New LC?

[StannisandDaeny]

You raise a good point, they don't mean much as a military force. My real concern is that Ser Justin Massey, Tycho the Banker and a couple of Stannis' men are heading back to their ship at Eastwatch, and their mission (while doomed to fail) is pretty crucial to how things will play out. Despite there being few sworn brothers, if the next LC is someone who wants to comply with Ramsay's wishes 'to save the watch', there's still more than enough of them to overcome Stannis' men, stop him from getting any reinforcements and taking valuable hostages for Ramsay. If that happens, Stannis is out of the game and Ramsay has almost no one left opposing him really.

[Free Northman]

You raise a good point, they don't mean much as a military force. My real concern is that Ser Justin Massey, Tycho the Banker and a couple of Stannis' men are heading back to their ship at Eastwatch, and their mission (while doomed to fail) is pretty crucial to how things will play out. Despite there being few sworn brothers, if the next LC is someone who wants to comply with Ramsay's wishes 'to save the watch', there's still more than enough of them to overcome Stannis' men, stop him from getting any reinforcements and taking valuable hostages for Ramsay. If that happens, Stannis is out of the game and Ramsay has almost no one left opposing him really.

I think too much effort has gone into introducing Tycho Nestoris - let's face it, he seemed kind of out of place in a medieval, snowbound warzone - to just have him die meaninglessly at the Wall. Tycho was necessary to bring the Iron Bank into the equation, and he will make it back to Braavos else his role was pointless, have no fear.

More likely, Selyse and Shireen are in for some tough times, but I always considered them to be superflous to the story, so that would not be a great loss, in the bigger scheme of things.

[Babeldygob]

First let's take a look at Jon Snow's 'death', we can safely assume he's either:

• dead;
  
• severely injured to the point where he's in a coma;
  

If he's dead, several things can/will happen:

• he wargs into Ghost; his body is put in one of the ice cells;(most likely)
  
• he wargs into Ghost; his body is burned;(less likely)
  
• he wargs into Ghost; his body is disposed in some other way;(unlikely)
  
• Melisandre performs some kind of ritual to bring him back immediately;(very unlikely, but can happen at a later point)
  
• Some kind of prophecy is fulfilled making him return immediately;(crackpot, but can happen at a later point if he's Azor Ahai or something)
  

Either way, he won't be commanding anything anytime soon. If he's brought back to life immediately he won't have any connection time with Ghost, which seems necessary and very likely at this point, because he still needs to accept that he's a warg, something Bran, Rickon and Arya have already done. If he's dead a new commander must be chosen. If he survived the stabbing, he'll be unable to command, so there will have to be chosen a commander in his stead until Jon is back on his feet. Given the circumstances, a new commander might be chosen all together. I also think that there are more than enough men of the Night's Watch who like Jon Snow, they have chosen him for a reason.

We have to look at what happened before we can debate who will be chosen. Bowen Marsh and his lackeys just killed a LC. Justified or not, it matters not. They will get comeuppance. Nobody will choose them the new commander, because he will either be killed by the Wildlings, because they like Jon and the chance Jon has given them. or he will be disqualified and be put in a cell until a new commander has been chosen.

There is a chance a battle ensues between the Wildlings and the Night's Watch, but I think this will not happen. Why? Because of Melisandre. I think the Night's Watch and the Wildlings both fear and respect her too much. Melisandre will assume the role Jon Snow had as the person who links the Night's Watch and the Wildlings behind a common goal, because she will see that if the Night's Watch and the Wildlings battle, The Wall can't be defended. She will also make sure that Bowen Marsh can't do anything more to destroy the Nights Watch, she might even burn him(please). She'll make sure a new LC will have to be chosen, I'm not sure if she favors someone for that role.

I think that what Ramsay wants will be a big point in the elections and the LC will be chosen accordingly, I don't think anything will happen until a new commander has been chosen.

Now the contenders(everyone who has been mentioned in this thread):

• Bowen Marsh(If his group of followers is large enough and if he isn't killed, this could happen);
  
• Tormund Giantsbane(He's a wildling, nobody will choose him);
  
• Val(She's a woman and a wildling, nobody will choose her);
  
• Melisandre(I don't think she would want to be LC, she's also a woman and doesn't wear the black);
  
• Denys Mallister(He has the most allies that would want him, if Cotter Pyke is out of the picture, he is most likely the next LC);
  
• Cotter Pyke(If he somehow comes back from Hardhome, he'll be a serious contender, next to Denys Mallister);
  
• Alliser Thorne(If Denys Mallister is unable to be chosen, he'll be a serious contender, even though few people like him);
  
• Dolorous Edd(Even if nobody else turns up, I think this is very unlikely, but he'll contend either way);
  
• The Blackfish(He doesn't wear the Black and we don't know where he is);
  
• Stannis Baratheon(If he comes back from Winterfell and there still isn't a new LC, I think he will choose one or make himself LC, we saw his impatience last time);
  
• Jaime Lannister(He's occupied elsewhere at the moment and he doesn't wear the Black);
  
• Glendon Hewett(He might be a contender from East Watch, but would GRRM make someone we have barely seen the new LC? I think not);
  

The person with the least ifs is Denys Mallister, so he has a very good chance. If we don't count all the ifs I think the order from most likely to least likely is:

Denys Mallister ~ Cotter Pyke

Bowen Marsh ~ Alliser Thorne

Melisandre

Stannis Baratheon

Glendon Hewett

Tormund Giantsbane

Val

Dolorous Edd

Personally I think that Stannis Baratheon will make himself LC because again the Night's Watch won't be able to choose properly and this time there's no Jon Snow to save the day.

[StannisandDaeny]

So Stannis will give up his claim to the throne just to become LC? Seems unlikely.

