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What had become of Tywin if Stannis had seized King's Landing?


Gared

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Either way, the more lords on his side, the fewer lords to oppose him.

And catches come no better than a woman who brings wit, beauty, immense wealth, and 80k soldiers.

And he'd likely do what he did with Brynden, for one of Maces bannermen.

Create some nominal title, grant him control of a portion of the reach bannermen, and then make for home.

Once the ironmen have been rooted out, and perhaps pyke torn down, he can go about rewarding second sons with marriages.

Wedding some northern lordlings, to river and reach daughters, and building them keeps to strengthen boundaries against the west and Crown/stormlands.

I don't disagree with most of this post although it doesn't address my point. I still think, in relation to the first point, more allies does mean more enemies. Enemies that Robb could avoid having in the short run while he is dealing with his still undefeated main adversary Tywin. I don't think Robb would think as far ahead as the restructuring of the realm around a kingdom of the North-Rivers and Reach.

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Ok lets say you are right stannis has 20,000 knights he takes them against mace tyrells 80,000 and robb starks 20,000 witch includes heavy cavalry, and the riverlords who have knights, he would still lose. hence the stark tyrell alliance is beneficial to both parties. Even if their is a large difference in quality the numbers more then make up for it.

Well I don't agree with the 80, 000 figure. I think it is more like 65,000 but I guess that is a small point.

The trouble is these army sizes would never work in real medieval warfare anyway, you can't keep that number of men together in one place for long enough to do anything effective, 35,000 is the limit even with an effective commissariat.

I think singular circumstances caused Stannis to lose Blackwater, he was taken by surprise.

Robb is also miles away from Mace and Tywin is in the way so they couldn't concentrate their forces.

In the unlikely event Robb and Mace concentrate their armies and Mace's bannermen think joining the northern kingdom is a good idea (which I don't think they would), battles have been won against longer odds and such a huge army sounds very unwieldy.

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The idea that the bigger battalions always triumph in war is a very modern idea. And if Mace's men are just rabble I'm not convinced they would be very effective if Stannis picked his ground carefully. As I said, Mace's infantry are fighting their own feudal lords and if the battle doesn't go well from the start, like it did at Blackwater, things could get a bit messy for Mace.

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The men stannis has are mostly stormlords, the only reachmen he has are the florents. The argument that maces men would be fighting thier lords is incorrect, stannis takes kings landing mace marches to the westerlands to help kill tywin, tywin either dies or surenders. Then they are free to deal with stannis if he stays in kings landing he will starve. If he leaves to give battle most of his men will go over to the starks and tyrells just like they did in clash at the first sign of a real fight the loyalty of the men he gets from renly is very shaky. You saying that robb marrying marg is not beneficial to both parties is absurd. Robb gets a huge boost in manpower, mace gets revenge on stannis, becomes a king, his daughter becomes a queen, and the risk is non becaus stannis already hates him. Staniss being in power is bad for mace and robb.

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The men stannis has are mostly stormlords, the only reachmen he has are the florents. The argument that maces men would be fighting thier lords is incorrect, stannis takes kings landing mace marches to the westerlands to help kill tywin, tywin either dies or surenders. Then they are free to deal with stannis if he stays in kings landing he will starve. If he leaves to give battle most of his men will go over to the starks and tyrells just like they did in clash at the first sign of a real fight the loyalty of the men he gets from renly is very shaky. You saying that robb marrying marg is not beneficial to both parties is absurd. Robb gets a huge boost in manpower, mace gets revenge on stannis, becomes a king, his daughter becomes a queen, and the risk is non becaus stannis already hates him. Staniss being in power is bad for mace and robb.

I've explained why I think Mace's foot would be fighting many of their own lords. If you don't agree, cool but I'm basing my argument around it so...

Even if I'm wrong though (and I don't think I am), there's still the foot from the Stormlands at Bitterbridge presumably.

If Mace goes west Stannis won't starve because the Tyrells will lack the men to block the Rose Road and Stannis can attack Mace's divided army.

