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Who will win the battle of Winterfell?


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As much as I like Stannis, however, if Theon and Asha are going to play a part in the future of the story, Stannis has to die.

I'll say something about Theon's predicament later, but from what I saw of Asha in the spoiler chapter she clearly still has a large part to play in the story and if anything showing us Stannis is a large part of that.

A lot has changed between Asha and Stannis in the scene, firstly her chains are gone and he grants her an audience before he hears the Northern lords. However most importantly Asha seems to have learned how to speak to Stannis (cut all the crap, flowerly talk, show a basic level of respect and above all give good honest council whether he wants to hear it or not) and as a result he does actually listen to her and importantly he recognizes her considerable intelligence. Asha Greyjoy if she keeps it up could arguably do very well in Stannis' court - and he is an ally she could use to assert her claim over the Iron isles (so long as she prepared to the Lady of Iron Isles rather than the Iron Queen) after all Stannis would recognise her uncle Euron as having usurped her and Theon's inheritance rights.

The other thing about Asha that is well worth stressing is now she seems to be freed (didn't Tycho Nestoris pay her and her followers' ransoms?) she will almost definitely be the POV from which we see the battle. There is also a vacancy opened in Stannis' army in the very same spoiler chapter in that Stannis shows mercy by not charging the 400 odd Karstark men-at-arms with the treason plotted by their commanders Arnolf Karstark and his sons. Now Stannis on a verge of a crucial battle has 400 men without leaders to follow, however the arrival of Asha's seven companions Tris Botley, Qarl the Maid, etc gives him some leaders without men to lead. The obvious solution is to give Asha and her companions command of the Karstark men which as a division entirely made up individuals pardoned by Stannis will have an added incentive of proving the King's faith in them was not ill placed.

As for Theon I must stress Stannis is actually not the main reason why his life is currently in jeopardy. That would be the Northern Lords who are likely to mutiny if Stannis does not execute the murderer of the Ned's little boys. Stannis' hands are arguably tied; he knows he must do whatever he can to keep those Northmen on side. Due to this nothing short of divine intervention by the 'Old Gods' will save Theon's life... which considering the way a certain POV is now going may actually be what happens!

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It was a combination of bad luck which made Stannis lose the Battle of the Blackwater.

1. There was Tyrion's good tactic with the chain and all. A good commander (like Davos) might have realized at least that, but no one could have predicted the amount of wildfire the Lannisters had. Ser Imry was not the brightest commander under the sun, but he was Stannis's brother-in-law, and the family of his wife were mostly responsible for the men he won after Renly's death (being the first who declared for him), so he could not really afford to sideline them. And all Florent had to do was fight Joffrey's small fleet, and establish a landing site to get Stannis's main host across the river. The guy should have been able to do that.

2. Shagga and his men killed most if not all of Stannis's scouts protecting his rear. That's what enabled Tywin and Mace to surprise Stannis. Had he not been surprised, Stannis would have given them a battle, and no one could have foreseen how that ended. Stannis still stood and fought but the whole Renly's ghost thing broke most of his men. That would also have not been possible if Stannis had not been surprised. Only because the men were surprised they actually considered/believed that whoever fought under the Lannister/Tyrell banner might be Renly Baratheon.

Stannis won every other battle he ever fought (true, there might be not that much, since the Siege of Storm's End was only a siege, and Dragonstone seemed to have yielded without a fight), but breaking of the Ironborn at sea is an accomplishment of its own. Victarion Greyjoy may be a complete moron but the man knows how to fight a battle at sea.

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Knight of the Tea Bags... you make some excellent points about Asha and Stannis. Asha and her men may survive and actually advance as part of Stannis's army. Asha and her men have nothing to go back to with Euron in charge. She may outlive all her royal family by the end of the series.

Theon could still survive too, if Davos showed up with Rickon in the nick of time...maybe.

But Theon is a broken man. He cannot recover or heal. Death is a mercy for Theon... so I am hoping he gets to die by Stannis's sword.

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Okay, how about this...

An army of Frey's and Manderly's have been sent from Winterfell to confront Stannis in the village. When they arrive, however, the Manderly's slay all of the Frey's, and pledge their loyalty to Stannis. Stannis sends half of them back to Wintefell with Lightbringer, as proof of his defeat. And then, later that night, after everyone is drunk on victory or sound asleep, the Manderly men open the gates of Winterfell, and let Stannis inside the castle.

