[Pre-ADwD Spoilers] Daenerys 3 - Spoilers for ADWD

[Mezeh]

Basically I agree with you except of the part about Tyrion and Selmy. Tyrion learned about Varys Illirio friendship form their childhood as Illirio made no effort to hide his with Varys connection. So Tyrion obviously should realize that it was Varys plan to send him to Dany. About Selmy it is more difficult because be didn’t sow him on the way. So it could be both that he was unaware of Varys involvement and well aware about it too. Yet he decided to go to Dany himself and he probably knew about Illirio.

With the rest you are absolutely right. Illirio Varys motivation is complete mystery so far. We have indication from AFFC that they both were involved into pro Targ plot for a long time but why? There is nothing on the surface. The only possible hint is that they both apparently know much more then they speak about. For example Illirio seems to be very confident about three dragon heads. How could be he?

[Lord Varys]

Tyrion learned about Varys Illirio friendship form their childhood as Illirio made no effort to hide his with Varys connection.

Yes, in his second ADwD chapter - at least, after Illyrio's words about the dragon with three heads at the end of the first - Tyrion must begin to see the truth of it. But when he's freed by Varys in the end of ASoS, or, exactly as remembers his last conversation with Varys, he doesn't understand anything:

"Varys had escorted him through the tunnels, but they never spoke until they emerged beside the Blackwater [...]. That was when the dwarf turned to the eunuch and said, "I've killed my father," in the same tone a man might use to say, "I've stubbed my toe." The master of whisperers had been dressed as a begging brother, in a moth-eaten robe of brown roughspun with a cowl that shadowed his smooth fat cheeks and bald round head. "You should not have climbed that ladder," he said reproachfully.

[...] "I killed Shae too," he confessed to Varys.

"You knew what she was."

"I did. But I never knew what he was."

Varys tittered. "And now you do."

I should have killed the eunuch as well. A little more blood on his hands, what would it matter? He could not say what had stayed his dagger. Not gratitude. Varys had saved him from a headsman's sword, but only because Jaime had compelled him. Jaime... no, better not to think of Jaime."

Tyrion believes Varys has rescued him only because of Jaime's intervention. He didn't know or think at that moment that Varys could have an agenda with him, particularily.

Furthermore he appears to see not that Varys actually wished that he would kill his father. Varys's 'And now you do' says that much. Varys himself knew the truth about Tywin, too, of course.

Varys has worked since ACoK to separate and estrange Tyrion from his family. He had fueled Cersei's paranoia (Tyrion wants to kill Joffrey and rule through Tommen) and made him believe, he, who worked for the sake of the smallfolk of King's Landing, was hated and called 'twisted little monkey demon' (as Bywater was by Tyrion himself considered as 'Varys's man', it's possible he said what he was told to say). Furthermore, Varys's spies could have made Tyrion the most unpopular member of the Council easily.

We have indication from AFFC that they both were involved into pro Targ plot for a long time but why?

You think about Doran Martell's plans? We have no indication that there is a connection between Doran, Varys/Illyrio and the Archon of Tyrosh (who plotted with Doran to let Arianne meet with Viserys in his house). It's possible, but we have no proof of it. In any case: Varys should know about Doran's mind and feelings, and consider him a possible ally, even if he and Illyrio had no part in Doran's schemes.

The only possible hint is that they both apparently know much more then they speak about.

Varys motivation could be two things. First his knowledge about the PWWP-/AA-prophecy, and the role someone with Targaryen blood would play to save the world. So, to save the world you must first save House Targaryen till the PWWP is come. Two, he himself could have dragon blood. It would explain why he was chosen by that mage who cut him (he could have taken any orphan boy from the streets, instead of paying Varys's owner), for dragon blood has special magical qualities, as far as we know.

