Why can't Aegon be the real deal?

[sarah.jenice]

Not to place undue reliance on the House of the Undying, but when Dany sees her vision of Rhaegar, he has Aegon (and we know that's really what the vision is) and still says that there has to be a third, indicating that (1) even if he's real, Aegon doesn't fulfill the prophecy; and (2) at the time of Aegon's birth, if there is going to be literal fulfillment of the prophecy, that person had not yet been born. Neither Jon nor Dany had been born then, so they could still be AA, but just not be candidates for ruling Westeros.

That's not how I take what Rhaegar says. I think he did think Aegon was the fulfillment of the prophecy, and when he was trying for one more child/dragon head, he was hoping for Visenya since he already had Rhaenys.

The full House of the Undying vision says: (A Clash of Kings Paperback - Page 701)

Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother's hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. "Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. "What better name for a king?" "Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked. "He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads." He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way

I like where you are going that Aegon could be meant to sit the Iron Throne, and someone else could be AA reborn or the Prince that was Promised so he has some purpose in the series, but I think Rhaegar thought he was the one.

I wish we knew the prophecy that Rhaegar and Maester Aemon knew. Is is what Melisandre keeps saying or do they have another, Targ specific prophecy? Maybe Sam will find it in the Citadel.

[dtones520]

Back to my Quaithe statement there is something there that really could mean that Aegon is a fakie . . and that is Quaithe calls everyone by their real status except him

Kraken (Vic Greyjoy)

Black Flame (Moqorro)

Griffin (Connington)

Lion (Tyrion)

Mummer's (Actor's) Dragon . .

I think Quaithe has said in "DWD" what all you are hinting, that this Aegon is a fake and is a Blackfyre, that would make sense why the GC who was formed of companies and vagabounds after the failed attempts to seize the throne . . the throne is what Varys and Illyrio want, more than that they want a "Glorious Restoration" like what occurred in 1660 in England.

You left out the Sun's Son. That is said in the same line as the Mummer's Dragon. The Sun is Doran Martell, the son is Quentyn Martell. Mummer's is plural in the book, meaning that the Dragon she is referring to is some mummer's (Varys) dragon. Which would say to me that Aegon is a dragon, but is Varys' dragon.

If Varys is truly "for the realm" like he says he is, him putting the true Targaryan heir on the throne makes sense. Sending Dany and Viserys off to die eliminates anyone trying to take Aegons throne. That plan half worked, but Dany hatches some Dragons, Illyrio and Varys realize that Aegon cant compete with Dragons, send him to Dany to wed and get the drsgons for whatever they want to do with them.

What i dont umderstand is why everyone thinks Quaithe is trying to help Dany. Why should she go to Asshai like Quaithe seems to want her to? Dany's goal is to win back the throne. Tyrion, Quentyn, Victarion, Aegon, eberyone Quaithe is "warning" her of is someone who is going to strengthen Danys attempt at winning the Throne. Do they have their motives? Yes. But their motives are all well known, Quiathes are not. Everyone Dany met in Qarth was trying to use Dany for something. Xaro, Pyat Pree and the Warlocks...but somehow Quaithe, because she is so mysterious and cryptic about it, seems to get a pass. People read so much into her prophecies and overlook that she is trying to influence Dany ad much as anyone else.

[sarah.jenice]

I totally agree with that. I'm reading Clash for the second time and the Red Wedding jumped out at me.My father used to tell me that about the Lord of the Rings. I've picked up so many things that I missed the first time through. I can't wait for season 2.

I can't wait either!

And I especially can't wait for the episode with the House of the Undying because I am really hopeful we wil get a better understanding of what's critical by what we see and what the show includes or doesn't include. When they omitted Mirri Maaz Duur's comment about Dany seemingly being barren, it made me wonder if that wasn't important.

