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The northmen inside and outside Winterfell. Conspiracy? The GNC - The Grand Northern Conspiracy


Eyron

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Well, somewhere along the end of the thread I added that after the gift chapter I can see a possibility of the northmen not getting rid of Stannis, if he abandons the red god, the red priestess and the burning of people. But, perhaps the northmen at this point has no room for mercy or diplomacy. If Stannis recognises the independance of the north, he may have a chance.

At the end of ADwD Stannis needed the northmen more than the other way around, his army could not manage in the cold and snow, so perhaps he will bend before he breaks. Perhaps :D

But what about the possibility of the Northmen not knowing of Roose's involvement in the RW? What do you guys think about that? Because I think it's pretty much impossible. But that's a separate issue.

I hope I'll manage to catch up with all the posts in a day or two. :)

As to Stannis, I think that's what his character is all about. I think he will literally bend or break. Being a huge Stannis fan, I hope he bends over backwards if need be! :D

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Lummel (hi!), I could argue you're being a tad legalistic as well regarding the will. I agree it probably wouldn't have much legitimacy to the Iron Throne or even Westeros in general. But it serves another role, and I think a crucial one: it rallies the north under a Stark-appointed successor. I say 'Stark-appointed' allowing for the possibility that it isn't Jon. :)

You still keeping clean Kissedby fire ;)

Ho ho! So you want to out-legalistic me eh! :)

So what do you think?

In my opinion we've got the contents of Robb's will, which in my opinion can potentially be set aside because Robb is dead and his kingdom largely died with him.

In my realpolitik thinking the North is looking for a Stark. With no complications (so Jon and Sansa ruled out) and potentially prefereably male (this might be wrong and a disortorted picture becaue Manderly has granddaughters rather than grandsons to marry off). What is interesting is that Manderly opts for Rickon as the Stark he is reasonably sure he can lay his hands on, rather than Bran the Stark who technically is the Stark he shuld e looking for if he wants his true Leige Lord.

A more interesting question, but possibly one that GRRM will avoid is that if a lord with sons to marry off backed one of the stark girls and a lord with daughters to marry off back a stark son who would win out?

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Yes I would have to agree. I've really taking a liking to Stannis as the story has progressed, and would hate to see him get this close to uniting the North only to get betrayed by them... :bawl:

That being said I just have a feeling GRRM stuck in the "break before he bends" comment for a reason. Stannis is stubborn/prickly to a fault. He needs a pet or something so he can lighten up.

Can someone please get his grace a chinchilla, or a flying squirrel to keep in his pocket?!

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In my realpolitik thinking the North is looking for a Stark. With no complications (so Jon and Sansa ruled out) and potentially prefereably male (this might be wrong and a disortorted picture becaue Manderly has granddaughters rather than grandsons to marry off). What is interesting is that Manderly opts for Rickon as the Stark he is reasonably sure he can lay his hands on, rather than Bran the Stark who technically is the Stark he shuld e looking for if he wants his true Leige Lord.

I've gotta agree that Manderly is going for Rickon in large part because he thibks he will succeed in getting him. But if Manderly is thinking long-term he needs either Rickon or Bran+Rickon, the assumption being that Bran won't be siring children to continue the line.

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You still keeping clean Kissedby fire ;)

Ho ho! So you want to out-legalistic me eh! :)

So what do you think?

In my opinion we've got the contents of Robb's will, which in my opinion can potentially be set aside because Robb is dead and his kingdom largely died with him.

In my realpolitik thinking the North is looking for a Stark. With no complications (so Jon and Sansa ruled out) and potentially prefereably male (this might be wrong and a disortorted picture becaue Manderly has granddaughters rather than grandsons to marry off). What is interesting is that Manderly opts for Rickon as the Stark he is reasonably sure he can lay his hands on, rather than Bran the Stark who technically is the Stark he shuld e looking for if he wants his true Leige Lord.

A more interesting question, but possibly one that GRRM will avoid is that if a lord with sons to marry off backed one of the stark girls and a lord with daughters to marry off back a stark son who would win out?

