What is Roose Bolton's endgame?

[lupis42]

Of course that unexpectedly fell to pieces and he's fucked.

Tyrion changed the world with a single shot.

[Toccs]

I don't see why the idea of Roose assuming the role as Warden of the North is so ridiculous. With the war more or less over and the Lannisters in bed with the Tyrells, he had allied himself with the most powerful individual in the realm. Every single Stark is believed to be missing or dead. The North would be fools to rise up against House Bolton if all had gone to plan- Tywin ruling as Regent with Northern hostages and moulding Tommen into the leader he wants, while Roose takes some hostages for himself just to be sure. Unfortunately, Roose's only son is a sadist but he made the best of the situation and tied the know with the "last living Stark", securing full control over the North. And he also holds Moat Cailin, so if the Northerners were willing to sacrifice their hostages to try and remove the Roose, he could send off a raven asking for reinforcements, who wouldn't be held up at the castle.

Of course that unexpectedly fell to pieces and he's fucked.

But that's the exact kind of "southron thinking" that I'm talking about. To Tywin it seemed perfectly logical that the Northern lords would accept Roose as their liege because the Freys hold their kinsman hostage and Roose for all intents and purposes held Ned Stark's last daughter hostage.

But that's not how things work in the North. The Starks in general and Ned in particular had made a point of fostering a deep loyalty with all of their bannermen. The Greatjon, Wylis Manderly and any of the other hostages would gladly have forfeited their lives if it meant saving Ned's daughter we as readers know it, their families knew it and Roose Bolton must surely have known it.

To pull off something like the Red Wedding where every major Northern family suffered losses and then think that marching any army of Freys into the North would subdue resistance reeks of ignorance.

[TheFlayedMan]

I don't doubt the Northerner's loyalty and don't misjudge me from my avatar/name/signature, I too support House Stark over any other. But look at the situation in ADwD. There is no better time to turn on Roose now, pent up in Winterfell with Stannis's army sitting outside the wall. If they would happily forfeit their lives for the remaining Starks (ie- Arya) why did they do nothing to stop the marriage? Because first and foremost, they care for their well-being and that of their houses. I have no doubt that many are plotting to plant a sword in the neck of Roose and Ramsay and whoever else is one their side, but at the moment they are not acting.

And if the North decided to once again become independent by offing Roose (in the process losing heirs, children etc.), Lannister/Tyrell/Frey/countless other lords would march an army up and through the natural choke point that normally blocks enemies from entering into the North as it's being held by Boltons and destroy the resistance. Of course, if the Northerners did rise up they would likely try to take Moat Cailin, but even if they took it, the combined forces of the Southerners would be vastly outnumber them and they could utilise techniques the Ironborn used to storm it.

I think you overestimate just how loyal the Northerners are to the Starks.

[Toccs]

I'm not saying that the Northerners would try to become independent again, I'm just saying that they would not have accepted Roose, Ramsay and Freys standing over them for very long.

Don't misjudge me, I am in no way a Stark supporter. I think it is entirely possible to replace the Starks as Lords of the North, but the way that the Boltons/Freys/Lannisters have attempted to do it is so clearly doomed to failure that it is laughable.

. . . and I think that you are underestimating just how loyal the Northern Lords are to the Starks.

[Fraemakr]

Maybe he's dying and just hoping to take everyone down with him? Could be why he's such a fiend for leechings, to stay the prgress of some disease.

That's not a bad point. After all, when Cecil Rhodes found out he had a terminal illness, he set about leaving a legacy worthy of himself, so conquered vast territories in Africa. This could be a similar case, and I hardly believe that he is siding with the Lannisters out of loyalty to the Iron Throne. It is said multiple times that House Bolton were once kings, and the Starks were their main competition for the throne of the North. Now, with the Starks out of the picture, he is maybe envisioning having the Boltons as Kings of the North.

[tyrions sliced nose]

It is laughable, just like Balon Greyjoy thinking that he could've done the same. Like the iron islands ruling the north? are you serious? Shows how stupid Balon was and i agree you would think Roose was alot smarter than this. makes no sense.

