Aurane Waters - Tyrell to the bone?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Come to think of it, didn't Aurane raise the issue of dragons in the Small Council? I'm too lazy to look.

He did, yeah. He was summarily laughed off.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

Grand Tyrell conspiracy just looks so stupid.

Why would they risk imprison Margaery herself when she would be naked in the prison? :-/

Aurane simply is working for someone else. Why would Tyrells want their own man as the lord Admiral of the Iron Fleet?(if that's what it is called)

[Sand Snake No. 9]

He did, yeah. He was summarily laughed off.

He's a former enemy, he looks like Targ, he's talking about dragons, and he's ignored. Smart, that small council.

[ElizaMartell]

I like the idea of Aurane taking the ships off to Dany. It would almost be poetic.

[Zezibesh]

I find it the likelist that he is one of Varys's pawns. The way he handled the dragon "issue" and mentioned it to the council made it seem like he meant it to be laughed off, so any further rumors would be dismissed. He has probably been offered the Velaryon lands for his service, and I could see Varys wanting to give Dany some ships.

[carmela28]

Aurane played Cersei quite well. His appointment to the small council had disaster written all over it.

It's unclear what he has to gain by allying himself with the Tyrells, unless it was something he wouldn't normally have access to as a bastard.

Unless the Tyrells are working on a Plan B behind the scenes, I'm not sure what he has to gain. Its certainly suspicious that he was the one to deliver the news to Cersei of Loras' battle at Dragonstone. I've suspected that he had an allegiance with the Tyrells but without a Tyrell POV, we are potentially without crucial information.

Now, wouldn't it be sweet if the ships Dany needs so much to conquer the Iron Throne were providedby the Lannisters themselves? :-)

That was my thought as well when I read about the "missing" ships. And it would be very sweet.

He's a former enemy, he looks like Targ, he's talking about dragons, and he's ignored. Smart, that small council.

Amazing, isn't it.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

I wonder if Aurane is going to present himself to Danaerys as a suitor, with the Crown's navy as his bride price. Why not? Everyone else is, and at least in the past Targs actually have married Valeryons, although in Aurane's case there's that messy bastard business. Oh well. I'm sure we'll see those ships again, coming over the horizon just in time for someone in the midst of battle to say "oh, fuck."

[LadyoftheNorth72]

Do we have any ideas on Dany's opinions where bastards are concerned? I never got the impression that Drogo came with much of a pedigree. Of course, she had little choice in that marriage, but her taste in men so far has seemed to have less to do with their legitimacy than their virility. Is it possible that it jist isn't much of an issue to the Mother of Dragons, and this is one of those areas where she feels she can follow her heart and/or head and sell herself to the highest bidder, rather than the most politically acceptable?

[jarl the climber]

I don't think we can say with any certianty what Aurane is up to. It could even be that he was in touch with Sallador Saan, Mereen is a possibility but it would be harder for him to win over his men to this, somehow he has to get all the sailors and captians to go along with him. Maybe he just lied to them about his orders. Going to Eastwatch probaly wouldn't be popular, its bloody cold up there, Mereen is a dangerous and long trip, setting up with Saan in the Stepstones sounds like a winner. Cersei said he had an interest in Dragonstone maybe him and Saan will try to take it back in Stannises name of course. We also don't know what is going on in Driftmark, I think his Father survived. There is just to many unknowns, we don't even really have a clear picture of what happened on Dragonstone.

Do we have any ideas on Dany's opinions where bastards are concerned? I never got the impression that Drogo came with much of a pedigree. Of course, she had little choice in that marriage, but her taste in men so far has seemed to have less to do with their legitimacy than their virility. Is it possible that it jist isn't much of an issue to the Mother of Dragons, and this is one of those areas where she feels she can follow her heart and/or head and sell herself to the highest bidder, rather than the most politically acceptable?

I think because of her own background, growing up with Viserys raising her and no parents or money and spys/assasins following her, she probaly isn't really prejudiced against bastards like a lot of other highborn people. So far she has married for political reasons.

[Sevumar]

I wonder if Aurane is going to present himself to Danaerys as a suitor, with the Crown's navy as his bride price. Why not? Everyone else is, and at least in the past Targs actually have married Valeryons, although in Aurane's case there's that messy bastard business.

As a queen, and a claimant to the Iron Throne, wouldn't Dany be able to make Aurane the same offer that Stannis made Jon? Legitimization in return for a pledge of fealty? You've pointed out the Velaryon history of marrying into the Targaryen family, so that's a point in Aurane's column. Combine that with a currently underage Lord Monterys Velaryon, whose family had served a rival clamaint, and Aurane could see his way to becoming not just legitimate, but a lord in his own right.

