[ADwD Spoilers] Young Griff 2

[Toe]

Illyrio/Varys conspiring to bring a non-Targaryen relative to the throne? Interesting theory. Some problems

1. At least Illyrio in the infamous Varys-Illyrio conversation is convinced that Dany will invade eventually (but not right now) with the help of Drogo. He asks Varys to delay the civil war because of this. What YG would gain from an Drogo/Dany invasion is unclear and there is plenty of potential negatives such as the ravaging Dothraki making people antagonistic to Targaryen pretenders.

2. Varys promises to delay but in fact seems to do everything he can to fuel the suspicions of the Starks against the Lannisters and thus start the civil war. Speaks against Varys really supporting Illyrio.

3. Why would Varys undermine Aerys's regime by making Aerys paranoid? That Varys at this stage could foresee that Aegon would be killed in such a way that no identification could be made, as well as Rhaegar being killed, seems extremely far-fetched.

4. Why is Varys hiding the threat of the Others from the small council? That is a potential gigantic world-ending invasion for whoever takes the throne and better opposed as early as possible.

5. Why is Varys saving some of Robert's bastards?

[cteresa]

People send their children to war all the time, though, even to certain death. I don't really buy the argument from sentiment.

Yes. When they have no choice, when they have something to win, when they think their child has something to win. When they have a set of values about honor and duty that makes the war be the *right* thing.

In this book, taking into account that Illyrio has no apparent heir, that he seems to have adored his second wife (up to marrying her) who has what to gain from Illyrio using his own child as an impostor in an long term attempt to gain the throne of Westeros?

- he loses for sure his own heir. And a chance to have him near and claim him as his own. This is particularly important if he loved his now dead wife.

- the risk of the child being killed during a bid attempt is high.

- to gain what? A puppet on the throne of Westeros? He gets that anyway with any child he picks to call Aegon if not his son. If he is, then what? After YG becames king he can go "luke, I am your father" and gain what from it? The only thing I can imagine he would gain is if he remained quiet and secret pleasure on secretly being the grandfather of a (royal) dynasty. But that is a way of thinking that values royal titles, thinks those important. Would a merchant of tradesman of the free cities not prefer to be the acknowledge grandfather of a much safer banking/merchant dynasty? The merchants and bankers do not think as the lords and ladies of Westeros, Tyrion reminds us of that again and again.

so no, Illyrio risking an hypothetical child of his (his only child by any reference so far) by a wife he loved, in a decades long game, which is pretty risky to the child, in order to make the child king of westeros (if lucky enough), and with that gaining only one thing (secret knowledge of his child being a king) that he would not gain from using a child from Varys´s little birds sources is not convincing. The only thing he would have to gain does not seem to me a thing he would value!

[Ran]

Whereas... I think he would value it, because, well, how not? Illyrio's a very ambitious man indeed, to meddle with the Seven Kingdoms as he has been doing. And what greater ambition can one have than to make one's son the ruler of the greatest kingdom in the world?

[cteresa]

And what greater ambition can one have than to make one's son the ruler of the greatest kingdom in the world?

Littlefinger does not seem to think like that exactly (no speculation about his future plans admitted as counterevidence). What about having your son(and you) safe, sound and yours, safer than any such king, richer than any such king and in a position of power, manipulating such kings?

[mak]

Maybe Denaerys was plan A and Aegon was plan B? Aegon has been prepared in case they needed him. With Denaerys sitting in Mereen (and not plotting to get to Westeros fast enough), maybe it was time to dust of off Aegon/Plan B?

This is not a fully formed theory, but I'm heading in that direction.

"Aegon, what better name for a king? He has a song. He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire. There must be one more. The dragon has three heads."

[Flea Bottom's Up!]

I think he's both the real thing and the mummer's dragon.

With all the mentions of the 'mummer's dragon' it always occurs to me that there can be a couple of different ways to interpret it. One is that the 'mummer's dragon' is a dragon used in a mummer's performance. The other is that it is a dragon possessed by a mummer. IIRC, Vary's was originally in a mummer's troop, so we could interpret it as being 'Vary's dragon'.

I believe the mummer's dragon quote in ADWD went like this. (copying from my notebook any errors are my own)

"The glass candles are burning, Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

I think.

