Angalin

[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

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A few observations.

The Faith has a vested interest in finding both Cersei and Margaery innocent. Margaery because she is popular and because if she is executed Mace and Tarly will butcher the HS and all his sparrows, which they are already inclined to do on general principle. Cersei because she passed the laws that allowed the Faith to rearm and because she has already been cowed.

Mace is welded to Tommen, not glued. Particularly after Kevan's death, he is basically ruling the realm solo and he is doing it though Tommen. He will need to be forced to be abandon him. Tommen's rule either has to be on the verge of collapsing or to be offered more. He basically has everything, so it has to be the latter.

The ideal situation for Dorne would be Aegon winning with Arianne as his queen and Cersei and Tommen dead, with Myrcela married to Trystane and getting Storm's End. They might just be able to pull it off. At the very least Aegon will need to marry Arianne, otherwise they gain nothing by helping him. I suspect the word Doran is waiting to commit his forces is not a message of Arianne's but news of her marriage to Aegon.

It strikes me that there is very little mention of Margaery herself. If Mace might be unwilling to consider political ramifications and apply brute force, Margaery is not. We have seen her quietly playing her role impecably throughout Feast and building influence on her own. She insists on going through trial to clear her name and may be able to keep her father in line, like reminding him that they cannot afford to offend Dorne by denying Lady Nym her seat. The Tyrells have used as the blunt front to push their demands while the ladies take care of the subtleties. Quite possibly with Mace's complicity. There has yet to be a conflict in which the Tyrell's haven't come out unscathed or on top.

 

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10 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

I suspect the word Doran is waiting to commit his forces is not a message of Arianne's but news of her marriage to Aegon.

Interesting. If theories about Doran being not so green as he's cabbage-looking1 are true, then this would fit exactly with his M.O. - let Arianne think she's taken on more responsibility than she has, see how she handles it, try to gauge her abilities - perhaps while sending along more trusted agents2 to keep an eye on her and give an independent report.

As well as saddle her with Elia Sand, to drive home the point about recklessness and silliness, and perhaps to help her see her previous actions from Doran's perspective. That Doran, he's a crafty one... we hope.

------------------------------------------------

1. As my mother would say.

2. This idea I find interesting: which, if any, are the secret agents in Arianne's party? It's probably not Elia Sand, which leaves... well, you know what, this ain't exactly relevant only to this particular chapter, and this thread is already 44 pages long, so I'll start a new topic. Watch this space!

Edit: here 'tis

Edited by Illyrio Mo'Parties

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6 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

A few observations.

The Faith has a vested interest in finding both Cersei and Margaery innocent. Margaery because she is popular and because if she is executed Mace and Tarly will butcher the HS and all his sparrows, which they are already inclined to do on general principle. Cersei because she passed the laws that allowed the Faith to rearm and because she has already been cowed.

Mace is welded to Tommen, not glued. Particularly after Kevan's death, he is basically ruling the realm solo and he is doing it though Tommen. He will need to be forced to be abandon him. Tommen's rule either has to be on the verge of collapsing or to be offered more. He basically has everything, so it has to be the latter.

The ideal situation for Dorne would be Aegon winning with Arianne as his queen and Cersei and Tommen dead, with Myrcela married to Trystane and getting Storm's End. They might just be able to pull it off. At the very least Aegon will need to marry Arianne, otherwise they gain nothing by helping him. I suspect the word Doran is waiting to commit his forces is not a message of Arianne's but news of her marriage to Aegon.

It strikes me that there is very little mention of Margaery herself. If Mace might be unwilling to consider political ramifications and apply brute force, Margaery is not. We have seen her quietly playing her role impecably throughout Feast and building influence on her own. She insists on going through trial to clear her name and may be able to keep her father in line, like reminding him that they cannot afford to offend Dorne by denying Lady Nym her seat. The Tyrells have used as the blunt front to push their demands while the ladies take care of the subtleties. Quite possibly with Mace's complicity. There has yet to be a conflict in which the Tyrell's haven't come out unscathed or on top.

