Was Ned really that stupid?

[Horza]

Well, Cersei was taking the long shot:

1. If Ned had changed his mind when she didn't run

2. If Bob hadn't gotten himself drunk

stop. right. there.

[Winter's Knight]

WAIT!! STOP EVERYTHING!!!!

When did she make this offer? :uhoh:

From GoT:

"Must?" She put her hand on his good leg, just above the knee. "A true man does what he will, not what

he must." Her fingers brushed lightly against his thigh, the gentlest of promises. "The realm needs a strong

Hand. Joff will not come of age for years. No one wants war again, least of all me." Her hand touched his

face, his hair. "If friends can turn to enemies, enemies can become friends. Your wife is a thousand

leagues away, and my brother has fled. Be kind to me, Ned. I swear to you, you shall never regret it."

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Well, Cersei was taking the long shot:

1. If Ned had changed his mind when she didn't run

2. If Bob hadn't gotten himself drunk

stop. right. there.

Correction: If Bob hadn't gotten himself so drunk he didn't function anymore while on a hunt. The guy had enough training to function where most guys would be in hospital.

[SeanF]

I have no idea how he ever thought his plan could go right. There were so many factors that went against him.

Even if he thought he took the best decision considering what he knew it was still a grossly misguided plan.

He could've taken a few days to think it through, waited for his daughters to be safely back on their way to Winterfell, and waited for Robert to be back from the hunt before telling Cersei.

If he had waited for Robert to come back, he would never have told her because she knew he would not tell Robert, considering the state he was in.

Also, not asking more people to witness Robert's will was an idiotic move.

Not accepting Renly's offer was also very stupid.

I liked Ned up until that point, but valuing his "honor" over his own daughters' safety made me dislike him instantly.

It was stupid indeed. Tywin, Jaime, and Cersei fleeing into exile was never a realistic option. Tywin would have been sure to go to war had either of his children been arrested by Robert or Ned.

It would have been much more sensible "never to remark upon a likeness."

[Horza]

Correction: If Bob hadn't gotten himself so drunk he didn't function anymore while on a hunt. The guy had enough training to function where most guys would be in hospital.

But he was a massive, slavering tosspot of a boozehound being plied with some very fine port, I don't see what's a long shot about him partaking of a little too much.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But he was a massive, slavering tosspot of a boozehound being plied with some very fine port, I don't see what's a long shot about him partaking of a little too much.

Nothing. The long shot consists of ten chances in a row.

[Elaena Targaryen]

I'm sorry but Cersei was very stupid here, not Ned. She had been trying to kill Robert anyway, like manipulating him to enter the melee. But to risk the lives of her children on a boar? Please it only happened to serve the plot. Robert drank all the time and he went hunting all the time, so what was different? Cersei got really really really lucky with this one, who plans on their husband will be killed by a wild boar? She might of had a back up plan but we don't know what it was. It was a huge risk that she took and it happened to work so I don't see how that qualifies her as some genius here. What would have happened if Robert made it back from his hunting trip? Cersei would have been toast.

[Horza]

Nothing. The long shot consists of ten chances in a row.

None of them are asking a great deal of the gods. Bob likes hunting, likes proving his physical valor, Barristan knows that, boars are serious business.

Then, Ned can think what he likes, it's deniable, as are Robert's deathbed words and the Renly plan, with Littlefinger's coda is pretty much inimical to every fibre of Ned's being. And it's not like Cersei doesn't know Ned's a stupidly decent man, he's already proven that.

It is a risky business killing a king, but even if we assume there weren't backups like a good old fashioned stray arrow, it's take them or face the total eclipse of House Lannister.

[Winter's Knight]

I'm sorry but Cersei was very stupid here, not Ned. She had been trying to kill Robert anyway, like manipulating him to enter the melee. But to risk the lives of her children on a boar? Please it only happened to serve the plot. Robert drank all the time and he went hunting all the time, so what was different? Cersei got really really really lucky with this one, who plans on their husband will be killed by a wild boar? She might of had a back up plan but we don't know what it was. It was a huge risk that she took and it happened to work so I don't see how that qualifies her as some genius here. What would have happened if Robert made it back from his hunting trip? Cersei would have been toast.

