Aegon

[Lord Varys]

Varys has no reason to keep the truth from his little birds. He owns them. And they have no tongues, so they can't betray him, even if they wanted to. But more so, we have to assume that Varys (and Littlefinger) of all people need people they can trust completely. To do the things they do they need to rely on people. Littlefinger has Kettleblack and Lothor Brune, and Varys has (at least) his little birds.They know a lot of secrets. They are the people who tell Varys everything he knows. So I don't believe he would feel the need to keep things secret from them. Especially since they have to be in on the whole Aegon plot for years. If Varys did not trust them, he would most likely not use them to kill people, nor would he let them in on stuff that could very well have gotten him killed months/weeks/days earlier. Had any of his birds went to Kevan/Cersei/Tywin and talked to him about Varys's lair, and Aegon, he would have lost his head.

Whatever endgame Varys is playing, I'm sure his birds knew everything about it.

On Aegon: We should not make this whole discussion a Blackfyre vs. Targaryen discussion. It's just as likely that Aegon turns out to be not related to both houses (if Varys wanted to create the ideal king/restart a Targaryen looking dynasty, the bright thing would be to use a valyrian-looking boy with no incest-damaged genes), or it could be even more complicated. Meaning that Aegon might be descended from an offshoot branch of Houses Targaryen and Blackfyre (say, through Egg's mysterious third son who was first mentioned in ADwD). It is strongly indicated that Illyrio holds sway over the Golden Company, but just because Varys/Illyrio/Serra might be related to the Blackfyres, we can't know for sure that they and their cause are not used the same way Varys and Illyrio used the Targaryens.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

^ The reason I hone in on the Blackfyre angle is:

1. The dropped clues about the Blackfyre Rebellion and the Golden Company's purpose.

2. The dragon sign on the Quiet Isle.

[Dragonfish]

Varys has no reason to keep the truth from his little birds. He owns them.

I don't think a master schemer like Varys would ever assume he can trust anyone under him. Remember what Littlefinger said to Ned when he asked him if there was someone in his employ he could trust?

And they have no tongues, so they can't betray him, even if they wanted to.

Tell that to Wex (who had to learn to write before he could reveal any info, unlike the little birds, who already know how to write).

But more so, we have to assume that Varys (and Littlefinger) of all people need people they can trust completely. To do the things they do they need to rely on people. Littlefinger has Kettleblack and Lothor Brune, and Varys has (at least) his little birds.

Do you really think Littlefinger reveals his deepest secrets to Kettleblack and Brune?

Certainly Varys and Littlefinger need people they can trust up to a point, but that does not mean they trust them completely.

[Blonde Ygritte]

I believe that Aegon is the real deal. Although we all know that in GRRM's world, prophesy can be false or more often misinterpreted, yet I place some significance in the passage in ACofK when Danerys walks through the House of the Undying. She sees a room with a Targaryen father, mother and newborn. He names the infant Aegon, and although there have been a number of Aegons, we know that the father is Rhaegar because his harp is mentioned. The mother (presumably Elia) asks if he will write a song for the baby, and he replies that the baby already has a song, for "his is the song of Ice and Fire." This feels to me like a big red arrow pointing at Aegon and telling us that the entire Song of Ice and Fire series is about Aegon! Throughout the series, GRRM mentions repeatedly that a son inherits before an uncle. So if this young man truly is Aegon, he is the true heir to the Iron Throne, not Danerys. He has also been trained for the job in a way that she has not. I have no basis for this next theory, but I believe that Quentin died in the foolish way he did, so that we will have doubts when the time comes for Aegon to try to ride a dragon -- and succeed. In Danerys' vision described above, Rhaegar turns and looks (at her?) and says that there must be another, because the dragon has 3 heads.

[The guy from the Vale]

Who's to say that Rhaegar is actually right? He believed himself to be tPtwP before he thought Aegon was it, so perhaps he changed his mind later on, again? Also, there's the other son of Rhaegar who's still alive and kicking, whose parents actually ARE ice and fire in some sense... so I don't see that as an actual argument.

On the other hand, there's lots of evidence that yes, Aegon is fake. As you're mentioning the House of the Undying - who do you think is the mummer's dragon? Or what about the black dragon's head that rusted and turned up at the Quiet Isle?

Not even mentioning Illyrio's deceased Targaryen-looking wife who was conspicuously born under very similar circumstances as Varys, and the children's clothes in Mopatis' manse; the baby-switch that only makes sense in hindsight; and the involvement of the Golden Company, a sellsword group who were founded to seat a Blackfyre on the Iron throne and now fight for Aegon because of a 'contract writ in blood'.

Really, all things considered, I'd say Aegon being fake is the second best established fan theory, right after R+L=J .