But why Illyrio should be a Targaryen supporter, I can't say. The man has everything. He laughed about Viserys's offer to make him Lord of Storm's End, Casterly Rock or Master of Coin. Furthermore, he looks down on the Westerosi barbarians and there strange traditions, as we see in Tyrion's chapter in ADwD. So it's no question of power or politics (furthermore, Illyrio could gain influence under any King in King's Landing through Varys).

But there's one thing that's odd. Illyrio Mopatis is introduced in the very first chapter of Daenerys in AGoT as man who would sell any friend or ally to the highest bider. But actually, there's no indication that he had ever betrayed either Viserys or Daenerys. Maybe he hides his true loyalty behind a veil of treachery, but why is still a mystery. Only that I think Varys and Illyrio are driven by the same purpose and have the same goals.

[Barba]

So Tyrion obviously should realize that it was Varys plan to send him to Dany. About Selmy it is more difficult because be didn’t sow him on the way. So it could be both that he was unaware of Varys involvement and well aware about it too. Yet he decided to go to Dany himself and he probably knew about Illirio.

Tyrion never knew about Dany. How should he get that. In his first DWD chapter, he is wondering weather to join stannis of crown Myrcella. He knows about Tyrion-Illyrio connection, but has no idea they are helping Dany.

IIRC Selmy said that his entire life he wants to serve. After he was dismissed from KG, he probably decided to join Dany on his own. After all, he swore to protect Targaryen familly while Aerys was alive, so after he was 'released' of new vows, he followed the old ones. Varys, IMO, didn't have to do anything with Selmy, except to tell him that there are still Targaryens that need his protection. The rest (selmy joining Dany) is consequence of what Selmy is. I'm sure that selmy would look for Dany even if she was just poor girl without Dragons, just because he swore to protect Targs.

[Lord Varys]

Varys arranged Selmy's dismissal from the Kingsguard. It was him who said Cersei that he would be the perfect scapegoat Joffrey wants (we hear of this in the first Tyrion chapter of ACoK - Cersei herself admits it). And thinking about Varys it's completely clear that he knows Selmy good enough to know that he would search the last surviving member of House Targaryen.

But Selmy himself has no indication of Varys's involvement in the affair or his true allegiance. Of course he knows about Illyrio. He travels to him and from Pentos to Qarth, but he does that without help from Varys (at least that's what I think, as Selmy uses Mormont's correspondence with Varys to accuse him of treason - something he would not do, if he had known that Varys himself is loyal to House Targaryen). But that Viserys and Daenerys Targaryen lived with Illyrio Mopatis was known in King's Landing. So Selmy chose to visit the man who could help him to find his queen.

[Lyanna Stark-Targaryen]

enough with Dany being a mini sexpot already!

[Gil-galad]

Was thinking about the pale mare, the only one I couldn't think of no one. Then I thought about who would meet Dany. Among them is the golden company thus Bittersteel and I think to remember that his crest had something to do with a horse breathing fire. Only an idea.

[Jon Blackfyre]

I just posted the below post on the Tyrion 2 thread before coming here and reading the first 4 or so pages of this thread. I hadn't ever read this thread before, but the ideas of who the pale mare, crow and kraken, lion and griffon, sun's son and mummer's dragon and the perfumed senscheal got me thinking that my recent Tyrion 2 post had some legs if I fleshed it out in light of these ideas. First read the Tyrion 2 post below, then I will try and back it up with ideas of who is who.

Tyrion 2 PostQUOTE(Daralys @ Jan 24 2007, 01.44)

"Does anyone else see this as a revelation of Varys's intentions? Doesn't it sound like Varys helped Aerys lose the kingdom by making him so paranoid that he began killing his nobles? It's not like the nobles would have just let this keep going and going; eventually one of them would have rebelled, which is what Jon Arryn did. So, the Targaryens have lost the kingdom, but Varys, through Illyrio, is helping them get it back, but of course there will be rich rewards for Illyrio (and maybe Verys) once it's all done. Sounds exactly like the "Varys spied on small time thieves and stole their loot. Illyrio worked out arrangements with the victimes to recover their loot for a price" except that it's on a much larger scale."