[Babeldygob]

No he will be both aka Night's King. He already sats at the Nightfort. It would fit.

[JonTargaryenW/Viserion4WIN]

The Watch is falling apart but maybe Jon surviving his attempted murder, much as Bran survived his fall, will instill some level of fear and respect of the Bastard Wolf in the men of the NW. This way he will retain his role as 998th. But then again I only half believe this could happen, maybe less.

Whoever becomes 999th will not have a grasp on the enormity of the threat from the North. Jon knew more than anyone that winter is coming but he was one of the few non wildlings that had even experienced wights or white walkers.

I don't know who the new LC will be but if I was a crow I'd put my vote in for The Hound. Sandor Clegane is not a brother now but he should repent by taking the black and unleashing hell on the others.

[Ser Coffee The Bold]

I don't think Jon Snow will die with Melisandre's magic so near. She obviously sees him as an important person in her visions. While the wildlings are at odds with Mel and her powers, the attempted murder of Jon by some NW surely aligns their interests more than a fight between a giant and a knight divide them.

The bigger problem is the survival of the NW.

[StannisandDaeny]

No he will be both aka Night's King. He already sats at the Nightfort. It would fit.

Yuck. Stannis turning out to be the ultimate bad guy is like a worst case scenario. He seemed quite eager to hold back the Others when he first arrived at the wall, but having read your theory I must admit it's a possibility, especially considering the 'bittersweet ending' GRRM was talking about... Still I'd even rather just see him die some stupid death than turn out to be the ultimate threat to Westeros x_x

[Babeldygob]

Yuck. Stannis turning out to be the ultimate bad guy is like a worst case scenario. He seemed quite eager to hold back the Others when he first arrived at the wall, but having read your theory I must admit it's a possibility, especially considering the 'bittersweet ending' GRRM was talking about... Still I'd even rather just see him die some stupid death than turn out to be the ultimate threat to Westeros x_x

I get why you wouldn't like it as much as Stannis being the good guy, but I feel that GRRM has yet to introduce a someone who will be the true threat to the realm. I mean The Others are sure a very big threat, but they are nameless, unrelatable creatures. It also feels late to introduce a new character that would be the main threat to the realm. That's why I think either Stannis, as the Night's King or Ramsey/Roose Bolton will take up that cup. But I don't think Ramsey/Roose deserves or could handle such a major role.

Personally I feel that it would be very satisfying to see a good guy I rooted for turning ultimately bad. I would feel like rooting for him even then because I so love his character, but I would know that he is also evil and I shouldn't be rooting for him. Seems right up GRRM's ally.

[Alexander Stark]

If it took a long time to get LC998, then LC999 will take weeks, especially with Stannis not locking everyone in, then the guy will die almost straight away and then they'll be sat wondering about LC1000 for weeks, at which point Jon walks through the door with Ghost, Thorne is stood going 'Warg Monster etc' Mormonts raven pops up and Jon is LC again wooooo

[Babeldygob]

I don't get everyone's preoccupation with the number 1000. We know GRRM. Who says there will ever be a 1000th commander? He might just make the 1000th commander a wimp too.

[LordDolorousEdd]

I don't get everyone's preoccupation with the number 1000. We know GRRM. Who says there will ever be a 1000th commander? He might just make the 1000th commander a wimp too.

I agree particularly because Sam said something about a mix up with the counting of LC...

everyone at castle black is going to go nut!!! So dont know how the remains will be rebuilt.

personally I want it to be Dolorous Edd....

[Walder Waters]

Isn't 999th LC an even cooler number than 1000th?

Possibly there will be no one with the requiered majority for a long time, so there will be only an acting LC until John or whoever will end up as the 999th and the series last LC.

[houseHB]

Yes, we will see a 999th lord commander, I feel like Azor Ahai (Jon Snow) will be the 1000th lord commander (number has special meaning?) and lead a united army of Westeros against the Others.

[Arkash]

Like I said on the first page, I'd bet for Denys Mallister.

[John Reynolds]

Has there been any discussion regarding the possible chaos Jon's assassination might've sparked? I finished the book thinking it likely the wildlings turned on the Night's Watch and queen's men. Or that if violence didn't immediately erupt the bigotry that led to the attempt on Jon's life simmered to a subsequent boiling point.

[Whore of Tarth]

Val will be the 1000th LC.

[MtnLion]

• At some point Daenerys will return and expose Stannis as Azor Ahai as a fraud. Stannis will retreat to the gift that Jon gave him of the Nightfort. He will become the Lord Commander, having taken the black upon arrival. (Someone said he was eager to take the fight to the Others, but it seems to me that he was more eager to fight with the wildlings.) Melisandre will be obsessed with her visions of Brynden Rivers and Bran, thinking them servants of the enemy, and will convince Stannis that they must establish a relationship with the others to fight against them. Selyse and Shireen will slowly waste away during this long winter, while Stannis and Melisandre build their strength, and corrupt the Night's Watch by holding them under magical spells. There we have the antagonists.
  
• Jon will get resurrected, most likely by Bran. Bran has some very powerful powers that he is just beginning to explore. His watch will be done, and Bran would have informed him of his inheritance. He will resist, but int he end he must take up the reins of power to lead the armies of Westeros against the group of antagonists.
  
• There will be other maneuvering between parties of power, but all of them will unite behind Jon, in the end. If they don't, the final POV will be Tyrion's as he reviews the gravestones and reflects on how the occupant lived and died.
  

[Apoapsis]

On a related note, who is the acting Lord Commander when the Lord Commander himself is incapacitated? Surely they must have a system for that?

The First Ranger? Oops, he's been missing for years.

The First Steward? Oops, he's the one who murdered/tried to murder the Lord Commander.

[Arkash]

The First Builder ? =D