Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[Lord Gautham Girishankar]

How can ramsey kill rosse when he is surrounded by rooose's men also i don't think roose also trusts ramsey and knows what kind of person he is.

hmm..thats true...but I guess Ramsey may cost the Boltons in the end..Roose is cunning and smart..but so is Ramsey..he knew Theon was the key to capture Moat Cailin and the whole acting as Reek..

[sumant30]

hmm..thats true...but I guess Ramsey may cost the Boltons in the end..Roose is cunning and smart..but so is Ramsey..he knew Theon was the key to capture Moat Cailin and the whole acting as Reek..

Actually the thing is people are counting out roose and ramsey from the start giving all crackpot theories like theon will stannis secret way into WF to manderly army doing a trojan horse after the battle but still i think i would love to see roose being outplayed in his own game.

[aryagonnakill]

Actually the thing is people are counting out roose and ramsey from the start giving all crackpot theories like theon will stannis secret way into WF to manderly army doing a trojan horse after the battle but still i think i would love to see roose being outplayed in his own game.

Interesting, perhaps Lady Dustin betraying Roose since he thinks her his truest ally would fit this?

[sumant30]

Interesting, perhaps Lady Dustin betraying Roose since he thinks her his truest ally would fit this?

The thing with roose is he does not trust anyone that is why it is so much hard to decieve him.

[bemused]

sumant30 ..It's fairly nonsensical to say that if there was a passage through the crypts Bran and Rickon would know about it.

In our own history, it was pretty common for a secret passage to exist for the use of the lord / family should the castle be about to fall. The operative word is "secret". Children would not know about it , unless they had to be taken out through it by someone senior enough to know. We know they didn't know , nor did maester Luwin , or he would have got them out using it when Theon took WF. I think the only one likely to know ,after all the Stark deaths, without searching back through weirwood memories , would be Benjen, who probably held WF, while Ned was away at war. If Bran has since found out , I don't think he would necessarily pass the information to Theon or Stannis.

I think Roose is definitely being out-played by Barbrey Dustin , who is the one person he doesn't suspect. Roose's game has always been deception, and I suspect he is being decieved.

Ramsay will go after "Arya" , because she legitimizes their claim in the eyes of the North.This is important in Roose's eyes and the Lannisters' ..whose original plan was to secure WF through Tyrion's marriage to Sansa.

Ramsay will have taken some Bolton men with him ( he would need men known to be loyal to try to recapture "Arya" ) , so Roose's force will be depleted somewhat. The other Northmen will turn against him when it comes down to it.

Lady Dustin didn't make sure the inside entrance to the crypts was cleared for nothing.It's entirely plausible to me that Benjen could then let in a fresh force of Manderly's reserves from WH. Roose could be outnumbered in no time. But he could escape in the confusion..we know he uses a double.

I think it's probably Benjen because he would be most effective. As a very accomplished ranger , he would be able to travel back without being discovered. He would be known to the clansmen and to any of the Northern lords ( and Lady Barbrey ) who've known him from youth and also know his reputation as First Ranger.

If the CoTF and Bloodraven could convince Bran to come North, they could convince Benjen to go the other way. If, as is widely believed, WF will be an important stronghold in the struggle against the Others , and if there is a good reason for the saying "There must always be a Stark in WF" ... and since WF itself was badly damaged by Ramsay, a mature ,capable Stark would be needed to try to put things to rights.

Jon has come a long way in proving himself at the wall..but he was pretty much an unknown quantity to the Northern Lords when he left at 14 . We see the Flint and Norrey arriving at the wall to size him up, and we see him begin to win them over ( but actually the way things are working out, they could know far more than he does about what's going on around WF , and how many of his family survive ) The fact is ,no matter what people may come to think of Jon later on , Benjen could much more easily coalesce the Northern Conspiracy to take back WF and to hold it for whatever heir finally takes the seat.

Maybe,if it is Benjen , we might see him and Jon switch positions at some point. And no , I don't see this as desertion in Benjen , just the equivalent of a long ranging.. especially if WF turns out to be as important to the Wall, as the Wall is to WF.

[sumant30]

sumant30 ..It's fairly nonsensical to say that if there was a passage through the crypts Bran and Rickon would know about it.

In our own history, it was pretty common for a secret passage to exist for the use of the lord / family should the castle be about to fall. The operative word is "secret". Children would not know about it , unless they had to be taken out through it by someone senior enough to know. We know they didn't know , nor did maester Luwin , or he would have got them out using it when Theon took WF. I think the only one likely to know ,after all the Stark deaths, without searching back through weirwood memories , would be Benjen, who probably held WF, while Ned was away at war. If Bran has since found out , I don't think he would necessarily pass the information to Theon or Stannis.

I think Roose is definitely being out-played by Barbrey Dustin , who is the one person he doesn't suspect. Roose's game has always been deception, and I suspect he is being decieved.