Damn good catch I say. The parrallel there is spot on, and its more than likely that Varys and Illyrio would have graduated to bigger "thieves" with "larger" loot at this point in their lives.

This could add to any theory about who Young Griff is as well. If he is a fake Aegon then its just a smaller part of the larger sceme. This is just another trick of the trade if you will. "Oh, you lost your loot? I have this guy that can help you find your loot." Only this time they up the probablity of remaining in their "clients" good graces by offering her more than just a sellsword company, but a blood relative and possible general for her invasion, or husband to share the throne. Surely, Young Griff would like this idea if he was a fake who got to become a king or rider of a dragon.

If he is the real Aegon then he is another member of the Targ family they were planning to extort property and money from, but as Dany is the top candidate to reclaim Westeros at the moment, they want to see them join up because Aegon is already fooled. This also ties in with why it may not have mattered much to Illyrio that Viserys died, he used him as he could for a time but Viserys proved mad and was expendable due to the other options of Dany and Aegon.

If he has nothing to do with Aegon and they aren't trying to pawn him off as a fake then he's just another knight, along with his father and their company, Illyrio is planning on useing to help Dany retake the thrown. Then it wouldn't matter how fast they got to Dany, as Illyrio was saying in the foriegn language argument with Ser Duck and Haldon. The Golden Company and Griff's company can both help Dany, just as the Storm Crows and the Second Sons are already doing. This seems to be a pretty likely thing for Illyrio and Varys to be pushing for to me, because I don't think they are the types to underestimate the force needed to conquer Westeros, and they want to be sure of victory as well. Or else they don't get paid.

Either way I love the idea of The Golden Company and Griffs Company joining Dany and giving her even more knights to help in her invasion...along with the possiblity of the Martells joining her through Quentyn and the Greyjoys through Victarion/Euron. Combine that with her Dothraki, the Unsullied and the knights that Barristan is training and she has an awesome number of troops. Add Tyrion and his knowledge of dragons and skill with saddles and Dany's army is the biggest and baddest force out there at the moment, plus she controls the only air force on the planet. If all these ties, or even some of them come about in Dance then the invasion doesn't need to be so far off, if not end Dance with Dragons, it could be early on in Winds of Winter.

Total speculation, but its a fun thought to me.

Okay, now my ideas:

I'll start with the pale mare seeing as how in Qaithe's prophecy she comes first. My initial reaction was this is a Blackfyre with the Golden Company...and I see many others have thought this too. This is the one that confused me the most, but maybe the pale mare is a refernce to Viserion. If the pale mare is supposed to be meant as a mount for Dany instead of a person's sigil then Viserion could be the first of the dragons that lets Dany ride "her." I know that is iffy, but so is every theory about what may mean what. Other chances are it is a person, and after she comes the others will come, so let me get to them now.

The crow and the kraken. This is where things start getting dependant on when this Qaithe meeting happens compared to the events of AFFC. If the crow is meant to be Aemon when he realizes that Dany is who he thinks she is in his fever dreams before he dies, then maybe it could mean he was coming to her. It doesn't mean he makes it to her, just that he is coming, he just happens to loose his mind and die along the way. Or the more popular option that Euron is the crow and its his message that comes with the Kraken, obviously Victarion.

The lion and the griffon are easy considering the Tyrion chapters. Tyrion and the Griffs, plain and simple.

The sun's son and the mummer's dragon are like many people belive they are; Quentyn Martell and the Golden Company leader/Blackfyre or Bittersteel descendant. The sun's son is unmistakable, but the mummer's dragon is cloudy. The most likely answer is a pretend dragon..ie Blackfyre/Bittersteel Pretender. It just seems to fit, and I don't know if there is proff that Quentyn is with the Golden Company, but it is said they always dreamed of home under Bittersteel, and a Dornish prince showing up saying lets go tell Dany we want to help her conquer your "homeland" might be reason they break their contract and word that is as good as gold.