Kraken = Victorian

Dark Flame = Red Priest with Victorian or it could be the mage from the citadel

Lion = Tyrion

Griffin = Jon Connington

Sun's Son = Quentyn

Mummer's Dragon = Young Griff / Aegon

The fact that the 'Sun's Son' doesn't use the individual device (Kraken, Lion, Griffin) of the individual but that of his father. And, that both the sun's son and the mummer's dragon were both potential suitors says something. (Just not sure what.)

[nikkodemus]

I don't think it's possible to literally slay a lie.

Well, if you want to argue that Aegon isn't the mummer's dragon, then that's fine. But people here are arguing that Aegon is both the mummer's dragon and the real Aegon, which is very difficult to do given the "slayer of lies" prophecy.

Not an actual intangible lie, obviously. Not that literal. There's a part in one of the books or the other where Mel talks about the other being a Lord of lies and I'm just saying, that there's going to be a dragon fight at the wall, that could possibly be with an actual "fake" dragon, not meaning an imaginary dragon, just a dragon different to the "fire made flesh dragon", which is somehow an unnatural corruption by the Other, like how the wights are a corruption of humans. Like fake humans. Highlighted by the different spin Tormund puts on it when he describes killing his son. His son-but-not- son. That kind of "lie".

1.Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow.

2.A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd.

3.From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire.... mother of dragons, slayer of lies...

It's more of a grammar point, but if all of the above are related to 'slayer of lies' they should be seperated by a semicolon instead of a full period. It's in one train, but if you follow the pattern of the paragraph, each sentence makes one distinct reference, and the 'mother of dragons, X of Y' that follows each three visions don't seem to be particularly related to the content of the three. Yeah, i know, creative license. GRRM never pays attention to grammar, but I'm just saying, 'Slayer of lies' could refer specifically just to the great stone beast breathing shadow fire, it could refer to the entire three or it could be irrelevant to the three and only concern Dany and some random but important lie she Uncovers. Could be something way, way, unrelated especially in the way that GRRM is distancing her further and further from anything to do with Westeros. Could be something to do with the Doom and the Maesters. They seem to have some lies pumping steady. At least it's hinted.

And that gives the Slayer of Lies Prophecy a whole different take. Especially if you take note that the point of this entire series is not who sits on the Iron Throne but what comes out of the War against the Others. Martin spends more and more time each book (except in AFFC) developing the Rhollor/Other antagonism. And the key players for that war, while the central governance in Kings landing goes to shit. There's no one to be conquered at the end of dance. King's landing is just the distracting subplot.

Mummer's dragon opts:

1. a real dragon/Targ owned/hatched/brought up/sponsored by a mummer (if you take the mummer as a normal guy, who just happen to make a living by being a mummer) which wouldn't be fake at all,

2. or the other way where you'd think that a mummer's dragon is just as fake as all the other props that belong to the mummer that he uses in his performance (as in - "stage hand's, finish setting up Mr. Mummer's wooden dragon"). A evil over-the-wall dragon, or a pretender Targ.

3.And a dragon in a mummer's show could be just as real as the sow or the dog, and be just trained to perform to his master's will.

Option 2, with a fake Targ won't make sense as a viable plot option 5 books into a seven book series, he could work in a evil/fake dragon part probably, but he wasted too much time in ADWD I think talking about food and crap. Just enough time for the AA plot arc i think.

Option 3 makes sense, but that would involve bring Varys/Illyrio into the story and I think somewhere that GRRM said he's not doing more new POVs for TWOW. Conington seems like a stand-up guy. To do the puppet king again after Robert and Tommen and Robin up in Vale would be redundant.

Option 1 is the best way for martin to proceed which would take all the focus off the mummer and be more about the dragon. Not a big deal.

All of this, just my opinion, but it's just really clear in my head that YG is the real thing. It was the Crowing moment of cool for the book and possibly the series the way he just jumps into the action with not one dragon, no all-knowing dwarf, just a sell-sword company, Connington and hope for Dorne. If Martin's still running decoys by a book 5, he's headed for a Dethroning Moment of Suck.

[cteresa]

It's more of a grammar point, but if all of the above are related to 'slayer of lies' they should be seperated by a semicolon instead of a full period. It's in one train, but if you follow the pattern of the paragraph, each sentence makes one distinct reference, and the 'mother of dragons, X of Y' that follows each three visions don't seem to be particularly related to the content of the three. Yeah, i know, creative license.

Check the book itself. Page 530, US hc. The visions are clearly grouped in groups of 3, set separately by multiple dots and italics. I think your interpretation is sophistry.

