Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[thunder_chicken]

I have another (crazy) possibility... The letter Jon receives is written by Mellisandre! She's finally ready to accept that Stannis is not AAR, and that Jon is. What better way to show off the power of her future fortelling than by engineering something that she can then "predict" to Jon. No doubt she sees the immense odds that Stannis faces, and may be ready to write him off (she apparently hasn't been able to project any help from afar to his cause). She would certainly know all the details in the letter. She also senses the danger to Jon at Castle Black. She can probably sense that Arya in danger may be the only thing to get him to break his oath, head South and take over Stannis' position as leader of the righteous. No matter how good a LC Jon is, AA can't be tied to the Wall.

Perhaps she had Mance or one of the 6 spearwives send the raven, or else had someone at Castle Black slip it into the ravenry.

In terms of the Battle for Winterfell, this might suggest Stannis does actually lose the battle (maybe survives), but in some way that also unseats Roose.

[Faint]

Melisandre is always a possibility because she has access to her fire and, therefore, might know everything. Still, her being the letter writer is quite the radical theory.

[Lord Ben]

Melisandre is always a possibility because she has access to her fire and, therefore, might know everything. Still, her being the letter writer is quite the radical theory.

She would also need access to Ravens or a good way to fake it. That is one of the biggest reasons I suspect Bran. He's one of the few with the knowledge and also the ability to plant a message on a Raven and have it look like it came from somewhere.

[Faint]

She would also need access to Ravens or a good way to fake it. That is one of the biggest reasons I suspect Bran. He's one of the few with the knowledge and also the ability to plant a message on a Raven and have it look like it came from somewhere.

I don't think that's too difficult actually, getting a raven or, better yet, simply bribing one of the men to tell Jon Snow that this message came via raven. Still, I'm firmly in the Ramsay Bolton sent it camp. It simply makes more sense, in my view.

[bemused]

Shadow Fox..Blasphemy ! Roose Bolton escaping through the Stark crypts !?! :D...no,no,no...But he might R_U_N_N_O_F_T with his own men out a gate ( "Can't stop what's comin'.") , hightailing it for the Dreadfort , as other Northerners break in through the crypts and Barbrey and the rest turn against him. ( I would personally love it if that was in his nightshirt in a snowstorm as a nod to English history.. ;) ..we have the snowstorm..)

Lord Varys has just said some of what I wanted to say..but maybe with a different end..I don't think Roose would lead a force against Stannis.. Stannis' men are starving , his are not, so far , and he's just sacrificed the Frey and Manderly forces to ease tensions , off each other if they're determined to do it , but hopefully distress Stannis even further , if they can't finish him off. That should have eased tensions , and lessened the strain on their supplies...But whoops ! Just then, Theon and Jeyne escape.

Even with that wrinkle , I think Theon has it right. It will be Ramsay coming , and Roose will still keep about half his men..it's just that I don't think any of the other Northerners are loyal to Roose , so he doesn't have as many as he may think.

For a while, now, I've been subscribing to the theory of an unseen Northern force..reinforcements at need , perhaps ... and perhaps there always was a different "Trojan Horse" strategy in play.

The Northerners inside WF have no way of knowing that Stannis would be able to pre-empt the Karstark plan..or to foresee that Roose would send out the Freys and White Harbour forces. (even if they were trying to provoke it )

But Barbrey Dustin , in her theatrical trip to the crypts with Theon, not only observed the missing swords ( checking out Wex's story ?) , showed interest in the lower levels , but her men spent a half hour unblocking the door to the crypts to accomodate her trip. (Nice work, Barbrey ) If there is a secret passage, it couldn't have been used without this very convenient digging out.

I think it's Theon who recalls being taught to defend a stairwell by Rodrik Cassel , pointing out that one well trained man at the top can hold off many fighting their way up ( and the stairway in the crypts is described as narrow ). I can see a plan for a force of men entering that way to overturn the Boltons, but some "inside " men would have to defend the open doorway to prevent the Boltons defending the stairway in the very way Theon remembers. I think those "inside" men are there..certainly Barbreys " sworn swords" who cleared the door...and probably many more.

There were certainly enough men at White Harbour ( the survivors from Robb's war would be very motivated ) to form a large enough party to move swiftly and give the Northerners inside WF better odds against the Boltons even if Roose had sent no-one out.

What if the Hooded man is part of this plan , moving about at night ,using " Bran's" secret passage inside the inner wall , to check from the battlements for some signal that his men were in place ? The plan would require that he ( or someone) be a person who knew of the secret passage in the crypts . I believe these escape routes were commonly found in Medieval castles , but would have been very secret indeed , in case of just such scenarios as above , or an enemy force waiting for the escapees at the exit.

