THE BASTARD'S LETTER

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

Sorry, where do you get this two day ride to Castle Black from? In one of Tyrion's first pov's a small hard riding party with plenty of remounts have travelled for eighteen days from Winterfell without even coming in sight of the Wall.

I think the information for that thought came from the series. Information overlaps from time to time. Perhaps I erred.

When Tyrion rode north, not only did he go with Benjen & Jon & his guards.... he was also with Yoren and his recent 'recruits'... rapers... I doubt that rapers were given their own mounts. Tyrion could change his horse every other hour and it wouldn't change the fact that they were moving as fast as a cart can roll.

All the same... add a few more days of hard riding for Ramsay. My point with that paragraph was not that Ramsay wrote the letter... the content settles that.... but that he was in extremis. If he had the ability to take what he wanted by force, rather than write a letter, he would take it by force. I was merely pointing out that he couldn't have beaten Stannis. If he had, (beside the fact that he would already have his Reek) he would've continued on to Castle Black if he thought anything of 'his' was being held there. I don't discount the weather as a possible deterrant to his marching on Castle Black. I'm not sure what the source of his current difficulties.... but that he is having SERIOUS difficulties.

We know Ramsay has had 'access' to at least one of the spearwives...one of the wounded ones at the VERY least... and it's not a stretch to think he has access to Mance. Information in the letter could've been gleaned from any of them.

[bemused]

BoldAsYouPLease... If Mance pried out the gem, I don't think his death would be automatic..rather , without the glamour ,as himself , he would be subject to execution as a deserter from the Watch, which was the reason Stannis gave for executing him in the first place.

He hasn't been allowed to see Val or the baby . As Val tells Jon , she is sure Mel knows about the baby switch and that to know , yet do nothing about it must suit some purpose Mel has... If that's true , Mel's major purpose could be to ensure Mance's good behavior.

I don't think it's right to assume Mance didn't care about his son ( Judging by the way he treated Dalla , I'd assume he did .. and considering his own fatherless childhood , he might not be so nonchalant about fatherhood ) . I even think it's likely that his son's life was a major motivating factor in his agreeing to live under the glamour.. to try to be around and protect the baby , as much as he could ... Mance knew the baby would have no particular status among the wildlings ,and would be no more than fodder for Mel's fires , to his captors.

I have to think that Stannis is aware of the glamour. For Mel to conceal that from him just seems a step too far to me ( even for Mel ). And I'm quite sure Stannis did talk to the real Mance, probably multiple times ( as he did with Jon )...It doesn't seem possible that Mel would have got to both Mance and Rattleshirt and have the time to talk them into the glamour , before Stannis would want to interrogate the leader he defeated.

We don't know the fine details of how Mel's ruby works..it pulses and glows very often ( but usually when she's putting energy into something ) Oh, I think it's possible that the glamoured Rattleshirt could have had one, I'm just not 100% certain.( Perhaps her own ruby and putting some article of Mance's on Rattleshirt would be enough ) ... Her ruby pulses when she's conductiing ceremonies , it pulses when she speaks the word that Jon and Mance hear differently..there are numerous pulsings and glowings throughout the books.

With Mel's speaking trick , Rattleshirt could have heard his own name no matter what they called him up until the moment of his execution ... I tend to think he was unaware of the glamour ...I only say it's possible he was aware , and just thought that as Mance, he'd have to publicly bend the knee or something .

There has been speculation that the ruby in the pommel of Stannis' Lightbringer is how Mel causes it to flame. This makes a lot of sense ... but if it's true , it sure doesn't help her to communicate with , or even keep track of Stannis long distance. So I don't think she'd be in a position to know much about Mance's situation , even if Mance had his ruby. ( However , I do think if he had it with him , he might be able to revert to Rattleshirt's appearance to avoid capture in WF )

As to Stannis ...as I said upthread , if he has sent the letter ..it would mean that he's taking a chance that one of the Dreadfort maester's ravens mentioned in the gift chapter can fly to the wall ( maybe they start screaming Jon Snow and The Wall ...maybe something else happens at the weirwood that makes him decide it's worth the risk ) , but he wouldn't be able to be absolutely certain , so if there's a chance the bird would go to Winterfell, he'd want to not only disguise the author , but make it specifically seem like the kind of thing Ramsay would send . If Stannis has been defeated , so have his forces , and none of his own men would be allowed access to the ravens.... Even if someone might think that one of his own knights managed to send a bird off before being taken , Stannis couldn't spell things out clearly in case the bird flew to Roose... But if Roose thought Stannis was defeated and Ramsay wrote the letter , there's even a remote chance he'd relay it on to the Wall.

