Aurane Waters - Tyrell to the bone?

[jarl the climber]

Maester Pylos was Dragonstones Maester, he didn't go with Stannis to the wall. He would have had ravens there but he would have used them for the defenders. Margery seemed to believe Ser loras injuries were real, I guess she could have been faking it and if she is she is a master mummerer.

[LadyoftheNorth72]

Okay, I really don't remember it, but does anyone else confirms the state Loras is in, or the victory in Dragonstone?

I am in the middle of a reread of AFFC, and discovered this in Jaime VII:

"The war was all but won. Dragonstone had fallen and Storm's End would soon enough, he could not doubt, and Stannis was welcome to the Wall."

So either because it is common knowledge or because he has received specific word from someone, Jaime believes without a doubt that Dragonstone has indeed fallen. Since he has been wandering hither and yon in the field, and since this thought immediately precedes his receiving the raven from Cersei/Qyburn regarding Cersei's imprisonment, I am inclined to take this as evidence that it is generally common knowledge that Dragonstone has fallen, and that indeed it has.

Whether Loras was anywhere near it at the time, or injured or not, is still an open question.

[jarl the climber]

There is a scene in aDwD, I think its Davos 2, he is at the tavern in White Harbor engaging in conversation with the patrons, They are discussing Viserys death, one patron questions whether thjis happened, the tavern owner replies that just because he didn't see it does not mean that it didn't happen. Don't know if the author was trying to tell us something but we know how unreliable some of these reports and rumors are.Its interesting this conversation came up in a Davos Pov someone who is famously believed dead.

[Darth Vader's Bastard]

When I first read, I was sure he sailed away to join up with Dany

[cuendillar]

Cersei's reaction to the fall of the Shield Islands was to just shrug it off as completely insignificant, in spite of being told of their strategical importance. This is (I think) the same scene where Loras volunteers for the Dragonstone expedition to free the Redwyne fleet to fight the Ironborn.

My first thought when hearing of Aurane's disappearance shortly afterwards was that he had taken the royal fleet to fight Euron, now that no paranoid strategically incompentent queen could intervene. He certainly have the option of even more ambitious plans, but stopping the raids against the Reach would secure him huge favours in the seemingly inevitable Tyrell regency. As the Iron Fleet is in Slaver's Bay, he may have enough force to threaten Pyke itself - and it's very likely that the Tyrells will depose the Greyjoys for good if possible. Both Balon and Euron were just too much trouble to be worth it.

Bastard of Driftmark -> Lord of the Iron Islands would be a carrier path worth some risktaking.

[LuisDantas]

Every time I think of the Dromonds, I think of how expensive they must be to maintain, and how reckless it was of Aurane to seize them... until and unless he has a deal with someone to provide him with the ports, protection and gold to support his prize.

Which is to say, he must be seeking to become someone's sworn sail or even bucanneer. Some House that has gold or silver, as well as ports or harbors, preferably at the East Coast of Westeros (closer to King's Landing). I don't think it is Stannis, sounds a bit too convoluted with his attentions directed towards the North. It could be the Tyrells, or even the Redwynes (who probably are in dire want of ships to fight the Ironborn in the Shield Islands), or maybe even the Manderlys.

[Monk Meth-]

maybe he jsut fled with the fleet because he knew the onyl reason he was anywhere near the small council was because cersei is a nitwit and when someone else takes her place he will be gone and possibly lose his head.

[StannisandDaeny]

I was under the same impression, Monk Meth, I think he just fled 'cos he realized he was going to be replaced with Cersei no longer in charge. It was Cersei who insisted on putting him there against better advice, so I don't think it's a ploy of the Tyrells, and betrayal by bastards is a common theme in the series. He was a bit of a scallywag already when he was fighting for Stannis so he's likely just spotted opportunity in the current war at sea to become a pirate and reap some valuable profits. What I do find surprising is that the entire navy would simply desert and follow him like that.

[Pearlthegirl]

Given some interpretations of the "mummers dragon" being a fake Targ and not necessarily Varys' Targ and add in the Aegon just went home to Westeros...could Aurane pass for a fake Targ with Dany?

