Why can't Aegon be the real deal?

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

me too

we should realy found an "aegon is Real" Faction

We should do just that. Varys and Illyrio have a history of stealing valuable things and returning them in return for great reward. What can be more valuable than stealing the second in line for the Iron Throne? I don't put any stock in any prophecies or of the visions Dany had.

[Dark Rider]

Well, I would like to think he was legit. My only hang-up is that Dany in the House of the Undying is told that she will have to kill the lie...or something to that effect.

Plus it just makes no sense why we learn about the Blackfyre Rebellion and their connection with the Gold Company to later have Griff show-up with the Gold Company. Why bring all that up in the story if it doesn't go anywhere? If Varys is a Targ loyalist than why did he enable the Mad King's paranoia? I mean the Mad King sort of gets pushed into overdrive paranoia when Varys comes to court.

Why would Illyrio really care about placing a Targ back on the throne? If Varys and Illyrio were such Targ loyalist why didn't they do anything to help Viserys and Dany while they were the begger king and princess? Illyrio is heavily invested in Griff and I don't think it's so he can gain favor with the King of Westeros. My theory is that Illyrio is a Blackfyre (we know he was a sellsword when he was young) and I'm guessing he was connected to the Gold Company himself when he was younger. Griff is likely Illyrio's son, a Blackfyre, that they are seeking to place back on the throne.

[sarah.jenice]

When I read the book, I never once questioned if he was who it said he was because it seemed like such a big deal that Tyrion pieced the clues together. I was so excited to learn Rhaegar's infant was alive and that Tyrion figured out the mystery. But that was before I started reading this forum and I've seen so many arguments saying he is a Blackfyre or Illyrio's son that are really convincing.

Personally, I would like him to be Aegon, continue on as a competent and likable king and battle strategist and winning major battles. If he had a good marriage alliance, I wouldn't mind him being on the Iron Throne in the end. But I know this isn't Disney and that most likely won't happen. If he is really Aegon, I think he will do well in battles like Robb, but ultimately not do well in the Game of Thrones and die that way. As we've seen with Robb, Joffrey, Sweetrobin, Sansa, Dany and Quenten, the pawns in the Game have a pretty hard road and even real, he is a pawn and he's playing to Varys' tune. Part of me thinks he will die tragically fighting the Others but since he doesn't know about them, it just doesn't seem like his fight as much as it is Jon's.

Even if he's a Blackfyre, I do not like the idea of Dany flying in and saying, "You're the mummer's dragon," and torching him that I have seen in other topics. We didn't see much of him, but I'm just not fond of the death of innocents and that would be killing an innocent. If he's Varys' pawn, I don't think he knows.

I can't wait to see what Arianne thinks of him when she sees him.

[Smokefall]

The "mummer's dragon" thing is pretty revealing, but so is the insinuation that Jon is the true heir... Mormont's raven, presumably being warged by Bloodraven, going "king, king" etc.

[sarah.jenice]

This has been discussed many times over the highlights of the Aegon is fake argument:

-Quaithe warns Dany about a 'mummer's dragon'

-In the House of the Undying Dany sees a cloth dragon

-Dany is supposed to be the 'slayer of lies'

-The Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel, a Blackfyre supporter, who vowed to one day seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. The Golden Company is now supporting Aegon

-Varys is said to have contributed to Aerys' madness, leading many to suspect he is a Blackfyre trying to undermine the Targs

-If Illyrio and Varys are all about Targs, why did they do such a shitty job of helping Dany and Viserys, why didn't they reveal Aegon to them? Perhaps because they actually support the Blackfyres

-Illyrio appears to be very attached to Young Griff, suggesting that he is his child with a female Blackfyre

To add to this, when I was re-reading Dance, the fact that Tyrion is wearing a small boy's clothing while staying with Illyrio make it seem very much like they were YG's clothes, and Illyrio does seem sentimental about them. And even though Tyrion is a dwarf, the boy had to have been staying with Illyrio for a few years which do make the baby switch seem less likely. If there was a baby switch, why would Illyrio's house be the first stop for 5 or so years? I guess it was the only place Varys thought he was safe, but he would have been safe in Dorne, too. Why keep him all these years and train him to be king if there was no plan?

