Arya's three kills game: your choices to make Starks win and why

[magusj]

Rules:

1- You know everything you know now as a reader of all five books.

2- You are given the choice of Arya's three kills with Jaqen. Assume almost immediate kills i.e. ignore how long it would take Jaqen to travel/commit the kills... basically, Jaqen is Nightcrawler only with unlimited range.

3- Your goal is is to have House Stark win the War of the Five Kings and immediate aftermath. If you think victory is impossible, then maximize their position at the end of said war. For purposes of this game, ignore The Others and the overarching long-term threat they pose for now.

To get it started off, I'll go:

I'd kill Catelyn, Theon and Lysa.

Catelyn:

With her dead, the Kingslayer isn't freed: this maintainins a crucial bargaining chip for Robb against the Lannisters and keeps the Karstarks in the alliance.

Theon:

With him dead, Winterfell doesn't fall, Robb doesn't hear false word of his brothers dying and doesn't break Frey alliance by marriage.

Lysa:

With her dead, high probability of the Vale joining the Starks as a regent would take over and most bannermen favored the Starks as traditional allies (from Robert's Rebellion, geography, etc.)

Here's how I would see it playing out:

- Iron Islands invasion of North peters out as they're not made for land battles. After initial surprise North starts to rally and take its toll on the Iron Men would be conquerors. Robb Stark's eventual plan to retake Moat Cailin with help of Crannogmen succeeds and North basically retakes all its lands. Robb replenishes his troops and has rock solid defensive position with Riverrun (hard to siege), Kingslayer captive, Moat Cailin fortified, White Harbor ships, Twins (also hard to siege and excellent defensively) and free to negotiate alliance with a willing Vale after Lysa's death.

- Rob is basically in the most powerful position of anyone in the 7 Kingdoms at this point. Lannister forces are drained, Baratheons crused, Dorne out of picture for forseeable future, Ironmen squabbling internally and doing Kingsmoot with Euron and eventually attacking South so indirectly helping Robb out. Plus, at this point he has reputation for being fierce, undefeated warleader. He can reach negotiated peace with Tywin or invade Westerlands, attack Kingslanding, etc.... several options and I think he'd eventually win.

Here are some other characters you might want to kill, and my reasons why theyre not as advantageous:

Tywin: no point as far as I'm concerned, as Kevan would take over and is pretty much same deal if a little less bad arse. Slight advantage, but not worth an entire kill as doesn't change anything that much politically or militarily.

Joffrey: no point, Tommen takes over and beyond beets getting outlawed everything's the same. waste of a kill.

Stannis: he's going to get defeated at Kings Landing and placed out of picture for foreseeable future, so no point. Plus he presumably kills bunch of Lannisters in that battle, so leave him alone as it helps Robb out, if only marginally.

Tyrion: I strongly considered it (as without him Kings Landing falls to Stannis and whole dynamic of war changes.... hmm... interesting), but I thought my three options were marginally better... still, strong argument could be made for him as Stannis would take city, only to have Lannisters show up outside with Tyrells, massive battle continues drainign both sides and eventual victor (probably Lannisters/Tyrell). Littlefinger/Cersei/Joffrey all likely killed in battle and sack of city, whole war dynamic would change... might be worth switching my Lysa pick for this come to think of it.

Cersei: irreleant to war at this point and chagnes nothing. heck, might help the Lannisters to kill her.

What are YOUR three picks and why?

[LittleDragon]

At what time they shall be killed? I mean there are characters whose story arc changes during the story, and so do our feelings towards them, and we would make other choices at the beginning of the story f. ex. in AGOT or at a later stage. So is there any fixed timeline we are moving in f.ex. the killing must be done at the end of AGOT or et the end of ADWD or the target is moving, as it was with Arya, she could name the persons any time? Do you include ADWD? So do we use the knowledge we have after reading ADWD (of course avoiding spoilers)?

[magusj]

I would say have them killed right when Jaqen gives Arya his offer, or anytime thereafter if you choose to delay the kills (though I don't see how that would be advantageous). Arya (you) can name the kills whenever you want.

Yes, include the knowledge you have from ADWD (but avoid spoilers).

[Alexia]

I would say have them killed right when Jaqen gives Arya his offer, or anytime thereafter if you choose to delay the kills (though I don't see how that would be advantageous). Arya (you) can name the kills whenever you want.

Yes, include the knowledge you have from ADWD (but avoid spoilers).

Tywin, Cersei, and Tyrion. That should take care of that.

