THE BASTARD'S LETTER

[Dimadick]

This is sort of backed up by the oddity of Ramsay asking for Val and the baby in addition to Selyse and Shirren — why would he care about them? Mance could also use Stannis' wife and daughter as hostages of his own, but to Ramsay, Val and the baby hold no value at all.

I don't know about the significance of the unnamed boy. But I think Val has become a rather prominent member of Stannis' court and gaining a reputation. Axel Florent informs us that Stannis has mentioned Val in his correspondence: "this wildling princess His Grace King Stannis wrote of...". Asha Greyjoy has never met Val, but already known her by reputation: "the wildling princess that Asha had heard so much of". If the Boltons want to dismantle Stannis' ruling circle, Val can't be overlooked.

The expression "crows" is not limited to the wildlings. It seems to be used by members of the Night's Watch for themselves. Dywen used the expression in a public argument with Bowen Marsh: "We don't have the men to watch a hundred leagues o'Wall. Tormund Giantsbutt and the bloody Weeper knows it too. Ever see a duck frozen in a pond, with his feet in the ice? It works the same for crows."

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

Yeah StannisandDaeny, I was getting a "Shining" vibe but in a half burned Winterfell.

I felt the horror elements of DWD were really strong, Bran in the North, Tyrion w/ the Stone Men and Ramsay/Reek and the crowds in the snows at Winterfell & Stannis's camp all really oozed gloom, running out of options, creapy-ness and unease

[Dimadick]

From this, we must deduce that for whatever reason Ramsay is unable to make the two day ride to Castle Black for an easy victory.

Aren't you forgetting the weather conditions? Heavy snowfall with no end in sight, "the kingsroad was said to be impassable". Only "three days's ride" from Winterfell, Stannis' army was snowbound and starving. Within Winterfell, humans and animals were desperately seeking warmth. Hosteen Frey lost his ear to frostbite. The rations weren't too good either. Bacon and ham was already reserved for the lords and knights. Everyone else had to rely on a diet of "pease porridge" and yesterday's bread (stale).

Regardless of which army wins the coming battle, both seem to be facing supply problems. And would be unlikely to find themselves able to march to the north of Winterfell. Assuming that weather conditions are even worse up there.

[Dimadick]

Why? Everyone knows the men of the NW are called crows. Also, is learning to read and write part of becoming a NW man? It seems unlikely that Mance would know how to do either.

We already know that there is no compulsory reading course in the Watch. While reading a message from Eastwatch, Jon Snow contemplates that "The letter had been written by Maester Harmune; Cotter Pyke could neither read nor write." Denys Mallister seems to be writing his own letters, but there is no indication that he was taught to do so by other Watch members.

[StannisandDaeny]

I think Val has become a rather prominent member of Stannis' court and gaining a reputation. Axel Florent informs us that Stannis has mentioned Val in his correspondence: "this wildling princess His Grace King Stannis wrote of...". Asha Greyjoy has never met Val, but already known her by reputation: "the wildling princess that Asha had heard so much of". If the Boltons want to dismantle Stannis' ruling circle, Val can't be overlooked.

They certainly respect her because she kicks ass on pretty much every level, but I think 'Team Stannis' is putting a little too much trust in her and forgetting she's a Wildling (this goes for their attitude towards most of the Wildlings). Apart from that, her attitude towards Shireen also kinda hints (to me) that she has 0 loyalty to 'Team Stannis'. Her reputation with Stannis and his men comes from her ability, but mostly from necessity. Stannis needs allies, and the Wildlings are the only reasonable option for reinforcements right now. They lack discipline, but with a little bit of drill and the right weapons (after they take them from the Freys and Boltons corpses, perhaps? :P), they could make some of the best soldiers simply because of their hardiness, I think. Sadly they don't seem like the kind that would march on a longer campaign. That's the one thing I like about the Wildlings (as a story element), they're extremely unpredictable.

[StannisandDaeny]

Double post, forum was going crazy yesterday.

[Buried Treasure]

We already know that there is no compulsory reading course in the Watch. While reading a message from Eastwatch, Jon Snow contemplates that "The letter had been written by Maester Harmune; Cotter Pyke could neither read nor write." Denys Mallister seems to be writing his own letters, but there is no indication that he was taught to do so by other Watch members.

True, Mallister would have been taught to read and write as part of his upbringing at Seagard (I'm presuming he's a main branch Mallister, unless it has been mentioned he is from a cadet branch).

