Arya's three kills game: your choices to make Starks win and why

[Winterfell is Burning]

I'm assuming this means around the time Arya received the offer:

Tywin- Really needs an explanation?

Lysa- Vale automatically allies with the Starks, Littlefinger is stuck in King's Landing.

Balon- Ironborn return home to fight for the crown, including Theon.

[Johnny The Longshanks]

Catelyn

Hoster Tully

Edmure Tully

Boom. Starks don't need to protect the riverlords anymore and they can go back to Moat Cailin and nobody can challenge them in the North. Winterfell never falls. Unfortunately we also have three less books in the series.

Love the idea of killing Melsandre so that Renly doesn't die because he seemed more open to friendship with Robb at this point but eve if he is not it doesn't matter.

[Cydal]

Tywin, Tywin, Tywin.

Ok, I wouldn't really pick him three times, but your exclusion of him is laughable. I understand why you picked the other three, and disagree, but I don't have a real problem with them. However your assertion that the change from Tywin to Kevan isn't a big deal is insane. Tywin is the most dangerous man in Westeros, by far. For emphasis I'll say it again.

Tywin is the most dangerous man in Westeros, by far.

Nothing against Kevan, but the mere difference in the prestige between Tywin and Kevan is in itself phenomenal. People shit their pants when they hear Tywin Lannister is leading an army against them. Kevan? Not so much. Tywin's name is enough to win a lot of battles. He's the best commander, best Lord, and the best strategist in Westeros.

Without Tywin, Tyrion doesn't become the Hand and save Kingslanding. Without Tyrion the Tyrell Alliance probably doesn't happen.

Without Tywin, Stannis would win the Battle of the Blackwater.

Without Tywin, the Bolton doesn't betray Robb and the Red Wedding doesn't happen.

Do not underestimate Tywin Lannister.

Edit: Changing Lysa for Tyrion is not a good idea. I think Lysa was the strongest of your Picks. Without Tywin, Tyrion is basically powerless anyway. So off the top of my head here are my three

Tywin (Obviously)

Lysa (For the reasons you said)

Balon (Without him, Theon doesn't matter)

I agree with you that Kevan is no Tywin and Kevan would require time to build up a reputation like Tywin's. But i disagree with you on Theon, if you kill Balon, Theon returns home(Since Robb would most likely let him go so as to become King and ally with him), Victarion probably gets made King (If Kingsmoot gets called) and then does what Balon would have done anyway(Knowing Victarion as not the most original of brutes), Theon at this point would have no choice but to accept Victarion and does what he did anyway.

But if you kill Theon, Victarion takes Torrhen Sq and Moat Caillin but not Winterfell and with Ser Rodrik's forces still intact, Rodrik would have enlisted the Mountain clans that Stannis got and attack Moat Caillin from the North while Robb sails through Greywater watch alone and leads Rodrik's forces probably finding out about Jon's Heritage in the process from Howland Reed. Robb get's Jon released from the Night's watch on the condition that he will help the wall, Jon still lets the wildlings through and they bow to him now as their new king and Robb has another 60+ thousand wildlings to help defend the Riverlands with the added force of The Vale thanks to Lysa being taken out. Only now Jon claims King in the south or atleast claims Dragonstone as a Targ as well as Stormsend since Baratheon is distantly related Targ or atleast by right of conquest. BOOM!!!

[Wroth of a dwarf]

Melisandre- This keeps Renly alive, and Brienne in the Rainbow Guard where she can be of no assistance to Catelyn in freeing the Kingslayer. It also keeps Margery married to Renly, and most of the Highgarden Knights "of Summer" out of the Lannister camp.(As well as dangerous bannermen like Randyl Tarly). A deeply bled and weakened Renly then either sits the Iron throne or besieges it. At this point he would probably be willing to negotiate with (or ally with) a King in the North.

Theon- Your listed reasons were strong. It is paramount that Robb maintains posession of Winterfell.

Walder Frey- I had thought about killing Jeyne instead, but it is entirely possible that Robb could have fell in love with someone else while on campaign. He is a teenager . It is also more than possible that Walder Frey would have betrayed the North anyway. ( I'm thinking militarily, rather than something as evil as the RW).

I had thought about Tywin as well.(Too bad we can't have 4) With a Renly/Highgarden army closing on KL, you can bet that Tyrion would not be long as the acting King's Hand. Tywin would be back in KL quicker than you can say "shits gold". I like him right there, beseiged and bleeding (and certainly bleeding Renly). Besides, as you noted, there wouldn't be a hell of a lot of policy shift if Tywin bit it. Kevan would still carry on his policies.

