Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[thunder_chicken]

How could Daenerys Targaryen possibly unmask Aegon Mopatis/Blackfyre all by herself. Dany has no x-ray vision to unmask lies. If Aegon's heritage is going to become an issue, the revelation that Aegon is not Rhaegar's son might motivate Daenerys to press her claim to the Iron Throne against him, but she cannot possibly unmask Aegon all by herself.

In Samwell's last AFfC-chapter both Aegon and Stannis were discussed as possible saviors. And Aegon was introduced to us as the guy who owns the Song of Ice and Fire. This topic will come up again. And in fact it's one of the hints that Illyrio and Varys might actually have saved the real Aegon. To save the promised prince.

It seems like one of her dragons might be more than capable of doing this. Having true Targaryan blood is more than about who you are descended from, as we learned from Viserys.

[Lord Varys]

Well, if Aegon is a Blackfyre, he might actually have as much Targaryen blood as the real Aegon (who was Martell, on his mother's side). Aegon could be Blackfyre on his mother's and his father's side, if Illyrio and Serra come both from different female line branches of the great Blackfyre tree.

Dany's dragons would be rather helpless here. Especially since GRRM's hints that there will be second Dance of Dragons might actually refer to a Targaryen civil war with dragons on both sides... So Aegon might actually get one of Dany's dragons.

Anyway, the prophecy refers to 'Mother of Dragons, Slayer of Lies', not 'Mother of Dragons, Mother of dragons who slay certain lies'. Dany is the prophesied heroine, she is the Special One, the dragons prove it, but they do not make her special. It's the other way around.

[Damar]

I don't know how many of you read the excerpt from Winds of Winter, but it seems to answer this whole issue fairly directly...

the Karstark ambush has been discovered and stopped, since Stannis was able to seize some ravens carrying messages. Stannis then sends the Karstarks to their death. Stannis also hints to Theon that he doesn't have natural defenses "yet," meaning the ice lake is likely to play a pivotal role. Also it is mentioned that Crowsfoot Umber set pit traps around Winterfell that killed at least Aenys Frey. Bolton's scheme seemed to hinge on the Karstark's turning on Stannis, and that plan has failed. Stannis also has enough money to hire 20,000 mercenaries from the Bravossi Banker, so it sounds like he is in it to win it.

Because of these developments, it appears Bolton is at a significant disadvantage. I'll wager that because of his scuffle with the Freys, Manderly throws his lot in with Stannis long before Davos finds Rickon.

Regarding those mercenaries, firstly that depends on Massey safely reaching a Castle Black in total chaos between a mad giant and Jon Snow's murder which will spark off a four-way conflict of Queen's Men, Night Watch Traditionalists, Jon Snow Loyalists and the Wildlings, than he has to reach Eastwatch where there are no ships, and when solving that problem he has to cross a very fickle-seeming sea to reach Braavos, where Justin than has to find 20,000 good sellswords while a lot of them are in the far east, and than find enough ships to carry them all to Westeros and hope most of them make the voyage. This isn't going to be a matter of days, this will be a matter of months, if Massey is lucky. So it's effect on the coming battle is virtually zero, save for Stannis losing his most trusted knight.

[Faint]

This isn't going to be a matter of days, this will be a matter of months, if Massey is lucky. So it's effect on the coming battle is virtually zero, save for Stannis losing his most trusted knight.

Exactly. Keep in mind, also, that Arya's timeline is way out in front of everybody else, and she's heard nothing of Massey yet, or someone in the city trying to buy a mercenary force.

Then there is the question of what Massey will do when he reaches Castle Black and what the situation there will be. Readers tend to forget that, over the course of Asha's storyline, Massey was already expressing misgivings about Stannis' campaign in the North. If all hell has broken loose at the Wall, along with news that Stannis has been slain and defeated, who knows what Massey will do under the circumstances. There are so many different aspects to consider.

[Lord Varys]

If Mel and Selyse don't die in the aftermath of Jon's death, I'm sure they'll send Shireen's representatives with him to Braavos, to ensure that he does not run away with the money. I can't imagine they'll allow Massey to go to Braavos all by himself with 'Arya Stark'. If Jeyne is going to accompany him, Alysane Mormont, and possibly even Selyse and Ser Axell will accompany them. If Jon has not been resurrected yet when Massey arrives at Castle Black, Jeyne's identity will not be revealed, so neither Mel nor Selyse will allow him to take the girl with him.

For Shireen's sake I hope they take her as well. If Stannis is declared dead, Queen Shireen would be his legal heir, and Selyse and Shireen would be not only much safer at Braavos, but would also make more of an impression if the royal family itself would hire the soldiers.

