THE BASTARD'S LETTER

[Men in their cups say...]

I think the letter was dictated and sealed by Ramsay. He is growing into his role as heir to the Warden of the North. Roose told him to be more discreet, so no blood, no skin. Ramsay sealed it himself, clumsily, unlike Roose. I like the theory that Wyman fakes victory and Brings Stannis' sword back. Maybe Ramsay even sends it from the field, I don't know. I just think Ramsay wrote it. The other ideas out there have some cool evidence. We won't know for sure until the next book is out. sigh.....

[Sam Huxley]

To me is Mance. He wants to be free.

How would Mance be able to get to ravens, and then know which of the ravens were ones that could fly to Castle Black? Getting to the ravens would be difficult because there are so many soldiers in Winterfell even without Manderly and Frey men; so why would guards let Mance send a letter off? Can he even read, he may have been raised on the wall, but who's to say that he was taught to read, I can't remember any passage that has mentioned him reading or writing before.

I like the theory that Wyman fakes victory and Brings Stannis' sword back.

How could Stannis trust Wyman, he has already been betrayed by the Karstark's and it hasn't been mentioned that Stannis has received any word from Davos about the Manderly's planning on betraying the Bolton's. So I doubt they could have his sword unless they actually have rode out and beaten him...

[pestor]

How would Mance be able to get to ravens, and then know which of the ravens were ones that could fly to Castle Black? Getting to the ravens would be difficult because there are so many soldiers in Winterfell even without Manderly and Frey men; so why would guards let Mance send a letter off? Can he even read, he may have been raised on the wall, but who's to say that he was taught to read, I can't remember any passage that has mentioned him reading or writing before.

How could Stannis trust Wyman, he has already been betrayed by the Karstark's and it hasn't been mentioned that Stannis has received any word from Davos about the Manderly's planning on betraying the Bolton's. So I doubt they could have his sword unless they actually have rode out and beaten him...

IMO I don't think it would of been that hard fot Mance to sneak up to the rookery. Especially with the commotion from the soilders. Also I agree that we don't know if he can read or write. Or even the language of the ravens. But then ago theres alot we dont know about him and can speculate about.

About Stannis trusting Manderly, why wouldn't he? If he comes, swears his fealty and the power of his house. All the while explaining why he has waited to declare for Stannis. An telling someone you plan on deciving someone else is best kept for riders in the night not ravens on the chance it can be killed or downed. Plus Davos was sent on a mission to get whats thought to be the on of if not the last Stark. With all that i don't think Stannis would turn away a way for him to defeat the Boltons and take Winterfell.

[Gannicus]

Yeah if Manderly comes to Stannis and tells him what's going on he'll welcome him with open arms. The first stage of his conquest of Westeros is winning back the north, winning the northern lords loyalty, and if Lord too Fat to Sit a Horse is ready to swear to him Stannis would gladly have his swords.

I'm just worried we're looking at the whole situation with hopeful optimism. Maybe Stannis was defeated in 7 days of battle. But If he has lost the battle of Winterfell I'm going to be super bummed.

[Sam Huxley]

But, if you were Stannis and you've already been betrayed by the Karstark's, why would you trust Wyman when he comes to him; it could be yet another Roose Bolton plan.. He'd have to prove his loyalty in some way before Stannis would accept him, as he's surely going to be more wary about any of the Northern lords coming over to his side now after the Karstark issue

[wighty]

But, if you were Stannis and you've already been betrayed by the Karstark's, why would you trust Wyman when he comes to him; it could be yet another Roose Bolton plan.. He'd have to prove his loyalty in some way before Stannis would accept him, as he's surely going to be more wary about any of the Northern lords coming over to his side now after the Karstark issue

Taking his sword back to Winterfell, and defeating the Bolton alliance from insides seems like a pretty good way to prove loyalty

[Tini]

But, if you were Stannis and you've already been betrayed by the Karstark's, why would you trust Wyman when he comes to him; it could be yet another Roose Bolton plan.. He'd have to prove his loyalty in some way before Stannis would accept him, as he's surely going to be more wary about any of the Northern lords coming over to his side now after the Karstark issue

Taking his sword back to Winterfell, and defeating the Bolton alliance from insides seems like a pretty good way to prove loyalty

Stannis is not in a position to turn down allies, even if he is not sure of their allegiance. So he will work with them even if he does not trust them.