[namtose]

I'm not saying that the Northerners would try to become independent again, I'm just saying that they would not have accepted Roose, Ramsay and Freys standing over them for very long.

Don't misjudge me, I am in no way a Stark supporter. I think it is entirely possible to replace the Starks as Lords of the North, but the way that the Boltons/Freys/Lannisters have attempted to do it is so clearly doomed to failure that it is laughable.

. . . and I think that you are underestimating just how loyal the Northern Lords are to the Starks.

There is no quesion that Roose's plan was tied into Tywin Lannisters control of the iron throne, and a grand alliance of the Freys (Riverlands), Boltons (north) and Lannister-Martell control of Westeros. It's a perfect plan and with the armies available enforceable. Tywin's plan of marriages of Tyrion-Sansa, Mycella in Dorn and LF- Lysa ties up all of Westros in a Lannister web. It was brilliant and would have worked except Tywin is killed as is his brother Kevan (Jamie is off somewhere and Cersci is a loony.)

Roose could still hold the north using Arya and the hostages because there is no rallying point (remember everybody knows that Bran, Rickon are dead and that 'Arya' is heir to Winterfel.) Except Stannis who has a legitament clain to the iron throne arrives with an army and has rallied the tribes.

Roose has no game plan anymore except survival, Tywin's death and Stannis' arrival ended any good chance he had. damn that dwarf!!!

[Toccs]

It's a perfect plan and with the armies available enforceable. Tywin's plan of marriages of Tyrion-Sansa, Mycella in Dorn and LF- Lysa ties up all of Westros in a Lannister web. It was brilliant and would have worked except Tywin is killed as is his brother Kevan

Well for starters, the majority of that plan didn't have anything to do with Tywin. Tyrion made the Myrcella/Dorne pact and Littlefinger personally suggested that he marry Lysa as was his plan all along. So to give Tywin credit for such a "grand plan" is wrong.

Secondly, Wyman Manderly already knew that Bran and Rickon were alive, do you really think that he would have done nothing with this information if Davos hadn't showed up? No, Wyman was palnning on fetching Rickon from Skagos and reclaiming the North because of his loyalty to the Starks, Davos' arrival just allowed him the opportunity to get his hostage son returned and retrieve Rickon without actually having to take the risk. Considering that half the North hadn't sworn fealty to Bolton, once the word got out that Manderly had a Stark heir, things would have quickly turned into a full blown rebellion.

[jlk7e]

Ramsay is essential to his hold of the North though, that's the point. If someone kills Ramsay, then there is no Bolton married to the "Stark" in Winterfell and Roose can't marry her because he is married to Fat Walda. Any long term Bolton claim to the North is hinged on Ramsay and everyone in the North hates Ramsay.

You think Roose would scruple at Fat Walda suffering an unfortunate accident that leaves him free to marry again? Roose Bolton's whole MO is about getting people who are inconvenient to him killed. Marrying Walda was a means to get close to the Freys and get some funds in the bargain. He's resigned to not having an heir with her, and the other benefits are already achieved. So if Ramsay dies, and Roose needs another Stark marriage to strengthen his claims, I don't see why he'd let Fat Walda stand in the way.

[namtose]

Secondly, Wyman Manderly already knew that Bran and Rickon were alive, do you really think that he would have done nothing with this information if Davos hadn't showed up? No, Wyman was palnning on fetching Rickon from Skagos and reclaiming the North because of his loyalty to the Starks, Davos' arrival just allowed him the opportunity to get his hostage son returned and retrieve Rickon without actually having to take the risk. Considering that half the North hadn't sworn fealty to Bolton, once the word got out that Manderly had a Stark heir, things would have quickly turned into a full blown rebellion.

The original question was what was Roose end plan. Roose has no knowledge that Rickon is still alive, as he had no knowledge that Stannis would arrive in the north, that he has a fake 'Arya' or that Tywin Lannister would be killed by his own son. There is a big difference in being warden of the north when you have a combine lannister-martell-frey army to back you without a heir to winterfel to contend with and what he has to deal with now. truely the best laid plans of Lannisters and Boltons often go astray.