[YUNG LYANNA]

I whole-heartedly subscribe to the theory that Aegon is a Blackfyre, which in my opinion doesn't make him any less a Targaryen than one who came from the true-born line, (a rose by any other name would smell as sweet) & would make sense why Dany was told not to trust the "mummer's dragon" - with mummer's being possessive. He is a dragon, just not the right color. That being said, I actually like Aegon so far & I don't necessarily think that him not being a "true" Targ would exclude him from having a dragon friend, if that is indeed where the "three headed dragon" thing is headed.

Now that I've read the Tales of Dunk & Egg, I understand the whole Blackfyre rebellion better and I don't think the characters and the history that were presented in those stories was purely for entertainment value, but to give insight on what is currently going on in the series. I think the biggest selling point on Aegon being a Blackfyre is the allegiance of the Golden Company - point blank. I'm not sure which character specified this, or if several did, but it was said that the GC would not return to Westeros for any other reason than to seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne.

This, plus the fact that Jon Connington was completely out of the loop in regard's to the original agreement that was made, and that all the GC leadership already knew who Aegon "really" is, but would still fight for him, is interesting. Why would they be cool supporting a true-born Targ after being exiled and living their lives waiting for someone who they could consider their rightful monarch?

Connington, however, knows the history of the GC too & he doesn't even question why they would support a son of Rhaegar. Connington seems suspicious & weary of most people but for some reason this thought doesn't even cross his mind. I think that's called DENIAL. I don't think Connington or Aegon are aware of his true lineage, I believe they were simply told he was Rhaegar's son & they believed it without question because, why wouldn't they? Connington seems to be plagued by guilt over what happened at Duskendale & he's thirsty for a chance to redeem himself & honor his love for Rhaegar that I don't think it would be too hard to convince him that a silver hair, purple-eyed boy was Rhaegar's son. He believes it because he wants to believe it, he really doesn't have much proof. No one does.

I don't buy the baby-switching story. It's worked in the books before, but fool me twice - y'know? How did Vary's have the foresight to switch babies but not to get Elia & Rhaenys out of the castle? He knows all the secret passageways, after all. And if they baby switch was done at the very last minute, it still doesn't make sense to me that he would leave the mother & sister behind to be brutally raped & murdered.

PLUS! I have to concede to Apple Martini when she says to question things that are explicitly stated, because that is usually when GRRM sneaks up on us with his brilliantly deceptive writing!

[James Arryn]

Why would they be cool supporting a true-born Targ after being exiled and living their lives waiting for someone who they could consider their rightful monarch?

I get that point, and it is persuasive, but on the other hand there might be lack of alternatives.

IE, yes, they wanted to install a Blackfyre...back when that stood in opposition to the status quo.

But if the status quo changes, so too can the nature of one's opposition to it.

And, more, there may not be any viable Blackfyre candidates, so returning a Targ who is their man would probably still rank higher than going on forever as a landless and homeless entity;

And, lastly, there's the whole idea of a double bluff. We've considered Aegon as real Targ, or Aegon as BF the GC are fooling people into thinking is a Targ.

But I can almost argue that the latter makes less sense than fooling the GC that a Targ is a BF.

Because most people who would rise for a Targ would rise for a BF in contrast with the Baratheon/Lannister rule. Whereas, as you suggest, its possible that the BF thing is a deal breaker with the GC.

So maybe someone's fooling them?

[YUNG LYANNA]

I get that point, and it is persuasive, but on the other hand there might be lack of alternatives.

IE, yes, they wanted to install a Blackfyre...back when that stood in opposition to the status quo.

But if the status quo changes, so too can the nature of one's opposition to it.

And, more, there may not be any viable Blackfyre candidates, so returning a Targ who is their man would probably still rank higher than going on forever as a landless and homeless entity;

I do think that the GC could have changed their primary objective since they were first founded. After a long exile, any excuse to go home would probably sound good to them. My problem with this idea is I don't recall anything suggesting that the Blackfyre line died out. I feel like I'm walking on eggshells with that though, since so many have a contrary opinion, so if anyone has evidence that hints at that, please share!

And, lastly, there's the whole idea of a double bluff. We've considered Aegon as real Targ, or Aegon as BF the GC are fooling people into thinking is a Targ.

But I can almost argue that the latter makes less sense than fooling the GC that a Targ is a BF.

Because most people who would rise for a Targ would rise for a BF in contrast with the Baratheon/Lannister rule. Whereas, as you suggest, its possible that the BF thing is a deal breaker with the GC.

So maybe someone's fooling them?

Also a possibility! But... if everyone in the GC is being fooled into believing Aegon is a BF, but Connington knows the "truth" that he is a true Targaryan, wouldn't Illyrio or someone have been like, "Yo JC, we could only get the GC on our side by posing Aegon as a Blackfyre, so don't spill the beans. Don't tell them he is actually Rhaegar's son & actually a Blackfyre pretender-pretender!" That seems extra confusing for no reason.

