THE BASTARD'S LETTER

[The Sunset King]

The information about Mance could possibly have come to the Boltons from the spearwives, so it is not completely certain that Mance was captured. The threat to Jon of exposure would require Mance to actually be held captive at Winterfell but even that part of the letter is still impossible to confirm for sure.

[STANN1SBARATHEON]

come on, with the ruby on his wrist, mance is rattleshirt, how then could the boltons come to the conclusion that this is mance withouth the ruby being removed and the glamour ending, even if the speawives said "that's the kin-beyond-the-wall" unless they remove the ruby he still looks like rattlehshirt, and why would mance confirm he is mance when he looks like someone else, unless the glamour was gone and he could no longer hide in someone else's form,

that is why i am convinced mance's true identity was discovered, which is why ramsay flayed his spearwives and stuck mance in a cage

[pestor]

come on, with the ruby on his wrist, mance is rattleshirt, how then could the boltons come to the conclusion that this is mance withouth the ruby being removed and the glamour ending, even if the speawives said "that's the kin-beyond-the-wall" unless they remove the ruby he still looks like rattlehshirt, and why would mance confirm he is mance when he looks like someone else, unless the glamour was gone and he could no longer hide in someone else's form,

that is why i am convinced mance's true identity was discovered, which is why ramsay flayed his spearwives and stuck mance in a cage

How would Ramsey or Roose know what Rattleshirt or Mance look like? I understand that there is the off chance that Roose might know about him from him being a former ranger. And yes I can see how Roose or even both of them will know the name. But I don't see how either one would recognize him upon coming into contact with him.

[The Sunset King]

If Ramsay tortured two spearwives separately from each other and they both gave the same story about Mance, he might believe that the bard known as Abel indeed was Mance sent forth by Stannis-Jon (Stannis probably was unaware, but the author speaks as if both knew). The Boltons originally were tricked by the Abel disguise, yet it is probably the case that, with or without the glamor, they would not necessarily have known who they captured until interrogations began.

It is one of the more likely parts of the letter to be true but there still are alternate ways that the information could have come.

[Mammothsbane]

But strategically, the letter doesn't make a lot of sense from the Bolton perspective. Disclosing that fakeArya has escaped only weakens their position; assuming that Jon would just comply with these absurd requirements seems somewhat naive and provoking Jon to come to Winterfell to fight Ramsay doesn't seem like such a smart move either, considering that Stannis is already waiting in front of the doors => I'm pretty sure that Roose Bolton would never have okayed such a letter. So if the letter was indeed written by Ramsay, that must have happened behind Roose's back. Or when Roose is already dead.

Why not? Ramsay needs to strong-arm Jon into not revealing that Jeyne is not Arya. The Night's Watch takes no part. He took no part when his father got his head chopped off. He took no part when Robb had Roose's sword in his chest. Why would he take part now? Ramsay doesn't know Jon like we do. Why would Jon risk it all for someone he knows isn't his little sister? And if you think about doing it, I (Ramsay) will come and kill you.

This takes place after the battle. Stannis is, at this point, a non-issue to Ramsay. He is either dead or Ramsay thinks he's dead.

He wouldn't need Roose's permission. Ramsay is the Lord of Winterfell, not Roose.

But while the letter makes little strategical sense, it makes a lot of emotional sense for Ramsay. It seems impulsive, ill-considered, hysterical, over-compensating, desperate. It sounds very much like a defeated Ramsay grasping for straws.

Indeed. JeyneArya loose in the North is very bad for Ramsay. The risk of her being recognized will undo everything. Ramsay needs to act.. and fast. Consider the timetable - Stannis is 3 days from Winterfell. Frey/Manderly marched out to meet him. That's 3 days riding + 7 days of battle + 3 days back = 13 days. She has a 13 day head start to get to the Wall from the time they were missing. Ramsay needs to act as soon as possible.

If someone else feeds him the right ideas, Ramsay might indeed be deluded enough to believe that Jon would just comply with his wishes. Or that he could easily beat Jon and the Nightwatch, because of some kind of magic super-weapon promised by a bad counsellor.

Ramsay doesn't need magic superweapons. The Night's Watch is notoriously undermanned and defenseless from the South.

We know that Mance has a way with words and that he can be very persuasive. We know that Ramsay is a walking inferiority complex. The only person he ever developed some kind of twisted attachment to was the original Reek, who gave him ideas about his station. Ramsay seems like someone very susceptible to any kind of story that has him destined for greatness. And Mance is a great story teller. He might tell Ramsay that he is indeed the true Azor Azhai or that he is a changeling from the Others, destined to be the Nightking reborn, etc. - there's certainly no shortage of suitable stories in Mance's repertoire (and maybe he can even fabricate some evidence to back his story up - Mance might have learned a thing or two while working with Mel on the Wall).

