Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[Associate Maester]

I don't think we're going to have a Battle of Winterfell. We're going to have the Battle on the Ice. I think we're going to see cunning and a Clever Plan for forces to sneak in and surprise Roose and troops there (or some Winterfell spirits getting lose and having some fun). Otherwise we'd be in for a drawn out siege and Martin isn't going to do that given how much he has to cover.

[sumant30]

I don't think we're going to have a Battle of Winterfell. We're going to have the Battle on the Ice. I think we're going to see cunning and a Clever Plan for forces to sneak in and surprise Roose and troops there (or some Winterfell spirits getting lose and having some fun). Otherwise we'd be in for a drawn out siege and Martin isn't going to do that given how much he has to cover.

I think it will be an end to stannis although people are saying he has some ace up his slew but i don't think he is going to be alive after TWOW.

[sumant30]

Awesome post. I have not read the gift chapters – I am still trying to connect things in the other books.

Don’t laugh – but I am tracing all these references to “old gods” and the “murder” of ravens. To cut to the chase, I am thinking along the lines of Aida – but not as romantic – the prince and slave girl entombed together because of their forbidden love? Roose and Ramsay and company seal their own fate “literally.”

Theon’s POV says, Old Nan told “of storms that raged for a year, ten years . . . storms that buried castles and cities and whole kingdoms under 100 feet of snow” (DWD 674).

Theon says, “Endless, ceaseless, merciless snow has fallen day and night” (605).

When Lady Barbrey says, “let winter do its worst” (607) Theon marvels at her folly since she is from the North and the old gods may be listening. WE know they are!

In the crypt, Theon recalls “Lord Beron Stark, who made common cause with Casterly Rock to war against Dagon Greyjoy, Lord of Pyke, in the days when the seven kingdoms were ruled in all but name by the bastard sorcerer men called Bloodraven” (546).

Before their descent, Dustin calls for “Beron, the light.” Supposedly her serjeant with the light is called Beron? Is that ironic? A coincidence? Does she need light and Beron to work her magic? Is she in the crypts to awaken the stone men? – and the connection with Bloodraven? – I am not sure. Is she an agent? Is she opening the crypts for the arrival of someone? Or to release something?

A raven army appears during the false wedding with a laughing weirwood, a raven quorks during Bolton, Theon, Arya, and a dog having a four way, a raven appears on the stakes eating the dead after the burnings with Stannis, a Weirwood with a bloody face, and I have more documented. (I am following those kick-line ravens – still haven’t found Mormont’s raven from Jon’s last POV)

Then – when The Bravoosi Banker says, “. . . Beneath its walls [Winterfell] we found Mors Umber with a troop of raw green boys waiting for the king’s coming . . . .(826).

Well – are they “under the walls”? ie, in the crypts, which are described as under the wall of the collapsed keep? Could the “green boys” be ‘under the walls’ – as crannogman, meaning Howland Reed has gained access, through the underwater hot pools, mud, etc. I found lots of references to the gradual hardening of the mud in the godswood.

My silly idea is the Battle for Winterfell will be supernatural, and involve all those dead men with hoarfrost on their faces, the ones who died mysteriously, one even near the gargoyle where Brandon Stark had fallen – rendering him a cripple.

And – the Starks will rise, those missing a sword will take from another, causing a chain reaction.

If Howland arrives, perhaps he will have poor dead Ned with the wrong head – what a mess that will be.

Perhaps Winterfell is a tomb – no one escaped but Theon and Jeyne – the Starks and allies destroy Bolton and his Bastard.

BTW – Howland will be alive in the weirwood pool with his men – to give a thorough account of what did happen to whomever he chooses to tell in an already established POV.

OK – I tried to sum up my idea. Feel free to bash it. I like the volley of ideas – but please do not be mean.

That seems to be a very easy victory for stannis and also if the starks do rise how will they recognize friend from a foe please don't say that bran can control them because that will be too much power and if he can control stone kings he can perhaps the frozen others too and then what is the need of dragons in the story/

[evita mgfs]

That seems to be a very easy victory for stannis and also if the starks do rise how will they recognize friend from a foe please don't say that bran can control them because that will be too much power and if he can control stone kings he can perhaps the frozen others too and then what is the need of dragons in the story/

I was merely offering analytical thought for discussion. I am like JS and "know nothing" - but I am a raven on the other hand and like to "talk" via posts. I just read the Theon gift chapter for WoW, so I know more than I did.

[Third World King]

Here are my thoughts:

- I believe that the letter labelled "BASTARD" is true. Ramsay does indeed have the fake king's (Stannis) shiny sword, and that most of Stannis's host has been defeated at the battle for Winterfell.

- I hold the position that Stannis is either dead or mortally wounded (probably the former), and is on his way back to the Wall with a few of his men (Theon and Asha included) who have escaped from the battle. Once at the wall, the red whore will resurrect Stannis (although in truth, Stannis is no longer truly alive but simply a creature of the red whore) and most present, crows, wildlings and some Northernmen will believe that Stannis is indeed this Azor Ahai reborn. After the "miracle", all men at the wall will rally under Stannis to fight the Bolton host making their way to the Wall to recover Ramsay's bride and Theon.