[Dragonfish]

Not an actual intangible lie, obviously. Not that literal. There's a part in one of the books or the other where Mel talks about the other being a Lord of lies and I'm just saying, that there's going to be a dragon fight at the wall, that could possibly be with an actual "fake" dragon, not meaning an imaginary dragon, just a dragon different to the "fire made flesh dragon", which is somehow an unnatural corruption by the Other, like how the wights are a corruption of humans. Like fake humans. Highlighted by the different spin Tormund puts on it when he describes killing his son. His son-but-not- son. That kind of "lie".

The mummer's dragon is clearly a person, given that Quaithe groups him alongside all the other people traveling to Dany. Also, most prophecies are figurative, and until I see a reason to think otherwise, I"m going to assume that the "mummer's dragon" vision is something figurative as well.

It's more of a grammar point, but if all of the above are related to 'slayer of lies' they should be seperated by a semicolon instead of a full period. It's in one train, but if you follow the pattern of the paragraph, each sentence makes one distinct reference, and the 'mother of dragons, X of Y' that follows each three visions don't seem to be particularly related to the content of the three. Yeah, i know, creative license. GRRM never pays attention to grammar, but I'm just saying, 'Slayer of lies' could refer specifically just to the great stone beast breathing shadow fire, it could refer to the entire three or it could be irrelevant to the three and only concern Dany and some random but important lie she Uncovers. Could be something way, way, unrelated especially in the way that GRRM is distancing her further and further from anything to do with Westeros. Could be something to do with the Doom and the Maesters. They seem to have some lies pumping steady. At least it's hinted.

I think if you look at the context of the quote, it's quite clear that the "slayer of lies" line is referring to the three images that just preceded it.

[Ran]

Dragonfish,

You have blown my mind. Maybe years ago people pointed that slayer of lies thing associates with the preceeding visions, but I completely forgot it, anyways. I noticed our prophecies page even drops all of those remarks, so that's going to get some heavy revision.

I am now absolutely sure that Aegon's not Rhaegar's son. Kudos!

[BrainFireBob]

Illyrio/Varys conspiring to bring a non-Targaryen relative to the throne? Interesting theory. Some problems

1. At least Illyrio in the infamous Varys-Illyrio conversation is convinced that Dany will invade eventually (but not right now) with the help of Drogo. He asks Varys to delay the civil war because of this. What YG would gain from an Drogo/Dany invasion is unclear and there is plenty of potential negatives such as the ravaging Dothraki making people antagonistic to Targaryen pretenders.

2. Varys promises to delay but in fact seems to do everything he can to fuel the suspicions of the Starks against the Lannisters and thus start the civil war. Speaks against Varys really supporting Illyrio.

3. Why would Varys undermine Aerys's regime by making Aerys paranoid? That Varys at this stage could foresee that Aegon would be killed in such a way that no identification could be made, as well as Rhaegar being killed, seems extremely far-fetched.

4. Why is Varys hiding the threat of the Others from the small council? That is a potential gigantic world-ending invasion for whoever takes the throne and better opposed as early as possible.

5. Why is Varys saving some of Robert's bastards?

1) Builds the love of the commons. Dany/Viserys bring barbarians to plunder Westeros. Aegon brings men to drive them off and "save" the kingdom.

To make sure the Dothraki are effective, the Great Houses must not be united, else the Dothraki would not have a chance (Unrivalled on the plains, without engineers they would be stymied by the fortifications and terrain of Westeros. The Mongols were more sophisticated).

2) Varys tries to keep the tension alive, but is trying to stop the spark that will setoff the war until they are ready.

3) If we accept that Aerys had prophetic dreams and Varys did not anticipate the effect his efforts would have, this makes sense.

4) Varys may have unknown of the Others since he was cut; this may be part of the overall plan. If they know of a common enemy, they unit. See point 1 regarding the need for division to allow the Dothraki to be effective, so Aegon can be the great uniter and savior.

5) Varys is preserving heirs to all the great houses to allow Aegon to have a faction that fills the existing power structure. Tyrek Lannister, disappeared, has his name not tarnished by any Lannister deeds but can step forward to claim the loyalty of the Rock. Similarly, Robert's bastards (which Renly lacks and Stannis has only Shireen) are potential claimants to the Stormlands- without needing proof-positive testing, Gendry in particular is Robert reborn.

