Illyrio Conspiracy

[Sandusky]

•At some point, Viserys and Dany hang out with the Golden Company, and Viserys tries to convince them to fight for him. It doesn't work. I don't think it's revealed who is in charge of the Golden Company at this point, but it indicates that the conspirators aren't interesting in helping Viserys. (Source: Somewhere in DwD. I should have written this one down)

The third Daenerys chapter:

"Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him. Dany had only been a little girl, but she remembered."

[Frostking]

It would be amazing if Varys and Littlefinger's plans converged. For example Aegon conquering the south and west, with Sansa backed by Littlefinger rising to power in the Eyrie and regaining Winterfell for the Starks, and then Sansa and Aegon wed, securing the Iron Throne.

[Hielo y Fuego]

I'm certain that Jon Connington is 100% convinced that Aegon is Rhaegar's son. But I don't understand what you imagine this "confirmation of the boy's identity" to be. What could Varys and Illyrio have done to "prove" it other than tell a plausible origin story? You yourself have already pointed out how there are no real tests for legitimacy. All Griff knows is what Varys and Illyrio have told him. And like all "hidden heir" tales in real life there are always good, honest people who are convinced of both sides of the issue because there is only circumstantial evidence.

Sorry, but I've never pointed out that there are no real tests for legitimacy. I only acknowledged that dragons may be no good for this. But I have already suggested other options that could possibly work, such as greenseers hooking into trees or red priests looking into their flames, for instance. I admit neither option sounds too reliable or feasible, but I do believe either could work.

As for Connington looking for proof of the boy's legitimacy, I'm not saying he would have an easy time doing so, just that I'd imagine a man such as Lord Jon doing everything that is within his power to gather as much evidence as possible, before throwing in his lot with V & I. Simply because of his deep feelings for Rhaegar and his loyalty to House Targaryen.

I don't see the man making a rash decision on something that could very well be his legacy. Even when he hadn't contracted grayscale back then, he certainly must have been willing to die for this cause and no man would throw his life away so rashly, I would think.

Plus Jon has two personal reasons to wish Aegon to be Rhaegar's true son and this would color his judgement subconsciously, leading him to be more likely to believe V/I's tale.

1) His unresolved feelings for Rhaegar drive him to want to do well by his dead beloved - Aegon is a way to "prove himself" to Rhaegar and make up for his past failure.

2) He wants to regain his homeland - Aegon is a great way to do this.

Right on both accounts. And I've even acknowledged that Lord Connington may be deluding himself into believing YG to be Aeg Targ even if the boy proves to be a fake. Again, all I'm saying is that, if he's convinced it's not only because he's taking the word of a couple of obvious swindlers in good faith. Something must have convinced him that the boy's the real thing...even if/when that may not be the case.

Believe it or not, I did not consider Dany's "Mummer's Dragon" prophecy as evidence when I came to the conclusion that Aegon is probably fake. IMO Mummer's Dragon has nothing to do with Aegon's legitimacy (Varys was a mummer, therefore Aegon is the Mummer's Dragon, whether legit or not).

I have no reason not to trust your word, MDIND. That's your theory and it's as valid and possibly sound as any other out there, such as Dany's or Moqorro's visions. I just feel different, that's all.

Instead it's two things that convince me: 1) GRRM taking the time to point out Illyrio's crippling Sadness when YG is brought up and 2) the dragon eggs

Well, in this case, my interpretation of Illyrio's melancholy and sadness could be attributed to many things, such as him becoming attached to the boy or him feeling nostalgic about seeing his carefully conceived and laid out plan finally coming to life or simply, that the boy reminds him of himself as portrayed in that statue over by his pool. Oh yeah, the kid could be his own son, I don't dispute it. I just don't feel like that's the case nor am I interested in convincing anyone of seeing things my way. To each their own. I'm sure GRRM will clarify the situation for all of us...and hopefully, not 5, 6 yrs. from now :D

[Markus]

So, you mean to say Connington doesn't really care about putting a phony on the Iron Throne

Connington is clearly convinced that YG is Aegon. My point was that him being convinced doesn't make it real. He wouldn't know if a five year old with the right coloring is Aegon or not. In particular when he wants to believe it. If you want to believe something you may be more ready to believe it than otherwise.