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That was Ser Imry Florent's idea, and stupidity for not listening to Davos.

True, the Southron knights are already dying like flies but not Stannis. And if there's anyone who knows the North, it would be the Northern hilltribes who are currently with Stannis.

He already got smashed big time at Blackwater. Ramsay already had two (or was it three?) Reeks. It would be too redundant and also a waste of potentially awesome shit-going-down moment.

But still even if frey army descends on stannis without any manderly army help he will be smashed for sure, because i find it hard for manderly army to go against freys as their lord is in WF.

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Okay, how about this...

An army of Frey's and Manderly's have been sent from Winterfell to confront Stannis in the village. When they arrive, however, the Manderly's slay all of the Frey's, and pledge their loyalty to Stannis. Stannis sends half of them back to Wintefell with Lightbringer, as proof of his defeat. And then, later that night, after everyone is drunk on victory or sound asleep, the Manderly men open the gates of Winterfell, and let Stannis inside the castle.

I think roose bolton is not so dumb to see howcome all manderly army made it alive without not a single frey bannerman, i think roose's plan is to move out of the castle as many hungry mouths as possible and even if they win i don't think he will open the gates for any one that may be his master plan.Also with lord manderly in WF they can't lay a siege to the castle.

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Winter is coming or has come. The North remembers.

The mood is primed for a Stark resurgance. Really how much more can they take without being removed from the plot already? Jon presumably dead (pretty much popular belief he's going to live/be reanimated as well as R+L=J), Bran and Rickon still wandering around, Sansa, Ayra is now trained (somewhat), and Lady Stoneheart's wrath. I'd be pretty scared of the Starks, except everyone percieves them to be dead. I believe this will prove advantegous for the North with the Southern Lords dropping left and right.

The cold ones will defintely make an appearance, and with a renewed Jon and a motivated Stannis, this will prove to be an epic battle. Hopefully we'll have another Blackwateresque battle.

So many questions though!

I don't think we will see a full stark vengenance till ADOS because they are all scattered and in no position to do anything even though sansa is properly poised in vale hoping she can outwit LF which i think is very difficult.If rickon returns it could be gathering point for north but we are talking about GRRM here so i don't think this will happen there will be some twist to it also.

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I'll say something about Theon's predicament later, but from what I saw of Asha in the spoiler chapter she clearly still has a large part to play in the story and if anything showing us Stannis is a large part of that.

A lot has changed between Asha and Stannis in the scene, firstly her chains are gone and he grants her an audience before he hears the Northern lords. However most importantly Asha seems to have learned how to speak to Stannis (cut all the crap, flowerly talk, show a basic level of respect and above all give good honest council whether he wants to hear it or not) and as a result he does actually listen to her and importantly he recognizes her considerable intelligence. Asha Greyjoy if she keeps it up could arguably do very well in Stannis' court - and he is an ally she could use to assert her claim over the Iron isles (so long as she prepared to the Lady of Iron Isles rather than the Iron Queen) after all Stannis would recognise her uncle Euron as having usurped her and Theon's inheritance rights.

The other thing about Asha that is well worth stressing is now she seems to be freed (didn't Tycho Nestoris pay her and her followers' ransoms?) she will almost definitely be the POV from which we see the battle. There is also a vacancy opened in Stannis' army in the very same spoiler chapter in that Stannis shows mercy by not charging the 400 odd Karstark men-at-arms with the treason plotted by their commanders Arnolf Karstark and his sons. Now Stannis on a verge of a crucial battle has 400 men without leaders to follow, however the arrival of Asha's seven companions Tris Botley, Qarl the Maid, etc gives him some leaders without men to lead. The obvious solution is to give Asha and her companions command of the Karstark men which as a division entirely made up individuals pardoned by Stannis will have an added incentive of proving the King's faith in them was not ill placed.

As for Theon I must stress Stannis is actually not the main reason why his life is currently in jeopardy. That would be the Northern Lords who are likely to mutiny if Stannis does not execute the murderer of the Ned's little boys. Stannis' hands are arguably tied; he knows he must do whatever he can to keep those Northmen on side. Due to this nothing short of divine intervention by the 'Old Gods' will save Theon's life... which considering the way a certain POV is now going may actually be what happens!