The perfumed senscheal to be wary of to me is Varys. With his "hatred" of majic the dragons may be more of a point of revulsion than beauty to him. Even without his hatred of the arcane he is a shady character. And if Illyrio and Varys are just playing the old "rob the theif's loot and sell it back game" that I went over in the above post then thats a good reason NOT to trust him.

The only thing that bothers me is we know Marwyn is on his way over that direction...or at least we think we know he is. I don't see him as any of the others named in the prophecy so what is his role? Anyway, those are my thoughts, and I'm glad I got them out there to be shot down.

[Mezeh]

Illirio and Varys motivation is one of the biggest mysteries right now. They surely share the goal and Illirio obviously didn’t lie about Varys and him been friend from chieldhood. Yet Illirio claimed that he joined the cause only because of Varys. Was this a lie? We don’t know. Illirio is already has everything that he wishes for. He don’t want to become a Westeros lord and he has more then enough money for his need. He is a man of power also. What could he gain from joining the plot? Varys is even more mystery. He never seemed to be greedy for money and he had power already.

IMHO they both have some connections we are not yet aware about. Maybe connections with Targ family, maybe something else. Somebody who helped them both to raise in the world?

Now Aegon. I see no reason why Varys and Illirio would play a fake dragon. If they are aware about the prophecy and they most probably are they should realize the danger of the game. On the other side real Aegon should be a real help to their cause if they want to restore Targaryen dynasty. Viserys was too week twisted and unpopular to become a king and Dany was a little girl with unknown promise. So they should have another candidate. The son of Rhaegar definitely would be the best particularly if he was raised under their influence. Remember Illirio showed no interest in Viserys and Dany until Dany’s marriage was brokered. And yet it seems that they were involved into the plot for a long time. And Jon Connington (Grif) presence. Illirio admit that he knows him for a very long time. Connington faked his death obviously to completely avoid any notice? Why? He perfectly fit for Aegon’s mentor if the last survived and in this case his “death†is easily explained. Would he raise a fake Aegon? Not likely, only if he was deceived and this is not likely either. Remember he was not juts a friend of Rhaegar but dear friend.

Another mystery that I already mentioned is why Grif and Illirio don’t share concern about the GC while they obviously share the information? Grif could be right after all he is exile form Westeros like everybody in GC and he should understand them better. Yet we could only speculate about his reasons right now.

And “three heads†of course. If Young Gris is Aegon then Illirio confidence in understandable he only wan’t to know “if the boy is readyâ€. But who is the last head?

[Gil-galad]

Was rereading the sworn sword. Bittersteels banner is a horse breathing fire. Don't recall if it's a pale mare, but since the golden company (founded by Bittersteel) is heading towards Dany it may fit.

[urizen]

Was rereading the sworn sword. Bittersteels banner is a horse breathing fire. Don't recall if it's a pale mare, but since the golden company (founded by Bittersteel) is heading towards Dany it may fit.

Wasn't that a red stallion with black wings? Maybe the current leader is a pale/albino woman?

[Mezeh]

Was rereading the sworn sword. Bittersteels banner is a horse breathing fire. Don't recall if it's a pale mare, but since the golden company (founded by Bittersteel) is heading towards Dany it may fit.

We know a precedent with “pale grif†when personal characteristic were combined with family arms to create a nick. So a albino or just pale skinned Bittersteel female descendant could easily be called “pale mareâ€.

[Gil-galad]

We know a precedent with “pale grif†when personal characteristic were combined with family arms to create a nick. So a albino or just pale skinned Bittersteel female descendant could easily be called “pale mareâ€.