It's true , it would be an act of desperation , but Stannis has been desperate for some time.. He'd be very aware that there could be unintended consequences ( but if you read the letter putting yourself in his shoes , you can imagine where he possibly tried to minimize potential damage ). And desperate as he is , some chance of success would seem better than no chance at all.

Ramsay still may be the likeliest writer, but I think the Stannis scenario is plausible enough that we shouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

BoldAsYouPLease... If Mance pried out the gem, I don't think his death would be automatic..rather , without the glamour ,as himself , he would be subject to execution as a deserter from the Watch, which was the reason Stannis gave for executing him in the first place.

Right, this was what I meant as well - Melisandre tells Mance just this in the chapter.

As to Stannis ...as I said upthread , if he has sent the letter ..it would mean that he's taking a chance that one of the Dreadfort maester's ravens mentioned in the gift chapter can fly to the wall ( maybe they start screaming Jon Snow and The Wall ...maybe something else happens at the weirwood that makes him decide it's worth the risk ) , but he wouldn't be able to be absolutely certain , so if there's a chance the bird would go to Winterfell, he'd want to not only disguise the author , but make it specifically seem like the kind of thing Ramsay would send . If Stannis has been defeated , so have his forces , and none of his own men would be allowed access to the ravens.... Even if someone might think that one of his own knights managed to send a bird off before being taken , Stannis couldn't spell things out clearly in case the bird flew to Roose... But if Roose thought Stannis was defeated and Ramsay wrote the letter , there's even a remote chance he'd relay it on to the Wall. It's true , it would be an act of desperation , but Stannis has been desperate for some time..

Interesting - but why the need for the insults and threats? If the letter was supposedly intended for Roose by Ramsay, wouldn't Stannis have written it as a straightforward status report? That way, it would still give Jon the views and info Stannis wanted him to have without provoking Jon into any rash action. For that matter, Stannis could have written it as a letter from Arnolf Karstark to Jon, telling him that Stannis and his army were destroyed and demanding the return of Alys Karstark - something that almost certainly wouldn't have gotten the same reaction from Jon.

To me, the letter seems specifically intended to provoke Jon into leaving the Wall and breaking his vow by someone who intimately understands his psyche (his prickly sense of honor, his resentment over his bastardy, his love for Arya - all points hit in the letter). Theon has the requisite understanding of Jon and between him and Stannis, every item in the letter can be sourced. But again, the letter seems designed to provoke Jon and I still don't see a reason for Stannis to do that.

But Melisandre also has a very good read on Jon - she reflects on his nature in-depth in her chapter. Mance sets out from Winterfell as her agent, and he himself has spent time with Jon. There's not a single item in the letter he wouldn't be aware of. My inclination is Mance-the-letter-writer, either working in his own interest or in Melisandre's (if, as I speculated, he's under her control). Both could have plausible reasons for wanting to push Jon past his breaking point, throwing the NW into chaos - Mance perhaps to launch some wildling uprising at the Wall, Mel to bring Jon to a crisis point so he will turn to her as Stannis did.

[fassreiter]

As for Rattleshirt not knowing that everyone saw him as Mance or going along with it deliberately - either possibility poses some real difficulties. Stannis claimed he'd spoken to Mance after his capture - if this was really Rattleshirt, the fact that Stannis was addressing him as Mance surely should have provided him with a clue. And if the exchange and glamour took place later, surely the fact that Rattleshirt was deprived of his freedom and was now being referred to as Mance should have tipped him off. And even more difficult to believe he went along with the ruse deliberately - he must have known he would face a far worse fate as Mance than as Rattleshirt.