I don't think it is impossible Mance can read though, he was with the Watch from an early age and was raised by it. All of his basic skills (fighting, hunting, animal husbandry...) would have been taught to him by the Watch and as a smart child he might have sent along to the maester to get basic literacy. It's not the same as the majority of boys the NW gets who are half-grown when they arrive (Jon was one of the youngest) and are expected to fulfill men's tasks and chores from the start, only getting taught fighting then the specific skills need for their order.

Not that I think Mance wrote the letter. The style (and especially the obsession with bastardy) scream Ramsay to me.

eta:

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They certainly respect her because she kicks ass on pretty much every level, but I think 'Team Stannis' is putting a little too much trust in her and forgetting she's a Wildling (this goes for their attitude towards most of the Wildlings).

It seems that most of the Queen’s men in Selyse’s little circle aren’t so much forgetting Val is a wildling as recasting her as ‘beautiful barbarian princess’, and you are right they are doing it with a few others as well – notably wossisname the Red Craven’s descendent. This seems to be due to an inability to relate to the differences in the wildling culture. The wildling have always been the barbaric enemy but if they are now allied with ‘Team Stannis’ they are not that anymore and they can’t be peasants or they would worth not Selyse dealing with them – so they have to be treated as nobility by default.

Jon understands Val better, and she did earn a lot of trust from him by fetching Tormund. He knows she is not the wildlng princess, but realises she is smart enough to play the role to help achieve their joint overlapping aims.

.

[Theo1]

Couple of things. If we take as a premise that Mance reads people well, given his turn of phrase on the dornishman's woman song that Theon fears will anger roose and Ramsey, but they actually both are pleased by it (just as a single example of his ability to read people and situations), then he may be able to sound like Ramsey in the letter. After all, that would be the goal right? To sound like a nut job who could go bat shit crazy against the watch. This is the threat to cause Jon to send these useful people to him. His goal is accomplished precisely by screaming of Ramsey as the voice behind the letter. It is supposed to sound like Ramsey, and able has been watching this psycho for a while in the confines of Winterfell. Plus, the letter also seems remarkably well pointed at Jon's psychological vulnerabilities, that Mance would have a better read on than Ramsey.

He asks for Val and the child because these a potential hostages against him. Val is family, and the boy, as far as he knows, is his son. Val is also a powerful person of the wildlings, so one would not want Stannis to have her as a hostage.

Mance may be able to read and write, given his intelligence. If he cannot, perhaps that explains Theon's use of the same phrase in the letter as when hanging on the wall in front of Stannis. Could Mance have had him dictate?

[Lady of Long Lake]

Why? Everyone knows the men of the NW are called crows. Also, is learning to read and write part of becoming a NW man? It seems unlikely that Mance would know how to do either. And he asked for his Reek back. If that's not proof that Ramsay wrote it, I don't know what is.

Is the Ramsay/Reek relationship common knowledge in the North?

[Buried Treasure]

Couple of things. If we take as a premise that Mance reads people well, given his turn of phrase on the dornishman's woman song that Theon fears will anger roose and Ramsey, but they actually both are pleased by it (just as a single example of his ability to read people and situations), then he may be able to sound like Ramsey in the letter. After all, that would be the goal right? To sound like a nut job who could go bat shit crazy against the watch. This is the threat to cause Jon to send these useful people to him. His goal is accomplished precisely by screaming of Ramsey as the voice behind the letter. It is supposed to sound like Ramsey, and able has been watching this psycho for a while in the confines of Winterfell. Plus, the letter also seems remarkably well pointed at Jon's psychological vulnerabilities, that Mance would have a better read on than Ramsey.

He asks for Val and the child because these a potential hostages against him. Val is family, and the boy, as far as he knows, is his son. Val is also a powerful person of the wildlings, so one would not want Stannis to have her as a hostage.

Mance may be able to read and write, given his intelligence. If he cannot, perhaps that explains Theon's use of the same phrase in the letter as when hanging on the wall in front of Stannis. Could Mance have had him dictate?

Just to run with the idea that Mance knows Reek well enough to impersonate him in a letter;

- Your suggested motive is to get Val and the babe away from Stannis, so you are evidently thinking Mance is sending the raven from Winterfell rather than Stannis' camp. Are you suggesting that 'Abel' still has the run of the castle even after his women were involved in helping 'Arya' escape?

- Why would Mance invent all the extra details such as being in a caught and put in a cage, a battle, and additionally demand that Mel, Selyse and Shireen get sent?

