Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[CBroome1979]

If the letter was Mance trying to save himself through blackmail, why not just write "Hey Jon, I'll F up all your plans and let people know I'm alive if you don't get me out of this mess, sincerely M". If a rescue force is what's needed, the cat will get out of the bag once Mance is saved, anyway. I think the letter is definitely Ramsay, the letter sounds like Ramsay. My hope is that he is just misinformed, and that Manderly and Stannis are deceiving him. I think that Roose Bolton is a clever guy, but he's surrounded himself with dubious allies, and he knows it. Now he has nothing to control these allies with. The Boltons are screwed, period.

[total1402]

OP

Lil Stannis will win.

[MikeDC]

If the letter was Mance trying to save himself through blackmail, why not just write "Hey Jon, I'll F up all your plans and let people know I'm alive if you don't get me out of this mess, sincerely M". If a rescue force is what's needed, the cat will get out of the bag once Mance is saved, anyway.

Right, Jon wouldn't want the cat out of the bag, so an honest request for help wouldn't work. If Jon got a letter like that, he'd simply burn it, let the Boltons eventually catch Mance and kill him. Maybe rumor comes back to the Wildlings and the NW, or maybe not, but it's pretty deniable. Jon's best policy would be to simply hope it all goes away.

If I were Mance, sitting there trying to figure out how to improve my plight, I'd want to create as much chaos as possible. Obviously the Boltons won't help him, the other North men won't help him, and Stannis already had him killed once. Jon, as LC of the NW isn't going to go off to war on his behalf without some really freaking good reason.

[aryagonnakill]

I think it's pretty obviously Bloodraven and Bran ..a thousand eyes and one ( definitely assaciated with BR ) ...wooden face , corpse white ( he's slowly dying and becoming one with the weirwood ) ...He sees me..( so far Davos has shown no ability of farseeing, having visions , influencing dreams, but Bloodraven has ).

I thought about that and it could very well be true, likely we'll never know anyway but a few things make me believe it was stannis and rickon. First it seems unlikely that melissandre would confuse bloodraven with stannis, even for a moment. Secondly the readers know that bran is with bloodraven and we don't gain anything from hearing it again, although that might not matter at all. Last i don't see any reason for bran to howl while next to blood raven. And also reading the whole passage it makes it sound as tho they are standing, but that may just be how i interpret it

[MikeDC]

I'm sure they do have plenty of ravens in Winterfell...in the rookery, which I'm fairly sure would have restricted access, since you wouldn't want potential infiltrators having access to birds that may, for example, call down thousands of hostile wildlings upon your head.

That seems to be a backward rationalization to me. About the last thing anyone in Winterfell seems concerned about is an infiltrator calling down a Wildling invasion. I've never seen anything in any of asoiaf to suggest that ravens are at all guarded. And given that even many nobles seem illiterate, there's little point to it, since it's a rare person who'd know how to send a message.

Help him do what?

Err... live. Secondarily, get a bunch of Wildlings to Winterfell where they might be relatively safe from the Others.

I'm going to transpose the two parts of your quote to point out what you're missing:

One other thing that didn't make sense to me is Jon separating the wildlings from the Watch in this instance. Everyone at Castle Black knows they don't have Arya there, and Ramsey is threatening the Watch, not just Jon. Therefore, Jon is taking no sides in the political arena by protecting the Watch by meeting Ramsey in battle. It was just an odd choice on his part.

Think this out. Everyone at Castle Black knows they don't have Arya there, right. So that means Ramsay's threat doesn't make any sense at all. A NW member who heard such a threat would reasonably say "Fine, come on up and see us, and you'll see we're not hiding anything".

The Wildlings and the Watch want to kill each other. Each harbors suspicions/fears/beliefs that Jon has/is/will betray them to the other. So in that context, Jon going goofy, letting slip that Mance is alive, and then trying to march off to fight Ramsay isn't exactly doing the Watch any favors.

And seriously, Jon thinks the letter came from Ramsey, so why the hell would he rush off to save Mance from Ramsey when, according to the letter itself, Mance's entire reason for going to Winterfell in the first place (saving "Arya") has at least partially been accomplished. Jon should have done exactly what he did, which is preparing to meet Ramsey in the field since Ramsey is threatening to march on the wall. It just makes absolutely no sense for Mance to have sent that particular letter and the reasoning supporting it is extremely convoluted.

The reasoning for Mance to send the letter is very simple. Who is he? He's the King Beyond the Wall. What are his goals? To lead his people South so they don't all get turned into Other-fodder. But, assuming for the moment he's stuck in Winterfell, his options for saving his own skin and accomplishing his royal goals are both pretty limited. He can't hope for any clemency from Stannis if he wins, and he can't hope for any mercy from the Boltons or other North men if they win. So what's he supposed to do?