The kastark men following iron lady i find it too far fetched weren't they who attacked the north from the back and took WF so the chances of that happening are prettyl slim.Also remember stannis is pitted against roose bolton here and i think roose is very cunning for stannis for him to stand a chance.

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It was a combination of bad luck which made Stannis lose the Battle of the Blackwater.

1. There was Tyrion's good tactic with the chain and all. A good commander (like Davos) might have realized at least that, but no one could have predicted the amount of wildfire the Lannisters had. Ser Imry was not the brightest commander under the sun, but he was Stannis's brother-in-law, and the family of his wife were mostly responsible for the men he won after Renly's death (being the first who declared for him), so he could not really afford to sideline them. And all Florent had to do was fight Joffrey's small fleet, and establish a landing site to get Stannis's main host across the river. The guy should have been able to do that.

2. Shagga and his men killed most if not all of Stannis's scouts protecting his rear. That's what enabled Tywin and Mace to surprise Stannis. Had he not been surprised, Stannis would have given them a battle, and no one could have foreseen how that ended. Stannis still stood and fought but the whole Renly's ghost thing broke most of his men. That would also have not been possible if Stannis had not been surprised. Only because the men were surprised they actually considered/believed that whoever fought under the Lannister/Tyrell banner might be Renly Baratheon.

Stannis won every other battle he ever fought (true, there might be not that much, since the Siege of Storm's End was only a siege, and Dragonstone seemed to have yielded without a fight), but breaking of the Ironborn at sea is an accomplishment of its own. Victarion Greyjoy may be a complete moron but the man knows how to fight a battle at sea.

1> I think stannis also agreed with florent tactic because i think he is the type of man who will not care if the florents got offended if stannis did not agree with their plans to smash had strong in kl, beacuse thats why he keeps davos with him so that he can get sound advice and the truth from him everytime, so if he had not agreed he would have asked davos what he thought about the plan but he did not so we can assume that he in with the plan with florents to smash headstrong.

2>The other mistake was when renly was slain he lay seige to storm's end although it was correct because they could have caught him from the rear but even tyrion was suprised by that tactic and also that time the chain was not ready, so instead of wasting so much time on storm's end he should have let edric storm go with ser courtney penrose taken the castle and should have taken KL as fast as he can from sea as well as from the land so lannisters would also have had no time to do a treaty with highgarden.Also he completely ignores the martells, beacuse they are definitely against the lannisters beacuse of elia i think it was masterstroke by tyrion by sending marcella to dawn he should have tried to do something about it but he was just sitting on dragonstone this much time, he just went to the storm lords for their fealty but ignored dawn that was his mistake again.

3>Also he is pittied against roose bolton here who is way too cunning for him although he is a monster he is a cunning monster.

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I think roose bolton is not so dumb to see howcome all manderly army made it alive without not a single frey bannerman, i think roose's plan is to move out of the castle as many hungry mouths as possible and even if they win i don't think he will open the gates for any one that may be his master plan.Also with lord manderly in WF they can't lay a siege to the castle.

IMO one of Roose's mistakes is that he intend to use Lord Wyman as a hostage. I think the Manderly host has instructions to consider Wyman a dead man as soon as they leave Winterfell. His heir is safe at White harbour and he fully intends to die (my body has become a prison more dire that the Wolf's Den).

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I agree that Stannis will win, but I'd just like to include that I also agree with sumant30 that what we have seen of Stannis thus far doesn't paint a picture of him being a master commander, we only have that impression because we've been told about what he did during Robert's rebellion. It was Florent's idea to send his entire fleet up the blackwater, but it was Stannis' idea to put Florent in charge, and to attack kingslanding in the first place, which he shouldn't have done while tywin lannister and mace tyrell were still out and about with huge host's. The rest of his success' thus far have come from the good advice of davos and jon, meaning going to the wall then taking deepwood mott, and btw he got pretty lucky at deepwood mott, asha left the defensible castle for the un-defensible wolfswood, unless Stannis somehow predicted her retreat, sending those 5 men ahead of the main force was a mistake.