So it was Mance's plan to get captured by Ramsay all along in order to manipulate him. If Mance wants to sell a particular story to Ramsay, disclosing himself as Mance, King Beyond the Wall, might give him more authority. He's not just some random singer, he's king of the wildlings, and as such a potentially valueable ally. Maybe he offers Ramsay to betray Jon - "Let him come to Winterfell with a Wildling host - surely they will come to save me - and then reveal me as your ally and the host will be yours" - or something like that (planning to double-cross Ramsay of course). It could very well be part of the plan to reveal himself.

Seems like a lot of speculating. It's also reliant on the fact that Mance somehow knows that Ramsay has some serious daddy issues and would be daft enough to believe his story which is completely impossible.

In short: Mance is pulling a Mel on Ramsay - he declares him superhuman, gets him to kill Roose and provoke Jon. I guess the plan is to turn on Ramsay, the moment Jon comes knocking with the Wildling host.

This would require a lot of foresight by Mance..

What's in it for Mance? He gets a host of Wildlings marching on Winterfell. Allowing Wildlings to march to Winterfell is kind of a big deal, something the Watch would only allow in the most dire of circumstances (and not even then, as we see when Jon gets assassinated for suggesting it; well worth a try, I guess). The other black brothers at the Wall still want to keep the wildlings contained. But the wildlings know that they need to go further south. The Ramsay-ploy forces Jon's hand. Mance probably did not intend him to get killed in the process though.

What makes you think that Mance would know that Jon would march South? Why would he? Everything Mance knows about Jon indicates that Jon is too stuck in his "precious vows" to do anything. He talks about it to Mel in her POV chapter. Mance betting on Jon mobilizing the Wildlings to move South is like taking the Jaguars to win the Super Bowl this year (no offense to Jags fans). I think it's safe to say that Jon mobilizing and marching to Winterfell is completely out of character and could not reasonably be predicted given Jon's characterization.

And Jon may even be in on it. Much has been made of his remark "There is some truth in it", causing people to speculate that the entire letter was written in a code agreed upon by Jon and Mance. I don't think that applies to the entirety of the letter, but it may well contain some elements desigend to signal to Jon that Mance has indeed accomplished the first stage of the plan and gained influence over Ramsay.

Doubtful. Jon didn't even know about Mance's mission to Winterfell. Mance was supposed to pick up the "grey girl on a dying horse" East of Long Lake. When Alys Karstark arrives without Mance, Jon wonders where Mance is and if letting him loose was the right decision.

The Case Against a Ramsay-Mance-Joint-Venture:

Considering that Mance is reponsible for the loss of Reek and fakeArya, he will really need a damn good story to stop Ramsay from flayling him on the spot. Ramay might not be as smart as Roose, but he does have a certain low cunning and it's not quite sure that he would be stupid enough to fall for something like that - especially considering that he himself has pulled basically the same trick on Theon.

Which is why it would be so delicious, delicous irony, if he now got to taste his own medicine. So basically my entire theory is based on wishful-thinking, because I just can't conceive of a more satisfying come-uppance for Ramsay than being ramsayed and reekified by Mance.

Mance is possibly still loose (I hope so, I like Mance) and the info was extracted by the spearwives only (there are 4 alive I think at the end of Theon's chapter). However, it is quite unlikely.

[Bastard of Nightsong]

come on, with the ruby on his wrist, mance is rattleshirt, how then could the boltons come to the conclusion that this is mance withouth the ruby being removed and the glamour ending, even if the speawives said "that's the kin-beyond-the-wall" unless they remove the ruby he still looks like rattlehshirt, and why would mance confirm he is mance when he looks like someone else, unless the glamour was gone and he could no longer hide in someone else's form,

that is why i am convinced mance's true identity was discovered, which is why ramsay flayed his spearwives and stuck mance in a cage

Mance is no longer under the glamour at Winterfell. Abel's face is Mance's own. Once you figure out Abel is Mance, the description matches the one seen before by Jon.

[NotSoSilentSister]

why would mance confirm he is mance when he looks like someone else,

Others have already adressed the ruby-issue. But I would argue that Mance might even willingly disclose himself, because it's actually part of the plan. As Mance he can offer Ramsay an alliance against Jon. He suggests himself as a bait to draw out Jon with a Wildling army to rescue him and then agrees to turn on Jon and hand the Wildling army over to Ramsay. The ploy only works, if he reveals himself as Mance.

Why not? Ramsay needs to strong-arm Jon into not revealing that Jeyne is not Arya. The Night's Watch takes no part. He took no part when his father got his head chopped off. He took no part when Robb had Roose's sword in his chest. Why would he take part now? Ramsay doesn't know Jon like we do. Why would Jon risk it all for someone he knows isn't his little sister? And if you think about doing it, I (Ramsay) will come and kill you.

Why would he take part now? Because he's Lord Commander now and can actually influence Nightwatch politics. Deserting the Watch in a reaction to Ned's death would have accomplished very little - Jon was a raw recruit then and would have made little difference. A prudent person would assume that it can take a while to solidify one's position of influence in such an institution and consider the possibility that previous inactivity might have been due to "waiting for the right moment" rather than genuine indifference/reluctance to strike.

