Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[mcb]

Well, obviously I didn't do the spoiler tags right. Would anyone be so kind as to tell me what I did wrong? Thanks.

Opening tag is the word spoiler in square brackets, closing tag is the same, only spoiler is preceded by a slash. If you want to do them manually. I prefer to highlight a part of text and chose "spoiler" from under that "special BBCode" icon. Yes, it could be more intuitive.

[Damar]

While it's unlikely, it would have been so awesome if Squirrel managed to stab Ramsay before she got captured/killed. He doesn't seem like much of a fighter without goons or the element of suprise.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Opening tag is the word spoiler in square brackets, closing tag is the same, only spoiler is preceded by a slash. If you want to do them manually. I prefer to highlight a part of text and chose "spoiler" from under that "special BBCode" icon. Yes, it could be more intuitive.

Thank you, my friend.

[alienarea]

I am also supporting the idea that Mance send the latter.

And I wonder if Stannis will win the battle of the ice, Freys being crushed between his forces and the Manderley's, and then has a different plan.

Stannis is thinking about faking death in the gift chapter, and if he were to kill Roose, he still wouldn't gain the trust of the Northmen. So once the Manderley's reveal to him, he gives them his sword and fakes his death. The Manderley's return with Stannis' sword and some Karstark heads and claim victory. In the aftermath, or maybe before, Roose is killed (by Mance, Ramsay, Lady Barbery, ...). Ramsay goes hunting for Arya. This is the situation for Mance to write the letter. He assumes Stannis is dead and the Karstark's were Jon's friends because he doesn't know better, and is exposed for all the north to see because Winterfell is full of Northmen. And only the spearwives keep him warm, i.e. shelter him. He also warns Jon about Ramsay coming, because the letter is unacceptable so Ramsay is on his way north. And all of this will be revealed by Davos, who was the ghost in Winterfell, so there is no need for a new pov.

At the same time Stannis sneaks into KL and kills Cersei.

[MikeDC]

I don't know that the Boltons would catch on right away. The guards were alerted by Jeyne's scream when Frenya killed the guard at the Battlement's Gate. They obviously saw Theon's jump, but if they saw his companion at all, they saw a girl in Squirrel's clothing. They already shot Holly, presumably killed Frenya, my guess is the guards assumption would be Theon ran off with "washerwomen" and would report as much to Bolton. If Squirrel remained in Boltons bedchamber, huddled under wolfskins, no one may have looked very closely for a while. Possibly Jeyne's absence wasn't discovered until well after she and Theon made it to Umber.

Also, we know from the gift chapter that

the Freys came out and were trapped in the pits

and that Jeyne/Theon's escape coincides with the Frey/Manderly mustering and preparation to march out. Even if Jeyne was discovered by the Boltons to have been Theon's companion by then, and Ramsay immediately pursued with a clear trail to follow, he would have had to hunt with this battle going on. And even then, the trail would've led straight to Umber, because we know, again from the gift chapter

Theon/Jeyne only made it a short way before being surrounded by Umber spears.

So, unless the Umbers were the head-on-a-spike "false king's friends" which I doubt, or Ramsay wouldve recovered Jeyne in that event, we can assume it's unlikely Ramsay immediately rushed out.

Also, remember it was Bravossi banker that delivered the two to Stannis. As he was making the same Deepwood Motte to WF trip that Stannis's host was making, and had to backtrack to Stannis's camp, it stands to reason that 1) Umber held the two long enough for Tycho to arrive (unless he was already there), and 2) Tycho and co. weren't bothered by a pursuit.

Heh, you could be right, but mostly I'm just trying to picture the Bravossi banker and Umber shooting the shit.

[hockema56]

They have a better claim than he, and he knows it.

This is completely false. I can't tell you how many times I've heard this, and it's shocking to me how many people believe it's true. You're overlooking one key fact: Right of conquest works both ways. The Targaryens are the lords of Westeros by RIGHT OF CONQUEST and nothing else. Aegon took them by force, and his descendants inherited by his decree. 300 years later, Robert Baratheon took the Iron Throne himself, by RIGHT OF CONQUEST. His conquest was every bit as legitimate, and when he won his war he an HIS DESCENDANTS became the rightful rulers of Westeros. Until Dany, or Aegon, or Jon or whatever other potential Targaryen takes it BACK by right of conquest, Stannis Baratheon is the rightful king. End of story.

