[TWoW Spoilers] Stannis, Winterfell & comparisons to Summer Hall

[victim]

"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."

At Summer Hall, three armies descended on Robert separately and he defeated each at different times of the day. I just read the Theon sample chapter and I can't help but feel that the exact same thing is happening to Stannis. Robert gained a lot of fame due to his conquering of the three armies at Summer Hall, and he captured two of the three Lords who came against him. Like this, three armies are marching against Stannis as of the beginning of The Winds of Winter. The forces Roose Bolton has sent; Ser Stupid is Hosteen Frey, Lord Too-Fat is Wyman Manderly and the Bastard is Ramsay Bolton. These men are a far-cry from fabled battle commanders, unlike Stannis.

"Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper.

Theon knows these men and claims that each army will descend on Stannis' forces separately -- this is the most important part, because people believe that the Frey and Bolton forces aren't smart enough to combine with one another; and we as readers have the foresight to know where Manderly's intentions truly are. I have a hard time believing that any of these armies will be able to defeat Stannis separately unless they combine their forces, which it seems as though it won't happen. Further more, I always got the impression that when the Manderly's were clashing with the Frey's at Winterfell during ADwD, Roose sent them out to win or die, in a bit of a win-win situation.

Stannis has definitely overcome worse odds and is far too proud to surrender to the likes of Frey or Bolton. I'm trying really hard and I can't imagine him being outsmarted by anyone, let alone Boltons and Freys. He has to win, right? I suppose George has surprised us before.

This all may be just wishful thinking on my part but I also believe that Ramsay's note to Jon was a lie, with a small part of me wanting it to be a trick played by Mance, but I digress. There are just too many similarities to what is happening to Stannis right now to what happened to Robert at Summer Hall during the War of the Usurper for it to go a different way.

P.S. I'm sorry if this comparison has already been made, I just thought of it and figured it was quite interesting.

[Jabronius Maximus]

Its not wishful thinking at all. The general consensus on this board (from what Ive read) is that Ramsay wrote that letter out of desperation. In that case the Manderlys have already turned, and the Bolton/Freys are done for (or are in the process of losing), and Ramsay is out of options. FWIW we'll have the answer to this early in twow although still a few years away.

That's a nice comparison to Summerhall. But given how much credit Stannis has received for other notable victories, I highly doubt his victory will be as celebrated as Roberts was.

[Dornish Bannerman]

I think Stannis will take Winterfell, win the battle and I think kill Roose. Ramsay will get away, but no one will follow him with Roose dead.

[victim]

I agree that Ramsay is far from dead. A fight has been building between him and Jon for far too long for it to not happen. I suppose the same could have been said of Theon and Robb though.

[Babeldygob]

I think you are completely right, nice you picked up on that. The letter from Ramsay may not have been a lie, rather things he believes are true. It may even be that Stannis sent the letter, so Jon would come down from The Wall and help him take Winterfell, which will still be very hard either way. Yea, it's deceipt, but I wouldn't put it past Stannis to do that.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Did Stannis fought in Summerhall? At that point, I don't think he was holding Storm's End yet.

And yes, the letter is a fake, or at least something that Ramsay believes it's true. If he was able to write and send it, I'm sure Roose is either dead or incapacitated.

[L dragonknight]

that letter was from the bastard all right. i think he wrote it just to get a raise out of jon plus, he's the last stark that can mess with his claim to winterfell. all of the north know jon to be robb's heir.

[Lord Damian]

If stannis can win this, he will be remembered in the North, Manderly, if he jumps to Stannis's side when he leaves the Castle, will reinforce Stannnis well. Also, remember, Manderly has a Glover that will have large forces including hundreds of heavy horse that is either still at White Harbor or has come close to Winterfell, waiting for this moment to strike. (this means Rickon might be securred by Davos, we just do not know it yet.)

[Rolex Baratheon]

Inb4 someone comes up with a ridiculously hopeless argument that Stannis isn't a good battle commander. xD

Now let's see whats going down at the Battle. Manderlys and Freys outside in the snow. After what went down in the dining hall I doubt Manderly, concealed from the Boltons' sight, will even wait before butchering the Freys.

[Apple the Great]

Firstly, I think the letter is a lie. I could be wrong, so please correct me if I am, but surely simple chronology is enough to say that? If the letter was sent before the end of ADwD, then a battle that hasn't been fought by a Theon chapter in TWoW can't have been lost. Unless GRRM is screwing around with chronology, which I think is unlikely. Stannis, for all his faults, is a proven military commander, and he is right in that his men are probably more desperate. Also, remember that Ser Rodriks forces outnumbered Ramsey's forces at Winterfell, but Ramsey took them unaware and they routed. Wyman is going to turn on the Freys and Ramsey during the battle. Ramsey is as green as summer grass and the Freys are known cowards and will not stand if they are being attacked by both Manderly and Stannis. This battle is a foregone conclusion I feel, but the battle against Roose will be more difficult.

Roose, it must be said, isn't noted as a particularly gifted commander, but he's not stupid. Perhaps something involving a metaphorical Trojan horse, so perhaps Wyman Manderly and Stannis' army dressing in the uniforms of the Freys and Boltons, going back to Winterfell as if they were victorious, with Stannis 'in chains' to make it look convincing, then once inside, the slaughter starts? I don't think Stannis would entirely like the idea, but he's occasionally pragmatic, and if it means him taking Winterfell we can compare it to his actions at Storm's End and Renly.

