The northmen inside and outside Winterfell. Conspiracy? The GNC - The Grand Northern Conspiracy

[Jagerbott]

Hello everyone, new poster here ^_^

I've been reading this thread for quite some time and absolutely love the idea of a Great Northern Conspiracy brewing with everyone (minus the Karstarks and the Boltons) and the fact that it's headed by Manderley is even more impressive to me.

One thing that I'd like to point out about Robb's will (and the idea that it legitimizes Jon Snow into Jon Stark and names him heir of Winterfell) is that I think doing so would completely take Jon (if he's still alive, which I think he is!) out of the battle ("The Long Night") that's about to happen. Many people already see Jon as a great leader, even though he's not really a Stark, and to move him from The Wall to Winterfell completely takes away from all of the hard work GRRM put into making Jon into a complete character with his own plot story that's separate from those of the other Starks. I feel like if Jon's not there, at The Wall, leading the fight against The Others, then everything that's happened thus far at The Wall would be for nothing and I really doubt GRRM would do something like that (then again, this is the same man who killed one of the main main characters in the very first book; you never really know with writers like that lol). I think, if anything, while the will will legitimize Jon into a Stark and name him heir, I think he'll reject the "heir of Winterfell" part (but everyone will still recognize him as that, regardless because even though he's "Ned's Bastard", he'll still be seen, to The North, as Ned's child, no questions asked) and that's why Manderely sends Davos to Skagos to get Rickon.

Also, in terms of people saying that The North owes Stannis...On the one hand, they do but only in the fact that he's trying to get a Stark in Winterfell (albeit not really because he thinks it's "the right thing to do", but moreso to get The North on his side once he takes over the Iron Throne; we have to remember that Stannis saw Robb as his enemy as well as all of those [The Northerners] who joined his side). Aside from that, Stannis is really just doing this for show and I highly doubt the North would really stand for someone who took to destroying their weirwoods as well as refuting The Old Gods. It seems like the Northerner's don't really care who sits the Iron Throne, as long as they leave the North to their own devices like they do to Dorne (and I really feel like Westeros is going to separate into seven kingdoms like they were before).

Again, this is just my opinion so :blush:

[King Tam Stark]

i believe the Northern Conspiracy will unfold and then the stark children including jon will complete there arc by using the vast array of wonderful skills they have been developing in there journey for there own specific finale and roles in the 'happy ending' to the story where the good guys and bad guys get what they deserve, thats how these things always end right?

there own story has seen them all learn specific skills that will be needed for there future roles

jon is set to rule but unsure what/where as yet the NW/Winterfell/The North/the IT? and his warging will be developed and used within this purpose

sansas character has the potential to be develop spectacularly she is learning from one of the best players of the game in littlefinger and spent time in KL being played by almost everyone and suffering heartache after heartache and at some point she will snap, hell hath no fury like a woman scorned so the sansa we have known as a girl may be a very different proposition as sansa the woman which makes me think she has alot of scores to settle and its been foreshadowed she will rule winterfell which may be the case but the specific skills she has learned dont fit with that her skills would be more useful playing the GOT but from where?

bran has some greater purpose than even ruling that will no doubt help his siblings and the rest of westeros

rickon possibly set to rule winterfell/the north or maybe just a red herring

arya the skills she has been mastering are surely only for the purpose of killing and somebody very important but who or even how many?

[Bear Islander]

To the second part of your post, I think that the law of guest right has a way of enforcing itself. The Freys are forever tainted with their treachery and will be the target of hate and despise as long as there are Northmen around. Maybe there is a sort of punishment, maybe with help of the Old Gods, or maybe just a neverending feud. The Starks and other northmen will likely get some partial revenge at least, it all points that way, to me.

As time goes on, between the BWOB, Stoneheart and attrition in the North, the Freys go the way of the Reynes of Castamere. Ironic since old Walder was so prolific.

[Naughtius]

Just want to say this was a great read. I've started re-reading again for the third time, hopefully more sinks in and I can pick up on things this time.

[ladydewinter]

Good points all! I believe I did read in one book that a grandmother was a flynt. But, for sure from a mountain clan and it always struck me as odd they never sought help from here,but in the north getting places is not so easy. Anyone know what I am talking about? Sorry, if I am wrong I have read and reread listened to books on tape watched the show etc. Thanks-

[Jayce]

... One thing that I'd like to point out about Robb's will (and the idea that it legitimizes Jon Snow into Jon Stark and names him heir of Winterfell) is that I think doing so would completely take Jon (if he's still alive, which I think he is!) out of the battle ("The Long Night") that's about to happen. Many people already see Jon as a great leader, even though he's not really a Stark, and to move him from The Wall to Winterfell completely takes away from all of the hard work GRRM put into making Jon into a complete character with his own plot story that's separate from those of the other Starks. I feel like if Jon's not there, at The Wall, leading the fight against The Others, then everything that's happened thus far at The Wall would be for nothing and I really doubt GRRM would do something like that (then again, this is the same man who killed one of the main main characters in the very first book; you never really know with writers like that lol). I think, if anything, while the will will legitimize Jon into a Stark and name him heir, I think he'll reject the "heir of Winterfell" part (but everyone will still recognize him as that, regardless because even though he's "Ned's Bastard", he'll still be seen, to The North, as Ned's child, no questions asked) and that's why Manderely sends Davos to Skagos to get Rickon....

