Was Ned really that stupid?

[David Selig]

People also tend to forget that one huge thing that went against Ned was Renly's decision to claim the throne for himself and condition giving his help to Ned on having Ned's support for his claim.

People don't forget it since it never happened.

[DaBillmann]

Yes, because they still wouldn't be Robert's children. It would be way less likely that Cersei and/or her children would be executed, though.

I disagree here. I dfon't think Roberts rage would have been confined to the fact that it was incest. I think he would go banannas over Cersei letting him think ANYBODIES children were his. AND the Queen being unfaithful to the King is treason regardless who her love is. I think.

[DaBillmann]

Oops, dpouble post. *Smacks myself*

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I couldn't hope to do such, as it's not actually amenable to educated guesswork (which is all probability is, btw). I could list any percentage but it would still be unquantifiable. Suffice it to say that I think someone with an intimate knowledge of Robert Baratheon would be pretty justified in thinking that plying him with fortified wine and putting him in an situation involving wild beasts was a good way to get him killed.

Well, unless you come up with a in my opinion ridiculous >= 80% for each of these ten single chances, the combined chance would be below 10%, in most cases far, far below. A sensible average chance of 50% would mean a 0.1% chance for Cersei to succeed and a 3% chance for her kids to be on Neds mercy instead of Bobs.

[The King in the South]

Well, Cersei was taking the long shot:

1. If Ned had changed his mind when she didn't run

2. If Bob hadn't gotten himself drunk

3. If he hadn't found a boar and wanted to take him alone

4. If Ser Barristan or somebody else stepped in

5. If the boar hadn't wounded Bob mortally

6. If Ned had gotten that it was an assassination attempt

7. If Ned had told Bob on his deathbed

8. If Ned had taken Renleys advice

9. If LF hadn't betrayed Ned

(10. If Ser Barristan would have stood with Ned and gotten him a bit more support)

Cersei and her children would be dead. A single one of these chances gone the other way and at least she would die for high treason and in most cases her children, too. The odds of it all working were almost non-existant.

Ned couldn't imagine that Cersei was willing to play russian roulette with a fully loaded automatic on the offchance that it would jam. Hell, that was as dumb as her Margaery scheme in Feast, only in Feast she has lost her plot armor.

First of all, stop acting like you know "the percentages" and shit. You're obviously not a statistician, and even if you were, theres no empirical evidence for half of this stuff.

Second of all, I never claimed Cersei's plans were brillant or anything, only that Ned was just stupid.

Now, on to your points

1. Well this is Ned being stupid right there, so I'm not sure what you're getting at.

2. Robert always gets drunk though. The chances of him not being drunk were far below 50%

3. A fair point, but again it's Robert. Doing shit like this isn't exactly rare for him.

4. Again, this is tied into Robert's arrogance. We've already seen he doesn't want help.

5. Well yes, but thats why she made sure he was drunk. You tend to injure yourself a lot more when you are drunk.

6. Okay? Once again this is Ned being "dumb", further re-iterating my point.

7. Robert on his deathbed isn't going to do much. We saw how Cersei dealt with his last will and testament.

8. Will address this below

9. Well this is the crux isn't it? None of these points really matter now. Even if Ned had done everything in a brillant fashion, if LF wanted he still would have won. He was in control of the guards, and that was easily enough to overpower Renly, Cersei, Ned, or even Robert if it came down to that. So yes, ultimately it was stupid of both Cersei and Ned to trust LF, but unlike Ned, Cersei has actually expierenced LF's ploys and actions, and since she gave him a much better offer, I'm inclined to believe she was less stupid than Ned in this case.

10. Against hired men and Lannister soldiers? Not really.

[The King in the South]

edit: i hate this computer

[David Selig]

Remember that Pycelle is a Lannister guy, he would've made sure any wound on Robert would end up being fatal.

Ned didn't have much time to change his mind. The timeline is confusing, but IIRC Robert was mortally wounded the next day after Ned's ultimatum to Cersei - Renly said it took 2 days to bring him back.