Throwing it out there. Tyrion could blow his cover wide open in Mereen.

[rmholt]

Waters was captured at Blackwater and chose to surrender. Cersei put him on the small council - what a peach to land in his lap. He was in a position to get the H out of there with ships and a KG who was Tyrell - an uncertain Lannister ally. Dragonstone, if not taken, and if the fleet was not for Lannisters, would not send ravens. Jaime has been suckered via Cersei. Waters is a Velaryon if anything, certainly not a Tyrell. Note Driftmark is a hop from Dragonstone.

[StannisandDaeny]

What I find strange is that all of his men would follow him in his 'betrayal'. With that in mind, the 'he's working for the Tyrells theory' makes most sense to me. I don't put it past Aurane to desert, but I don't think he commands the respect or has the authority to have such a large and important part of the Royal navy suddenly join Stannis or Daeny.

[Toccs]

What I find strange is that all of his men would follow him in his 'betrayal'.

The crews of his fleet are all made up of criminals. There was the scene in the small council where Cersei cut off the Nightswatch and Aurane had all of the criminals who would have been sent to the watch sent to him instead to crew the ships.

[Ser Tom Tarly]

Maybe hes lying low in White harbour and it was the royal fleet Davos saw there.

[The Drunkard]

Maybe hes lying low in White harbour and it was the royal fleet Davos saw there.

That would probably be pretty noticable.

[Ser Tom Tarly]

That would probably be pretty noticable.

It would be, its awhile since I read ADwD but I can remember Davos mentioning the ships there. I know Manderly was assembling his fleet but its just a thought.

[Aelinor Keath]

Every time I think of the Dromonds, I think of how expensive they must be to maintain, and how reckless it was of Aurane to seize them... until and unless he has a deal with someone to provide him with the ports, protection and gold to support his prize.

Which is to say, he must be seeking to become someone's sworn sail or even bucanneer. Some House that has gold or silver, as well as ports or harbors, preferably at the East Coast of Westeros (closer to King's Landing). I don't think it is Stannis, sounds a bit too convoluted with his attentions directed towards the North. It could be the Tyrells, or even the Redwynes (who probably are in dire want of ships to fight the Ironborn in the Shield Islands), or maybe even the Manderlys.

He could take them across the Sea to essos as well.

Also, we have to remember that we have no idea who Aurane's mother is. She could be a kitchen maid, the daughter of a minor house or one of the Blackfyre descendents that roams around Essos.

[thetitansbastard]

I never got the impression that Drogo came with much of a pedigree.

"Son of Bharbo" I think? That may be just TV series. I did assume huge pedigree though based on that.

To Waters, I think he's either headed towards the Mander or Danaerys. Not sure how he could help Stannis. Could he go save the wildings and brothers at Hardhome? That would be sweet but could he know about that?

[Ragnorak]

This is an aspect of the "grand Tyrell conspiracy" idea that I haven't really considered. If something like this is the case, then Aurane Waters has to be quite the opportunist to switch loyalties so quickly. As a bastard of House Velaryon, he fought for Stannis on the Blackwater, but surrendered and swore fealty to Joffrey.

Is there anything in the story that we can interpret as evidence of his Tyrell allegiance before ferrying Loras to Dragonstone? I think it's less likely that he had a standing association with the Tyrells than that he may have made a pact with Loras on the voyage to Dragonstone. Coming from a house sworn to Dragonstone, it's possible he would have knowledge of some of the fortress's secrets. Perhaps he offered that knowledge in trade for protection when it came time to make his move later on?

It's unclear what he has to gain by allying himself with the Tyrells, unless it was something he wouldn't normally have access to as a bastard.

Long reply but lots of quotes from the book.

The evidence that he's allied with the Tyrells is that he was drinking wine with Elinor and that he was awake and alert when Margaery brought news of the Iron Islands attack.

Margaery was dancing with her cousin Alla, Megga with Ser Tallad the Tall. The other cousin, Elinor, was sharing a cup of wine with the handsome young Bastard of Driftmark, Aurane Waters.

She had only to glance at her councillors to know that; only Lord Qyburn and Aurane Waters seemed awake. The others had been roused from bed by Margaery’s messengers pounding on their doors, and stood there rumpled and confused.