[magusj]

Tywin, Cersei, and Tyrion. That should take care of that.

how? Kevan takes over for Lannisters as regent for Joffrey, nothing really changes militarily and war goes on. Kingslayer gets freed by Catelyn, LIttlefinger still pulls off Tyrell alliance, Theon conquers Winterfell, Robb betrays Freys, Red Wedding most likely still happens.

These picks don't make much sense to me unless you explain them and why you picked them. How exactly do they change things for the Starks?

[Alexia]

With Cersei and Tyrion dead, Stannis wins the Battle of the Blackwater (if the city even fights, at that point) and executes Joffrey and Tommen. Then the Baratheon queen is in the hands of the Martells. That alone loses the war for the Lannisters immediately.

With Tywin dead, you get Kevan in charge. Kevan will look at his options and sue for peace with Stannis and the Starks, as he isn't a 16 year old child.

[blackseer]

Tywin, Cersei, and Tyrion. That should take care of that.

Exchange Cersei for Kevan and it's done. No more Lannisters with brains.

[King_In_The_North]

Tywin, Walder Frey, and Balon.

[magusj]

With Cersei and Tyrion dead, Stannis wins the Battle of the Blackwater (if the city even fights, at that point) and executes Joffrey and Tommen. Then the Baratheon queen is in the hands of the Martells. That alone loses the war for the Lannisters immediately.

With Tywin dead, you get Kevan in charge. Kevan will look at his options and sue for peace with Stannis and the Starks, as he isn't a 16 year old child.

hmm.... interesting. that depends on when you kill Tyrion, as he's the one who sends Myrcella to Dorne. So I'm assuming you wait for that to happen before killing Tyrion. Fair enough.

Still possible Tommen escapes as he's not AT King's Landing during the battle but sequestered away. Also, I don't see how Stannis wins the battle, because even if he takes city, Kevan would still show up with the Tyrell alliance and retake city after bloodbath.

Even if the scenario you draw out occurs with Tommen dying AND Stannis holding the city and Myrcella in Dorne and Kevan sues for peace (which I don't think necessarily happens btw, but let's assume it does), there's still going to be war between Stannis and Robb. The Winterfell still burns and Frey alliance is still broken, Kingslayer still released... I'm not 100% sure it leads to Stark victory. I like my picks better.

[Alexia]

Exchange Cersei for Kevan and it's done. No more Lannisters with brains.

Except Cersei made some good decisions in planning for the battle. Losing KL is the important part that will lose them the war. Both Tyrion AND Cersei were crucial to winning that battle -- Cersei was amassing an army, and placed the wildfire orders. Tyrion took her work and developed a military strategy based on it.

Daven and Genna Lannister both have brains, as do some others. But the senior Lannisters in KL, and Tywin Lannister, are the major concern to eliminate.

Magusj, the Kingslayer wouldn't have been released because Stannis would have carried through on his promise to Catelyn and immediately returned Sansa. And frankly, if we follow through on your picks we may as well as just go ahead and kill Robb, since his atrocious decision making is the foundation behind the Frey alliance breaking, the loss of his heir to the Lannisters, Winterfell burning, et cetera.

[magusj]

Exchange Cersei for Kevan and it's done. No more Lannisters with brains.

Jaime? Who would still be released by Catelyn after Robb sleeps with Jeyne after Winterfell burns after Theon captures it. right?

Jaime would become head of family and lead the Lannister forces

[magusj]

Except Cersei made some good decisions in planning for the battle. Losing KL is the important part that will lose them the war. Both Tyrion AND Cersei were crucial to winning that battle -- Cersei was amassing an army, and placed the wildfire orders. Tyrion took her work and developed a military strategy based on it.

Daven and Genna Lannister both have brains, as do some others. But the senior Lannisters in KL, and Tywin Lannister, are the major concern to eliminate.

Magusj, the Kingslayer wouldn't have been released because Stannis would have carried through on his promise to Catelyn and immediately returned Sansa. And frankly, if we follow through on your picks we may as well as just go ahead and kill Robb, since his atrocious decision making is the foundation behind the Frey alliance breaking, the loss of his heir to the Lannisters, Winterfell burning, et cetera.

I see what you're saying... but here's where I disagree. If you kill Robb the Starks effectively lose, as he's the rallying force behind the whole effort...at that point you basically just bend the knee and that's that.

Fair point on Stannis releasing Sansa, I'd forgotten bout that. But he still would require the Starks to surrender and bend knee, and if not war would break out.

And lastly, I'm still not convinced that with Tyrion and Cersei dead, Stannis wins because EVEN if he captures KL he still loses battle to united Tyrell Lannister force that shows up. It's a bloody battle but keep in mind how freaking big the Lannister Tyrell forces are... that's the key point to remember. And then some OTHER Lannister takes over and war goes on and Robb still dies and Starks are in disarray.