But even if one might somewhat reasonably gamble on Jon remaining neutral, it's seems unrealistic to expect him to comply with all of the letters' requirements - not because he wouldn't be willing too, but because he mostly likely can't! Jon is not just commanded to relinquish Reek and fakeArya (something he might reasonably be expected to do) - but also Selyse, Shireen and Mel. How well are the Queen's Men going to take that? Ramsay might gamble on them being to dejected by news of Stannis' death to put up a fight, but again, this seems naive (or desperate). Assuming that there are some people of merit in Stannis remaining army at the Wall, one would expect them to need slightly more in terms of proof of their King's death rather than Ramsay's word to relinquish the Queen and the Heir. If he really had defeated Stannis, he should have sent someone from Stannis entourage with the letter to bear witness to the fact.

I won't say that Ramsay's ploy could never work out at all (I do after all believe that he wrote the letter himself) - I just think it's unncessarily risky, speaks to the absence of Roose and might indicate the influence of bad counsel.

The letter does seem built built on a couple of dubious assumptions:

Ramsay apparenty assumes that

1) Reek would take fakeArya to Jon (not exactly a given, considering that Theon knows that Jon won't have much fondness for him and will recognize fakeArya - why should Theon assume that Jon would help them?)

2) Reek would actually reach his destination (considering the bad weather and the bad condition both Reek and Jeyne are in that's rather optimistic. The area is swarming with Freys and Boltons who would deliver them back to Ramsay. Their chances are pretty slim. They might well be dead for all Ramay knows, in which case he has just given away an important piece of information - that Arya is lost in the first place - for nothing.)

It would make more sense when Ramsay assumes that Theon and Jeyne are still accompanied by some of the spearwives. Theon on his own has little motivation to go to Jon. But if there are still spearwives around who got orders from Mance, he doesn't have a choice. Also, the likelihood that the party reaches their destination increases. But then again, Ramsay's claim that he has captured and skinned them would be a transparent lie.

The most plausible explanation would be that Ramsay assumes that Reek and Jeyne reached Stannis and that Stannis sent them on to Jon. It's seems likely that he is misinformed here, because we know from the Gift Chapter that

Stannis is about to sacrifice Theon in front of a Heart Tree

.

So either, Stannis did not go through with it, or someone is lying to Ramsay.

[Mammothsbane]

Why would he take part now? Because he's Lord Commander now and can actually influence Nightwatch politics. Deserting the Watch in a reaction to Ned's death would have accomplished very little - Jon was a raw recruit then and would have made little difference. A prudent person would assume that it can take a while to solidify one's position of influence in such an institution and consider the possibility that previous inactivity might have been due to "waiting for the right moment" rather than genuine indifference/reluctance to strike.

He was Lord Commander when he found out his beloved little sister was getting married to Ramsay. He didn't do anything then. The Night's Watch takes no part. All the letter says is "keep it that way, maintain the status quo and we'll be fine. Rise against me, and we'll have a problem"

But even if one might somewhat reasonably gamble on Jon remaining neutral, it's seems unrealistic to expect him to comply with all of the letters' requirements - not because he wouldn't be willing too, but because he mostly likely can't! Jon is not just commanded to relinquish Reek and fakeArya (something he might reasonably be expected to do) - but also Selyse, Shireen and Mel. How well are the Queen's Men going to take that? Ramsay might gamble on them being to dejected by news of Stannis' death to put up a fight, but again, this seems naive (or desperate). Assuming that there are some people of merit in Stannis remaining army at the Wall, one would expect them to need slightly more in terms of proof of their King's death rather than Ramsay's word to relinquish the Queen and the Heir. If he really had defeated Stannis, he should have sent someone from Stannis entourage with the letter to bear witness to the fact.

Desperation is the key here. NotArya with Jon is catastrophic. I think we agree on that. And I agree that most of the demands are absurd, but maybe Ramsay was banking on correspondence? Or seeing how much he could get out of him? I don't really have any reason why all those demands exist. It seems like Ramsay trying to flex a little - "give me everything I need and then some or I'm going to come get you" type of deal.

I won't say that Ramsay's ploy could never work out at all (I do after all believe that he wrote the letter himself) - I just think it's unncessarily risky, speaks to the absence of Roose and might indicate the influence of bad counsel.

The letter does seem built built on a couple of dubious assumptions:

Ramsay apparenty assumes that

1) Reek would take fakeArya to Jon (not exactly a given, considering that Theon knows that Jon won't have much fondness for him and will recognize fakeArya - why should Theon assume that Jon would help them?)

2) Reek would actually reach his destination (considering the bad weather and the bad condition both Reek and Jeyne are in that's rather optimistic. The area is swarming with Freys and Boltons who would deliver them back to Ramsay. Their chances are pretty slim. They might well be dead for all Ramay knows, in which case he has just given away an important piece of information - that Arya is lost in the first place - for nothing.)