Though he does object to lifting the seige. One could argue he is just playing the role but he does object for what it is worth.

Aurane Waters bristled at Ser Loras’s suggestion. “If Lord Redwyne sails his ships away, how are we to supply our men on Dragonstone? Without the Arbor’s galleys, how will we maintain the siege of Storm’s End?”

“The siege can be resumed later, after—”

Here is the follow up quote when he agrees to go to Dragonstone. He does throw in some rather obvious Cersei flattery.

She was pleased to see that Margaery had gone pale. “Your courage takes my breath away, Ser Loras,” Cersei said. “Lord Waters, are any of the new dromonds fit to put to sea?”

“Sweet Cersei is, Your Grace. A swift ship, and as strong as the queen she’s named for.”

“Splendid. Let Sweet Cersei carry our Knight of Flowers to Dragonstone at once. Ser Loras, the command is yours. Swear to me that you shall not return until Dragonstone is Tommen’s.”

“I shall, Your Grace.” He rose.

Aurane Waters does seem to be intelligent. Here he seems amazed at how ignorant the small council is of their enemy.

“Stannis will need another Hand,” observed Aurane Waters with a chuckle. “The turnip knight, perhaps?”

“A turnip knight?” said Ser Harys Swyft, confused. “Who is this man? I have not heard of him.”

Waters did not reply, except to roll his eyes.

He also seems to use the docks for intel and is arguably more informed than Qyburn. This also could be him as a Stannis loyalist measuring the enemy.

“Whilst we await Lord Walder’s death, there is another matter,” said Aurane Waters. “The Golden Company has broken its contract with Myr. Around the docks I’ve heard men say that Lord Stannis has hired them and is bringing them across the sea.”

He can think on the fly. Everyone else is pondering how to deal with Jon Snow as LC and Waters uses it to get himself more resources.

Grand Maester Pycelle nodded ponderously. “I propose that we inform Castle Black that no more men will be sent to them until such time as Snow is gone.”

“Our new dromonds will need oarsmen,” said Aurane Waters. “Let us instruct the lords to send their poachers and thieves to me henceforth, instead of to the Wall.”

This also ties in with his choice of captains. He has arranged for both the crews and captains to be men of no loyalty to anyone but himself.

The Grand Maester had been especially querulous in council of late. At the last session he had complained bitterly about the men that Aurane Waters had chosen to captain her new dromonds. Waters meant to give the ships to younger men, whilst Pycelle argued for experience, insisting that the commands should go to those captains who had survived the fires of the Blackwater. “Seasoned men of proven loyalty,” he called them.

He has a similar tactic and focus getting his ships to begin with.

“Might we discuss the fleet?” asked Aurane Waters. “Fewer than a dozen of our ships survived the inferno on the Blackwater. We must needs restore our strength at sea.”

The other councilors muse about a Greyjoy alliance to mitigate the need to build ships. They are as ignorant of the Greyjoys as they were of Davos. Waters is undistracted and says:

“I propose we build new dromonds,” said Aurane Waters. “Ten, to start with.”

He seems to be manipulating Cersei with the first ship name choice and proves that he isn't clueless with the second.

Aurane had asked her leave to name her Lord Tywin, which Cersei had been pleased to grant

He had actually chosen Moon Boy for one. Only when Lord Aurane suggested that men might not want to serve on a ship named for a fool had the boy reluctantly agreed to honor his sister instead.

He doesn't seem to be gay. Aside from drinking with Elinor, Cersei has this observation. He could be gay and just playing her but I can't find a hint of evidence for it. This seem like more Cersei manipulation.

Aurane Waters seemed as bored as Cersei by all this prattle about septons. Seen up close, his hair was more silvery than gold, and his eyes were grey-green where Prince Rhaegar’s had been purple. Even so, the resemblance... She wondered if Waters would shave his beard for her. Though he was ten years her junior, he wanted her; Cersei could see it in the way he looked at her. Men had been looking at her that way since her breasts began to bud.