As for trusting Wyman Manderly, Lord Manderly is currently wounded back at Winterfell while his men are marching with Bolton and Frey forces toward Stannis' host. If they turn on the Boltons and the Freys (as I think they will), that will send a clear message of support to Stannis. It will also place Lord Manderly in danger because the fat old man can't run away as Theon has done.

Stannis won't have time to play loyalty games. He must move swiftly if he wants to take advantage of Manderly and his men inside WInterfell. The opportunity will be gone once Ramsay and Roose Bolton find out how Manderly betrayed them. I think Stannis will send Manderly's men to Winterfell to report his "defeat", giving them his sword as proof.

If Manderly survives and meets Stannis, he can commit to Stannis' cause by giving him a fleet and an army as proof of his good intentions. As he promised Davos. Stannis might still not trust him but he would certainly value the alliance.

[bemused]

Of course , Stannis has Theon ( and I don't think he will kill him ). Theon knows that Manderly's loyalty to Roose is suspect and this could , to a degree , influence Stannis' willigness to trust any Manderly show of support.

[WakeTheDragon]

I figured Mance was in Winterfell when Theon hears the singer singing "The Dornishmen's Wife"

[The Sunset King]

Ramsay's motive for writing such a letter would be very simple: he is sitting in Winterfell, possibly slowly losing sanity, and in a panic about the military situation and the escape of the fake Arya. It is a last desperate gamble in which he hopes Jon will oblige by sending forth the enumerated individuals. The fact that the letter exited Winterfell at all raises suspicions that Roose has perished and Ramsay is trying to install himself in his father's place. Easy for Stannis and the northerners to deal with such an incompetent threat.

Roose technically could have written it but he is much less likely to believe that there would be the slightest chance that Jon would comply. He also would be less keen on letting the knowledge of the fake Arya's escape become well known throughout the North (the letter could cause that). Instead, Roose most likely would place his hope in Winterfell's walls while trying to find out what is going on with Stannis.

As for the truth value of the letter's claims, the vast majority is false probably. The only parts which might be true would pertain to Mance and the spearwives. Capturing some of the spearwives would be the most likely source of information for the Boltons. The boastful claims made about various alleged successes are meant to reinforce the imaginary position of dominance which the author wishes to project.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Ramsay's motive for writing such a letter would be very simple: he is sitting in Winterfell, possibly slowly losing sanity, and in a panic about the military situation and the escape of the fake Arya. It is a last desperate gamble in which he hopes Jon will oblige by sending forth the enumerated individuals. The fact that the letter exited Winterfell at all raises suspicions that Roose has perished and Ramsay is trying to install himself in his father's place. Easy for Stannis and the northerners to deal with such an incompetent threat.

Roose technically could have written it but he is much less likely to believe that there would be the slightest chance that Jon would comply. He also would be less keen on letting the knowledge of the fake Arya's escape become well known throughout the North (the letter could cause that). Instead, Roose most likely would place his hope in Winterfell's walls while trying to find out what is going on with Stannis.

As for the truth value of the letter's claims, the vast majority is false probably. The only parts which might be true would pertain to Mance and the spearwives. Capturing some of the spearwives would be the most likely source of information for the Boltons. The boastful claims made about various alleged successes are meant to reinforce the imaginary position of dominance which the author wishes to project.

I agree with most of this, but disagree regarding Roose. Roose showed a good grasp of the political situation and is hyper-aware of the importance of Arya in the Bolton's claim. He knows that Arya is what's staying the northmen's hand in raising against him, and he also knows Arya is fake. Theon seems to think that at least some of the northmen know she is fake as well, but they are in no position to act. BUT, if Arya escapes (which she has) and were to run to the Wall, who has both the (at least obstensibly) the political neutrality AND the credibility to proclaim her fake as both her brother and the last son of Ned Stark? Jon Snow. If he reveals Arya as fake, what northerner is NOT going to believe him? What northerner is NOT going to abandon Bolton? The pink letter says Roose all the way to me. After all, Jon didn't act when his father was executed, Robb called the banners, all three brothers were treacherously and brutally murdered, or when his sisters were married off to a Lannister and sociopath, respectively. Why WOULDN'T Roose conclude that Jon could be silenced with threats, blackmail and deceit?