Hello and welcome.

Have you considered that the Wall may yet be destroyed and therefore the fight may need to fall back to Winterfell (or further) before anything can be won, therefore Jon is likely going south in which ever role befalls him?

[Jayce]

The more I have read across these boards regarding this topic the more I am convinced that Mance has had a hand (direct or indirect) in bringing the north together (specifically regarding the Flints and Norreys, those clans) since before we knew of him in the books. I predict this 'Northern Conspiracy' goes back further then we know albeit it likely started for a different purpose and has changed as time, who is in charge, and events went on.

I am really looking forward to reading how this part of the story will conclude.

[King Tam Stark]

Ive read quite a bit on the GNC but cant remember if its ever been mentioned that one possible means the northern houses have of communicating could be connected somehow to the weirwood network the high majority of them worship the old gods and may know how to do this so could communicate with each other from afar via the trees, this could also explain why the Manderly's have had to be so central while the others allegedly plot in secret

[drunken giant]

Do you think Rickon will be involved in this.

I think Rickon and Davos may come over with a few thousand from Skagos and take the Dreadfort there cannot be many people defending it maybe save old Nan and the other prisoners from Winterfell

[HannibalStark]

Right Before Theon and Jeyne jumps off the outer wall he hears a warhorn from the north of Winterfell. Not the drums as before so I'm guessing Umber is no longer alone out there. It got me to thinking about the other lords and ladys present at Winterfell, are they really bound to Bolton and Freys by hostages? The one we know for sure is Umber and they have sided already, Whoresbane with Bolton and Mors with Stannis.

I think a smart move from the Northmen would be to attack as soon as the Freys are starting to come through the gate. The Freys would have Manderly at their back, the gate could be kept open by people on the inside and the Boltons would be trapped. That is why I think that we will see Winterfell under attack early in TWOW. But where do the northern houses present at Winterfell stand? And are they prepared to kill their host? All those who are at Winterfell are bound by the law of guest right. At least Manderly seem to care enough about that to wait until his Frey guests had departed before killing them (I assume they are dead, pork pie? Yeah sure).

I have a hunch this is why Roose Bolton sent the Freys and Manderlys men out to meet Stannis (he thinks) while he sit safely inside, with hostages.

We later learn that Stannis' host were still trapped in the snow some days march away from Winterfell so the warhorn belonged to someone else.

The northmen that to me seem to be loyal (comparatively) to Roose Bolton, besides his own bannermen are:

Lady Dustin

Lord Locke

The Ryswells

One of the wild cards of the northmen is old Lord Locke.

I noticed in a reread of Davos chapters that Lord Locke has someone at Manderlys court, who expressed his opinion about Ramsay being a monster. This Locke person is unknown to us but GRRM bothered to give us details of his coat of arms, the crossed bronze keys on white and purple.

It suggests Old lord Locke is in on the plot with Manderly, and perhaps other northmen too. We don't know of any heirs, and the man is very old, so maybe he has little to loose by going against the Boltons.

On the other hand the Locke at Manderlys court could be a spy for Bolton.

Lady Dustin is of uncertain loyalty but some things she did speaks for her conspiring against Bolton.

I always thought it strange how Lady Dustin sought out Theon to talk, and always revealing so much. Her pointing out how craven she thinks Manderly really is made me suspicious. Why is she even interested in talking to Theon? Maybe she hopes to conceal the plot against the Boltons, thinking Theon feeds the information back to Ramsay. I think she really hated Eddard, but she loved Brandon so she may have a soft spot for Starks still. She definitely hates Ramsay for killing Domeric and she is not too happy with Roose Bolton for making Ramsay his heir. So if I was her I would think better a Stark as liege lord, who would be in debt to me for securing him Winterfell and restoring his family to it, than a Bolton hated by everyone.

The quarrelsome Ryswells...

Roose Ryswell sent out scouts but none of them returned. Maybe they were killed by other northmen around the area or they were sent out to them with information. Boltons own scouts seems to return so... However, since he is cousin to Lady Dustins father he could support Bolton for the hope of lordship.

Lady Dustins brothers Roger and Rickard Ryswell are also of unsure loyalty.