Squeaky clean! ;)

I don't dispute that the legitimacy of Robb's will is questionable, and it all depends on who is the king who is supposed to put his 'seal of approval' in it. Not only that but we have heard from the man himself that 'succession in Westeros is not clear-cut'. Even looking at it that way, it's not a given that will is going to be put aside, tough. For instance, if Stannis becomes king (de facto), and the will names Jon the Stark heir I think there's a good chance he'll accept it. Ultimately, it becomes a matter of whether Stannis bends or breaks - either accept the secession of the North accepting Jon (or whoever was named by Robb) as King in the North thus retaining their support or he doesn't accept it, and literally breaks.

As to the north be looking for a Stark... Yeah, I agree. But Jon probably is a bona fide legitimate Stark. I also think the northmen are also pragmatic and therefore more likely not to fuss over Jon being a bastard - in case when all this goes down his true birth is still unknown. We have to consider that there will be some of the northern lords who will have met Jon and I think that will speak in his favour too. Jon has that gravitas that makes him resemble Ned, even of he's only Ned's nephew. And even if Robb didn't name him, I think there is a chance the Northmen will support it, depending on who is it. I don't know, I have heard arguments in favour of not naming Jon, and I suppose some of them make sense. I'll admit that I don't really see much sense at all, especially considering the situation at the time. Or better said, what Robb believed the situation to be.

My initial understanding of Manderly choosing Rickon was that it was a purely practical reason. Through Wex he learned where Rickom had gone, whereas he has no idea where Bran is or even if he's still alive. Manderly seems to be the most outraged by the RW and everything that followed. All the other northern lords seem to be... Well... Sulking? Or something. Manderly is the first we see that makes it perfectly clear how outraged he is. But I'm sure the others are too, just as much. It's just that, as northers they play it close to the chest. And when I say 'the other northerners' I'm definitely including Barbrey Dustin, probably as the head conspirator. :)

We also have the bits from GRRM's last interview regarding the north, and how you need someone 'special' and that the north is not for everyone. Damn straight! :P

As to your last paragraph, I have no idea what's the right answer. Actually, I don't think there is a right question. I think if such a situation arises, it will have to be judged on its own merits. :)

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I underlined the part that I find is most interesting.

Manderly's liege lord... Who would that be? Wex knew that both Bran and Rickon escaped and were alive after the fall of Winterfell. He just chose to follow Rickon and Osha supposedly. And Wyman knows too, since Wex told him.

Also if Manderly know about Robb's will, he knows who is really the heir to Winterfell and the King in the north. And I don't think that is Rickon.

He says that if Davos succeeds in smuggling back his liege lord, he will take Stannis as his king. So what if Rickon is not his liege lord, and he knows it?

Manderly knows that Bran and Rickon are alive, but only knows where Rickon is. If he knows Bran is alive then he knows Bran is his liege lord, not Rickon. So you may have a very good point here.

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I think Manderly has to be faster moving in his opposition to Bolton because they have already been fighting over the Hornwood inheritance, plus he seems to be the biggest Lord or one of them with the most men under his command so he's an obvious rival for power in the North to Bolton.

Still it would be callous of Manderly to bring back Rickon as Lord and leave Bran even though he knows he was alive. It doesn't sit with the family's loyalty to the Starks.

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Very glad to see this OP has got going again.

Tze very nice piece. I don't know about all of it, but I do think you are dead on about the wet nurse, and Mance having something going with the wildlings. They are the more alike then either is to anyone eles, and have most likely traded for years.

Again I don't know if everybody is on the same conspiracy. I do think there is at least one, more likely 2 different conspriacy that have common goals. If the wildlings and hill tribes are working on their own, that could be a third or a second part of one of them. At least some of the Hill clans know that Bran is alive. Manderly and the larger houses know that Bran and Rickon were alive. Mormont and some of those who escaped the RW, and/or Ironborn know about Rob's will.