The main thing I'm excited and worried about is how they will handle her visions because unlike with the book, we could recognize characters Dany sees (even though she doesn't). Like when she see the feast of corpses, will we see the costuming of some Northmen or will we see Jamie with Aerys in that vision? Since we don't have an actress for Elia or Lyanna, it wouldn't give anything away to have that scene with the baby (at first I thought it was Lyanna with Rhaegar even though he named him Aegon). And in the vision where Rhaegar dies, he whispers a woman's name. Will we hear it? That would be huge if we heard him say Lyanna's name. And the corpse of the prow of the ship, the great stone beast rising from the smoking tower breathing shadow fire - there is so much we will be able to identify better if we see it in the show. Hopefully it will help our theories.

Also, I wonder how they are going to do the Barristan Selmy reveal. We will obviously be able to recognize him.

[Eejit]

Back to my Quaithe statement there is something there that really could mean that Aegon is a fakie . . and that is Quaithe calls everyone by their real status except him

Kraken (Vic Greyjoy)

Black Flame (Moqorro)

Griffin (Connington)

Lion (Tyrion)

Mummer's (Actor's) Dragon . .

I think Quaithe has said in "DWD" what all you are hinting, that this Aegon is a fake and is a Blackfyre, that would make sense why the GC who was formed of companies and vagabounds after the failed attempts to seize the throne . . the throne is what Varys and Illyrio want, more than that they want a "Glorious Restoration" like what occurred in 1660 in England.

Unless it's Mummer's (posessive) Dragon. The dragon of the mummer, Illyrio.

Alternatively it could also be a reference to Quentyn.

[Eejit]

What i dont umderstand is why everyone thinks Quaithe is trying to help Dany. Why should she go to Asshai like Quaithe seems to want her to? Dany's goal is to win back the throne. Tyrion, Quentyn, Victarion, Aegon, eberyone Quaithe is "warning" her of is someone who is going to strengthen Danys attempt at winning the Throne. Do they have their motives? Yes. But their motives are all well known, Quiathes are not. Everyone Dany met in Qarth was trying to use Dany for something. Xaro, Pyat Pree and the Warlocks...but somehow Quaithe, because she is so mysterious and cryptic about it, seems to get a pass. People read so much into her prophecies and overlook that she is trying to influence Dany ad much as anyone else.

Dany doesn't have to visit Asshai, she's already "passed beneath the shadow" - Drogon ;)

[Ygrain]

I'm not saying whether or not I'm convinced Aegon is the real deal, but the "mummers dragon" and "cloth dragon" could both have been Quentyn Martell as well.

Only that the prophecy labels each person with a single nick, and Quentyn seemed to be “the sun’s son“, it seems odd that he should have two labels.

As I said earlier, I want to believe Aegon is real, but whether he is Illyrio's son or not, I think he stayed in Illyrio's home for 4-5 years of his life (until given to Connington). The clothes Tyrion wears in Illyrio's home belonged to a young boy, and I think that young boy was Aegon (real or fake). Why would Illyrio keep the clothes all these years unless the meant a lot to him? He could have just grown fond of Aegon after raising him from infancy, but you don't usually keep all of a little kid's clothes. I think this was meant to be a clue that Tyrion wears a young boys clothing. Illyrio had enough money to buy him clothes, but maybe that would have been suspicious.

On a side note, what age child do you guys think Tyrion would be equal to? He often comments the clothes are tight and musty, but I wonder what age kid's clothes would fit a dwarf. Five? Six? How does Tyrion measure in size to Tommen? I can't remember.

There’s no way Tyrion could fit himself in a 4-5 year old’s clothes. Little children’ bodies have totally different ratios; for one thing, they are very thin, and a kid of that age is about 1 meter tall (I happen to have one at home, so I know quite precisely), the kid would definitely have to be older than that (unless GRRM made a mistake). Tyrion has short arms and legs but his torso is closer to that of a man, or at least this is what people suffering from nanism in our world look like.