The other northmen in Winterfell does not seem to have any reason to be loyal to Bolton, since their houses are almost extinct or we know they are conspiring against Bolton like Manderly. Tallharts, Lady Cerwyn and Hornwoods should want Ramsay and Roose dead ASAP for what they have done to their families, and their remaining children are hostages to the Ironmen at Torrhen's Square, not the Boltons. Whoresbane Umber is there because of the Greatjon being hostage, but now that Mors is with Stannis it could well be useless to keep up pretence.

So, it's possible all of the north, or a large part of it, have secretly been conspiring against the Boltons, not just Manderly and Robett Glover. And it's possible they all have been informed about Robbs decree from Maege Mormont (who is alive according to her daughter Alysane) or Galbart Glover, and Rickons return from the dead from Manderly. At the end of ADWD Rickon could be sitting in White Harbour and a host of northmen could be surrounding Winterfell. Manderly has some ten thousand men waiting for his command and they could be closing in by now. That is what he could have been waiting for, munching away on his pies.

Roose is not stupid, he knows some plot exists. He could have a great backup plan that he thinks spoils all of the northmens efforts... Like ruining Robbs decree (if it says Jon=King) by telling the north that Jon let the King-Beyond the Wall live, despite all the trouble the northmen have with wildlings, despite all the hate that has been building up for thousands of years.

But Rickons claim he can't ruin. Or the fact that Theon and Jeyne got away and can destroy the Bolton claim to Winterfell by telling the north she is not Arya.

What do you think?

I think Barb Dustin is the least loyal to Bolton...she is one of the only ones to defy them openly referring to the newly made Bolton as the Bastard and other comments she makes to Theon-Reek. Also, why in the hell spend and hour, in a snow storm digging out the entrance to the crypts if she doesn't have a good reason(s) to be there? ...and I don't think making sure Ned's bones is really a reason....she has always wanted to be a Stark..... I think she is a} confirming the story about the Stark boys hiding in the crypts meaning I have a feeling she is in with Manderly and b} I think she is prodding Theon for any info he might let slip...which makes sense because Theon had spent half+ his life in Winterfell and of all those there has the best knowledge of the place c} possibly looking for another entrance into Winterfell, possibly from the crypts.

She has been involved with the Starks and grown/lived in the shadow of Winterfell her whole life. I think that her 'alliance' with Roose gives her room other anti-Bolton Northman don't have giving her the ability to get info, confirm stories and move about the grounds without suspicion. Roose tells Ramsey that they have a weak/tenative alliance with Barbs based on a (I think feigned) dislike of the Starks. This mean Bolton will go more out of his way to give her what she wants and will be looking less at her to be a conspirator.

[CameandWhent]

I think the reason no one is objecting to "Jarya Spork" is because if any rebellion in the works now fails, they can use the deception as a reason to not back any heirs of Ramsay's claim to the throne of the North.

I think there is a very good chance Roose is/was going to off his bastard son when Jarya gave birth to a male heir, but I need to go back and see when Roose is drinking Hippocras, etc.

I believe in the Food Code...The Old Foods, before the Lamprey Pie invasion brought the Seven Courses to Westeros.

[mrlukeduke]

What I want to know is Mance's ultimate end-game, post surviving Winterfell and getting his people south to relative safety. Melisandre says the wildlings are a a doomed people, she sees (or interprets) as much in her visions. Does Mance mean to repopulate Brandon's Gift? Will he become a Northern Lord somewhere, installed into some holdfast or castle keep? How would that sit with his neighbours?! I'm not sure where his people could go without some degree of slow naturalisation.

Also, it seems to me that Stannis has ordered supplies, funds, troops and specifically archers from Braavos in order to secure the south, not the north. I suspect that he is aware that there is some pro-Stark conspiracy unfolding in or around Winterfell, but he doesn't have the details nor fully grasp the degree of it. I also think it's why he may be about to fake his own death. He's going to watch the pieces fall and test the loyalties of various groups, saving the strength of his men where he can.

Will Winterfell just shut its gates on Stannis? Many have suggested they'd need a friendly southron King, but Stannis won't accept any King in or of the North, if that's what the GN conspirators mean to accomplish through Jon or Rickon.

It might be we end up with a small Battle of Agincourt type situation in the ice, mud and slush at the Crofter's Village. Except Stannis won't have his trained archers and mercenaries yet – so I wonder if he'll use the Karstarks somehow. (But he seems headed that way anyway, being a decent tactician, to a military reformer in the works.) It might be Stannis can hold back the Karstark lords as collateral to ensure their captains and generals turn their forces on the unsuspecting Freys and don't join up with them or give away the game.