[TheBastardofBluegrass]

I think you are completely right, nice you picked up on that. The letter from Ramsay may not have been a lie, rather things he believes are true. It may even be that Stannis sent the letter, so Jon would come down from The Wall and help him take Winterfell, which will still be very hard either way. Yea, it's deceipt, but I wouldn't put it past Stannis to do that.

Is it possible Theon sent the letter?

[Tormund Giant*****]

Its been talked about a fair bit and it seems the most likely outcome to me too. I think to some extent Stannis will fake his death/losing the battle, with him and Manderlay slaughtering the Freys then Manderlay presenting Stannis' sword to the Boltons before all hell breaks loose.

A lot kind of depends on Davos turning up with Rickon in time. Part of me thinks that GRR could do something horrible RW style and let us watch Stannis and Manderlay destroy each other with Davos being too late. But please George, dont.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Its been talked about a fair bit and it seems the most likely outcome to me too. I think to some extent Stannis will fake his death/losing the battle, with him and Manderlay slaughtering the Freys then Manderlay presenting Stannis' sword to the Boltons before all hell breaks loose.

A lot kind of depends on Davos turning up with Rickon in time. Part of me thinks that GRR could do something horrible RW style and let us watch Stannis and Manderlay destroy each other with Davos being too late. But please George, dont.

yeah i think it is going to be a battle of misdirection and outsmarting from Stannis and Ramsay. Ramsay will somehow escape, because Jon Snow has to be the one to kill him.. I can't wait for Longclaw to go straight through that bastard's heart. Esp if Jon is made stronger by whatever Mel/The Wall's hidden magic are going to do to save Jon from the stabbing.

Ugh the sample chapters just making the waiting that much harder. It's like an appetizer of one shrimp then you have to wait 3 years for the entree :(

[Suzanna Stormborn]

But why did Stannis say to send the fake Arya to Jon? he either has not heard that Jon was attacked by a mutiny or Jon is already Ok again. the chronology is so messed up!

[Ded As Ned]

But why did Stannis say to send the fake Arya to Jon? he either has not heard that Jon was attacked by a mutiny or Jon is already Ok again. the chronology is so messed up!

Stannis & co. are unaware of the events at the wall with Jon, as you said.

[Montey14]

lets not forget that the Theon chapter was supposed to be in ADWD...so it's quite possible that it happend before the chapter with Jon being stabbed...It's also possible that the trjan horse theory is correct...perhaps stannis let himself be captured only to reek havoc once inside winterfell....also...Stannis doesn't know Davos is alive...perhaps we'll get a chapter from Davos before the battle of winterfell and find out whats going on with Rickon and or Howland Reed.

[TheNorthernWarrior]

My guess is that Roose sent out the 3 armies and has already left for the Dreadfort. Why would he stay at Winterfell at this point? If his army wins, Ramsay stays to rule Winterfell with fake Arya. If his army loses or something goes bad, well he is out of the heat and back home in his seat of power where no one is in any position to besiege him. It would most likely take years to starve him out of the Dreadfort since it should be fully stocked for a long winter (plus bonus pillaging of Stark/Hornwood land). Roose is cunning, not stupid and everyone can see on the face value that this move of sending the armies out is stupid (as per Stannis). We have seen Roose make similar moves before, bleeding his own apparent forces, he is very sly in how he uses his armies in ways that would look innocent on the surface but fulfills his actual hidden plan. My guess is right now his actual plan is just to get himself, his leeches, and his fate wife home.

I think what happens is that Freys arrive first, fight, try to retreat or think the Manderly has come to help, only to have him turn and completely destroy the Freys. Ramsay enters the battle but to late to prevent his men from the trap, but soon enough to avoid capture. He runs back to Winterfell to find Roose gone. In anger & panic he writes the letter (or is held captive by Mance who then makes him write the letter).

[addicted to snow]

I think roose has yet to show all his cards... I think he has some sorcery up his sleeve, based on some subtle observations that Arya made when she was Roose's cup-bearer in Harrenhall...

[DExit]

I actually like Roose, he is the perfect badguy, i am always wondering when he was first hatching the plan to take out the Starks... But, leaving WF is a sign of weakness to the other northern lords, they will probably abandon him for Stannis in a blink if he isn't present.

[The Iron Suitor]

I actually like Roose, he is the perfect badguy, i am always wondering when he was first hatching the plan to take out the Starks... But, leaving WF is a sign of weakness to the other northern lords, they will probably abandon him for Stannis in a blink if he isn't present.

I agree. After reading some of the other posts, the trojan horse idea sounds good to me. Wyman after proving himself to Stannis will tell him once Roose falls all of the Northern Lords will flock to him. Stannis will then go to Winterfell as a captive and when Wyman brings him in front of Roose he will kill him and the Manderlys will kill any oppossed forces.

I don't think Roose will flee because he knows this is it the Starks won't stop until he is dead even if they have to wait until Spring. Roose knows if he does not defeat Stannis now he will die. But in adition no one in the North is taking Stannis seriously, they believe he has a depleted force who can't survive in the North.