I agree that many think stannis is a formidable battle commander but he has done many grevious mistakes thats why he lost the battle of blackwater bay, also remember he is pitted against roose bolton the most cunning of north lords so i think his chances are pretty slim, also many people think manderly army will side with stannis but with their lord in WF i don't think they want roose wearing such a big skin.

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IMO one of Roose's mistakes is that he intend to use Lord Wyman as a hostage. I think the Manderly host has instructions to consider Wyman a dead man as soon as they leave Winterfell. His heir is safe at White harbour and he fully intends to die (my body has become a prison more dire that the Wolf's Den).

Even if they do not consider lord wyman as a hostage i think roose bolton intends all the frey and WH men to perish in snow i don't think he will open the gates any way even if they lose or win that is his master plan according to me and with all bolton host to guard winterfell and less mouths to feed i think bolton has a very good chance of surviving and even if ramsey does not agree he has his own men surrounding ramsey, so one look and ramsey will be given to his bitches to feed on.

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I agree that Stannis will win, but I'd just like to include that I also agree with sumant30 that what we have seen of Stannis thus far doesn't paint a picture of him being a master commander, we only have that impression because we've been told about what he did during Robert's rebellion. It was Florent's idea to send his entire fleet up the blackwater, but it was Stannis' idea to put Florent in charge, and to attack kingslanding in the first place, which he shouldn't have done while tywin lannister and mace tyrell were still out and about with huge host's. The rest of his success' thus far have come from the good advice of davos and jon, meaning going to the wall then taking deepwood mott, and btw he got pretty lucky at deepwood mott, asha left the defensible castle for the un-defensible wolfswood, unless Stannis somehow predicted her retreat, sending those 5 men ahead of the main force was a mistake.

I'm not saying that Stannis is the Best Battle Commander of Westeros™. Everything about this battle points to Stannis having a huge disadvantage -- smaller army, freezing/starving men with low morale -- but he stills seemed pretty confident about something he is planning regarding having the "higher ground". We don't know what it is so it will most likely work, as other posters have pointed out -- the plans we know mostly fail and the ones that surprise us works (Tyrion's chain, Stannis' battle at Castle Black, Tywin routing his army at KL, Drogon's dracarys, etc).

But still even if frey army descends on stannis without any manderly army help he will be smashed for sure, because i find it hard for manderly army to go against freys as their lord is in WF.

Manderly and Frey already fought in front of their Lord inside Winterfell. What do you think he'll do when they're outside? The mummer's farce is almost done.

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I'm not saying that Stannis is the Best Battle Commander of Westeros™. Everything about this battle points to Stannis having a huge disadvantage -- smaller army, freezing/starving men with low morale -- but he stills seemed pretty confident about something he is planning regarding having the "higher ground". We don't know what it is so it will most likely work, as other posters have pointed out -- the plans we know mostly fail and the ones that surprise us works (Tyrion's chain, Stannis' battle at Castle Black, Tywin routing his army at KL, Drogon's dracarys, etc).

Manderly and Frey already fought in front of their Lord inside Winterfell. What do you think he'll do when they're outside? The mummer's farce is almost done.

If manderly and frey fight outside considering manderly army doesn't give a damn about their lord in WF or they have been told so by manderly and manderly army prevail with the help of stannis how can they get inside WF because i don't think roose bolton is going to open his gates he means to both the armies to die in snow that is the master plan of roose bolton according to me so if they win/lose he doesn't mean to open his gates.

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When discussing the fate of Stannis we should always keep in mind that technically we all are supposed to read the first Theon chapter when we finally read all of TWoW. It's mainly this chapter which sets the stage for Stannis being victorious in the coming battle. ADwD carefully set up Stannis's likely defeat by showing us the suffering of (southron) men and horses in detail, by the slow uncovering of the planned Karstark betrayal (to the reader, not Stannis), and by the Pink Letter in the end.

We leave ADwD with the strong feeling that Stannis's demise is entirely possible. If Ramsay had been directly behind Theon and Jeyne, the battle could have begun before Stannis was able to deal with the Karstark betrayal. That would have cost him dearly and might have sealed his demise.