[Bonesaw]

Lady Dustin lets it be known her hatred for the Starks. But, her sister and nephew died, I think she suspects Ramsey and holds Roose responsible. Wouldn't it be sweet if Lady Dustin plunges a dagger in Ramsey or Roose's neck? She seems to be his closest ally, yet I don't believe her. She knows the Boltons will rape and pillage the North under Ramsey when/if Roose dies. Bolton has too many enemies to hold the North, or survive long. :drool:

[Bonesaw]

Yes I believe that also. No way those Northerners will follow Stannis. He's a means to an end, with Rickon being crowned King or Jon arising free from his NW vows. I still believe Jon is AA reborn, and will not die.

[bemused]

The wildlings are not " Mance's people " anymore. They are becoming Jon's people. Mance got them to the wall , but they had to bend the knee to Stannis to get through.. Jon is getting them through the wall , and it's Jon who is finding ways of getting them more or less amicably settled.

Mance will have to become subordinate to Jon , as Tormund now is..but I think that will be OK with Mance. He knows what's at stake , and that Jon can accomplish things that he can not.

I think the North will be willing to ally with Stannis, since he has helped them ..so long as he leaves them their autonomy ( under whatever agreement ) but I question how much military support they will be able to give him as he moves on south.

I don't think he will take Winterfell , I think the North will take it themselves for / under the Starks. I don't think he was a means to and end , but rather an outside actor who came along trying to make a move at the same time as they were moving, inadvertently threatening to disrupt their plan ... so they had to send people to him (e.g., Alysanne, Mors Umber,survivors of the battle when Ramsay took WF) and let him in on the fringes of their plan (e.g.,Davos and Manderly) in an effort at damage control. If Stannis enters WF , he will do so as their guest and ally , not as the conquering hero...Don't forget they had no way of knowing that he offered WF to Jon, or that he was , in his own way, looking for someone with a trace of Stark heritage to install (Karstark )..and none of those things would have been good enough anyway..even his offer to Jon would have entailed swearing fealty to him and accepting R'hllor.

I think Stannis will accept what he has to accept in order to press on for the Iron Throne.. whether that's telling himself he's left the north in care of a "client" king, or prince, duke , what have you..

[addicted to snow]

- Roose Bolton has some sort of trick up his sleeve, that I think is rooted in sorcery...

- The Mountain Clans Followed Stannis, so perhaps other Northern Houses would submit to Stannis as their KIng? Perhaps under the same or similar terms that Manderly requested. Though there are so very many parties involved in the North now that it is difficult theorize future events, especially with Stannis faking his death...

-

[mrlukeduke]

Wouldn't it be sweet if Lady Dustin plunges a dagger in Ramsey or Roose's neck? She seems to be his closest ally, yet I don't believe her. She knows the Boltons will rape and pillage the North under Ramsey when/if Roose dies. Bolton has too many enemies to hold the North, or survive long.

From The Winds of Winter, Chapter IV 'The Stabby Lady'

"Well my Lady Barbrey, it seems that you are... Dustin time, no?" Stannis had tittered.

Foolish. Puns were unacceptable in the north – an affront to the gods. He had faltered at last, and they all knew it.

[Ghosts Lunch]

Right Before Theon and Jeyne jumps off the outer wall he hears a warhorn from the north of Winterfell. Not the drums as before so I'm guessing Umber is no longer alone out there. It got me to thinking about the other lords and ladys present at Winterfell, are they really bound to Bolton and Freys by hostages? The one we know for sure is Umber and they have sided already, Whoresbane with Bolton and Mors with Stannis.

I think a smart move from the Northmen would be to attack as soon as the Freys are starting to come through the gate. The Freys would have Manderly at their back, the gate could be kept open by people on the inside and the Boltons would be trapped. That is why I think that we will see Winterfell under attack early in TWOW. But where do the northern houses present at Winterfell stand? And are they prepared to kill their host? All those who are at Winterfell are bound by the law of guest right. At least Manderly seem to care enough about that to wait until his Frey guests had departed before killing them (I assume they are dead, pork pie? Yeah sure).

I have a hunch this is why Roose Bolton sent the Freys and Manderlys men out to meet Stannis (he thinks) while he sit safely inside, with hostages.

We later learn that Stannis' host were still trapped in the snow some days march away from Winterfell so the warhorn belonged to someone else.

The northmen that to me seem to be loyal (comparatively) to Roose Bolton, besides his own bannermen are:

Lady Dustin

Lord Locke

The Ryswells

One of the wild cards of the northmen is old Lord Locke.

I noticed in a reread of Davos chapters that Lord Locke has someone at Manderlys court, who expressed his opinion about Ramsay being a monster. This Locke person is unknown to us but GRRM bothered to give us details of his coat of arms, the crossed bronze keys on white and purple.

It suggests Old lord Locke is in on the plot with Manderly, and perhaps other northmen too. We don't know of any heirs, and the man is very old, so maybe he has little to loose by going against the Boltons.

