Why Renly Rebelled?

[jlk7e]

It was over, the Tyrells had already surrendered before then. When the Lannisters joined only the Martells (with a good amount of troops gone on the Trident) were left. If they hadn't joined in they'd have been weakened in the post-war Westeros and that's all that mattered. They hardly joined the rebellion properly.

Not true at all. Mace was still besieging Storm's End when Ned got there, which was well after the sack of King's Landing. And who knows how long the city might have held out if they hadn't opened the gates?

[Toccs]

I was under the impression that Tywin knew for a certainty that the gates would be open because he had Pycelle on the insdie, I can't remember the exact scene but I'm sure Pycelle said something to Tyrion about making sure the gates were open for Tywin.

Even if not, Tywin was not a part of the rebellion, was a former Hand of the King and had arrived with his army seemingly in King's Landing's hour of need. I would have probably opened the gate as well.

[danm_999]

He left because Ned turned him down so he went to marshal his forces. If in this hypothetical Renly has the 4 hostages then it means Ned had took him up on his offer, thus Ned has accepted the title of Lord Protector and Renly will act as "advisor" or be the hand of King. I doubt that the majority of the Goldcloaks have any loyalty to Janos so when he tells them to go attack their legal head of state who right now is in a well defended formidable holdout, they're not going to obey. In most likeliness they'll arrest Janos if ordered, especially if they hear Renly has ordered his Bannermen to bring troops into the city.

The hypothetical we've been discussing had Renly calling himself King, not Hand of the King. It's on the first page. You can't change critical elements of it half way through because it's not making sense in the context of your argument.

No he doesn't he already has the biggest army in the 7k. All he needs is them not to side against him during the war and then they'll support whoever won.

If he manages to somehow hold King's Landing, Stannis and Ned are going to be against him the second he crowns himself, and as the Starks go, so will the Riverlands.

And you know what, since in this scenario Joffrey won't be killing Ned, Renly probably will, the Lannisters might even make common cause with the Starks since they have as much interest in deposing him.

Suddenly, his situation is precarious.

Renly isn't Ned, he knows to strike first. He suggests striking before Robert is even dead. I wouldn't be surprised if he had Littlefinger taken care of at the get go.

Assuming Renly correctly identifies Littlefinger as his enemy, Littlefinger still has the Lannisters/City Watch on his side, so Renly can't get to him.

[jlk7e]

The hypothetical had Renly calling himself King, not Hand of the King. It's on the first page. You can't change it half way through.

I don't get the argument here. Renly's proposal to Ned while Robert was dying was that they seize control of Joffrey, who would be the new king, not that they make Renly king.

[Milcov]

Not true at all. Mace was still besieging Storm's End when Ned got there, which was well after the sack of King's Landing. And who knows how long the city might have held out if they hadn't opened the gates?

As has been said Pycelle was going to get the gates opened. Fact is the war was over at the Trident, the Lannisters joined in to make sure Cersei became Queen and that they kept their position of power in Westeros.

[danm_999]

Yes and the Tyrells aren't like the shadow babies as we know of them beforehand. A marriage alliance is not the same as a shadow baby.

No, but suddenly poof, Renly has a 100,000 strong army that nobody saw coming.

Martin could have made the Reach as strong or as weak as he liked, because they're very rarely mentioned in A Game of Thrones. He made them strong, and bound them to Renly, for the purposes of his fall. The fact the Tyrells continue to have a role later is irrelevant to the point I'm making.

It was over, the Tyrells had already surrendered before then. When the Lannisters joined only the Martells (with a good amount of troops gone on the Trident) were left. If they hadn't joined in they'd have been weakened in the post-war Westeros and that's all that mattered. They hardly joined the rebellion properly.

No, the Tyrells hadn't surrendered before the sack of King's Landing. They didn't surrender after it either, after King's Landing Ned had to go battle Mace Tyrell at Storm's End.

[danm_999]

As has been said Pycelle was going to get the gates opened. Fact is the war was over at the Trident, the Lannisters joined in to make sure Cersei became Queen and that they kept their position of power in Westeros.

Err, no, the War isn't over at the Trident. The Trident determined the outcome, sure, but there's lots of fighting after the Trident. The Sack of King's Landing, Siege of Storm's End, the Fall of Dragonstone, the Tower of Joy.

Sorry, that square peg ain't going into that round hole.

[naik2902]

if renly was king then he wuld have promoted gay brothels all over westeroes.

[Toccs]

Renly was just a Tyrell pawn the entire time. All of his inital actions up until he fled the city where part of the scheme to make Margaery Queen.by marrying her first to Robert and then when he lay dying by siezing Jofferey and presumably marrying her to him.