[Alexia]

And lastly, I'm still not convinced that with Tyrion and Cersei dead, Stannis wins because EVEN if he captures KL he still loses battle to united Tyrell Lannister force that shows up.

Tyrion died months ago. The Tyrell marriage was never arranged. Tywin died months ago which changes the facts on the ground for who is commanding the Lannister military.

[magusj]

Tyrion died months ago. The Tyrell marriage was never arranged. Tywin died months ago which changes the facts on the ground for who is commanding the Lannister military.

was it Tyrion that organized the Tyrell marriage? hmm.... that complicates things, you're right. So then Stannis wins KL, and you have roughly equal forces between Stannis, Robb and remaining Lannisters facing each other off. I'm not sure that's a better outcome for the Starks than in my scenario, where they basically have a much stronger position and Robb is favorite to win, but it still better than what happened, I'll give you that.

Plus the Tyrells are now in play, and will ally with someone, either Baratheon, Stark or Lannister. I don't see any incentive for Tyrell's to ally with "King of the North" so they'd likely throw their lot in with either Stannis or Lannisters... probably still Lannisters because no one really likes Stannis. So now Robb is basically weakest of three parties that are fighting the war.... my scenario leaves him as the STRONGEST of three parties. no?

[Alexia]

The Tyrells aren't going to ally with Stannis because of the bad blood between them. LF already explained to Ned in detail why the Tyrells would never support Stannis for king. The Lannister crown is already gone with L.

I expect that at this point you get a new king, the King of Flowers, to go alongside the Winter King, et cetera. And then poor Stannis is going to be hit by a Tyrell army from the south. Since the Tyrells have no ancestral claim to the throne, and lost theirs with Renly, it makes the most sense that they'll declare independence.

The only thing your scenario changes is the loss of Winterfell. But he's still lost the Freys, and the Lannisters still have the Tyrells, and they are now consolidating their hold on the realm. At best, another year of fighting to subdue him. At worst, the Red Wedding is still on.

[magusj]

The Tyrells aren't going to ally with Stannis because of the bad blood between them. LF already explained to Ned in detail why the Tyrells would never support Stannis for king. The Lannister crown is already gone with L.

I expect that at this point you get a new king, the King of Flowers, to go alongside the Winter King, et cetera. And then poor Stannis is going to be hit by a Tyrell army from the south. Since the Tyrells have no ancestral claim to the throne, and lost theirs with Renly, it makes the most sense that they'll declare independence.

The only thing your scenario changes is the loss of Winterfell. But he's still lost the Freys, and the Lannisters still have the Tyrells, and they are now consolidating their hold on the realm. At best, another year of fighting to subdue him. At worst, the Red Wedding is still on.

Alexia, why would he still lose the Freys? By not losing Winterfell, Robb does not marry Jeyne and does not lose the Freys. That's key.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Littlefinger, Tywin, Theon.

Edited to add the why: Littlefinger and Theon because they committed the most profound betrayals of the Stark family under the cover of friendship and family (or "friendship" or "family.")

Tywin because he's the enemy mastermind and so powerful, or perceived as so powerful, that people do what he says with minimal opposition (Tyrion marrying Sansa). Tywin is also such a power magnet that he attracts bottom feeders who will do his dirty work, like Sybil Spicer Westerling, Gregor Clegane and Walder Frey.

Kevan could try to keep things moving, but he doesn't have the charisma, or the control over the Lannister wealth, to fully replace Tywin.

[Freeeeeedom!]

Not sure about the timeline but here goes:

Melisandre- Renly lives, takes King's Landing

Greatjon- No King In The North, Robb allies with Renly when Stannis is defeated and the war is won.

Tywin- Weakens the Lannisters in the field and makes it all the easier for a Stark/Baratheon victory

I don't think any one Greyjoy dying would stop the North invasion, but the North could be retaken easily after the war.

[Gurkhal]

To be honest I don't think that three kills would be enough to change anything. I'd need at least six kills to win the war for the Starks

1. Balon - the Ironmen goes back home to fight over their crown, new leader may be more willing to either strike it out with Robb or leave Rodrick to clean things up

2. Tywin - to break the Lannisters and leave them without good leadership

3. Kevan - see Tywin

4. Lysa - to free up the Vale so they can join Robb after one of the lords becomes the regent for Sweetrobin

5. Margaery - to prevent them from getting to attached to the boy-king on the Iron Throne

6. Queen of Thorns - to take out the Tyrell mastermind and thus make them less able to get things done

[Bourne]

Rules:

1- You know everything you know now as a reader of all five books.