As for Tyrion, I may be mistaken, but I don't recall him doubting Aegon's legitimacy.

After YG has his fit of rage Tyrion thinks: He may well be a Targaryen after all.

Note the use of "after all" which can be read as "in spite of expectations". Though it's admittedly ambiguous because "after all" can be read as "in view of all circumstances" too. So Tyrion's thought is open to interpretation.

Dany's vision is suggestive depending on each reader's POV, IMO.

My PoV was derived from the vision not the other way around. I didn't decide to interpret the vision after I'd made up my mind about YG being real or not. The vision announced a false dragon controlled by a mummer, probably Varys, and voila, there is an absolutely perfect candidate in YG.

Just for the record, though, I'm not contesting the existence of a false dragon (or more), just that Aegon strikes me as too obvious a choice for someone like GRRM. Almost to the point of lameness, actually.

I daresay most readers who don't frequent this board or others which discuss the series -- which would be most readers -- will be surprised if YG is revealed to be a fake because they just don't have Dany's or Moqorro's visions in mind when they read about YG. Discussing the series in more depth can skew ones perspective about what is or isn't obvious.

Same goes for all other kinds of magic that GRRM has been revealing with each book. The fact that it wasn't around in full force before AGoT doesn't mean it can't be used now to reveal many things in the past, such as this or Jon's true parents, for instance. Again, unlikely perhaps, but not completely out of the question.

I'm quite certain that magic will be used to reveal secrets of the past and present. The point I was trying to communicate is that while we may expect this V/I wouldn't have, so wouldn't have had much qualms about introducing a fake Aegon on this account.

[Sandusky]

EDIT: sorry, should have read more posts. Nothing to see here folks, keep moving... :unsure:

[Hielo y Fuego]

Connington is clearly convinced that YG is Aegon. My point was that him being convinced doesn't make it real. He wouldn't know if a five year old with the right coloring is Aegon or not. In particular when he wants to believe it. If you want to believe something you may be more ready to believe it than otherwise.

Just so. But then again, there are other times when you want to believe in something so badly that, when you find it, you immediately become suspicious and think it may be too good to be true. In which case, I would assume you'd do your very best just to find out if this thing is true indeed.

Alas we have no evidence either way, to see if your take or mine is exactly what happened to Lord Jon. So, we'll just have to continue agreeing to disagree in this sense, at least, me thinks.

After YG has his fit of rage Tyrion thinks: He may well be a Targaryen after all.

Yep, I understand the way Tyrion's using the expression. I just didn't remember (I've only read the entire series once and I'm currently on my first reread, halfway through ACoS, so I've overlooked some of the minor details in ADwD). Thanks for the quote and reminder, though. Point well taken.

My PoV was derived from the vision not the other way around. I didn't decide to interpret the vision after I'd made up my mind about YG being real or not. The vision announced a false dragon controlled by a mummer, probably Varys, and voila, there is an absolutely perfect candidate in YG.

Well, as I said in my previous post, there's many signs pointing in the direction of YG being a fake (Dany's visions, Moqorro's, Varys' "Mummer's Dragon", etc.). IMO, it all comes down to believing this to be real leads or just huge red herrings. For instance, I was thoroughly convinced that Dany was AA reborn, because to me, the signs were crystal clear but now it seems the majority believes that to be Jon Snow. Matter of POV, like I said.

I daresay most readers who don't frequent this board or others which discuss the series -- which would be most readers -- will be surprised if YG is revealed to be a fake because they just don't have Dany's or Moqorro's visions in mind when they read about YG. Discussing the series in more depth can skew ones perspective about what is or isn't obvious.

Well, with all due respect, I don't think you're giving readers who are not frequently posting on boards enough credit haha! As you can see by the date I joined and my number of posts, I'm fairly new here, yet I started reading the ASoIaF series about 3 yrs. ago and have been able to figure out a few things on my own (not even through discussions with friends or anything), not too many but a few.

So, while I agree that this sort of interaction makes it possible to find out many things (I was totally unaware of Manderly's frey pie till I read about it in this forum, for instance), I think some things are so obvious that they jump out at you. In this case, big stuff such as AA, TPTWP, Dany's 3 treasons, etc. are usually stuff that the reader will be trying to decipher on their own, even if they may get it wrong.