Or simply the banner has a pale mare breathing fire on it, don't recall the exact description and I havn't the books at hand. I always tought that the copper lord (and he dosn't seem pale...) in Danys vision in the house of undying was not her would to be son, but a decendent of one of the bastards of Aegon the Unworthy.

[Barba]

Or simply the banner has a pale mare breathing fire on it, don't recall the exact description and I havn't the books at hand. I always tought that the copper lord (and he dosn't seem pale...) in Danys vision in the house of undying was not her would to be son, but a decendent of one of the bastards of Aegon the Unworthy.

Don't think so. His half-brother Bloodraven was albino, and they hated each other. I doubt his arms are pale mare

[Ran]

I admit to suspecting that Dany's vision was of the leader of the Golden Company, descended from Bittersteel. A fiery stallion wouldn't be that far changed from Bittersteel's own arms. But a pale mare ... I'm not quite sure what to make of that. It _could_ be a reference to a descendent of Bittersteel's who's taken a pale horse as a symbol -- decades have passed since the days of Bittersteel and Bloodraven's rivalry, after all, so it may not have the same resonance.

[Markus]

Quaithe's warning: "The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare. After her will come the others. Crow and kraken, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Remember the undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

If we assume that the Golden Company is coming to Dany then their leader should have been mentioned by Quaithe. Crow, kraken, lion, griffin and sun's son are plausibly accounted for.

Which leaves the mummer's dragon, the undying, the perfumed seneschal and the pale mare. The undying are the undying of Qarth, of course. The perfumed seneschal doesn't sound anything like the leader of a mercenary company and is not directly included in those who "come", perhaps suggesting that he might be there already.

Which leaves the mummer's dragon and the pale mare. Noteworthy is that the pale mare will come before the others. The Golden Company was last under contract with Myr which is certainly nearer to Slaver's Bay than Westeros. In the Tyrion chapter Griff also fears that the Golden Company might be ahead of them.

If one then adds a possible link to Bittersteel's heraldry, the pale mare being connected to the Golden Company, perhaps as their leader, would make sense.

[Mezeh]

I completely agree with Marcus and already brought the same argument in some thread. We could be sure that GC is heading to Dany and we could expect that they will arrive the first. And they for sure were worth mentioning. Then “pale mare†fits much better then “the nummer’s dragon†and all other positions are already taken (except of “crow�)

[urizen]

I completely agree with Marcus and already brought the same argument in some thread. We could be sure that GC is heading to Dany and we could expect that they will arrive the first. And they for sure were worth mentioning. Then “pale mare†fits much better then “the nummer’s dragon†and all other positions are already taken (except of “crow�)

But then who's the Mummers dragon that's comming to Dany? S/he will be comming with Quentyn Martell(The Sun's Son).

As has been mentioned (probably) before, the Bittersteels can be seen as pretend Dragons i.e a mummers dragon.

[Markus]

It has been suggested by some that Quaithe is citing prophecy when she speaks to Dany in this chapter. However, I don't think this is the most likely interpretation. Note that she begins her message with telling that the glass candles are burning. As we see with Marwyn knowing of Sam the glass candles serve to see events which happen far away. They may even allow to see into the future like the fires of the Red Priests. So there need not be any prophecy involved for Quaithe to have certain knowledge relevant to Dany.

Some comments about some of the people who are speculated to be among those Quaithe speaks of in her message to Dany:

Varys didn't accompany Tyrion when Tyrion left KL, suggesting that he stayed behind. As GRRM also seems to have said that Varys stayed in KL, it doesn't seem as if he would be among those who will come to Dany -- at least not at the time Quaithe speaks to Dany. If Quaithe's warning doesn't extend to events and persons who will only become relevant to her in later volumes Varys can be excluded as one of the people in the warning.

The same might apply to Illyrio. He doesn't plan on going to Dany as far as we're aware. He would only become a candidate for one of the persons in the message if Dany were to come to him in ADwD, which is admittedly possible.

