Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[Faint]

All this to someone who is already a bit soft in his support of what Stannis is doing. Genius. That should go really well.

That's the thing, the author has already spent not a few pages establishing that Justin Massey is not one of Stannis' most fervent supporters, and that he is in fact more pragmatic and pessimistic about their chances of taking Winterfell than others, then Stannis has him undertake this very important mission and doesn't even let him take Asha with him or promise him her hand?

Then, to round it off, Massey is going to walk into Castle Black where all hell has broken loose and Stannis has been reported dead?

What do you imagine Massey will think then? Does it seem reasonable that he would take up the cause of Shireen, Selyse, and the Queen's Men? Doesn't he hate those people most of all?

But Roose wouldn't be surrounded by Freys and Manderlys. He sends them first out to fight Stannis and I think it's evident he hopes they get killed. If he sends Ramsay out behind them, Ramsay gets killed too. That leaves Roose with maybe only 25% of his force left, but Stannis has actually solved his internal loyalty problems and it's now very possible he can withstand a lengthy siege in which he does not have to deal with the Frey vs. Manderly and Ramsay vs. everyone dissension. Incidentally, he still keeps 100% of the food to feed his 75% smaller force. At various points it's been stated that Winterfell can be held against many men with very few men. It seems to me that Roose is perfectly willing to loose 3/4 of his men if the remaining 1/4 are enough to keep Winterfell.

Put simply, if Roose can put Frey, Manderly and Ramsay in a position to be killed off, it lets Roose get back to his default position of sitting by his fire while Stannis starves in the winter.

A couple of points:

First, we've already been told that Roose will never send out more than half his forces.

Second, if the Manderly men return, they are going to be let back into the castle, whether Roose wants them to or not. He simply doesn't have the kind of power yet to defy the other Northern lords and he's also not the only one with men with him.

And here's the thing, Stannis really only has to win the first confrontation to win the battle. Roose, in fact, is probably counting on that chain of events or he never would have sent out the Freys.

Once the Freys are slaughtered, that's a third or so of Bolton's men, and the only ones wholly loyal to him besides his own. And with the Karstarks turned, where does that leave Roose Bolton?

[The King of Worms]

Stark loyalists or Stannis will win this. Were the story is at this point, The Boltons have run their course. Being book 5, this is logical. How it is won though, will be fun interesting.

I agree, and I see a theme in books 3-5. Great Houses can achieve victory and success through villainy, treachery, and dishonor; and they often do. But their very lack of honor in the long run causes their own destruction. Instead of heroes defeating bad guys and bringing justice, grrm likes to show us villains that create their own demise through their own depravity.

We see this play out with the Lannisters- especially Tywin (who's shittiness to his son finally kills him) and Cersei (especially Cersei). We see it happen with the Greyjoys- especially Theon. We see this happen even with the Brave Companions. We hear stories how the mad Targaryons created their own demise. We are seeing it happen now to the Freys and the Boltons.

Devious Roose Bolton and savage Ramsay have trapped themselves into a corner. Roose has reached too far with his scheming surrounding himself treacherous allies where he is losing control of the situation, and the Boltons and Freys are generally hated and despised by all. It wouldn't surprise me if House Bolton got entirely destroyed, and a wounded House Stark is reborn through Sansa or Rickon.

So yeah, I think the biggest surprises in the next book will be GRRM killing and punishing bad guys and that "the winds of winter" is actually about revenge-from-the-North type victories.

GrrM-like ironies of Stannis being more of a King in the North than Robb ever was... maybe. Something for another thread perhaps.

[bemused]

I don't think Stannis is likely to lose his desire to be King of the whole realm ( at this point ), but regardless of that ..he may be " A " king .. in the north , but he won't become " King in the North " ( in other words , king of the north ).

I agree House Bolton may be on the path to total destruction..Even if Walda should "pop out" an heir ( I hope Jeyne won't ), if Roose and Ramsay die ,she'd have only her house to back his/her cause...and her house seems doomed to be greatly diminished , if not utterly destroyed , too.