On the other hand the Locke at Manderlys court could be a spy for Bolton.

Lady Dustin is of uncertain loyalty but some things she did speaks for her conspiring against Bolton.

I always thought it strange how Lady Dustin sought out Theon to talk, and always revealing so much. Her pointing out how craven she thinks Manderly really is made me suspicious. Why is she even interested in talking to Theon? Maybe she hopes to conceal the plot against the Boltons, thinking Theon feeds the information back to Ramsay. I think she really hated Eddard, but she loved Brandon so she may have a soft spot for Starks still. She definitely hates Ramsay for killing Domeric and she is not too happy with Roose Bolton for making Ramsay his heir. So if I was her I would think better a Stark as liege lord, who would be in debt to me for securing him Winterfell and restoring his family to it, than a Bolton hated by everyone.

The quarrelsome Ryswells...

Roose Ryswell sent out scouts but none of them returned. Maybe they were killed by other northmen around the area or they were sent out to them with information. Boltons own scouts seems to return so... However, since he is cousin to Lady Dustins father he could support Bolton for the hope of lordship.

Lady Dustins brothers Roger and Rickard Ryswell are also of unsure loyalty.

The other northmen in Winterfell does not seem to have any reason to be loyal to Bolton, since their houses are almost extinct or we know they are conspiring against Bolton like Manderly. Tallharts, Lady Cerwyn and Hornwoods should want Ramsay and Roose dead ASAP for what they have done to their families, and their remaining children are hostages to the Ironmen at Torrhen's Square, not the Boltons. Whoresbane Umber is there because of the Greatjon being hostage, but now that Mors is with Stannis it could well be useless to keep up pretence.

So, it's possible all of the north, or a large part of it, have secretly been conspiring against the Boltons, not just Manderly and Robett Glover. And it's possible they all have been informed about Robbs decree from Maege Mormont (who is alive according to her daughter Alysane) or Galbart Glover, and Rickons return from the dead from Manderly. At the end of ADWD Rickon could be sitting in White Harbour and a host of northmen could be surrounding Winterfell. Manderly has some ten thousand men waiting for his command and they could be closing in by now. That is what he could have been waiting for, munching away on his pies.

Roose is not stupid, he knows some plot exists. He could have a great backup plan that he thinks spoils all of the northmens efforts... Like ruining Robbs decree (if it says Jon=King) by telling the north that Jon let the King-Beyond the Wall live, despite all the trouble the northmen have with wildlings, despite all the hate that has been building up for thousands of years.

But Rickons claim he can't ruin. Or the fact that Theon and Jeyne got away and can destroy the Bolton claim to Winterfell by telling the north she is not Arya.

What do you think?

I certainly think the Northern Lords will be conspiring against Bolton

Firstly because they all know what Ramsay is after seeing what happened with lady Hornwood, and that's before the torture. They most certainly won't abide him as warden in the North once Roose is gone

Secondly it has to be remembered the Northern Lords pretty much pushed Robb into being the King in the North (and riverlands), not the other way round, so there is a lot of groundswell support for independence, which means the Starks.

Which basically means Rickon because Manderly will be aware that with Rickon trumps all, he probably plans to marry him to the little girl who was vocal about Robb Stark when Davos was there (same age) because everyone knows Bran won't be able to produce heirs (which explains why he is sending Davos off to get Rickon instead of Bran), basically even if Rickon doesen't become King or at the very least Warden in the North under King Stannis because of Bran, his children most certainly will. Manderly is keeping his fleet up his sleeve, he may be too fat to sit a horse but he is being rather clever and hedging his bets

Thirdly, as for Jon Snow being King in the North, Robbs will was based on the assumption that Bran and Rickon were dead. Given Jon is in the Nights Watch and can't take a crown I don't think he could accept his will. If resurrected or reborn he may be able to, but rather than King in the North I actually think there is some sense to the notion that he will end up King of all Westeros if the R+L=J theory is correct and R married L before he was born (only reason there would be 3 Kings Guard at Tower of joy including Lord Commander would be to protect a legitimate heir)

[Ghosts Lunch]

What I want to know is Mance's ultimate end-game, post surviving Winterfell and getting his people south to relative safety. Melisandre says the wildlings are a a doomed people, she sees (or interprets) as much in her visions. Does Mance mean to repopulate Brandon's Gift? Will he become a Northern Lord somewhere, installed into some holdfast or castle keep? How would that sit with his neighbours?! I'm not sure where his people could go without some degree of slow naturalisation.

Also, it seems to me that Stannis has ordered supplies, funds, troops and specifically archers from Braavos in order to secure the south, not the north. I suspect that he is aware that there is some pro-Stark conspiracy unfolding in or around Winterfell, but he doesn't have the details nor fully grasp the degree of it. I also think it's why he may be about to fake his own death. He's going to watch the pieces fall and test the loyalties of various groups, saving the strength of his men where he can.

