Why Renly Rebelled?

[danm_999]

What popular uprising? Few of the most powerful lords were unhappy and rebelled. The smallfolk didn't give a damn. Not much different from what Renly and the Tyrells did.

From memory Aerys II demanded that Jon Arryn hand over Bob Baratheon and The Ned following on from Brandon Stark calling for Rhaegar to come out and die, Arryn refused. The Arryn, Baratheon and Stark lords cal out their banners and cash in on their Tully marriage alliances. There was no popular rebellion against misrule - it was a punch up among the ruling class over who got to sleep with Lyanna Stark.

After he'd burnt Rickard and Brandon Stark, amongst others, alive in front of his court. We know small folk did hide Robert during the Battle of the Bells however, and Aerys was known widely as 'the Mad King'. They loved Rhaegar, but since Duskendale, Aerys was unpopular.

No, the small folk didn't care about the Game of Thrones everywhere (though I don't imagine they'd have been thrilled to see Aerys planned to set King's Landing alight) but every major family and all their bannermen (few exceptions obviously, houses like the Frey's) except the Tyrells and Martells rose up against the Targaryens.

[Lummel]

...No, the small folk didn't care about the Game of Thrones everywhere...

Exactly, agreed. That's a big theme in the books, the suffering that is imposed on people because of some noble's ideas about honour or status, so it's good to be careful in using the word popular.

[danm_999]

Exactly, agreed. That's a big theme in the books, the suffering that is imposed on people because of some noble's ideas about honour or status, so it's good to be careful in using the word popular.

That's a valid semantics debate, my point was that Aerys (unlike Rhaegar or Robert) did not have the same support since he was viewed as, well, insane. And it was showing in his rule.

[Kate Poem]

Renly from his childhood loved to be in center of attention. ("Look at me, I am wizard"). He knew how to be liked and loved. What and how speak, how behave with other people. Many nobles, I think, saw in him young Robert's incarnation - no fat, drunk womanizer but charming knight.

I think Renly in some way idolized and loved Robert. We don't know, where Robert went to Vale and how long he was there, but I am partially sure after death of their parents little Renly was in Storm's End alone with Stannis and maester Cressen. I am partially sure teenager Stannis did everything what he can for his little brother, but - but his personality couldn't be aprreciated by children.

Maybe Renly saw Robert in himself too and...

Nevermind - I am sure Renly thought he is better than Stannis, because people loved him and he knew about it.

[Talleyrand]

Renly tried this shocking piece of logic in CoK. If Robert took the Throne by force, why shouldn't I?

Renly ignored that Robert took the throne because of a popular uprising against Targaryen misrule. Renly just decided he deserved to be next in line, based on his own megalomania.

Renly was against plenty of misrule. Joffrey kills his own starving peasants and is an all round sadistic bastard.

Stannis burns the religious idols of his people and kills them for protesting, breaks his word and to outsiders and even a bunch of his own men is the bitch of some foreign fanatic witch.

[Talleyrand]

After he'd burnt Rickard and Brandon Stark, amongst others, alive in front of his court. We know small folk did hide Robert during the Battle of the Bells however, and Aerys was known widely as 'the Mad King'. They loved Rhaegar, but since Duskendale, Aerys was unpopular.

No, the small folk didn't care about the Game of Thrones everywhere (though I don't imagine they'd have been thrilled to see Aerys planned to set King's Landing alight) but every major family and all their bannermen (few exceptions obviously, houses like the Frey's) except the Tyrells and Martells rose up against the Targaryens.

Many sided with the Targs. Jon had to lay siege to Gulltown after they refused to join his rebellion. House Darry and a bunch of others in the Riverlands were Loyalists. Robert's victories early on in the war were against his own bannermen. And I doubt many of the Lords sided with the rebels out of any particular wish to depose the Mad King but rather because it was their duty. Bolton has no love for Eddard yet he rose with the others when Robb called the banners because the Starks are his liege and he owes them his sword.

[danm_999]

Renly was against plenty of misrule. Joffrey kills his own starving peasants and is an all round sadistic bastard.

