NFL Thread #5

[Mexal]

Hee. It's so Mexaly. That's great. Forget the fact that your coach is horrible, that Mike Brown is far worse an owner than anyone's ever had in the entire league - including the Bidwells. And then just look at the positives, despite having a shitty running game and a fairly meh line.

There's some things to like about Cinci, but the management will crush their hopes and dreams just like they always do.

I'll never ignore that the owner is shit but I will have to say that over the last few years, he's doing well. The drafts have been good, the coaching changes (keeping Zimmer, getting Gruden...though keeping Lewis was a bit of a disappointment) have been good and they even made a deal with UC to practice in their indoor facility. That's a HUGE win for the team. I have to look at the positives on this.

I don't disagree that our running game is fairly meh but I've never been a believer in Benson so no real surprise there. This is why I want Miller in the first round next year as I said in my last post.

And for the record, the line is good with the potential be great if we can just get LG sorted. Whitworth is one of the best LTs in the game. Smith is holding his own at RT and will be even better after a year of playing. Cook is solid at centre and Bobbie Williams, while old, was still one of the highest rated guards in the game last season. I'm perfectly happy with our line.

[Commodore]

Al's dying wish was to acquire Carson Palmer

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

And Brains! More brains!

[Jaxom 1974]

And it's a done deal. Bengals got a kings ransom for a player they would no longer play. Finally Brown does something right.

That's assuming that he does something with the picks that is worth...oh wait, this isn't Jerry Angelo making draft picks...it could turn out okay then...

And wasn't Jason Campbell supposed to the guy in Oakland? He was the planned future? He might only be out six weeks from injury, but despite what Al might have wanted from him in the future, those now in charge of the Raiders have basically told him that he's done forever whether he's healthy again this season or not...

[Young Wolf]

Just win baby? :unsure:

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

And wasn't Jason Campbell supposed to the guy in Oakland? He was the planned future? He might only be out six weeks from injury, but despite what Al might have wanted from him in the future, those now in charge of the Raiders have basically told him that he's done forever whether he's healthy again this season or not...

I think this is one of the few situations in which you can go after a replacement and potentially not piss off the guy you are replacing. He's out due to injury, the backup sucks eggs, the season hangs in the balance, etc, etc.

If Palmer doesn't work out, I think they could go back to Campbell with a straight face. It's not like the Cutler/Cassel thing.

[Bronn Stone]

Al's dying wish was to acquire Carson Palmer

Wrong. It was to destroy the rebel base on Yavin 4 once and for all. And to replace Vader with Vader's son.

[Slurktan]

And wasn't Jason Campbell supposed to the guy in Oakland? He was the planned future? He might only be out six weeks from injury, but despite what Al might have wanted from him in the future, those now in charge of the Raiders have basically told him that he's done forever whether he's healthy again this season or not...

Jason Campbell is just good enough to make you think he isn't absolute shit. In no way shape or form should he ever be considered "the future". He'd be a solid back up QB actually. He can not lose you games occasionally (although he can lose you games too) so that's enough for a back ups role.

[Rockroi]

I think this is the deal to nowhere.

Palmer has not been the same since 2006 (his last pro-bowl season); ignoring his 2008 season (he was injured), Palmer has been tremendously "meh."

2007: 26 TDs v. 20 INTs (he lead the league in INTs that season)

2009: 21 v. 13

2010: 26 v. 20

He's 32, he will not have ANYONE nearly as good as Chad Ochocinco to throw to (or TO, or TJ HoushmennowayImspellingthiscorrectly; or Chris Henry). He has a bad knee and problems with his shoulder. And he's worth two first round picks, apparently.

The Bengals, on the surface, made out like bandits; they traded a player who no longer played for them and got two huge picks. Even if the picks turn into busts, they still did well because Palmer was never playing again for them.