I don't think that the navy in his possession is going to be enough to get very many people to Westeros, but it could certainly supplement Victarion's fleet if Dany manages to win his allegiance. I don't know if Vic would stick around while Dany courted someone else, but anything is possible.

[verona stark]

For a while, I argued that Aurane Waters was going to sail across the world to find Dany. She so desperately needs a large fleet; and he just happens to have an entire fleet on his hands. No one knows where's he's going or where he is. That would be pretty sweet for her.

But I don't want that. Half of the characters are trying to find Dany and are sailing to her. She's just going to turn them all down because she's obsessed with Daario and for whatever other reasons, and then all that searching for her will be pointless. (I'm looking at you, burnt to a crisp Quentyn!) Besides, she's already got a fleet sailing towards her right now: Victarion Greyjoy's.

With that being said, I'd completely forgotten that he'd fought on Stannis' side in the beginning and at the Battle of Blackwater. And, guess who also is in desperate need of a new fleet? Stannis Baratheon. His fleet was partially destroyed and Saan took the rest of it. Stannis is a very capable seaman and naval captain. Seeing as how Aurane and his father's House either are or were sworn to Stannis, perhaps Aurane is going to take his vengeance on the crown by returning to his original king. That would be brilliant. He gets captured; "swears fealty" to Joffrey; somehow gets on the small council thanks to Cersei's absurd hate for the Tyrells because they're mirror images of the Lannisters; gets them to build a whole new awesome fleet; and then steals said fleet so he can give them to Stannis. What a nice shiny return gift that would be. It would definitely give Stannis the edge he needs and has never had this entire series.

I want it!

[LadyoftheNorth72]

Just to be clear, I am not into the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy ... I am not even sure what it is lol.

The only reason I think Aurane might have been working with the Tyrells to some extent is because he is the one who brought Cersei the tale of Loras' taking of Dragonstone, and the more I have thought about that, the more convinced I have become that there is something hinky going on there. But it is also perfectly possible that Aurane brought the false news of Dragonstone at the Tyrell's behest, and then simply seized a likely opportunity to steal the Lannister fleet and take it off to rejoin Stannis. I am not sure HOW he is going to rejoin Stannis, since he is utterly landbound at the moment; or why Aurane would cooperate with a false tale that might reach Stannis' ears and dishearten him (to think he has lost Dragonstone), but there may be some logic to it that will be explained in WOW.

[jarl the climber]

The thing we have to keep in mind is that the last 2 books run concurrently, Dragonstone fell, if it did fall, around the time Stannis was marching on Winterfell. Saan left with Davos at the very beginning of aDwD and dropped him off on the Sisters. Around this time the Redwyne fleet is arriving in Blackwater Bay. It would probaly make sense for Saan to head to the Stepstones at this point, he doesn't want to have anything to do with the Redwyne fleet. Even though Saan has left Stannises service, he still has documents giving him authority to disrupt and tax commerce, he mentions this to Davos in ASOS. This gives him some sort of legal claim for his piracy. Now Aurane is named Lord Admiral, he never mentions anything in the coucil about Saan returning or leaving Stannis, Aurane is an Admiral in name only without ships, there are less than a dozen left after the battle of the Blackwater, so he proposes building ships, Cersei agrees because she doesn't want to be dependent on the Redwyne fleet. This is when we first see him, I think at this point he is trying to find out which way the wind blows, he quickly sees that her council is incompetent and that her and the Tyrells don't get along. He mentions various rumors he hears about the Golden Company and dragons but is ignored by the council. Hes seems to follow a policy of brown nosing Cersei, there is no evidence that he had any relations with the Tyrells. Now lets say at some point he hears that Saan is back in the Stepstones, this probaly happens around the time the Ironborn attack the Reach. The Ironborn attack is good news for him and so is the descision to assault Dragonstone instead of starving it out. When the Redwyne fleet departs he has control of the strongest naval force in the area. When Marge is arrested he takes his fleet out to stop Mace Tyrell from crossing the Blackwater if he should break off his seige of Storms End and head north on Cerseis orders. When he hears that Cersei is arrested too, he heads out to sea.

The question now is where is he going? Remember he has to get the captians and the crews to go along with this. I don't think he would go to Eastwatch. Unless he has some sort of relatioship with Varys that we don't know about he probaly isn't heading towards Dany and if he is in league with Varys it might be better if he is doing something to support Aegon, so lets say he heads toward the Stepstones and hooks up with Saan. Saan has a writ from Stannis, Aurane proposes that they use it to prey on shipping in the Blackwater Bay, which is now defenseless. They can use Driftmark as thier base, Driftmark is ruled by a 6 year old rerlative. They might even retake Dragonstone for Stannis. Of course he could do this and then offer the services of his fleet to Aegon in return for Dragonstone if he is in league with Varys. Cersei said he was interested in taking Dragonstone as his seat. This all speculative but Dragonstone and having ships is what seems to motivate him, he will go with who gives him this.

