Betrayal of the North

[Opkio]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Stannis wasn't taking his sweet time entering the war, he was trying to gather an army. Something he was unable to do until he murdered Renly and took his men.

Yes he took his time. There is something called raven messenger. Send a raven to Winterfell with something like:

Sup Robb,

I see you took arms against the Lannisters who are sitting on my throne. Well i will help you out.

Regards,

Stannis bla bla bla.

IIRC Robb took some time to gather his forces march south and stop at the Twins. Ergo by that time the message of Ned to Stannis about Jeoffrey not being trueborn etc etc should have arrived. So he definitely could have used the raven messenger to get on Robb's side, who at the time was fighting the Lannisters.

[Blue-eyed Onion]

IIRC Robb took some time to gather his forces march south and stop at the Twins. Ergo by that time the message of Ned to Stannis about Jeoffrey not being trueborn etc etc should have arrived. So he definitely could have used the raven messenger to get on Robb's side, who at the time was fighting the Lannisters.

Stannis was the one who realized the truth about Cercei's children and indicated it to Jon Arryn. When Jon Arryn suddenly up and died without having told Robert, Stannis assumed he was poisoned by Cercei or her supporters and fled to Dragonstone (possibly to avoid the same fate as Arryn).

The message Ned wrote with the big info and declaration of fealty never reached Stannis; it never even left King's Landing, thanks to both Sansa and Pycelle.

[AvengerofWinterfell]

The Northmen wont betray Stannis because they arent his in the first place. They joined his cause to fight a common enemy not because they took him for their King. That being said, I doubt they'd kill him because Rickon's back (assuming he makes it back). They'll probably allow him to leave but having left no doubt that they dont intend to follow him. The North would never follow Stannis as King for the same reason Jon Snow didnt take his offer to become Lord of Winterfell. Stannis follows Rhyllor now and as uncompromising as he is, he'd demand that they follow him too. The North will NEVER go for that.

[AvengerofWinterfell]

Stannis was the one who realized the truth about Cercei's children and indicated it to Jon Arryn. When Jon Arryn suddenly up and died without having told Robert, Stannis assumed he was poisoned by Cercei or her supporters and fled to Dragonstone (possibly to avoid the same fate as Arryn).

The message Ned wrote with the big info and declaration of fealty never reached Stannis; it never even left King's Landing, thanks to both Sansa and Pycelle.

I thought Stannis left because he felt slighted that Robert would seek out Ned to serve as Hand rather than ask Stannis.

[Buried Treasure]

Ned's letter to Stannis was due to go on the same ship as the girls, they were going to detour. As the ship was later being used as bait to capture Arya it is pretty clear it never reached him.

The CoKs prologue and Davos I give a lot of clues to Stannis' actions and inactions:

- He has not been allowing ships to leave Dragonstone for about half a year. I don't think it can 6 months since Robert died, so he must have been building up his fleet from somepoint in the last months of Robert's life.

- The Florents are with him. As their lands are on the opposite side of the continent it seems unlikely they were skirting armies to cross Westeros and join him after Robert died, so they may have gone to Dragonstone with him from KL.

- He has sent Davos to secretly treat with the Stormlords - he returns during this time. The cautious ones will not do anything and the bold ones have already declared for Renly. So Stannis is only beginning to seek new allies (ie those not coming through Dragonstone anyway) after Renly has called the banners.

- He has received word of Robb's crowning via raven sometime before the book starts.

It's pretty clear that Stannis was going on the defensive and preparing for trouble (not allowing ships to leave) before anyone else in the realm, even before Robert dies. Yet he is the fourth king to declare and does so months after Robert dies. Those months of inaction bring nothing new to his cause but a few fishing ships and merchant vessels whereas if he had sought allies sooner he would have had at least a chance of winning a few before everybody had already picked somebody else to back.

[jblair]

Why do a lot of people think that the North will turn on Stannis if/when Davos brings Rickon back from Skagos? Stannis has done quite a bit for the North. He repelled a wildling invasion, rescued Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn, and seems poised to kill Ramsay Snow and a load of Freys along with him.

If the Northern houses betray him after all of that they can become undead thralls for the Others for all I care about them.

Are these things worth losing an entire religion for? If Stannis doesn't rein in (or better yet, sacrifice) his vile fiery fanatic, I could care less what happens to him. I like Stannis a lot, but I have a hard time forgetting that his lover-advisor is a combination of Torquemada, Morgana Le Fay, and Rasputin.

[Biglose]

the only way Stannis will compromise is if Jon Snow is discovered to have a better claim than him. Other than that Stannis will not compromise. It would be out of character for him. Most of the Northmen still believe in the King of The North.If a Stark is found and they are forced to choose between Stannis or a Stark it will not be a difficult situation. I'm sure after the Battle of Ice Stannis' army will be even more depleted and it will be foolish for him to all the northeners traitors and attack them, but I dont know what else Stannis will do.