For the Raiders, I think they just panicked. Their QB went down and they freaked out. Forget trying the back-up; forget a trade for another team's backup or would-be starter (ie: Buck in GB) or another team's cast off (Kyle Orton); No- go to the owner who said that he is never trading the starter and make him an offer he could not refuse. They had always flirted with the idea of Palmer (Palmer apparently had a short list of teams he desired and it was no secret he wanted back in California- Oakland was high on the list). Campbell- who was "okay" this season -was going to be back next season, so the Raiders are basically saying that they think Palmer THIS SEASON and after is worth more than two first rounders and Campbell NEXT SEASON and after. And they noted that Palmer's BEST game last season came against ... the Chargers.... hmmm...

I don't see it. I don't see that sort of mortgage job being done for a payoff THIS season. Yeah, they want the AFC West (and they have a legit shoot at that or the wildcard this season). But what about next season and the season after? Is Palmer going to be worth THAT level of productivity that would reasonably be expected of two first round picks?

Ultimately, I think IN THE SHORT TERM the trade has a good chance of getting the Raiders what they want- playoffs this season. But after that I think this trade will be ultimately painful for them.

And the Bengals will probably screw up the picks anyway....

ETA: One more thing to consider would be The Raiders D which isn't getting any younger. Maybe the Raiders cannot wait. But isn't THAT all the more reason to keep the picks? To restock the D?

[Mexal]

Palmer will be good. I really think he needed a fresh start in a different organisation. Blowing for the Bengals in Brats stale offense really doesn't how much about his overall level of talent. He's only 31 and that's not bad for a QB with weapons around him.

I dont think the Bengals will screw up the picks. Not with Lewis more involved in personnel decisions. Last few drafts have been very good. Can only be optimistic about next years.

[Maithanet]

Well apparently the trade is the Raiders 1st round pick in 2012, and a second round pick in 2013. That second rounder becomes the 1st rounder if the Raiders make the AFC championship game in 2011 or 2012. I find that unlikely, although Kevin Garnett says anything is possible. So in all likelihood, the Raiders gave up a 1st and 2nd round pick for Palmer. That is a high high price to pay for a quarterback who looks to be only a minimal upgrade from Jason Campbell, and is 4 years older.

I feel like the question has become: what can the Raider accomplish in 2011 and 2012? Because after that, you have to assume that Palmer, the defense and the team will be in decline. If we assume that Palmer comes in and plays like a good, but not elite, quarterback, what can they accomplish? The AFC is down this year. Winning the division is a real possibility, San Diego can't seem to get the pieces together, and Rivers is having a bad year. The Colts are a nonfactor, and the rest of the AFC South look lost as frontrunners. The Steelers and Jets both look a step behind where they were last year. That leaves the Bills, the Patriots and the Ravens. Two of those teams have already beaten the Raiders, although both were close-ish and Palmer should make a difference. Best case scenario is the Raiders get the #3 seed, behind the East and North winners. They could win their wild card game at home. But then they're still two tough road games away from the Super Bowl. That D line is going to have to play a lot better than they did against the Bills/Patriots if they want to pull that off.

Even in this optimistic scenario, I can't really see this trade paying off the Oakland. We shall see. I'm casting my prediction for "Terrible trade".

Note: if the Raiders fail to at least win the AFC with Palmer then I cannot call this trade a success. Mortgaging your future to make the AFC title game is not something any team should accept.

[Rhom]

I heard someone make the point that maybe the weapons around him in Cincy the last couple of years weren't as good as we thought. As evidence, see Ochocinco in New England. He went to the franchise known for rehabilitating troubled careers, has the best QB in the game to throw to him, and still isn't contributing. Perhaps Palmer's decline wasn't Palmer's fault?

That said... I think the bigger question here is, "How does Kyle Boller still have an NFL job?!!?"

[Bronn Stone]

That said... I think the bigger question here is, "How does Kyle Boller still have an NFL job?!!?"

If you are looking for a backup QB who can give you a shot to win a game or two and run the offense reasonably well in practice, you could do a lot worse.

[Rhom]

If you are looking for a backup QB who can give you a shot to win a game or two and run the offense reasonably well in practice, you could do a lot worse.

True... David Carr is still on a roster somewhere.

I just think of all the guys coming out of college looking to make a roster and don't get a shot because guys like them are still clogging up the spots. How many Tony Romo's are there at places like Eastern Illinois or Kurt Warner's with the Iowa Barnstormers who don't make a roster because of someone with a name?