Wasn't this wine particularly potent? Or am I just misremembering?

[Horza]

Wasn't this wine particularly potent? Or am I just misremembering?

It was fortified, yes.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

None of them are asking a great deal of the gods. Bob likes hunting, likes proving his physical valor, Barristan knows that, boars are serious business.

No, on itself no chance was unrealistic. Which chances do you attribute to each? 50/50? Then it all working out in Cerseis favor would be 1/1024. 75/25? It would be still 1/20. It was a ridiculous bet.

Then, Ned can think what he likes, it's deniable, as are Robert's deathbed words and the Renly plan, with Littlefinger's coda is pretty much inimical to every fibre of Ned's being. And it's not like Cersei doesn't know Ned's a stupidly decent man, he's already proven that.

It's harder to deny them when it's an official announcement and Bob's still alive and orders the KG and GC to arrest Cersei and her children.

It is a risky business killing a king, but even if we assume there weren't backups like a good old fashioned stray arrow, it's take them or face the total eclipse of House Lannister.

But we know that she had no contingency plans. It was all or nothing. It was an idiotic risk.

[SeanF]

I'm sorry but Cersei was very stupid here, not Ned. She had been trying to kill Robert anyway, like manipulating him to enter the melee. But to risk the lives of her children on a boar? Please it only happened to serve the plot. Robert drank all the time and he went hunting all the time, so what was different? Cersei got really really really lucky with this one, who plans on their husband will be killed by a wild boar? She might of had a back up plan but we don't know what it was. It was a huge risk that she took and it happened to work so I don't see how that qualifies her as some genius here. What would have happened if Robert made it back from his hunting trip? Cersei would have been toast.

I can't quite remember the quote, but I think there is a reference to a stray arrow striking down Robert if the boar hadn't done the job. Lancel would have found some means of killing him. Even had he returned, I'm sure that Cersei would have brazened out the allegations against her - and the Red Keep was mostly garrisoned by Lannister guards at that stage.

[Elaena Targaryen]

Yes but my point is that she already had this plan in place and she was already trying to find a way to kill Robert. Which is fine, smart, or whatever, but she risked her childrens lives on this one and imo that's to big of a risk. Everyone loved her face off with Ned and thought Cersei was a evil mastermind (until her pov) but what would everyone thought if Robert made it back? It was a boar, how could she even be certain they would find a boar?

[Elaena Targaryen]

I can't quite remember the quote, but I think there is a reference to a stray arrow striking down Robert if the boar hadn't done the job. Lancel would have found some means of killing him. Even had he returned, I'm sure that Cersei would have brazened out the allegations against her - and the Red Keep was mostly garrisoned by Lannister guards at that stage.

Yeah I couldn't remember if she had a back up plan or not. Do we know if this plan was made before or after her confrontation with Ned?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes but my point is that she already had this plan in place and she was already trying to find a way to kill Robert. Which is fine, smart, or whatever, but she risked her childrens lives on this one and imo that's to big of a risk. Everyone loved her face off with Ned and thought Cersei was a evil mastermind (until her pov) but what would everyone thought if Robert made it back? It was a boar, how could she even be certain they would find a boar?

Yes, that is the problem with hindsight bias. Cersei in Game was as idiotic, maybe even worse, than Cersei in Feast. But in Game she lucked through.

It is the same thing with Tywin. The guy was beaten in late Game and defacto on the chopping block through most of Clash. But he lucked through and now everyone claims him to be a great general when it was pure happenstance (and plot armor).

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I can't quite remember the quote, but I think there is a reference to a stray arrow striking down Robert if the boar hadn't done the job. Lancel would have found some means of killing him. Even had he returned, I'm sure that Cersei would have brazened out the allegations against her - and the Red Keep was mostly garrisoned by Lannister guards at that stage.

That is mentioned by Varys. The guy is not reliable. Through her conversation with Tyrion in Clash we know that she had no backup plan.