I'm quite certain that magic will be used to reveal secrets of the past and present. The point I was trying to communicate is that while we may expect this V/I wouldn't have, so wouldn't have had much qualms about introducing a fake Aegon on this account.

Agreed. V & I weren't expecting for many things to go as they did. One of them must have been Aegon rashly deciding to sail to Westeros instead of reaching Meereen, spurned by Tyrion's words, for instance, or Dany managing to bring the dragons to life. But, since we agree that V & I must have gone to great lengths to make sure no one knows about the kid's true identity except for the 2 of them, what's to say that GRRM will reveal the truth behind the character to the reader?

If the kid's gonna be revealed as a fake, thinking here's that it would be presented to us as a major dramatic plot point. For story-telling purposes, if not for anything else. Hence, that would only serve to prove my point that, if he's a phony, the kid can be effectively exposed as such, I would think.

But in the end, my point remains, fake or real, I think it'd be safe to assume that Aegon's role wouldn't change much, lest he were to be revealed as a fake before it's all said and done.

[Markus]

If the kid's gonna be revealed as a fake, thinking here's that it would be presented to us as a major dramatic plot point. For story-telling purposes, if not for anything else. Hence, that would only serve to prove my point that, if he's a phony, the kid can be effectively exposed as such, I would think.

Dany is the "slayer of lies". When YG is revealed as a fake Aegon she respectively agents of hers like her dragons or Tyrion will reveal it.

[Hielo y Fuego]

Dany is the "slayer of lies". When YG is revealed as a fake Aegon she respectively agents of hers like her dragons or Tyrion will reveal it.

So the boy can be revealed as a fake then. By Dany's dragons, possibly, no less...which means there is a risk implied in this type of conspiracy that would never be there, should the boy prove to be the real thing.

Precisely what I've been saying all along lol!

What I don't have is the slightest idea on how Tyrion could discover and, most importantly, reveal YG as a fake. But even if he did, the word of a kinslayer and regicide should not hold much weight in a society such as the Westerosi. So, who would believe him anyways?

[Markus]

So the boy can be revealed as a fake then. By Dany's dragons, possibly, no less...which means there is a risk implied in this type of conspiracy that would never be there, should the boy prove to be the real thing.

Without risk there is no gain. Though the additional risk of a fake Aegon over the real one was small as I said. And when the real Aegon is dead a fake one has to suffice when the alternative is mad Viserys or some girl.

What I don't have is the slightest idea on how Tyrion could discover and, most importantly, reveal YG as a fake. But even if he did, the word of a kinslayer and regicide should not hold much weight in a society such as the Westerosi. So, who would believe him anyways?

Tyrion has extensive knowledge about dragons. So he may have some knowledge about the link between Targaryens and dragons which can be used to expose a fake one. Tyrion was also very curious about why Illyrio is involved in the scheme and might still wonder about it. If YG is Illyrio's son Tyrion may've some crucial information. He knows how Serra, Illyrio's wife, looked. He knows that Illyrio was a slender swordsman when he was younger.

As to who would believe Tyrion, who says that he would be widely believed? It might be that only a few will know the truth but that this might suffice to bring YG down. If Dany turns against YG because she believes Tyrion this may be enough.

[Hielo y Fuego]

Without risk there is no gain. Though the additional risk of a fake Aegon over the real one was small as I said. And when the real Aegon is dead a fake one has to suffice when the alternative is mad Viserys or some girl.

Assuming the boy is a fake, which to this point is still mere speculation, regardless on how strong the evidence leading to that conclusion may be...

Tyrion has extensive knowledge about dragons. So he may have some knowledge about the link between Targaryens and dragons which can be used to expose a fake one. Tyrion was also very curious about why Illyrio is involved in the scheme and might still wonder about it. If YG is Illyrio's son Tyrion may've some crucial information. He knows how Serra, Illyrio's wife, looked. He knows that Illyrio was a slender swordsman when he was younger.