Will Winterfell just shut its gates on Stannis? Many have suggested they'd need a friendly southron King, but Stannis won't accept any King in or of the North, if that's what the GN conspirators mean to accomplish through Jon or Rickon.

It might be we end up with a small Battle of Agincourt type situation in the ice, mud and slush at the Crofter's Village. Except Stannis won't have his trained archers and mercenaries yet – so I wonder if he'll use the Karstarks somehow. (But he seems headed that way anyway, being a decent tactician, to a military reformer in the works.) It might be Stannis can hold back the Karstark lords as collateral to ensure their captains and generals turn their forces on the unsuspecting Freys and don't join up with them or give away the game.

The wildlings are not " Mance's people " anymore. They are becoming Jon's people. Mance got them to the wall , but they had to bend the knee to Stannis to get through.. Jon is getting them through the wall , and it's Jon who is finding ways of getting them more or less amicably settled.

Mance will have to become subordinate to Jon , as Tormund now is..but I think that will be OK with Mance. He knows what's at stake , and that Jon can accomplish things that he can not.

I think the North will be willing to ally with Stannis, since he has helped them ..so long as he leaves them their autonomy ( under whatever agreement ) but I question how much military support they will be able to give him as he moves on south.

I don't think he will take Winterfell , I think the North will take it themselves for / under the Starks. I don't think he was a means to and end , but rather an outside actor who came along trying to make a move at the same time as they were moving, inadvertently threatening to disrupt their plan ... so they had to send people to him (e.g., Alysanne, Mors Umber,survivors of the battle when Ramsay took WF) and let him in on the fringes of their plan (e.g.,Davos and Manderly) in an effort at damage control. If Stannis enters WF , he will do so as their guest and ally , not as the conquering hero...Don't forget they had no way of knowing that he offered WF to Jon, or that he was , in his own way, looking for someone with a trace of Stark heritage to install (Karstark )..and none of those things would have been good enough anyway..even his offer to Jon would have entailed swearing fealty to him and accepting R'hllor.

I think Stannis will accept what he has to accept in order to press on for the Iron Throne.. whether that's telling himself he's left the north in care of a "client" king, or prince, duke , what have you..

Yeah I suspect there is something of an odd role reversal occuring, Jon seems to be slowly building up respect/support amongst the Wildings, or at least a substantial faction of them, so I expect they'll be the first army (of sorts) he'll lead upon his resurrection when free of his vows. Of course being expert winter fighters and scavengers they will be most potent in the current conditions which aren't suited to orderly battle tactics which enabled Stannis to smash them at the wall

On the other side of the coin, it is worth remembering that Mance is still actually a sworn brother of the Nights Watch, so theoretically he can be elected as Lord Commander. The NW is now heavily outnumbered by the Wildlings, they can theoretically be settled in the Wall and Gift but they will require someone who commands their respect and after Jon (who is no longer a NW member) the only person who can do that it Mance

I think Melisandres observations weren't so much about the people themselves, but the wildling way of life is becoming extinct. There is something highly symbolic in the Magnarr of Then marrying Alys Karstark, the whole thing was rather odd/interesting in terms of the willingness and openness of both of them, eg she taking on a wildling husband and he willing to adapt to the civilised customs of kneelers (eg he did the cloak swapping thing and didn't "steal her" as such)

[Ghosts Lunch]

@kissbyfire, I think that you got it. The oldest sister went with Mama bear south, and died at the RW. Mama did at least some of what Robb told her to do, and has either meet up with her other girls, or sent them to do other things.

As to why they would work with Stannis, I think I said this before but Jon has been working on get Stannis help. If he is infacted named King or even King Regent until either Bran or Rickon comes of age, his trying to get Stannis help would be in effect an order. Those who are working with Stannis would be loyal to their King.

I also want to point out that Davos last chapter is about 30 of the 72 chapters is aDwD. That would be months since Davos was given the choice to go get Rickon. It is not only possible but likely that he has come back. If Manderly knows that Rickon is safe, it would explain some of his actions. by Theons last chapter Manderly almost seems like he is provoking the Freys, and offers send his men out in to the winter, to possibley to advoid conflect with guess laws, or to go to Stannis.

Oh and 1 last thing. Robb's plan was to offer 100 men to the NW for Jons release. The north would need to get 100 men for the offer, who better then Bolton, and Frey men?

Yeah there is something "fishy" going on, first Stannis gets a withering letter from Bear Island from the youngest Mormont spitting his overtures in his face and declaring for Robb, then later on on an Asha chapter an older Mormont sister is suddenly with Stannis

Maege obviously won't accept the Boltons after the Red Wedding, but it doesen't seem they are exactly enthusiastic about Stannis either

Hi folks,

I posted this as a knew topic though it should have likely been placed here.