 

With Quentyn dead, if Arianne is queen of Westeros Trystane becomes Lord of Sunspear and Dorne, so him getting Storms End doesn't make much sense.

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3 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

With Quentyn dead, if Arianne is queen of Westeros Trystane becomes Lord of Sunspear and Dorne, so him getting Storms End doesn't make much sense.

Sorry, I forgot the Rock. If he's married to the Lady of Storm's End and Casterly Rock, the Martels are set up to be one of the most powerfull houses of Westeros in the future.

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Are there any theories which says Arianne is not really Doran and Mellario's daughter? The more I re-read Dorne, the more I wonder if Doran truly cares about Arianne. I know such a theory exists about Quentyn because he was the one whom Doran sent on a dangerous mission with insufficient escort. However, if Doran wanted Arianne to be queen or had great ambitions for her, why did he never teach her to be smarter and more adept at game of thrones? This was Dorne - where they gave more respect, power and responsibilities to women. But Arianne seems less trained in politics than Cersei or Catelyn. Tywin and Hoster were also ambitious fathers, too. Doran only actively starts to prepare Arianne for ruling after the Queenmaker plot.

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Will Arianne actually like Aegon? I mean she was kind of freaked out by  Lysono Maar's Targeryen looks. She actually thinks, its a good thing that she is not marrying Viserys if he looked like that. (Silver and gold hair, eyes pale lilac)

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1 hour ago, Masha said:

Will Arianne actually like Aegon? I mean she was kind of freaked out by  Lysono Maar's Targeryen looks. She actually thinks, its a good thing that she is not marrying Viserys if he looked like that. (Silver and gold hair, eyes pale lilac)

She liked Darkstar though, she doesn't like Lysono because he is feminine, not because of his Valyrian features.

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13 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

She liked Darkstar though, she doesn't like Lysono because he is feminine, not because of his Valyrian features.

Yeah, I think that part was meant to show us that she's still superficial - she liked Darkstar because of his looks, and she thinks she's learned that lesson, but here she is disliking Lysono because of his looks, again judging a book by its cover.

Not the sharpest knife in the drawer, should be pretty easy to manipulate. Doran dun goofed - you'd think after 17 years he could've scrounged up some better agents than his idiot family. Now he's fucked.

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On ‎7‎/‎18‎/‎2016 at 4:11 AM, Hos the Hostage said:

Are there any theories which says Arianne is not really Doran and Mellario's daughter? The more I re-read Dorne, the more I wonder if Doran truly cares about Arianne. I know such a theory exists about Quentyn because he was the one whom Doran sent on a dangerous mission with insufficient escort. However, if Doran wanted Arianne to be queen or had great ambitions for her, why did he never teach her to be smarter and more adept at game of thrones? This was Dorne - where they gave more respect, power and responsibilities to women. But Arianne seems less trained in politics than Cersei or Catelyn. Tywin and Hoster were also ambitious fathers, too. Doran only actively starts to prepare Arianne for ruling after the Queenmaker plot.

I've never heard of such of such a theory, nor do I doubt that she's his daughter.  But, his failure to prepare her for leadership, or keep her in the loop about his plans, is a major error on his part.  He says that he didn't trust her to keep it secret from Tyene, but she's his heir, she needs to know what's going on.  And even if he was justified, there's no excuse for confining her role essentially to party-planning at Sunspear.  How on earth could she expected to run a principality (or serve effectively as Queen of Westeros) if she's largely ignorant of the business of ruling?

 

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Yeah, I think that part was meant to show us that she's still superficial - she liked Darkstar because of his looks, and she thinks she's learned that lesson, but here she is disliking Lysono because of his looks, again judging a book by its cover.

Not the sharpest knife in the drawer, should be pretty easy to manipulate. Doran dun goofed - you'd think after 17 years he could've scrounged up some better agents than his idiot family. Now he's fucked.

Arianne is reasonably intelligent, just woefully badly prepared tor her role.

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5 hours ago, SeanF said:

Arianne is reasonably intelligent, just woefully badly prepared tor her role.