Therefore , I believe even more strongly than ever that the HM is most likely Benjen. ..I can lay out my reasons if you like , but not now.. I have to walk my dogs ( Dire Shih Tzus) ;)

[Jolene Brown]

Argh. I hate that House of the Undying quote. It does convince me that Dany and Stannis must meet, and I'm ready for him to go sooner than that. How aggravating. He's going to make it all the way to Book Seven after all. On the bright side, I feel like it confirms that Aegon is fake and that the whole, "oh, mummer's dragon just means Varys the mummer's dragon" excuse is not true. George has as much as stated outright that Stannis is not Azor Ahai reborn and that the sword is not lightbringer with Aemon's highlighting of the section in the ancient text stating that Lightbringer should be hot (while Stannis's sword gives no heat) for Jon. That House of the Undying quote clearly connects the blue-eyed king who casts no shadow to the mummer's dragon as "lies," as emphasized by our knowledge that Stannis is a fake Azor Ahai.

[Free Northman]

The blue eyed Stannis Dany sees in the vision could be an undead Stannis, similar to Beric Dondarrion and Catelyn Stark. If anyone is the type of person to rise from the dead to continue fighting for his fanatic cause, it would be Stannis.

And with Mellisandre linked to him, would it really be surprising if he had the means to be ressurected? Mellisandre is far more powerful than the fat Thoros. Hence, Stannis is a definite candidate for undeadness should he die in the Battle of Ice.

[bemused]

Further to my post above, I think this plan to retake WF via the crypts had to have been forming before Stannis came into the picture , but Stannis' entree to the scene would have made it more urgent , if anything. The more I think about it , the more right it seems to me that even the mountain clans may not be there in support of Stannis' campaign , or even just making common cause with him. The North is letting Stannis unknowingly support their plan. ( That doesn't necessarily mean that Manderly would renege on his agreement with Davos ) ... But none of them would wish Stannis to have the disposition of WF under his control , any more than they want the Boltons there. I'm sure they'd give him guest-right ( just don't touch the godswood ), but like some other posters , I feel when he gets there , he'll find The North in command , by their own efforts.

[Free Northman]

Further to my post above, I think this plan to retake WF via the crypts had to have been forming before Stannis came into the picture , but Stannis' entree to the scene would have made it more urgent , if anything. The more I think about it , the more right it seems to me that even the mountain clans may not be there in support of Stannis' campaign , or even just making common cause with him. The North is letting Stannis unknowingly support their plan. ( That doesn't necessarily mean that Manderly would renege on his agreement with Davos ) ... But none of them would wish Stannis to have the disposition of WF under his control , any more than they want the Boltons there. I'm sure they'd give him guest-right ( just don't touch the godswood ), but like some other posters , I feel when he gets there , he'll find The North in command , by their own efforts.

Agreed. Stannis will still be around once Dany arrives, but maybe as an undead wight, or as the commander of some Night Legion or whatever.

He simply hasn't been set up as the hero of the series. As I said many times before, he is mid series filler, and just another challenge for the true heroes - Jon and Dany - to overcome.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Rockroi,

why do you think Roose Bolton would 1. lead the attack against Stannis personally, and 2. leave Ramsay in charge of the garrison of Winterfell?

All we know about Roose Bolton suggests the opposite thing. Roose is the most cautious man in the Seven Kingdoms. Yes, you are right, Stannis and the situation forced Roose to send his troops out to find and destroy him, at a place of his choosing. But why do you think he would accompany his troops?

In my mind the whole purpose of 'Ramsay Bolton' is to serve as Roose's enforcer. He is the guy Roose uses to do his dirty work, and that includes, to an extent, the leading of men into battle. If a quarter or more of the Dreadfort men would be sent against Stannis, Roose would send them out under the command of Ramsay and Steelshanks Walton. He would not go himself. He would rather rid the castle of most/all his potential enemies. If in the end only loyal Bolton men remained at Winterfell, Roose could fortify and hope to hold the castle successfully against Stannis, even if all his northern bannermen would abandon him (that is, as long as Stannis does not find a way to sneak in/open the gates).

But even if Roose for some reason would be leading his troops personally against Stannis, he would not die at the lake. He would remain in the rear, and retreat to Winterfell in time.

As I've already said, in my opinion it's much more likely that the Pink Letter has been written before the battle. And I think the Boltons are fucked even more. Not only is Stannis much more in control of the coming battle, he is also about to get 'divine help'. Bran and Bloodraven will interfere, I think, sending ravens and possibly even the trees against the Freys.