It would make more sense when Ramsay assumes that Theon and Jeyne are still accompanied by some of the spearwives. Theon on his own has little motivation to go to Jon. But if there are still spearwives around who got orders from Mance, he doesn't have a choice. Also, the likelihood that the party reaches their destination increases. But then again, Ramsay's claim that he has captured and skinned them would be a transparent lie.

1) Theon is nearly unrecognizable at this point. He's psychologically a wreck. He also has valuable information - that Bran and Rickon aren't dead. You'd have to consider what Ramsay knows. Assuming the battle is over and people have returned to Winterfell, they know Theon/Jeyne weren't found with Stannis. It's also possible that the plan (return Jeyne to the Wall) was extracted via torture by the Spearwives/Mance and Ramsay is just assuming they went together since they left together. Not an unreasonable assumption by any means.

2) I think Ramsay was expecting one of two things: 1) the letter beats the pair to the Wall and Jon sends out more people to find her or 2) They reached the Wall safely. More likely is option 1. I'd doubt the Spearwives were able to escape. 2 are dead, 1 is in NotArya's room posing as her and three are with Mance (I think?). Doesn't look good for them.

The most plausible explanation would be that Ramsay assumes that Reek and Jeyne reached Stannis and that Stannis sent them on to Jon. It's seems likely that he is misinformed here, because we know from the Gift Chapter that

Stannis is about to sacrifice Theon in front of a Heart Tree

.

So either, Stannis did not go through with it, or someone is lying to Ramsay.

I personally believe in the "Trojan Horse" theory. With that in mind, I think someone is lying to Ramsay.

It's also possible that Reek is dead and NotArya is on her way to the Wall with Tycho, Massey, and the crew set for Braavos which is also mentioned in the gift chapter

Or he has won his battle and is now besieging Winterfell. The fact that Ramsay apparently knows about Theon and Jeyne reaching Stannis speaks in favor of him actually having defeated Stannis - but he may just have succeeded in capturing some of his men, who gave him that information.

We don't know if Ramsay knows Theon and Jeyne reached Stannis. He just knows they're going to the Wall.

But Roose is Warden of the North and certainly more respected and feared by most of the men.

Ramsay would still have his own maester and wouldn't need Roose's approval. I'm sure Ramsay is just as feared.

Notorioiusly undermanned? - But so might be Winterfell, if Manderly and his men go over to Stannis and Stannis wins. Jon however might get support from the Queen's Men and the Wildlings.

Defenseless from the South? - Irrelevant, if Jon marches to meet Ramsay at Winterfell.

Winterfell could still defeat the Night's Watch. The letter says that Ramsay is going to march to the Wall; it's weakness to the south is largely relevant.

Well, Mance knows quite a bit about the Northern nobility. He has been south of the Wall a couple of times and might have gathered useful intell. Ramsay's daddy issues are not hard to discern. I admit, the Ramsay-chose-one-thing is the crackpottiest aspect of the theory, which I added basically as nice flourish, but it's not strictly neccessary for the "alliance-against-Jon" part of the theory. Of course Ramsay would have to be pretty daft to fall for the same trick he himself pulled on Theon, but it's not completely impossible. He has a certain low cunning, but he's not really all that smart. A certain kind of sociopath tends to underestimate others (that's the drawback of feeling so above everone else) and can end up quite surprised when their own tricks are used against them.

Ramsay is "nouveau riche" (so to speak) though. We don't know how much Mance knows about him. He's been King-Beyond-the-Wall for years. Yeah, he knows some of what's happening but intricate details of Ramsay's personality is a little bit of a stretch. Ramsay is recently trueborn and was never a highborn lord until recently. I think Mance knowing Ramsay would fall for this is the biggest stretch of the theory (aside from Mance betting on Jon ditching his vows and marching South).

____

The problem I have with this theory (no offense) and others like it is that it hedges on the bet that Jon will take men South to fight Ramsay which is a completely unreliable gamble. Hell, Jon mobilizing shocked most of the readers (me especially) and we've been in his head for 4 books. The decision Jon made to move South with the wildlings is one that I don't think can be reasonably predicted by other characters given Jon's characterization and interactions with other characters.

But that's just me.

[linesofblaschko]

A lot of people are questioning how anyone would know about Reek, but I just came across a passage from ACOK where Lady Hornwood explicitly mentions him when pleading with Bran to save her from marrying him.

(pg 251 in the paperback)

"He lived with his mother until two years past, when young Domeric died and left Bolton without an heir. That was when he brought his bastard to the Dreadfort. The boy is a sly creature by all accounts, and he has a servant who is almost as cruel as he is. Reek, they call the man. It's said he never bathes. They hunt together, the bastard and this Reek, and not for deer."

So as early as ACOK, Reek's existence seems to be relatively common knowledge in the North. I imagine their notoriety only grows as Ramsay gains power.

Not sure what this means in terms of the author of the Pink Letter, but for the record, plenty of people know about Reek.

[linesofblaschko]

Since I'm getting a weird version of the site and can't edit, I should clarify that the quote above is Lady Hornwood speaking.

[Men in their cups say...]