Concerning the Rattleshirt-switch, I found that hard to explain, too, as to why he would agree to do such a thing. I came up with two possible explanations: First, he was under some kind of mind-bending spell that broke when he saw the cage. Second, he was aware of his appearance all the time and under the impression that he was going to be pardoned, as Mance, in some sort of publicly announced amnesty. I think this is far more plausible, because Rattleshirt seems to be very aware of his Mance-look, and even trying to imitate his persona, like smiling on his way to his execution. That doesn't strike me as the kind of behaviour Rattleshirt would ever do on his own account. And it's specifically stated that he has long hair which he has to push away because of the wind blowing it into his eyes or something, so Rattleshirt - who doesn't have long hair - would have definitely noticed something is off here, right? On a re-read, I came to think he very deliberately acted in a way he thought Mance would do. So why would he do that? The fact that he went along with the whole glamor just fine and changed his opinion when he saw the cage is telling, in my opinion. Furthermore, he explicitly says "this is wrong" and that he is NOT the king, and that he was betrayed. So I think Mel made a deal with him, offering him the Mance-persona as a lasting change, combined with a general amnesty. So he would bend the knee to Stannis, but gain the leadership among his people (plus, some front teeth) and maybe a castle on the Wall or whatever. Mel might have told him the original Mance wasn't going to cooperate (something Stannis did indeed confirm, twice in fact), so they needed some stand-in. Mance also told Melisandre that no one in his right mind would trust Rattleshirt. This might indeed have been what changed his mind about cooperating with Stannis. The wildlings being under the leadership of Rattleshirt would be about as bad as under the Weeper, I guess.

Concerning the ruby and the letter, from Theon's perspective Mance doesn't look like Rattleshirt, so I don't think he is glamored anymore. I also don't believe the ruby has or had any kind of control over him, because when he is still at Castle Black wearing the ruby, he does all kind of things that annoy Melisandre and she specifically mentions to her self that she would have seen it in her fires if he planned to kill her, so if the Ruby would control him anyway, none of these things would make sense.

The most plausible explanation for the letter is that Ramsay wrote it after torturing one of the spearwives, with most of its content being lies.

[bemused]

:D BoldAsYouPlease..I think I haven't made myself quite clear...( been known to happen )

If Stannis wrote the letter, it's intended to read as being to Jon from Ramsay..but because he's not 100% sure the raven will go to the wall , if it contains the threats and insults ( and exaggerations ) but announces victory as well, there's even a small outside chance Roose would forward it to Jon... If it was sent to Roose just as a status report, that would be as far as it would go, for sure..

If the raven was seen not to be flying directly toward WF, Stannis still has another raven at his disposal , that he might be able to trust with a more straightforward message.

I think Stannis would want to rouse Jon to action. Ramsay does pose a very real threat to the Night's Watch ( and Stannis' own people at the wall ), and it's this that Stannis expects Jon to react to... I don't think Stannis sees Jon at all as you describe. He's seen him behave in a very restrained manner when the first " Arya " letter arrived. He's seen Jon's tactical abilities firsthand, when Jon advised him on his campaign. He's seen him deal with insults to his honour without reacting rashly. He's seen him put the common good before his own promotion ... On top of this Stannis now knows about Tormund's wildlings and knows that Jon has more men at his disposal. Stannis would not think that Jon leading men to "head Ramsay off at the pass" would constitute vow breaking. He couldn't foresee Bowen's betrayal or the situation with Wun-Wun.

Inventing some story about the Karstarks would not let Jon know that his sister was at least out of Bolton clutches

, but that Ramsay was in pursuit...and I'm sure Stannis hopes Jon can find a way to send him some relief , once he deals with the immediate threat from Ramsay.

fassreiter..yeah, it does seem that Rattleshirt knows, but wasn't expecting execution , doesn't it ? ..must re-read.

[esterosi]

If the letter isn't from Ramsay himself, I think it's most likely it's from Stannis with Theon being coerced into helping him.

Finishing with a demand for Reek suggests it's written either by Ramsay, Roose or Theon, someone who knows about Ramsay and Reek.

Mance as Abel would also have such knowledge. However, ravens are only trained to fly between two forts to another as is outlined in the last chapter of ADWD. How would Mance get hold of a raven which knew to fly to the Wall in Winterfell and know it was the right raven? It makes no sense. However, Stannis has just come from the Wall and his wife and Mel are there. Presumably he would have such ravens.

Also, Mance is not stupid. Does he really think Snow would simply send Val and his child to Winterfell? Mance would need an ulterior motive in sending the letter and considering that Jon is the only person who could save the freezing wildlings on the coast, calling him away from the wall would probably be the last thing on his mind.

Stannis on the other hand has an excellent motive. His army is in a desperate condition. He needs Jon by his side to persuade the Northerners to switch loyalties. He tried to persuade Jon earlier to give him more men, but Jon told him he could not, he would have to use the mountain tribesmen instead. By goading Jon into leaving the wall, he strengthens his army and has a Stark to convince people to turn cloaks.