Divide and rule. He will be not even closely powerful enough to really control the southern regions.

So an independent ally in the north who will send support if needed, will be much more valuable to him than trying to control the north.

[Larry of the Lawn]

If Davos shows up with Rickon, isn't the whole point for Stannis to put Rickon up in Winterfell as a LORD not a king? I think that with the north in the ruins it is now, and Stannis being the only one around strong enough to team up with the Manderly's to fight the Bolton's, that the north would be wiling to forget about being it's own kingdom and at least just be glad to have Bolton done with and a Stark back in Winterfell. That's what Stannis wanted to accomplish when he offered Winterfell and Val to Jon.

I don't see the North turning on Stannis. Right now, they're allies - he's the only that recognizes the threat posed by the Others, and he's fighting the Lannisters and the Bolton's. What more could the North ask for in an ally?

[Opkio]

Ned's letter to Stannis was due to go on the same ship as the girls, they were going to detour. As the ship was later being used as bait to capture Arya it is pretty clear it never reached him. The CoKs prologue and Davos I give a lot of clues to Stannis' actions and inactions: - He has not been allowing ships to leave Dragonstone for about half a year. I don't think it can 6 months since Robert died, so he must have been building up his fleet from somepoint in the last months of Robert's life. - The Florents are with him. As their lands are on the opposite side of the continent it seems unlikely they were skirting armies to cross Westeros and join him after Robert died, so they may have gone to Dragonstone with him from KL. - He has sent Davos to secretly treat with the Stormlords - he returns during this time. The cautious ones will not do anything and the bold ones have already declared for Renly. So Stannis is only beginning to seek new allies (ie those not coming through Dragonstone anyway) after Renly has called the banners. - He has received word of Robb's crowning via raven sometime before the book starts. It's pretty clear that Stannis was going on the defensive and preparing for trouble (not allowing ships to leave) before anyone else in the realm, even before Robert dies. Yet he is the fourth king to declare and does so months after Robert dies. Those months of inaction bring nothing new to his cause but a few fishing ships and merchant vessels whereas if he had sought allies sooner he would have had at least a chance of winning a few before everybody had already picked somebody else to back.

My point exactly. If what you say about Stannis knowing and preparing for war before Robert died, this adds to my opinion that Stannis was a fool. If he knew and was seeking allies or even trying to build defenses he should have contacted Robb as soon as he realized that he called his banners to ride south to KL which was months before Robb called himself King.

I am just saying that Stannis could ave benefited by taking the North as allies rather than sit on Dragonstone trying to recruit the Stormlands.

[Kittyhat]

Just imagine what will happen to Stannis if the North ever finds out he used black magic (the leeches) against Robb through Melisandre.

Now you can say that that had nothing to do with his death, but I think it's an awfully big coincidence that Joff, Balon and Robb all did Stannis the favor of kicking off in various ways not terribly long after the leech-burning bit. I'm not a big believer in coincidences that extreme, particularly in a world wherein we know full well magic exists and works.

Regardless, I kind of wish they would find out somehow. I'd rather enjoy seeing that self-absorbed, black-magic using, kinslaying usurper hang ... particularly at the hands of some of those he may have wronged.

[Winterfell is Burning]

It's not a coincidence: Melisandre saw their deaths in the fire and tried to take credit for it.

[Jolene Brown]

But it reflects his willingness to participate in black magic. Plus, won't that just sound sort of like an excuse if they are already pissed?

[Opkio]

do you think melisandre and stannis will reunite? they may not see each other anymore. Just a thought.

[David C. Hunter]

If Davos shows up with Rickon, isn't the whole point for Stannis to put Rickon up in Winterfell as a LORD not a king? I think that with the north in the ruins it is now, and Stannis being the only one around strong enough to team up with the Manderly's to fight the Bolton's, that the north would be wiling to forget about being it's own kingdom and at least just be glad to have Bolton done with and a Stark back in Winterfell. That's what Stannis wanted to accomplish when he offered Winterfell and Val to Jon. I don't see the North turning on Stannis. Right now, they're allies - he's the only that recognizes the threat posed by the Others, and he's fighting the Lannisters and the Bolton's. What more could the North ask for in an ally?

The Southron soldiers and Stannis are believing they are doing this to put a Stark back in Winterfell as 'Lord', but the North wants independence now. The last thing they want after everything that has happened to them is for southron King telling them to obey, bend the knee and potentially take up the Lord of Light, and if they dont Stannis will call them traitors and they will attack the Northmen and die. Stannis isn't exactly compromising. Break before he bends