I'm not sure Robb thinks about Stannis being in power too much, or its affect on him. I'm not convinced the problems of maintaining northern independence have really dawned on him.

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At this point, the Iron-men haven't really caused too much trouble yet, and the only person who's really stood up to Rob is the Frey's, so I don't really agree with the idea that Rob is in trouble quite yet. Bolton will be loyal as can be if he thinks the Starks will win, so hes not really a problem yet either. I agree that Stannis has a fairly strong military force behind him, but I dont think we quite know enough about the military structure in Westros to say with certainty that mounted forces were necessarily the be-all-end-all of military conquest. For that matter, provided the Starks and Tyrells could join forces, the Northmen cavalry sounded quite competent in the campaign in the Craig.

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One of robbs lords says after the blackwater that stannis is as much thiere enemy as the lannisters. and how would maces army be divided? If stannis succeeds in taking kings landing he lacks the strength to meet mace on his own, if mace is joined by robb is chances get even lower. Also stannis does not inspire such loyalty in his men if they leave him in clash against the tyrell lannister alliance why wouldnt they leave him when faced by the stark tyrell alliance.

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Well one of Robb's lords might say that. What's the point. I need to know what Robb and Cat thought and they don't seem to do much thinking about this issue.

If Mace marches west he has to take a portion of the army out of the Reach. Unless he takes all his men the army will be divided.

We don't know exactly how loyal Stannis' banners are but as I was saying the Battle of Blackwater does feature a surprise assault on an army in a very vulnerable position (in the middle of crossing a river) aided by Renly's ghost. If circumstances had been different Stannis's men might not have deserted so fast. This thing happened quite frequently in the Wars of the Roses, whole battles tipped on sudden rumours of treachery but it didn't mean the affected force was remarkably disloyal. Everyone's loyalties were in a bit of a mess.

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Ok, my point is that if Robb marries marg both tyrell and stark become a good deal more powerful, they both have something to gain and nothing to lose, stannis hates mace so stannis as king is bad for mace, Robb wants to be king in the north stannis wants the whole realm therfore they are enemies Stannis threatens robb to cats face at the meeting at storms end and she gets upset. Stannis as king is bad for both groups an alliance between them is mutualy beneficial. this whole conversation started when someone wondered if robb and marg would make a good match and if this would cause the starks and tyrells to "win" and the truth is if robb married marg and stannis took kings landing robb would still be alive and be king in the north, stannis would probably be dead or king of the stormlands.

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If the reach joined with the riverlands and the north, they'd first be able to march on Casterly rock and either take it, or break the spirit of Tywin.

Knowing Tywin, he'd likely die in battle, alongside Kevan.....thats alright, because in the Stark camp there remains one of Kevans sons, iirc.

New lord of Casterly Rock, arise!

With that dagger removed from their back, they could consolidate the combined realm via marriages, and new keeps....paid for with the vast coffers of Casterly Rock.

Give a few years of peace and rest, and come spring, Stannis is now even older, the city likely even more resentful of his rule, and Shireen still single.

Lay seige to KL, and when the people defect and open the gates, Stannis is lost.

Maybe flees, probably doesn't and he dies.

They take Storms End, and legitimize Edric, as new Baratheon lord.

The realm at large is theirs, and whatever children Robb/Marg had, the second son could always be seated on the iron throne.

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Here is what I think (Considering the Starks and Tyrells do not have an alliance, because I don't really think that would happen anyway unless Robb bent the knee.):

Tywin goes north to fight Robb and receives a letter about how he lost King's Landing before actually meting the Stark host on the battlefield. So, being the old fox he is, he realizes that he no longer has any son on the throne, flees to Casterly Rock (with his own trops basically undamaged, since he didn't fought anyone) and bends the knee to Stannis under the condition that he will keep his position and lands (probably Tywin would be obligated to forgive the crown most or all its debts in the bargain). Myrcella still in Dorne and Tonmen, although out of the city, is not SO far away and is soon dlivered to Stannis as a ward.