[The King of Worms]

I don't think Stannis is likely to lose his desire to be King of the whole realm ( at this point ), but regardless of that ..he may be " A " king .. in the north , but he won't become " King in the North " ( in other words , king of the north ).

I agree House Bolton may be on the path to total destruction..Even if Walda should "pop out" an heir ( I hope Jeyne won't ), if Roose and Ramsay die ,she'd have only her house to back his/her cause...and her house seems doomed to be greatly diminished , if not utterly destroyed , too.

Oh I didn't mean Stannis would just give up his war for the iron throne. Stannis would die first. I'm just saying that stannis defended the wall, defeated the wildlings, united the mountain clans, drove out the ironborn... now he is about to retake winterfell.

I just mean that Stannis is doing everything Robb Stark couldn't as far as defending and ruling the North. He may yet defeat the Lannisters as well. Its almost like GrrM is showing us how naive Robb really was, and that it takes a brutal unyielding guy like Stannis to rule a place like the North.

Robb could only unite his banners with the dream of independence when he should have bent the knee to Stannis.

[Koekfabriek]

Oh I didn't mean Stannis would just give up his war for the iron throne. Stannis would die first. I'm just saying that stannis defended the wall, defeated the wildlings, united the mountain clans, drove out the ironborn... now he is about to retake winterfell.

I just mean that Stannis is doing everything Robb Stark couldn't as far as defending and ruling the North. He may yet defeat the Lannisters as well. Its almost like GrrM is showing us how naive Robb really was, and that it takes a brutal unyielding guy like Stannis to rule a place like the North.

Robb could only unite his banners with the dream of independence when he should have bent the knee to Stannis.

Robb would have done the same, he did not start the war to become king in the North, he started to unite his banners to get his father back. If Robb was safe in winterfell as king of just lord he would have done the same as Stannis. He would aid his half brother at the wall and fight of the ironborn. Stannis could only fight the Ironborn because robb was south with his army. The North needs a Stark, that why manderly wants Rickon, thats why the Mormont girl still only accepts a Stark as king. Thats why the mountainclans march with Stannis, because they are trying to safe ''arya stark''. The north = Stark family. When Rickon getts back with some nice guys from Skagos, al the northman will join him (not Bolton ofcourse) and not Stannis.

Stannis is a nice character i have to admit, but king or lord in the North? no, I dont see that hapening.

[Greg Miller_2367]

why does Rockroi capitalize certain words? Like dude, we know what they mean and we understand which words in your sentence hold more weight. So you should STOP doing that, it is really fuckin ANNOYING!

[Grogsmash]

I really don't see how it is possible for Bolton to win at this point. Most of his army not only wants to betray him but are just waiting for the perfect time. In addition, his secret traitors in Stannis's army have been revealed. It is also going to be common knowledge soon that the Arya is a fake, which is the only thing he has going for him as far as being leader of the North.

More damning to me is what a Bolton win would do to the plot. It would mean the end of Asha, Stannis, and Theon. I really don't see that serving much of a purpose at this point.

[nothatso]

Oh I didn't mean Stannis would just give up his war for the iron throne. Stannis would die first. I'm just saying that stannis defended the wall, defeated the wildlings, united the mountain clans, drove out the ironborn... now he is about to retake winterfell.

I just mean that Stannis is doing everything Robb Stark couldn't as far as defending and ruling the North. He may yet defeat the Lannisters as well. Its almost like GrrM is showing us how naive Robb really was, and that it takes a brutal unyielding guy like Stannis to rule a place like the North.

Robb could only unite his banners with the dream of independence when he should have bent the knee to Stannis.

I don't think I agree with this assessment. Robb and Stannis are/were in completely different situations. Had Robb been in the North putting down the Ironborn or rebellious Northern lords, it might be more comparable. I would think that Robb would be able to use the familiarity with his homeland to achieve something similar to what Stannis has in the North. Beyond that, Stannis had intended on smashing his forces against the Dreadfort before Jon counseled him against it and essentially handed him a how-to manual on how to take the North. I'm not sure he deserves so much credit beyond his willingness to take advice from other people.