While I like the idea of Lysa Arryn, and getting those Vale bannermen, I think it is more important for Robb to have a rock solid North at his back, and Lannisters fighting Tyrells and Baratheons in the front.

Fun thread!

[lupis42]

Lysa - for the reasons mentioned previously. Getting rid of her will bring the Vale into the war, and not on the side of the Lannisters.

Theon - preventing the sack of Winterfell will prevent the false deaths of Bran and Rickon, and thus prevent both the collapse of the Frey alliance and the release of the Kingthlayer (IIRC, it was partly grief at that news that drove Cat over the edge).

The last one is tricky, but I think Littlefinger is more dangerous than Tywin if Robb can break the Lannister army as they rush to save King's Landing from Stannis.

[The Red Lion]

Margaery

Littlefinger

Theon

Margaery dies, so no alliance can be made with the lannisters, littlefinger dies, lysa cries, and send her bannerman to kill the lannisters who killed him ( That's what she's going to think ) Theon dies, and he doesn't take winterfell

TA-DA!

[Elfangle]

1) Tywin

2) Mellisandre

3) Stannis Baratheon

Tywin is pretty obvious! Smebody allready said it. Tywin is the most dangerous man in Westeros. He is cold, ruthless, powerfull and so on... With him dead, there would never be a red wedding: Bolten would not dare to betray Rob and Weasel Frey would just accept the humiliation by Rob. All these things happened because they had the support from Tywin.

When Mellisandre is dead there is no shadow to kill Renly... The alliance between Renly and the Tyrels still holds through Marjory.

When Stannis is dead (and Mellisandre) the majority of his army goes to Renly including the Florens due to the Tyrels being their true lords.

Catelyn will convince Rob and Renly to form a truce and fight their common enemy (the Lannisters). Maybe one of the key points is that Renly helps Rob regain the north in return for his allegiance....

[The Blind Eye]

1. Stannis

2. Theon

3. Lysa or Tywin

Lets take a moment and look at what drives certain people to certain choices. Most importantly Melisandre is almost fanatically crusading to put Stannis on the throne. Not because he is the lawful king but because she believes he, and he alone, is Azor Ahai reborn and that the only way to beat the Other(s) is by unifying the realm behind him. So if Stannis is killed (lets assume in such a way that prevents any of this crazy undead life 2.0 from happening) Melisandre now has no reason to murder Renly (that we readers know of). This is really a two deaths with one name deal since it should take Melisandre out of the picture.

Considering the ironmen problem: If as some people have suggested Balon is killed instead of Theon all will be flowers and sunshine. I disagree, with Euron still some distance away and Balon dead Victorian will most likely claim the throne over Theon. We can assume from how The Damphair supported him and nay-sayed Asha that he will be enthroned. Victorain was fond and dutiful in his belief in his brother and that the ironmen could take and hold the north (as he states at the kingsmoot). Since he was most likely in on planning the invasion, it probably goes ahead as in the book. This leaves Winterfell unsacked, Bran and Rickon still alive, Ramasy imprisioned, Robb unwed and the Freys/Karstarks unoffended. With that said Torrhen's square will remain free and Ser Rodrick may be able to free Deep Wood or at the least have 2-3 thousand more Northmen available for the retake of the Moat, and those being on the North side.

I'll also take the time to note that Balon does die in the books in a fashion unrelated to the actions of anyone in the 2nd and 3rd book and that it really can be argued Theon's actions lead directly to Robb's downfall. If Balon's name is spoken in Theon's stead there are too many people who don't want to see him (theon) immediately, if ever, seated on the seastone chair. AND theon may still try and take Winterfell to prove himself to whoever claims the ironmen's throne. Theon really has to die to keep stability in the North.

The third name/death is a lot more tricky. I would like to sum up what I believe the political/military landscape will look like with the first two deaths. First, Renly remains alive and threatening in the South. Without Stannis both threatening Storms End and Melisandre murdering him, he will in all likelihood continue his slow march towards Kingslanding. When Catelyn reaches him he may still hold her to be witness to his victory at KL and maybe to give her daughters back after his almost inevitable victory, as a show of good faith. Secondly, the North is a lot less of a mess for Robb, although still a problem that he needs to deal with but not immediately. I can state factually that Robb will still have time to plan and carry out an attack. This is true because he went and raided the west and it is there he learns of his brothers deaths. And there will still be that new Lannister army to contend with in the west. It is at this point we get into a lot greyer of a grey area. Consideration must be given to the fact that there WILL be a side opposing Robb after the third death is named. I believe the ideal end situation would be to have Renly in the South as the only person left with the ability to seriously challenge Robb. (I also believe the perfect solution is everyone south of the God's eye spontaneously dying but not realistically possible with one more death) Now with that said Renly is already unhappy about Robb 'taking' half the kingdom from him and he may be talked into an alliance if he gets to keep all the rest of the 5 kingdoms (6 if you count the iron islands which i don't).

