[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5

[Lebronn Jaime]

"Green" as in "greenhorn". It refers to the young, newly recruited levies, in this case.

Mance should be aware of the swap since he claims to have made note of all the Stark children relatively recently. But what makes you think Lady Dustin is aware of the ruse?

[evita mgfs]

Dustin opens those crypts - she knows the Starks well. She defends Theon against Ramsay and Roose and tries to maintain a peace at WF. Theon fears her nonchalance as a woman who knows of winter, for she says, "Let winter do its worst." Theon fears the old gods are listening, and we know they are, and Lady Dustin has no guilty consience regarding inciting them. [she may not have told Theon the complete truth in the crypts]

I do know some of Martin's terms - I thought he may be using green as he uses other words or phrases, like "other", "snow," "no one."

Which brings me to another point, aren’t Roose and Ramsay and their wedding guests violating the laws of hospitality by taking up residence in a castle with no living Stark in Winterfell? Fake ones do not count unless they are the real ones in disguise. Neither does ravens and weirwood faces.

Where is Mormont's raven? He mysteriously disappears sometime during Jon and Tormund's "two hour" discussion after receiving the Bolton letter?

[Jolene Brown]

They're certainly not behaving very nicely but the existence of a Stark in Winterfell has nothing to do with the laws of hospitality.

[bemused]

There must always be a Stark in Winterfell is something we hear repeated from Stark to Stark .Unlike Winter is Coming , which everyone knows , I don't think There Must Always be..etc., is as widely known. Although Stark supporters would agree with the sentiment ,for reasons involving loyalty and politics.. if there's a magical reason , perhaps even the Starks have forgotten. So even if the Boltons have heard the saying , I don't think they realize it's import.

[Tini]

All the Wildlings don't need that sort of aptitude, only their leaders do - no one would argue that the average man levied in the North is particularly able, after all. In a straight up fight, the Wildings would lose, but if they have a capable leader (Jon Snow, Mance Rayder) who knows their weaknesses and plays to their strengths, then victories are possible.

Yes, they would need that sort of aptitude. It doesn't matter if their leaders devise brilliant strategies if unruly wildlings don't follow the carefully laid plans, don't follow orders, change plans without notice, or attack other groups of wildlings due to historical feuds. Or just decide that they don't follow this particular leader.

I guess a capable leader will make plans that play to the strength of the wildlings - Mance did. The wildlings live and fight in small groups that can be highly organized. They don't play well with other groups. It was despair that allowed Mance to organize the attack on the Wall, and even then the clans and families mostly travelled separately, even though they were moving towards the same goal.

But that despair has lessened now that they are south of the Wall - and that means they will start drifting back to their old ways.

[Vympel]

Yes, they would need that sort of aptitude. It doesn't matter if their leaders devise brilliant strategies if unruly wildlings don't follow the carefully laid plans, don't follow orders, change plans without notice, or attack other groups of wildlings due to historical feuds. Or just decide that they don't follow this particular leader.

Well the aptitude I was talking about there was cunning rather than discipline (i.e. the ability to follow carefully laid plans, follow orders, etc).

I guess a capable leader will make plans that play to the strength of the wildlings - Mance did.

Sure, that's what I'm trying to say - the Wildlings have little discipline, so unless they're trained up (unlikely, given the timeframe available) then their leader (presumably Jon) has to play to their strengths and devise tactics for a given battle that don't rely on great discipline. I figure that this has the best chance of occurring where the Wildlings are part of a larger plan - you can't rely on them entirely.

[Volantis]

It's possible that Mance himself was the one who wrote it. He has all the knowledge neccesary.

To consider why Mance would, you would first need to consider why anyone else would. Mance is in a tender position, and hostages would help him to extricate himself. Does anyone else have that motivation for demanding Selyse, Melisandre, and Shireen?

Do we even know that Ramsay knows how to read and write?

[WolfDragon]

I think we do based on the letter he sent Asha Greyjoy.

I like the theory that stannis has defeated the force that may have come to attack him based on the comments in ADWD referring to the lake looking like swiss cheese from all the holes in it. It is pretty likely an army is going to be falling through the ice in the next book.

I have noticed the bit on the Ravens following the story as well, which coincided with Bran's dissapearance from the book.

As far as the northmen accepting Theon, I think if Bran or Rickon is ever revealed, the northmen's opinion might change.

[firewareagle]

How does Theon know what Jon's letter via Tychos to Stannis says? anyone have any thoughts on this?

[Lebronn Jaime]

Either Tycho has told him about the situation at the Wall involving Alys or Theon's figured out the contents of the letter from the fact that Stannis is calling in Maester Tybalt after reading it. He knows about the Maester and the Karstark treachery and is waiting for the other shoe to drop.

