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Was Ned really that stupid?


areacode201

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I was just thinking today.... Ned told Cersei because he wanted to give her and her kids a chance to escape Robert's wrath. Did Ned really think Robert was going to allow them to survive even if they did get away? He would have called all his banners and leveled Casterly Rock. Am I missing something or was Ned really that naive?

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His mistake was to think that everyone thinks like he does and values the same thing, and most importantly that everyone will fall to their feet in adoration for the great Lord Stark. I simply think that he thought things would still work in the South like they worked in the North and that's why he failed and died.

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Ned told her to flee to Essos. Besides if Robert called his banner who would have followed?

Dorne, I really doubt it they hate Lannisters, but children are children and they hate Robert almost the same.

The North, no way, that means no Riverlans as well.

Lysa wouldn't go openly against Lannisters, no more than Littlefinger.

Balon making alliance with Robert, hardly.

Though, Tyrells may had as well as Stannis. To see Baratheon brothers cooperate, what a mad world that would be... And it actually may have been Renly's plan all along.

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His mistake was that he took Cersei for someone who has at least a tenous connection with reality. Come on, who takes ten chances in a row where a single failure would doom her and her kids? That would be a 1:1,000 chance of working in Cerseis favor, with each chance being a 50:50. And Viserys/Dany were quite safe in Essos, Cersei and kids would be too.

Well, Cersei hat plot armor and Ned died for it.

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I believe Ned acknowledges that Robert will go after Cersei and the kids even if they run, so in that sense he was not naive. He was stupid enough to believe Cersei would take his advice and go, though.

It would have been interesting though, if Robert had lived and Cersei had run with the children. I feel like Ned and Robert would have had a friendship ending fight over the issue of hunting down and killing the kids.

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I was just thinking today.... Ned told Cersei because he wanted to give her and her kids a chance to escape Robert's wrath. Did Ned really think Robert was going to allow them to survive even if they did get away? He would have called all his banners and leveled Casterly Rock. Am I missing something or was Ned really that naive?

1. I believe Ned had in mind Cersei and Jaime going into exile in the Free Cities, outside of Robert's reach, and not returning to Casterly Rock.

2. Would the banners have even responded a call to arms by Robert? As I saw it, the great houses accepted Robert mostly as a figurehead who kept the King's peace, but otherwise left them alone to do their own thing. Raising the banners to fight the Greyjoy rebellion is one thing; raising the banners to attack another Great House over a personal vendetta is entirely another. If every house with an adulterous member got smashed, there wouldn't be any houses left. Robert might try, but at most he'd get the Stormlands and Dorne to declare for him. That's enough to bloody the Lannisters, but not wipe them out as he'd planned.

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His mistake was that he took Cersei for someone who has at least a tenous connection with reality. Come on, who takes ten chances in a row where a single failure would doom her and her kids? That would be a 1:1,000 chance of working in Cerseis favor, with each chance being a 50:50. And Viserys/Dany were quite safe in Essos, Cersei and kids would be too.

Well, Cersei hat plot armor and Ned died for it.

Um, what are you talking about "who takes ten chances in a row", "1:1000 chance of working in her favor"

Telling Cersei was idiotic, and Ned paid the price. Sorry.

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Wasn't Robert still hale at this time? IIRC, he simply meant to tell him the truth and let Robert deal with it. He knew how Robert was like to react, so he gave her some advice. The problem is that he sympathizes with her. He knows Robert had been a poor husband to her, and he doesn't expect women to behave like knights and honorable men. He probably also can't imagine how she could have time to do Robert in before he returned, as KG are with him, and obvious treason would get her killed just as dead as Robert's knowledge of her duplicity. He doesn't expect that Cersei has already made her move. We can talk about Ned's being stupid, but that's not so much the case as Cersei being a step ahead of him the entire freaking time. She's had the benefit of a trial run with Aryn, so let's not think too badly of Ned, eh?

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I have an issue with Ned thinking Cersei would behave the way he would. Ned definately has a low opinion of the Lannisters, he once or twice refers to Cersei as "that Lannister woman" and is clearly one of the people who think Jaime has shit for honor, so WHY would he think she would listen to him?

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You would be surprised how willing subjects are to follow their masters commands even though they hate him and dont believe in the orders, you see it in the work place all the time. Ned was only giving Cersei a head start, his mistake was trusting Robert, he was smart enough to seek the gold cloaks help but stupid enough to shun Renly.