But the first Theon strongly gives us a completely different impression of the whole setting, so it's more than likely the Pink Letter was completely false considering the whole Stannis topic. After all, if Stannis was truly dead, GRRM could/should (for pacing reasons) tell about the battle retrospectively from either Theon's or Asha's POV. If Stannis would really die we would already knew that, and thus the whole battle scenario would not be that interesting (especially since neither Asha nor Theon would be close to Stannis when he died since they apparently somehow got away - Theon being caught again by Ramsay would make little sense, especially since Ramsay would just kill him this time, I think). Having Davos chapters in ADwD (and not in AFfC!) only made sense because he did not die the way he supposed to die in ADwD. Had GRRM intended to kill Davos at White Harbor the bright thing to do would have been to include his chapters in AFfC, not in ADwD.

So I can only conclude that Stannis is most likely not going to die during that battle. This does not mean that he is going to survive TWoW, but he won't die in the beginning at that lake.

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When discussing the fate of Stannis we should always keep in mind that technically we all are supposed to read the first Theon chapter when we finally read all of TWoW. It's mainly this chapter which sets the stage for Stannis being victorious in the coming battle. ADwD carefully set up Stannis's likely defeat by showing us the suffering of (southron) men and horses in detail, by the slow uncovering of the planned Karstark betrayal (to the reader, not Stannis), and by the Pink Letter in the end.

We leave ADwD with the strong feeling that Stannis's demise is entirely possible. If Ramsay had been directly behind Theon and Jeyne, the battle could have begun before Stannis was able to deal with the Karstark betrayal. That would have cost him dearly and might have sealed his demise.

But the first Theon strongly gives us a completely different impression of the whole setting, so it's more than likely the Pink Letter was completely false considering the whole Stannis topic. After all, if Stannis was truly dead, GRRM could/should (for pacing reasons) tell about the battle retrospectively from either Theon's or Asha's POV. If Stannis would really die we would already knew that, and thus the whole battle scenario would not be that interesting (especially since neither Asha nor Theon would be close to Stannis when he died since they apparently somehow got away - Theon being caught again by Ramsay would make little sense, especially since Ramsay would just kill him this time, I think). Having Davos chapters in ADwD (and not in AFfC!) only made sense because he did not die the way he supposed to die in ADwD. Had GRRM intended to kill Davos at White Harbor the bright thing to do would have been to include his chapters in AFfC, not in ADwD.

So I can only conclude that Stannis is most likely not going to die during that battle. This does not mean that he is going to survive TWoW, but he won't die in the beginning at that lake.

That seems a fair point.

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When discussing the fate of Stannis we should always keep in mind that technically we all are supposed to read the first Theon chapter when we finally read all of TWoW. It's mainly this chapter which sets the stage for Stannis being victorious in the coming battle. ADwD carefully set up Stannis's likely defeat by showing us the suffering of (southron) men and horses in detail, by the slow uncovering of the planned Karstark betrayal (to the reader, not Stannis), and by the Pink Letter in the end.

We leave ADwD with the strong feeling that Stannis's demise is entirely possible. If Ramsay had been directly behind Theon and Jeyne, the battle could have begun before Stannis was able to deal with the Karstark betrayal. That would have cost him dearly and might have sealed his demise.

But the first Theon strongly gives us a completely different impression of the whole setting, so it's more than likely the Pink Letter was completely false considering the whole Stannis topic. After all, if Stannis was truly dead, GRRM could/should (for pacing reasons) tell about the battle retrospectively from either Theon's or Asha's POV. If Stannis would really die we would already knew that, and thus the whole battle scenario would not be that interesting (especially since neither Asha nor Theon would be close to Stannis when he died since they apparently somehow got away - Theon being caught again by Ramsay would make little sense, especially since Ramsay would just kill him this time, I think). Having Davos chapters in ADwD (and not in AFfC!) only made sense because he did not die the way he supposed to die in ADwD. Had GRRM intended to kill Davos at White Harbor the bright thing to do would have been to include his chapters in AFfC, not in ADwD.

So I can only conclude that Stannis is most likely not going to die during that battle. This does not mean that he is going to survive TWoW, but he won't die in the beginning at that lake.

I have to agree with you as well

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When discussing the fate of Stannis we should always keep in mind that technically we all are supposed to read the first Theon chapter when we finally read all of TWoW. It's mainly this chapter which sets the stage for Stannis being victorious in the coming battle. ADwD carefully set up Stannis's likely defeat by showing us the suffering of (southron) men and horses in detail, by the slow uncovering of the planned Karstark betrayal (to the reader, not Stannis), and by the Pink Letter in the end.

