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[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5


Angalin

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think there's something so hilarious about how Theon is gleeful about the maester being caught! in his lie. A little bit of the old Theon where he laughs at everything.

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I think the more likely scenario is that the men with Stannis simply put on Frey clothing and pull off a Trojan Horse maneuver in order to gain access to the castle.

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It's possible, but only if you're of the opinion that Ramsey's letter to the Wall was forged. I think it's genuine. Not to mention though that even if they did that, there wouldn't be enough Frey colors to outfit all of Stannis' forces and they'd still be outnumbered by Bolton's men inside the castle.

No, I do think Ramsay's letter is by his hand. I imagine he wrote and sent it at first word that Stannis had been defeated and 'Arya Stark' sent to the Wall for safe keeping. As for the disparity in forces, I think Stannis possess more than enough with Manderlay to take the castle, especially with the Boltons caught unawares. Also, this isn't about getting all of Stannis' men inside the castle immediately, they just need someone on the inside to open the gates (see Trojan War).

So, to be clear:

1. Stannis and Manderlay combine to slaughter the Frey force.

2. Manderlay returns, with some of Stannis' men dressed as Freys proclaiming victory (with Stannis' sword in hand, as proof).

3. Ramsay writes his letter to Jon Snow.

4. Later that night the gates are opened to allow the remainder of Stannis' men and the remaining Northmen inside to storm the castle while most of the Bolton men are asleep.

5. I also imagine as all of this is going on, many of the Northerners on the Bolton's side will switch allegiance (quite willingly, at that).

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If this plays out like I think it will, we'll get to see Stannis in full tactical mode.

This is when Ramsay sends the letter to Castle Black. Most likely Manderley's forces will have been "decimated" (while in reality most of them joined Stannis' forces) so the Boltons know they will have to march on the Wall to get back Arya/Jeyne, since she's their only legitimate claim to Winterfell and there is no chance the Lord Commander will return her to them.

Meanwhile, Stannis' and Manderley's forces march up the Kingsroad to Winterfell and take the now lightly guarded castle, trapping Bolton's forces between Winterfell and the Wall.

I think the key piece of evidence is that Ramsay asks for Reek. If Stannis truly had been defeated, then Ramsay would have had Theon, since Stannis certainly wasn't going to release him, or at the least, Ramsay would have found out that Theon had been executed. The Boltons and Freys are about to receive their comeuppance.

I like this. I didn't read through all 50,000 old posts either, but I haven't seen anyone else post the the part about drawing Bolton out of the Winterfell before (as opposed to tricking him into letting them inside Winterfell). They could be drawing him out to retake the castle, or even to ambush his men as they travel to the wall. Also, I agree with that part about demanding Theon back. If the Bolton's had in fact won the battle, Ramsey would either know what happened to Theon (if he's killed at the Godswood), or know that he was one of the captives (of course it is possible Theon escaped in the chaos).

One thing: what if Theon admits that he didn't kill the Stark boys right before he's beheaded, and Stannis allows him to take the black, and that's why Ramsey thinks he's at the Wall? I would really hate it if that were the case, but it seems possible.

I can't wait to see where this goes though. GRRM has set up SO many possibilities.

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Remember, his only crime wasn't the killing of Bran and Rickon...he sacked Winterfell before any of that, and paved the way for the tender mercies of the Boltons.

While I agree that wasn't his only crime, it was Ramsey and not Theon that sacked Winterfell. I'm not sure the northern lords that want him dead would believe his word though.

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I suppose it's possible, but even if Theon admits that, I would see Stannis keeping him close so that Theon could testify to the truth to bolster the legitimacy of Rickon's claim until Rickon is produced. Any other way, I would just see the Northmen following Stannis revolting if Stannis allowed Theon to escape justice. Remember, his only crime wasn't the killing of Bran and Rickon...he sacked Winterfell before any of that, and paved the way for the tender mercies of the Boltons.

You're probbably right about wanting to keep him close.

While I agree that wasn't his only crime, it was Ramsey and not Theon that sacked Winterfell. I'm not sure the northern lords that want him dead would believe his word though.

But he did sack Winterfell.. Not as bad as Ramsey did, but he climbed the walls, occupied it, and killed some of the people. Also, the North considers him a traitor.. So I think there's actually a pretty good chance it would be difficult for Stannis to get away with anything but executing him. The North will want blood, even if it's revealed he didn't kill the Stark boys.

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this is my first post... and I have not read all the many many posts yet.

just some ideas...

if the letter is real why would Ramsey write it and not Roose? Roose is the head of the house.

if the letter is fake then how to Stannis know that Abel is Mance? I don't think that theon knew.... (might be wrong)

also how would stannis get pink sealing wax? (might seem silly but still a loose end)

I am sure that the raven's as key to Stannis's battle plan. My first thought was that he would send pretending to be karstark saying they had moved to a field advantages to him so that word would be sent to the freys and manderlys. So when stannis talked about not having natural defences "yet" that is what he meant. even if this is not the case i still think the birds will be important.