I agree that Manderly is playing Davos, but once he gets Rickon it might be to have Davos come back and then to go looking for Bran. Manderly doesn't know that they don't know where Bran has gone.

IDK if they are planning on "turnning" on Stannis I don't quite think they are with him as much as he thinks. The ones that are working with Stannis are working for common cause, retake control of the North, and guarding the wall. If they know of Rob's will and know that Jon is at least suggesting that they help Stannis then they are doing what their "King" is telling them. Even if he doesn't know he's King.

I do think that the younger Mormont is trying to tell Jon something with her letter. He just did not get that there is a King in the North.

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I do think that the younger Mormont is trying to tell Jon something with her letter. He just did not get that there is a King in the North.

:idea:

I think you're right that there is likely more then 1 conspiracy going on here, though through the various links they could be coming together.

Conspiracy 1 - Manderly and Umber, retaking the North.

I think this is to do with their dislike of Bolton (maybe they know about his involvement, maybe not) and their hatred for the Freys, coupled with a desire for vengeance. We have seen how vehemently Manderly hate the whole RW thing and how his Houses' promise to the Starks is still very, very strong. I group Manderly with Umber because they were working together at Robb's request to build a fleet. Meaning this split "thing" with the Umber armies, Manderly likely knows about and it is a part of their plans. Manderly is willing to ally with Stannis but only behind closed doors for the moment and might be pulling a fast one with his wording (see above). One Umber army is with the Boltons but one is with Stannis.

Conspiracy 2 - Mormont and Glover, upholding the Will.

Mormont and Glover are somewhere, maybe at Greywater watch, maybe elsewhere. They must of heard about the RW by now and they must know of Bolton being the new Warden (yet have not come forward to acknowledge him). Bear Island has a change of leadership with Alysane leaving, presumably on orders. Alysane has allied with Stannis even though her younger sister replied to Stannis saying Bear Island only follows a Stark king, possibly sending a message that there is a Stark king still (see above)? There might be ties to the Cerwyns and Tallharts here too, as they were also at Deepwood Motte when Alysane and Stannis were. Alysane now has access to the Mountain Clans.

Conspiracy 3 - Mountain Clans and the Wildlings, moving the Wildlings south.

There is a lot of hints that the Wildlings, through Mance, have had lots of contact with the Mountain Clans prior to them trying to come south. There are hints that the 2 clan chiefs at the wall are not there for the reasons they say and are in fact meeting with the Wildlings, via Toregg and possibly Val. The clansmen have backed Stannis and are in a position to speak with the Northerns currently with Stannis, again hints that they are spending time with Alysane. Its possible that the Old Bear knew of these goings on, or not. Its possible that Tormund has been bringing Jon up to speed (they do seem to have a lot of trust for each other, where did this come from?). There are implied links between Tormund and Bear Island, possibly Tormund is Lady Maege's or Alysane's husband, or lover?

Tying it all together.

1. Manderly with Bolton, Umber with Bolton and with Stannis.

2. Mormont, Glover, Cerwyn, Tallhart with Stannis, possibly the Mountain Clans with Stannis, possibly Tormund with Jon.

3. Mance, Tormund, Val, Old Flint, The Norrey with Jon (though Mance is currently in Winterfell), possibly Mormont with Stannis.

The only link I can see with regards to what Manderly and the Umbers are up to is that one of the Umber armies is with Stannis, giving the Umbers the opportunity to speak with the Mountain Clans and with Alysane Mormont.

It seems there is someone from each possible "conspiracy" with Stannis while only those from conspriacy 1 are with Bolton and some from 2 and 3 with Jon at the Wall.

What don't we know yet?

If there are indeed 3 separate plans coming together or if there is just one spreading around or anything in between

How have they all been communicating?

What does each group actually know, about the RW, about each other, about the Will, etc?

Will they involve Stannis or betray him? (As others have said betraying Stannis doesn't really sit well, but it really depends on what these Northern lords want to achieve)

Who is named in that damn Will!