Is such cunning out of character for Stannis? Yes. But not for Theon Greyjoy. In the WOW chapter, Theon is in chains and has given Stannis some information. No doubt Stannis has interrogated him for advice on how to take Winterfell. Theon thinks on how he took Winterfell the first time earlier in ADWD when Abel's women ask him. He must already have realized a repeat with grappling hooks is impossible with the state Stannis army is in. So what if he suggests a ploy to Stannis to get Stark running down to help, knowing both Ramsay and Jon well and goading Jon where it hurts?

To back up this theory, Stannis is planning to fortify the ruins he is living in. It seems he is for holding out rather than storming Winterfell. Holding out for what? He must know he has less supplies and protection than the Boltons and it would be best if he struck sooner. Unless he is waiting for Jon to cover the 300 leagues from the Wall to Winterfell.

[esterosi]

:. fassreiter..yeah, it does seem that Rattleshirt knows, but wasn't expecting execution , doesn't it ? ..must re-read.

It could be Melissandre controlled him via the ruby, or told him something like he "would not taste death in the flames", she had forseen it. This would be true because he was killed by the Night's Watch arrows, not the flames.

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

While none of us can be 100% certain until TWoW is released... I concede that Stannis would benefit from Jon marching South, but sneaky misdirecting letters and subterfuge does not match up with Stannis. If Stannis wrote a letter to Jon, I think it would read something like

"Your king is in peril and requires your assistance in removing Bolton from Winterfell. Come alone if your vows demand such."

I don't think that Stannis 'wouldn't' write the letter... I don't think Stannis is capable of writing the letter.

[esterosi]

While none of us can be 100% certain until TWoW is released... I concede that Stannis would benefit from Jon marching South, but sneaky misdirecting letters and subterfuge does not match up with Stannis. If Stannis wrote a letter to Jon, I think it would read something like "Your king is in peril and requires your assistance in removing Bolton from Winterfell. Come alone if your vows demand such." I don't think that Stannis 'wouldn't' write the letter... I don't think Stannis is capable of writing the letter.

Which is why I suggested Theon masterminded the actual writing and idea of sending it.

Stannis is a straight-arrow, but he's not stupid. He reminds me a bit of Barristan Selmy who, when the chips out down, lets Skahaz scheme on his behalf.

Stannis must realize from Theon that he is outnumbered and outequipped by Bolton's forces and that he must use cunning to win. It's possible that Melissandre would request him to follow Theon's advice through the fires if he proved hesitant. He may be a straight-arrow, but his piety is stronger than his honour.

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

If Stannis gains the Manderly's and defeats the Freys.... then his military situation becomes far more tenable.

Yes, Melisandre could've sent Stannis a message in his fires...I suppose any number of things could've happened. The last we saw of Melisandre, however, she could only see snow (or Snow with a capital S) when she sought out Azor Ahai (Stannis?) in her fires.

IF Mel had a vision, and IF she sent Stannis a message in the fire (do we have any prior instances of her communicating with people via Fire messages? None come to mind...), and IF that message was 'send a misleading raven-mail message to Jon', and IF Stannis complied, then yes, it could have been Stannis who sent the raven.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

:D BoldAsYouPlease..I think I haven't made myself quite clear...( been known to happen ) If Stannis wrote the letter, it's intended to read as being to Jon from Ramsay..but because he's not 100% sure the raven will go to the wall , if it contains the threats and insults ( and exaggerations ) but announces victory as well, there's even a small outside chance Roose would forward it to Jon... If it was sent to Roose just as a status report, that would be as far as it would go, for sure.. If the raven was seen not to be flying directly toward WF, Stannis still has another raven at his disposal , that he might be able to trust with a more straightforward message.

Right, I got this part.

I think Stannis would want to rouse Jon to action. Ramsay does pose a very real threat to the Night's Watch ( and Stannis' own people at the wall ), and it's this that Stannis expects Jon to react to...

But this part I don't get. Yes, the Boltons are a threat to Stannis, but he's not at the Wall right now and they know it. What threat does Ramsay pose to the NW?

I don't think Stannis sees Jon at all as you describe.

Nor do I - my belief is that Theon, Mel and Mance have the kind of read on Jon that would enable the pushing of his buttons that we saw in the letter.