[Jolene Brown]

I think Stannis will win, but I do think note should be taken that Bolton has said himself that "This Manderly plots treachery" or something like that. I'm sure he has a plan in mind/is prepared for the possibility of the Manderly troops turning. However, in general, I agree that he simply has too few loyal allies to hold on to Winterfell.

[thunder_chicken]

I think Roose's current plan is actually quite good as far as it goes- Lord Manderly is too fat to go out and fight, and is effectively a hostage for the good behavior of his troops.

[WintersKing]

I think Roose's current plan is actually quite good as far as it goes- Lord Manderly is too fat to go out and fight, and is effectively a hostage for the good behavior of his troops.

Not quite sure Manderly cares for his life as others have noted before me. He has his son back and if the Manderly family has Rickon then they control the North until he's of age. He's taking a big risk, but he believes Davos will return Rickon and put the Starks back into power.

[MikeDC]

That's the thing, the author has already spent not a few pages establishing that Justin Massey is not one of Stannis' most fervent supporters, and that he is in fact more pragmatic and pessimistic about their chances of taking Winterfell than others, then Stannis has him undertake this very important mission and doesn't even let him take Asha with him or promise him her hand?

Then, to round it off, Massey is going to walk into Castle Black where all hell has broken loose and Stannis has been reported dead?

What do you imagine Massey will think then? Does it seem reasonable that he would take up the cause of Shireen, Selyse, and the Queen's Men? Doesn't he hate those people most of all?

A couple of points:

First, we've already been told that Roose will never send out more than half his forces.

Second, if the Manderly men return, they are going to be let back into the castle, whether Roose wants them to or not. He simply doesn't have the kind of power yet to defy the other Northern lords and he's also not the only one with men with him.

And here's the thing, Stannis really only has to win the first confrontation to win the battle. Roose, in fact, is probably counting on that chain of events or he never would have sent out the Freys.

Once the Freys are slaughtered, that's a third or so of Bolton's men, and the only ones wholly loyal to him besides his own. And with the Karstarks turned, where does that leave Roose Bolton?

Up shit creek, but I don't think it leads him to suddenly charge out with his entire force and face Stannis in the field. Setting aside the percentages, I think the overriding point was that Roose wanted this to be a siege, and is probably quite willing to accept losses. I actually don't think Roose gives a shit about Winterfell himself. It might be nice for him to get Ramsay out of his immediate vicinity at the Dreadfort, but he's still Warden of the North either way. Roose seems perfectly willing to play the long game.

What I think this points to is that rather than losing out because he leads his forces out of the safety of Winterfell, he'll lose because either Manderly lets Stannis back in or (wildcard) Mance Rayder didn't get captured and instead has some sort of plan. The latter option isn't talked about much, but it seems odd to me that he'd just be sitting on his ass waiting to be captured while "Arya" is being freed.

[TheeMikeHoncho]

Not quite sure Manderly cares for his life as others have noted before me. He has his son back and if the Manderly family has Rickon then they control the North until he's of age. He's taking a big risk, but he believes Davos will return Rickon and put the Starks back into power.

Through his own words to Davos we know Manderly doesnt care about his survival. "Prisoner within his own body" is how he characterized himself in that conversation. I think the only thing Manderly cares about is revenge on the freys and returning Winterfell to the Starks, and will do anything to secure that. Even if it would lead to his demise.

[VaramyrSixchins]

(wildcard) Mance Rayder didn't get captured and instead has some sort of plan. The latter option isn't talked about much, but it seems odd to me that he'd just be sitting on his ass waiting to be captured while "Arya" is being freed.

You know, what happened with Mance is one of the biggest puzzlers about this whole sitch to me. As I've posted before I'm convinced the pink letter was written as an attempt to intimidate and blackmail Jon into silence about Arya's identity. The blackmail would be Bolton's revelation to the North that Jon pulled a fast one with Mance, thereby painting the last son of Eddard Stark as a liar, turncloak, traitor to his NW vows, in cahoots with the common enemy of the North and realm. However, if the Boltons reveal the Mance deception preemptively, BEFORE Jon proclaims Arya as fake, they run the risk of it backfiring, as those Northmen might be more sympathetic to Jon's desire to free his sister than they would outrage for his use of Mance Rayder. Therefore, putting Mance "in a cage for all the north to see" seems more likely to be a bullshit bluff designed to make Jon panic a little. The rescuer of Arya, sent by the last son of Eddard Stark, freezing in a cage with a horrifying skin cloak isn't likely to sit well with those Northmen who Lady Dustin already cites as disturbed by Ramsay's treatment of Arya.

