[TWoW SPOILERS] Sellswords (from Theon I)

[Ice Turtle]

Arya may come back with Massey, or be sent back to Westeros, but under the orders of the FM. My bet is she gets sent to kill Cersei. I believe she is the valonqar from Cersei's prophesy.

Pure conjecture, but perhaps she is also sent to kill Littlefinger, and is able to rescue her sister in the process.

I would kind of love to see glamored Arya pretend to be Sansa. It would be absolute test of her patience not to kill LF (edited:) too soon.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Me thinks her first words to massey are "why are you here with jeyne poole"

[David C. Hunter]

Dany and her forces are almost certainly to win. Even Tyrion recognizes that the battle is already lost for the wise masters because of disease and a poorly trained army. In addition to Barristan and her other men, she is likely to have a Khalasar and Victarian at her back. Why would the sell swords turn to Stannis when they have a true scion of house Targaryen with a superior claim and superior forces? I actually foresee all of the companies raised by the wise masters to serve Dany. Not only does she have all of the wealth in Meereen, but she will likely get plenty more by ransoming what is left of the wise masters.

I expect Massey to find just this situation at Slavers Bay and come to terms with Dany. It would not really be treason as Massey would be serving the true heir to the iron throne and he is likely to do right by Shireen. Dany will have much more to offer than Stannis. To top it off, this could be done without borrowing from the iron bank.

Those are extremely subjective statements about Dany.

That is true. Aurane Waters with the War Drommonds may also be in the Stepstones. There are bands of Pirates in the Stepstones. These may make good mercenaries IF their established is some exiled, disaffected Westerosi Lord of honour (Who may be looking for more than money).

And you're right the Summer Islanders are reknowned archers and bowmakers. One cannot help but wonder if Sarella Sand or the Exiled Summer Isle King Jhalabar Xho would feature. (Also Margaery Tyrell has been learning the Summer Isles language - why?).

Not many men would wish to marry Shireen for non-political reasons. But Edric Storm grew genuinely fond of her and is proud of his Baratheon heritage. So if given financial means he may well run to Shireen's aid if Stannis is thought dead. We don't know what he has been doing since his departure. It may surprise us. Andrew Estermont who went with him to Lys was one of Stannis' right-hand men. I think Edric may eventually wed Shireen and inherit Storm's End.

I think this is an intriguing possibility. Justin Massey has (arguably) shown a certain decency/kindness beyond what was needed for his ambitions. He may see and appreciate the plight of the Wildlings ...as well as the opportunity therein. The Wildlings are a tough, warlike people. If they are to live South of the Wall then they must find a place in that new world which is not as free as the lands beyond the Wall. I can see them forming a battle company paid by Iron Bank gold. Those that went to Hardhome clearly didn't trust the Night's Watch but they may take work for pay on their own terms. Justin is bound to go via Hardhome because his charge, Tycho Nestoris, must travel North to retrieve his stranded ships which Cotter Pyke took to Hardhome.

Its gonna take him a while to get to the wall. If Jon is already risen and taken control of the wildlings along with Tormund they can head to Winterfell as well. I would love that.

With two books left, I think it time to not start them. That chapter where we found out Stannis is doing this won't be published for five years, and I hope that part of it is gone when it is. It seems like a logistically imossible task to succeed, and I don't find it believable that Stannis would be given unlimited backing by the Iron Bank over a million dollar debt owed by the Crown to start with.

Why not? No one else is going to pay the Iron Bank and they dont have an army to force someone to pay them. Why not let someone run up the debt? If you control the money you control the country.Thats exactly how America has spread it's influence.This is a good thing for Braavos and they got probably the most honorable man to sign in blood. Stannis will actually 'try' to pay them back.

That is a very interesting theory, and one that I will need to give some thought to.

We also have to remember that the FM have Arya in Bravvos and many of us, myself included, feel there is some kind of partnership between the FM and the Iron Bank. If the Iron Bank supports Stannis, I would think they would have the FM try to use Arya with Massey in some way and reintroduce Arya to Westeros in the process.

The Iron Bank also seems to be anti Dany as her Dragons are disrupting every thing, especially their markets. So I am not sure they would continue to fund Massey if he turns from Stannis to Dany.

The Iron Bank is anti-dragon for they are the descendants of escaped slaves from Valyria. The Faceless men are probably gun-ho about declaring for Stannis. I mean...thats all they have at this point.