[Dark Rider]

Yeah, I would love to see him actually be the heir to the throne and marry Sansa so Sansa could be Queen. Lord knows Sansa has learned all the lessons about what it takes to be a Queen. She'd be a damn good Queen.

[Sasha Steelsong]

We should do just that. Varys and Illyrio have a history of stealing valuable things and returning them in return for great reward. What can be more valuable than stealing the second in line for the Iron Throne? I don't put any stock in any prophecies or of the visions Dany had.

The problem with that is that we do know that some of what she saw in the house of the undying is true, so you can't just dismiss them as crazy prophecy that play no part in the actual story which is what you are doing.

The Red Wedding definitely happened and she had a vision of that.

Aerys definitely said that "he shall be king of ashes" before he gave the order to torch Kings Landing right before the Lannisters took the city.

She saw her arrival to the house with the red door AND Viserys death.

Prophecies actually do have meaning in this series, sometimes it is a very figurative meaning and others are more in your face litteral but to say they aren't worth anything is I think severely misreading the reality of the world GRRM created. And this does not even take into account the other prophecies that have also come to pass (the woman on the bluff who also predicts the Red Wedding to Arya - Maggi's prophecies to Cersei some of which have also come true).

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

The problem with that is that we do know that some of what she saw in the house of the undying is true, so you can't just dismiss them as crazy prophecy that play no part in the actual story which is what you are doing.

The Red Wedding definitely happened and she had a vision of that.

Aerys definitely said that "he shall be king of ashes" before he gave the order to torch Kings Landing right before the Lannisters took the city.

She saw her arrival to the house with the red door AND Viserys death.

Prophecies actually do have meaning in this series, sometimes it is a very figurative meaning and others are more in your face litteral but to say they aren't worth anything is I think severely misreading the reality of the world GRRM created. And this does not even take into account the other prophecies that have also come to pass (the woman on the bluff who also predicts the Red Wedding to Arya - Maggi's prophecies to Cersei some of which have also come true).

Perhaps I posted without thinking. I actually just passed that part during my re-read and the Red Wedding did jump out at me. Seeing the house with the red door and seeing her brothers death are memories of hers so I wouldn't call those prophecies. Some have proven to be true but does that mean they all have to be true?

[Faint]

Some have proven to be true but does that mean they all have to be true?

Perhaps not but are you really going to work under that assumption when none of them have proved false?

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

Perhaps not but are you really going to work under that assumption when none of them have proved false?

I will work under that assumption until the story is finished.

[Faint]

I find the prophecies given during Daenerys' visit to the House of the Undying quite controversial among readers but I think most of the controversy stems from a desire that one or another of the prophecies not come true, usually because they conflict with (1) how a reader thinks the story should go; (2) how a readers wants the story to go; or (3) a cherished theory the reader has.

That said, I find no evidence the prophecies are not completely true, if somewhat opaque. As has already been pointed, they have already been right on the button about some things, allude to past events that did happen, and further suggest that readers are right about some popular theories (i.e., Jon Targaryen). Or, as my brother put it: “We were waiting for fake Aegon for all these years, well, we finally got him.”

In any case, I guess there are two types of readers, those that try to predict the story by fitting speculation within the framework of the prophecies, and those that ignore the prophecies completely or ignore them when convenient.

I’m certainly of the former kind.

[John Ball]

I lean towards thinking he's fake but I'm not totally sure, and I don't think it's as clear cut yet. The reasons can be explained away, to me at least, enough to make it possible that he's the real deal.