But yeah, I'm basing all of this on the idea that the GC would ONLY support a Blackfyre, but like you said - at this point in the game that might not necessarily be a deal-breaker for them. But, like someone wrote above, the GC is notorious for honoring their agreements - why should that change now? If a BF heir was no longer viable, why didn't they support Daenerys when they knew Meereen was under siege & whatnot? It doesn't make sense to me, that they would support one Targaryen over another solely based on a contract made by a dead commander which basically undermines their founding principle, unless Aegon was a BF. If the GC was to break a contract for a Targaryen, it would have been more beneficial to join Team Dany, considering she already had an army & dragons & had conquered two cities, rather than a boy with nothing more than an unproven Targaryan lineage brought to them by a Master of Whisperers.

[Eejit]

Well, it's disputable if he's actually lying or not (notice that Varys never claims Aegon is Rhaegar's son). But even if he is, there are still a couple explanations:

1) Varys wants to keep the truth from his little birds.

2) Varys is following Littlefinger's advice by upholding the lie even when he has no reason not to.

Doesn't matter whether he's lying or misleading, in effect it's the same thing.

1 and 2 would both be better satisfied by not speaking to the dying man in the first place. There was no social situation forcing Varys to speak and thus need to lie.

[Random person in the North]

Surely Varys and Illyrio are using Connington in the way that Roose Bolton used Theon? Roose needed Theon so the realm would accept fake Arya, Illyrio needs Connington so that the realm will accept fake Aegon.

The only difference is that Varys and Illyrio are cleverer because they've made Connington believe the lie - not merely defend it - and there is nothing more dangerous than a righteous man who believes in a righteous cause.

Of course if they can get Danny to buy the lie too and endorse it then his legitimacy would be irrelevant.

I'm pretty convinced that Aegon is fake and we'll be given more clues and hints but I'm not sure GRRM will ever give us closure on it in the way I'm not sure he'll give us full closure on Jon. That power is an illusion is one of the main themes of the series.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

1 and 2 would both be better satisfied by not speaking to the dying man in the first place. There was no social situation forcing Varys to speak and thus need to lie.

Littlefinger told Sansa about keeping up a lie even when you have no need to, to keep it feeling natural. I see no reason why Varys can't be doing the same thing.

If Varys' words to Kevan is the strongest argument the "Aegon is real" camp has, that's a problem.

[the Scorpion Knight]

I'm pretty convinced that Aegon is fake and we'll be given more clues and hints..

there's a problem the clues IMO point to the oppsite direction

[James Arryn]

Ah, damnit!

I think you guys have halfway convinced me he's a fake.

Mostly because:

A) I can now imagine how heartbreaking the scene would be when Jon Con finds out he's been duped, and no atonement is possible.

B ) I can now imagine GRRM imagining A.

C) I can now not imagine GRRM imagining A without going for it.

Damnit.

[Faint]

I’m more persuaded that Varys is the Blackfyre and Aegon is not. Moqorro spoke of a fake dragon, not a different kind of dragon.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Littlefinger told Sansa about keeping up a lie even when you have no need to, to keep it feeling natural. I see no reason why Varys can't be doing the same thing.

If Varys' words to Kevan is the strongest argument the "Aegon is real" camp has, that's a problem.

I think he told kevan the truth

because you see him dropping his mask and see the true varys ( after the no of varys the voice of him goes deeper)

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

there's a problem the clues IMO point to the oppsite direction

Other than a few people's word, what is this evidence you speak of?

I think he told kevan the truth

because you see him dropping his mask and see the true varys ( after the no of varys the voice of him goes deeper)

Except that at least a few lies are still blatantly there — Aegon doesn't know what it's like to be hunted (who the hell's out hunting him when they all think he's dead?), nor is he the perfect dutiful child Varys describes, but rather a petulant brat.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Other than a few people's word, what is this evidence you speak of?

his actions (he Listened to and THOUGHT over tyrions advice, something other people don't even bother to do, he makes his OWN oppinion over people, his first white cloakactually qualifies as a bodyguard)

he shows more brains than other nobles of his agegroup (loras tyrell, Robb stark to mention)

[Dragonfish]

his actions (he Listened to and THOUGHT over tyrions advice, something other people don't even bother to do, he makes his OWN oppinion over people, his first white cloakactually qualifies as a bodyguard)

he shows more brains than other nobles of his agegroup (loras tyrell, Robb stark to mention)

...Uh...what? How does any of this support the notion that he's Rhaegar and Elia's son?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

his actions (he Listened to and THOUGHT over tyrions advice, something other people don't even bother to do, he makes his OWN oppinion over people, his first white cloakactually qualifies as a bodyguard)

he shows more brains than other nobles of his agegroup (loras tyrell, Robb stark to mention)

That ... is not actually proof.

[hombay]

his actions (he Listened to and THOUGHT over tyrions advice, something other people don't even bother to do, he makes his OWN oppinion over people, his first white cloakactually qualifies as a bodyguard)

he shows more brains than other nobles of his agegroup (loras tyrell, Robb stark to mention)

His first white cloak was a very poor choice, though.