Stannis burns the religious idols of his people and kills them for protesting, breaks his word and to outsiders and even a bunch of his own men is the bitch of some foreign fanatic witch.

These would be compelling arguments if Renly had any idea Joffrey or Stannis were doing these things when he proclaimed himself a King. He didn't, so to say his claim meant he opposed them is wrong. Else I could say Balon Greyjoy was against misrule.

Renly wasn't even aware Joffrey was a bastard until Catelyn told him, so you can see the level of thought he put into his intelligence on his enemies.

[Lummel]

That's a valid semantics debate, my point was that Aerys (unlike Rhaegar or Robert) did not have the same support since he was viewed as, well, insane. And it was showing in his rule.

I don't think it is semantics - it's central to the series (not to say that semantics isn't important). Aerys was insane, but remember the old man that Arya meets in ACOK still widely loved, that insanity wasn't seen beyond the narrow circle of his court and the upper nobility.

It's the same with the war of the five kings, so far as the people are concerned all of them are a plague. It's one king and peace that is truly popular.

[danm_999]

Many sided with the Targs. Jon had to lay siege to Gulltown after they refused to join his rebellion. House Darry and a bunch of others in the Riverlands were Loyalists. Robert's victories early on in the war were against his own bannermen. And I doubt many of the Lords sided with the rebels out of any particular wish to depose the Mad King but rather because it was their duty. Bolton has no love for Eddard yet he rose with the others when Robb called the banners because the Starks are his liege and he owes them his sword.

In the Great Houses, apart from Tyrell and Martell, loyalists were holdouts and pretty quickly swept aside. The major battles of the war; the Trident, the Bells, Ashford, Summerhall, were all against enemy houses, not Baratheon/Stark/Tully Bannermen. Taking Gulltown is barely a footnote.

Now, I don't doubt that many people joined Robert not because they felt he'd be a more just king than Aerys, but my point was the majority of Lords, and from instances like the Bells, smallfolk, supported Robert in deposing Aerys because he wasn't fit for the job anymore.

[Talleyrand]

Right, but he lives in a world full of magic.

So once he made an enemy of Stannis, Stannis was always going to have Melisandre kill him. You're essentially saying that Renly would have succeeded if his opponents dissapeared.

One could as well say, without Jeyne Westerling, Robb would have won, or without the Faceless Men, Balon would have won.

Magic is seen as a myth by many in Westeros, its not been seen for generations and only just seems too be returning in force now.

No Renly would have won if it wasn't for a deus ex machina.

Not with Littlefinger around he wasn't.

How could Littlefinger stop it? Renly would have his 100 knights along with Ned's soldiers barricaded in the Red Keep. The Goldcloaks may outnumber them but they lack the skill and training of knights. Added to that not all of them will be up for an assault. Renly could feasibly hold out long enough for his closest bannermen to bring some men in support.

He didn't propose to Ned to make himself King. He proposed to seize Joffrey. If he did that, the realm was going to turn on HIM.

No they wouldn't. The North, Vale and Riverlands aren't going to go against him. The Lannisters would be the only ones who would really give a shit about it and they aren't going to win against the combined might of the Stormlands and the Reach, especially seeing as most of their manpower is currently tied up in the Riverlands.

[The Sleeper]

I don't think it is semantics - it's central to the series (not to say that semantics isn't important). Aerys was insane, but remember the old man that Arya meets in ACOK still widely loved, that insanity wasn't seen beyond the narrow circle of his court and the upper nobility.

It's the same with the war of the five kings, so far as the people are concerned all of them are a plague. It's one king and peace that is truly popular.

I have to agree with that and it is evident by how fast king Bread ruled alone during the riot at KL.

[Ferrous]

It wasn't the same as Robert.

Read through one of Ned's early chapters in A Game of Thrones (the one where he hears of Jon Arryn's death). The war started when Jon Arryn refused to turn over Ned and Robert to be executed.

Once the war started they realised that they had to remove Aerys and Robert had the best claim of any of the rebels.