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

Short Answer: Yes

Long Answer- Ned overplayed his hand. Had he taken Renly's offering of 100 knights, and showed up with them to tell Cersi, it could have been way different. I think he underestimated how corrupt she was. Littlefinger didn't help much either.

[ChromeWeasel]

Yes, that is the problem with hindsight bias. Cersei in Game was as idiotic, maybe even worse, than Cersei in Feast. But in Game she lucked through.

It is the same thing with Tywin. The guy was beaten in late Game and defacto on the chopping block through most of Clash. But he lucked through and now everyone claims him to be a great general when it was pure happenstance (and plot armor).

Cersei is far from idiotic. She makes mistakes, just like everyone else in the books. But she more or less outwits her opponents for the bulk of the story.

[Grail King]

Well my take is:

1 Ned isn't stupid but was naive in the way houses do things down south, he politically followed the laws of Westerous, unfortunately no one else did.

2. Littlefinger being astute at what's going on in house Baratheon sets up the murder of Jon Aryn knowing Robert look to Ned, hence now LF and Varys pit Baratheon, Lannisters and Starks against each other for their own ends.

3. Cersei sick of Roberts abuse has already set in motion to become a widow, probably before they headed to Winterfell.

4. Ned spilling his knowledge to Cersei sealed his doom and maybe his house, and this is before he told the girls he was sending them home.

5. Sansa had no real blame in her fathers death, she was an innocent naive girl when she went to the Queen it went something along this line:

Sansa- Queen Cersei father has just inform me that he's sending me home, could you please talk to him, I love your son and wish to be in KL.

Cersi- Little Dove your father knows whats best for you but I would love to have my future daughter in law in KL, I will speak to him on your behalf. (in Cersei's mind shit! they're leaving today, Cersei pulls her triggers).

Ned dies, Sansa is a prisoner finally learns what the Queen and New King rally are, a small fly in the ointment Arya escapes thanks to Sereol and Yoren Realm is now at war Littlefinger and Varys are dancing to their own tunes fanning the flames.

And the beat goes on.

ETA: change a word or two.

[Roose Seal]

Cersei is far from idiotic. She makes mistakes, just like everyone else in the books. But she more or less outwits her opponents for the bulk of the story.

The only person Cersei truly outmaneuvered is Ned and that's just because she was playing the game and he wasn't. In Clash and Storm, she doesn't outwit anyone, she can't even prevent her beloved son from being murdered right under her nose.

In Feast, Cersei has no-one to curb her foolishness and she pretty much self-destructed.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

First of all, stop acting like you know "the percentages" and shit. You're obviously not a statistician, and even if you were, theres no empirical evidence for half of this stuff.

I would appreciate it if you wouldn't comment on the professional background of somebody you don't know anything about.

And no, I don't know "the percentages", I'm calcuating back from the entire plan having a decent risk and getting unrealistic chances. Feel free to post your guesses.

Second of all, I never claimed Cersei's plans were brillant or anything, only that Ned was just stupid.

Now, on to your points

1. Well this is Ned being stupid right there, so I'm not sure what you're getting at.

2. Robert always gets drunk though. The chances of him not being drunk were far below 50%

3. A fair point, but again it's Robert. Doing shit like this isn't exactly rare for him.

4. Again, this is tied into Robert's arrogance. We've already seen he doesn't want help.

5. Well yes, but thats why she made sure he was drunk. You tend to injure yourself a lot more when you are drunk.

6. Okay? Once again this is Ned being "dumb", further re-iterating my point.

7. Robert on his deathbed isn't going to do much. We saw how Cersei dealt with his last will and testament.

8. Will address this below

9. Well this is the crux isn't it? None of these points really matter now. Even if Ned had done everything in a brillant fashion, if LF wanted he still would have won. He was in control of the guards, and that was easily enough to overpower Renly, Cersei, Ned, or even Robert if it came down to that. So yes, ultimately it was stupid of both Cersei and Ned to trust LF, but unlike Ned, Cersei has actually expierenced LF's ploys and actions, and since she gave him a much better offer, I'm inclined to believe she was less stupid than Ned in this case.