You left out the Sun's Son. That is said in the same line as the Mummer's Dragon. The Sun is Doran Martell, the son is Quentyn Martell. Mummer's is plural in the book, meaning that the Dragon she is referring to is some mummer's (Varys) dragon. Which would say to me that Aegon is a dragon, but is Varys' dragon.

“Mummer’s” is not plural, it’s possessive.

[sarah.jenice]

What i dont umderstand is why everyone thinks Quaithe is trying to help Dany. Why should she go to Asshai like Quaithe seems to want her to? Dany's goal is to win back the throne. Tyrion, Quentyn, Victarion, Aegon, eberyone Quaithe is "warning" her of is someone who is going to strengthen Danys attempt at winning the Throne. Do they have their motives? Yes. But their motives are all well known, Quiathes are not. Everyone Dany met in Qarth was trying to use Dany for something. Xaro, Pyat Pree and the Warlocks...but somehow Quaithe, because she is so mysterious and cryptic about it, seems to get a pass. People read so much into her prophecies and overlook that she is trying to influence Dany ad much as anyone else.

You bring up a really good point. We don't know if Quaithe's motives are to help Dany, but she was correct in Qarth when she told Dany to leave, but like Dany notices, her message are very cryptic and unclear. I'm rereading Clash right now, and their interaction in the middle of Clash stood out to me.

A Clash of Kings Daenerys Page 582-583

[Dany just watched the firemage climb a fire ladder and disappear]

"No trick," a woman said in the Common Tongue. Dany had not noticed Quaithe in the crowd, yet there she stood, eyes wet and shiny behind the implacable red lacquer mask. "What mean you, my lady?"

"Half a year gone, that man could scarcely wake fire from dragonglass. He had some small skill with powders and wildfire, sufficient enough to entrance a crowd while his cutpurses did their work. He could walk across hot coals and make burning roses bloom in the air, but he could no more aspire to climb the fiery ladder than a common fisherman could hope to catch a kraken in his nets."

"And now?"

"And now his powers grow, Khaleesi. And you are the cause of it."

"Me?" She laughed. "How could that be?"

The woman stepped closer and lay two fingers on Dany's wrist. "You are the Mother of Dragons, are you not?"

"She is, and no spawn of shadows may touch her." Jhogo brushed Quaithe's fingers away with the handle of his whip.

The woman took a step backward. "You must leave this city soon, Daenerys Targaryen, or you will never be permitted to leave it at all."

Dany's wrist still tingled where Quaithe had touched her. "Where would you have me go?" she asked.

"To go north, you must journey south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward you must go back, and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow."

Asshai. Dany thought. She would have me go to Asshai. "Will the Asshai'i give me an army?" she demanded. "Will there be gold for me in Asshai? Will there be ships? What is there in Asshai that I will not find in Qarth?"

"Truth," said the woman in the mask.

I do think Quaithe's message to Dany mirrors Pyat Pree's a little bit, and we know he didn't really want to help. Pyat Pree says she will get wisdom in the House of the Undying and Quaithe says she will get truth. But what truth will she get? That dragons are the only way to have magic in the world? That those who work magic will fight to get control of them or keep them alive? That there are still dragons in Ashaai (Bran's vision in AGoT where he looks east and sees dragons stirring in the sunrise)?

I've always thought that if she goes east, she will be able to get to the west side of Westeros - passing under the shadow gets you to the west. People thought you fell off the edge of our world so it makes sense that people would avoid going to "the shadow."

Oh, and sorry to get off topic!

[sarah.jenice]

There’s no way Tyrion could fit himself in a 4-5 year old’s clothes. Little children’ bodies have totally different ratios; for one thing, they are very thin, and a kid of that age is about 1 meter tall (I happen to have one at home, so I know quite precisely), the kid would definitely have to be older than that (unless GRRM made a mistake). Tyrion has short arms and legs but his torso is closer to that of a man, or at least this is what people suffering from nanism in our world look like.