In fact, preserving Tyrion for Dany feeds point 1. Varys lets Dany do the work but makes her a terror to the common people, and Aegon their savior.

[cteresa]

You have blown my mind. Maybe years ago people pointed that slayer of lies thing associates with the preceeding visions, but I completely forgot it, anyways. I noticed our prophecies page even drops all of those remarks, so that's going to get some heavy revision.

If you are going to add things, there is one more prophecy in that scene, which nobody seemed to have paid much attention explicitly, but which was I just very surprised to reread - right at the end, there is a scene with slaves calling Dany Mother, and Dany wanting to give herself to them, even at costs to her, and she is rescued by Drogon attacking her and waking her from the transe starting a fire (Which destroys the undying. Possibly the fire for death, or maybe the fire in the arena is the fire for death). Yeah. It was written right there on ACOK already.

[Datepalm]

:stunned: Why did I never think to read it that way? Huh.

I was googling about for the text of the prophecy, since ACOK is loaned out someplace (I think its the kind of loaned that equals "not ever getting back" at this point, though. Hrm,) and found someone at Kevin's Watch making the same point, wrt ot the husbands as well -

Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars. A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly. A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness... mother of dragons, bride of fire...

- so I buy his conclusion, and am now convinced the grey lipped corpse is the second husband/lover/whatever's going on there. (I suppose if one simply despises the idea of Jon/Dany, this is the time to look away.) Connigton therefore seems like a stretch, considering the whole gay thing.

Victarion seems like the easiest option. Or maybe Tyrion did pick up greyscale. Or maybe it is Jon (dead now!), and the flower in the wall is someone else. Hm. (It would seem to not be Daario or Hizdahr though.)

[cteresa]

- so I buy his conclusion, and am now convinced the grey lipped corpse is the second husband/lover/whatever's going on there. (I suppose if one simply despises the idea of Jon/Dany, this is the time to look away.) Connigton therefore seems like a stretch, considering the whole gay thing.

Victarion seems like the easiest option. Or maybe Tyrion did pick up greyscale. Or maybe it is Jon (dead now!), and the flower in the wall is someone else. Hm. (It would seem to not be Daario or Hizdahr though.)

Or all the prophecies of the bride of fire section are also related to fire. Her mount to bed, and I also wondered if these are not related to the other mounts. Or the other fires she has to light.

[Jon AS]

Dragonfish,

You have blown my mind. Maybe years ago people pointed that slayer of lies thing associates with the preceeding visions, but I completely forgot it, anyways. I noticed our prophecies page even drops all of those remarks, so that's going to get some heavy revision.

I am now absolutely sure that Aegon's not Rhaegar's son. Kudos!

That's not the established interpretation of that whole scene? To think that all these years I could have made a great impression with that!

If you are going to add things, there is one more prophecy in that scene, which nobody seemed to have paid much attention explicitly, but which was I just very surprised to reread - right at the end, there is a scene with slaves calling Dany Mother, and Dany wanting to give herself to them, even at costs to her, and she is rescued by Drogon attacking her and waking her from the transe starting a fire (Which destroys the undying. Possibly the fire for death, or maybe the fire in the arena is the fire for death). Yeah. It was written right there on ACOK already.

That one doesn't quite read like a prophecy after the "Mother!" cries, because it turns into the Undying trying to do whatever they tried, but the parallels are interesting.

[Dragonfish]

Dragonfish,

You have blown my mind. Maybe years ago people pointed that slayer of lies thing associates with the preceeding visions, but I completely forgot it, anyways. I noticed our prophecies page even drops all of those remarks, so that's going to get some heavy revision.

I am now absolutely sure that Aegon's not Rhaegar's son. Kudos!

Thanks, though I can't quite claim credit for this interpretation, as I also got it from someone on the boards (I sort of assumed it was the board consensus). Incidentally, I seem to remember that all the other "mother of dragons" lines may also refer to the images that precede them, including the line "bride of fire", as Datepalm pointed out. I wish I had my copy of ACoK to verify, but I have loaned it out to my brother, which means I will never see it again.

[cteresa]

That's not the established interpretation of that whole scene? To think that all these years I could have made a great impression with that!

I was saying that for years. Oh well.

That one doesn't quite read like a prophecy after the "Mother!" cries, because it turns into the Undying trying to do whatever they tried, but the parallels are interesting.