10. Against hired men and Lannister soldiers? Not really.

1. Cersei couldn't know. She barely knows Ned.

2. Until now he was never so drunk to kill himself while hunting.

3. Allright, that's Robert. 90% chance?

4. Well , Ser Barristan could step in one way or the other. He was obliged to do.

5. Again, a chance, in no way a foregone conclusion.

6. Yes, Ned has a lapse. Another chance taken on a guy she barely knows. Oh, and neither Varys nor someone else pointed it out for Ned.

7. The testament he wrote alone with Ned. Bit harder to do with an official order screamed at 50 knights and executed before he died. Execution being literal.

8, 9 & 10. LF came to Cersei, not the other way round. She didn't do anything to get the troops. And even with LFs help, a bit of open battle in KL with honorable Ned and honorable Barristan slain by the disgusting Lannister henchmen (remember the Sack) is quite of an opening for Robb, Renley and Stannis.

[LadyoftheNorth72]

I realize this is not a popular opinion, but it would not have surprised me at all if Robert already suspected the kids were not his. Jaime and Cersei were insanely careless in how/when they conducted their affair. If others can look at Robert's bastards and then at his three heirs and think there is something a bit off here, then there is no reason why Robert could not do the same. It seems that everyone largely bases their prediction of Robert's reaction to the news on two things: his willingness and determination to have a child (Dany) murdered, and Ned's certainty that Robert would go nuts and have them all killed.

My problem with this is that Robert was obviously completed whipped by his marriage situation long ago. He is utterly surrounded by and dependent upon Lannisters. Suddenly killing his wife and kids, even with the reasoning well known, is going to convince people that he is a monster or has gone mad - Ned would certainly not be the only person who would be appalled at the murder of the children. It would have meant another war, since obviously the Lannisters would not just sit there and go, "well, gosh, she brought it on herself and the kids.". And this would be a war Robert was like as not to lose. At minimum, it would have caused absolute chaos in the realm, something Robert absolutely did not want.

We also have many signs that Robert has more or less given up on caring about anything besides his hobbies of drinking and whoring, and that he is willing to go along with Cersei/the Lannisters even when they were clearly in the wrong. He goes along with her request for Lady's death when he could have said no. He orders Ned to kiss and make up with Jaime, and get Cat to stop all this nonsense with Tyrion. I think it is apparent that Robert is utterly cowed by his in-laws. We know that he never bonded or had much to do with any of the three children. Cersei (sort of) explained her rationale for his disinterest in Joff, but really, does a father decide to completely disassociate himself from his heir because the kid was a little afraid of him as a baby? And what about the other two? He might have disliked the child Joff grew into, but Tommen and Myrcella were as sweet and pleasant children as a man could want. Yet Robert apparently had no interest in them either ...we never even see him so much as speak a word to any of them.

He might not have been SURE that the three children were not his, but I would bet the farm that he at least suspected. He just did not have the guts or strength anymore to do anything about it, so he did what he always turned to when faced with an unpleasant fact: he ignored it. I think if Ned (or anyone else) had ever actually gotten around to telling Robert they suspected his children were fathered by his brother in law, they might very well have found themselves in the position they expected Cersei to wind up in - imprisoned and/or dead to shut them up, and the matter swept under the rug. That way there is no war, no conflict, Robert is not utterly humiliated and laughed at by the entire kingdom for a cuckold and a fool, and Robert can simply go about his business of indulging himself into an early grave. The fact that the children were not his appears to have been one of the worst kept secrets at court; many of the men closest to the throne appear to have known or suspected. The only ones who seemed shocked or inclined to "investigate" or try to find proof were the truly honorable and good men like Arryn and Ned. Everyone else just kind of went "oh, well.". I think the reason is because in a way, they actually KNEW Robert better than Ned or Jon Arryn did by then. They knew Robert had no interest in being enlightened and his reaction was far from a surety, and it simply wasn't worth the risk. That is why Stannis fled rather than tell.

