R+L=J v.17

[Ghost714]

Ned also tore down the TOJ and built 8 grave markers to mark the 8 people that died there. Him and Howland Reed doing all this would take time with just the two of them, so it's safe to say they did not travel emediatly. Then they went to Starfall to return Dawn, Arthur Dayne's sword. So they could have held up there for awhile. During that time is also when Ned could have talked to anyone who might be involved in covering up Jon's parentage. You say that a Gilly's baby surviving is crap. But this is a different world the people are much more tuff, they had to be to survive. So I think your theory is the only thing that's crapola. You can subscribe to dragons and magic and white walking zombie things. But not a few day old baby surviving a journey in a wagon or on a horse with a wetnurse, like seriously ? Come on? What are you talking about ?

[Ghost714]

The bloody bed was a metaphor... Martin was hinting at what happened to Lyanna without saying.. she died in childbirth. I'm sure that there was a wetnurse/ midwife (cough.. Wylla.. cough) tending to her.

That's exactly what I believe.

[Tree Warg]

I just dont believe Lyanna died in childbirth. I get you guys don't like my theory but, I just dont think it is as simple as: Ned and the boys are riding up, Lyanna goes into labor, skirmish ensues, Ned races up to find a new baby boy (in Wylla's arms) a dying Lyanna reaching out to Ned, she explains everything to Ned. Lyanna fades away. Ned looks to the heavens and screams.

Boring. Snoring. Lame. Been there done that. Star Wars a million other movies/stories. Martin is better than that or I am a scruffy nerfherder.....

[Tree Warg]

Ned also tore down the TOJ and built 8 grave markers to mark the 8 people that died there. Him and Howland Reed doing all this would take time with just the two of them, so it's safe to say they did not travel emediatly. Then they went to Starfall to return Dawn, Arthur Dayne's sword. So they could have held up there for awhile. During that time is also when Ned could have talked to anyone who might be involved in covering up Jon's parentage. You say that a Gilly's baby surviving is crap. But this is a different world the people are much more tuff, they had to be to survive. So I think your theory is the only thing that's crapola. You can subscribe to dragons and magic and white walking zombie things. But not a few day old baby surviving a journey in a wagon or on a horse with a wetnurse, like seriously ? Come on? What are you talking about ?

Yeah. Your right Ghost. A new born infant survivng a subzero blizzard with no shelter, food nor water. I am ridiculous.

I would like to point out that everyone seems to agree that R+L=J in this discussion. That we can agree on.

I believe Jon was born at least 3 months before Ned arrives at the Tower of Joy.

Maybe Lyanna is greivoulsy wounded trying to stop the fight between Ned and KG3? I

[Ghost714]

It's not boring because it took like 5 books for us to get all the pieces to have an educated guess of what really happen'd. And when has this happen'd before???

We originally think Ned is Jon's father only to find out his mother was really Ned's sister who was with Rhaegar willingly not by force. Making Jon a Stark and a Targaryen. The promise, Ned's longtime cover up, all the decoy possible moms (Wylla, Ashara) I mean what about all that is boring . Where has this been done before? I think the fact that Only one person thinks that this is boring, that means its for the most part very entertaining for all most all of us. So you can't say your theory is right based on ours being to boring, When we all think our theory is entertaining and logical.

[corbon]

I am a scruffy nerfherder.....

I am ridiculous.

You had me at hello. :cool4:

(ok, not quite then)

[keog]

Alright guys, lets all chill. It seems like everybody is going under different assumptions.

Tree Warg---what blizzard? Do you mean Craster's kid, or the possible Jon? They are in the borderlands to Dorne in this discussion (Lyanna/Ned/Jon), so no blizzards there. Maybe Craster's kid, but that would be a silly argument since we know he lives? What's up?

Also, I am not sure where you are getting 3 months from. Out of curiosity, where? It seems like we had a closer timeline described earlier. If you have some back up to the 3 month deal, let us know so we can be on the same page.

And, once again, it's a book - so some poetic license with regard to the baby traveling. If GRRM winds up saying it is so, it's his story (likewise if Tree Warg is right). We have to let things get written first to find out. (and Tree Warg, please give up on the baby not traveling deal-I get the point you want an alternative narrative, but you are wrong about babies being little fragile tea-cups. They can survive. We have only had fuzzy heated blankets and neonatal incubators for a short period of time. People have lived in extremely cold climates for millenia. Nomadic tribes were the norm until the last couple of millenia. Etc.)

I feel good about R+L=J as well. Timeline is tough to nail down, but help us understand your point of view. And, I agree, you could be totally right about Lyanna fighting, etc-but Ned has had a pretty consistent character throughout, so I don't think he could possibly kill his sister in anger. He hasn't really shown any anger other than at Petyr when he says he has Cat at a brothel. I don't think it's Ned love to think it's not possible, it's just against his character. I think he is tragically flawed in his honor, like Stannis is with his justice.

