[Pre-ADwD Spoilers] Daenerys 3 - Spoilers for ADWD

[Markus]

Mezeh,

A need for haste doesn't necessarily mean that Tyrion can't get to Dany before the Golden Company though. One might even suspect that making haste is intended to achieve just that. Who is to say for sure that they won't succeed if this were the case?

Moreover, it's also revealed through sorcery that the Golden Company was still in the Free Cities some time after Tywin was killed, after Tyrion's long voyage to Pentos, and after Tyrion traveling some time with Illyrio. Quentyn Martell seems to have left Dorne before Tywin died so he might well be not far behind Tyrion and the Golden Company if at all.

There is also the fact that Arianne thinks that Quentyn could have been the cause of the Golden Company breaking their contract. For this to make sense Quentyn needs to have left well before she heard the news of the Golden Company. And she would know how long news need to travel from the Free Cities.

In any case, if a dothraki were to come from the dothraki sea he or she could definitively be ahead of them all.

[Mezeh]

Markus,

Exact timing is difficult here. Tyrion’s voyage across the Narrow sea shouldn’t been too long and it seems that he spent just some days with Illirio. We don’t know exactly when Quentyn started for Meereen either. So it is possible that GC will arrive first. Of course some dothraki could come before all of them but then there will be two questions:

Why the “pale mare� Dothraki led by men not by women.

By what name GC was mentioned in the prophecy?

[Markus]

Mezeh,

Of course it's possible that the Golden Company is first. That was my original thought after all. It's just that we really can't tell one way or another at this time.

Why the “pale mare� Dothraki led by men not by women.

Perhaps the dothraki rides a pale mare? Perhaps it's an unusual dothraki woman? Perhaps it's an outcast seeking refuge or to warn Dany of other dothraki? A woman who wants to persuade Dany to go to Vaes Dothrak? This is all (wild) speculation of course. But I'm quite sure GRRM could come up with a reason why a dothraki may be shown as a pale mare and might want to come to Dany.

By what name GC was mentioned in the prophecy?

If it's not the pale mare it's the mummer's dragon as I said before.

[Mezeh]

Markus,

I just agree with all pointes here.

[Mortimer the Vile]

I was speculating about the "Mummer's Dragon" of that prophecy. I think it refers to Arya. Just reread em all from GoT to FFC and whenever I see mummers, I think of Braavos (the Westeros Bloody Mummers are mostly extinct now it seems). Braavos is one of the few places where mummers put on real shows/plays not just do slapstick foolery. The only viewpoint I can recall being in Baavos that might be in a mummer's show would be Arya. She made friends with mummers and they taught her how a hero stands, lines from assorted plays, etc, etc. Even tho she seems to be in with those religious death freaks in the house of B&W she still does odd stuff and may even be ordered to put away her Cats barrow of mussels and be a mummer's dragon next. Who knows?

Why has no one else mentioned Arya as possible mummer dragon? Is everyone basing it being Aurane Waters because he's a bastard of Valryian blood? I don't get it. If anything that would make him a bastard (but still real) dragon not a mummer's dragon.

Even if I still hated Arya it seems to me shes most likely to be the mummer's dragon- if the prophecy refers to a real mummers dragon. She's in Braavos for almost the entire book of FFC and still there at the end, though she is blind.

Dany's vision in the earlier book when burning those blue lip mages she sees a mummers dragon (like in a play). I really can't see any of the other characters in a play as a mummers dragon (except for Tyrion if hes drunk enough -although he seems likely as some dwarf lion or whatever, or possibly Marwyn just because hes so unorthodox but still far more unlikely, or perhaps Quintin or some other nobody). Certainly not Aurane Waters. He would probably rather lose his head than play in a mummer's farce, its much too common for a refined bastard like him.

Thats just my opinion of that "prophecy" thing and its been so long I cant remember what it was anymore.

[Markus]

Mortimer the Vile,

I think it refers to Arya.

A mummer’s dragon has been described as "a cloth dragon on poles" which is used by mummers in their follies, "to give the heroes something to fight."