[kha_alim]

Theon will win the battle for Winterfell.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Heh, you could be right, but mostly I'm just trying to picture the Bravossi banker and Umber shooting the shit.

Right. A little strained, idle chat about the weather. Then Crowfood assumes from Tycho's 3-tiered hat that he's a Devo fan, and starts singing "Whip It" into the awkward silence, making it worse, then launches into the latest dragon jape he's heard to break the tension. NO WONDER Tycho left so quickly...

[Lord Varys]

Stannis Baratheon is a man of the law. And as a man of the law, he does not give all that much about a 'right of conquest'. Yes, I know that power makes the law, but within the sphere of the law usurpation and a 'right of conquest' are described as treason. If there was a 'right of conquest' within the law, the law itself would be meaningless, since the 'right of conquest' essentially means you can do whatever you want if you can get away with it.

Read the Baratheon appendix of ADwD. Robert Baratheon became king because he was a Targaryen himself, through the female line. He and his brothers are the closest known cousins to Aerys/Rhaella and their children and grandchildren. If all of them had died of natural causes, Robert would have become king.

Further, Robert Baratheon never conquered anything. He defeated a royal army and slew its general, Rhaegar Targaryen, who happened to be the heir to the Iron Throne. But it was House Lannister who conquered King's Landing through treason, and murdered most of the remaining members of the royal family, including the King. Tywin and Jaime did this without Robert's knowledge or approval, so how are their actions Robert's conquest?

After the war, Robert was made king not because he slew Rhaegar, but because he had the best legal claim. If Ned or Jon Arryn had done all the brave stuff (killed Rhaegar in single combat, for instance) Robert would still have become king, since he had the best legal claim to the Iron Throne among the coalition of rebels.

As to the Targaryen conquest: Yes, the initial thing was a conquest of some independent kingdoms, but some of them (Torrhen Stark) just bend the knee without even fighting Aegon - is this truly a conquest? Later on, Aegon created a new Realm, with its new throne - the Iron Throne. He established new laws and customs (the Kingsguard, the Hand of the King etc.), he created the modern Westeros. That's not the same of a violent coup (which essentially is was Robert did, since he just took over the Iron Throne and changed nothing).

But back to Stannis:

Stannis position is that he is the lawful king. Some kind of 'right of conquest' cannot change that. The false king 'Joffrey Baratheon' defeated him on the Blackwater, but Stannis, knowing and believing that he is the rightful king, and least when dealing with all the pretenders in Westeros he dealt with during the War of the Five Kings (i.e. Joffrey, Tommen, Renly, Robb, Balon).

The laws in Westeros state that a younger brother inherits his elder brother's estate and position if said brother does not have legitimate children of his own body. That's why Stannis claims the Iron Throne for himself.

GRRM left it deliberately open until now how Stannis Baratheon feels about his claim when dealing with members of the Old Dynasty. Stannis only backed Robert during the Rebellion because it was his duty as Robert's younger brother. In that capacity he would also have helped Robert to crush any attempt of a Targaryen restoration/invasion while Robert was still king. But we simply don't know if Stannis actually thinks that his claim is better than, say, Dany's or Aegon's, when dealing/being confronted by them.

The fact that Stannis himself does not think that his claim lost credibility because he lost a rather important battle (the Battle of the Blackwater), might indicate that he would have to concede the same right to Dany or Aegon. After all, both Joffrey and Tommen were/are crowned kings on the Iron Throne.

[mcb]

Stannis Baratheon is a man of the law. And as a man of the law, he does not give all that much about a 'right of conquest'. Yes, I know that power makes the law, but within the sphere of the law usurpation and a 'right of conquest' are described as treason. If there was a 'right of conquest' within the law, the law itself would be meaningless, since the 'right of conquest' essentially means you can do whatever you want if you can get away with it.

Read the Baratheon appendix of ADwD. Robert Baratheon became king because he was a Targaryen himself, through the female line. He and his brothers are the closest known cousins to Aerys/Rhaella and their children and grandchildren. If all of them had died of natural causes, Robert would have become king.