[Talleyrand]

In the Great Houses, apart from Tyrell and Martell, loyalists were holdouts and pretty quickly swept aside. The major battles of the war; the Trident, the Bells, Ashford, Summerhall, were all against enemy houses, not Baratheon/Stark/Tully Bannermen. Taking Gulltown is barely a footnote.

Now, I don't doubt that many people joined Robert not because they felt he'd be a more just king than Aerys, but my point was the majority of Lords, and from instances like the Bells, smallfolk, supported Robert in deposing Aerys because he wasn't fit for the job anymore.

Summerhall was Robert fighting his own bannermen. At the Bells the Loyalists were being lead by a Baratheon bannerman.

Small folk and some lords sided with Robert for the same reason they sided with Daemon. He's a warrior, he's the ideal for their society that rather than bookish and small kings like Aerys and Daeron.

[danm_999]

I don't think it is semantics - it's central to the series (not to say that semantics isn't important). Aerys was insane, but remember the old man that Arya meets in ACOK still widely loved, that insanity wasn't seen beyond the narrow circle of his court and the upper nobility. It's the same with the war of the five kings, so far as the people are concerned all of them are a plague. It's one king and peace that is truly popular.

Yeah I understand the theme of how a war affects the smallfolk is very important, but my point is everything we know about Aerys (from both his enemies and former allies) contrasts him with Rhaegar and Robert's popularity. Smallfolk were aiding Robert during the war, and if anything, they wanted Rhaegar as King, not Aerys. Too bad he died.

Aerys was a recluse who burnt people because it aroused him, and began to look very creepy when he wouldn't cut his hair or fingernails.

[Talleyrand]

These would be compelling arguments if Renly had any idea Joffrey or Stannis were doing these things when he proclaimed himself a King. He didn't, so to say his claim meant he opposed them is wrong. Else I could say Balon Greyjoy was against misrule.

Renly wasn't even aware Joffrey was a bastard until Catelyn told him, so you can see the level of thought he put into his intelligence on his enemies.

I was using a different sense of the word bastard but nevermind.

[danm_999]

Magic is seen as a myth by many in Westeros, its not been seen for generations and only just seems too be returning in force now. No Renly would have won if it wasn't for a deus ex machina.

It doesn't matter how well known or understood magic is, Renly's enemies had it, so the point Renly would have won if not for his enemies is redundant.

How could Littlefinger stop it?

Same way he stopped Ned.

Renly would have his 100 knights along with Ned's soldiers barricaded in the Red Keep. The Goldcloaks may outnumber them but they lack the skill and training of knights.

There are thousands of Gold Cloaks. And Renly seems to disagree with you about his knight's chances against them because he ran remember? It's not like Ned and the paltry few guardsmen he had left were going to turn the battle.

Added to that not all of them will be up for an assault. Renly could feasibly hold out long enough for his closest bannermen to bring some men in support.

Your assertion contradicts Renly's judgement, he ran, he didn't try and hold out because he knew he couldn't. So either you're wrong, or Renly's judgement is poor.

No they wouldn't. The North, Vale and Riverlands aren't going to go against him. The Lannisters would be the only ones who would really give a shit about it and they aren't going to win against the combined might of the Stormlands and the Reach, especially seeing as most of their manpower is currently tied up in the Riverlands.

The King's uncle seizing the King? I think Renly would have one hell of a PR problem at that point. He might have had the Northmen, depending on how Ned chose, but you can bet he'd have no neutral support.

[danm_999]

Summerhall was Robert fighting his own bannermen.

Actually, you're right about this, so one major battle he did have to fight his bannerman.

At the Bells the Loyalists were being lead by a Baratheon bannerman.

Connington was Hand of the King, leading a Targaryen army and was a close friend (and some suspect he pined after him romantically) of Rhaegar. He's not really the rule, he's the exception.

Small folk and some lords sided with Robert for the same reason they sided with Daemon. He's a warrior, he's the ideal for their society that rather than bookish and small kings like Aerys and Daeron.

Pretty much. The small folk often show bad judgement at who deserves their hate; they blamed Tyrion for how crappy King's Landing was despite his strategy giving the city enough time for Tywin to rescue it.