So Arya wouldn't be a dragon herself in a play if she became a mummer.

[Mortimer the Vile]

Mortimer the Vile,

A mummer’s dragon has been described as "a cloth dragon on poles" which is used by mummers in their follies, "to give the heroes something to fight."

So Arya wouldn't be a dragon herself in a play if she became a mummer.

So whats your point? If Arya was the one making the mummer dragon dance (ie holding the cloth dragon on poles and making it move and stuff like a puppeteer while calling the crowd camel cun_s, then she would be the mummers dragon. Right?

Or if Arya was the "hero" doing her "Water Dance" or whatever its called. Is that where the book gets its name? Arya dancing with paper dragons.

Arya still makes tons more sense as mummers dragon to me than Aurane Waters the bastard dragon. From what Plum and Rennifer Longwaters say there are probably a million bastard dragons by the way.

[Markus]

Mortimer the Vile,

So whats your point? If Arya was the one making the mummer dragon dance (ie holding the cloth dragon on poles and making it move and stuff like a puppeteer while calling the crowd camel cun_s, then she would be the mummers dragon. Right?

Arya would be the mummer or puppeteer in this case. We need a mummer's dragon, though. Note that the mummer and the dragon are not the same. We need a dragon more than a mummer.

Or if Arya was the "hero" doing her "Water Dance" or whatever its called. Is that where the book gets its name? Arya dancing with paper dragons.

Again, we don't need a hero. We need a dragon. Possibly a pretend or real dragon (Targaren) who may be controlled by a mummer, possibly for Dany to fight.

Arya still makes tons more sense as mummers dragon to me than Aurane Waters the bastard dragon. From what Plum and Rennifer Longwaters say there are probably a million bastard dragons by the way.

You exaggerate. There are people with a little dragon blood around yes, but when we dismiss all but the more recent history there are hardly a million. In any case, we can fairly account for Rennifer Longwaters, at least. If his tale is true he would be a descendant of Elaena Targaryen and Alyn Velaryon. He would still be fairly insignificant since he would be a descendant of a bastard who wasn't legitimated.

Arya doesn't make sense to me for the reasons I gave. Moreover, Arya's story line is far ahead in time of the rest of the story. She would probably arrive more than half a year after Tyrion or Quentyn Martell for example, and it seems doubtful that Dany's story in ADwD covers so much more time.

Neither does Aurane Waters make much sense at the moment, supposing that the mummer's dragon comes to Dany in ADwD and that ADwD doesn't last months longer than AFfC. Waters set sail near the end of AFfC's main story line. He would need some time to come to Dany half a world away if he were to go there in the first place.

The theory which might make some sense is that somebody -- perhaps as a member of the Golden Company which was founded by Bittersteel, led by a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre and is made up of exiles and the sons of exiles -- comes to Dany and claims to be a dragon through Bittersteel, or Daemon Blackfyre or some other bastard born Targaryen. Or someone might claim to be Aegon, Rhaegar's son, who has miraculously survived. These dragons would be more significant because all of them might make a claim that the Iron Throne is theirs.

Aegon would have a better claim because he was Rhaegar's son while Dany is merely his sister. And any descendant of Daemon Blackfyre and of Bittersteel or of any of the other legitimated bastards of Aegon the Unworthy might well claim that since Daeron the Good was a bastard in their opinion that the throne belongs to their line, and not to Dany.

These potential claims of descent may or may not be true. There may or may not be somebody pulling the strings in the background.

[Mortimer the Vile]

I don't agree with anything you've said.

And besides, Aurane Waters hasn't done or said anything remotely interesting, hes just another pretty boy. He only got his own ships because Cersi was dumb enough to give em to him just because his looks and buttlicking.

How are you saying Aurane is a MUMMERS dragon?

A mummer is not a bastard and a bastard is not a mummer.

That is where your whole thesis falls apart.

Again, Arya is the only person even remotely associated with mummers. Myrmello the mummer is more likely the mummers dragon than Aurane Waters.