[namtose]

You think Roose would scruple at Fat Walda suffering an unfortunate accident that leaves him free to marry again? Roose Bolton's whole MO is about getting people who are inconvenient to him killed. Marrying Walda was a means to get close to the Freys and get some funds in the bargain. He's resigned to not having an heir with her, and the other benefits are already achieved. So if Ramsay dies, and Roose needs another Stark marriage to strengthen his claims, I don't see why he'd let Fat Walda stand in the way.

True but now with the north in arms he needs the frey swords. It's survival now.

[Bushido]

To survive on his own terms,and persevere with same of more than when he entered the war.

Do Boltons want North? Certainly. Was it a plan to get a hold on it,from the beginning? No.

[Toccs]

The original question was what was Roose end plan. Roose has no knowledge that Rickon is still alive, as he had no knowledge that Stannis would arrive in the north, that he has a fake 'Arya' or that Tywin Lannister would be killed by his own son. There is a big difference in being warden of the north when you have a combine lannister-martell-frey army to back you without a heir to winterfel to contend with and what he has to deal with now. truely the best laid plans of Lannisters and Boltons often go astray.

But Roose must know that Bran and Rickon are alive. He knows from Ramsay's own mouth that he was the one to sack Winterfell, it is highly likely that he knows the full details of what transpired at Winterfell.

I can't back this up with quotes off the top of my head, but my impression was that Roose was well aware that "Arya" was a fake, which was the whole reason why he had Theon (who would know a fake if he saw one) swear to her identity at the wedding.

Stannis was known to be at the Wall well before Roose crossed Moat Cailin.

[jlk7e]

namtose - Roose of course knows that Bran and Rickon are still alive, because Ramsay knows - as Reek, he was the one who came up with the whole idea of faking their deaths in the first place. I think Roose may even mention it in one of this conversations with Ramsay. I think he also strongly suspects that he has a fake Arya, although he doesn't look into it because he doesn't care or want to know for certain. In terms of needing the Freys, that's why Fat Walda's death will be an accident. Even so, it looks like he's in the process of killing all the Freys, anyway, by sending them out to fight Stannis, in patented Roose Bolton fashion.

More broadly, I don't think Bolton has any real long-term plan. He thinks in the short to medium term. I also think he may very well have underestimated the long-term loyalty to the Starks, because he himself is not loyal to them, and he assumes other men are more like him than they are. But maybe not. He brings the Ryswells, the Dustins, and Arnolf Karstark around to him easily enough. And while everyone seems to think the Umber uncles are really pro-Stark, those dudes are creepy and scary - I think assuming they can be bought, especially while the Freys have the Greatjon, is reasonable. The Glovers are a non-factor because of the Ironborn, and the Tallharts, Cerwyns, and Hornwoods are so decimated by the war that they'll follow whoever. Who does that leave? It leaves the Manderlys, whom I'm certain Roose underestimates. It leaves the Mormonts ,who are far away and not very powerful on their own. It leaves the Mountain Clans, whom I'd guess Roose underestimates as well. And it leaves the Lockes and the Flints, whom we know almost nothing about. Roose knows that none of these people will be particularly loyal to him, but he thinks as long as Bran and Rickon don't resurface, they won't really have any other option (neglecting, of course, the dagger over his head in the form of Tyrion and Sansa, which he perhaps doesn't take seriously. The Northern lords won't embrace him, but they'll acquiesce in him given the lack of alternatives.

And this plan doesn't seem to be working too badly, at first. Most of the northern houses do bend the knee to Tommen and accept Roose's leadership, and he leads some successful operations against the Ironborn. The Northern lords basically accept Jeyne Poole as Arya Stark, and grudgingly acquiesce in the system. Two things, I think, make this untenable in the long run - Ramsay's disgusting cruelty and Stannis's arrival in the North. But by the time Roose realizes that these things are going to be a problem, he's already committed to the position he's in. He has to make the best of it -- by defeating Stannis through treachery, by bleeding off unreliable "allies" like Manderly, by hoping that Ramsay doesn't kill fake Arya before getting a baby out of her. If he can kill enough people while remaining alive himself, Roose may be able to hold on.