[Maithanet]

True... David Carr is still on a roster somewhere.

I just think of all the guys coming out of college looking to make a roster and don't get a shot because guys like them are still clogging up the spots. How many Tony Romo's are there at places like Eastern Illinois or Kurt Warner's with the Iowa Barnstormers who don't make a roster because of someone with a name?

I dunno, I understand the desire to be risk-averse with backup quarterbacks. What you want is someone who is going to at least give you a chance to win. In addition, I think you are really stretching the definition to say that Kyle Boller is a "name". I associate him only with ineptitude as a starter. A blank slate might be better.

[Rhom]

I dunno, I understand the desire to be risk-averse with backup quarterbacks. What you want is someone who is going to at least give you a chance to win. In addition, I think you are really stretching the definition to say that Kyle Boller is a "name". I associate him only with ineptitude as a starter. A blank slate might be better.

I would consider him more of a "name" than say Mike Hartline or Andre Woodson. I'm just using those as examples because they are former Kentucky QB's who tried unsuccessfully to make NFL rosters in the last few years. Hartline with the Colts this year and Woodson with the Giants a couple years ago. In Hartline's case, he was competing (reportedly well) for the 3rd roster spot with Grodkowski and then the Colts breathed life into the corpse of Kerry Collins to start the year. For Woodson, he was a former projected first round pick who slid because of an awkward delivery (no more so than Tim Tebow) and couldn't crack the rotation in New York when they brought in David Carr.

I think for many coaches, they'd rather go with a retread that they know than try to bring in a new QB that may be an improvement, but is an unknown.

Honestly, I think its the same reason Norv Turner has a job or the reason that Dave Wannstedt kept getting callbacks.

[Bronn Stone]

I'd say Kyle belongs in the top 50 QBs. Near or at the bottom of that list, but on it.

I would not underplay the importance of having a backup who does a good job running the offense in practice. Starting QB's miss snaps in practice almost inevitably. You still want practice to be useful. You might not get that with your average Barnstormer.

[Jaime L]

Well, looks like the Skins are going with Beck against Carolina.Think it's the only logical move at this point contrary to what Santana Moss might think. Sexy's had 11 turnovers in 5 games which just kills a defensive oriented team. And he's successively played worse in each game this season. The Eagles game was rock bottom of a trend that's been building for awhile. And as we learned from his time in Chicago, once Bad Rexy gets rolling ain't nothing stopping that trend.

Beck might be no great shakes but he's certainly more mobile which could be big considering how beaten up the O-line is. His athleticism allows Shanahan to run the ole bootleg/stretch play offense he used to run with Elway and Plummer. Grossman wasn't fast enough to threaten the defense and when he had to bootleg to the left on play action he had virtually zero percent chance of getting himself set up to make an effective throw. Just very limited to begin with and then you layer on the increased tunnel vision he was having with his receivers and you have a guy you can no longer start.

Anyway, I feel like Beck can play based on what I saw in the preseason but man we won't know what we have 'til the bullets start flying for real. I don't want him to be the guy in the PG-13 movie everyone's *really* hoping makes it happen, but fuck, for the first game I'm going to be sitting whiteknuckled watching him, over-celebrating 10 yard completions really hoping he makes it.

[Reposado]

I heard someone make the point that maybe the weapons around him in Cincy the last couple of years weren't as good as we thought. As evidence, see Ochocinco in New England. He went to the franchise known for rehabilitating troubled careers, has the best QB in the game to throw to him, and still isn't contributing. Perhaps Palmer's decline wasn't Palmer's fault?

This make sense. Houshmandzadeh did all of nothing after leaving. Before TO signed with Cincy, he was viewed as done but he ended up putting up big numbers one final time.

[Kalbear]

Similarly, when Ocho went out with an injury Carson Palmer put up the best numbers of his season throwing to Shipley and the like.

Seeing Ocho's problems doing the right things at the right time I really wonder whether or not he was a big liability. It's much better to have a WR running the right routes than having someone running random routes.