Okay, this is a scenario I would accept. If YG is Illyrio's son, then I could totally understand the cheesemonger's motivation behind the whole thing. Being a rich celebrity in a place like Pentos cannot compare to knowing that your descendants will be sitting on the Iron Throne. Doesn't explain Varys' motivation, though, unless he sees the boy as one of his pet projects, given that he can have no children of his own, of course. I could buy this, sure.

As to who would believe Tyrion, who says that he would be widely believed? It might be that only a few will know the truth but that this might suffice to bring YG down. If Dany turns against YG because she believes Tyrion this may be enough.

Assuming Dany is willing to take one of the "Usurper's dogs" as a close, trusted adviser, of course. There's no guarantees that this will be the case and some have even suggested it won't be so, based on the way she has dismissed Ser Barristan, every time he has tried to tell her all about the different Houses that were behind Robert's rebellion.

So far, Barristan has only spoken highly of Ned Stark, but if you're Dany and you can't even see the honor and nobility in someone such as Lord Eddard, I wonder what she'll make out of a kingslaying, kinslaying, whoring, drunken Imp?

Edit: for grammar corrections.

[Markus]

So far, Barristan has only spoken highly of Ned Stark, but if you're Dany and you can't even see the honor and nobility in someone such as Lord Eddard, I wonder what she'll make out of a kingslaying, kinslaying, whoring, drunken Imp?

She won't think well of him. Until Tyrion proves his worth and loyalty. Which shouldn't be difficult. He knows much more about dragons than Dany and could help train and control them. He is very clever and could help her defeat Yunkaii, Volantis and Quarth, and expose the Harpy. After that Dany might well be favorably inclined towards Tyrion.

[Hielo y Fuego]

She won't think well of him. Until Tyrion proves his worth and loyalty. Which shouldn't be difficult. He knows much more about dragons than Dany and could help train and control them. He is very clever and could help her defeat Yunkaii, Volantis and Quarth, and expose the Harpy. After that Dany might well be favorably inclined towards Tyrion.

Well, there's a reason why Varys sent him to Illyrio and in turn, Illyrio to Dany, of course. And, as I have pointed out before, having gotten rid of the big, bad Lord Tywin must have earned Tyrion points with the Targ crowd, even if he did it for very different, personal reasons.

As long as his first words to Dany are not, "do you know where the whores go?" I think it's safe to say Tyrion will find a way to prove his worth to the dragon queen, sure. I just dunno in which capacity, though. There's so much he could do for her: teach her all about Westerosi Houses and their history; Cersei's strengths and weaknesses, and about dragons, among those things, yes.

Still, IMO and assuming Tyrion is not one himself (as has been widely speculated), I think his biggest worth to Dany will be in helping her spot potential traitors, like the Harpy, precisely, assuming Meereen doesn't turn into the chaotic hell it seems poised to become, especially after Victarion's arrival.

Agreed 100% on this.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Assuming Dany is willing to take one of the "Usurper's dogs" as a close, trusted adviser, of course. There's no guarantees that this will be the case and some have even suggested it won't be so, based on the way she has dismissed Ser Barristan, every time he has tried to tell her all about the different Houses that were behind Robert's rebellion

Tyrion is not one of the Usurpers' dogs, though. Those men are Tywin and Jaime (the Lannisters, father and son, so golden and so rich), Ned (cold-eyed Lord stark), and Jon Arryn. This is explicitly told in aGoT.

Dany has never shown any ill will towards members of the houses of the Usurper's Dogs. Only the men themselves. Tyrion was 8 at the time of the war - IMO Dany is not the type to hold the sins of the father against someone (she knows her father and brother are crazy).

That said, Dany knows the power of family loyalty, so she will be skeptical of Tyrion for a certainty. The fact he murdered his father and supposedly Joffery will be essential.

[Hielo y Fuego]

Tyrion is not one of the Usurpers' dogs, though. Those men are Tywin and Jaime (the Lannisters, father and son, so golden and so rich), Ned (cold-eyed Lord stark), and Jon Arryn. This is explicitly told in aGoT.

Dany has never shown any ill will towards members of the houses of the Usurper's Dogs. Only the men themselves. Tyrion was 8 at the time of the war - IMO Dany is not the type to hold the sins of the father against someone (she knows her father and brother are crazy).