- I believe that Roose and the Freys will be betrayed by Manderly at Winterfell or on the way to the wall, after the latter is informed of Rickon's recovery, thus putting the remaining North under Stannis Baratheon- a blue eyed king who cast no shadow.

PS. I think the part about Stannis (given he is the blue eyed king in the prophecy) inability to cast a shadow could be in reference to his life-force. To be able to cast a shadow, you need to sacrifice a part of your life-force.

[Catacombs]

I hold the position that Stannis is either dead or mortally wounded...

I don't buy that. If there is a mummer's army in the battle of WF it would have to be force Bolton. They have been lucky so far, but that is very different than being smart. Team Bolton is the walking dead, it is just a matter of time before they notice that their throats have been slit...

[Zupoleon]

I don't buy that. If there is a mummer's army in the battle of WF it would have to be force Bolton. They have been lucky so far, but that is very different than being smart. Team Bolton is the walking dead, it is just a matter of time before they notice that their throats have been slit...

Agreed. The Bolton's have been on borrowed time for quite a while. Plus, given the fact that they only inspire loyalty through fear, most, if not all of their bannermen will jump ship the second they get an opportunity...

[ckal]

Victory for Stannis.

Wonder if some unknown and unexpected help will arrive for Stannis...

[Third World King]

I don't buy that. If there is a mummer's army in the battle of WF it would have to be force Bolton. They have been lucky so far, but that is very different than being smart. Team Bolton is the walking dead, it is just a matter of time before they notice that their throats have been slit...

Tywin lived on borrowed for over 20 years, so don't really see the issue of "living on borrowed time" as the reason the Boltons will die at Winterfell- they may even survive this war for all we know. I think the author might even make it a three or four way battle in the North (i.e Boltons vs the Others vs Stannis vs Starks). Who knows?

[The Halfhand]

1. Stannis and Manderlay combine to slaughter the Frey force.

2. Manderlay returns, with some of Stannis' men dressed as Freys, proclaiming victory (with Stannis' sword in hand, as proof).

3. Ramsay writes his letter to Jon Snow.

4. Later that night the gates are opened to allow the remainder of Stannis' men and the remaining Northmen inside to storm the castle while most of the Bolton men are asleep.

5. As all this is going on, many of the Northerners on the Bolton's side will switch allegiance.

I like this, but GRRM's teaser Theon chapter contradicts it. :crying:

[Faint]

I like this, but GRRM's teaser Theon chapter contradicts it. :crying:

In what way?

[The Sunset King]

Given that Roose Bolton in part based sending large forces from Winterfell to attack Stannis's position on the notion that Karstark's map would provide a perfect chance to stage a fatal strike, the Boltons are in for an atrocious surprise. None of them are aware that Stannis discovered the treachery, knows that a map of his location was sent to Winterfell, and is aware of an impending assault. This means that Stannis will likely have enough time to prepare and deploy his forces appropriately. Furthermore, his forces, although very low on supplies, have higher morale and actually are dedicated to their cause. By contrast, the portion of the Bolton army that is coming is led mostly by ineffective commanders (the only decent one, Manderly, is 100% disloyal to their cause) and is rife for defections/betrayals.

The mutual hatreds that Roose wanted to channel toward fighting Stannis and sacrifice so as to debilitate Stannis's host will outplay itself on the battlefield with the three components unable to coordinate or cooperate effectively. It would be extremely difficult for Ramsay to salvage this situation; he most likely won't and hence writes the infamous pink letter as an act of desperation.

As Stannis, notes, Roose has blundered by wasting his advantageous position through the throwing away of a good portion of his force on an attack predicated on factors that have been reversed to work in Stannis's favor. The Bolton numerical advantage is being vitiated in this attack and, consequently, this conflict will Winterfell much more vulnerable soon.

[Julian Rayne]

That's the problem. There are so many factors in Stannis's favor that I can't help but think he's going to lose.

[The Halfhand]

In what way?

"I know all about your vows. What I want to know is what was in the letter that you sent to Winterfell. Did you perchance tell Lord Bolton where to find us?"

-Theon chapter from WoW, Stannis speaking. There's a few other giveaways that make me fairly certain that Stannis and company are still outside of Winterfell.

[Faint]

"I know all about your vows. What I want to know is what was in the letter that you sent to Winterfell. Did you perchance tell Lord Bolton where to find us?"

-Theon chapter from WoW, Stannis speaking. There's a few other giveaways that make me fairly certain that Stannis and company are still outside of Winterfell.