[Markus]

Mortimer the Vile,

I don't agree with anything you've said.

Unless you tell me your reasons I won't understand what is wrong with my reasoning, though.

As for Aurane Waters, I must have missed where I was putting him forward as the mummer's dragon of Dany's vision and Quaithe's message. In fact, I'm quite sure that I objected to him as a candidate.

Though to be fair to those who have put him forward it has to be said that he is closer to being a pretend dragon with his looks than Arya is with holding or building or whatever a cloth dragon on poles. As I said, it would seem we principally need a real or pretend dragon, and that the need for a mummer is subordinate to this.

Edit: On the other hand, symbols and visions are admittedly tricky to interpret sometimes. So I suppose it's possible that the mummer's dragon could symbolize a genuine mummer who is also a dragon of some kind, or even a genuine mummer who has little to do with a dragon except for becoming somebody Dany the hero has to fight against.

In this case I would still be reluctant to say this will be Arya, though. Arya is a wolf or on her way to become a Faceless Woman at the moment. While she may also have something of a mummer -- in particular if she were to become one for real in ADwD -- she would probably still be more of a wolf than a dragon it seems to me.

In any case, if we're looking for a genuine mummer who is symbolized as a mummer's dragon then there is a candidate who has gotten little attention so far: The King of the Mummers. GRRM has suggested that such a character will be in ADwD.

[Daralys]

Mortimer the Vile, you are interpreting this prophecy way too literally. As with the rest of the references, I believe the mummer's dragon is a metaphor. Tyrion isn't really a lion, and Quentyn Martell is definitely not born from the sun. A mummer's dragon is a fake, cloth dragon being controlled by strings. This likely means that it is someone pretending to be a dragon (I believe it's someone with the right looks parading as Aegon, but I'll be the first to admit that there are other possibilities just as likely) who is being controlled by someone behind the scenes (Illyrio?). If you want to interpret "mummer's dragon" in its literal sense, then you should also see the rest of the prophecy in the same way, which means that, instead of getting a bunch of very interesting characters, Dany's soon going to be surrounded by a zoo.

[Benjen]

There is an interesting tidbit in Dany's last SoS chapter that may help to explain one of Quaithe's cryptic warnings to Dany about future visitors. Ghael is speaking to Dany of the plans of the Yunkish Wise Masters to remove Dany from power.

"...envoys have been sent to New Ghis and Volantis to make alliances and hire sellswords. They have even dispatched riders to Vaes Dothrak to bring a khalasar down upon you."

I agree that the pale mare may indeed represent one of the dothraki, though Dany fits the pale mare description better than any other Khal or khalessi I've heard of, with her silver hair and the silver she rides. But we shouldn't forget that the Dosh Khaleen are expecting Dany to return to Vaes Dothrak, which is the rightful place for all widowed khalessi. If the Dosh Khaleen learn from the Yunkish envoy that Dany lives, they may make "a decree" for the Khals to bring Dany back.

[Frog Eater]

The Pale Mare is Definately the Others. In a Bran Chapter in AGOT, Old Nan is telling the story of when the Others marched south on dead pale horses. Therefore, IMO, the pale mare is definately the Others.

[Thoheeks Bili]

Maybe the "mummers Dragon " warning has to do with a play that may take place in the future about her Dragons and that while she is watching this "play" there will be an attempt on her life, thus "beware the mummers dragon" part?

Isn't it fun to try and figure out/ SPECULATE about what is to happen???

I'll just wait for the books to actually reveal what is to happen and not argue and slander with others. lol

Good reading though!

[Benjen]

Frogeater - Now that is a novel idea. I'll have to disagree though.

I think we've seen why the dead horses that the Others ride are pale. From what Sam saw in his first POV chapter, the horse that the Other was riding in that case was covered in frost.

Not to mention that Meereen is comparitively far south, and half a world away from the Wall and northern Westeros. But hey... Winter IS coming.