- Jon meekly obeying the ultimatum, putting them all on horses and sending them off (breaking guest right in the process by sending his guests into danger) does not seem a likely outcome to me based on what I know of his character. Why would Mance, who also knows Jon well, think he would do these things?

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

Another aspect,

relying on the recent information about ravens, even if Mance can read or write, or Ramsay for that matter, how would they even know which Winterfell raven is Castle Blacks/Kings Landing/Dreadfort etc.?

Did Master Lewin have a great raven filing system?

The Bolton's brought some of their own ravens, and Mance may have had raven experience, but generally each castle has specific people sending ravens and reading/writing is a necessary but it seemed to need training to be successful & that was shown pretty clearly in GoT when Jon gets Sam for the steward/maester position.

It is another possible strike against the Mance theory, he could have control over the Dreadfort ravener but its getting a lot more complex, reading, writing, winning, motives, ravens, controlling Winterfell not just knocking off Ramsay, Stannis not being the leader, none of the other North lords around (why would they listen to Mance).

I don't think Mance could control Winterfell w/out more man power, if Stannis won the battle Mance might have the man power but not be in control of the ship, regardless of who survived, maybe a secretive letter attempt?

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

The more I read through all these theories the more I think it is actually Ramsay. I was less inclined to believe it was Ramsay before reading the sample Theon chapter. When weighing access to ravens, the ability to read and write, someone who could know everything mentioned in the letter, there's always something that makes it hard to fit any other author. Mance seems closest, but can he even write? Can he send ravens? If not how did he kidnap a maester get him to the rookery and escape. Anything is possible but Ramsay seems to require the smallest leaps of faith to explain everything.

Precisely. I can't believe this thread is still going, I said back on page 3 or 4 that Ramsay wrote it!

[redriver]

Precisely. I can't believe this thread is still going, I said back on page 3 or 4 that Ramsay wrote it!

Let's use Occam's Razor and apply it to the main candidates with regard to the truths in the letter,leaving motivation and other aspects to one side,for the moment.

THEON;He probably knows about Stannis,his family and Melisandre.He probably knows about someone called Mance Rayder.I doubt he knows anything about Dalla,Val or the "wildling prince".He certainly does not know that Mance is Abel.All the Winterfell chapters in ADWD,and the gift chapter are from Theons POV and there is no indication in any that he knows this.

So for Theon to be the writer, a series of events must have occurred.For example,Ramsay caught and tortured Mance,then rode into battle against Stannis,got caught himself,gave up all the relevant info.We also have to assume that Theon is safe and well,with access to Wall ravens.Unlikely.

STANNIS;He does not know about the Ramsay/Reek thing,nor does he know Mance is alive or in Winterfell.He did know about the "Arya" marriage arrangement.So,the assumptions are similar to above,Ramsay has been caught and persuaded to give up the relevant info,having done the same to Mance himself.

Unlikely,but less so than Theon.

RAMSAY;At he time Theon left Winterfell with "Arya",Ramsay did not know about the King Beyond The Wall being burned,or anything about Mance's family or Val.However,the escape has been found out and if Ramsay has caught Abel,then he could have acquired the information.

Certainly possible.But would Mance be easy to catch or get info from?

Mance;As far as "truth" in the letter is concerned,he knows it all at the time of the escape.No question about the knowledge.But questions do exist about logistics and motive,but they apply to all the candidates.

Occam's Razor points to Mance as far as the information in the letter is concerned,with Ramsay a close second.

[bemused]

The trouble with razor exercise is that we don't know enough to apply it properly.

Theon..no, IMO..if he survives , he'd still be in a very fragile condition, mentally as well as physically, and when we last see him ( in the gift chapter ) he doesn't even have the freedom of movement to carry out the writing and sending , even if he could think of it.

We can't say what Stannis doesn't know, because when we last see him , he's poised to be able to find out , or figure out most , or all of it , and he wouldn't need to capture Ramsay to do it. We don't know that he doesn't know Mance is alive. He easily could.WE don't know how much or how little he knows about Mance's past history.

Even if Theon remains incoherent , Stannis might easily get a handle on the Ramsay /Reek business. He knows Theon fears Ramsay more than Roose . He knows Theon has been in Ramsay's custody all this time . He can see what has been done to him... and everyone knows Theon does reek.

But Theon may become less incoherent ,in which case, the number of the spearwives could be known to Stannis , as well.

Stannis has access to ravens and a Dreadfort maester ( pink wax ).