If Lysa dies and the Vale declares for Robb, two conclusions can probably be drawn: One Renly, if he wins the south and sits at Kingslanding, will be even less open to allowing the 7 kingdoms to be split into 2, with his being the smaller. Two Robb suddenly has the military might to seige Harrenhal (with Tywin inside) and threaten the west at the same time, the supplies to feed the ravaged riverlands and the strength to eventually seize the Iron Throne something I am pretty sure he doesn't want to do.

If Tywin dies leadership at Harrenhal passes to Kevan. Kevan's ability to wage war is not fully known but he is far less feared and strategic than Tywin. Additionally Cersei is not very fond of Tyrion. She goes so far as to say that if she named his letter a fake no one would question her and she could have him seized. It is also known from her POV's in AFFC that she views herself (how ever wrongly) as the next Tywin. I believe that if Tywin dies Cersei will freak out and try to have Tyrion killed/deposed so she can rule herself. She may or may not succeed with her plan but afterwards one of them will be in sole control of KL. Then Robb will still assult the west as he had planned, Kevan will most likely pursue, Edmure will stop him and Roose will still take Harrenhall from behind. This i think is the better option. It will leave the Lannister host in the riverlands without a safe place to stay, no waiting army to the south to regroup with and Kingslanding hopefully beseiged. Robb will be in a commanding position to sack/starve/plunder the westerlands to feed the riverlands while the lannisters starve because they burned the riverlands. Renly will eventually take Kingslanding and the lannisters will be hunted down the destroyed if they don't bend the knee.

Edit for grammar

[Bourne]

I agree with you that Kevan is no Tywin and Kevan would require time to build up a reputation like Tywin's. But i disagree with you on Theon, if you kill Balon, Theon returns home(Since Robb would most likely let him go so as to become King and ally with him), Victarion probably gets made King (If Kingsmoot gets called) and then does what Balon would have done anyway(Knowing Victarion as not the most original of brutes), Theon at this point would have no choice but to accept Victarion and does what he did anyway.

But if you kill Theon, Victarion takes Torrhen Sq and Moat Caillin but not Winterfell and with Ser Rodrik's forces still intact, Rodrik would have enlisted the Mountain clans that Stannis got and attack Moat Caillin from the North while Robb sails through Greywater watch alone and leads Rodrik's forces probably finding out about Jon's Heritage in the process from Howland Reed. Robb get's Jon released from the Night's watch on the condition that he will help the wall, Jon still lets the wildlings through and they bow to him now as their new king and Robb has another 60+ thousand wildlings to help defend the Riverlands with the added force of The Vale thanks to Lysa being taken out. Only now Jon claims King in the south or atleast claims Dragonstone as a Targ as well as Stormsend since Baratheon is distantly related Targ or atleast by right of conquest. BOOM!!!

Do the Ironborn still go to war without the ambitious Balon? Victarion isn't really a leader. I think it's a stretch to say the Ironborn would have had anywhere near the role in the war without Balon. Theon was expecting them to take the terms with Robb. You think Victarion would have turned down their independence? He could have been king anyway. Without Balon, the Ironborn don't go to war against the North at all.

[ARYa_Nym]

I hate Tywin and the scene where Tyrion killed him was great but I can't help but think that someone with his mind would be a great asset against the Others. He was too much for the Starks so he would need to go for them to succeed.

I thought that the whole King in the North idea was stupid but what's done is done so I would kill Stannis because Renly was more flexible.

I would say kill Gregor so Oberyn can live but that doesn't help the Starks so I would kill Theon.

[Cydal]

Do the Ironborn still go to war without the ambitious Balon? Victarion isn't really a leader. I think it's a stretch to say the Ironborn would have had anywhere near the role in the war without Balon. Theon was expecting them to take the terms with Robb. You think Victarion would have turned down their independence? He could have been king anyway. Without Balon, the Ironborn don't go to war against the North at all.

I disagree, there's a reason the Greyjoy words are "We do not sow". They are a raider culture, being part of the 7 kingdoms is what brought them to heel. The north being ruled by a green boy (Robb) and undefended was too good to pass up. The North also happens to have Moat Caillin which reduces the chances of the Northman retaking it. So yes, the North was always the easiest choice for any unimaginative Ironborn leader. It took Euron to attack the The Reach instead, someone like him could have allied with the North but never Victarion.