Theon and Asha will also have to split up (unless theon dies) because it seems pointless to have to POV characters in the same place for an extended amount of time but unless there is a point.

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this is my first post... and I have not read all the many many posts yet.

just some ideas...

if the letter is real why would Ramsey write it and not Roose? Roose is the head of the house.

if the letter is fake then how to Stannis know that Abel is Mance? I don't think that theon knew.... (might be wrong)

also how would stannis get pink sealing wax? (might seem silly but still a loose end)

I am sure that the raven's as key to Stannis's battle plan. My first thought was that he would send pretending to be karstark saying they had moved to a field advantages to him so that word would be sent to the freys and manderlys. So when stannis talked about not having natural defences "yet" that is what he meant. even if this is not the case i still think the birds will be important.

Theon and Asha will also have to split up (unless theon dies) because it seems pointless to have to POV characters in the same place for an extended amount of time but unless there is a point.

It's possible that Mance himself was the one who wrote it. He has all the knowledge neccesary.

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It's possible that Mance himself was the one who wrote it. He has all the knowledge neccesary.

Why would Mance write such a thing, though?

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Why would Mance write such a thing, though?

To consider why Mance would, you would first need to consider why anyone else would. Mance is in a tender position, and hostages would help him to extricate himself. Does anyone else have that motivation for demanding Selyse, Melisandre, and Shireen?
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Deciding to leave the Wall was quite a hasty action. Even as Jon is doing the action he realises the many mistakes that are being made (e.g. not informing Melisandre or Queen Selyse, whose men were conspiciously absent during Jon announcement in the Shield Hall, save Ser Narbert and Ser Benethon, about his intentions). But if he believes the letter to be true then he cannot wait for an army of Norterners to march on Castle Black.

While the initial defence of Castle Black against the Thenns during the the Battle of Castle Black the Night's Watch, the Wildlings, and the Queen's men could not, "repel an attack of that magnitude"...from the south. Waiting for the Bolton force to march on Castle Black would prove to be a poor military tactic unless he wished to make terms.

Pretty much, Jon was put in a place where he had to march on the Bolton force or risk having all the gains made with the Wildlings come to an end. If he truly thought that Ramsey as Lord of Winterfell could not co-exist with Jon Snow Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

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Theon and Asha will also have to split up (unless theon dies) because it seems pointless to have to POV characters in the same place for an extended amount of time but unless there is a point.

Ned, Arya, and Sansa were all together for all of Book I, and Sansa and Tyrion were in King's Landing together for all of Book II and most of Book III. I don't see why POV characters can't be in the same place for a while.

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Look at Jon's responnse, he armed the Wildlings, and was prepared to lead them to Winterfell. All Mance's goal achieved I'd say, all that'd be left for him to do is show and take command.

I'm not so sure the wildlings would universally accept Mance's leadership any longer. I think , to some degree , he'd find himself supplanted ( inadvertently ) by Jon...Of course , he wouldn't know that...

If I'm right in thinking that much of Mance's cred with the wildlings came to him through "wise woman " Dalla , with Dalla dead and Val, her sister either by blood or profession , now forming a bond with Jon ( he released her to act as his emissary to Tormund ) .. and considering Tormund's attitude toward Jon , and the support of Jon demonstrated by his behaviour in the sheildhall ... then even if Mance did write the letter with such intentions , he could be in for a surprise.. :)

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The wildlings no longer have Mance as their symbol. I do believe this has been replaced by Tormund and then finally Jon. IIRC from the book we can say with absolute certainty know that Rattleshirt burnt instead of Mance are Mance, Melisandre, and Jon. When Jon reads the letter to

Tormund says "What was that about Mance? Has him in a cage, does he? How when hundreds saw your red witch burn the man?"

Jon's reply, That was Rattleshirt, Jon almost said. That was sorcery. A glamour, she called it. "Melisandre...look to the skies, she said." He sent the letter down. "A raven in a storm. She saw this coming." When you have your answers, send to me.

Then Tormund states something about if he could read and write he would write about how long and thick his member was, HAR! Tormund says writing something does not make it so.

Jon then says, "He has Lightbringer. He talks of heads upon the walls of Winterfell. He knows about the spearwives and their numbers." He knows about Mance. "No. There is truth in there." pg. 908-909 HC in ADWD.

Still not too sure if Tormund knows about Mance 100%, although Jon does not tell him he then states that Ramsey knows about the spearwives. Maybe Tormund will figure it out if he cares even to.

So basically people would have to believe that Mance is alive, despite only one person claiming that he is a lie. Actually, might be the only true statement in that letter is that Mance Rayder is alive. Come on, Ramsey did not defeat Stannis. It is known.

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I can't believe I had not read Theon I until yesterday... I feel like I've been cheated for six months in such an awesome way. That chapter had so much subtext to drive speculation for WoW that I will probably begin a reread... again...

All I can say is wow. That chapter was GRRM at his best. Stannis' character development since SoS has been incredible. Theon gets more and more interesting, and now I am going to look for Bran in every crow call throughout Westeros.

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