Another thing that stood out is a bit about the Red Wedding. I read this as calling the Red wedding a "crime" is so understated that people aren't sure what Qyburn is even talking about. Talk of the Red Wedding in the winesinks and potshops must be the same on the docks, but Waters doesn't mention it. Instead he segways into the GC dock rumors. I really doubt he has any Stark loyalty but it seems to play into an anti-Lannister theme. I suspect this is just a clue the RW hurt all parties involved far more than they know. But Waters spoke first and then changed the topic so I threw it in.

“My lords may not know,” said Qyburn, “but in the winesinks and pot shops of this city, there are those who suggest that the crown might have been somehow complicit in Lord Walder’s crime.”

The other councillors stared at him uncertainly. “Do you refer to the Red Wedding?” asked Aurane Waters. “Crime?” said Ser Harys. Pycelle cleared his throat noisily. Lord Gyles coughed.

“These sparrows are especially outspoken,” warned Qyburn. “The Red Wedding was an affront to all the laws of gods and men, they say, and those who had a hand in it are damned.”

“Whilst we await Lord Walder’s death, there is another matter,” said Aurane Waters. “The Golden Company has broken its contract with Myr. Around the docks I’ve heard men say that Lord Stannis has hired them and is bringing them across the sea.”

Here is where Aurane breaks the news to Cersei. I don't really know what to make this. Stannis did send out all his ravens with the incest messages but there was plenty of time for him to resupply the ravens and the fleet and the seige must have brought some to send messages too. So no raven is very suspicious. Did they kill the thousand men loyal to the Lannisters? Did they just break the seige and sail away and those Lannister men just followed orders. The knights and young lords really jumps out. Hostages anyone? But still, Loras has to be in on it. Waters taking upon himself to negotiate a Tyrell/Stannis alliance is a huge reach. The Kings Men are the ones left at Dragonstone so maybe that's a possible option. Margaery and Edric Storm as the heirs for Stannis in exchange for a Lannister betrayal? A Tyrell plot and all those Lannister bannermen hostages seems the theory requiring the smallest stretch, but Aurane personally as a Stannis loyalist makes most sense to me.

As the grey sky began to fade to black, they told her that the Sweet Cersei had come in on the evening tide, and that Aurane Waters was without, begging audience.

The queen sent for him at once. As soon as he strode into her solar, she knew his tidings were good. “Your Grace,” he said with a broad smile, “Dragonstone is yours.”

“Lord Paxter was taking on provisions for the voyage home when Sweet Cersei raised sail,” Lord Waters reported. “I would imagine that by now his main fleet has put to sea.”

“Let us hope they enjoy a swift voyage, and better weather than today.” The queen drew Waters down into the window seat beside her. “Do we have Ser Loras to thank for this triumph?”

His smile vanished. “Some will say so, Your Grace.”

“Some?” She gave him a quizzical look. “Not you?”

“I never saw a braver knight,” Waters said, “but he turned what could have been a bloodless victory into a slaughter. A thousand men are dead, or near enough to make no matter. Most of them our own. And not just common men, Your Grace, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest.”

“And Ser Loras himself?”

“He will make a thousand and one. They carried him inside the castle after the battle, but his wounds are grievous. He has lost so much blood that the maesters will not even leech him.”

“Tell me,” Cersei commanded. “I want to know all of it, from the beginning to the end.”

The room had grown dark by the time that he was done. The queen lit some candles and sent Dorcas to the kitchens to bring them up some bread and cheese and a bit of boiled beef with horseradish. As they supped, she bid Aurane to tell the tale again, so she would remember all the details correctly. “I do not want our precious Margaery to hear these tidings from a stranger, after all,” she said. “I will tell her myself.”

“Your Grace is kind,” said Waters with a smile. A wicked smile, the queen thought.

[OldManDennis]

Cersei's reaction to the fall of the Shield Islands was to just shrug it off as completely insignificant, in spite of being told of their strategical importance. This is (I think) the same scene where Loras volunteers for the Dragonstone expedition to free the Redwyne fleet to fight the Ironborn.

I didn't think she shrugged the shield islands off as insignificant. They are not a threat to KL, they are a threat to the Tyrell's, who she has decided are her enemies.