Again, just saying "Hey Jon, help a brother out and come get me" really isn't gonna get it done, because Mance is a traitor to the NW. And a straighforward blackmail seems out of the question too, since Jon would be better off hoping someone kills Mance and only rumors of him come back. So instead, Mance throws every bit of emotional baggage he can at Jon (talking about Arya and threatening the NW) the Wildlings (talking about him being alive, wanting Val and Mance's son as hostages) and Mel and the Queen's men (wanting her and the Queen and Princess as hostages), thinking if enough shit gets stirred up, it might get out to enough Wildlings to get down to Winterfell.

[GentlemanBastard]

I think at the very least Stannis with the Manderlys will win the battle in the blizzard. Now since the letter got to castle black and the fact that winterfell is still winterfell he'll probably head away from winterfell with the majority of his host. Stannis is a good enough tactician to realize without the 2000 Freys and 1000 Manderlys eating their fill Bolton's men will last even longer during a siege. He also realizes that the southron knights wouldn't last another month in the northern cold. Due to lack of cold weather gear and rations he'll probably hammer out a makeshift alliance with the manderlys to either shelter them in white harbor or get supply lines open for a long siege. Another route may be that a false flag (Stag in Weasel Clothing) operation or the blizzard itself would mask the approach of stannis's assualt forces and take both walls before the bolton forces in the castle can counterattack. We'll see.

[bemused]

Maester Luwin's ravens are all flying about loose..There's been nothing in the books to say Mance would be able to tell one from another, and he'd have to catch one.. The 3 northern maesters who came with Roose are supposed to try to take charge of those ravens ,but there's been no sign of them having done it yet. They would also have their own caged ravens with them, but Mance ,on his own , might have a hard time getting one of those.

However , if Lady Dustin and even just one of those maesters are Northern agents, he could have help from that quarter ... and ( outside and unknown possibility ) if Benjen is the HM , and working with them, he would know Mance's ID. ( well, if he's there , he could be the author himself.. :D)

Stannis would have at least equal ability to send the letter ,depending on what's going on with those ravens.

Roose and Ramsay would , of course have the ability.

We don't know ( and won't for a while ) if Jon thinks Ramsay sent the letter..he thinks there is truth in the letter. And from his thought about getting Mel to locate Ramsay , we know that one thing he definitely takes for truth is that Ramsay is on his way.

[RedViper_of_Dorne]

Stanis can even capture Ramsay :), if the Manderlys turn to his side the Freys will be in the middle with Ramsay.

But if Stanis loose the first battle he has no hope to take Winterfell. Stanis have less man and he have supply problems and the winter is hard on him. Bolton is inside a castle will food and walls to protect him. Stanis will need a trick to take Winterfell this for sure, so maybe a surprise from GRRM.

It may sound stupid but we are in book 6, the end is coming soon. GRRM maybe will try to unite most of the caracters then maybe finish with the North with a winner (stanis) and go south agains a new rival or go north if The Others appair!

[Cuttlefish]

Realistically speaking, I think Ramsay's letter MUST be a lie, because the idea of a seven days battle is rather silly. Battles of such a time period took only a few hours (the fact Hastings took around 9 hours is considered a proof of the tenacity of both sides).

And I aslo think, remaining in Winterfell is a big mistake for Roose Bolton. If the forces he sent are defeated, which is not entirely unlikely, already fragile support of the Northern lord may disperse, and what can Roose do about it, being trapped inside Winterfell with what I assume to be is a demoralized army.

As much as I like Stannis, however, if Theon and Asha are going to play a part in the future of the story, Stannis has to die.

[bemused]

Yeah , Roose needs them at least to blow off some steam..let them take it all out on Stannis . If that doesn't cool them off and they fall on each other anyway , better for him if that happens outside WF rather than inside.

[Seabright]

Stannis will win. He knows that the Bolton forces will upon him shortly. He is a good tactician and will come up with a cunning plan, probably involving the Swiss Cheese Lake.

Following the battle he sends a message to the bastard in winterfell via a Karstark raven, saying the boltons won after 7day fight. To help with his story he sends a rider back with his sword, and the information that "reek" and "Arya" have fled to the wall.

Ramsay has found and tortured Mance and got the truth from him.

Ramsay writes his letter which contains what he thinks is the truth.

All the subterfuge is for either/or luring Ramsay out on the trail of "Reek/Arya" or getting some Trojan "Freys" into Winterfell.

[ckal]

Stannis, please. I pray to the old Gods, the Seven, the Drowned God and the Lord of Light for him to be victorious.

[evita mgfs]

Here are a few of my observations that can affect [or not] Bolton’s letter:

1. Winter HAS come – the Stark’s “words” fulfilled, and it is coming, and coming and coming.

2. Despite tremendous difficulty – and for what meaningful purpose – does Lady Dustin have the crypt opened – allowing access to the dead?

3. Swords are missing from the Kings and Lords of Winter, iron swords to keep their restless spirits at bay.

4. So – what happens if the crypts are opened to find “Winter is coming" and worst of all . . .

5. There is No Stark in Winterfell, the magic force to hold the spirits as a last defense.

6. Will the ravens cooperate? Note the army of ravens that gather on the weirwood with its smiling face during the wedding ceremony. I think the birds are agents of BloodRaven, Bran, and children of the forest. They also came with or before Cold Hand’s appearance in SOS. (Luwin’s ravens may still fly – but through such a storm?)

