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New LC?


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Whatever the fate of Jon, it seems unlikely he's going to rise as a LC again. Who's going to become the new Lord Commander is no doubt going to be very pivotal to the story because the Watch's support of Stannis is rather critical to his plans. (possible spoiler) If you've read the Winds of Winter sample on George's website you'll know Stannis has sent some men back to the wall, among them Tycho. If the Watch has turned against Jon (and thus wants to comply with Ramsay's requests in the letter) they're going to be in a lot of trouble even getting back to their ship and leaving for the mercenary cities (which should also be rather pivotal...). It's not unthinkable that the Wildlings will have gone on a mad killing spree against those who stabbed Jon, in fact I hope it to be true... Nevertheless I can't picture the next Lord Commander to be as Stannis-minded as Jon and this isn't going to bode well with 'Arya' being sent to the wall... The Night's Watch could easily overrun whatever guards Selyse and Mel have left and deliver them to Ramsay. Things look grim. Regardless of the consequences, who do you think will be the next Lord Commander? I fear it'll be Bowen Marsh since he seems like the instigator of the rebellion against Jon.

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LOL that would be awesome. If her motives are true Mel would make a great LC since she knows about the Others and stuff, but I don't trust her and this is likely wishful thinking.

I would hope Marsh would face disciplinary action but the fact he killed Jon so out in the open to me suggests he doesn't have to fear anything like that...

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Anyway most probably they won't have time to choose anyone in that chaos.

As for acting LC, Pyke is out of picture so Mallister has a good chance or Thorne. But maybe Benjen will finally return.

For the less ortodox choices what about Mance?

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It's quite possible that the Watch will be in such dissaray that proper elections for a new Lord Commander will be impossible.

Bowen Marsh appears to be the leader of his little group so, i'm guessing he'll assume some sort of authority.

How long he and his cronies survive is another matter as they'll have a lot of enemies now - Stannis, Jon's supporters and the Free Folk. Fingers crossed he gets his comeuppance sooner rather than later.

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Perhaps his appearances the previous election was foreshadowing this?!

LOL, I just love how GRRM was messing around with that. It's still one of the most hilarious things in the book that Dolorous Edd would attend all those meetings with Stannis although he only had 1 vote, then when he found it necessary to make a horrible speech ('I would be a horrible first commander, but that goes for all the others as well') and actually gained a vote because of it I nearly pissed myself xD

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I was thinking about the same thing after I finished adwd. We have several things going on here:

- Jon seemed to be quite popular among the wildlings.

- Jon seemed to be one of the (sadly) very few of the NW who understood why the wildlings are better south of the wall than north.

- Many NW members seem to HATE wildlings or at least feel threatened by them.

- Jon got killed while trying to smooth out a very real threat of a very bloody conflict behind the Wall.

Considering all that, I think things will get VERY ugly behind the Wall. Except for several wildling leaders, Mance, Stannis, Mel and Jon, people at the Wall just really don't seem to get the scale of danger they are in. I think a very realistic and logical scenario would be the following:

- the 999th LC will be from the anti-wildling faction

- the queen's men will demand Wun Wun's blood for what he did, wildlings will oppose this

- the anti-wildling faction or the queen's men will do 'justice' possibly killing others in the heat of the moment

- a huge rampage starts out NW vs NW factions, queen's men vs everyone, wildlings vs everyone, etc.

By the end of the fight, a huge lot of innocent people are dead, possibly the queen and company are dead, half of the Night's Watch dead, and the conflict may spread along the wall.

Jon wakes up to be the 1000th LC and finds himself in a pretty shitty but at least politically incomplicated situation. Or he gets the blame only to be stabbed back into death again.

Scenario B) Just when things start to look bad an Other skirmish ends the life of the 999th LC, people start to act like adults and take back Jon as 1000th LC.

We also have the Weeper north of the Wall trying to get south.

It's quite reasonable to think though (which makes scenario A more likely) that catastrophic things will happen in TWoW. Everything is set up for a terrible tragedy. Jon was stabbed at the worst possible moment.

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If there's going to be a new commander to be elected, it won't be Allisser Thorne, because he's deeply unpopular. Since Janos Slynt is dead, it will go between the Pyke dude and the old dude. When Stannis comes back to The Wall, they will still be busy voting because as we saw before they're too close and don't want to give the title to each other. Stannis will not like this (as he expressed before). He will force them to pick one within a week or something. They will fail. He will give himself the command. He'll be their king and their commander. Anyone who opposes him he'll have killed. He'll think this is the best decision for now, since Winter has come. Night's King anyone?

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I doubt there will be a NW by the end of this series, but in the mean time I think Bowen Marsh will take command of the Watch. If the NW somehow miraculously survives to see the end of the books, Stannis could make a good LC. I mean, he did kill his brother and all. And whoever is in power then could see that Stannis is of better use alive than dead...

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I mean, aren't the NW numbers less than the Wildlings? I don't see the queens men and the wildlings letting the NW take them down.

Hmm, yeah, but it's doubtful the Wildlings and the Queen's Men would form 1 front: they share a common cause against Ramsay, but after what happened with Wun Wun Werg Targ Dun Tar Garbl Garb I wouldn't be so sure. The Wildlings may also be rather reluctant fighting the Night's Watch, at least some of them, because they are more keen on keeping the Others off their backs.

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I’d bet on Thorne. Pyke is out of the picture, Mallister might be busy with the Weeper, Marsh would have to take the black for what he did. Also, since Thorne was absent, he may be taken not to be complicit in the assassination.

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