Fair points here. It's prolly prudent to question whether the Boltons actually posses Lightbringer, and it's entirely possible the pink letter was written before the battle, but what stymies me in that scenario is that without some type of Bolton interaction with or intelligence from Stannis's forces, how do the Boltons know Theon/Arya are bound for the Wall? At what point do they confirm the two made it to the Umbers, then Stannis, as opposed to just assuming that's what happened? After all, Roose is on record saying he didn't think Theon had it in him to betray Ramsay, they have to be shocked that Theon facilitated Arya's escape. Wouldn't it be worth it to them to attempt to find out if Theon had more in him than they credited and didn't run to Dagmer at Torrhen's Square or make for the Stony Shore?

Granted, once the spearwives started singing, "They went to the Wall" was the most obvious conclusion for the Boltons to make. Still, I'm operating under the assumption that the pink letter was intended to subdue and silence Jon about "Arya's" true I.D. thru threats and blackmail. And that it was their last, desperate card to play after trying and failing to recover Theon/Jeyne. It just seems unlikely that the Boltons would dash off a letter based solely on Mance/spearwives intel without first confirming that Theon/Jeyne made it to Stannis. How can they confirm that without some fighting and intel gathering having happened?

[VaramyrSixchins]

Further to my post above, I think this plan to retake WF via the crypts had to have been forming before Stannis came into the picture , but Stannis' entree to the scene would have made it more urgent , if anything. The more I think about it , the more right it seems to me that even the mountain clans may not be there in support of Stannis' campaign , or even just making common cause with him. The North is letting Stannis unknowingly support their plan. ( That doesn't necessarily mean that Manderly would renege on his agreement with Davos ) ... But none of them would wish Stannis to have the disposition of WF under his control , any more than they want the Boltons there. I'm sure they'd give him guest-right ( just don't touch the godswood ), but like some other posters , I feel when he gets there , he'll find The North in command , by their own efforts.

But the Starks (besides Bran) don't even seem to know about the ways in and out of the crypts, much less the Northmen. I agree there's some Northern conspiring and whispering and planning, but this seems a little far fetched.

[Free Northman]

But the Starks (besides Bran) don't even seem to know about the ways in and out of the crypts, much less the Northmen. I agree there's some Northern conspiring and whispering and planning, but this seems a little far fetched.

Today's Starks don't. But Bran does, since he knows everything that happened in Winterfell for the last 8,000 years.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Today's Starks don't. But Bran does, since he knows everything that happened in Winterfell for the last 8,000 years.

Sure, but I'm arguing against the likelihood of the Northmen planning all along to enter WF via the crypts. If the knowledge is lost to time, how would Northmen have info about the crypts that today's Starks don't possess? If you're suggesting Bran has told them via heart tree, that means he would have to contact a Northman at a point in time past (when depends on how long one thinks the Northmen have been planning to enter via crypts) and give detailed directions when it hasn't really been shown that's possible. When he speaks via tree to Ned and Theon, it's a ghostly whisper, fragmented murmurings, etc. I mean, anything's possible, but it's hard to imagine.

[Lord Varys]

As to the House of the Undying thing:

The setting up of Stannis, Dany, and Aegon as the three ultimate pretenders to Iron Throne is there, yes, but the prophecy actually refers to the Azor Ahai prophecy. 'Slayer of Lies' means that the real Azor Ahai is going to reveal the fake ones. And both Stannis and Aegon are fake Azor Ahais. If Aegon learns about the threat of the Others, someone will point out that Rhaegar Targaryen thought his son was the prophesied prince, and, I guess, Aegon is going to try to save the Realm just as Stannis does.

But the House of the Undying never foretold who would end up on the Iron Throne. Both Stannis and Aegon could still sit on the Iron Throne in the end. Being exposed as false Azor Ahai is not going to change that.

As to Stannis being save until the very end:

GRRM very carefully tried to get us to doubt this fact during ADwD. Many characters often mention that Stannis might not come back to the Wall, or be already dead. And despite the fact that his troops are not nearly in that bad a shape, the two Asha chapters strongly try to convince us that hope is virtually lost, and everything is going to hell. He accomplishes this by referring mostly to suffering of the southron knights (who are but a minority among Stannis's host), whereas the fact that the Northerners practically thrives is not mentioned nearly as often.

Without the gift chapter, Stannis's death is way more sure than without it. It was a deliberate choice to not include the Battle of Ice in ADwD, and GRRM at least succeeded in playing with our expectations. I was gutted when I read the Pink Letter. I really like Stannis, and I never thought he would die this soon in the series. Not with the House of the Undying in mind.