That said, Dany knows the power of family loyalty, so she will be skeptical of Tyrion for a certainty. The fact he murdered his father and supposedly Joffery will be essential.

Essential yes...but, in a positive or negative way?

After all, a man capable of murdering his own sire and not only his king, but nephew and kin as well, wouldn't strike me as the reliable type. At least not on first glance. We know just how appalling a crime kinslaying is considered to be in the 7K's and I'd assume in Essos, as well.

Additionally, Dany's not one who can be swayed through gold (Bronn) or promises of gold (Brown Ben Plumm). So, Tyrion will certainly have to be at his sharpest in order to earn Dany's trust.

IMO, it'll be interesting to see what happens when he brings the Second Sons back around; especially taking into consideration the deep resentment (if not outright hatred) that Dany harbors for Brown Ben right now. It could go a long way in helping Tyrion demonstrate that he has good intentions or be quite counterproductive. Especially since we're talking about a self-described moody and fickle teenage girl.

So, it's not only about Dany's feelings for the Houses responsible for her father's downfall, IMO. It's about the way Tyrion may introduce himself to her and the dragon queen's reaction to the little Imp's deeds and words.

Actually, I don't want to derail the thread and this seems off-topic to me. So, to get back on track, maybe word from Illyrio could be what swings the balance in Tyrion's favor. After all, the cheesemonger did seem quite interested in getting Tyrion to Dany.

[Santino]

oh yeah! AND, Illyrio refers to The Lord of Light, could it be that the followers of R'hllor are in on the whole thing? It does seem that several red priests and priestesses find themselves at key junctures in the story. Melisandre especially.

Anyways...just some thoughts.

Illyrio is from the East, so it is very likely that he worships a common religion in that region. I think the Red priests that are wanting to support Dany feel that way because of her dragons. She basically wields fire now.

[SpaceChampion]

As evident from his and Illyrio's theft & retrieval scheme in Pentos, once they find a grift that works, they tend to stick to it.

If it had been all female heirs that Varys was collecting, I would think he was collecting them to marry some off to the exiled nobles in the Golden Company, but most to the scions of House Blackfyre (assuming the theory he is a Blackfyre is true), the same way he wants to marry Aegon (Blackfyre) to Daenerys Targaryen, so that restoring Blackfyre to Westeros can be done by marrying into a majority of the significant Houses who they need to control to make the Blackfyre usurpation stick.

Just getting the Iron Throne may not be enough, the Blackfyres may want to be publicly acknowledged as descendents of Damon Blackfyre, out of pride. Even if they don't do something that stupid, If the damn Great Houses decide to rebel just because they've had enough of the Targs, well you need hostages or control of each House to make sure any rebellion will fail. Power in Westeros has always been determined by military might and bloodlines... you might even say Fire and Blood. Varys is no fool.

Since it is not all female heirs, I have to wonder how many female Blackfyres there might be around.

How many heirs does Varys have anyway? Nothing is confirmed of course, but it's speculated he has Tyrek Lannister, Edric Storm... and who else? He probably tried to get Sansa, obviously failed. Did he get an Arryn? A Tyrell? How about a Martell? Lesser Houses?

[longlivestark]

How many heirs does Varys have anyway? Nothing is confirmed of course, but it's speculated he has Tyrek Lannister, Edric Storm... and who else? He probably tried to get Sansa, obviously failed. Did he get an Arryn? A Tyrell? How about a Martell? Lesser Houses?

If he really is collecting heirs, then that is really it. GRRM is very clear about major members of each house, in the AGOT appendix he lists characters like Euron, Oberyn, and Arienne, none of whom appear or are even mentioned until later books. The only character I see that has been MIA for years is Gerion Lannister, who is believed lost at sea, but besides him, no one of any importance is missing that I could find.

[Kadence]

I'm extremely confident that he is Aegon Mopatis, heir to House Blackfyre via Serra, and that he was always Plan A for Varys and Illyrio. More of it can be detailed in a thread I made a while back: Is Varys on Team Blackfyre?