I just had a weird thought which has probably been addressed already but here it goes:

The Night's King is a story about the King beyond the Wall and the ruler of Winterfell teaming up to take down the LC of the Nights Watch after said LC basically goes rouge. So maybe we're seeing a parallel here. Ramsay, thinks he's teaming up with Mance, to take down Jon. I'm not sure on the details here, just sorta spitballin......

But just for the record I still think Ramsay wrote the letter.

[NotSoSilentSister]

Desperation is the key here. NotArya with Jon is catastrophic. I think we agree on that. And I agree that most of the demands are absurd, but maybe Ramsay was banking on correspondence? Or seeing how much he could get out of him? I don't really have any reason why all those demands exist.

That's the main thing for me. I will admit that the hope that Jon would continue the prescribed appeasement policy and deliver NotArya and Reek is not completly absurd, judging from Jon's past behavior. But if this is really the priority - preventing Jon from exposing NotArya as NotArya - why add all those other demands that make it just so much less likely that Jon will be able to comply even if he wanted to?

Of course it's a popular strategy in negotiations, to ask for something absurdely above your actual target, so that you still strike a good deal, even after the inevitable concessions. But Ramsay's letter doesn't sound like an invitation to open negotiations. It leaves little room for compromise. Which all but guarantees Jon's defiance. Complying with Ramsay's wishes would mean beef with both Wildlings' and Queen's Men - something that's just not politically feasible at the Walll right now, considering that together both factions easily outnumber the crows. By asking too much of him, Ramsay basically leaves him no choice but to march against him.

Of course, it's a downright smart move if your main objective is to get Jon assassinated since every option left to him is bound to piss off someone, which is of course also in Ramsay's interest, but still rather risky, since there's nothing to prevent Jon from revealing NotArya if he chooses defiance (a more than a 50/50 chance, IMO) and even his subsequent assassination won't get the beans unspilled. Dead Jon might be a nice side-effect for Ramsay, but the secret still would be out.

So if the main priority is to get Jon to shut up about Arya, asking for Stannis' ladies is not just superfluous, but downright counterproductive.

But Ramsay might well be not clear-headed enough to see that.

[fassreiter]

The problem I have with this theory (no offense) and others like it is that it hedges on the bet that Jon will take men South to fight Ramsay which is a completely unreliable gamble. Hell, Jon mobilizing shocked most of the readers (me especially) and we've been in his head for 4 books. The decision Jon made to move South with the wildlings is one that I don't think can be reasonably predicted by other characters given Jon's characterization and interactions with other characters.

It's too bad there are so many problems with this theory, I like it! But in order to make it work, there are too many unreliable factors:

1. Mance would have to be sure that the wildlings crossed the Wall - there is nothing in the text (so far) that indicates he (or Ramsay) know about this.

2. Mance would have to be sure that Jon would do something stupid.

3. Mance would have to be sure that Ramsay would be stupid enough to fall for the same trick he used in order to gain Winterfell, his current title, even his life.

The risk is too high, I think. Jon might just hand over his son to Ramsay in order to save his precious NW, or Ramsay might be so pissed that he decides to attack Castle Black and kill Jon, Val, Mance's son and Mance.

[NotSoSilentSister]

It's too bad there are so many problems with this theory, I like it! But in order to make it work, there are too many unreliable factors:

1. Mance would have to be sure that the wildlings crossed the Wall - there is nothing in the text (so far) that indicates he (or Ramsay) know about this.

2. Mance would have to be sure that Jon would do something stupid.

3. Mance would have to be sure that Ramsay would be stupid enough to fall for the same trick he used in order to gain Winterfell, his current title, even his life.

The risk is too high, I think. Jon might just hand over his son to Ramsay in order to save his precious NW, or Ramsay might be so pissed that he decides to attack Castle Black and kill Jon, Val, Mance's son and Mance.

1) My memory might be hazy, but I think that a lot of Wildlings have already crossed the Wall before Mance is sent on his mission. Val's negotiations with Tormund, the settlement of the Wildlings in the Gift - I think all of this actually happens before RattleshirtMance is burnt.

2) I don't think that what Jon does is stupid. Not stupider than ignoring Ramsay's letter or actually trying to hand over Selyse and Shireen would be at any rate. Jon would just have gotten assassinated by the Queen's Men and Wildlings instead. Jon's failed to properly communicate his reasoning, that was his doom. But the reasoning itself is pretty sound, I think.

3) That's the big gamble, yes. Then again, Mance doesn't know that Ramsay pulled the same trick to win Winterfell, so he might think it's worth a try.

[fassreiter]

1) My memory might be hazy, but I think that a lot of Wildlings have already crossed the Wall before Mance is sent on his mission. Val's negotiations with Tormund, the settlement of the Wildlings in the Gift - I think all of this actually happens before RattleshirtMance is burnt.

No, there were only those who were captured by Stannis, about 300 fighters among them. Mance left before Jon even talked to Val about looking for Tormund.