Now, Stannis has important hostages (Sansa and Tonmen) and seats the Iron Throne. The Tyrells would bend the knee (probably in exchange for Willas or Loras marring Shireen), since they no longer have any reason not to. Finally, Robb, as bad at diplomacy as he is and with the enemity of the Freys and his own Bannermen, fights bravely but is ultimatelly killed anyway, either by sword (Baratheon + Lannister + Tyrell) or by treachery (Frey + Bolton + Lannister).

Jaime Lannister is dissmissed from his white cloack duties because he a- no longer have a hand; b- Stannis don't want Tywin's son (and kingslayer to bot) so close to him and can finally be heir to Casterly Rock.

Cersei, Joffrey and Tyrion are, of course, dead as well as most of the former Kingsguard. New members are apointed, including most of Davos's sons and the most loyal knights of Stannis.

Sansa is forced to marry one of Davos's sons so he can claim the north (Davos is now Hand of the King). They live happily as lords of winterfell and have many sons of their own.

Tywin Lannister keeps plotting a way to gain position with little success, since he is now enemy to the King who watches closely upon him, much like happened to the Greyjoys after their rebellion.

The ironborn keep rebelling for some time until Stannis sends Davos or Saladhor or whomever to put an end to it and they are put back in line again.

Dorne remains the way it is, although with a political misstep duo to Myrcella no longer being so close to the king.

Rh'llor now replaces the Faith as the official religion of Westeros and Melisandre has an stupid amount of power, something very close to a medieval pope would have. Whomever still workships the Seven or the Old Gods do it in silence, cause Stannis is much more strict on this matters than Robert was.

Of course, we still have Daenerys and the Great Other lurking on the horizon and menacing Stanis's new kingdom...

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  • 3 months later...

^Stannis would never let any of Jaime and Cersei's children live. They are abominations in his mind, and their parents are guilty of treason. This is Stannis we are talking about - you think he would let the Kinglsayer get away with murdering Aerys and cuckolding Robert? And what indication do we have that Stannis is interested in making a new "official religion" of Westeros?

And Tywin Lannister is not some unfeeling, calculating robot who will choose the "pragmatic" road no matter what. I very highly doubt he would bend the knee to the man who executed his favorite children and grandchildren. He is far too prideful. I think, instead, he would seek an alliance with House Stark and/or fight on in Tommen's name.

Also, Sunspear declared for Joffrey during ACOK. Now, we readers know that Doran is actually playing his own long game, but during the War of Five Kings Dorne was nominally the Lannisters' ally.

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Stannis's letter re: incest and his treatment of Davos demonstrates that he's a very precise man who punishes clear crimes, not potential or implied crimes.

I'm not sure that Stannis would demand Tywin's head, since, in this scenario, Tywin didn't fight Stannis and he didn't commit the treason or support incest. In fact, if Tywin went to fight Robb (who did commit treason by declaring himself king) that would work to Tywin's advantage. Therefore, he could possibly bend the knee and save his own life and lands. He would have to remarry quickly and produce heirs. Ironically, given his reduction in status, it might be one of the Frey girls. Tywin would be very angry, but would put his duty to the Lannister name first.

Jaime would be executed for treason--I don't think that Stannis would allow him to go to the NW. And the fact that he's lost his hand would not inspire mercy in Stannis.

Myrcella the abomination would probably be killed--but there's a chance that Doran might convince stannis to let him keep her as a hostage. Doran seems genuinely fond of children and her particularly, and I can't see him willingly sending her to her death. Her marriage prospects are done, however, and she becomes a septa.

I can't see Robb breaking his betrothal to marry Margaery. He has too much of his father's honor. The only reason that he broke it to marry Jeyne was that he slept with her and did not want to dishonor her. If something similar happened with Margaery, that's a different story. Also, I doubt Catelyn would even suggest it--she'd know that Ned would want his son to stay with his commitment to the Freys.

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