Not a prophecy from the Undying, no, because Drogon´s actions are outside of it. But maybe we can call it foreshadowing? Because the parallelism, I reread it just a few days ago and practically ignore those last scenes, and then WTF, it was there already. Ah, the scene just befoe that seems Dothraki related and looked unlikely to came true anytime soon, but I think it highly likely to be coming in tWoW now.

[Toe]

1) Builds the love of the commons. Dany/Viserys bring barbarians to plunder Westeros. Aegon brings men to drive them off and "save" the kingdom.

To make sure the Dothraki are effective, the Great Houses must not be united, else the Dothraki would not have a chance (Unrivalled on the plains, without engineers they would be stymied by the fortifications and terrain of Westeros. The Mongols were more sophisticated).

2) Varys tries to keep the tension alive, but is trying to stop the spark that will setoff the war until they are ready.

3) If we accept that Aerys had prophetic dreams and Varys did not anticipate the effect his efforts would have, this makes sense.

4) Varys may have unknown of the Others since he was cut; this may be part of the overall plan. If they know of a common enemy, they unit. See point 1 regarding the need for division to allow the Dothraki to be effective, so Aegon can be the great uniter and savior.

5) Varys is preserving heirs to all the great houses to allow Aegon to have a faction that fills the existing power structure. Tyrek Lannister, disappeared, has his name not tarnished by any Lannister deeds but can step forward to claim the loyalty of the Rock. Similarly, Robert's bastards (which Renly lacks and Stannis has only Shireen) are potential claimants to the Stormlands- without needing proof-positive testing, Gendry in particular is Robert reborn.

In fact, preserving Tyrion for Dany feeds point 1. Varys lets Dany do the work but makes her a terror to the common people, and Aegon their savior.

1. I fail to see how YG is going to be able to defeat Dany/Drogo if the armies of Westeros fail to do so. The Golden Company have 10,000 men. That is much less than any of the great houses in Westeros have. On the other hand, if Dany/Drogo are defeated by Westeros armies, then both the nobility and the common people are likely to be highly antagonistic to further Targaryen pretenders after having encountered the pillaging Dothraki.

2.Varys acts contrary to what he says to Illyrio. Varys says he will do what he can to stop the civil war for now. Instead, Varys seems to do everything he can to fuel Edward's suspicions of the Lannisters and thus promote the civil war, claiming that the Lannisters planned to kill Robert during the tourney, going along with Petyr's lie regarding the dagger, stating to Eddard that Jon Arryn was killed for asking questions, support Eddard's theory that the Lannisters helped kill Robert during the hunt, and rejects Illyrio's suggestion that they should assassinate Eddard in order to buy time. See no evidence that Varys is trying to stop any sparks.

3. ? Again, how could Varys know that making Aerys paranoid would kill Rhaegar and kill Aegon in such a way to make him unrecognizable?

4. Makes little sense that the people would unite with a pretender with only a weak army against the Others. Seems more likely they would unite with someone stronger militarily (that is, everyone else). On the other hand, the Others are gigantic threat also to YG if he wins so better to stop them early. Makes little sense for Varys to hide their existence.

5. Robert bastard's are above all potential throne pretenders if legitimized. It should be a priority for Varys to kill them. Not to save them.

[cteresa]

Thanks, though I can't quite claim credit for this interpretation, as I also got it from someone on the boards (I sort of assumed it was the board consensus). Incidentally, I seem to remember that all the other "mother of dragons" lines may also refer to the images that precede them, including the line "bride of fire", as Datepalm pointed out. I wish I had my copy of ACoK to verify, but I have loaned it out to my brother, which means I will never see it again.

I thought it was board consensus by now as well. And there are some quotes here, with some interpretations as well,mine on that page, some other ones on previous pages (but I like mine better :P and they are complete, I think everything on the scene is important)

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/53294-adwd-spoilers-the-undying-prophecy-and-adwd/page__st__40

[Winterborn]

I'm strongly convinced that Young Griff/Aegon is actually Illyrio's son.

First it was Illyrio swearing on the hands of Serra after apologizing for missing the wedding. Then the ginger candies.

The Pentoshi cheesemonger is obviously saying goodbye to his son.

Did anyone else cry manly tears? ;_;

I know I did.

Maybe Illyrio isn't so bad. He just wants the best for his kid - the seven kingdoms of Westeros, the great dynasty founded by Aegon the Conqueror, and a smokin' hot Dragon Queen to keep him warm at night.

Illyrio: World's Best Dad.