What is Roose Bolton's endgame?

[The Fallen]

The Fallen - I don't think Ramsay means a thing to Roose. If Stannis had won at the Blackwater, Roose would have been willing enough to see Ramsay executed for his crimes. He can always make more babies with Fat Walda.

You would think that would be the case. Except that Roose must want his House to continue. If he gives up Ramsay, who's his last heir, he then has to hope that he has children pretty quickly and that at least one is a male. And if he doesn't think he has much longer to live he's probably not comfortable that his young heir and his House can survive. Or if they do, that they'll continue to be a powerful House.

And just to reiterate, Roose is a smart guy. He has to know that he won't get much support from the majority of the North. If your control over a region is contingent on hostages, that's not a great plan. At best, your control will last while you have those hostages. But once they're gone you lose that leverage.

Either way, we'll see how it ultimately plays out.

[nordas]

Roose is a bit unlucky....the lannisters and freys are fucked up, their power is melting away...and stannis is also there, a great general, and he liberated the north, by defeating the ironmen...

I also never understand, why was he so openly backstabbing Robb. He could let the freys to do the dirty work, he should stay behind the curtains, like tywinn...He should know, that after the rw most of the northern lords would never accept him as a liege lord

[jlk7e]

Keep in mind from the perspective of the Lannister/Bolton alliance

Ned Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Caitlyn Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Robb Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Bran Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Rickon Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Arya Stark - Married into the Bolton family (obviously they know this isn't the case, but this is "Arya's" role in their scheme)

Sansa Stark - fled kings landing, most likely a refugee in Essos (they have no way of knowing she is working with Littlefinger

Although they are incorrect in their assumptions, from where they stand, the Bolton's are a fantastic choice to rule the north, so I'd say Roose's end game is to be the warden of the North and have "a quite rule over a quite people." (I probably butchered that quote, but I think that's the gist of what Roose said in ADwD

Roose knows that Theon and Ramsay did not kill Bran and Rickon. And when the Red Wedding happened, Sansa was safely in King's Landing, and married to Tywin Lannister's son.

If he did this then he has no way of coming back to the North in time to establish his power. He's not the sort of prisoner that the Lannisters would let go, so it'd be obvious that he made some sort of deal. As for killing Robb, trying to think back but I think that all of the people in the hall were killed. The Greatjon was outside, while Dacey died and Ser Wendel (?) took an arrow to the kn- er, mouth.

I think that it's irrelevant honestly, everyone knows who killed the Starks, and they have them at their tables anyway. That's why it was so smart to attack when he did. If there was a Stark left and his rebellion was like Robert's, with Stark claimants left over in his eyes, he would be fucked, but as it stands Roose is the best game in town, and after the war, no one really wants another battle against a man that has a son like Ramsay he can let loose on people just to avenge a corpse. The only people fighting are doing it subtly.

At the time Roose killed Robb, the intention was that Catelyn, who was right there, would be kept alive as a hostage. And I'd be rather surprised if Edmure, the Greatjon, Marq Piper, Patrek Mallister, and whoever else don't know that it was Roose who killed Robb. It is a very strange decision, when he could have held back. Perhaps he feared that the Freys were getting cold feet - recall that Catelyn is threatening to murder Walder Frey's grandson at the moment when Roose murders Robb. Perhaps he thought Frey would balk and simply take Robb hostage in order to save Jinglebell.

[Winterfell is Burning]

If he did this then he has no way of coming back to the North in time to establish his power. He's not the sort of prisoner that the Lannisters would let go, so it'd be obvious that he made some sort of deal. As for killing Robb, trying to think back but I think that all of the people in the hall were killed. The Greatjon was outside, while Dacey died and Ser Wendel (?) took an arrow to the kn- er, mouth.

I doubt they killed everyone that was in the hall, which would have been possibly thousands, certainy hundreds. And it still doesn't remove the possibility of a Frey telling someone.

[Jon of the Hudson]

At the time Roose killed Robb, the intention was that Catelyn, who was right there, would be kept alive as a hostage. And I'd be rather surprised if Edmure, the Greatjon, Marq Piper, Patrek Mallister, and whoever else don't know that it was Roose who killed Robb. It is a very strange decision, when he could have held back. Perhaps he feared that the Freys were getting cold feet - recall that Catelyn is threatening to murder Walder Frey's grandson at the moment when Roose murders Robb. Perhaps he thought Frey would balk and simply take Robb hostage in order to save Jinglebell.