It would help immensely if we knew what exactly the Boltons knew regarding Mance and Jon. We know the "Your false king lied and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to WF,,," bit is inaccurate on a couple of counts. A) presumably Stannis knows nothing about the glamour, and B) Jon came aboard that train at the last minute. Interesting that Mel or the glamour aren't alluded to at all. There are a few possibilities as to why this inaccurate info was put in the letter. 1) Boltons know the whole story, but spin the info to Jon in a way that points to Jon being more personally responsible for the deception, thus making the blackmail more effective. 2) Boltons don't know about the glamour or Mel's role in the deception, and were told only that Jon sent the rescue team. They may even think that what they see is Mance's normal appearance, doubt anyone at WF saw Mance's real face before the glamour. 3) They never captured Mance at all, only a spearwife or wives, who told them Jon sent for them from the spearwife garrison to participate in the rescue attempt. Thus, they know Mance=Abel, but haven't captured him.

It's really impossible to know for sure, but I'm leaning towards possibility 2 or 3. If the Boltons knew the whole story, I gotta believe they would use that info as well in the blackmail attempt. After all, "The last son of Eddard Stark is conspiring with sorcerous witches, wildlings, deceptive magic and a false usurper king" seems more likely to discredit Jon in the Northmen's eyes than revealing he used subterfuge to save his sister.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Icon misplaced. S'posed to be B) instead of the face with sunglasses, but for some reason it won't change when I edit it.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Doh! Supposed to be the letter b with a half parenthesis around it!

[Faint]

I don't think Mance Rayder was actually captured but I do think one of the spearwives was. Someone must have told Ramsay the information that was in his letter to Jon. How he fits into matters I'm unsure of. Supposedly his mission was to retrieve Arya and Arya only, and having accomplished that (in a manner of speaking), what is left for him to do?

Is it possible he shows up at the Wall again?

[thunder_chicken]

^^^ It's possible the letter is blackmail, but I don't really know how effective it would be. For one thing, Jon has already let thousands of wildlings south of the wall, which would in my mind be more troublesome than allowing Mance to survive, even if it involved lying (Jon already broke his oath and killed a fellow NW). Furthermore, admitting Arya escaped from Ramsey doesn't make Roose or Ramsey look good, and if anything, could promote sympathy for Jon and more bad feelings towards the Boltons if the contents of the letter were made public.

The letter is definitely puzzling me. I can't see how it could have been sent by anyone in Stannis' camp. Stannis could gain something in a short-term tactical sense, but if any rumor that he's lost a battle or died got out to broader Westeros, that would be much more damaging for him long-term. I can't see how Roose or Ramsey would really benefit either (just go out and find the girl!) My best guesses are now a) Melissandre engineered the letter, or B) Someone is taking fake Arya in a completely different direction, and is planting a false trail. The only person with no real dog in the fight right now that I can see would be Asha, if she somehow escaped, and somehow got Theon and Jeyne too.

[Faint]

I clearly think it was sent by Ramsay and his motivation is quite apparent. As for what the letter tells me, it tells me that Ramsay thinks Stannis has been defeated, that he is in possession of Stannis' sword, that he has been told that Theon and 'Arya' have been sent to the Wall, and that he somehow got information out of Mance or, more likely, one of the spearwives.

[thunder_chicken]

I clearly think it was sent by Ramsay and his motivation is quite apparent. As for what the letter tells me, it tells me that Ramsay thinks Stannis has been defeated, that he is in possession of Stannis' sword, that he has been told that Theon and 'Arya' have been sent to the Wall, and that he somehow got information out of Mance or, more likely, one of the spearwives.

I don't see that- in that short window of time he would likely have the ability to go and retrieve them personally (hunt them down- his favorite thing), and wouldn't need to let anyone know they escaped.