Summary of the main points:

• Illyrio says "some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood". Everything falls into place if you assume that Blackheart Myles Toyne never switched his loyalty to the Targs - and instead, he was one of the founding members of the conspiracy and his loyalty belonged to the Blackfyre female line. Strickland was probably ignorant of this.
  
• The evidence for Aegon being the son of Illyrio and Aegon is quite heavy, but the problem there is one of motive. It would be completely nonsensical for profit hungry merchant Illyrio to send the son of his beloved Serra away from himself, never to raise the child, and risk his life in the Game of Thrones of a foreign land - and the son wouldn't even know the identity of his own father. It is a completely mad scheme involving his son being raised by strangers and putting his life in grave danger. It would be absurdly unrealistic for a man in his position to do this. Yet if Serra heir the Blackfyre then his motive suddenly falls into place - the Iron Throne was the heart's desire of Serra's family and they warred for it for 100 years. He dreams of giving Serra's son her "birthright". He is sending him home.

There's also literary logic reasons to believe this like Martin's huge emphasis on Blackfyres and the rivalry between Blackfyres and Targaryen - we as readers can safely deduce that Blackfyre descendants will play a huge role in events to come. Aegon is the most obvious candidate to be this descendant. Note also Cersei's thought on whores in Lys having Targ coloring when she thinks of Aurane Waters. Probable foreshadowing for Serra.

Vision evidence is also there, in terms of the slayer of lies mummer's dragon vision, and also Moqorro's vision about dragons true and false.

I also think it is probable that Varys and Serra were closely related, with Varys possibly being Serra's brother. I am not convinced of this but I think it likely. It explains much.

• Varys' actions become perfectly explicable. He had no love for Aerys - so why would he crave Targ restoration with Viserys and Dany? If he's of the Blackfyre line his anti-Aerys actions are explained by Targ hatred, and he was simply using the two kids as possible assets that might bear fruit.
  
• Varys shaves his head just like Egg. Egg being a clue to the reader about Varys' identity would be typical Martin. If Varys had Targ ancestry he'd have no reason to hide this from Aerys. If however his silver hair might lead to questions about his background and he had Blackfyre ancestry, it's the last thing he'd want.
  
• Varys and Illyrio are oddly loyal to each other. Them being related explains this.
  
• Serra is from Lys and Pycelle claims that Varys was born a slave in Lys. Only later I guess did Varys move to Myr. He very possibly had Illyrio bring over Serra.
  
• Varys has no way to know YG all that well personally yet seems to have an unreasonable faith in him. He also claims to act for the realm yet kills Kevan and lets Cersei live. Also YG is hardly someone Varys can count on manipulating and gaining power through - YG is under Connington's influence (who hates Varys), Varys has no hold on YG whatsoever - it isn't a Littlefinger-Sansa situation. The man's actions seem to have personal reasons behind them rather than being about political self-interest or "for the realm". Him being YG's relative explains a lot. It would also make sense that Varys would have persuaded Illyrio into this scheme, as I don't think Illyrio would send his son away without persuasion. The whole scheme was probably masterminded by Varys.

The main problem I have with my Varys-Serra brother-sister theory is that Varys would be the heir over Serra - though him being a eunuch might explain why he would consider himself bypassed.

However one thing is that people are discounting Aegon's future role - I think because they simply are focusing on the "slayer" wording of the vision (I'm pretty skeptical she is directly responsible for the deaths of either Stannis or YG), and also the fact that they know Dany is the more major character and they don't think the two characters can co-exist. I don't think that's true. Aegon is not the liar here - that would be Illyrio and Varys. Dany isn't the type to slay innocents and YG is not to blame for any of this. Aegon might die in battle or of greyscale or something, but I can't see Dany executing him. And Dany cannot slay any lies by killing Aegon - Aegon's death would in no way prove he wasn't Rhaeghar's son. She needs actual evidence to slay this lie, and Aegon's death wouldn't help her case. Actual evidence would have to be a confession from Illyrio or something of that sort (possibly via the Tattered Prince-Pentos storyline, and being egged on by Tyrion to gather more info).