I always thought Roose's killing of Robb was pretty straightforward: he does it to commit himself to the Lannister cause. Killing Robb tells Tywin that the Boltons will support Joffrey come hell or high water, because without the support of a strong regime in King's Landing, the Boltons will be in trouble (as occurs by ADwD). Sure, maybe Roose can go through a mummer's farce of being taken prisoner, bending the knee, etc. -- but then there could come an opportunity for him to turn cloak again, and he might take it. Tywin might not choose to name him Warden of the North in that case, as opposed to someone more popular among the northern houses. By participating in the RW, Roose pays the price to become Warden (implicitly or explicitly; IIRC we don't know specifically what he negotiated with Tywin). There are further risks, but they come with the pretty rare opportunity for House Bolton to raise itself up.

As for the rest of the northern houses -- most of their strength has been shredded in the southern wars, ironborn, etc. As has been pointed out, Roose retains the full loyalty of a few houses, which he might have considered enough to deter any threats in the short term. If some houses rise up out of loyalty to the dead Starks, he can always put them down and marry into the families / have King's Landing create new houses from his supporters.

Agreed things are looking bleaker for our villains by the time Roose comes back north of Moat Cailin, but at the time of the RW his play was a very reasonable, calculated risk.

[jlk7e]

I always thought Roose's killing of Robb was pretty straightforward: he does it to commit himself to the Lannister cause. Killing Robb tells Tywin that the Boltons will support Joffrey come hell or high water, because without the support of a strong regime in King's Landing, the Boltons will be in trouble (as occurs by ADwD). Sure, maybe Roose can go through a mummer's farce of being taken prisoner, bending the knee, etc. -- but then there could come an opportunity for him to turn cloak again, and he might take it. Tywin might not choose to name him Warden of the North in that case, as opposed to someone more popular among the northern houses. By participating in the RW, Roose pays the price to become Warden (implicitly or explicitly; IIRC we don't know specifically what he negotiated with Tywin). There are further risks, but they come with the pretty rare opportunity for House Bolton to raise itself up.

As for the rest of the northern houses -- most of their strength has been shredded in the southern wars, ironborn, etc. As has been pointed out, Roose retains the full loyalty of a few houses, which he might have considered enough to deter any threats in the short term. If some houses rise up out of loyalty to the dead Starks, he can always put them down and marry into the families / have King's Landing create new houses from his supporters.

Agreed things are looking bleaker for our villains by the time Roose comes back north of Moat Cailin, but at the time of the RW his play was a very reasonable, calculated risk.

I agree with you that, at least in part, Roose's decision to kill Robb is meant to send a signal to Tywin that he's Tywin's man. But in service of what? In service of his very risky ambition to become Warden of the North (and perhaps Lord Paramount of the North, as well), a position which will inevitably be highly tenuous. Why isn't he satisfied to just go home to the Dreadfort, murder Ramsay, and produce pale babies with Fat Walda? Why does he want this intense and thankless position? We've been told he's a cautious man, but this is a rash step. The safe, cautious path would be to delay his arrival at the Twins until after the Red Wedding, bend the knee to Tywin, and go home, even if Tywin doesn't make him Warden. Plus, what other options does Tywin have? It's obvious that, even with Roose committing to Tywin in such an irrevocable way, Tywin has made no commitment whatever to Roose, and, indeed, by his marriage of Tyrion to Sansa has indicated that he views Roose as only a temporary tool at best (and Roose knows about that marriage at the time of the Red Wedding). It just seems to me that when you're looking at the risk to reward ratio, the smartest thing to do is to avoid betraying Robb, and bend the knee to the Iron Throne after he's dead.

That's why I think that part of what Roose was doing is steadying the Freys, forcing them to commit fully to him.

[Castel]

Roose knows that Theon and Ramsay did not kill Bran and Rickon. And when the Red Wedding happened, Sansa was safely in King's Landing, and married to Tywin Lannister's son.