Firstly, the idea that the baby swap only makes sense in retrospect. I don't think so. If Varys wanted to save the kids life, it made sense to take him, there didn't have to be a swap but that would make getting him out and keeping him alive easier (and is well within Varys' capabilities to pull it off imo). The big suggestion is people would have known if Gregor hadn't smashed the baby's head - maybe, maybe not. Do we know for sure that the infant had blazing purple eyes and silver hair? These things often change in childhood.Infants look fairly alike, and most of these people, Robert, Ned, and so on have probably never clapped eyes on Aegon in their lives. Jaime, I suppose, maybe the only one who would know. Clegane was sent to kill the baby and however he did it, a baby in Aegon's room, in Aegon's cot is going to be evidence enough that it's Aegon, I think.

Secondly, the Aegon Blackfyre theory. I don't really remember all the details of all the history and family trees, people seem to think Illyrio could have had a kid with a Blackfyre woman so I'll take it from that their line exists in some form (anyone who can clarify this for me, please feel free :)). Wouldn't it be something of a phyrric victory for people loyal to Blackfyre to put a their King on the throne with the whole of Westeros, including the kid himself, thinking that he's Aegon Targaryen? His dynasty will always be called Targaryen, for all intents and purposes that's what they will be. Even if the Blackfyre's would have taken the Targ name had they won, that is because they'd claim to be the rightful heirs. But no one will ever know about this victory, if the Golden Company is remembered it will be for putting a true Targ on the throne, not a Blackfyre. So what do they win? Glory, lands, and wealth under a new king, their king, The same prize whoever he is, Blackfyre, Targryen, or long lost Lannister! Even if it were a Blackfyre 99.99% of them wouldn't know it. Only the leaders would know, maybe not even them. So following a Targ, not that big a problem for the Golden Company.

Thirdly, Varys and Illyrio, why help Viserys and Dany at all? Even if they thought they weren't helping them, sending them off with the Dothraki, why not just sell them out to Robert or get rid of them some other, quicker, easier, deadlier way? Unless they are keeping them as a backup option - but that brings me back to my previous point re: the Golden Company, would they do this is the Blackfyre point was so important to them? The idea of Varys being a Blackfyre and therefore fueling Aerys' madness... perhaps. But who accuses him? There's a lot of people dislike and distrust Varys, people that were maybe loyal to Aerys, people looking for a scapegoat and finding an easy one in the spider. This version of events isn't neccesarily the asbsolute truth. Even if it is, Varys' motives are still not entirely clear. Even if the Blackfyre theories are right some of his words and actions still don't quite make sense. And why lie to Keven Lannister, a dead man?

"Aegon? Dead. He's dead."

"No. He is here."

Finally, my weakest points (I feel :P). The reasons for Jon Cinnington wanting to believe Aegon is real are crashingly obvious, his eye colour and hair colour can be explained away too. But Griff did know Rheagar and Elia well, he knew their faces. Would hair and eye colour be enough to fool him, or does Aegon resemble his possible parents even more closely than that? If he does, that casts doubt on at least two or three theories of his parentage!

But then there's the prophecies and visions. Enough of these have been right to show that they exist beyond doubt in the world. Some I think will be proved wrong before the game is over, and they can clearly be misread, or just so ambiguous that people (readers and characters) can apply them to whoever they please. There could be other liars and false dragons. They could apply to Ben Plumm!

But that doesn't seem too likely. :dunno:

[corbon]

I don't think he can't be, I think he isn't. Big difference there.

And Jon Connington, I'm sure, thinks he's 100% real. But that isn't really evidence of anything, given that Connington didn't meet this child until he was 4-5 years old. The problem with the switch is that it only really works in hindsight. Namely, Varys had no way to know that Gregor would make Aegon unrecognizable. Aegon was very young but still old enough to have certain distinct features (i.e. we know he had the Targ look). If Varys had made a switch and Gregor hadn't destroyed Aegon's face, the jig would've been up. The idea of a switch being plausible "because Aegon was unrecognizable" works because Aegon was unrecognizable. Meaning, Varys can retcon a baby switch and people can go, "Well yeah, it's possible because no one could've recognized Aegon's face." But at the time, it wasn't a guarantee that Aegon would be unidentifiable pulp.