2) I don't think that what Jon does is stupid. Not stupider than ignoring Ramsay's letter or actually trying to hand over Selyse and Shireen would be at any rate. Jon would just have gotten assassinated by the Queen's Men and Wildlings instead. Jon's failed to properly communicate his reasoning, that was his doom. But the reasoning itself is pretty sound, I think.

I don't think he is stupid either, but we do know he has a wildling army. Also from the POV of the NW, it would be stupid because Jon would give up his position for his family. Remember when Mance told Mel that Jon could send his crows to help his sister (which is what he would do), she told him that Jon was different. I think this is what Mance knows about Jon. He also accused him of betraying Ygritte (his "wildling wife") for the NW. Why should he assume that he would act differently now? And why should the Queen's men be able to kill him? The NW has far more numbers. The wildlings are not even there as far as Mance knows, and why should he assume that they would follow Jon anyway?

3) That's the big gamble, yes. Then again, Mance doesn't know that Ramsay pulled the same trick to win Winterfell, so he might think it's worth a try.

Mance knew what Ramsay did to Theon, and we know Theon told him all he knew about Ramsay when he tried to talk himself out of helping with the Arya-escape-plan. Also Mance has been in Winterfell for quite a while, and people talked to him and the washerwomen.

But I really like your theory. Maybe it does work somehow, we don't know enough yet.

[setmyheartafire]

Two totally different viewpoints on this one. First, Ramsey didnt write the letter. It would be stupid for Ramsey to taunt Jon and another possible force to move against him.

Yes it's true the NW generally stays out of lords' squabbles. But things as they are, I would think it would not be out of the question to send numbers of the NW to Winterfell, especially if it is currently being held by hostile forces. It's the protectorate seat in the North. The NW have a long relationship with Winterfell for many reasons. So taunting the LC who also happens to be of Stark blood seems like a stupid idea.

What could come of it to benefit Ramsey?

Jon Snow attacks, Winterfell falls. Bad for Bolton.

Jon Snow attacks, the Wall is undefended. Wildlings and/or giants and/or all manner of threats come through the wall. Bad for Bolton.

Jon Snow attacks and loses. Who cares? He's not a Stark anyway, to Ramsay he has no interest in lording over Winterfell, and who the heck wants to lead the NW up at the cold Wall?

Jon Snow brings all these people mentioned. What does Ramsey do with them? If Stannis is dead, what will he do with the queen and Shireen? I guess they could be Florent hostages, but why? Melisandre? Ok, maybe she could be of interest. Reek and "Arya", ok. Got it. Val and the babe? For what purpose? Just to torture

However, these people are all valuable to Mance. With perhaps the exception of Theon and "Arya", Mance would benefit from their presence. And Mance has a huge motive for doing this: his SON is in possession of the NW. Or so he thinks.

Because of Jon Snow, Mance lost his army. He may believe he lost his woman because of him too. Certainly the battle raging around her childbirth wasnt healthy. He lost his freedom. He has to go about with Mel's ruby slave jewelry on lest Stannis find out he lives and desire to burn him again.

He agrees to go to Winterfell before Jon even asks. Surely while Mel was gone he had already been thinking about how to regain his freedom.

Now maybe he wants what he figures was stolen. Maybe he wants to put Mel, Selyse, and Shireen in their place. Maybe he wants Snow to pay for his frequent duplicity. And I'm sure he definitely wants his son back.

On the flip side he could want Jon Snow in Winterfell because he needs him for something there only Jon could know. Either way he definitely has the most sensible motives for goading Jon into making for Winterfell.

Plus he is way too badass to be hanging in a cage. I submit Bolton is in the cage getting all he deserves for his prior crimes against humanity.

On the other hand, maybe Ramsay did write it, if only to stave off political attack if Jon found out Bran and Rickon live, or that "Arya" is fake. It's still a bit over the top and full of weird demands for this scenario though. Why not just say "I know you lied about Rayder, your king is dead, so keep your mouth shut"?

[redriver]

I had virtually ruled out any Stannis involvement in the letter on the basis of the number of hoops he would have to jump through to acquire all the necessary information.

But I'm now coming round to the idea,based on the gift chapter,which I believe Martin concedes takes place before Jons last chapter.This gives time for Stannis to actually take Winterfell from the Boltons,and there are plenty of plot indicators that he does exactly this.

We learn in the gift chapter that Stannis is aware of the Karstark treachery.Theon tells Stannis that the Manderly and Frey forces are at loggerheads and will attack seperately.Stannis reveals he will make use of "natural defenses-likely ice holes in the lakes.

The phrase "He wants his bride back.He wants his Reek is telling.As is the warning that Massey might hear of his death,and it "may be true".

We know that Manderly is plotting to overthrow the Boltons and will side with Stannis in the battle.So you have Stannis with the Manderly forces,and the Karstark men verses a bunch of Freys,and later maybe Ramsay.

Either way I think Stannis wins this battle.And using the Manderlys,gets access to Winterfell using the oft repeated magic sword ploy.