Crannog poison? My back would hurt stretching that far. I don't think GRRM would go that weird.

Where was this thread going anyway? It seems like everyone agrees that R+L=J at this point. I guess it's hashing out the where and how?

[Ghost714]

If Jon was born 3 months before Ned got to the TOJ wouldn't he be older than Robb? Not vise versa?

[Ghost714]

Yeah. Your right Ghost. A new born infant survivng a subzero blizzard with no shelter, food nor water. I am ridiculous.

I would like to point out that everyone seems to agree that R+L=J in this discussion. That we can agree on.

I believe Jon was born at least 3 months before Ned arrives at the Tower of Joy.

Maybe Lyanna is greivoulsy wounded trying to stop the fight between Ned and KG3? I

I really don't know how you can say a baby can't survive at such a young age in freezing wether and stuff, when we know it happened with Gilly's baby. Not to mention I was talking about Jon anyways, and the conditions were much more realistic. But ya you believe magic, dragons, and the Others can exist in this world...but baby's traveling right after birth and you say no way? Again when we know that this happened in these books and in world history. I don't get it.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

If Jon was born 3 months before Ned got to the TOJ wouldn't he be older than Robb? Not vise versa?

I believe so, yes. There's no way the three months thing is correct.

Dany was born 9 months after the sack of King's Landing (see here). Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany, which means that he was born anywhere from a month to probably a few weeks after the sack, or at the same time of the sack at the absolute earliest (unlikely given Lyanna's condition; if she'd delivered him too long before Ned arrived, she'd probably already be dead). Factor in riding time and breaking the Storm's End siege, and it's absolutely possible that Ned would've arrived at the Tower of Joy very, very soon after Jon's birth. He would've had up to a month to get there.

[SFDanny]

Again, a 3 day old baby cannot travel. He is older than that. Probably 3 months old, I would assume. How else is Ned going to move the baby. Plus, he has time to dismantle the tower, with a day or two old baby??? C'mon people???

A healthy three day old baby can travel if its mother or a suitable wet-nurse is with it. The important part is regular feeding and warmth for the child. And no, it is highly unlikely that Ned arrives at the Tower of Joy some three to four months after the sack. Jon maybe born elsewhere, Starfall for instance, and Ned sees him for the first time there some two to three months after he is born, but if Jon is born at the ToJ and Ned finds him there it is an amazingly long time for him to arrive in the Prince's Pass tower from his journey from King's Landing and Storm's End. Remember we know when Jon is born - Martin tells us. He is born around the time of the sack or about one month later. How do we know this? Because the text tells us Daenerys is born "nine moons" after Rhaella's and Viserys's flight from King's Landing which takes place right before the sack. Martin tells us Jon is "eight to nine months" older than Daenerys, so we know Jon is born, as I said, around the time of the sack or a month or so later. So for your timeframe to be true Ned would have to arrive from his departure of King's Landing and Storm's End some three to four months after his journey starts. That's far too long if he departs from Storm's End and goes directly to the Tower. If he sits around Storm's End or Ned takes some time before finds out where his sister is, then it might work.

To your larger point, the "childbirth complications" scenario only really works for the cause of Lyanna's death if Jon is born eight, not nine, months prior to Daenerys's birth and Ned arrives shortly, meaning within about 10 days or so, after his birth OR the child Lyanna gives birth to is some one other than Jon.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

To your larger point, the "childbirth complications" scenario only really works for the cause of Lyanna's death if Jon is born eight, not nine, months prior to Daenerys's birth and Ned arrives shortly, meaning within about 10 days or so, after his birth OR the child Lyanna gives birth to is some one other than Jon.

Given how, uh, fresh the child-birthing mess seems to be, I'd also subscribe more to the 8-month dating.

[SFDanny]

Given how, uh, fresh the child-birthing mess seems to be, I'd also subscribe more to the 8-month dating.

So do I. It fits with all the clues Martin has given us, but the blood in the bed is unlikely to be the afterbirth. What is likely in the childbirth complications scenario is that Jon is born before Ned arrives by up to 10 days or so, and Lyanna develops complications over that time span that include fever and hemorrhaging which led to her death - the classic symptoms of puerperal fever. I'd say it's unlikely she gives birth as Ned rides up - or how do we explain the fever?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

So do I. It fits with all the clues Martin has given us, but the blood in the bed is unlikely to be the afterbirth. What is likely in the childbirth complications scenario is that Jon is born before Ned arrives by up to 10 days or so, and Lyanna develops complications over that time span that include fever and hemorrhaging which led to her death - the classic symptoms of puerperal fever. I'd say it's unlikely she gives birth as Ned rides up - or how do we explain the fever?