Lastly, Shireen's greyscale will eventually resurface at Castle Black. It's a very cold and damp place. Braavos may be damp, but it would warmer down there, even in winter.

[bemused]

Back to knowledge of the secret passage.

I always thought Lady Barbrey protested too much about her Stark hatred. Why would she open up to Theon that way , and then tell him to say nothing ? She didn't need to say anything to Theon. But she assumes he's likely to be questioned.. and she knows if Ramsay or Roose should ask him, he'd sing like a canary. This is suggested in the way she tells Theon to tell "his " bastard that if he wants to keep the Northern houses loyal ,he should teach his wife to laugh,not cry... and in the way, when Theon tells her he knows he must hold his tongue about their conversation , or lose it, she says , " Roose has trained you well. "..not Ramsay .

To my mind , she's reinforcing her cover with the Boltons.. In opposition to her Stark story , we know she was fond of Domeric, and believes Ramsay killed him . We don't know the circumstances of her sister's death, or if she was happy or unhappy in her marriage to Roose. Her name is not so much as mentioned .. We don't know if Barbrey feels Roose bears any blame for her sister's death.. directly , or indirectly , by neglect. ( But by the fact that the circumstances are never mentioned , either by Roose or Barbrey , I feel there may be room for suspcion and a reveal may be coming )

Anyway you look at it though , it's by her actions that the way to the crypts has been cleared.

Here's part of what I've posted elsewhere :

I think ,in our world , it was very common for castles to have a secret escape route ( at least for the rulers ) . But secret means secret ... it would be worthless if too many knew of it... When you start to narrow it down, considering even ser Rodrik, as Robb's castellan , didn't know ( or surely he would have used it , when Theon held WF ) , it's unlikely anyone outside the Stark family would know. It's possible that only 1 or 2 people would know at a time, say, the Lord and Lady and the secret passed on to their heir , as necessary.

There are a few possible scenarios :

1. Ned knew , and passed the secret on to Benjen when Ned went to fight in RR, and Benjen held WF...and possibly to Robb later , though not necessarily , since he left Cat in charge when he went to KL.

2. As Ned's wife, Catelyn almost certainly would have known, if he did .

3. Robb and Jon may not have known . When Cat left WF, she had no expectation of not returning, and may not have told Robb ( oh, Cat !)..She certainly wouldn't have told Jon...And..

4. If Robb knew , it's unlikely he would have passed the secret on to anyone outside the family prior to the RW

5. It's even possible, that with Rickard and Brandon dying at the same time, neither Ned nor Benjen knew..

( TV Luwin seems to know, but not Book Luwin )

So those who are most likely to know or are in a position to find out are :

1. Benjen and Cat , as above.. Or, if the secret has been long forgotten ...

2. Bloodraven and Bran , through observing history via the weirnet... and thus ,there exsists a second opportunity for Benjen to know , if he had contact with BR / CoTF and was sent back to fulfil the " Stark in Winterfell " requirement.

I don't think this is too far fetched , considering what we know of BR, CoTF and Colhand's activities from Sam and Bran's POVs .

In such dire times , somtimes the old rules must be broken ( as we see at the Wall ) , so while it's not impossible that BR / Bran could have sent someone a particularly convincing dream that they've since checked out ... it's far more likely that Benjen ( assuming he knows ) may have revealed himself to a select few and shared the

information , in order to get support in ousting the Boltons.

In such a case , I would agree with others that Howland Reed , who he knew from the time of the Laughing Tree would make a good initial confidante ..and possibly Barbrey Dustin , who he's also known from childhood , perhaps much more closely than we know .

[bemused]

The above may also shed light on why Aly Mormont came unbidden to Stannis' party , after his invitation had been refused by Lyanna ( whose words to Stannis probably echoed the true Mormont sentiments , as young Wylla's did in regard to the Manderlys' ) Aly may have come in specifically to shore up the Mountain clans , and /or let them know of the plan the leaders of the major Northern houses had been hatching.

[Faint]

Maege Mormont, Galbart Glover and Howland Reed are the elements to this whole equation that are largely ignored. I wonder whether Alysane Mormont is already working under her mother's directions via raven sent from Greywater Watch.

[thunder_chicken]

Oh Gawd, it's zombie Catelyn and Jaime in the crypt, isn't it!?

[bemused]

Ravens can't come and go from GW , maybe because it moves , but there are other means of communication.

[Faint]

Ravens can't come and go from GW , maybe because it moves , but there are other means of communication.

We don't know if ravens can leave Greywater Watch, we know they can't find it. That's two different things.

[bemused]

Faint ...True , come to think of it. ;)

Since Aly knows her sisters are with her mother, I can see no reason that there couldn't have been communication between them , whether by raven or messenger.