[danm_999]

I was using a different sense of the word bastard but nevermind.

No, I understood that. My point was, at the time Renly fled, Joffrey hadn't done any of these things yet. Joffrey hadn't even been proclaimed King. They did not factor into Renly's decision to crown himself.

[Milcov]

So, essentially, if not his for enemies he'd be dominating Westeros?

Yes, you're probably right about that one.

If it wasn't for the closest thing to Deus ex machina in ASOIAF then yes. In fact by that point it pretty much is deus ex machina, Renly needed to be got rid off so magic was suddenly brought to Westeros where it wasn't before.

Renly tried this shocking piece of logic in CoK. If Robert took the Throne by force, why shouldn't I?

Renly ignored that Robert took the throne because of a popular uprising against Targaryen misrule. Renly just decided he deserved to be next in line, based on his own megalomania.

Popular uprising? And Renly seems convinced that he'd be the best King sincerely. Stannis would cause loads of rebellions with his attitude and harsh punishments, Joffrey had already caused a rebellion after Renly fled Kings Landing. Renly rightly decided he was the best King.

After he'd burnt Rickard and Brandon Stark, amongst others, alive in front of his court. We know small folk did hide Robert during the Battle of the Bells however, and Aerys was known widely as 'the Mad King'. They loved Rhaegar, but since Duskendale, Aerys was unpopular.

No, the small folk didn't care about the Game of Thrones everywhere (though I don't imagine they'd have been thrilled to see Aerys planned to set King's Landing alight) but every major family and all their bannermen (few exceptions obviously, houses like the Frey's) except the Tyrells and Martells rose up against the Targaryens.

All the major houses?

It was 4 (Arryn, Baratheon, Stark, Tully) of them that rose up. Besides several fairly powerful houses still fought for Aerys such as the Tarly's and Connington's fought for the Targaryens.

It wasn't the same as Robert.

Read through one of Ned's early chapters in A Game of Thrones (the one where he hears of Jon Arryn's death). The war started when Jon Arryn refused to turn over Ned and Robert to be executed.

Once the war started they realised that they had to remove Aerys and Robert had the best claim of any of the rebels.

Remove Aerys =/= kill all Targaryens. If they were sincerely rebelling against Aerys then Rhaegar or Aegon would have become King, as Rhaegar was probably planning already with the Lords. It was a power grab by Robert and his allies sought to gain from it, not that dissimilar from Renly and the Tyrells.

[Talleyrand]

It doesn't matter how well known or understood magic is, Renly's enemies had it, so the point Renly would have won if not for his enemies is redundant.

No its not that he would have won if not for his enemies. He would have won if not for an up until that point completely unknown factor that is literally a deus ex machina.

Same way he stopped Ned.

Except Renly doesn't trust Petyr, and isn't going to let him and his mini army of goldcloaks into the red keep.

There are thousands of Gold Cloaks. And Renly seems to disagree with you about his knight's chances against them because he ran remember? It's not like Ned and the paltry few guardsmen he had left were going to turn the battle.

He ran because Ned refused to support him and so went to go get an army. He needed Ned's help to seize Joff and his siblings.

Not all these goldcloaks are crooks who do anything for money and how many are willing to take the order of attack the well defended royal keep?

Your assertion contradicts Renly's judgement, he ran, he didn't try and hold out because he knew he couldn't. So either you're wrong, or Renly's judgement is poor.

Refer to the above.

The King's uncle seizing the King? I think Renly would have one hell of a PR problem at that point. He might have had the Northmen, depending on how Ned chose, but you can bet he'd have no neutral support.

Its the Legally declared Lord Protector of the Realm and the King's brother protecting the King against the traitor queen who is refusing to step down from power. Its an easy thing to spin.

Lets look at the Kingdoms. The Stormlands are with him, the Reach is with him, the North is with him.

The Vale and Dorne are going to stay neutral no matter what. The Riverlands are currently being ravaged by the Lannisters and under siege in Riverrun. I doubt they are going to help the Lannisters. And the Greyjoys, well they don't give a shit about Joff.