Sooo...this is my long winded way of saying yes, Ned really was that stupid. He was so sure what Robert's reaction would be, he completely ignored the overwhelming evidence that Robert was in no way the man he had known years before. And conversely, I think that Cersei's position was not nearly as foolhardy or risky as is assumed, because she knew Robert was weak as well and probably assumed (with some justification) that even if Ned made it to Robert with the accusation, chances were that all she would have to do was feign outrage at the suggestion, demand Ned's head for even speaking of such a thing, and then let Robert's weaknes and dread of confrontation with her family do the rest. After all, what proof did Ned really have? The hair color of a few bastards vs. the hair color of Cersei's kids? And over this he expected Robert to tear the kingdom apart?

Robert himself made it very clear that all he wanted was to be left in peace to do what he pleased, and anything that disturbed that pissed him off. I think Ned was on a complete fool's errand the entire time. And let's say that Cersei had suddenly decided to take Ned's advice and run ...this goes badly for Ned no matter whic way Robert reacts. Either he is pissed at Ned that now he has to hunt down his wife and kids and haul them all back to KL and do a cover up of why they ran, or he really does want to kill them all and is roundly pissed at Ned for giving Cersei a chance to escape.

No, Ned was not the sharpest knife in the drawer. At best, you could say that his noble and honorable shock at discovering the truth prevented him from thinking the situation through at all.

[ChromeWeasel]

The only person Cersei truly outmaneuvered is Ned and that's just because she was playing the game and he wasn't. In Clash and Storm, she doesn't outwit anyone, she can't even prevent her beloved son from being murdered right under her nose.

In Feast, Cersei has no-one to curb her foolishness and she pretty much self-destructed.

She outwits her husband Robert, both Baratheon brothers that claim the throne, Ned, Sir Loras, and Margary Tyrell all to some extent. Cersei does self-destruct, but that doesnt mean that she hasn't had some respectable accomplishments. She's got an effective network of spies and informers through most of the story and she accomplishes almost every desire she's ever had by the last book. That's not the record of an idiot. You have to admit that she's done very well for herself before hubris brings her down.

[Morte]

great posting

Thinking about it, you could indeed be right, though I would say that Robert did not know it consciously, more like a feeling of something being wrong.

However, no matter if he knew or not: You are completely right about his reaction to a revelation: it would be a 50:50 chance for Ned to get himself imprisoned/killed or Cersei and the children killed, considering Robert's pride.

He could have even get both sides killed - first the revelator and then, after a while, Cersei and the children.

[Roose Seal]

She outwits her husband Robert, both Baratheon brothers that claim the throne, Ned, Sir Loras, and Margary Tyrell all to some extent. Cersei does self-destruct, but that doesnt mean that she hasn't had some respectable accomplishments. She's got an effective network of spies and informers through most of the story and she accomplishes almost every desire she's ever had by the last book. That's not the record of an idiot. You have to admit that she's done very well for herself before hubris brings her down.

I'll give you Ned and Robert (even if she was pretty lucky there) but the rest I'm going to disagree.

She didn't get the best of Renly. I'm pretty sure Renly would be sitting on the throne right now if it wasn't for the Shadow Baby. He had the full might of Highgarden to back him and had his army made it to King's Landing, I'm pretty sure Cersei's head would be on a spike.

Stannis is sort of a tricky one but she didn't outwit him. Stannis is the true heir to the Throne but he has no one's support. What was he supposed to do ? Just walk in the throne room and claim the throne ? Sure, the Lannisters defeated him at Blackwater, but she had no part in that victory, most of the credit goes to Tyrion, then Tywin, then the Tyrells.

Ser Loras, I'm not sure how exactly ? Actually, it seems as though Ser Loras is the one playing her by pretending to be grievously wounded.

Margaery... well she only thought she got Margaery, look at how her little plan backfired.