I've gone from thinking that maybe one or two..maybe three ..of the Northern Houses may have been able to talk , form plans, etc. , to feeling that the whole Northern leadership ( minus the Karstarks ) has been in some kind of contact , and is in cahoots .

As Stannis points out in the case of the Karstarks, it's unlikely that the details are known to the common man-at-arms, but their loyalties would not be in question.

[Jolene Brown]

Exactly. Keep in mind, also, that Arya's timeline is way out in front of everybody else, and she's heard nothing of Massey yet, or someone in the city trying to buy a mercenary force.

Then there is the question of what Massey will do when he reaches Castle Black and what the situation there will be. Readers tend to forget that, over the course of Asha's storyline, Massey was already expressing misgivings about Stannis' campaign in the North. If all hell has broken loose at the Wall, along with news that Stannis has been slain and defeated, who knows what Massey will do under the circumstances. There are so many different aspects to consider.

Stannis Baratheon will rue the day he sent Justin Massey on this mission, I am almost (hard to be completely with this series!) sure. He framed it basically as a punishment for being the kind of guy he doesn't like - oh, you're glib and you have a pleasing manner, qualities I hate, so I'm going to send you off on a long, annoying journey to Braavos, instead of letting you fight with me in battle, as you would prefer. I also will not give you any assurance that completing this second-tier mission will result in your getting Asha or lands, ensuring that it is easy for someone else to offer you a better deal. I will barely even treat you with respect - actually, I won't really treat you with respect, thus ensuring that someone else can also win you over by valuing you as a human being, unlike me. Oh, and by the way, I have 500 swords as good as you, in case you were wondering.

All this to someone who is already a bit soft in his support of what Stannis is doing. Genius. That should go really well.

[MikeDC]

If I were Roose, I send out Ramsay to fight Stannis and stay at Winterfell.

That ship has sailed. Roose cannot send ¼ of the WF troops out to find Stannis because, well, they may actually find Stannis- and get annihilated. That plan would also keep Roose at WF surrounded by Freys and MAnderly’s where BOTH would STILL be at each other’s throats It does not solve the problem. No half measure solves those problems. He cannot send out Ramsey with troops to fight Stannis because Ramsey would get butchered along with his men; he cannot send out other men because he does not trust them. No, Roose HAS to take all or he risks loosing it all. He must lead and leave Ramsey to hold the rear.

But Roose wouldn't be surrounded by Freys and Manderlys. He sends them first out to fight Stannis and I think it's evident he hopes they get killed. If he sends Ramsay out behind them, Ramsay gets killed too. That leaves Roose with maybe only 25% of his force left, but Stannis has actually solved his internal loyalty problems and it's now very possible he can withstand a lengthy siege in which he does not have to deal with the Frey vs. Manderly and Ramsay vs. everyone dissension. Incidentally, he still keeps 100% of the food to feed his 75% smaller force. At various points it's been stated that Winterfell can be held against many men with very few men. It seems to me that Roose is perfectly willing to loose 3/4 of his men if the remaining 1/4 are enough to keep Winterfell.

Put simply, if Roose can put Frey, Manderly and Ramsay in a position to be killed off, it lets Roose get back to his default position of sitting by his fire while Stannis starves in the winter.

[Frey Pie]

If/when Manderly defects to Stannis' side, then everyone seems to be forgetting the ace up his sleeve. Hes been gathering men for a long time now. I would think many of them Glover, Tallhart etc men. Where are these men now? They could easily be on the way to WF

[DetroitLeprechaun]

About Ramsay's letter:

I think he's making up the part about Stannis, but to cover up that fact he pulls out the Mance Rayder card. He probably has Mance and his girls, but not Stannis.

The battle:

I'm on Stannis's side these days, so I'd like to think that he will win. I'm betting that he interrogates Karstark and gets him to be loyal to him, and that the Manderly host kills the Freys during the charge. Stannis will be victorious

[Rockroi]

But Roose wouldn't be surrounded by Freys and Manderlys. He sends them first out to fight Stannis and I think it's evident he hopes they get killed.

Mike DC:

In the post I was responding to, the theory was posed to me that Bolton would send out his Dreadfort men to do the fighting; not Freys or Manderlys, indicating that they would stay at Winterfell. This is why I responded with this theory. However, to take your theory, Roose COULD send Manderly and Freys out to find Satnnis, but then Roose has another problem, namely that those two fighting forces would be at each other's throats as soon as they left WF. THey need a stabilizing leader to keep them from killing each other. That could be Ramsey but if there is one person most capable of that its Bolton himself.

If he sends Ramsay out behind them, Ramsay gets killed too.