[The Sunset King]

That is an interesting point. The question is whether Roose believes the chance of her getting to the Wall are great enough to chance the dangers that could arise from sending the letter.

The escape of the fake Arya definitely would eventually be fatal to the Bolton cause, however, even if Jon did not react militantly, sending him such a letter would risk having Jon spread the information across the North. It would be easier to see Roose doing this course of action if he believed that Stannis's host was mostly or totally decimated. If Stannis's force is intact when the letter is delivered, there is a risk that Jon would notify key Northern lords about its contents, thus aiding Stannis's cause by potentially causing desertions and defections.

Much would depend on what Roose thought was going to happen with the battle for Winterfell and what options remained for addressing the fake Arya problem.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

I agree with most of this, but disagree regarding Roose. Roose showed a good grasp of the political situation and is hyper-aware of the importance of Arya in the Bolton's claim. He knows that Arya is what's staying the northmen's hand in raising against him, and he also knows Arya is fake. Theon seems to think that at least some of the northmen know she is fake as well, but they are in no position to act. BUT, if Arya escapes (which she has) and were to run to the Wall, who has both the (at least obstensibly) the political neutrality AND the credibility to proclaim her fake as both her brother and the last son of Ned Stark? Jon Snow. If he reveals Arya as fake, what northerner is NOT going to believe him? What northerner is NOT going to abandon Bolton? The pink letter says Roose all the way to me. After all, Jon didn't act when his father was executed, Robb called the banners, all three brothers were treacherously and brutally murdered, or when his sisters were married off to a Lannister and sociopath, respectively. Why WOULDN'T Roose conclude that Jon could be silenced with threats, blackmail and deceit?

You are correct that Jon has not acted in response to attacks on his family. Why, then, would Roose try to antagonize him unnecessarily? Why would Roose WANT Jon to come down from the Wall? How does that help him? Roose seems a more cautious man then that.

[VaramyrSixchins]

That is an interesting point. The question is whether Roose believes the chance of her getting to the Wall are great enough to chance the dangers that could arise from sending the letter.

The escape of the fake Arya definitely would eventually be fatal to the Bolton cause, however, even if Jon did not react militantly, sending him such a letter would risk having Jon spread the information across the North. It would be easier to see Roose doing this course of action if he believed that Stannis's host was mostly or totally decimated. If Stannis's force is intact when the letter is delivered, there is a risk that Jon would notify key Northern lords about its contents, thus aiding Stannis's cause by potentially causing desertions and defections.

Much would depend on what Roose thought was going to happen with the battle for Winterfell and what options remained for addressing the fake Arya problem.

Totally agree, and what I think will be revealed is that through some form of conspiracy, the Boltons received the misinformation about Stannis's defeat. They believe Stannis dead. The failure to recover Arya was still a threat, though, because even with Stannis defeated, why would the north accept the Bolton claim? The Lannisters are spent and no threat because of distance and weather, what's to stop northern civil war over a fake Arya? Why wouldn't the north rally around a recovered Rickon or an openly acknowledged bastard of The Ned, should he choose to leave the Watch?

From Roose's POV, Jon is and always will be a threat to reveal their deception, or worse do so and then take up the Stark mantle. I don't think Ramsay, of the "I wanna pair of Dustin boots" school of politics, cares too much, since he sent Jon a wedding invite, but Roose certainly does.

You are correct that Jon has not acted in response to attacks on his family. Why, then, would Roose try to antagonize him unnecessarily? Why would Roose WANT Jon to come down from the Wall? How does that help him? Roose seems a more cautious man then that.

Oh, I'm not arguing that the pink letter was an attempt to draw Jon south, I'm arguing the opposite: that it was an attempt to ensure Jon's silence about Arya. Jon coming south was the last thing they expected or wanted.

First, the letter informs Jon that his ally, Stannis, is dead, his famous symbol Lightbringer in Bolton hands. Next, it tells Jon that the Boltons know that Mance Rayder was never killed, that the King Beyond the Wall and all the connotations that that title entails to the North, including the raiding and kipnapping of women, was actually sent to steal a legally wedded woman. Sent by Jon Snow. It's an attempt by the Boltons to neutralize Jon's credibility if he gabs about Arya. Then, the threats and demands of hostages and the returning of Arya/Reek begin. This is all about intimidation and blackmail because Roose judges Jon to be susceptible to these things because of his past inactions.