Stannis would not think that Jon leading men to "head Ramsay off at the pass" would constitute vow breaking. He couldn't foresee Bowen's betrayal or the situation with Wun-Wun. Inventing some story about the Karstarks would not let Jon know that his sister was at least out of Bolton clutches , but that Ramsay was in pursuit...and I'm sure Stannis hopes Jon can find a way to send him some relief , once he deals with the immediate threat from Ramsay

It's an interesting theory, but it never occurred to me that this was what you meant because I can't conceive of Stannis doing this. Stannis is one of the very few men in the realm who actually understands that there is an impending, non-human and deadly serious threat from beyond the Wall. It was his reason for coming north and for bringing the wildlings south of the Wall. Stannis realizes and acknowledges Jon's reasoning in using the wildlings to man the Wall - it's critically under-manned. I can't see him trying to suborn Jon and the entire NW from their defense of the Wall to fight in his personal war. News of the NW and/or the wildings from an already under-manned Wall joining Stannis' war against the Boltons would mean the effective end of the NW as a force dedicated to guarding the Wall and would guarantee not only the Bolton threat to the NW you mentioned before, but also a declaration of war on the NW by every other contender for the throne. And Stannis knows it.

In the time he's been at the Wall, Stannis has demanded that Jon provide him with gear, the empty castles along the Wall, and the Gift. He's offered to legitimize Jon and make him Lord of Winterfell. He's taken Jon's counsel to raise troops among the petty lords of the northern hills. But Stannis has never asked Jon as LC to raise forces for him or to join the NW to Stannis' war for the Iron Throne. He did not ask the NW to join him in his initial plan to march on the Dreadfort, or in his eventual march on Deepwood Motte. Stannis is clearly a man willing to bend his principles - but this isn't bending so much as completely abandoning. Not saying it's not possible or won't turn out this way, but it would seem very inconsistent to me.

[bemused]

Stannis is far less "straight arrow" by this time, than he was when he started. He quickly adjusted to using deception, and whatever help was at hand ( see Mel ) to gain what is " rightfully " his.

The main thing is , he does listen ...and he's capable of recognizing the value in other people's suggestions.

Furthermore , in the gift chapter, we already see him formulating some sort of involved and deceptive plan in his instructions to Justin Massey , and in his statement that he holds the ground...He's also open to adjusting his plans as he goes . Depending on what might happen , for example, at the Weirwood , the plan he's hatching might undergo some alteration .

I don't think any information/ instructions from Mel could reach him through the flames..or else both of them would have known more about their respective situations than they have to this point.

I also think he's less pious than he may seem.. the sacrifice at his camp was more a sop to his fanatic men, who'd been clamoring for one , than proof of his piety. He's OK with the appearance of piety when it's politically expedient. ( Unlike Lancel who has truly "found religion ")

esterosi..I don't think Theon is in a fit mental state to be masterminding anything ..and his masterminding on his own behalf didn't work out too well in the past. But I do think that Stannis could get a very good idea from him just how Ramsay would sound ..and from Asha , who has recieved a nasty letter from Ramsay herself.

BoldAsYouPlease ... Stannis knows Jon's buttons are not that easy to push , but he also knows that people try to push them all the time ...;). Someone like Ramsay surely would.

Stannis is not at the wall , but his wife , daughter ( and heir) and Mel are. I'm sure he wouldn't want them captured or killed by Ramsay and his forces.

The threat to the NW lies in the fact that there are no defences on the south side of Castle Black. Ramsay wouldn't hold back from killing Night's Watch brothers in trying to get to Jon , "Arya" , or any useful hostages. . If Ramsay is on his way in pursuit of "Arya" , without the warning letter ,those at the wall would be sitting ducks . There could be devastating loss of life , and the possibility that CB itself would be destroyed. Stannis knows Jon has many more wildlings than when he left the wall , but he knows from his own experience how vulnerable the wildlings are to surprise attack. They're not an army.... Stannis would know that the wall's best defence would be having some forewarning and the chance to move to meet the threat on open ground. ( Whoever wrote the letter , Jon understands this perfectly . He doesn't leave the sheildhall thinking "On to Winterfell and Stannis " , he's thinking of getting Mel to look in her flames and try to locate Ramsay)

I don't think Stannis would try to get Jon to commit the Night's Watch to his cause. He knows Jon won't. But Jon did give him guides to get him to the Northern clans. He gave Tycho a couple of guides to get him to Stannis. Stannis may hope Jon can send a couple of guides to get some wildlings bearing food and supplies to his forces ... and he may hope for some fighters ( at this point , he'll take what he can get ). ..Even from the captives he took at the Battle of the Wall , some wildlings agreed to join him on his campaign. Now , with 3000 plus additional wildlings through the wall , he may hope that a few more might follow suit.