Neds problem was he thought he and Robert had the power as should have been the case, Cersei simply outmanoeuvred him

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You would be surprised how willing subjects are to follow their masters commands even though they hate him and dont believe in the orders, you see it in the work place all the time. Ned was only giving Cersei a head start, his mistake was trusting Robert, he was smart enough to seek the gold cloaks help but stupid enough to shun Renly.

Neds problem was he thought he and Robert had the power as should have been the case, Cersei simply outmanoeuvred him

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The only dumb thing that Ned had was thinking that the Lannisters and any sort of honor and would go back to the Rock where they belonged. Ned was sure that even if they ran, Robert would want them dead but he also knew that Robert likely wouldn't attack the Rock directly, without Ned's help Robert wouldn't likely go to open war against the Lannisters. Ned should have looked at things the way they were and not just assumed that everyone had honor lke he did.

IMO Ned was by no means dumb though. Ned from the start saw how much damage had been done to the capital and made honorable decisions. Making tough and honorable decisions doesn't make you dumb.

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I think the point was that Ned was too honorable for the game of thrones, and that silly move sealed his fate. Ned is not dumb though. He was trying to be noble, and was probably aware that it may cost him his life.

However, it made me so sad that he didn't go straight to Robert. Especially after reading all of the books and knowing how much Lannister hate even Robert had, I think Robert would have 100% believed him. I think the only person in the world that Robert truly trusted and felt close to was Ned. He was really his brother. I don't remember him trusting anyone else at all, not even his own blood brothers. He would continuously talk crap about everyone around him, especially his counsel and the Lannisters. They were two peas in a pod, and both dead. Shame. I know Ned was kind and trying to save Cersei, but he was also scared that Robert wouldn't believe him, if I recall correctly. With the combination of those two feelings, I guess he thought talking to Cersei was his best option. /sigh

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I think Ned believed that Cersei's love for and fear for her children's lives, not to mention her own, would motivate her to take the offer of escape that he gave her. But Cersei is and was a lioness; and would lash out and kill her lord and king rather than lose the future power of her son's kingship.

Ned trusted too much in human goodness. Perhaps he felt a little sorry for Cersei, having seen how Robert abused her. I also think the notion of his own actions, however just, causing the murder of children, was something he could not endure. Ned made the wrong choice in trusting Cersei to take the prudent course of escape; but I will always love him for trying to avoid causing the death of children. Sadly, his compassion doomed him and his own children; and he must have died in great sorrow for the family his honor had jeopardized - Arya apparently off on her own, Sansa the Lannisters' captive, little Rickon and crippled Bran now fatherless in Winterfell, Robb coming into the Stark lordship too young, and Catelyn to be left a grieving widow. :crying:

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Honorable people have a hard time understanding how dishonorable people think and act. Ned assumed because Cersei (and the Lannisters) were dishonorable they were ALSO cowards at heart, and when he exposed their dirty secret, Cersei would go "Oh shit!" and scurry away. And in Ned's defense, if Robert wasn't off getting rip-roaring drunk and mortally wounded, he might have been in the clear. But Lancel was saying "Chug! Chug! Chug! Chug!" to the king at that very moment, and Rob and Ned were doomed.

This also, however, works in reverse. Dishonorable people can't really understand how honorable people think and act, automatically assuming that it's all a show and deep down they're really as corrupt and malleable as everyone else, it's simply a matter of meeting their price. When Cersei fires Barristan The Bold and gives him a castle to retire to, she honestly expects him to accept it. Or at least go away and die in obscurity. She can't wrap her head around the idea that he respects the institution of the Kingsguard and takes it seriously -- because she doesn't; to her its just another polticial office to fill with loyal toadies -- so when Tyrion points out to her that he's NOT going to just go away, going to go find another King to guard, and it's a PR coup for whichever king that is, her mind is blown.

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If he was stupid about anything, I think it was in thinking that Cersei didn't know what he found out half a second after he discovered the truth.

She just got the jump on Ned. There's condemnation all sorts about how Ned or Sansa revealed their hands too soon, but in almost all cases I can think of, Cersei was already acting behind the scenes well before they said anything to her. She's just so ahead of them (until her POVs, anyway, which totally undo her smarts). As I said above, I think it's because she'd already been on her guard against Jon Aryn's snooping around.

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