I don't think you quite get my theory. I propose that the men led by Stannis, including the Karstarks now, combine with Manderly's men and slaughter the Freys. Afterwards, some of Stannis' men put on Frey clothing and pretend to be the Freys. Stannis, in effect, will be faking his death and defeat. The Manderly men and the false Freys will be returning to Ramsay and reporting that Stannis has been defeated and that he is dead. Perhaps they'll even make out that Stannis drowned in the lake, so there is no body to be found. In any case, they'll be returning with Stannis' sword as proof, and they'll also be reporting that Theon and 'Arya Stark' have been sent to the Wall. Ramsay will then take this information, in combination with what he has tortured out of one of the spearwives, to write and send the letter to Jon Snow.

[evita mgfs]

I don't think you quite get my theory. I propose that the men led by Stannis, including the Karstarks now, combine with Manderly's men and slaughter the Freys. Afterwards, some of Stannis' men put on Frey clothing and pretend to be the Freys. Stannis, in effect, will be faking his death and defeat. The Manderly men and the false Freys will be returning to Ramsay and reporting that Stannis has been defeated and that he is dead. Perhaps they'll even make out that Stannis drowned in the lake, so there is no body to be found. In any case, they'll be returning with Stannis' sword as proof, and they'll also be reporting that Theon and 'Arya Stark' have been sent to the Wall. Ramsay will then take this information, in combination with what he has tortured out of one of the spearwives, to write and send the letter to Jon Snow.

I just read the Theon gift chapter http://georgerrmartin.com/if-sample.html - and I believe

Stannis had the Karstarks executed for treason and Asha/Theon/Mormont/fAKE Arya - they have different fates. :drool:

[aryagonnakill]

Stannis sets his men on the island of the lake/ far side of the lake, freys charge, die, Manderlys form up. Blood curling howl of a direworlf, everyone stops. Davos, Osha, Rickon, Manderly/Manderlys heir parlay with Stannis. Manderly takes Stannis sword, some of Stannis' men dressed as Frey's and reports back to Winterfell. When the Frey lords arent there Roose and Ramsey fight about the meaning of everything. Ramsey kills Roose, as Roose himself predicted, sends the letter, and allows the Manderlys and fake Freys back into Winterfell which Roose didn't want to do. The plan is for the Manderlys/fake Freys to open the gates at the sound of the direwolf, but the late kings of the north beat them to the punch, Rickon is seated upon the High seat in the great hall and swords are returned to the crypts restoring order to Winterfell. Stannis sends Asha and Theon to Torrens Square to collect the rest of their ironmen and go back to the iron isles to redo the kingsmoot, after Euron has humiliated himself/ been killed by the Damphair. Stannis vows to start his war again in the spring but knows he must return to the wall to defend the realm. When Jon is established as the real AA he starts south again with the support of Rickon and the North, Sansa and the Vale, and the Blackfish/Edmure in the Riverlands.

[Tharvot]

I really like the idea of Manderly pulling off the trojan horse plot with part of Stannis' forces dressed in Frey clothing. That is something I had not considered before, but seems to be a shrewd maneuver. Ramsay, after getting word of a Bolton "victory," would indeed write the letter to Jon. It requires some clever timing on Martin's part to show Jon's POV getting the letter but not revealing what actually happened until later (even though the events had already come to pass).

Another thing to consider is that Stannis may have the backing of the Karstarks, thanks in large part to Jon Snow. Alys Karstark married a Thenn, and I would imagine that she would side and would gather the rest of those Karstarks loyal to her to Stannis' side. The rest of the Karstarks had been executed by Stannis before the battle.

So, in effect, the Boltons have a large part of the north against them and they may not even know it. All that remains is to root them out of Winterfell. In comes the letter and the word that Reek and "Arya" are at the Wall. The Bastard assembles a large portion of Bolton men to assault the Wall. This leaves Winterfell largely unmanned. The undercover Manderleys and "Freys" open the gates for Stannis & co. Winterfell is theirs, and for the most part so is the North. Ramsay is left out in the cold, on a death march up the Kingsroad. He can be flanked by Alys' Karstark forces, auxiliary Baratheon forces, and Wildling forces led by Thormund Giantsbane. Check and mate.

The wildcard: The Others...they could show up and really throw a wrench into things.

[Gray Ghost]

That also means that I think Ramsays letter to Jon Snow is BS.

If Ramsey's letter was true, why would he have said that he wants his bride back? I think everything that he put into the letter was probably something that he (Ramsey) could have lied about, based on the spear wives being killed, etc. But he makes no mention of Theon (Reek), etc..

[Gobiel]

I think that Stannis used the birds of Karstark to say that he was "defeated", but that the bride and Theon had been sent out to Jon. He probably lied about their heads on the walls of Winterfell and about the magic sword that he has in his possession --> he tells all that from the false report he got.

After having put the Manderlys to his side and kiled the Freys, he will be able to somewhat take their clothes and prepare an attack from the inside of Winterfell.

The only "problem" is that we don't know the exact day in which he got the letter, thus we can't know for a certainty about the seven days fight in a place three days ride from Winterfell.