I have a super crackpot theory and i'd like to see what people think. If this has already been elaborated my apologies...i couldn't find it...so here goes...

I think Mance is the author of the pink letter and moreover he has eliminated/neutralized both the Boltons and the Freys and w/ some allied northern lords is in control of Winterfell looking to put a Stark back in Winterfell.

here's how...

1. Before the Escape i believe Mance persuades a number of northern lords to back his ploy.

• Mance is persuasive as hell - he persuaded the wildlings to join forces, and survived stannis's justice, and Jon can't help but like him.
• I think at least some of the spearwives are daughters of northern lords this gives him a useful bargaining piece/good faith gesture to win over the northerns. Mance isn't stupid he selected the spearwives by name indicating they are well know (what spearwife would be more well know than a northern lords daughter) he would also be choosing northerners for their understanding of the cultural norms and possible alliances that they could forge once inside WF.
• I think that Mance offers to free fake "Arya" if in return some of the northern lords upon hearing that she has escaped turn cloak and betray the Boltons/Freys.
• i think the hooded man is someone from Mors camp -not Mors himself theon's description of Mors in the sample chapter didn't seam to indicate he was the same person as the hooded man- likely one of the many scouts that Roose Ryswell refers to as leaving the hunter's gate but not returning (p.609 ADwD hardcopy). I think the hooded man is there to meet w/ Whoresbane to let him know Mors is outside and to co-ordinate both inside and outside WF. Furthermore I figure the Hooded man got into WF via a wildling rope ladder placed by a spearwife who's taking a quick trip outside the walls.
• The Northern Lords during the interrogation of Theon are notably pointed w/ the freys. Specifically Lady Dustin and Roger Ryswell are harsh despite having been the voices of moderation in the past. But more striking is the difference of attitude in the Great Hall the morning of the escape - the Boltons are angry, arguing and fearful, while at the same time Roger Ryswell and Harwood Stout are laughing and making japes.

2. We all know Mance frees someone he knows to be a Fake Arya using essentially 2 spearwives and Theon. The question is why?

• Mance knows that arya's a fake, theon thinks he's a fool for saving the wrong girl and repeatedly points it out in the escape chapter, however mance like thoen knows that arya is the only thing holding the northern lords to the Boltons/Freys without her the Bolton claim to WF evaporates. The other northern lords know this as well - keep in mind the constant references to Jenye having the wrong eyes compared to Tyrion who recognized that at least Aegon has the right eyes. Everyone knows "Arya" is a Fake. However no-one will make a move for fear of being flayed. Thus Mance offers to save "Arya" so long as they back him when it's revealed that she's gone - if the ploy fails he'll be the one who gets flayed if it succeeds the North can have it's revenge.
• Freyna was sent w/ the rope because, I think, she's Mors Umber's daughter. She is big and stupid, both are Umber traits. Reuniting Mors w/ his daughter would be a huge plus for Mance winning the favor of the Northern Lords/Umber clan.
• The escape therefore serves a number of functions. It removes the Bolton claim to WF, allows for the creation of alliances, and the ensuing chaos within WF will allow Mance to brake the Bolton hold on the north.

3. Mance will use the Chaos created by Aenys Frey's death and the escape of Fake "Arya" to take the Boltons and Freys by surprise.

• When Theon leaves the Great Hall w/ the spearwives to free fake "arya" Mance was on the high table w/in striking distance of the Boltons.
• we also know Mance is a gifted fighter capable of holding his own. he is more than confident, and rightly so, that Ramsay can try as he like but he's no match for the mighty Mance.
• w/ the benefit of surprise and some secret allies such as Whoresbane, Rywell, Stout, Manderly, Hornwood's men, and perhaps some Locke's men (see p.251 hardcopy ADwD the Lockes don't like Ramsay),
• Three of the spearwives headed back toward the Great Hall to help Mance.
• I think the news of Aenys' death in Mors' pit outside the Main Gate of WF and the News of Jenye's escape will reach the Great Hall at the same time causing massive chaos. Mance will strike killing Roose and Ramsay while the northern lords rise up and eliminate the Freys and Boltons in the Great Hall, the North gets its vengeance with a mini red-wedding.
• Outside in the yard the Manderlys will surround the remaining Frey forces, who've regrouped in the Yard awaiting further instruction after the false start, there they will be trample under the heavy horse and knights of the White Harbor.
• No more Boltons. No more Freys. Mance and host of northern lords holding WF.