Also the "dragon paternity test" stuff is almost certainly just fanciful fan talk - Dany is well aware of Summerhall and Drogon almost killed her. Dany is not lunatic enough to believe dragons or fire-resistance are any sort of DNA test. A dragon might have killed Rhaeghar, let alone Rhaeghar's son. I certainly don't see Dany's own dad taming a dragon. And of course there's the fact that with Blackfyre blood the dragons might have an affinity for him anyway, which would give a false positive result - being Rhaeghar's son should make dragon afffinity no more likely than being a Blackfyre. Dragon paternity test makes no sense in any possible way.

People also discount that Aegon could be a false Rhaeghar's son and still be the third "head" of the dragon. A fake Rhaeghar's son can still be a true dragon as that is also the sigil of House Blackfyre. There would be a beautiful and poetic symmetry to the three heads being two Tagaryens and the heir to the Blackfyre line. It would be another subversion by Martin as well - the fake pretender is still a scion of prophecy, instead of just an obstacle for the protagonist to overcome. Note that if I had to guess I would with great hesitation pick Bran as the third head, but even though I'm certain Aegon is not Rhaeghar's son he remains a very viable candidate for third head and future dragonrider.

[Greg B]

Can someone clear up the timeline here:

•Four to five years after the end of Robert's Rebellion, Varys makes plans with Jon Connington to have him leave the Golden Company and spread rumors about his death.

•The supposed Aegon is raised by fishers, given lordly instruction by Connington [...]

So assuming YG is the real Aegon, four or five years after he has presumably been swapped and spirited away by Varys, Connington leaves the Golden Company and fakes his death. Sometime later he hooks up with Aegon and begins his instruction. Do we know how much time elapses here? How old is Aegon at this point, and what's he been doing? Just hanging out with the fishers? No protection for the heir to the Targaryen Dynasty during this time? Why did Varys and Illyrio wait 5+ years to start treating him like a prince they meant to restore to power?

There's nothing conclusive here, but circumstantially, it's almost as if V&I "discover" their heir to the throne four or five years after the end of the Rebellion.

[Envie]

Perhaps because he knows Aegon is no Targ and hence could never hatch the egg?

(I missed the first part of your post - I'm assuming here that Illyrio was hoping Viserys/Daenerys could hatch the eggs).

If this were the case, why would he give the eggs to Daenerys (assuming he thinks they could be hatched)? If he thinks there's even a chance they could hatch... wouldn't he spend a lot more effort making sure the recipient is aware of that and trained on the history of hatching dragon eggs? Was Dany really just hatching them by stupid luck or because some divine hand was guiding her to do it?

No, I don't think Illyrio had any inkling those eggs were viable, that would make them a gift far too valuable even for a potential Targaryen successful hatching when even other Targs have failed at it in the recent past history. Even as stone novelties they were very valuable. As viable living eggs, they are priceless.

Also, if Illyrio thought Daenerys would just die - why waste the eggs on her?

This conversation is really well done, I appreciate the OP's efforts and research on it. To me, this is probably the biggest mystery of the entire story... what on earth is Varys and Illyrio's motivations for this entire plot? What do they really get out of it in the end game?

Oh and I'm going to go ahead and toss my coin in with the side that believes Viserys and Daenerys were always meant to be a 'Plan B' ... I think they counted on their "Aegon" being a surer bet (since he would have the greater claim to the throne anyways). They went ahead and bartered Dany off in hopes it might materialize an army from the Dothraki, but not putting too much investment into it (although those eggs ended up being a huge investment unwittingly set up perhaps). I don't think Illyrio wanted Viserys to go with Daenerys and the Dothraki, she even says so in her 'dream' conversation with Viserys when she's sick in her final chapter of ADWD. She said "You should have stayed in Pentos with Illyrio when Drogo had to present me to the Dosh Khaleen but you insisted on going" or something similar to that. This led me to wonder if maybe Illyrio wanted Viserys to stay there incase Dany gets killed with the Dothraki or from Westeros assassins.

Still.. the dragon has three heads theory makes me wonder why, if Aegon is really Aegon, they'd have split up the three kids and kept them secret from one another for so long. Safety reasons, I'm sure, but there again, wouldn't they have been safer under careful protection and secrecy all three together the way Aegon was so successfully hidden away on a pole boat his whole youth? Why send Viserys and Daenerys out parading around as the "beggar king" if he was so important?