Edit: To clarify: The Mormont and Glovers that are with Stannis is Alysane and the men from Deepwood Motte, we still do not know where Lady Maege and Galbart Glover are.

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I think Manderly has to be faster moving in his opposition to Bolton because they have already been fighting over the Hornwood inheritance, plus he seems to be the biggest Lord or one of them with the most men under his command so he's an obvious rival for power in the North to Bolton.

Yes, I see your point about Manderly. I don't think we can call him 'Nimble Wyman'! :D

On the flip side, think 'The Tortoise and the Hare'. ;)

More on Roose:

I have to confess that I find the few glimpses we get into Roose's mind in ADwD absolutely fascinating. The instant we learn that Roose has decided to have the Grey Wedding - grey is not only the Stark colour in general but it's a colour deeply associated with the Starks (eye colour, winter), and one can argue that it's a 'grey wedding' in the sense of it being shady, hence the moniker. Where was I? Ah, right. Roose. The second he tells Ramsay that he's to wed 'Arya' in Winterfell I went :uhoh:

I've always felt that Winterfell is almost like a living being, an entity if you will.

It seemed to me that this was a perfect set-up. 'They're going to get trapped inside Winterfell, and Winterfell will eat them alive' was what came to my mind then, and now I'm even more convinced of this, even if metaphorically. We see that Roose is already being a little paranoid when he meets up with Ramsay at Moat Cailin.

(Lengthy quotes, sorry. But I think in terms of context, more is more.)

ADwD, Reek II

Collared and chained and back in rags again, Reek followed with the other dogs at Lord Ramsay’s heels when his lordship strode forth to greet his father. When the rider in the dark armor removed his helm, however, the face beneath was not one that Reek knew. Ramsay’s smile curdled at the sight, and anger flashed across his face. “What is this, some mockery?”

“Just caution,” whispered Roose Bolton, as he emerged from behind the curtains of the enclosed wagon.

Then we have Roose's isolation. Sure, the other northern lords give the appearance that they have accepted him, but we know (I hope) better! They way I see it, Roose is the only one in the North that actually is, for whatever reason, with the Iron Throne. He is completely isolated in north. Poor Roose, his wishes for a peaceful land are not going well for him. :D

I think the quote below illustrates this well, especially since GRRM's last interview. All the northern banners, with the lion and stag flying above them? I don’t think so! (not permanently anyway, you know what I mean)

ADwD, Reek III

Their short journey reached its end at the wooden walls of Barrow Hall. Banners flew from its square towers, flapping in the wind: the flayed man of the Dreadfort, the battle-axe of Cerwyn, Tallhart’s pines, the merman of Manderly, old Lord Locke’s crossed keys, the Umber giant and the stony hand of Flint, the Hornwood moose. For the Stouts, chevrony russet and gold, for Slate, a grey field within a double tressure white. Four horseheads proclaimed the four Ryswells of the Rills—one grey, one black, one gold, one brown. The jape was that the Ryswells could not even agree upon the color of their arms. Above them streamed the stag-and-lion of the boy who sat upon the Iron Throne a thousand leagues away.

And here of course. The shit isn't about to hit the fan because they don't have fans in

Westeros, but it's about to get all over the floor in Winterfell’s great hall. Literally.

ADwD, A Ghost in Winterfell

The deaths set Roose Bolton’s lords to quarreling openly in the Great Hall. Some were running short of patience. “How long must we sit here waiting for this king who never comes?” Ser Hosteen Frey demanded. “We should take the fight to Stannis and make an end to him.”

“Leave the castle?” croaked one-armed Harwood Stout. His tone suggested he would sooner have his remaining arm hacked off. “Would you have us charge blindly into the snow?”

“To fight Lord Stannis we would first need to find him,” Roose Ryswell pointed out. “Our scouts go out the Hunter’s Gate, but of late, none of them return.”

Lord Wyman Manderly slapped his massive belly. “White Harbor does not fear to ride with you, Ser Hosteen. Lead us out, and my knights will ride behind you.