[Horza]

No, on itself no chance was unrealistic. Which chances do you attribute to each? 50/50? Then it all working out in Cerseis favor would be 1/1024. 75/25? It would be still 1/20. It was a ridiculous bet.

The probabilities are unknowable, but it doesn't strike me as ridiculous.

It's harder to deny them when it's an official announcement and Bob's still alive and orders the KG and GC to arrest Cersei and her children.

The pronouncements of a King who isn't going to be breathing in an hour tend to be less enforceable. As we know, the Gold Cloaks are biddable and there's a guy with a lot of coin who doesn't want Stannis on the throne...

But we know that she had no contingency plans. It was all or nothing. It was an idiotic risk.

Do we now? We know about that plan, Lancel didn't mention any others but no one bothered to ask.

The other reason I don't think it was a long shot, which I've alluded to above, is that someone else wanted Joffrey to inherit. Someone whose power and influence depends on being indispensable to stupid, lazy kings, whose rise has come with that of House Lannister and who wouldn't last a day under the reign of Stannis. That person was ready to give the Lannisters all the help his considerable talents could muster when he couldn't persuade Ned to keep the twincest a secret, and in a hypothetical situation like the one you proposed would have taken abrupt and probably effective action of his own.

That is mentioned by Varys. The guy is not reliable. Through her conversation with Tyrion in Clash we know that she had no backup plan.

Which conversation?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The probabilities are unknowable, but it doesn't strike me as ridiculous.

Please, make an educated guess.

The pronouncements of a King who isn't going to be breathing in an hour tend to be less enforceable. As we know, the Gold Cloaks are biddable and there's a guy with a lot of coin who doesn't want Stannis on the throne...

Half these chances would have prevented Bob from getting injured in the first place.

Do we now? We know about that plan, Lancel didn't mention any others but no one bothered to ask

Tyrion asked after details in Clash. Cersei didn't have a backup plan

The other reason I don't think it was a long shot, which I've alluded to above, is that someone else wanted Joffrey to inherit. Someone whose power and influence depends on being indispensable to stupid, lazy kings, whose rise has come with that of House Lannister and who wouldn't last a day under the reign of Stannis. That person was ready to give the Lannisters all the help his considerable talents could muster when he couldn't persuade Ned to keep the twincest a secret, and in a hypothetical situation like the one you proposed would have taken abrupt and probably effective action of his own.

Neither Ned nor Cersei had the slightest hint that this guy had a hand in the game too. For all Cersei knew, he even was on Neds side.

Which conversation?

The one in Clash when Tyrion arrives in KL to take over as Hand and has a private talk with his sister.

[Arland]

People also tend to forget that one huge thing that went against Ned was Renly's decision to claim the throne for himself and condition giving his help to Ned on having Ned's support for his claim. Ned could very reasonably expect that Renly will declare for Stannis and ally himself with Ned. Together they would have had much more force and influence, and Gold Clocks would have thought twice before trying to go against them... Not to say that in such case even if Renly and Ned could be beaten in Kings Landing any Lannister supporter could expect joint attack of Dargonstone, Reach, Stormlords and the North which they had no chance of witstaning. Only thanks to Renly's stupid bid to fight against Stanis , Lanisters lackeys in KL could hope for something and had the balls to act against Ned.

[Horza]

Please, make an educated guess.

I couldn't hope to do such, as it's not actually amenable to educated guesswork (which is all probability is, btw). I could list any percentage but it would still be unquantifiable. Suffice it to say that I think someone with an intimate knowledge of Robert Baratheon would be pretty justified in thinking that plying him with fortified wine and putting him in an situation involving wild beasts was a good way to get him killed.

Tyrion asked after details in Clash. Cersei didn't have a backup plan

Just read it. She doesn't mention a backup plan at all, which isn't evidence either way.

Neither Ned nor Cersei had the slightest hint that this guy had a hand in the game too. For all Cersei knew, he even was on Neds side.

Actually he's kind of taunting Ned the whole time, but there's no evidence either way as to what his communications with Cersei were, so fair point.