So I guess what it boils down to is , after reading the Theon chapter.. it would, logistically, be possible for Stannis to have sent the letter. If he did send it it's because Ramsay is actually on his way after "Arya" ... and if Ramsay doesn't ctach her before she gets to the wall , not only "Arya" , but everyone at the wall and all the preparatory work they've done is at risk.

[StannisandDaeny]

Has anyone mentioned Manderly as a possible author? He would want to lure more enemies of Ramsay towards Winterfell. He's also proven himself to be rather cunning. With the impending arrival of Davos Seaworth (bringing Bran along) Manderly could use someone who wouldn't be doubted to testify Bran is Bran. Stating Winterfell needs help will not rally the Night's Watch because it would break their vows, but making it seem like Ramsay is a threat to the Night's Watch could rally them because they should at least be allowed to defend themselves. The pink smear of wax is what intrigues me - I would expect a smear *and* a stamp if it came from Ramsay, the smear seems to indicate it was done hastily, perhaps Manderly was discovered while he was sending it? Also the letter makes Ramsay a confessed criminal (not that he wasn't already) for threatening the Night's Watch and he'd have a hard time to prove he didn't write it with his reputation so that even if it didn't serve its original intent it would severely weaken his claims and authority later on.

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

If Stannis wrote the letter it would say.

"Dear LC Snow,

Ramsay is en route with all his strength. Defend yourself accordingly. Use my men, keep the Queen, Shireen & Melisandre as safe as you can. Look for Justin Massey and a small party, who are bringing your sister to you.

In haste,

Stannis, First of his name, titles titles titles"

It wouldn't be some silliness with a pink wax seal.

[bemused]

That would be if Stannis could be sure , before sending off the raven, that it wouldn't go to Roose at Winterfell .

You seem to be missing the point, Sword of Mid Afternoon . No-one says that Stannis is the most likely candidate . I started this by saying that after reading Theon's WoW chapter a way becomes apparent that it could plausibly be him..whereas, before reading the chapter , I would have ruled him out , flat.

I think Stannis is a little more clever than to use your suggested text . Just in case it fell into the wrong hands.

Stannis had no maester with him and apparently , no ravens ( they probably would have frozen by now , anyway ) He sent Jon one raven ( from Deepwood Motte , I think )..and that's it. The only birds he could possibly have ( that we know of ) are Tybald's 2 Winterfell ravens.

The thing is , GRRM has not yet given us enough information to be able to identify the sender absolutely, with no questionable problem areas or puzzles..not even Ramsay. That's the way he constructed it...Maybe he'll release a Mance, or Manderly, or Roose chapter that would open some possibilities for Mance..or something that makes Ramsay even more likely than he already is.( Who knows ? GRRM is God , in this. He can do anything at all. ) In the meantime , I think we should keep an open mind .

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

The Rattleshirt business:

"The wildling king recoiled from the sight."No," he cried, "mercy. This is not right, I'm not the king, they-" Ser Godry gave a pull on the rope. The King-Beyond-the-Wall had no choice but to stumble after him, the rope choking off his words.""

pg135 hard cover DwD

Rattleshirt knows whats going on, but after that he falls & Melisandra starts bellowing to the Free Folk, they stick him in the cage and NW fill him w/ arrows.

I don't think its important to the overall scheme of anything, and all they had to tell him is - we are going to keep you around, but as Mance, then when he sees he is about to be burnt he freaks out.

I doubt the rubies are going to show any different powers that we haven't witnessed yet, though the users of magic don't seem to know how it works, not completely, I don't see that as leaving a door open to have those things grow into bigger powers than what Mel expressed Mance dies if he removes it. That controls him, sure Melisandra may have worked other layers into it using the child, or his people etc.

I don't think its a night watch oath type of death. Who would know to kill him, or about the ruby, except her, Jon & maybe Stannis.