Assuming this is the case,then Stannis and Mance have common cause with regard to Jon.Stannis wants Jon as Lord of Winterfell for political reasons.

Mance,I believe wants this too,but for more esoteric reasons,linked to "There must be a Stark in Winterfell",which is connected to defending against the "true enemy."

So how to get Jon to Winterfell?.Stannis asked nicely and gets rebuffed.Mance is present to witness Jon shrug off Ramsay's letter informing him of his impending marriage to "Arya".

I think they both realize they have to tap into Jon's wolf blood to goad him into action,by ratcheting up the emotional impact of the letter using the word bastard and issuing actual threats.

Mance was always the author of the letter for me,he has already articulated most of the phraseology of the letter in his interactions with Jon.Now I think it's quite possible he's written it under the supervision of Stannis.

And Stannis gets to let Mel know that he's aware of her deception.And Mance gets to let the Wildlings know that their king is alive.

[NotSoSilentSister]

No, there were only those who were captured by Stannis, about 300 fighters among them. Mance left before Jon even talked to Val about looking for Tormund.

Well, that's already quite something for a start. I don't have an accurate idea of the precise numbers, but I still have the impression that if captive Wildlings and Queen's Men teamed up (which seems not far-fetched, if Jon tries to hand over Val, Monster, Mel, Selyse and Shireen) they would outnumber the remaining Night-Watch.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

I've posted this elsewhere, but i think it has some bearing here insofar as it addresses some of the timeline surrounding the events in question. I know this is a highly unlikely scenario and it has already been debate (fassreiter has poked a number of holes in it) nevertheless there are some pertinent timeframe issues at the bottom that make it hard for me to believe the Bolton's

I think Mance is the author of the pink letter and moreover he has eliminated/neutralized both the Boltons and the Freys and w/ some allied northern lords is in control of Winterfell looking to put a Stark back in control.

here's how...

1. Before the Escape i believe Mance persuades a number of northern lords to back his ploy.

• Mance is persuasive as hell - he persuaded the wildlings to join forces, and survived stannis's justice, and Jon can't help but like him.
  
• I think at least some of the spearwives are daughters of northern lords this gives him a useful bargaining piece/good faith gesture to win over the northerns. Mance isn't stupid he selected the spearwives by name indicating they are well know (what spearwife would be more well know than a northern lords daughter) he would also be choosing northerners for their understanding of the cultural norms and possible alliances that they could forge once inside WF.
  
• I think that Mance offers to free fake "Arya" if in return some of the northern lords upon hearing that she has escaped turn cloak and betray the Boltons/Freys.
  
• i think the hooded man is someone from Mors camp -not Mors himself theon's description of Mors in the sample chapter didn't seam to indicate he was the same person as the hooded man- likely one of the many scouts that Roose Ryswell refers to as leaving the hunter's gate but not returning (p.609 ADwD hardcopy). I think the hooded man is there to meet w/ Whoresbane to let him know Mors is outside and to co-ordinate both inside and outside WF. Furthermore I figure the Hooded man got into WF via a wildling rope ladder placed by a spearwife who's taking a quick trip outside the walls.
  
• The Northern Lords during the interrogation of Theon are notably pointed w/ the freys. Specifically Lady Dustin and Roger Ryswell are harsh despite having been the voices of moderation in the past. But more striking is the difference of attitude in the Great Hall the morning of the escape - the Boltons are angry, arguing and fearful, while at the same time Roger Ryswell and Harwood Stout are laughing and making japes.
  

2. We all know Mance frees someone he knows to be a Fake Arya using essentially 2 spearwives and Theon. The question is why?

• Mance knows that arya's a fake, theon thinks he's a fool for saving the wrong girl and repeatedly points it out in the escape chapter, however mance like thoen knows that arya is the only thing holding the northern lords to the Boltons/Freys without her the Bolton claim to WF evaporates. The other northern lords know this as well - keep in mind the constant references to Jenye having the wrong eyes compared to Tyrion who recognized that at least Aegon has the right eyes. Everyone knows "Arya" is a Fake. However no-one will make a move for fear of being flayed. Thus Mance offers to save "Arya" so long as they back him when it's revealed that she's gone - if the ploy fails he'll be the one who gets flayed if it succeeds the North can have it's revenge.
  
• Freyna was sent w/ the rope because, I think, she's Mors Umber's daughter. She is big and stupid, both are Umber traits. Reuniting Mors w/ his daughter would be a huge plus for Mance winning the favor of the Northern Lords/Umber clan.
  
• The escape therefore serves a number of functions. It removes the Bolton claim to WF, allows for the creation of alliances, and the ensuing chaos within WF will allow Mance to brake the Bolton hold on the north.
  

3. Mance will use the Chaos created by Aenys Frey's death and the escape of Fake "Arya" to take the Boltons and Freys by surprise.

• When Theon leaves the Great Hall w/ the spearwives to free fake "arya" Mance was on the high table w/in striking distance of the Boltons.
  
