[ADwD Spoilers] Varys

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Also, at the time that Ned Stark was bearing down on King's Landing after the Battle at the Trident, Aerys seemed pretty set on setting King's Landing aflame and letting all who dwelt within burn alive. So Varys urging Aerys to keep the gates closed doesn't really seem like a move designed to preserve Targaryen rule.

[Lord Varys]

As of yet we don't have proof that a Great Council has the legal authority to force the king to abdicate. And I very much doubt that.

If Varys wasn't ready to execute his long-term plan, then do we assume that he (supposedly) tried to destabilize the Targaryen dynasty by feeding Aerys's paranoia and putting Rhaegar and Aerys against each other? If Varys was not ready, it would have made no sense to try to create a civil war/unrest...

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

As of yet we don't have proof that a Great Council has the legal authority to force the king to abdicate. And I very much doubt that.

Rhaegar seemed to think that a Great Council would have that authority.

If Varys wasn't ready to execute his long-term plan, then do we assume that he (supposedly) tried to destabilize the Targaryen dynasty by feeding Aerys's paranoia and putting Rhaegar and Aerys against each other? If Varys was not ready, it would have made no sense to try to create a civil war/unrest...

...which would suggest that your theory is incomplete, no?

[Faint]

The issue with the pyromancers is interesting in itself since, presumably, unless Varys was not as powerful as he is now, he could have stopped Aerys’ mad plan from ever occurring. Yet, if Jaime is to be believed, he took no steps to do so. I don’t know what to make of that; should we assume Varys wanted King’s Landing burned to the ground rather than let the Lannister army take it? And, if so, why?

Analyzing this issue in reverse does not bring much clarity. While his efforts to poison Aerys’ mind was doing much to bring down the latter’s rule, up until the Lyanna incident this was only ever going to result in Rhaegar assuming control of the realm. And, from all indications, this would have only strengthened the Targaryens since Rhaegar was altogether more competent than his father (and unlikely to be swayed by Varys to the same degree).

I’m not quite sure where ‘Aegon Targaryen’ fits into this equation either because, judging by Tyrion’s perspective, he wasn’t even born yet. Again, this seems an adaptation to a previous plan rather than the continuation of a set plan.

Perhaps it’s as simple as this:

• Varys initially wanted to end Targaryen rule (perhaps in revenge because he is a Blackfyre himself).
  
• In order to accomplish his goal, he poisoned Arys’ mind while setting him against his son.
  
• Rhaegar threw him a curve ball with the Lyanna ‘kidnapping’ and set things in motion in a way unanticipated by Varys.
  
• Varys did not want Arys to open the gate to the Lannister army not out of any sense of loyalty but simply as an act of self-preservation given how Tywin Lannister might be disposed to him.
  
• Then ‘Aegon Targaryen’ was born and Varys got a new idea of how to achieve ultimate revenge against the Targaryens.
  

Either way, I don’t think there is any master plan here to decipher. If I believe anything strongly it is that Varys never had the long-range goal of replacing the Targaryens with the Blackfyres when he initially came to King’s Landing. I think that came later.

That said, I think we are looking at three different issues here: (1) Varys’ motivations when he originally came to King’s Landing; (2) Varys’ motivations during Robert’s Rebellion; and (3) Vary’s motivations after Robert’s Rebellion.

[Lord Varys]

Rhaegar said to Jaime that he would do something about Aerys after he returned from the Trident. That would have been easy. Not only was Rhaegar the beloved Crown Prince, he would have been the savior of the Targaryen dynasty and the leader of a loyal army. It would have been within his power to seize the Iron Throne. But back at the Tourney at Harrenhal things were differently.