That is a really lame argument.

Gregor would certainly not have stayed around "Aegon's" dead body after he had finished with Elia in that room (nor, there is a reasonable chance, would any other sacker, but they would move on to find loot or more victims). If Varys is hiding close by with the switched Aegon (in a secret tunnel etc) then it is very likely to be a trivial thing for him to slip back out an smash the dead substitute's face in.

Littlefinger is a master at 'on the fly' operations. He tells the most ridiculous bullshit that could trivially be uncovered if poeple tried, but people simply aren;t that sophisticated. There is no reason to think that Varys is incapable of putting together an on-the-fly operation. It works, we've seen it.

[Nymphetamine]

Aegon is a Blackfyre and the son of Illyrio Mopatis.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

For me, the Aegon is a Blackfyre theory is probably almost as certainly correct as R+L=J. If you disagree, hopefully GRRM will ultimately give us closure on this in the next 6-12 years.

For now, this is one the best things I've seen on the subject:

[corbon]

For me, the Aegon is a Blackfyre theory is probably almost as certainly correct as R+L=J. If you disagree, hopefully GRRM will ultimately give us closure on this in the next 6-12 years.

For now, this is one the best things I've seen on the subject:

http://asoiaf.wester...-evidence-ever/

Despite the fact that it is on the slimmest of circumstantial evidence, and more importantly, multiple reasonable alternatives present themselves?

I'm not saying he is definitely not a Blackfyre, just that this theory is a very long way from being rock solid.

[SerDavosShepherd]

I'm not saying whether or not I'm convinced Aegon is the real deal, but the "mummers dragon" and "cloth dragon" could both have been Quentyn Martell as well.

He came to Dany claiming to have blood of the Dragon, and obviously didn't make the Cut.

Again not saying He is for sure legit, just that I don't believe that argument really plays into it at all

[Revan Baratheon]

Yeah, I would love to see him actually be the heir to the throne and marry Sansa so Sansa could be Queen. Lord knows Sansa has learned all the lessons about what it takes to be a Queen. She'd be a damn good Queen.

She would be like Renly.She would know her courtesy and would have a talent for diplomacy,but would ultimately be like copper(pretty to look at but not much more).She would however be better choice than Cersei or Arianne.I think she would be on par with Danerys as a ruling Queen.

[King Bronn l]

I don't think he can't be, I think he isn't. Big difference there.

And Jon Connington, I'm sure, thinks he's 100% real. But that isn't really evidence of anything, given that Connington didn't meet this child until he was 4-5 years old. The problem with the switch is that it only really works in hindsight. Namely, Varys had no way to know that Gregor would make Aegon unrecognizable. Aegon was very young but still old enough to have certain distinct features (i.e. we know he had the Targ look). If Varys had made a switch and Gregor hadn't destroyed Aegon's face, the jig would've been up. The idea of a switch being plausible "because Aegon was unrecognizable" works because Aegon was unrecognizable. Meaning, Varys can retcon a baby switch and people can go, "Well yeah, it's possible because no one could've recognized Aegon's face." But at the time, it wasn't a guarantee that Aegon would be unidentifiable pulp.

Mind you sending Clegane, an Lorch after someone, kind of ensures un-identifablity if you know what I mean

[ServantOnIce]

Aegon is a Blackfyre and the son of Illyrio Mopatis.

I have heard folks say that, but where is the proof? I know we like to kick around theories on the board . . but two things that I have read in the books support him being fake are

1. The paper dragon in the House of Undying . .

2. Quaithe of the Shadow telling Dany, "The Mummer's Dragon, trust none of them."

Mummer's are known for their tricks and deception those hint as the vision of "The dead man with a head of a wolf, he was holding a leg of lamb like a king would hold a sceptre." Folks had to know in "Clash of Kings" that Robb was as good as dead and he would die at a some sort of celebration.

But I don't see any real proof that he is Illyrio's son, but I could be wrong. Martin will sort this all out for us in Winter . ..