• we also know Mance is a gifted fighter capable of holding his own. he is more than confident, and rightly so, that Ramsay can try as he like but he's no match for the mighty Mance.
  
• w/ the benefit of surprise and some secret allies such as Whoresbane, Rywell, Stout, Manderly, Hornwood's men, and perhaps some Locke's men (see p.251 hardcopy ADwD the Lockes don't like Ramsay),
  
• Three of the spearwives headed back toward the Great Hall to help Mance.
  
• I think the news of Aenys' death in Mors' pit outside the Main Gate of WF and the News of Jenye's escape will reach the Great Hall at the same time causing massive chaos. Mance will strike killing Roose and Ramsay while the northern lords rise up and eliminate the Freys and Boltons in the Great Hall, the North gets its vengeance with a mini red-wedding.
  
• Outside in the yard the Manderlys will surround the remaining Frey forces, who've regrouped in the Yard awaiting further instruction after the false start, there they will be trample under the heavy horse and knights of the White Harbor.
  
• No more Boltons. No more Freys. Mance and host of northern lords holding WF.
  

4. Mance w/ the Northern Lords wrote the Pink Letter.

• they have all the necessary knowledge.
  
• they have motive. Mance wants his army of wildlings, his son and sister-in-law back. He and the Northern Lords want hostages to use against Stannis. The lords of the north have all made it clear they don't want Stannis as king. Having his wife, daughter and priest would be good bargaining tools to bring Stannis to yield - if he survives the snows to even make it to WF. and i'm sure Mance has a bone to pick w/ Stannis. He crushed Mance's army, took him captive, interrogated him at length, took his child, caged his people, likely threatened to burn him alive and represents all that drove him from the Nights Watch.
  
• There is also no threat of Ramsay or Roose getting any of the hostages/freed captives because the Boltons are dead - thus the authors of the letter have no cause for actual fear they want Jon to come down to WF for their own reasons.
  
• Some of the northern lords probably want Jon in WF either as a superstition, a back up plan, or some sort of revenge (lady dustin must know of jons possible parentage and the fact that he was part of the party that made it back from the south w/ Ned Stark, she may also feel like it's a way of getting revenge on Cat by trying to place a non-tully/bastard in WF she could at least have some small victory in this).
  

5. This explains some things that don't make sense to me.

• This explains how Theon and Jenye could jump from the walls of WF and be found immediately by Mors, he knew they would be coming from above the Battlements gate.
  

  
  

• It also explains how they could jump, Mors could find them, interrogate them, get word that the Main Gate was opening, smile and then presumably ride around WF to confirm that the Freys had fallen in his trap, then meet up w/ the bravossi banker, tell him what's up and send him to Stannis all w/ out a battle or any direct contact w/ Frey, Ramsay and his hunting party, or any confirmation that the Manderlys actually exited WF despite being at the easiest gate to open. It also explains how Tycho could make it to Stannis despite being slowed by 6 Iron Born, 2 "Gifts" who probably aren't fit to ride, and 2 Nights watch which is the only factor that could facilitate swift travel. If Ramsay is alive it's hard to believe he/his dogs wouldn't catch up to His Reek and His Bride which would be priority #1 for both him and Roose. All of this was possible because inside WF the Boltons and the Freys are getting torn to pieces.
  
• This explains why there is no report of a battle in the Theon sample chapter (or anywhere outside of the Pink Letter). If there was a battle outside the walls of WF between the Freys and Crowsfood' men then Stannis would have known from Tycho and he would have asked Theon about it to confirm what Tycho had reported as he did w/ other info brought by the Bravossi Banker. Furthermore if there was a battle outside the walls of WF it's hard to believe that Mors could survive w/ as small and unseasoned a force as the one he commands. therefore it's safe to assume the Freys turned around and went back inside, their leader/brain is dead and lord stupid needs a new horse the gate closes behind them - all for the better. Mors and his new "Gifts" return to camp Tycho shows up Mors sends him on his way w/ the "Gifts".
  

  
  

• This also explains the letter. It's not from a desperate Mance on the run, but a victorious Mance w/ a major stronghold and the backing Northnern Lords eager to bring Stannis to heal and install a real Stark back in WF.
  
• there is also an explanation for the hooded man. A missing scout makes sense, it was pointed out that the scouts go missing the same chapter that yellow dick is killed, the stables collapse, the hooded man shows up and the spearwives take theon to mance and the Mors starts sounding his warhorn and drums.
  

[NotSoSilentSister]

It's not impossible. Still.... I just don't think that Roose and Ramsay are quite out of the running yet. The logic might add up; my objection is more based on poetology.

1) Martin said he did not plan to give any new characters' POVs.

2) That means that the moment Theon leave, we don't have a POV at Winterfell any longer.

3) That means that everything that happens after his departure will come to us via second-hand report.

4) So if Mance indeed killed Roose and Ramsay as you described it, we will only hear about it after the fact - there is no POV present to show us in visceral detail.

I would have to say, I would find that .... disappointing.

But then again, Martin is all about frustrating readers' expectations.