4. Mance w/ the Northern Lords wrote the Pink Letter.

• they have all the necessary knowledge.
• they have motive. Mance wants his army of wildlings, his son and sister-in-law back. He and the Northern Lords want hostages to use against Stannis. The lords of the north have all made it clear they don't want Stannis as king. Having his wife, daughter and priest would be good bargaining tools to bring Stannis to yield - if he survives the snows to even make it to WF. and i'm sure Mance has a bone to pick w/ Stannis. He crushed Mance's army, took him captive, interrogated him at length, took his child, caged his people, likely threatened to burn him alive and represents all that drove him from the Nights Watch.
• There is also no threat of Ramsay or Roose getting any of the hostages/freed captives because the Boltons are dead - thus the authors of the letter have no cause for actual fear they want Jon to come down to WF for their own reasons.
• Some of the northern lords probably want Jon in WF either as a superstition, a back up plan, or some sort of revenge (lady dustin must know of jons possible parentage and the fact that he was part of the party that made it back from the south w/ Ned Stark, she may also feel like it's a way of getting revenge on Cat by trying to place a non-tully/bastard in WF she could at least have some small victory in this).

5. This explains some things that don't make sense to me.

• This explains how Theon and Jenye could jump from the walls of WF and be found immediately by Mors, he knew they would be coming from above the Battlements gate.
• It also explains how they could jump, Mors could find them, interrogate them, get word that the Main Gate was opening, smile and then presumably ride around WF to confirm that the Freys had fallen in his trap, then meet up w/ the bravossi banker, tell him what's up and send him Stannis all w/ out a battle or any direct contact w/ Frey, Bolton forces, or any confirmation that the Manderlys actually exited WF despite being at the easiest gate to open, and how Tycho could make it to Stannis despite being slowed by 6 Iron Born, 2 "Gifts" who probably aren't fit to ride, and 2 Nights watch which no doubt helps a lot. If Ramsay is alive it's hard to believe he/his dogs wouldn't catch up to His Reek and His Bride which would be priority #1 for both him and Roose. All of this was possible because inside WF the Boltons and the Freys are getting torn to pieces.
• This explains why there is no report of a battle in the Theon sample chapter (or anywhere outside of the Pink Letter). If there was a battle outside the walls of WF between the Freys and Crowsfood' men then Stannis would have known from Tycho and he would have asked Theon about it to confirm what Tycho had reported as he did w/ other info brought by the Bravossi Banker. Furthermore if there was a battle outside the walls of WF it's hard to believe that Mors could survive w/ as small and unseasoned a force as the one he commands. therefore it's safe to assume the Freys turned around and went back inside, their leader/brain is dead and lord stupid needs a new horse the gate closes behind them - all for the better. Mors and his new "Gifts" return to camp Tycho shows up Mors sends him on his way w/ the "Gifts".
• This also explains the letter. It's not from a desperate Mance on the run, but a victorious Mance w/ a major stronghold and the backing Northnern Lords eager to bring Stannis to heal and install a real Stark back in WF.
• this also explains the hooded man. A missing scout makes sense, it was pointed out that the scouts go missing the same chapter that yellow dick is killed, the stables collapse, the hooded man shows up and the spearwives take theon to mance and the Mors starts sounding his warhorn and drums.

What struck me most about the letter was the way it was signed, previously we heard Ramsay announced as "Lord of Hornwood and heir of the Dreadfort" whereas the letter was signed "Lord of Winterfell". This either suggests he has killed Roose (and his "pregnant wife") as it is rather odd the letter is from him and not Roose, and he is using title "Lord of Winterfell" to try and emit a notion of northern authority

or

It suggests that these theories about Mance actually being successful hold some weight, we know from the training yard duel Mance is very capable, the reader is meant to know that via the duel and not merely hear about it via the Spearwives, so he is unlikely to be easily overcome. It may actually take one of the best fighers in Westeros to best him (he obviously bested all other wildling contenders like Tormund) - none of whom are actually present in the cramped hall at Winterfell. Being in wildling territory for so long means he would be highly suited to any sudden combat in blizzard conditions that occurs within the Winterfell castle walls

I am now inclined to think Mance may actually be behind the letter, I can't think of why Ramsay would be so pertinent as to ask specifically about Stannis's family AND Mance's, sure he's a nut but he's a well-informed nut it seems which is a bit suspicious given Abel is in the guise of Rattleshirt and event he spearwives may not be aware it's really him.

Plus the use of "I want my bride back" as opposed to I want Arya back is curious, along with the title "Wildling Princess" which Mance or no one except Stannis's court would consider an applicable description of Val, and of course if Ramsay and Roose had smashed Stannis then Theon and Jeyne couldn't have gotten far (certainly not as far as the Wall) and he would likely use hunting dogs to find them rather than assuming they had reached Jon, the letter does seem to be designed to provoking Jon into some form of action

On the other side, Melisandre would likely be aware if the Glamor was taken off or tampered with, or she would see in the fires. That may be why she said to see him at once