Well he says he is in a kid's clothes. What age do you think? I haven't seen very many dwarfs in the real world to get a good idea of their size. And he does say the clothes are tight so they fit his arms and legs but not his torso. Does Illyrio mention having a son? Where do you think the musty boy's clothes came from if not YG/Aegon?

[Nymphetamine]

Another interesting tidbit. Some compare Aegon to the real life Perkin Warbeck however this is wrong imo. Aegon is most likely Henry VII. Henry's claim to the English throne was from a woman, and from an illegitimate - legitimized line. If Aegon is a Blackfyre he fits this perfectly.

[dtones520]

You bring up a really good point. We don't know if Quaithe's motives are to help Dany, but she was correct in Qarth when she told Dany to leave, but like Dany notices, her message are very cryptic and unclear. I'm rereading Clash right now, and their interaction in the middle of Clash stood out to me.

A Clash of Kings Daenerys Page 582-583

[Dany just watched the firemage climb a fire ladder and disappear]

"No trick," a woman said in the Common Tongue. Dany had not noticed Quaithe in the crowd, yet there she stood, eyes wet and shiny behind the implacable red lacquer mask. "What mean you, my lady?"

"Half a year gone, that man could scarcely wake fire from dragonglass. He had some small skill with powders and wildfire, sufficient enough to entrance a crowd while his cutpurses did their work. He could walk across hot coals and make burning roses bloom in the air, but he could no more aspire to climb the fiery ladder than a common fisherman could hope to catch a kraken in his nets."

"And now?"

"And now his powers grow, Khaleesi. And you are the cause of it."

"Me?" She laughed. "How could that be?"

The woman stepped closer and lay two fingers on Dany's wrist. "You are the Mother of Dragons, are you not?"

"She is, and no spawn of shadows may touch her." Jhogo brushed Quaithe's fingers away with the handle of his whip.

The woman took a step backward. "You must leave this city soon, Daenerys Targaryen, or you will never be permitted to leave it at all."

Dany's wrist still tingled where Quaithe had touched her. "Where would you have me go?" she asked.

"To go north, you must journey south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward you must go back, and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow."

Asshai. Dany thought. She would have me go to Asshai. "Will the Asshai'i give me an army?" she demanded. "Will there be gold for me in Asshai? Will there be ships? What is there in Asshai that I will not find in Qarth?"

"Truth," said the woman in the mask.

I do think Quaithe's message to Dany mirrors Pyat Pree's a little bit, and we know he didn't really want to help. Pyat Pree says she will get wisdom in the House of the Undying and Quaithe says she will get truth. But what truth will she get? That dragons are the only way to have magic in the world? That those who work magic will fight to get control of them or keep them alive? That there are still dragons in Ashaai (Bran's vision in AGoT where he looks east and sees dragons stirring in the sunrise)?

I've always thought that if she goes east, she will be able to get to the west side of Westeros - passing under the shadow gets you to the west. People thought you fell off the edge of our world so it makes sense that people would avoid going to "the shadow."

Oh, and sorry to get off topic!

I dont think you are off topic at all, I think you are completely on topic. All of this discussion of Aegon being fake stems from Quiathes words to Dany. Everyone in this story has motives and is playing their "game of thrones." What is Quaithes motive? Why is she trying to push Dany away from people who, for all we know, are going to help her win the throne.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

I dont think you are off topic at all, I think you are completely on topic. All of this discussion of Aegon being fake stems from Quiathes words to Dany. Everyone in this story has motives and is playing their "game of thrones." What is Quaithes motive? Why is she trying to push Dany away from people who, for all we know, are going to help her win the throne.

This is not true. There are plenty of other reason to believe Aegon is fake that do not depend on anything Quaithe said- or the vision in the House of the Undying. As I see it, Aegon being fake is the only way to make sense of the Varys' and Illyrio's actions, as well as the Golden Company breaking a contract for the first time in its history.