Me thinks her first words to massey are "why are you here with jeyne poole"

Yup, I was thinking that too. And if Jeyne responds by saying 'Im not Jeyne, Im Arya Stark' I feel like the real Arya will add her to her little prayer

[jarl the climber]

I think speculating about Jeyne at this point is just to speculative. If Jon sees her, the game is up. I don't see why he would participate in this deception. I don't think we can assume that Massey will definitely be the only one who goes, Stannis thinks Davos was executed and it might be that the Glover in White Harbor goes as well, he knows Arya as weasel, Roose Boltons cupbearer. Team Stoneheart might send someone to Braavos to look for Arya if they find out she is alive and boarded the braavosi trading ship, which is possible. Its not impossible that the Martells might not show up in there to see which way the wind is blowing. I hope cwe get a lot more in Braavos than Massey and Jeyne Poole.

[Drunkenspeton]

So Massey and Tycho have to get back to Eastwatch, then over to Braavos.

Then he has to raise 20000 men.

I'm going to take the companies we know about out of the equation that being the Golden company and the ones in Slavers bay for now. Thoughdepending on whathappens to Stannis and the timescaleinvolved theycould come intoplay I guess.

I wonder if the help of the Iron bank will put Braavos ships at Stannis disposal. Or just hire ships so transportation should not be an issue.

I'm sure not every sellsword in the free cities is in Slavers bay or part of the gc. There must be smaller contingents acting as guards for merchant caravans etc the same way Westeros has sellswords like Bronn and hedgeknights like the Mad Mouse.

Bronn was able to raise 1000? sellswords in kingslanding. Braavos is huge and has those Braavos swaggering about. So surely from Braavos and its environs just a thousand men hungry for gold could be recruited.

With enough gold I'm sure he could find 20000 men but who knows of what quality and it might be a pretty diverse force and what time scale.

Lets presume he can raise 20000 men who may well be of varying quality and of differing tongues and nationalities he's then supposed to get them to eastwatch then what?

I really don't understand Stannis thinking here. 20000 foreigners in the snow?

Of course he might change up his plans. Whiteharbour is bigger than Eastwatch and closer to the south.

If Stannis dies I guess that changes alot. Massey made a pledge in that case to put Shireen on the throne or die in the attempt. Masseys been loyal but that sounds utter madness.

One thing I have considered but think is unlikely is what if Young Griff /Aegon dies. Soon. Then you have a ten thousand man mercenary army already in westeros and no king to fight for.

Massey should send a facelessman after Aegon. Then hire the Golden company. I don't think this will happen tho at all. Stannis would not approve of asassins I imagine even tho he basically asassinated his own brother and that castellan.

[Michael Jon Snow]

While I still believe that Massey's biggest contribution will be providing Arya with a reason to return to Westeros, some of the posts in this thread have made me think of another key roll he might play. If many of the sellsword companies are in Merreen, might Massey be the one to bring word of the Others to Dany et al. Would the timing work for Massey to arrive in slavers bay just as that whole situation is wrapping up. Dany resolves whatever is going to be resolved with whoever shows up and just when it seems like happily ever after, oh BTW, humanity in Westeros is threatened. Better come quick. Maybe?

[Tyler Snow]

I think Massey, if he succeeds at all, will find his help in Braavos. I'm not too particular on how the Braavosi are in land warfare but having another fleet in the mix can only help Stannis. It seems as if the Tattered Prince would be Massey's best bet after that but, again, at the cost of Pentos I'm not sure that the Prince would trust Stannis

It would be interesting/awesome, depending on the outcome of the conflict at Mereen, if Massey was able to "hire" Victarion to fight for Stannis and against hist brother Euron. I doubt that would happen but it would be a pretty excellent twist.

[Drunkenspeton]

Just been doing a little research on sellsword companies mentioned in the series including known numbers.

The Golden Company (currently serving Aegon invading westeros) 10 000 men.

The Windblown (currently in the pay of Yunkai possibly soon to switch to Meereen) 2000

The Second Sons (as above) 500

The company of the Cat (in Yunkais pay) 3000

The Long Lances (in Yunkais pay) 800

The Stormcrows (Dany/Meereen) 500

ALL the sellsword companies in Slavers bay field 6,800 men combined. Then add the golden company. Thats 16,800 men. That seems rather modest to account for all the sellsword companies in the free cities/eastern lands.

Others.

Brave companions - basically ceased to exist.

Gallant men- mentioned as a company that Osmund Kettleblack served in. So known to exist in the recent past.