She couldn't even see Aurane Waters had been playing her from the start.

The only reason Cersei remained in a position of power throughout Clash and Storm is because she had the wealth of Casterly Rock, her father's full support (which is anything but negligeable) and finally, the fact that most of the population consider Joffrey the true king.

Once Tywin and Joff were dead, she didn't last very long, did she ?

I love Cersei as a character, but she's much less competent a schemer than she believes herself to be.

[The Red Wake]

I love Cersei as a character, but she's much less competent a schemer than she believes herself to be.

This is really what Cersei is all about. Her arrogance is grotesquely large, she thinks that because she's a Lannister, and a Queen by right of marriage and money, that she'd be a great leader despite never having ruled anything in her life. After living in the shadow of her father and Robert, she saw her chance to be a queen, but her sense of entitlement blinded her to the fact that other people around her aren't servants to blindly accept her rule.

Ironically, I think she's become exactly what Robert was, a figurehead whilst still thinking of her former husband as a drunken pig not fit for rule.

[Catastrophe]

I disagree here. I dfon't think Roberts rage would have been confined to the fact that it was incest. I think he would go banannas over Cersei letting him think ANYBODIES children were his. AND the Queen being unfaithful to the King is treason regardless who her love is. I think.

The Queen being unfaithful isn't treason in and of itself. King Baelor's wife cheated on him and even gave birth to another man's child, and it wasn't considered treason on her part, since the child was acknowledged as a bastard. The reason Cersei was guilty of treason was because she tried to pass off her bastards as the King's own trueborn heirs.

However, the fact that she'd had children with her own brother made her crime significantly worse. I'm not sure if incest is actually illegal in Westeros, but it is considered a major sin by both the Faith of the Seven and the followers of the Old Gods, and even non-religious Westerosi see it as a terrible abomination against nature. People put up with the Targaryens doing it, since the Targaryens were seen as having a "mystical bloodline," but most Westerosi would've been utterly disgusted by Jaime and Cersei's relationship. That would've made the situation even more embarassing for Robert, which makes it that much more likely that he'd take out his anger on her and the kids.

If Cersei had cheated on Robert with someone she wasn't related to, and admitted from the start that her bastard son wasn't really his, Robert wouldn't have had any legitimate reason to have her executed. Of course, he was the King, so he could've ordered her execution anyway (Aegon the Unworthy had a man executed just for sleeping with his mistress), but he wouldn't have had any legal rationale for it. It would've been seen as an abuse of power on par with the Mad King's executions of Rickard and Brandon Stark, his subjects would've detested him for it, and it would've given Tywin Lannister just cause to rebel against his regime.

[The King in the South]

I would appreciate it if you wouldn't comment on the professional background of somebody you don't know anything about.

And no, I don't know "the percentages", I'm calcuating back from the entire plan having a decent risk and getting unrealistic chances. Feel free to post your guesses.

1. Cersei couldn't know. She barely knows Ned.

2. Until now he was never so drunk to kill himself while hunting.

3. Allright, that's Robert. 90% chance?

4. Well , Ser Barristan could step in one way or the other. He was obliged to do.

5. Again, a chance, in no way a foregone conclusion.

6. Yes, Ned has a lapse. Another chance taken on a guy she barely knows. Oh, and neither Varys nor someone else pointed it out for Ned.

7. The testament he wrote alone with Ned. Bit harder to do with an official order screamed at 50 knights and executed before he died. Execution being literal.

8, 9 & 10. LF came to Cersei, not the other way round. She didn't do anything to get the troops. And even with LFs help, a bit of open battle in KL with honorable Ned and honorable Barristan slain by the disgusting Lannister henchmen (remember the Sack) is quite of an opening for Robb, Renley and Stannis.