As for Stannis, though I agree his personality doesn't pull things like the letter, I think he is following the belief he is AA reborn and fulfilling prophecies and will do anything (like burn babies) to complete them. There is no way Stannis knows enough about him to imitate Ramsay (he is also not creative), but Theon could for him, this only happens if Stannis foresaw something in the flames or Melisandra did and set it in motion earlier.

I haven't re-read these sections yet, but Stannis stating "he might appear dead" and the chapter where they describe the ravens going to specific places, both seem to be important. Why would GRRM bring the raven postal service rules, unless it were to be used in the story somehow, and why would he have Stannis say "I might appear dead" to then kill him and just be done w/ it.

As for Ramsay, if its him, he isn't trying to necessarily goad Jon from the Wall, he never suggests that, just send back Reek/Arya, Stannis crew, insults and I'll let you see Mance alive again.

Reading the Reek chapters with Roose certainly affirm Ramsay is capable of loosing his cool and writing that letter - but as per my earlier post, Roose is either not around or dead. Either Ramsay wrote it or Roose is using Ramsay as a trick or scape goat as he was using Theon Turncloak to blame for killing Bran & Rickon and sacking/burning Winterfell. In that chapter he insults Ramsay for wanting to make a pair of inferior (human skin) boots out of Lady Dustin, which would lose him 3 families (who support Bolton because they blame Ned for Lady Dustin's husband) Roose is playing the Game, Ramsay not so much.

- In DwD Ramsay seems uncontrollable, not very savvy and not a planner. In his Reek days, to me, he was completely deceptive and calculating. I'm trying to decide if the DwD Ramsay is his true personality or Theon's unreliable & crazy view of Ramsay at this point (to me this is a major possibility, Ramsay is only available in Theon's POVs, and Reek walks around anticipating the next possible Ramsay messing w/ him moment, he could exaggerate Ramsay's over the top-ness, making the letter possibly his imitation of Ramsay), maybe a writing flaw, a transformation caused by his power growth, different layers of his personality or Ramsey's way of keeping people off his scent.

[bemused]

Stannis executed "Mance" for deserting the Night's Watch.

My understanding of the ruby business is that if Mance removes it the glamour will cease . Then it would be obvious to anyone that he was Mance , not Rattleshirt , and he could be executed as a deserter for real. The leverage his son's life provides is the same as for any parent..purely emotional , not magical. The baby is a hostage for his good behaviour.

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

The author of the letter was either Ramsay or someone who knew Ramsay long enough and intimately enough to mimic his vocabulary, sentence structure and idiosyncracies perfectly. That could only come from long term private interaction with Ramsay. I'd say only his 'boys' and perhaps Theon (if Theon's brain wasn't broken, which it is, would be capable of such a perfect mimickry. The Bastards Boys don't strike me as the letter writing type, and I don't think Theon has had an opportunity to gather the materials and the raven to write and send a letter via raven... Not to mention the fact that his fingers are missing. Don't know if he can even write anymore.

Stannis would've had to have dedicated a tremendous amount of time getting to know Ramsay and the way he speaks & acts in private. Even if Stannis captured Ramsay, their brief interaction would not be sufficient for Stannis to create such a perfect facsimile.

My point is that even if Stannis wanted to write the letter, he lacks the ability/knowledge to do so.

[bemused]

But the letter is not a perfect facsimile of Ramsay's style... it's quite clearly implied that it's not written in blood ( Tormund's observation about maester's ink ), Ramsay's very distinctive hand is not mentioned . If it comes from Stannis' camp ,there was a maester there to take dictation from Stannis , Theon , or whoever.

Theon knows Ramsay well , Asha has recieved a sickening missive from Ramsay, added in his own hand to the notice of Roose's return and the impending marriage , and the maester is a Dreadfort maester , too terrified to not co-operate ( He has witnessed one sacrifice, already ).With these resources , I can't see how it would be so difficult to approximate Ramsay's verbal style. It seems mainly to consist of self agrandisement and threats.There's no odd language usage ( like verb placement , e.g.) peculiar to him alone.( How often has Tybald spoken to Ramsay ? How many of his letters has he sent ? )

If Ramsay had written from Winterfell , we might reasonably have expected his "huge , spikey hand " in blood and a scrap or two of spearwife. So although it sounds like him, I don't think we can identify him absolutely.

[StannisandDaeny]

So it could still be Wyman. I say it was Wyman with the quill in the rookery.