[Lord Varys]

Aegon is interesting in both cases. As Aegon VI Targaryen he could end up becoming another false Azor Ahai/savior figure. Not just the ideal king, but also the man who is (supposedly) destined to fight the War for the Dawn. After all, this could have been the very reason why Varys saved him. He would have known about Rhaegar's final belief that not he himself but Aegon is supposed to be the Prince that was promised.

Making him the ideal king and sitting him on the Iron Throne might merely be the first step.

The whole point why Mel tries to make Stannis king is to put her Azor Ahai into a position where he can fight his war. And it seems that Rhaegar, too, wanted to father another child - another royal prince or princess - to provide his alleged savior with another companion to help him fulfill his destiny.

If Aegon was a Blackfyre, well, that would only add another conspiracy layer to the whole game, but it would not be that interesting or tragic, I guess. Varys, Illyrio or Serra might have Targaryen and/or Blackfyre descendants but at least Varys is, in my opinion, not motivated by dynastic thinking.

Aegon being the real deal, Rhaegar's son, but not the promised savior could, in my opinion, add much more tragedy to the whole thing. We have already have had three pretenders who think their claim is legitimate (Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella), we don't need yet another king who is wrong about his heritage.

If Dany only reason to challenge Aegon's claim is going to be that fact that he returned to late to Westeros, things would really become interesting. If Aegon was fake, everybody's sympathies would be on Dany's side, and that would be cheap in my opinion.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This is not true. There are plenty of other reason to believe Aegon is fake that do not depend on anything Quaithe said- or the vision in the House of the Undying. As I see it, Aegon being fake is the only way to make sense of the Varys' and Illyrio's actions, as well as the Golden Company breaking a contract for the first time in its history.

Thank you. The way some people talk, you'd think that the mummer's dragon prophecy is the only evidence that he's fake and that's not true, as several of us have argued on here.

Another interesting tidbit. Some compare Aegon to the real life Perkin Warbeck however this is wrong imo. Aegon is most likely Henry VII. Henry's claim to the English throne was from a woman, and from an illegitimate - legitimized line. If Aegon is a Blackfyre he fits this perfectly.

He also fits Perkin Warbeck perfectly if he shows up claiming to be a thought-murdered prince, so what's your point?

When Henry VII escaped into exile, everyone knew where he was. He set up a rival court on the continent and made no secret to hide his identity or his intention to return to England. He did not fall off the face of the earth and then randomly reappear years after the fact. He was also never thought to be dead/murdered when he wasn't. He escaped to the continent when the Lancasters finally lost power and everyone knew it. Apart from the legitimized-bastard part (which, in my opinion, pales against the other comparisons), the Henry VII figure in this story is actually Dany.

Here's a tidbit that I'd like to see Aegon-is-real proponents discuss:

In A Feast For Crows — which, remember, was originally combined with material from A Dance With Dragons before Martin split them — Brienne learns about an inn in the Riverlands that had had a black dragon hanging outside of it. A black dragon was the Blackfyre sigil. During the Blackfyre rebellion, Targ loyalists tore the sign down and tossed it in the river. Later it washed ashore on the Quiet Isle, only now it had been rusted red. The Targ sigil is a red dragon. The black dragon has returned "disguised" as a red dragon. Or, to put a finer point on it, the Blackfyres were tossed out and have "washed ashore" disguised as true Targs.

So what do you make of this? Red herring, easter egg hinting at the truth or a big fat coincidental nothing?

[Eejit]

I've discussed that metal dragon in another thread, it is interesting. Could be any of the above, it isn't particularly strong evidence in itself.

I don't discount Aegon being fake entirely but it's hardly an open and shut case.

As I see it, Aegon being fake is the only way to make sense of the Varys' and Illyrio's actions, as well as the Golden Company breaking a contract for the first time in its history.

I made a thread offering another explanation for their actions. The Golden Company are exiles, supporting a rival claimant to the throne is one of their traditions - they want 'their' lands and titles back. That's their motive rather than any remaining specific loyalty to the Blackfyres.