He was quite low in the succession line, behind Rhaegar, Aegon, Rhaenys, Viserys and Daenerys. Everyone could become the "legitimate" heir, if he killed enough princes, but Robert neglected even that: he couldn't possibly have claim by blood while Viserys lived.

[Lord Varys]

No one dies that the fact that Robert won his rebellion had an impact on the law. We don't know for sure, but my guess is that Robert Baratheon was only formally crowned after Ser Willen Darry had fled with Viserys and Dany to Braavos. With the rightful king in exile, no one could actually oppose Robert's lawful claim to the Iron Throne.

[mcb]

No one dies that the fact that Robert won his rebellion had an impact on the law. We don't know for sure, but my guess is that Robert Baratheon was only formally crowned after Ser Willen Darry had fled with Viserys and Dany to Braavos. With the rightful king in exile, no one could actually oppose Robert's lawful claim to the Iron Throne.

The rebels decided to make Bob their leader, and future king, because of his Targaryen grandmother, true. If there hadn't been a single Targaryen in the whole genealogical tree of House Baratheon, the new king would still be either Robert, or Ned, or (most probably, I think) Jon Arryn, never Viserys nor Aegon VI. It was just as Renly said: Robert's warhammer was his claim. It became "lawful" simply because his brute force prevailed over the crown's brute force.

When it came to choose a new monarch, all Targaryens were ineligible in the first place, on account of the rebellion.

[Winter Wasnt That Bad]

I must be way out in left field (or Valyria, at the least), because I always thought this is when the Others finally make their entrance into the story, and do a number on Winterfell. Stannis is lucky to evade them, but the Bolton clans, not so much. But I haven't read any like-minded posts, although I admit I didn't read the entire thread.

It's strange to say, but being killed by the Others is not nearly punishment enough for Bastard Bolton. His death should be a lingering one, at the very least.

[MikeDC]

I must be way out in left field (or Valyria, at the least), because I always thought this is when the Others finally make their entrance into the story, and do a number on Winterfell. Stannis is lucky to evade them, but the Bolton clans, not so much. But I haven't read any like-minded posts, although I admit I didn't read the entire thread.

It's strange to say, but being killed by the Others is not nearly punishment enough for Bastard Bolton. His death should be a lingering one, at the very least.

I've always had the sense that Winterfell probably has some sort of magical protection that would let its residents hold out against the Others (in the same way as Coldhands and Mel couldn't cross certain thresholds at the Nightfort and Storm's End). My big picture view is that Winterfell is basically the lifeboat in which a bunch of previously conflicting people are going to get stuck together (Stannis, Mel, Mance, whomever is left of Bolton's men after Stannis kills em, the Northern lords, the Wildlings, Theon, Jon's body) and either sort things out to hold off the Others or start killing each other even before the Others arrive.

[kneo]

2. Manderly/Umber Fifth Column. In aCoK, Manderlys/Umbers were ordered to work together to build boats. We know from Davos chaps that the boats WERE built, and that Manderly's raising men. Therefore, an open channel of communication between the Manderlys/Umbers existed, and still does. We also know from Cersei in aFfC that at the time the Umbers threw in with Ramsay, Moat Cailin was still held by ironmen and that Lord Manderly had "killed" Davos. We know from Stannis in aDwD that when the Umbers came to him, Moat Cailin was still held by ironmen. In short, we see a split Umber allegiance, unknown to the Iron Throne, that happened AFTER Manderly "proved" his loyalty but BEORE Roose joined with Ramsay. For the remainder of this post, I'm referring to them as the Mumberlys, cause they are one in their goals, and have been for a while.

3. Manderly is the master of whispers. Manderly tells Davos that a) the Stark kids are alive, B) He knows it was Ramsay, not Theon, that sacked Winterfell (having learned these things from Wex) and c) the Bolton's played a part in the RW (how he knows this he doesn't say). The only Bolton "secret" he doesn't mention is "Arya's" identity, but as the always brilliant poster tze points out in another thread, his request of "Brave Dany Flint" at "Arya"'s wedding indicates he knows that secret, as well. It's a sure bet that Manderly has told these secrets to at least the Umbers, if not more northmen. Glover knows as well. If the northmen think he can be believed, Theon can confirm all of the secrets, which is one of the reasons the letter demands he be returned.