Potato, potahto.

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I'm curious... if there's a Battle of Ice (North) and a Battle of Fire (Meereen) at the beginning of Winds, is Aegon's battle outside Storm's End a Battle of Earth?  I mean, Arianne (that is, the author) does pay A LOT of attention to the flora and fauna in the Stormlands.  

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On ‎12‎.‎08‎.‎2016 at 0:57 PM, SeanF said:

I've never heard of such of such a theory, nor do I doubt that she's his daughter.  But, his failure to prepare her for leadership, or keep her in the loop about his plans, is a major error on his part.  He says that he didn't trust her to keep it secret from Tyene, but she's his heir, she needs to know what's going on.  And even if he was justified, there's no excuse for confining her role essentially to party-planning at Sunspear.  How on earth could she expected to run a principality (or serve effectively as Queen of Westeros) if she's largely ignorant of the business of ruling?

 

Arianne is reasonably intelligent, just woefully badly prepared tor her role.

Doran told Arianne that she would've been more than Viserys' queen consort - she was to be his equal on the Iron Throne. Yet he didn't teach her to rule. That is more than an error on his part. It's stupid, really, really stupid. And if he didn't trust her to keep secrets, he should've at least tried to teach her. But he didn't. As you said: he didn't prepare her for her role as Princess of Dorne, he didn't prepare her for anything else.

In that respect Doran is worse than Tywin Lannister - Tywin didn't teach Cersei anything, either. But at least Tywin told his daughter that he expected her to become queen of Westeros.

It seems Doran lost track of time, lost track of his plans as well. And while he made plans, he never followed through on them. He excpected others to do that for him, and had the gall to blame them if they didn't work as expected.

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26 minutes ago, Tini said:

Doran told Arianne that she would've been more than Viserys' queen consort - she was to be his equal on the Iron Throne. Yet he didn't teach her to rule. That is more than an error on his part. It's stupid, really, really stupid. And if he didn't trust her to keep secrets, he should've at least tried to teach her. But he didn't. As you said: he didn't prepare her for her role as Princess of Dorne, he didn't prepare her for anything else.

In that respect Doran is worse than Tywin Lannister - Tywin didn't teach Cersei anything, either. But at least Tywin told his daughter that he expected her to become queen of Westeros.

It seems Doran lost track of time, lost track of his plans as well. And while he made plans, he never followed through on them. He excpected others to do that for him, and had the gall to blame them if they didn't work as expected.

Where is that stated? As far as I can recall, the only statements that have been made stated that Arianne was to wed Viserys and become his queen, nothing about her becoming equal to him in terms of the power to rule. 

Edited by Rhaenys_Targaryen

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30 minutes ago, Tini said:

Doran told Arianne that she would've been more than Viserys' queen consort - she was to be his equal on the Iron Throne. Yet he didn't teach her to rule. That is more than an error on his part. It's stupid, really, really stupid. And if he didn't trust her to keep secrets, he should've at least tried to teach her. But he didn't. As you said: he didn't prepare her for her role as Princess of Dorne, he didn't prepare her for anything else.

In that respect Doran is worse than Tywin Lannister - Tywin didn't teach Cersei anything, either. But at least Tywin told his daughter that he expected her to become queen of Westeros.

It seems Doran lost track of time, lost track of his plans as well. And while he made plans, he never followed through on them. He excpected others to do that for him, and had the gall to blame them if they didn't work as expected.

Doran only really had two alternatives with Arianne.  Either entrust her with his plans, because his heir needs to know them.  Or, if he was convinced that she was so incapable that she could not be allowed to succeed him, formally disinherit her - although I expect that would have needed the consent of the great houses of Dorne.

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12 hours ago, Isobel Harper said:

I'm curious... if there's a Battle of Ice (North) and a Battle of Fire (Meereen) at the beginning of Winds, is Aegon's battle outside Storm's End a Battle of Earth?  I mean, Arianne (that is, the author) does pay A LOT of attention to the flora and fauna in the Stormlands.  