7. Will Coldhands arrive for the battle?

8. And what about poor dead Ned, whose remains are not yet in a crypt. Will he rise to lead the dead Starks on the Winterfell intruders? (or does Howland Reed have Ned safe in the marshes?)

9. And where did Meera and Jojen disappear to at the end of Bran’s POV, and what was Jojen’s mysterious greendream he does not share?

Just thoughts.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Maybe Mance is actually the Stark in Winterfell, trying to access his own ancestral crypt for what secrets it may hold. He could be the son of some Stark brother of the night’s watch and a wilding.

[houseHB]

Maybe Manderly is the one who wrote the letter to Jon. Knows about Jon's will? He instructed his men to betray the Frey camp. Afterwards he chopped off a Frey head like he did with Davos dipped the head in tar and returned it to Winterfell to show the Boltons who think Stannis is now dead?

[evita mgfs]

Stannis will win. He knows that the Bolton forces will upon him shortly. He is a good tactician and will come up with a cunning plan, probably involving the Swiss Cheese Lake.

Following the battle he sends a message to the bastard in winterfell via a Karstark raven, saying the boltons won after 7day fight. To help with his story he sends a rider back with his sword, and the information that "reek" and "Arya" have fled to the wall.

Ramsay has found and tortured Mance and got the truth from him.

Ramsay writes his letter which contains what he thinks is the truth.

All the subterfuge is for either/or luring Ramsay out on the trail of "Reek/Arya" or getting some Trojan "Freys" into Winterfell.

I posted earlier and wondered if you thought the raven army and laughing weirwood during the wedding bodes ill for Boltons? Do you think those ravens muttering "murder" will allow a Bastard raven through their numbers during a storm? I think BR and Bran have something terrible in store for the false prince of Winterfell - or I hope!

[sumant30]

I don't know if stannis can really win the battle for winterfell although everyone thinks he is smart commander with good battle tactics but the evidence is contrary to this, because at blackwater we can see davos pondering why should they smash all at once on king's landing instead they should have sent some scouts to see what was waiting for them there.also stannis is a southren king and he does not know the north the same can be said of frey army only people in that group who know north is manderly army, but with their lord in WF i don't think they will betray the freys, so i am hoping stannis really gets smashed and the bastard of bolton has another reek :D

[(Nightshade)]

I don't know if stannis can really win the battle for winterfell although everyone thinks he is smart commander with good battle tactics but the evidence is contrary to this, because at blackwater we can see davos pondering why should they smash all at once on king's landing instead they should have sent some scouts to see what was waiting for them there.

That was Ser Imry Florent's idea, and stupidity for not listening to Davos.

also stannis is a southren king and he does not know the north

True, the Southron knights are already dying like flies but not Stannis. And if there's anyone who knows the North, it would be the Northern hilltribes who are currently with Stannis.

so i am hoping stannis really gets smashed and the bastard of bolton has another reek

He already got smashed big time at Blackwater. Ramsay already had two (or was it three?) Reeks. It would be too redundant and also a waste of potentially awesome shit-going-down moment.

[Tybalt]

Winter is coming or has come. The North remembers.

The mood is primed for a Stark resurgance. Really how much more can they take without being removed from the plot already? Jon presumably dead (pretty much popular belief he's going to live/be reanimated as well as R+L=J), Bran and Rickon still wandering around, Sansa, Ayra is now trained (somewhat), and Lady Stoneheart's wrath. I'd be pretty scared of the Starks, except everyone percieves them to be dead. I believe this will prove advantegous for the North with the Southern Lords dropping left and right.

The cold ones will defintely make an appearance, and with a renewed Jon and a motivated Stannis, this will prove to be an epic battle. Hopefully we'll have another Blackwateresque battle.

So many questions though!

[aryagonnakill]

That was Ser Imry Florent's idea, and stupidity for not listening to Davos.

True, the Southron knights are already dying like flies but not Stannis. And if there's anyone who knows the North, it would be the Northern hilltribes who are currently with Stannis.

He already got smashed big time at Blackwater. Ramsay already had two (or was it three?) Reeks. It would be too redundant and also a waste of potentially awesome shit-going-down moment.

I agree that Stannis will win, but I'd just like to include that I also agree with sumant30 that what we have seen of Stannis thus far doesn't paint a picture of him being a master commander, we only have that impression because we've been told about what he did during Robert's rebellion. It was Florent's idea to send his entire fleet up the blackwater, but it was Stannis' idea to put Florent in charge, and to attack kingslanding in the first place, which he shouldn't have done while tywin lannister and mace tyrell were still out and about with huge host's. The rest of his success' thus far have come from the good advice of davos and jon, meaning going to the wall then taking deepwood mott, and btw he got pretty lucky at deepwood mott, asha left the defensible castle for the un-defensible wolfswood, unless Stannis somehow predicted her retreat, sending those 5 men ahead of the main force was a mistake.