[LadyoftheNorth72]

The Ironborn attack is good news for him and so is the descision to assault Dragonstone instead of starving it out.

I am not certain the assault on Dragonstone was the best news for him. If he is still a Stannis loyalist, then he is required to captain Sweet Cersei and to assist in taking one of Stannis' strongholds ...not something Stannis is likely to forgive, no matter what the reasoning behind it. IMO Stannis will see the gift of a few dromonds as paltry recompense for losing Dragonstone. If Aurane had simply said "no, none of the ships are ready to go," then he could have made the taking of Dragonstone much harder for the Lannisters. So I am inclined to believe that Aurane does not intend to rejoin Stannis. He is likely to receive an admiralty as thanks and then be burned at the stake as punishment.

This also does not explain why Aurane himself comes to tell Cersei the story of the fall of Dragonstone, or why no ravens or other messengers have arrived ahead of him.

[jarl the climber]

I think that all Aurane did was take Ser Loras across the Bay to lead the attack, the army was all ready there seiging the castle, it was just a matter of time before they ran out of food. He said that Ser Loras turned a bloodless victory into a costly one. The reason he returned with the news is that he knew it would please Cersei, part of his brown nosing policy. We can't rule out that he is lying or bending the truth. Dragonstone is just a couple of days sail from Kings Landing, he could've gotten thier before a Raven, a ship doesn't have to stop and eat or sleep. We also havn't heard that they didn't get ravens from Dragonstone, but I agree we don't completly know what happened there. IMO Aurane is going to sell himself to the highest bidder and that probaly won't be Stannis but for now Stannis would have no way of stopping him from saying that he is acting in his name.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

I just took a look at a map of Westeros and the coast of Essos, and it appears that the the Stepstones are quite close to Griffin's Roost and Storm's End. Maybe Aurane will sail the Crown's ships in support of Aegon. :D We readers would still have the pleasure of seeing the Lannisters and the Tyrells being attacked with their own ships without any annoying detour to Meeren.

I'm glad I looked at that map -- I had Essos upside-down in my mind.

[jarl the climber]

I spent yesterday skimming AFFC pondering his conversations with Cersei and the best theory I can come up with is that he is an oppurtunist who will sell himself to the highest bidder in the long run, it seems like Aegon would probaly be the one to go the farthest plus Aurane looks part Targaryean so maybe his parentage could play a role in his desicion but that is pure speculation.

[Elaena Targaryen]

Ok, so I am due for a re-read, so let me know if my impression is wrong. When I first read about Aurane and how Cersei thought he looked like Rhaegar I expected a love affair to start. Then she made him admiral and a seat on the small concil. Who was it that protested his appointment? I can't remember. I think it was obvious that she was in to him but I don't remember him ever flirting with her. So this was a factor in why I thought maybe something was going on with Aurane and Loras. It is very hard to guess what Aurane's motivations might be, but if we suspect that Loras is not as injured as we have been told, then why wouldn't they be in on something together. If Loras is lying, if Aurane lied for Loras, then they are up to something.

I also think he might show up with Dany, but so many are going to anyway. I like the idea of Aurane helping Aegon, that could work. My only concern is who is going to oppose the Iron Born and who will be our POV?

[jarl the climber]

It was Jamie who opposed his appointment, Pycelle protested the choices he made to captian the ships and the means of financing the building of them. I really hope we get a POV from Dragonstone early in the next book, it will clear a lot of things up. I think Samwell will be our POV for whats going on in the Reach with the Ironborn. Aeron Greyjoy is also trying to raise resistance to Euron on the Iron Islands themselves. Can't rule out Theon and Asha.

[Lady Octarina]

Okay, I really don't remember it, but does anyone else confirms the state Loras is in, or the victory in Dragonstone? Any "trustworthy"Tyrell man? Because he might as well be lying about that; Loras could even be dead, for all we know, and Dragonstone still be held by Stannis forces. If he truly is on Stannis side, that wouldn't be too hard to imagine. Though I do agree it's more likely he's simply an opportunistic bastard (no pun intended).

Btw, the absence of any news from ravens, I think it could only mean they have no raven left on Dragonstone, whether because no one bothered to take some (which is unlikely, but not impossible, since it's so close to KL) or because they died for some reason, doesn't matter, they wouldn't have ravens available anyway.