Another person we know of who is traveling to Dany is Marwyn. But he began his journey at the very end of AFfC, (much) later than the other people who have been plausibly identified as part of Quaithe's message. Including later than Victarion and possibly Euron.

The ironborn had already taken some of the isles near to Oldtown and had tried to sneak into Oldtown two weeks before Marwyn left, so the Iron Fleet could easily already have passed there weeks before. Moreover, Marwyn supposedly travels on a trader with its own schedule and not straight to Slaver's Bay without delay as the ironborn can travel. This would be another reason why Victarion might arrive long before Marwyn. In fact, if ADwD doesn't cover significantly more time than AFfC Marwyn might not come to Dany before the next novel. Which might very well explain why he wouldn't be among those in Quaithe's message. Just like the man whom the Citadel itself will send.

Something similar might apply to Aurane Waters. He leaves even after Marwyn. So if he were to come to Dany he might very well not come to her before the next novel.

Another point to be raised is that we really don't have a good reason to assume that Quentyn Martell has anything to do with the Golden Company. It's something Arianne speculated about but that was when she was ignorant of the true reason for Quentyn's voyage. In fact, if Quentyn has gone to win Dany's hand in marriage and/or offer the spears of Dorne to her, Doran would have had no compelling reason to hire a mercenary company.

With regard to the identity of the crow, while it's not impossible that Quaithe saw Aemon and assumed that he wanted to come to Dany but didn't know that he wouldn't make it, Aemon's identity is as much a dragon or a maester as a crow. And there is no other man of the NW who is known to be on his way to Dany in AFfC. Therefore, I think Euron fits much better for the crow of the message. Crow is part of his byname. Crows are part of his personal heraldry. And he is symbolized as a crow in a vision the Ghost of High Heart had.

[Markus]

Then “pale mare†fits much better then “the nummer’s dragonâ€

I'm not so sure that pale mare fits _much_ better than the mummer's dragon. My preference of it was mostly based on the assumption that the Golden Company would reach Dany before all the other people in Quaithe's message. But I must admit that this is merely an assumption based on the fact that they seemed to be nearest to Dany, and may well turn out to be wrong. In fact, I'm close to having second thoughts about it.

We simply don't know how fast the Golden Company can be with Dany in Meereen. Last we heard the Golden Company was still on its way to Volantis, and we don't know how they plan to travel on from there. I suppose they could plan to take a ship, particularly if Yunkai has hired them and can provide ships. But if they want to bring their entire army to Slaver's Bay they would supposedly need more than just a few ships, and this might take some time.

Whereas Tyrion is apparently going to travel by some river road which might be quite fast if it was built by Old Valyria. And Quentyn Martell had already left Dorne before Oakheart's chapter in AFfC, so he might be close or even ahead of the Golden Company.

This is aggravated by the fact that we know Yunkai has been trying to recruit dothraki, and the dothraki sea is even nearer to Dany than Myr or Volantis where the Golden Company was placed. GRRM has also included several dothraki khals as potential enemies and allies in the appendix, so that it wouldn't exactly be a surprise if one of them would show up. The "pale mare" might therefore refer to a dothraki too. It needn't even be a woman if the "pale mare" of the message refers to his horse, for instance.

As for why the Golden Company might be represented as a "mummer's dragon", perhaps because someone in the Golden Company might claim descent from Bittersteel or some other Targaryen. Perhaps because this person or the person who controls him tries to claim Dany's dragons for himself and Dany has to fight against them.

[Mezeh]

2 Markus.

You are right that by the news the Golden Company is still far from Meereen. Yet the news we learn in AFFC are rather old by the time they have reached Westeros GC could have well advance on their way. In the second Tyrion spoiler chapter Grif seems to be well concerned the GC will reach Meereen first and his concerns should be well based. So it is probable that GC indeed will reach Dany first and it should be mentioned in prophecy since their arrival is clearly an event of great importance.