Which is why the timeline is important, did Roose know about the fake Starks before or after he joined with Tywin? Him sending his men to Duskendale seems to imply before.

At the time Roose killed Robb, the intention was that Catelyn, who was right there, would be kept alive as a hostage. And I'd be rather surprised if Edmure, the Greatjon, Marq Piper, Patrek Mallister, and whoever else don't know that it was Roose who killed Robb. It is a very strange decision, when he could have held back. Perhaps he feared that the Freys were getting cold feet - recall that Catelyn is threatening to murder Walder Frey's grandson at the moment when Roose murders Robb. Perhaps he thought Frey would balk and simply take Robb hostage in order to save Jinglebell.

Nobles aren't idiots. They may know what they know but without any strength in the field and with some of their relatives still hostages I think it doesn't matter at all.

[JoeJoe]

How does the crannogmen feature in Boltons Endgame.

[Gurkhal]

How does the crannogmen feature in Boltons Endgame.

They don't and since they almost never leave their swamps there is little need to take them into account.

[Jon of the Hudson]

I agree with you that, at least in part, Roose's decision to kill Robb is meant to send a signal to Tywin that he's Tywin's man. But in service of what? In service of his very risky ambition to become Warden of the North (and perhaps Lord Paramount of the North, as well), a position which will inevitably be highly tenuous. Why isn't he satisfied to just go home to the Dreadfort, murder Ramsay, and produce pale babies with Fat Walda? Why does he want this intense and thankless position? We've been told he's a cautious man, but this is a rash step. The safe, cautious path would be to delay his arrival at the Twins until after the Red Wedding, bend the knee to Tywin, and go home, even if Tywin doesn't make him Warden. Plus, what other options does Tywin have? It's obvious that, even with Roose committing to Tywin in such an irrevocable way, Tywin has made no commitment whatever to Roose, and, indeed, by his marriage of Tyrion to Sansa has indicated that he views Roose as only a temporary tool at best (and Roose knows about that marriage at the time of the Red Wedding). It just seems to me that when you're looking at the risk to reward ratio, the smartest thing to do is to avoid betraying Robb, and bend the knee to the Iron Throne after he's dead.

That's why I think that part of what Roose was doing is steadying the Freys, forcing them to commit fully to him.

I buy that Roose had more 'backbone' than his Frey partners -- finishing the deed that they began. He's a no-nonsense kind of guy. Though I think once the Freys had feathered Robb with arrows they would have had to finish him off in any event rather than keep him prisoner.

As for Roose's caution, there's caution and then there's caution. Holding back his soldiers while other northmen die fighting the Lannisters is one thing. But he also has ambition (clearly, or else he wouldn't have jockeyed for the WotN gig), and likely has inherited Bolton malice towards the Starks in any event (I'm thinking of the wolf-hunting at Harrenhal, which GRRM played up as a creepy personal pleasure; also hanging over the story like a gun on a mantlepiece are the stories of flayed Stark skins in the Dreadfort).

The events post-Blackwater are a unique opportunity for the ambitious lord: Robb was extremely vulnerable, his armies reduced, his foes still strong, his territory overrun, and one of his chief vassals (Walder Frey) mutinous. I think caution would dictate that Roose Bolton at least consider the chance to take down the Starks at that moment and gain power for his house. If he's stuck as one of a number of northern houses after Robb's fall -- or worse, as Robb's right hand man in a long and uncertain war against the Ironborn, Lannisters, Tyrells, etc. -- then he may lose even more. Might as well act from strength when he can.

As has been said a few times, each of the LPs has a rival lord seeking to take them down. This is what Boltons do, cautious or no.

[jlk7e]

As has been said a few times, each of the LPs has a rival lord seeking to take them down. This is what Boltons do, cautious or no.

I think it's wrong to view the situation as a permanent one, or all of them as the same. The Stark/Bolton rivalry goes back thousands of years, but has few recent implications that we know about. Bolton served Ned loyally during Robert's Rebellion.

On the other side, the Freys have only recently risen to a position of prominence from which they can challenge the Tullys.

And such families don't clearly exist in every kingdom - we know of no real rival house in the Stormlands, and in the Vale the most powerful house, the Royces, shows no sign of enmity to the Arryns.