This actually becomes more of a problem than it can hope to alleviate; Ramsey just married "Arya Stark" and is the Prince of Winterfell. This cements Roose as the Warden of the North and gives him legitimacy. Once you kill Ramsey all that goes out the window. Roose knows he has to keep Ramsey alive until Ramsey has a son.

That leaves Roose with maybe only 25% of his force left, but Stannis has actually solved his internal loyalty problems and it's now very possible he can withstand a lengthy siege in which he does not have to deal with the Frey vs. Manderly and Ramsay vs. everyone dissension.

Yeah this has been said before- namely that Roose can "purge" his difficult cohesion problem by killing off the leaders and their armies. That's got to be the clinical definition of chopping off your nose to spite your face. The problem is that Roose still needs soldiers to fight Stannis, solidify the North, kill any rebel bodies out there, and protect him and his kingdom. If he annihilates a large chunk of his fighting force, it has a series of cascading effects, none good:

1) loss of man-power,

2) loss of security and safety;

3) perception of weakness, incompetence, and/or rampant destructiveness by those who remain, and

4) complete legitimacy for Stannis who now just won a major victory.- many more would flock to Stannis' cause in opposition to Roose.

Nothing breeds revolt as quickly as defeat. Loosing 75% of one's fighting force is something that would cause wide-spread problems for Roose. Hell, even before Roose lost a single man many were plotting against him.

Roose cannot smart-ass his way out of this problem. He has to exorcize the North of Stannis and he can only do that by defeating him, not by losing to him.

[Damar]

Stannis Baratheon will rue the day he sent Justin Massey on this mission, I am almost (hard to be completely with this series!) sure. He framed it basically as a punishment for being the kind of guy he doesn't like - oh, you're glib and you have a pleasing manner, qualities I hate, so I'm going to send you off on a long, annoying journey to Braavos, instead of letting you fight with me in battle, as you would prefer. I also will not give you any assurance that completing this second-tier mission will result in your getting Asha or lands, ensuring that it is easy for someone else to offer you a better deal. I will barely even treat you with respect - actually, I won't really treat you with respect, thus ensuring that someone else can also win you over by valuing you as a human being, unlike me. Oh, and by the way, I have 500 swords as good as you, in case you were wondering.

All this to someone who is already a bit soft in his support of what Stannis is doing. Genius. That should go really well.

Actually I read it totally the other way, as in Stannis not being really confident in a victory and believes he will die here, and there is no one he trusts more than Justin Massey to be given unlimited funds, being excused from a campaign of freezing to death and starvation so bad that the lower ranks are committing cannibalism, a upcoming battle against heavy odds and the honour of continueing the war in the name of Shireen Baratheon in the likely case he is killed. I actually see that as a rather big honour.

Of course, it depends all on Massey getting and surviving to Braavos, or find out he ran with the money.

[Lord Varys]

Well, my guess is that Roose is going to send out Ramsay with a good portion of Dreadfort men, but his host will be made up mostly of Northerners sworn to other house (i.e. Umbers, Tallharts, Borrowton men, Hornwood men, and so forth). The garrison of the castle under Roose himself will be made up almost completely (perhaps even completely by Bolton loyalists).

That way, he would be safe and sound in the castle even if all the Northerners would team up with Stannis. And he and his men could outlast a siege much longer than Stannis could besiege him.

And as I've already said, I don't believe that Roose fears Stannis as much as he should. He still thinks he has the Karstarks on his side, and he does not suspect that Manderly is going to betray him to Stannis. After all, Manderly executed Davos... So I guess he actually thinks Ramsay would be able to deal with Stannis successfully.

[The King of Worms]

Surely the Freys, Dreadfort and Barrowtown men make up more than a fourth of Bolton's force. I thought it would be at least half if not more. And in any case, starving men still don't fight well, even if they have no other option and face death or imprisonment. Moreover, Stannis' knights seem to have lost their horses and I can't see clansmen standing up to Bolton's knights in a pitched battle, they just don't have the equipment.

Also the clansmen were marching to save Ned's little girl, but might be finding out she was a fake all along soon. Potential trouble for Stannis?

Finding out about fake-Arya con would only increase Northern anger and contempt for the Boltons I would think. Can't see that hurting Stannis.

Stannis knights don't have their horses and don't seem to be holding up well in the North winter, but their is a lot to be said for desperation. They REALLY want to get inside Winterfell's walls. And Stannis's men that are left too are pretty much hard-core battle-hardened veterans at this point, and are way more loyal than the people Bolton has gathered around him.

ANd Stannis's iron fist seems to be holding it down way better than Bolton. Boltons people are fighting and killing each other right in front of him, drinking disgracefully, whoring... they have really lost respect for his command and battle discipline. If you don't have full command of your own men... it doesn't matter what other advantages you have... your done for.

Stannis is starved and outnumbered... but he still has the advantage I think.