It's not until Tyrion's last chapter in aGoT that we ever hear of Renly naming him self king and taking up arms, and that is well after The North and the Lannisters are engaged in a war and before Stannis has sent out the letters about the twincest.. I think that the Tyrell's just took the opportunity in the chaos to convince Renly to crown himself and with their support take the throne by force wich would not only make Margaery the queen but also give them a king who was already an ally.

[Talleyrand]

The hypothetical we've been discussing had Renly calling himself King, not Hand of the King. It's on the first page. You can't change critical elements of it half way through because it's not making sense in the context of your argument.

Except your hypothetical goes against his character and the story. Declaring himself King was a last resort way to clear out the Lannisters. The entire point of him taking the hostages is so he doesn't have to become King and can rule through Joffrey. Your idea makes no sense in the context of the story. I came into this discussion against your claim that if Renly seized Joff then the realm would turn against him and that's the situation I've been arguing.

If he manages to somehow hold King's Landing, Stannis and Ned are going to be against him the second he crowns himself, and as the Starks go, so will the Riverlands.

Except he isn't going to declare himself King, he has Joffrey, he has no need to do so.

And you know what, since in this scenario Joffrey won't be killing Ned, Renly probably will, the Lannisters might even make common cause with the Starks since they have as much interest in deposing him.

Suddenly, his situation is precarious.

Why would Renly kill Ned? There is zero evidence to support that he would do so. And the Starks will never side with the Lannisters. As far as they know Lannisters killed Jon, tried to kill Bran twice and speared Ned in the leg. And on top of that they are the lands of Robb's kin. They are his enemies pure and simple.

Assuming Renly correctly identifies Littlefinger as his enemy, Littlefinger still has the Lannisters/City Watch on his side, so Renly can't get to him.

Except Littlefinger lacks any kind of personal protection. All it takes is a few men being sent to his brothel or quarters as the rest of Renly's men prepare to strike against the Lannisters and that's Baelish taken care off.

[LuisDantas]

In the words of Ned Stark, does he have a shred of honor? He knew he was not the rightful heir and rebelled anyway. He seemed loyal enough to Robert, in fact he seemed to idolize the man the same way Edric does.

Was he stupid enough to believe he would be a better king?

I don't know about being stupid, but of course he did believe he would be a better King than Stannis. He told Ned so outright, at least in the TV series. From all appearances, he was correct too.

Was he driven by personal gain?

Of course. No one pursues a crown for any other reason.

Was it Stannis' personality that made him not want to follow?

That too, obviously.

If he had been more like Robert would Renly have followed then?

Who knows.

Was he just a greedy, egotistical little boy who did not know his place?

No. That would be Stannis, minus the "little boy" part perhaps.

[LuisDantas]

These would be compelling arguments if Renly had any idea Joffrey or Stannis were doing these things when he proclaimed himself a King. He didn't, so to say his claim meant he opposed them is wrong. Else I could say Balon Greyjoy was against misrule.

You're assuming a lot. Renly was well acknowledged with both Joffrey and Stannis, and we have every reason to believe that he has been listening to any news from King's Landing and/or Dragonstone. Odds are that he has spies, at least in King's Landing.

Renly wasn't even aware Joffrey was a bastard until Catelyn told him, so you can see the level of thought he put into his intelligence on his enemies.

Renly has no reason to care whether Joffrey is a bastard or not.

[danm_999]

Except your hypothetical goes against his character and the story.

Wasn't my hypothetical. It was HearMeRoar's.

Declaring himself King was a last resort way to clear out the Lannisters. The entire point of him taking the hostages is so he doesn't have to become King and can rule through Joffrey. Your idea makes no sense in the context of the story.

See above point.

I came into this discussion against your claim that if Renly seized Joff then the realm would turn against him and that's the situation I've been arguing.

My position was that if he seized Joffrey and then declared himself King the realm would turn on him.

Except he isn't going to declare himself King, he has Joffrey, he has no need to do so.

Tell it to HearMeRoar.

Why would Renly kill Ned? There is zero evidence to support that he would do so.

Well, actually he might not kill him, he might simply imprison him. And he'd do that because Ned would object to Renly calling himself King.

And the Starks will never side with the Lannisters. As far as they know Lannisters killed Jon, tried to kill Bran twice and speared Ned in the leg. And on top of that they are the lands of Robb's kin. They are his enemies pure and simple.

I think if Renly had seized Ned, Joffrey, Cersei, Tommen and Myrcella, a Stark-Lannister Alliance would be a possibility.