Care to post your equation/procedures on determining these percentages? The fact is you really can't set something up from a book where factors themselves are un-measurable to form actual percentages. That's what I have a problem with, if you say something like "It's likely" or "Doubtful" then you can back it up with words, but with actual percentages, no, you really can't. I'm sorry if I offended you in this regard, but this is a pretty basic statistical lesson, (you need actual data/measurements to determine likelihoods), which is why I wouldn't have cut you much slack there. Moving on...

1. This is about Ned though. Cersei prepared herself for him to do something regardless of whether he changed his mind.

2. He was never given strongwine before. and that certainly ups his chances.

3. The truth is regarding this point we don't really know what would have happened. Maybe he gets back to the city and a fight breaks out. Maybe Cersei hear's Robert is still alive and has him or Ned poisoned, I don't really know.

4. See #3

5. See #3

6. I don't what Ned does here even if he knows. Robert is already dying at this point.

7. Wait what? I'm saying is it doesn't matter what Ned and Robert write, Cersei is just going to tear it up like she did.

8. As LF also "came to Ned" and promised him troops. Neither Cersei nor Ned was completely in control of the situation. Both relied on luck, but I think the difference is Cersei knew she was relying on luck, where as Ned didn't. (At least not as much). Hence the, "Was Ned stupid"?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Care to post your equation/procedures on determining these percentages? The fact is you really can't set something up from a book where factors themselves are un-measurable to form actual percentages. That's what I have a problem with, if you say something like "It's likely" or "Doubtful" then you can back it up with words, but with actual percentages, no, you really can't. I'm sorry if I offended you in this regard, but this is a pretty basic statistical lesson, (you need actual data/measurements to determine likelihoods), which is why I wouldn't have cut you much slack there. Moving on...

1. This is about Ned though. Cersei prepared herself for him to do something regardless of whether he changed his mind.

2. He was never given strongwine before. and that certainly ups his chances.

3. The truth is regarding this point we don't really know what would have happened. Maybe he gets back to the city and a fight breaks out. Maybe Cersei hear's Robert is still alive and has him or Ned poisoned, I don't really know.

4. See #3

5. See #3

6. I don't what Ned does here even if he knows. Robert is already dying at this point.

7. Wait what? I'm saying is it doesn't matter what Ned and Robert write, Cersei is just going to tear it up like she did.

8. As LF also "came to Ned" and promised him troops. Neither Cersei nor Ned was completely in control of the situation. Both relied on luck, but I think the difference is Cersei knew she was relying on luck, where as Ned didn't. (At least not as much). Hence the, "Was Ned stupid"?

P(Cersei winning) = x1 * x2 * x3 * x4 * x5 * x6 * x7 * x8 * x9 * x10. Choose sensible (subjective) P(Cersei winning) and determine average xa with a in {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}. Compare xa with your impression from the books. Yes, it is largely subjective. But for a sensible P(Cersei winning), xa needs to be ridiculous high.

1. Actually, she doesn't. Killing or at least silencing him would be sensible, but she does nothing.

2. That makes Bob drunken faster. It doesn't widen the gap between "sober enough to not kill himself" and "too drunk to walk".

3-5. If he had gotten back to the city, Ned would have told him first thing. Either Cersei is capable to bring enough support to win an open battle with the King in Kings Landing and keep it silent enough not to be called "Kingslayer in skirts" (very unlikely) or she and her children are dead.

6. Get the Small Council and as many witnesses as possible to Bob and tell him "your wife murdered you to hide her fucking her twin and passing of their children as yours. What are your orders?"

7. Cersei can tear it up because she is Queen Regent, Joffrey is King and she has enough backing in the room to get away with it. With Bob still alive she hasn't.

8. Ned goes to LF, LF goes to Cersei. Ned works for support and gets betrayed, Cersei gets support dropped in her lap.

Ned is considered stupid, because he took for a woman with at least half a brain. But Cersei is a narciss who can't imagine anything going wrong. She takes an absurd and absolutely crazy chance, which Ned doesn't take for possible. And because otherwise the books would be a lot shorter, Cersei lucked through (in Game. In Feast she tries something similar with Marg, with way better chances and it ends in a catastrophy).