As to Lady Dustin:

I'm not sure if she is still a Stark loyalist at heart. She got me really convinced that she is done with those people. If she and her 'Stark hatred' are as similar to Theon as she thinks, then there might actually still be another side to her, since Theon's whole arc in ADwD led him back to his 'Stark roots' so to speak. I can see Barbrey abandoning Roose before he takes with him into the abyss, but I don't see a reason why she would right now conspire against House Bolton. Manderly is too cautious to talk to anyone about his plans who is not an integral part of them, and Lady Dustin is kin to Roose by marriage.

[Lord Damian]

Stark loyalists or Stannis will win this. Where the story is at this point, The Boltons have run their course. Being book 5, this is logical. How it is won though, will be fun and interesting.

[Faint]

The setting up of Stannis, Dany, and Aegon as the three ultimate pretenders to Iron Throne is there, yes, but the prophecy actually refers to the Azor Ahai prophecy.

Um, no it doesn't. The vast majority of visions and prophecies it contains has nothing to do with Azor Ahai, or the Azor Ahai legend. Seriously, where do you come up with this stuff?

[Lord Varys]

Because Stannis is a false Azor Ahai, not a false king. And even if he were, 'fate', 'destiny' or whatever thinks that Dany is special enough to be the protagonist of prophecy, would most likely not care about her being 'the true queen'. That's policy, and not the stuff of prophecy/destiny.

Dany is supposed to be 'the Slayer of Lies'. The lies she is going to slay are Aegon and Stannis in their capacities as false saviors. Both Aegon and Stannis are supposed to be the promised prince.

And it makes little sense to assume that Dany's existence alone has already slain those lies, since Dany may be chosen to become Azor Ahai, but right now she still has not accepted/chosen that destiny. First, she does not know anything about it, second, if she stays in Meereen until it's too late, nothing about her destiny is going to matter.

But we can reasonably assume that Daenerys Targaryen is going to reach Westeros eventually, else her whole arc would have pointless.

[Faint]

Because Stannis is a false Azor Ahai, not a false king. And even if he were, 'fate', 'destiny' or whatever thinks that Dany is special enough to be the protagonist of prophecy, would most likely not care about her being 'the true queen'. That's policy, and not the stuff of prophecy/destiny.

Dany is supposed to be 'the Slayer of Lies'. The lies she is going to slay are Aegon and Stannis in their capacities as false saviors. Both Aegon and Stannis are supposed to be the promised prince.

And it makes little sense to assume that Dany's existence alone has already slain those lies, since Dany may be chosen to become Azor Ahai, but right now she still has not accepted/chosen that destiny. First, she does not know anything about it, second, if she stays in Meereen until it's too late, nothing about her destiny is going to matter.

But we can reasonably assume that Daenerys Targaryen is going to reach Westeros eventually, else her whole arc would have pointless.

Have you ever considered the reasonable supposition that the lies she will slay not be the same in every case?

For example, she might, you know, slay the lie that Aegon is Aegon Targaryen VI -- something, mind you, that has nothing do with Azor Ahai.

[the_shallot_knight]

I don't know how many of you read the excerpt from Winds of Winter, but it seems to answer this whole issue fairly directly...

the Karstark ambush has been discovered and stopped, since Stannis was able to seize some ravens carrying messages. Stannis then sends the Karstarks to their death. Stannis also hints to Theon that he doesn't have natural defenses "yet," meaning the ice lake is likely to play a pivotal role. Also it is mentioned that Crowsfoot Umber set pit traps around Winterfell that killed at least Aenys Frey. Bolton's scheme seemed to hinge on the Karstark's turning on Stannis, and that plan has failed. Stannis also has enough money to hire 20,000 mercenaries from the Bravossi Banker, so it sounds like he is in it to win it.

Because of these developments, it appears Bolton is at a significant disadvantage. I'll wager that because of his scuffle with the Freys, Manderly throws his lot in with Stannis long before Davos finds Rickon.

[Lord Varys]

How could Daenerys Targaryen possibly unmask Aegon Mopatis/Blackfyre all by herself. Dany has no x-ray vision to unmask lies. If Aegon's heritage is going to become an issue, the revelation that Aegon is not Rhaegar's son might motivate Daenerys to press her claim to the Iron Throne against him, but she cannot possibly unmask Aegon all by herself.

In Samwell's last AFfC-chapter both Aegon and Stannis were discussed as possible saviors. And Aegon was introduced to us as the guy who owns the Song of Ice and Fire. This topic will come up again. And in fact it's one of the hints that Illyrio and Varys might actually have saved the real Aegon. To save the promised prince.