Yeah, that's how I interpret it, too. So Jon is a few days old when Ned arrives — which somewhat cuts down on the complaint about how convenient it'd be if Ned rode up right as Lyanna was giving birth — but the 3-month thing is way incorrect.

[SFDanny]

Yeah, that's how I interpret it, too. So Jon is a few days old when Ned arrives — which somewhat cuts down on the complaint about how convenient it'd be if Ned rode up right as Lyanna was giving birth — but the 3-month thing is way incorrect.

I'd say the idea that Jon is three months old when Ned rides up and finds him at the Tower of Joy, with Lyanna dying shortly thereafter is highly unlikely. One has to suppose Ned took a very long time to get there and then explain Lyanna's death from other causes. There is one way it works that others have advanced. That is if Jon is born shortly before Ned gets to the Tower of Joy, but he is gone already. The idea is that Ashara was at the Tower and took Jon and his wet-nurse to Starfall before Ned gets there. My problem with this is then how do we explain why all three of the Kingsguard are with Lyanna instead of at least some of them with Ashara and the newborn child? Doesn't make sense to me, but if it did happen that way then Ned's first encounter with Jon would be weeks or even months later depending on how long it takes Ned to pull down the tower, build the cairns, and travel to Starfall.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'd say the idea that Jon is three months old when Ned rides up and finds him at the Tower of Joy, with Lyanna dying shortly thereafter is highly unlikely. One has to suppose Ned took a very long time to get there and then explain Lyanna's death from other causes. There is one way it works that others have advanced. That is if Jon is born shortly before Ned gets to the Tower of Joy, but he is gone already. The idea is that Ashara was at the Tower and took Jon and his wet-nurse to Starfall before Ned gets there. My problem with this is then how do we explain why all three of the Kingsguard are with Lyanna instead of at least some of them with Ashara and the newborn child? Doesn't make sense to me, but if it did happen that way then Ned's first encounter with Jon would be weeks or even months later depending on how long it takes Ned to pull down the tower, build the cairns, and travel to Starfall.

Yeah I have a hard time buying that. The three Kingsguard at the Tower indicate that Jon himself is still there.

[alienarea]

Is Robb older than Jon or vice versa? Where is that stated in the books? Thank you.

[Dragonfish]

Is Robb older than Jon or vice versa? Where is that stated in the books? Thank you.

Jon is said to be younger than Robb. It's mentioned a couple times, but here's one example from Ned's second chapter:

"[...] I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men.'

'Gods have mercy, you barely knew Catelyn.'

'I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child.'"

It's clear that Ned had already married Catelyn and conceived Robb by the time he is supposed to have conceived Jon. Of course, assuming R+L=J, that is only the "official" story. We still don't know if Jon is truly older or younger than Robb.

(Incidentally, this passage also demonstrates why the Lord of Sweetsister's story in ADWD is most likely false. Ned had no reason to lie to Robert about when Jon was conceived if he's the father, so the story of him conceiving Jon on a fisherman's daughter early on in the war, before he even met Catelyn, is most likely just a wholly fabricated rumor.)

[FanTasy]

The bloody bed was a metaphor... Martin was hinting at what happened to Lyanna without saying.. she died in childbirth. I'm sure that there was a wetnurse/ midwife (cough.. Wylla.. cough) tending to her.

Posssibly Hey guys, is there someone with a Kindle (Edit: e-book) around? I remember there's somewhere in the text describing Lyanna with "gore" on her dress, but I can't find the phrase. I thought when I read it that there could be something more to this bloody bed thing. Or maybe it has been a very messy birth.

I don't think Ned would kill Lyanna, but you can't exclude the possibility. He could give her 'mercy'.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Posssibly Hey guys, is there someone with a Kindle (Edit: e-book) around? I remember there's somewhere in the text describing Lyanna with "gore" on her dress, but I can't find the phrase. I thought when I read it that there could be something more to this bloody bed thing. Or maybe it has been a very messy birth.

I don't think Ned would kill Lyanna, but you can't exclude the possibility. He could give her 'mercy'.

I believe it's when Theon sees Lyanna at the "feast of the dead," and everyone has their manner of death about them. Robert's innards are hanging out, Ned's headless, Robb and Grey Wind come in bleeding from wounds, etc. I think it's in Clash of Kings. Theon describes Lyanna as having gore on her white (?) dress.

I think people are underestimating and/or completely unaware of how bloody giving birth really is. There can be a lot of blood in a normal delivery, let alone one that results in fever and/or hemorrhaging.