Ser Hosteen turned on the fat man. “Close enough to drive a lance through my back, aye. Where are my kin, Manderly? Tell me that. Your guests, who brought your son back to you.”

“His bones, you mean.” Manderly speared a chunk of ham with his dagger. “I recall them well. Rhaegar of the round shoulders, with his glib tongue. Bold Ser Jared, so swift to draw his steel. Symond the spymaster, always clinking coins. They brought home Wendel’s bones. It was Tywin Lannister who returned Wylis to me, safe and whole, as he had promised. A man of his word, Lord Tywin, Seven save his soul.” Lord Wyman popped the meat into his mouth, chewed it noisily, smacked his lips, and said, “The road has many dangers, ser. I gave your brothers guest gifts when we took our leave of White Harbor. We swore we would meet again at the wedding. Many and more bore witness to our parting.”

“Many and more?” mocked Aenys Frey. “Or you and yours?”

“What are you suggesting, Frey?” The Lord of White Harbor wiped his mouth with his sleeve. “I do not like your tone, ser. No, not one bloody bit.”

“Step out into the yard, you sack of suet, and I’ll serve you all the bloody bits that you can stomach,” Ser Hosteen said.

Wyman Manderly laughed, but half a dozen of his knights were on their feet at once. It fell to Roger Ryswell and Barbrey Dustin to calm them with quiet words. Roose Bolton said nothing at all. But Theon Greyjoy saw a look in his pale eyes that he had never seen before—an uneasiness, even a hint of fear.

bold 1: Does Wyman say that because he knows it’s Mors outside? Have the horns been heard at this point? Were the horns a signal? Because if you’re surrounding a massive castle with a relatively small contingent, stealth should be key, right? So, I think the horns are definitely a signal for people inside Winterfell. Who, though? Which ones? Is Manderly one of them?

bold 2: Roose is afraid, he knows. I think that like we, he just doesn’t know who is with him and who is against him.

(short version: Roose is so screwed is not even funny)

Conspiracy-wise:

We have seen that Manderly and Robett Glover aren’t with Roose but other northerners don't know this. Some or all may suspect it, but I don't think any of them know it for sure at this point. So we have two ongoing conspiracies, and it's likely that conspirators on either side are unaware of the others. Manderly doesn't know what's going on with the other northerners, for all he knows they may be truly on Bolton's side, even if out of fear and nothing else. So he has to be careful, even after Wylis has been returned. I also don’t buy that Manderly’s motivation is to gain control as regent to a young Stark king. I’m sure he won’t mind being in a strong and powerful position but I don’t believe that hunger for power is what drives him.

To me, one the greatest differences between the northerner lords and the others is that they seem to understand the concept of ‘the lone wolf dies but the pack survives’ even if it’s on an unconscious level. It may have to do with the harsh climate, or the standard of leadership set by the Starks through millennia; it’s probably a combination of both and more.

Still it would be callous of Manderly to bring back Rickon as Lord and leave Bran even though he knows he was alive. It doesn't sit with the family's loyalty to the Starks.

But he doesn’t really, does he? He knows that by the time Wex last saw the boys they were both alive. He doesn’t know that Bran is still alive, he has no way of knowing that.

Manderly strikes me as being just as fiercely pro-Stark as the other northerners despite his southron ancestry. I think all of the northerners would do whatever they could to help any of the Stark kids. Remember why they joined Stannis? Sure, he honoured them and sought them out, he didn’t demand they burn their weirwoods, etc. That certainly helps, but I think most of all they want to rescue Ned’s little girl.

:)

typo

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er, that's why I was careful to use the past tense. All my subtly gone to waste :(

great post though :thumbsup: .

Tze pointed out the difference between the climate and environment in the North compared with Meereen. It is so harsh in the North that you have to stick together to survive the winter and I suspect that is an element in the Lord's thinking. The Starks could be trusted to bring the pack through the winter.