We leave ADwD with the strong feeling that Stannis's demise is entirely possible. If Ramsay had been directly behind Theon and Jeyne, the battle could have begun before Stannis was able to deal with the Karstark betrayal. That would have cost him dearly and might have sealed his demise.

But the first Theon strongly gives us a completely different impression of the whole setting, so it's more than likely the Pink Letter was completely false considering the whole Stannis topic. After all, if Stannis was truly dead, GRRM could/should (for pacing reasons) tell about the battle retrospectively from either Theon's or Asha's POV. If Stannis would really die we would already knew that, and thus the whole battle scenario would not be that interesting (especially since neither Asha nor Theon would be close to Stannis when he died since they apparently somehow got away - Theon being caught again by Ramsay would make little sense, especially since Ramsay would just kill him this time, I think). Having Davos chapters in ADwD (and not in AFfC!) only made sense because he did not die the way he supposed to die in ADwD. Had GRRM intended to kill Davos at White Harbor the bright thing to do would have been to include his chapters in AFfC, not in ADwD.

So I can only conclude that Stannis is most likely not going to die during that battle. This does not mean that he is going to survive TWoW, but he won't die in the beginning at that lake.

Awesome post. I have not read the gift chapters – I am still trying to connect things in the other books.

Don’t laugh – but I am tracing all these references to “old gods” and the “murder” of ravens. To cut to the chase, I am thinking along the lines of Aida – but not as romantic – the prince and slave girl entombed together because of their forbidden love? Roose and Ramsay and company seal their own fate “literally.”

Theon’s POV says, Old Nan told “of storms that raged for a year, ten years . . . storms that buried castles and cities and whole kingdoms under 100 feet of snow” (DWD 674).

Theon says, “Endless, ceaseless, merciless snow has fallen day and night” (605).

When Lady Barbrey says, “let winter do its worst” (607) Theon marvels at her folly since she is from the North and the old gods may be listening. WE know they are!

In the crypt, Theon recalls “Lord Beron Stark, who made common cause with Casterly Rock to war against Dagon Greyjoy, Lord of Pyke, in the days when the seven kingdoms were ruled in all but name by the bastard sorcerer men called Bloodraven” (546).

Before their descent, Dustin calls for “Beron, the light.” Supposedly her serjeant with the light is called Beron? Is that ironic? A coincidence? Does she need light and Beron to work her magic? Is she in the crypts to awaken the stone men? – and the connection with Bloodraven? – I am not sure. Is she an agent? Is she opening the crypts for the arrival of someone? Or to release something?

A raven army appears during the false wedding with a laughing weirwood, a raven quorks during Bolton, Theon, Arya, and a dog having a four way, a raven appears on the stakes eating the dead after the burnings with Stannis, a Weirwood with a bloody face, and I have more documented. (I am following those kick-line ravens – still haven’t found Mormont’s raven from Jon’s last POV)

Then – when The Bravoosi Banker says, “. . . Beneath its walls [Winterfell] we found Mors Umber with a troop of raw green boys waiting for the king’s coming . . . .(826).

Well – are they “under the walls”? ie, in the crypts, which are described as under the wall of the collapsed keep? Could the “green boys” be ‘under the walls’ – as crannogman, meaning Howland Reed has gained access, through the underwater hot pools, mud, etc. I found lots of references to the gradual hardening of the mud in the godswood.

My silly idea is the Battle for Winterfell will be supernatural, and involve all those dead men with hoarfrost on their faces, the ones who died mysteriously, one even near the gargoyle where Brandon Stark had fallen – rendering him a cripple.

And – the Starks will rise, those missing a sword will take from another, causing a chain reaction.

If Howland arrives, perhaps he will have poor dead Ned with the wrong head – what a mess that will be.

Perhaps Winterfell is a tomb – no one escaped but Theon and Jeyne – the Starks and allies destroy Bolton and his Bastard.

BTW – Howland will be alive in the weirwood pool with his men – to give a thorough account of what did happen to whomever he chooses to tell in an already established POV.

OK – I tried to sum up my idea. Feel free to bash it. I like the volley of ideas – but please do not be mean.

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