No, you are confusing the funk band Earth, Wind and Fire with A Song of Ice and Fire. :P

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On 01/12/2016 at 11:10 PM, Tini said:

...he didn't prepare her for her role as Princess of Dorne...

It seems Doran lost track of time, lost track of his plans as well. And while he made plans, he never followed through on them. He excpected others to do that for him, and had the gall to blame them if they didn't work as expected.

I still cling to the hope that there's something more going on with Doran than meets the eye. I'm half-convinced - with some evidence! - that Doran wanted Quentyn to harmlessly waste his time in the Free Cities, and although that involved entrusting Quentyn with a dangerous secret, it didn't involve trusting him with anything Doran thought was really crucial. And it seems to be the case that Doran isn't ever going to rely on Arianne for anything important either.

(Yes, I know that he's sent her to see Aegon, but I think that expedition is totally under Doran's control, and is merely an intelligence gathering and bet-hedging exercise. I mean, he tells her that one raven from her will mean the difference between peace and war, but can we trust him?)

(As an aside: when Doran tells Arianne that Dorne doesn't really have 50,000 spears, do we have any independent confirmation that he's telling the truth? Maybe that's the lie!)

But what possible explanation could there be for Doran not preparing his kids for their political futures? I can only think of crazy reasons:

1. He plans to disinherit them both one day

2. They're not really his kids

3. They're his kids, but he's not really Doran Martell

4. He's Doran Martell, and they're his kids, but he has a secret older sibling whose children are the rightful heirs to Dorne

If all the Dornish story amounts to is, "Doran fucked up", then I think we'll all be pretty disappointed. It's not that "Doran fucked up" is a bad story... but it ought to be a short one. GRRM's devoted a lot of pages to it (and still will), and what's more, he's written it in a way that deliberately promotes mystery. Multiple conflicting POVs, none of which are the actual major player, suggests that said major player has something hidden up his sleeve.

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On 12/2/2016 at 10:38 PM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I still cling to the hope that there's something more going on with Doran than meets the eye. I'm half-convinced - with some evidence! - that Doran wanted Quentyn to harmlessly waste his time in the Free Cities, and although that involved entrusting Quentyn with a dangerous secret, it didn't involve trusting him with anything Doran thought was really crucial. And it seems to be the case that Doran isn't ever going to rely on Arianne for anything important either.

(Yes, I know that he's sent her to see Aegon, but I think that expedition is totally under Doran's control, and is merely an intelligence gathering and bet-hedging exercise. I mean, he tells her that one raven from her will mean the difference between peace and war, but can we trust him?)

(As an aside: when Doran tells Arianne that Dorne doesn't really have 50,000 spears, do we have any independent confirmation that he's telling the truth? Maybe that's the lie!)

But what possible explanation could there be for Doran not preparing his kids for their political futures? I can only think of crazy reasons:

1. He plans to disinherit them both one day

2. They're not really his kids

3. They're his kids, but he's not really Doran Martell

4. He's Doran Martell, and they're his kids, but he has a secret older sibling whose children are the rightful heirs to Dorne

If all the Dornish story amounts to is, "Doran fucked up", then I think we'll all be pretty disappointed. It's not that "Doran fucked up" is a bad story... but it ought to be a short one. GRRM's devoted a lot of pages to it (and still will), and what's more, he's written it in a way that deliberately promotes mystery. Multiple conflicting POVs, none of which are the actual major player, suggests that said major player has something hidden up his sleeve.

Aegon is being set up to be backed by Dorne and the Golden Company. Daenerys is being set up to be backed by an even more motley bunch of foreigners. Perhaps the good folk of Westeros will look to another, a third option? 

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On 6/12/2016 at 3:33 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Aegon is being set up to be backed by Dorne and the Golden Company. Daenerys is being set up to be backed by an even more motley bunch of foreigners. Perhaps the good folk of Westeros will look to another, a third option? 

OT: what's the best Elric of Melnibone book to start with?

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21 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

OT: what's the best Elric of Melnibone book to start with?

Elric of Melnibone. 

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