Ramsay ( or Roose ).. wouldn't need to have captured Mance...just a spearwife, and one of Stannis' men..to know all that's in the letter. But they wouldn't know how many wildlings had crossed to Jon and so wouldn't know there could be any real danger to themselves in threatening Jon and the Watch.

Mance ..I agree is the most unlikely from a logistical standpoint.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

Let's use Occam's Razor and apply it to the main candidates with regard to the truths in the letter,leaving motivation and other aspects to one side,for the moment.

Excellent strategy in real life, but Occam's Razor isn't necessarily applicable in invented stories, especially fantasies.

STANNIS;He does not know about the Ramsay/Reek thing,nor does he know Mance is alive or in Winterfell.He did know about the "Arya" marriage arrangement.

When last we saw Stannis (and the sample chapter would have taken place prior to Jon's reading of the letter), he had Theon chained to a wall and already gibbering info about Roose's troop strength and Ramsay's cruelty. I think Stannis is likely to gain most of Theon's knowledge. And we don't know that Stannis is unaware of Melisandre's deception with Mance. Unless she's completely given up on him as her AA, I have my doubts that she'd deceive and defy Stannis this blatantly. We know that Stannis is willing to bend his principles in the name of pragmatism - he might have done so again with Mance. It's even possible that Melisandre had already communicated her plans for Mance to Stannis before he left.

But I don't see how writing the letter would serve Stannis' purposes.

RAMSAY;At he time Theon left Winterfell with "Arya",Ramsay did not know about the King Beyond The Wall being burned,or anything about Mance's family or Val.However,the escape has been found out and if Ramsay has caught Abel,then he could have acquired the information. Certainly possible.But would Mance be easy to catch or get info from?

And wouldn't Melisandre know? Mance is "enslaved" to her gem, just as Rattleshirt was, and Melisandre felt the pain of his burning. If Mance's own gem was removed or Mance was tormented by Ramsay, wouldn't Melisandre have become aware that the entire scheme was exposed days before the letter was received and informed Jon?

By the way, am I missing something about Rattleshirt's death? He went along with the pretense that he was Mance for no apparent reason and seemed to go to his pyre with remarkably few objections, smiling until he actually saw the cage. If he, and by implication Mance, were that deeply under Melisandre's infuence, it's possible that Mance-as-letter-writer is advancing some scheme of Melisandre's instead of his own.

Mance;As far as "truth" in the letter is concerned,he knows it all at the time of the escape.No question about the knowledge.But questions do exist about logistics and motive,but they apply to all the candidates. Occam's Razor points to Mance as far as the information in the letter is concerned,with Ramsay a close second.

I'm leaning toward Mance as well, but as you say there are obstacles there also. Speaking for myself, there isn't enough info to solve this problem now, though the speculation is fun.

[Jayaris]

I'm leaning toward Mance as well, but as you say there are obstacles there also. Speaking for myself, there isn't enough info to solve this problem now, though the speculation is fun.

Where does Mance get a raven from though, his cover is surely blown in Winterfell. He had ample opportunity to escape, so he could of possibly infiltrated Mors Umber's camp (if he even has ravens) or Stannis' camp.

Stannis has two ravens and the third raven was said by the Maester to be a 'map' that he sent to Winterfell - Maybe that was actually Mance's letter? (Can't see him getting at the other two)

Alternately, throughout the entire 'Arya' rescue Mance is absent, he might of took that opportunity to send the letter from Winterfell (on orders from Melisandre)

If he infiltrated Mors' camp and they had Ravens and Pink Wax he should be fine.

Obviously Ramsay is the simplest solution, but honestly the only way I could believe it is if he had Mance help him write the letter. Otherwise I can't see the aggrandizement of the 'King Beyond the Wall' being included..

Stannis is desperate, but I don't think his principles would ever let him send the letter.

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

Just re-read Rattleshirt's death and it seemed like he tried even saying I'm not the king, then one of the knights chokes him off.

I agree, how easy would Mance give up info when tortured and he has proven himself to be a good fighter (battling Jon as Rattleshirt).

We are only saying Mance has been caught because its in the letter, a spear wife would be able to give that info up, would Ramsay miss an opportunity to send a finger? He did when he sent Theon's to Roose & Robb.

I als think (though I'm not there in my re-read yet) Stannis is looking into the flames often, he may be able to witness visions at this point and Melisandra definitely does. So that could explain the missing piece that ties the info together w/out the POV needing to be a witness to all aspects.