[sarah.jenice]

I dont think you are off topic at all, I think you are completely on topic. All of this discussion of Aegon being fake stems from Quiathes words to Dany. Everyone in this story has motives and is playing their "game of thrones." What is Quaithes motive? Why is she trying to push Dany away from people who, for all we know, are going to help her win the throne.

I agree that Quaithe's motive is what we need to know. In some ways, the people coming to Dany were trying to help her win the throne, but they were all in it for themselves, too. Victorian and Euron want to marry her (forcibly if necessary) and bind themselves to her dragons so they would have control over them. And of all of the suitors that she warns of, she just says to trust none of them, which I think is good advice. She could maybe make an alliance with some of them, but I think she needs to stay careful with whom she trusts. It is only of the perfumed senechal that she is told to beware.

[sarah.jenice]

Thank you. The way some people talk, you'd think that the mummer's dragon prophecy is the only evidence that he's fake and that's not true, as several of us have argued on here.

Here's a tidbit that I'd like to see Aegon-is-real proponents discuss:

In A Feast For Crows — which, remember, was originally combined with material from A Dance With Dragons before Martin split them — Brienne learns about an inn in the Riverlands that had had a black dragon hanging outside of it. A black dragon was the Blackfyre sigil. During the Blackfyre rebellion, Targ loyalists tore the sign down and tossed it in the river. Later it washed ashore on the Quiet Isle, only now it had been rusted red. The Targ sigil is a red dragon. The black dragon has returned "disguised" as a red dragon. Or, to put a finer point on it, the Blackfyres were tossed out and have "washed ashore" disguised as true Targs.

So what do you make of this? Red herring, easter egg hinting at the truth or a big fat coincidental nothing?

Apple Martini, I always read your posts and really enjoy your views. Do you watch the show?

What are your thoughts on how the visions will be handled if you do watch it?

[OnionAhaiReborn]

I've discussed that metal dragon in another thread, it is interesting. Could be any of the above, it isn't particularly strong evidence in itself.

I don't discount Aegon being fake entirely but it's hardly an open and shut case.

I made a thread offering another explanation for their actions. The Golden Company are exiles, supporting a rival claimant to the throne is one of their traditions - they want 'their' lands and titles back. That's their motive rather than any remaining specific loyalty to the Blackfyres.

It's fine if we disagree about this stuff, I just wanted to point out that Quaithe's prophecy/House of the Undying is not why I think Aegon is fake. Prophecy doesn't convince me, but the other stuff really does convince me. This is one of the few theories that I am firmly convinced on, and it doesn't depend on prophecy at all for me.

[sarah.jenice]

Apple Martini, I always read your posts and really enjoy your views. Do you watch the show?

What are your thoughts on how the visions will be handled if you do watch it?

Oh, and I think that is very interesting story and didn't catch its significance until seeing it on the boards. It will be a good parallel if he is a pretender.

[Nymphetamine]

I dont think you are off topic at all, I think you are completely on topic. All of this discussion of Aegon being fake stems from Quiathes words to Dany. Everyone in this story has motives and is playing their "game of thrones." What is Quaithes motive? Why is she trying to push Dany away from people who, for all we know, are going to help her win the throne.

This isn't true. There is plenty of evidence that has nothing to do with prophecy. In fact, the prophecies are some of the weaker evidence IMO because of how Martin has shown that prophecies can be broken or not be true at all.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I've discussed that metal dragon in another thread, it is interesting. Could be any of the above, it isn't particularly strong evidence in itself.

Did I say it was the only evidence? I don't believe I did. No, it's not strong evidence on its own, but when you add it to all of the other evidence — whether the evidence is a prophecy or circumstantial or just basic logic — it starts looking more and more like an easter egg.

Apple Martini, I always read your posts and really enjoy your views. Do you watch the show?

What are your thoughts on how the visions will be handled if you do watch it?

Thanks. :)

I do watch the show, yeah. I honestly don't know how they'll handle the visions, whether they'll be "hazy" or life-like or something else. It'll be interesting to see.