Ironshields

Maidens men - Companies the Tattered Prince fought in before forming the Windblown. Whether they still exist is unknown.

Bright Banners - Fought the Dothraki at Qohor. Again present existence unknown.

Ragged Standard - existed during the time of the Blackfyre rebellion. Again present circumstances unknown.

So thats another 5 companies mentioned 1 known to exist recently (Gallant men), 2 in the not to distant past that Tatters served in (Ironshields, Maidens men) and 2 further in the past Ragged Standard, Bright Banners.

So thats 5 companies unaccounted for if they still exist.

[kephv]

And there's probably a lot more we haven't heard of yet. If he needs more he could always invent them.

[Brucolac]

You don't add outliers when you are estimating numbers. The golden company is atypical because they have had a goal for conquest since their conception and consists of exiled lords that have left westeros with armies and their descendents, hence the much higher number of 10,000 men. The average mercanary company in his world is 1000 men, so he has to contract nearly a hundred companies to be on equal footing with Stannis' enemies.

Yeah, he can always invent them, but I find changes and additions of convenience late in a series annoying. Even if he does come up with more companies, the logisics behind the task to begin with(and I think the financial backing as well) are unbelievable. Even if the mercenary companies are out there to make it possible, there are countless things that make this a stretch in reality: travel time just to reach that many companies, transportation of them, where to send them when he contracts them but has no contact with Stannis and his location, them finding one knight as a creditable employer, willingness to travel to westoros in winter and fight...

Maybe it will just be him running into someone else and being a means to bring back one of his POVs, but I call shenanigans if he shows up with a mercanary army large enough to make Stannis a contender.

[Drunkenspeton]

When has numbers stopped Stannis from advancing his claims before?

Even now the Boltons forces outnumber him, he took his codfish lords to meet Renly outnumbered, the Tyrell/Lannister host outnumbered him and caught him at the Blackwater, the wildlings outnumbered him.

Give him a sizeable host and I don't think he'll give a damn about being otunumbered by the Tyrells etc.

Plus Aegon and Euron are also distracting the Iron throne. Aegon himself only has 10'000 men!

[Lady Octarina]

When has numbers stopped Stannis from advancing his claims before?

Even now the Boltons forces outnumber him, he took his codfish lords to meet Renly outnumbered, the Tyrell/Lannister host outnumbered him and caught him at the Blackwater, the wildlings outnumbered him.

Give him a sizeable host and I don't think he'll give a damn about being otunumbered by the Tyrells etc.

Plus Aegon and Euron are also distracting the Iron throne. Aegon himself only has 10'000 men!

Not to mention that, by the time Stannis gets South again, his enemies will all have killed one another, not to mention famine, dragons, etc killing 50% of the population. So, he won't have to worry that much about being outnumbered...

[7V3N]

The Second Sons. It would be their path to Westeros to claim the cash promised by Tyrion. They could betray Stannis (they love switching sides) and use that as "good favor" for Aegon.

Dunk & Egg:

Maynard Plumm, Bloodraven or no, was (most definitely) a spy.

Ben Plumm leads the second sons. Switching sides just comes naturally, I guess.

[GreenHand]

something worth noting...:

While Oberyn Nymeros-Martell was travelling in Essos (presumably at the same time as his sellsword days) he came to look in on the young Daenerys and Viserys Targeryen in Braavos (the house with the red door). The marriage contract between Arianne Martell and Viserys Targeryen is signed by Oberyn and the then Sealord of Braavos (To whom Syrio Forel was the First Sword?). We know that Oberyn tried unsuccessfully to rouse Dorne against the Iron Throne, so the free company he founded may have tied in to this end. Oberyn has a wild spirit and likely wandered much but perhaps he was based somewhere while in Essos. Perhaps in Braavos where we know he was and which is closest to Dorne.

Given all this I propose that the Oberyn-founded Free Company of Sellswords is, in fact, based in Braavos. Is there anything to point to this. Perhaps they will be hired by Massey/Stannis but serve as setting for a conflict of loyalties when they encounter the Sand Snakes who may leverage the memory of their father (and a long-abandoned anti-Lannister purpose?) to manipulate Oberyn's old company when they reach the Southron Kingdoms.

any thoughts?

(Please forgive me, this is some way more abjectly speculative than my usual posts...)