If its Mance, I think Melisandra has laid some plans on him as well. I don't think she can contact or control his actions from the ruby. Maybe its in Melisandra's POV but she doesn't react painfully to Rattleshirt being burned or skewered w/ arrows in Jon's POV.

I have been enjoying AFFC & DwD way more the second time around!

[bemused]

Yikes! where to start.. Mance shows no sign of wearing Mel's ruby at WF ( and believing his son was within Mel's reach would probably be enough to keep him in line , anyway. ) The ruby seems to be an aide in maintaining the glamour, not any other kind of control.

Rattle shirt may not have had any idea that he was glamoured ( Mance wore a ruby , but then , he was in close contact with lots of people on a daily , ongoing basis.. Rattleshirt " Mance" was seen at a distance by most, and on only one occasion )..Or he might have gone along with the masquerade , but had no idea Mance was to be executed.

Stannis' motives in sending the letter would be to warn Jon , if Ramsay was on the way , to inform him that Arya was free and on her way , and after finding out that there are more wildlings south of the wall , to try to get some reinforcements. ( and if he's letting people think he's dead for strategic purposes, to get Jon to tell Mel , so she can debunk the report on the QT)

Stannis' "principles" are a sometime thing and what there are of them , stem from his sense of Justice .. which is greatly influenced by what's right and fair for HIM ,the aggrieved party who ought to be on the throne.

[bloodymime]

Knowing Ramsay, he does not strike me as the diplomatic type... nor the kind of man who would even try to solve his problems with a letter if he could do so with force of arms. From this, we must deduce that for whatever reason Ramsay is unable to make the two day ride to Castle Black for an easy victory. Everyone is aware that Castle Black is highly vulnerable from the South, especially in the North.

Sorry, where do you get this two day ride to Castle Black from? In one of Tyrion's first pov's a small hard riding party with plenty of remounts have travelled for eighteen days from Winterfell without even coming in sight of the Wall.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

Yikes! where to start.. Mance shows no sign of wearing Mel's ruby at WF ( and believing his son was within Mel's reach would probably be enough to keep him in line , anyway. ) The ruby seems to be an aide in maintaining the glamour, not any other kind of control.

Maybe. Mance does remark on how easy it would be to pry out the gem, even if it means his death...but concludes by saying that he never does. Melisandre knew Mance would be travelling a long way from Castle Black and she knew (even if Mance didn't) how vague her visions could be. Even if he wasn't under the disguising glamour, it seems the gem provides a way for Melisandre to remain in contact with him.

And is Mance's son that sure a hold on him, or is that something Melisandre just tells Jon? Mance himself doesn't seem to care much whether he lives or dies, even though he must know his death will put his son at the top of Mel's "flammable guy with kingsblood" list.

Rattle shirt may not have had any idea that he was glamoured ( Mance wore a ruby , but then , he was in close contact with lots of people on a daily , ongoing basis.. Rattleshirt " Mance" was seen at a distance by most, and on only one occasion )..Or he might have gone along with the masquerade , but had no idea Mance was to be executed.

Note that Mel's ruby seems to be physically synchronized in some way with Mance's - it pulses and grows warmer as Mance's ruby comes closer to it. Since her ruby grew painfully hot when Rattleshirt burned, that seems to indicate strongly that he also wore a "slave" ruby, as Melisandre's chapter puts it.

As for Rattleshirt not knowing that everyone saw him as Mance or going along with it deliberately - either possibility poses some real difficulties. Stannis claimed he'd spoken to Mance after his capture - if this was really Rattleshirt, the fact that Stannis was addressing him as Mance surely should have provided him with a clue. And if the exchange and glamour took place later, surely the fact that Rattleshirt was deprived of his freedom and was now being referred to as Mance should have tipped him off. And even more difficult to believe he went along with the ruse deliberately - he must have known he would face a far worse fate as Mance than as Rattleshirt.

Stannis' motives in sending the letter would be to warn Jon , if Ramsay was on the way , to inform him that Arya was free and on her way , and after finding out that there are more wildlings south of the wall , to try to get some reinforcements. ( and if he's letting people think he's dead for strategic purposes, to get Jon to tell Mel , so she can debunk the report on the QT)

But why not simply provide the info as you stated it? Even if he wished to be thought dead, why not simply use the name of one of his knights or lords? Such an elaborate pack of untruths is far too susceptible to all sorts of unintended consequences, and that's pretty much what resulted.