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Where? I'm lost! And I didn't even look back! :bawl:

Gotcha. I don't think it was callous, tbh. Given the current situation, what else could he have done? He doesn't know where or how Bran's gone, he doesn't even know if Bran is still alive. The way I see it, he is trying to get Rickon back to guarantee the Stark line but that doesn't mean he wouldn't acknowledge Bran or another Stark at a later date. I also don't see him pitting Bran and Rickon one against the other. :)

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Conspiracy-wise:

We have seen that Manderly and Robett Glover aren’t with Roose but other northerners don't know this.

Ah yes Robett Glover, this may be the elusive link I mentioned between Manderly and the others. If we assume that Lady Maege has been in contact with her kin why not Galbart with his, who is conveniently with Manderly?

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I have been going through the chapter where Wyman gets cut and Roose talks to him afterwards as if he is still capable of riding out, so I don't think he is hurt very badly. On the next page and a bit there is this which I found quite interesting;

Theon saw. "Winter is coming...."

Rowan gave him a hard look. "You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard's words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did -"

According to the wiki Rowan is a wildling spearwife, one of the 6 that accompany Abel to Winterfell. Does anyone else find that above quote a little to ... much/strong/loyal coming from a Wildling about Eddard?

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I've always felt that Winterfell is almost like a living being, an entity if you will.

It seemed to me that this was a perfect set-up. 'They're going to get trapped inside Winterfell, and Winterfell will eat them alive' was what came to my mind then, and now I'm even more convinced of this, even if metaphorically. We see that Roose is already being a little paranoid when he meets up with Ramsay at Moat Cailin.

(Lengthy quotes, sorry. But I think in terms of context, more is more.)

But he doesn’t really, does he? He knows that by the time Wex last saw the boys they were both alive. He doesn’t know that Bran is still alive, he has no way of knowing that.

Manderly strikes me as being just as fiercely pro-Stark as the other northerners despite his southron ancestry. I think all of the northerners would do whatever they could to help any of the Stark kids. Remember why they joined Stannis? Sure, he honoured them and sought them out, he didn’t demand they burn their weirwoods, etc. That certainly helps, but I think most of all they want to rescue Ned’s little girl.

Well to go a little of topic, I think its the turncoat chapter Theon says something about the missing swords being a bad omen, and the swords are to protect the crypts. I have a theory that Hodor's random sword wasn't so random, and that he let something/someone out and that is the Ghost of WF.

As far as Wex/Manderly going for Rickon, as I was trying to say they might think that Rickon/Osha may help with or at least have some kind of lead to finding Bran. They don't have any other leads to Brans where abouts so they have to go for Rickon.

I think your a little off on the last part. Imo that it is because of their southern ancestry they are so loyal. After a 1,000 years they are true North men. As men of the North they remember who helped them, gave them a home, made them bannerman when they were cast out of the Reach.

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Perhaps this was mentioned earlier but I could not find it. Mance was at winterfell for the feast for King Robert and bragged to Jon that he "took the measure of the stark children and their wolf pups". Given that Mance is observant it is hard to believe that he didnt recognize 'arya' as a fake immediately. So why did he as Abel go through with the plans to steal the fake Arya? Was he part of some conspiracy or did he have his own purposes?

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I have been going through the chapter where Wyman gets cut and Roose talks to him afterwards as if he is still capable of riding out, so I don't think he is hurt very badly. On the next page and a bit there is this which I found quite interesting;

According to the wiki Rowan is a wildling spearwife, one of the 6 that accompany Abel to Winterfell. Does anyone else find that above quote a little to ... much/strong/loyal coming from a Wildling about Eddard?

Yeah I find that odd now that you mention it. Could any of these "spearwives" be from the hill clans (flint/norrey/liddle), and does that add any fuel to our "Mance is secretly allied to the Hill clans" theory?

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II think your a little off on the last part. Imo that it is because of their southern ancestry they are so loyal. After a 1,000 years they are true North men. As men of the North they remember who helped them, gave them a home, made them bannerman when they were cast out of the Reach.

Sorry, I don't follow. What do you disagree with, exactly?

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