[hiraeth]

Just the thought.

Mance can take care of himself and he might have made temporary alliance with Ramsay. He might pursued him to send letter to wall.

I don't think that Ramsay can read or write, he haven't had any education in childhood and he doesn't look like man who would care about such things as grown up.

On the other hand since Mance was raised on Wall he might have learned to write. He could have write letter for Ramsay with adding few of his things.

I don't think that real message is for Jon, but Melisandre. If we read between the line message could be this:

My cower is blown but girl managed to escape (with "Reek" since he is only one other then girl and dead spear-wives that is not on the wall) and someone have to pick her up.

He can't write openly to Melisandre since some maestar (or Lord) could read it, but he can hid his message in Ramsay's ramblings.

As for Stannis, he might plan some trick, making Boltons think he is dead. Ramsay can be also misinformed. Majority of forces he has in Winterfell are against him and are there just because of "Arya" and because Freys have hostages. And lies can be easily spread. Ramsay can think everything he send in letter is true and it can still be lie.

Why would Mance ask for Val and the baby and put them in danger? His position as Boltons' captive would have to be really strong, and his influence on Ramsey (a sadistic perv) should be so well planted that he would risk Jon actually sending them... Not even Mance, as resourceful as he is, could not play the game with such high stakes, not having sufficient information on the situation at the Wall... I would say that Ramsey had someone write the letter for him, mixing half-truths, lies and real information extracted from the spearwives during their torture...

[mrlukeduke]

I can work out whether you guys have read the Winds of Winter chapters or not? This is obviously in the A Dance With Dragons section of the forum, so no spoilers from me, but many answers to these questions are in the released WoW chapter on Martin's website.

It seems like there's no point reading all of ADwD, only to avoid reading the WoW release before posting about the letter. Maybe some of you didn't know about it though, which is fair enough.

To me it resolves the issue of what happens entirely.

[Myk Lonmouth]

Ramsay wrote it.

[Tini]

I always wondered why the author of the letter would assume that Arya would go to the Wall if he is aware that Arya is fake. I could see the real Arya trying to reach the Wall, after all, her brother is at the Wall and presumably in a position to keep her safe. But why would "Arya" Jeyne Poole go to the Wall? What would she hope to find there?

If Ramsay is the author, did he just forget that his wife isn't really Arya Stark? After all he also wanted his reek back, and I really wonder what the readers at the Wall thought of that.

I believe that it is possible that Ramsay or Roose added the part about Arya because people who don't know that Arya is fake would expect them to contact Arya's brother. The Boltons don't really need the Arya subsitute anymore, just as Ramsay no longer needed Lady Hornwood after they got married. As long as "Arya" is alive / present, there is a chance that somebody will expose their scheme. They may not need "Arya" but they certainly need to keep up the pretence that Arya Stark ran away from her husband Ramsay Bolton. (Especially if Jeyne Poole shows up again.)

The entire letter might just be an attempt to strengthen the illusion that Ramsay married the real Arya Stark.

[Mammothsbane]

I always wondered why the author of the letter would assume that Arya would go to the Wall if he is aware that Arya is fake. I could see the real Arya trying to reach the Wall, after all, her brother is at the Wall and presumably in a position to keep her safe. But why would "Arya" Jeyne Poole go to the Wall? What would she hope to find there?

The same reason Alys Karstark went to the Wall - to find the last son of Ned Stark

[NotSoSilentSister]

The pink letter says Roose all the way to me. After all, Jon didn't act when his father was executed, Robb called the banners, all three brothers were treacherously and brutally murdered, or when his sisters were married off to a Lannister and sociopath, respectively. Why WOULDN'T Roose conclude that Jon could be silenced with threats, blackmail and deceit?

I might be fuzzy on the timeline, but it seems to me that when all those other things happened, Jon Snow was still some random raw recruit and could be hardly expected to be in a position to do much. He's Lord Commander now; I imagine that Roose might factor that in...