[Jamie Lannister]

But Roose must know that Bran and Rickon are alive. He knows from Ramsay's own mouth that he was the one to sack Winterfell, it is highly likely that he knows the full details of what transpired at Winterfell.

I can't back this up with quotes off the top of my head, but my impression was that Roose was well aware that "Arya" was a fake, which was the whole reason why he had Theon (who would know a fake if he saw one) swear to her identity at the wedding.

Stannis was known to be at the Wall well before Roose crossed Moat Cailin.

Yeah, Roose certainly knows she's fake, and that Bran and Rickon are alive. He has to "correct" Ramsay about it twice, and even straight up states that no northerners would follow House Bolton if they knew "the truth." Right before Ramsay says he'll kill the boys if they do show up.

I think Roose has an endgame. We have only his word (spoken to Ramsay's pet) that he's okay with letting Ramsay take over the north, and that he doesn't expect to live much longer. I think he's going to surprise us all with his next move, and that Ramsay will be on the receiving end of it for what he did to Domeric.

[Burning down the House]

Well one thing that always stood out to me was in the chapter when he took Theon away from Ramsay, Roose says something along the lines of "I will not live to see another son to manhood". That was said separately from his talk of Ramsay killing any children by Fat Walda. I always wondered why he would think he wouldn't live long enough since earlier it was mentioned that he was over 40, but that is hardly elderly even by Westerosi standards.

You said it right there. Ramsey will kill any children he has becasue they will bump him as Roose's heir.

Do you think it could be the death of Domeric (and at Ramsay's hands) that caused this nihilistic turn in Roose?

I have a separate theory that could tie into this, that the Reek who died during aCoK was not the original Reek but was actually Domeric. Which could not only explain why Roose is willing to bring everything even his own house to ruin and why he seemed to show a soft spot for Theon's plight even if he wasn't willing to fully put a stop to it.

This is totally out of left field. Do you really think Roose would let his only trueborn son be treated like Reak?

[Winterfell is Burning]

I'm not he had a lot of options. Once he decided Robb was going to lose and to betray him his only option is to try and secure the North.

He begun to betray Robb while he was still winning- sending his men last in the battle, sending 3000 men not loyal to him to die, etc.

[One was naked.]

As others have indicated here, I wouldn't confuse the way things have gone for RB with how he intended for them to go. Had he known that the Lannisters would implode the way they have, I don't think he would have turned on Robb.

More to your question, RB is a guy who takes a much longer view of things than most, which is consistent with his absence of passion. When the rest of the north was crowning Robb in a fever, he recognized that it was unlikely that the winner of Kings Landing would let him keep his head. So, with the north likely to wind up subjugated under a new warden, the only way to assure that he wouldn't go down with the rest of Robb's bannermen was to deliver him up. In a word, I think Roose's endgame is survival.

[Winterfell is Burning]

He seemed pretty well in control of things until Stannis and Mance showed up. And for that matter, he seemed to have a pretty good grasp of how to keep the Karstarks happy. And the Dustins and Ryswells. And a faction of the Umbers. The rest may not love him, but the only one that looked ready to do anything about it was Manderly, and that's only after they figured out to get his son safe, get Rickon, and secure the support of Stannis.

So but for the unexpected event of Stannis showing up, the North was hardly in open rebellion. Probably he figured things would eventually have calmed down, the rest of the Stark kids would remain disappeared, and everything would turn out for him.

Manderly was always plotting to backstab him. Once he did get his son back, even without Stannis, was essentially game over for Roose, who'd have to face an opponent more respected, just as cunning and certainly richer than he was.

[Winterfell is Burning]

The original question was what was Roose end plan. Roose has no knowledge that Rickon is still alive, as he had no knowledge that Stannis would arrive in the north, that he has a fake 'Arya' or that Tywin Lannister would be killed by his own son. There is a big difference in being warden of the north when you have a combine lannister-martell-frey army to back you without a heir to winterfel to contend with and what he has to deal with now. truely the best laid plans of Lannisters and Boltons often go astray.

He does know that Bran and Rickon are alive. And I thought he knew that Arya was a fake, but I'm not sure on that one.

And, again, any plan that depends on a 59 year old man (old for Westeros standards) live forever or at least a very long time is a stupid one.