Except Littlefinger lacks any kind of personal protection. All it takes is a few men being sent to his brothel or quarters as the rest of Renly's men prepare to strike against the Lannisters and that's Baelish taken care off.

He wouldn't need his own, if he's siding with the Lannisters.

[Batman]

I don't know about being stupid, but of course he did believe he would be a better King than Stannis. He told Ned so outright, at least in the TV series. From all appearances, he was correct too.

Of course. No one pursues a crown for any other reason.

That too, obviously.

Who knows.

No. That would be Stannis, minus the "little boy" part perhaps.

Stannis doesnt even want the throne, he is just doing it because its justice, he is Roberts rightful heir. If Robert had born a true heir Stannis would stand behind him.

[danm_999]

You're assuming a lot. Renly was well acknowledged with both Joffrey and Stannis, and we have every reason to believe that he has been listening to any news from King's Landing and/or Dragonstone. Odds are that he has spies, at least in King's Landing.

There are no spies on Dragonstone, Melisandre made certain of that. Varys even comments all the informers he's sent have vanished.

As for Renly, you seriously think he has a spy network in King's Landing if he hasn't gotten the news that every lord in the Seven Kingdoms got; that Joffrey's a bastard.

Renly has no reason to care whether Joffrey is a bastard or not.

Kind of hurts your point about his amazing spy network though...

[Toccs]

I always thought that Renly's best move would have been to take Stannis' offer of bending the knee and getting his old position back and being named Stannis' heir until he should have a son. Then all Renly and the Tyrell's would have to do is make sure that Stannis didn't survive the war and presto Renly has just gained the loyalty of all of Stannis' bannermen without putting them at the point of a sword and he would also have the rightful claim to the throne.

Of course it would have be doomed to fail because of Melisandre and her visions but that can't really be held against Renly or the Tyrells. I mean of all the claimants to the throne who could have predicited that it would be old stick-in-the-mud Stannis Baratheon who would bring crazy demon babies and future seeing witches to the table?

[David Selig]

I always thought that Renly's best move would have been to take Stannis' offer of bending the knee and getting his old position back and being named Stannis' heir until he should have a son. Then all Renly and the Tyrell's would have to do is make sure that Stannis didn't survive the war and presto Renly has just gained the loyalty of all of Stannis' bannermen without putting them at the point of a sword and he would also have the rightful claim to the throne.

But why bother with this? Stannis bannermen have little power, retainers and influence. If not for the shadowbaby, Renly would've crushed easily Stannis army and most of the surviving bannermen of Stannis would've switched sides to him anyway.

[Toccs]

But why bother with this? Stannis bannermen have little power, retainers and influence. If not for the shadowbaby, Renly would've crushed easily Stannis army and most of the surviving bannermen of Stannis would've switched sides to him anyway.

I don't dispute that without Melisandre, Renly would have easily crushed Stannis and absorbed his remaining forces into his own, but both sides would suffer losses. If he had taken Stannis' offer and been made heir then they would have united both armies without bloddshed and had Stannis (an effective commander by all accounts) fighting alongside him. Also when Stannis was then eliminated Renly would gain the loyalty of Stannis's baner men without any foul play and thus avoid any lingering resentment.

[LuisDantas]

Stannis doesnt even want the throne, he is just doing it because its justice, he is Roberts rightful heir. If Robert had born a true heir Stannis would stand behind him.

If he doesn't want the throne, there was certainly no one pressuring him away from supporting Renly.

Stannis wants the throne a whole lot, make no mistake. He claims to have no choice, but that is only a personal affectation that he developed out of his insecurities.

[LuisDantas]

There are no spies on Dragonstone, Melisandre made certain of that. Varys even comments all the informers he's sent have vanished.

As for Renly, you seriously think he has a spy network in King's Landing if he hasn't gotten the news that every lord in the Seven Kingdoms got; that Joffrey's a bastard.

I'm certain that he got word of it. It is still true that he doesn't really care, nor would Stannis have any proof to offer even if he did.

Stannis might have got some mileage out of showing Edric Storm besides Joffrey, as he wanted to do early on. But he gave up on that and opted to fight in Blackwater instead.

Maybe it was a wise choice, I don't know. His odds with Edric vs Joffrey weren't good. That still does not give him the right to slay Renly as he did.

Kind of hurts your point about his amazing spy network though...

How so, and when did I claim that it was "amazing"?

It doesn't take James Bond to bring news about Joffrey's damage to King's Landing to Renly. There are ravens, and there are people coming from the city to the Stormlands and the Reach.

Are assuming that Renly needs lots of evidence to decide that he won't support either Joffrey nor Stannis? Ain't so.