Thoheeks - it's always good to turn these prophetic visions on their heads and look at them a few different ways. GRRM certainly seems to like misdirecting us (and his characters even more) with portentious dreams and such. The way I read it, it seems like the "mummer's dragon" reference was a label for one the visitors that will be coming to see Dany.

The only literal warning from Quaithe was for Dany to be wary of "the perfumed senechal", which could be many different people (personally betting on Varys).

[Jenna]

Could the "pale mare" be un-Cat?

The pale horse is often referenced as Death's mount, (ie: four horsemen of the Apocalypse) and a mare, being female, could mean a dead woman.

IE: un-Cat

[Mezeh]

Could the "pale mare" be un-Cat?

The pale horse is often referenced as Death's mount, (ie: four horsemen of the Apocalypse) and a mare, being female, could mean a dead woman.

IE: un-Cat

Plainly she couldn’t. It was stated that “pale mare†will come soon before the others. There is no way for un-Cat to do that since she was n the other place and no one in Martin’s world know how to teleport.

[Podric]

My two cents on Quaithe and the prophecy. I'm sure some/all of what I have to say has been speculated on before.

I'm guessing she is communicating with Dany through a glass candle. That would be why if Dany called the guards they would not see Quaithe. I think during AFFC someone says glass candles allow you to talk to someone through dreams.

The Pale Mare - I think it's symbolic for when Dany gets her horse, things start moving forward for her. Does GRRM say anywhere that the Pale Mare is someone other than Dany?

The others - I think this is not in fact the Others from beyond the wall, just the others meaning important people named after that line like crow/kraken/lion etc... It's the [no caps] bit that makes me think not the "Others".

Crow - At first I thought it could be a message from Maester Aemon, since in the two books events are concurrent. The prophecy says someone will come so that rules it out. It's not Sam, and Daeron meets the many-faced god.

Mostly likely Crow's Eye. A slim chance of either Marwyn or a maester sent by the Archmaesters posing as someone from the wall (I don't know why that would be). I'm going with Euron not trusting Victarion and either going himself or sending a representative.

Kraken - Victarion, all the way.

Lion and Griffin - Tyion and some scion of Jon Connington. I'm going to believe Jamie when he says he thinks the Ex-Hand is dead. They seem to have decent intel on the Free Cities goings-on. Perhaps Connington sired some bastard, or had a son we don't know about (or is mentioned and I don't remember). Either way the spoiler chapter of Tyrion makes this seem all wrapped up.

Sun's Son - Quentyn Martell

Mummers Dragon's - Someone of the bastard Targ line, possibly with one of the long lost Valyrian swords belonging to the house that through some process end up being lightbringer (Darkfire, Red Rain...I don't remember the names off hand). I had this wild thought while writing this that she ends up having to kill drogan using one of those swords, and the dragon's blood transforms the sword into Lightbringer. Kind of far out there I know!

Perfumed Seneschal - Varys? That guy (or it?) has so much going on we don't know about...

[Barba]

Mummers Dragon's - Someone of the bastard Targ line, possibly with one of the long lost Valyrian swords belonging to the house that through some process end up being lightbringer (Darkfire, Red Rain...I don't remember the names off hand). I had this wild thought while writing this that she ends up having to kill drogon using one of those swords, and the dragon's blood transforms the sword into Lightbringer. Kind of far out there I know!

I'd like to see it happen

[Mezeh]

Lion and Griffin - Tyion and some scion of Jon Connington. I'm going to believe Jamie when he says he thinks the Ex-Hand is dead. They seem to have decent intel on the Free Cities goings-on. Perhaps Connington sired some bastard, or had a son we don't know about (or is mentioned and I don't remember). Either way the spoiler chapter of Tyrion makes this seem all wrapped up.

Grif is old enough to have a grown son. Jon Connington was called by Selmy “young lord Connington†so it is safe to assume that he was more or the less the same age as his friend Rhaegar. So Grif could not be Jon Connington’s son but by his age he could be Jon Connington himself. As for intelligence in KL did you forget who run it for all these years? Grif connected to Illirio - would Varys reveal his true identity? Besides if Connington faked his death he would do his best to avoid any notice.