5. The importance of "Arya" and the true purpose of the letter. Numerous times, the point is made in aDwD that the Bolton's claim rests with "Arya", that the northmen would turn on the Boltons in an instant without that marriage. Indications are that many northmen know "Arya" isn't Arya, but they can't call B.S. for a variety of reasons. From the Bolton's view, someone calling B.S. is a bigger threat to their northern supremacy than Stannis's army could ever be. Losing her is a defcon 5 disaster, but the only thing worse is her escaping to someone who has the both the firsthand knowledge and the political neutrality to be able to call B.S. Someone like Jon Snow, the last son of Eddard Stark. Who would call him a liar if he proclaims "Arya" a fake? Therefore the letter is simply Roose's last desperate attempt at blackmail to ensure Jon's silence. "Tell the north about my bride, I tell the north about Mance. Oh, and your ally is dead. You're alone." Obviously it didn't work. Just as obviously, to me anyway, is that the letter was an unintended byproduct of Stannis/Mumberly's deception. Which brings me to:

You are suggesting that Umbers and Manderly are working together and they know that Arya is fake. However if that's true, why when C Umber finds Theon and Arya asks her about Winterfell's smith and cook?

[VaramyrSixchins]

You are suggesting that Umbers and Manderly are working together and they know that Arya is fake. However if that's true, why when C Umber finds Theon and Arya asks her about Winterfell's smith and cook?

Well, I was suggesting the Mumberly collusion began long before everyone came to WF for the wedding. When I suggested that Manderly told the Umbers Arya was fake, I was referring to Whoresbane and Umbers inside WF. Manderly might not have known Arya was fake until he saw her at the wedding, and Crowfood may still be in the dark about that. That doesn't affect the overall assumption, though, that the Umbers (both in and outside WF) and the Manderlys are planning together to turn on Bolton.

[TheDarkOne]

I like what people are saying about The Others showing up anytime. I would guess Stannis and other central characters will get to Wintefell just in time to be saved, and discover something there, most likely in the crypts, that will turn the tide.

[aryagonnakill]

im re reading dance right now and a passage from a melisndre chapter caught my eye. While looking into the fire " A face took shape within the hearth. Stannis? she thought for just a moment...but no, these were not his features. A wooden face, corpse white. Was this the enemy? A thousand red eyes floating in the rising flames. He sees me. Beside him, a boy with a wolf's face threw back his head and howled." this is on page 407-408 after manderly has sent davos after rickon on skagos. Davos has been described as wood before, he has also been in alot of dungeons lately not getting much sun. I think melisandre is seeing davos with rickon less then halfway through dance.

[bemused]

I think it's pretty obviously Bloodraven and Bran ..a thousand eyes and one ( definitely assaciated with BR ) ...wooden face , corpse white ( he's slowly dying and becoming one with the weirwood ) ...He sees me..( so far Davos has shown no ability of farseeing, having visions , influencing dreams, but Bloodraven has ).

[MikeDC]

I keep seeing people who think that Mance wrote the pink letter, but the one big problem with that is how did he get hold of a raven able to fly to Castle Black? Not to mention, what did he hope to accomplish with that one particular letter?

Presumably they have plenty of Ravens at Winterfell, and Mance, being a smart guy, probably knows how to operate them. If he's stuck in Winterfell, the best he can hope for is to get someone friendly to him. Possibly Snow or Mel, but definitely Wildlings.

He knows that Jon wants "Arya" safe, but the letter states as fact that Jon already has Arya at the Wall. Jon would be able to deduce from that letter that Ramsey doesn't have Arya, and that she's apparently on her way to the Wall, so why would Jon do anything in that case, except perhaps preparing for an attack by the Boltons and sending out riders looking for Arya?

It just doesn't make a lot of sense for it to have been Mance sending the letter.

I think you're overlooking the fact that Jon was very dumb to read the letter and reveal Mance was alive. But even if he hadn't read it out loud, the letter is basically Mance blackmailing Jon (he was just too dense to be blackmailed). The whole NW gave Jon a free pass on going over to the Wildlings, then they, plus Stannis all watched "Mance" get burned alive. Thus, even if Jon didn't reveal it, when word gets around that Mance Rayder is alive in Winterfell, it's going to make it appear that Jon is lying and in league with him.

The letter was Mance saying, "Hey, come help me or you're screwed!"