[aryagonnakill]

I believe Roose lets it slip in an earlier theon chapter

[The Red Hand]

All the Wildlings don't need that sort of aptitude, only their leaders do - no one would argue that the average man levied in the North is particularly able, after all. In a straight up fight, the Wildings would lose, but if they have a capable leader (Jon Snow, Mance Rayder) who knows their weaknesses and plays to their strengths, then victories are possible.

Roose seems to be an able though not brilliant commander, but I don't think there's any reason to believe Ramsay is any good. The only reason he won at Winterfell was because he had the good fortune of killing Ser Rodrik at the outset and then confusion reigned. I'm eager to see him tested in a battle where he doesn't have the advantage of turning his cloak, I imagine he'll be thoroughly smashed.

You still need military discipline in battle to pull off something like that. Some wildlings, like the Thenns, could but I don't think that the others could. Men fighting in organized formations and obeying seasoned commanders woulld most likely destroy people who aren't. And I give Ramsay the benefit of the doubt about being a skilled commander. Even if he did launch a surprise attack on a leaderless foe he was still outnumbered 3 to 1 and only had 20-30 casualties. I realize the irony of what I'm saying but I still think it makes sense.

[bemused]

Ramsay wasn't fighting in deep snow when he took Rodrik by surprise. If Jon could catch him on his way , in snow ,which the wildlings are used to..as Ramsay's force is strung out presumably along the king's road.. wouldn't require the same kind of discpline and complicated deployment a drilled army utilizes.

[The Red Hand]

Ramsay and his forces are still northmen and I imagine there used to snow.

[aryagonnakill]

I think the wildlings are well practiced at ambush style attacks for the exact reason of their non discipline. I would imagine that when the crows roll through the wildlings dont stand in front of their destriers, they hide and take them by surprise, at least that is my assumption.

[bemused]

Ramsay and his forces are still northmen and I imagine there used to snow.

We haven't heard of them using Bear Paws , riding garrons as normal practice ( like the smaller, more "rustic" clans ) ,etc. and the snow is unusually heavy..I think Ramsay would be at a disadvantage..particularly if he did not write the letter, but one of the other candidates. Wildlings employing guerilla tactics , and being far more likely to be equipped for snow, could be pretty devastating , especially if they had surprise on their side.

[rickard]

One thing my theory doesn't account for is how Theon and/or Asha will fit into the battle sequence (and one of them will have to, since they are the only POVs there).

I'm quite sure Theon is fated to survive in the short term but I don't quite know how. I'm also a firm believer that Theon and Asha taking back the Seastone Chair is going to be a developing storyline (far too much groundwork has been laid to abandon it now).

So I'm working under those two assumptions.

A separate thread indicates that the kingsmoot is null when one of the "heirs" (lack of a better thought) is not present. Theon was not present and potentially claim that the kingsmoot was null and void? Also, the new theon chap and with the last Bran chapter in ADWD, it is likely that Theon will be brought before the wierwood tree and something will happen there. Bran does have intimate knowledge of winterfell from his time spent with the gargoyle statues when he was a climber so he knows it's secrets better than anyone.

[bemused]

Theon or Asha could narrate the battle , but there seems to be a common belief that there will be no new POVs , that could be a miconception . I believe what GRRM actually said was that there would be no new POVs of characters that we haven't met yet . That would open the door to Stannis, one of his knights , etc.etc.

In AGoT, Bran was a little boy who liked to explore, who thought he knew Winterfell better than anyone. That doesn't mean he was right , or that there weren't things other people knew that he didn't.

[rickard]

In AGoT, Bran was a little boy who liked to explore, who thought he knew Winterfell better than anyone. That doesn't mean he was right , or that there weren't things other people knew that he didn't.

If you go to the "*SPOILERS* On ravens - from the latest excerpt on GRRM's site" in this same WOW category, third post down by kissedbyfire it gives a good discussion on what I mean by Bran knowing more about winterfell than anyone. Straight from GRRM's mouth in GOT. Sorry, but I haven't figured out how to paste links to other threads yet. I'm still a commoner.

[bemused]

:D I don't know how to link properly either ( blush )

Yes, I know the thread , I know the post ,and I know the excerpt from the book. I still don't think Bran knows everything there is to be known , or that he alone knows about all the things he knows. That was written from Bran's POV , and GRRM always warns us to beware the unreliable narrator (it's a writing tool he's known to use)..Oh , I think Bran might know more than many , maybe more than most, in some respects..but I don't think his six (?) year old's opinion can be trusted entirely.

I don't think it will be Stannis who finds out about a secret passage , though...