[Sword in the Morning]

Joffrey, Myrcella, Tommen.

With all of them dead, there is no more dispute over succession. Stannis takes the throne. The Starks go home to the North to grieve for Ned and live as best they can.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Without reading anyone else’s responses in advance, the right answers are obviously Tywin, Cersei, and Joffrey. Preferably a couple years ago.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Jaime would become head of family and lead the Lannister forces

He serves as a Kingsguard for life.

[seanbean4lyfe]

For all the people who say Theon, he only put that plan into motion because Robb choose him to go

therefore, we kill Robb because then Bran would be lord of winterfell, and Theon would be HIS hostage (techically...are hostages inherited? haha) and Catelynn would have influence over that since Bran is so young...and she didn't think it was wise for Theon to return to the Iron Isles. Plus, Robb is a fuck.

Of course, then the northerners would not be as passionate about kicking ass since the red wedding wouldnt have happened...

but i dont want Theon to die :bawl:

so we will kill Balon, so Theon doesn't feel the need to impress everyone so much and the Iron Isles are in a uproar over who is the Lord... WAIT DAMMIT, it would be Theon

this is hard when you want someone to live even though the probably should be bumped off...

Joffrey, Myrcella, Tommen.

With all of them dead, there is no more dispute over succession. Stannis takes the throne. The Starks go home to the North to grieve for Ned and live as best they can.

this

or

I think the Starks might just pull this one out the way things are. its like jenga. you take out one part of the equation that makes the situation bad, but that just leads to having to take out another one until it all falls apart.

[The Marquis de Leech]

Killing Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen is "what would be best for Stannis", not the Starks.

Killing Theon doesn't really change things too much: yes, Winterfell doesn't fall, but Balon Greyjoy still attacks the North, forcing the Starks to go home. Robb will still be at the Crag and subjected to a love-potion concotion, so he might well still sleep with Jeyne.

I think the best option for the Starks would be Tywin, Tyrion, and Roose. Arguing "Oh, Kevan will just take over" overlooks the fact that without Tywin or Tyrion, Cersei is the one in charge, leading to disintegration of the Lannister forces. Killing Roose and Tywin likely prevents the Red Wedding, and ensures that the Starks have a loyal North.

[The Marquis de Leech]

Catelyn

Hoster Tully

Edmure Tully

Boom. Starks don't need to protect the riverlords anymore and they can go back to Moat Cailin and nobody can challenge them in the North. Winterfell never falls. Unfortunately we also have three less books in the series.

Actually, after those three, the next heir to Riverrun is ... Robb Stark.

[RottenAppleFossoway]

1. Tywin Lannister- No RW, No BW victory (no Tyrion as Hand), substantially weakens Joffrey in pretty much every aspect going forward.

2.Stannis Baratheon- Melisandre goes home, Renly's claim (and army most likely) strengthened going forward to the Blackwater against Joffrey instead of his army being with Joffrey. Again no Tywin or Tyrion to command, KL falls to King Renly Baratheon, who would then crush the Iron Born assuming they still invade along with Lord Stark of Winterfell, who would likely bend the knee to Renly under these circumstances right? With the Lannisters defeated in the north by Robb and the South by Renly and the Tyrells, they're done regardless.

3.Petyr Baelish- Preventive Strike- He's almost as dangerous as Tywin Lannister imo, really only lacking Tywin's battlefield command skills. Perhaps surpasses Tywin in cunning.

These three deaths, in this time-frame,erase much of books 2-5.

[voodooqueen126]

Tywin, Walder Frey, Balon

[Rakka]

Oh, wow. I'm surprised how so many people pick Lysa - I mean, she's obviously a tool. Do you punish his weapon when you arrest a criminal, to quote Reinhard von Lohengramm. It should be obvious that Littlefinger is the one who tells her what to do, and there's what, all of 3 or so calls for his head...

My three:

1. Littlefinger. The plotter behind the whole mess. Some of his plans would probably proceed even without him dead, but he's the one who negotiated the whole Tyrell-Lannister alliance you people want to kill Margaery for.

2. Theon. No Theon to go to Iron Islands, no taking of Winterfell, no fake killing of Bran and Rickon, no Robb sleeping with Jeyne for sorrow, no Catelyn releasing Jaime because she wanted at least her daughters back.

Third is tricky. If Lannisters fall to Tyrells, there's room for negotiations between them - it's the Lannisters' blood that the North wants. Either Tywin or Melisandre. Seeing what a pig's ear Cercei makes of everything without Tywin there to hold her leash, I'd pick Tywin - things'll fall apart without his control, and the Lannisters fail.