2- You are given the choice of Arya's three kills with Jaqen. Assume almost immediate kills i.e. ignore how long it would take Jaqen to travel/commit the kills... basically, Jaqen is Nightcrawler only with unlimited range.

3- Your goal is is to have House Stark win the War of the Five Kings and immediate aftermath. If you think victory is impossible, then maximize their position at the end of said war. For purposes of this game, ignore The Others and the overarching long-term threat they pose for now.

To get it started off, I'll go:

I'd kill Catelyn, Theon and Lysa.

Catelyn:

With her dead, the Kingslayer isn't freed: this maintainins a crucial bargaining chip for Robb against the Lannisters and keeps the Karstarks in the alliance.

Theon:

With him dead, Winterfell doesn't fall, Robb doesn't hear false word of his brothers dying and doesn't break Frey alliance by marriage.

Lysa:

With her dead, high probability of the Vale joining the Starks as a regent would take over and most bannermen favored the Starks as traditional allies (from Robert's Rebellion, geography, etc.)

Here's how I would see it playing out:

- Iron Islands invasion of North peters out as they're not made for land battles. After initial surprise North starts to rally and take its toll on the Iron Men would be conquerors. Robb Stark's eventual plan to retake Moat Cailin with help of Crannogmen succeeds and North basically retakes all its lands. Robb replenishes his troops and has rock solid defensive position with Riverrun (hard to siege), Kingslayer captive, Moat Cailin fortified, White Harbor ships, Twins (also hard to siege and excellent defensively) and free to negotiate alliance with a willing Vale after Lysa's death.

- Rob is basically in the most powerful position of anyone in the 7 Kingdoms at this point. Lannister forces are drained, Baratheons crused, Dorne out of picture for forseeable future, Ironmen squabbling internally and doing Kingsmoot with Euron and eventually attacking South so indirectly helping Robb out. Plus, at this point he has reputation for being fierce, undefeated warleader. He can reach negotiated peace with Tywin or invade Westerlands, attack Kingslanding, etc.... several options and I think he'd eventually win.

Here are some other characters you might want to kill, and my reasons why theyre not as advantageous:

Tywin: no point as far as I'm concerned, as Kevan would take over and is pretty much same deal if a little less bad arse. Slight advantage, but not worth an entire kill as doesn't change anything that much politically or militarily.

Joffrey: no point, Tommen takes over and beyond beets getting outlawed everything's the same. waste of a kill.

Stannis: he's going to get defeated at Kings Landing and placed out of picture for foreseeable future, so no point. Plus he presumably kills bunch of Lannisters in that battle, so leave him alone as it helps Robb out, if only marginally.

Tyrion: I strongly considered it (as without him Kings Landing falls to Stannis and whole dynamic of war changes.... hmm... interesting), but I thought my three options were marginally better... still, strong argument could be made for him as Stannis would take city, only to have Lannisters show up outside with Tyrells, massive battle continues drainign both sides and eventual victor (probably Lannisters/Tyrell). Littlefinger/Cersei/Joffrey all likely killed in battle and sack of city, whole war dynamic would change... might be worth switching my Lysa pick for this come to think of it.

Cersei: irreleant to war at this point and chagnes nothing. heck, might help the Lannisters to kill her.

What are YOUR three picks and why?

Tywin, Tywin, Tywin.

Ok, I wouldn't really pick him three times, but your exclusion of him is laughable. I understand why you picked the other three, and disagree, but I don't have a real problem with them. However your assertion that the change from Tywin to Kevan isn't a big deal is insane. Tywin is the most dangerous man in Westeros, by far. For emphasis I'll say it again.

Tywin is the most dangerous man in Westeros, by far.

Nothing against Kevan, but the mere difference in the prestige between Tywin and Kevan is in itself phenomenal. People shit their pants when they hear Tywin Lannister is leading an army against them. Kevan? Not so much. Tywin's name is enough to win a lot of battles. He's the best commander, best Lord, and the best strategist in Westeros.

Without Tywin, Tyrion doesn't become the Hand and save Kingslanding. Without Tyrion the Tyrell Alliance probably doesn't happen.

Without Tywin, Stannis would win the Battle of the Blackwater.

Without Tywin, the Bolton doesn't betray Robb and the Red Wedding doesn't happen.

Do not underestimate Tywin Lannister.

Edit: Changing Lysa for Tyrion is not a good idea. I think Lysa was the strongest of your Picks. Without Tywin, Tyrion is basically powerless anyway. So off the top of my head here are my three

Tywin (Obviously)

Lysa (For the reasons you said)

Balon (Without him, Theon doesn't matter)