[Bran Vras]

something worth noting...:

While Oberyn Nymeros-Martell was travelling in Essos (presumably at the same time as his sellsword days) he came to look in on the young Daenerys and Viserys Targeryen in Braavos (the house with the red door). The marriage contract between Arianne Martell and Viserys Targeryen is signed by Oberyn and the then Sealord of Braavos (To whom Syrio Forel was the First Sword?). We know that Oberyn tried unsuccessfully to rouse Dorne against the Iron Throne, so the free company he founded may have tied in to this end. Oberyn has a wild spirit and likely wandered much but perhaps he was based somewhere while in Essos. Perhaps in Braavos where we know he was and which is closest to Dorne.

Given all this I propose that the Oberyn-founded Free Company of Sellswords is, in fact, based in Braavos. Is there anything to point to this. Perhaps they will be hired by Massey/Stannis but serve as setting for a conflict of loyalties when they encounter the Sand Snakes who may leverage the memory of their father (and a long-abandoned anti-Lannister purpose?) to manipulate Oberyn's old company when they reach the Southron Kingdoms.

any thoughts?

(Please forgive me, this is some way more abjectly speculative than my usual posts...)

I have thought a similar thing. But there is no such evidence. Note that one can doubt that the pact signed by the Sealord is authentic (see this).

In fact, when Ben Plumm (Edit: or rather Inkpots) tells Tyrion about famous past members of the Second Sons, he doesn't mention Oberyn Martell. The Second Sons maintain a written record of membership. It must mean that Oberyn was in the Second Sons under a false identity (or that he never joined the company). He might have founded the other company under another name as well.

Finally, Oberyn has been to several places in Essos. He even fathered a daughter with a Volantene.

[Manus_Dei]

The Iron Bank is anti-dragon for they are the descendants of escaped slaves from Valyria. The Faceless men are probably gun-ho about declaring for Stannis. I mean...thats all they have at this point.

Why do the Faceless men have to declare for anyone? They haven't seemed the type to care about politics. Unless a more direct and influential connection with the Iron Bank is established, i see them as nothing more than uninterested observers of politics in general.

[History of Westeros]

With two books left, I think it time to not start them. That chapter where we found out Stannis is doing this won't be published for five years, and I hope that part of it is gone when it is. It seems like a logistically imossible task to succeed, and I don't find it believable that Stannis would be given unlimited backing by the Iron Bank over a million dollar debt owed by the Crown to start with.

The debt is quite a bit larger than that, and your attempt at making it seem smaller by calling it "dollars" is silly. A figure of a million dragons is a reasonable estimate.. *at the start of the first book*. 2-3 years have passed since then and at the point where we learn of the debt, *there has been no war*. So where things stand now the debt is likely quite massive. Easily 5x higher, and 10x higher would be believable. Obviously there is no table for exchange rates, but given the price of food and swords and armor that we've seen, a million dragons >>> a million dollars in today's money.

[7V3N]

:agree: And they know Stannis keeps his word. They know that if he sits on the Iron Throne, he intends to repay the debt. Cersei basically gave them the finger, so why would they want her to continue ruling?

[Brucolac]

By the time of 'Game of Thrones' has started the Iron Bank has already stopped giving loans, which we see from Little Fingers comment and at most they are owed two million possibly three if all the faith debt is post war, but it probably much closer to one million since Littlefinger mentions the Tyrels and a couple traders as also significant holders of the crowns debt. If they were already balking about giving further loans when the country was at peace with a clear leader, they aren't going to be extending ten times that amount when they have no idea who is going to prevail and who to give loans to. Saying that the crown has been funding their war with the coffers of the Iron Bank to the extent of 10 million dragons is unfounded speculation when every indication is that this was not the case.

I meant dragons of course, and we don't know what it buys exactly. We do know the archer that won 10,000 dragons was able to go through it in less than a year as well as the Hound who won 40,000 dragons, though some of this might have been with him still when he was taken by lord Beric.

"We owe Lord Tywin some three million dragons at present, what matter another hundred thousand?”

Ned was stunned. “Are you claiming that the Crown is three million gold pieces in debt?”

“The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I’ve had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger.”

It seems to me we owe the Faith some nine hundred thousand dragons.”

“Nine hundred thousand six hundred and seventy-four dragons. Gold that could feed the hungry and rebuild a thousand septs.”

It just doesn't seem like a realistic plan to me and the motivations behind it seem just as far off. It won't be the first time in the series westeros reality has been stretched though if it does happen.

[Bastard Walder]

Ok so what if Massey brings Jeyne Poole to Braavos after Jon realizes she's not Arya? Jeyne could possibly recognize Arya if she wasn't disguised, and convince her to come back to Westeros. A bit of a stretch.