Ramsay will go after "Arya" , because she legitimizes their claim in the eyes of the North.This is important in Roose's eyes and the Lannisters' ..whose original plan was to secure WF through Tyrion's marriage to Sansa.

Ramsay will have taken some Bolton men with him ( he would need men known to be loyal to try to recapture "Arya" ) , so Roose's force will be depleted somewhat. The other Northmen will turn against him when it comes down to it.

Lady Dustin didn't make sure the inside entrance to the crypts was cleared for nothing.It's entirely plausible to me that Benjen could then let in a fresh force of Manderly's reserves from WH. Roose could be outnumbered in no time. But he could escape in the confusion..we know he uses a double.

I think it's probably Benjen because he would be most effective. As a very accomplished ranger , he would be able to travel back without being discovered. He would be known to the clansmen and to any of the Northern lords ( and Lady Barbrey ) who've known him from youth and also know his reputation as First Ranger.

If the CoTF and Bloodraven could convince Bran to come North, they could convince Benjen to go the other way. If, as is widely believed, WF will be an important stronghold in the struggle against the Others , and if there is a good reason for the saying "There must always be a Stark in WF" ... and since WF itself was badly damaged by Ramsay, a mature ,capable Stark would be needed to try to put things to rights.

Jon has come a long way in proving himself at the wall..but he was pretty much an unknown quantity to the Northern Lords when he left at 14 . We see the Flint and Norrey arriving at the wall to size him up, and we see him begin to win them over ( but actually the way things are working out, they could know far more than he does about what's going on around WF , and how many of his family survive ) The fact is ,no matter what people may come to think of Jon later on , Benjen could much more easily coalesce the Northern Conspiracy to take back WF and to hold it for whatever heir finally takes the seat.

Maybe,if it is Benjen , we might see him and Jon switch positions at some point. And no , I don't see this as desertion in Benjen , just the equivalent of a long ranging.. especially if WF turns out to be as important to the Wall, as the Wall is to WF.

The only big hole in your theory is benjen who has his whereabouts unknown since the last 4 books, for him to appear suddenly out of no where and save WF i don't think martin would pull such thing off and lady dustin going into crypts it could be no of reasons.also if there was a secret passage i don't think ned mistrusted maester luwin that he didn't even tell him.

[Catacombs]

I think the only one likely to know ,after all the Stark deaths, without searching back through weirwood memories , would be Benjen...

If the CoTF and Bloodraven could convince Bran to come North, they could convince Benjen to go the other way. If, as is widely believed, WF will be an important stronghold in the struggle against the Others , and if there is a good reason for the saying "There must always be a Stark in WF" ... and since WF itself was badly damaged by Ramsay, a mature ,capable Stark would be needed to try to put things to rights...

I don't see this as desertion in Benjen , just the equivalent of a long ranging.. especially if WF turns out to be as important to the Wall, as the Wall is to WF.

This strikes as as a solid theory for the whereabouts of Benjen. I could see him finding his way to BR's cave with the help of CH and the CotF. I think BR would inform him about events in the South, the sacking of Winterfell, Bran's departure and the need for him to be the Stark there.

I've thought for a while that there is a series of underground passages that the CotF have used for centuries. I would not be a surprise if Grone's Way extended way beyond the Wall (from Bloodraven to the crypts of Winterfall and beyond). This would be an old hidden passage safe from The Others (but Gendel's children may still be there).

A rescue by CH, BR and the CotF and then exploring these tunnels and making his way back to Winterfell would explain why nobody has seen or heard from Benjen for a while. That would be an epic ranging worthy of the First Ranger. Perhaps he was the Hooded man.

Benjen, like Howland Reed has a role to play in the coming books. It will be fun to see how it all turns out.

[bemused]

sumant30.. Yeah , Benjen's whereabouts have been unknown , but his name has been kept alive in every book , with some character or other still feeling he must be alive somewhere , or some other reference or hint. GRRM has said his fate will be revealed..If it was just to die North of the wall , why continue to keep it hidden all this time ?

If/when he does appear we'll have an accounting of where he's been ,who he met and what he learned,so it won't seem to be out of nowhere.

But I think you're right in that it's equally possible that the last number of generations of Starks might have forgotten about the existence of the passage. If it has had to be revealed through BR and the CoTF , it would be better to be revealed to Benjen ,who could physically do something about it , than to have Bran try to pass on the information through a raven or weirwood.

ETA: ..I think Luwin was trusted by Ned, but either the secret had been forgotten , or it was not customary to tell the maester as it was passed from generation to generation, because only a Stark can open it, find it etc. or because not every generation might have a thoroughly trustworthy maester.

catacombs.. Benjen is my favourite suspect as the hooded man for these very reasons. I think more about the caves and tunnels used by the CoTF will be revealed sometime, and I'm looking forward to whatever hints are given in the Arianne chapter , as well . Benjen could also have passed through the gate under the Nightfort.

[Rains]

I think we have to look at this with the narrative in mind. What is best for the narrative? GRRM has balls of steel when it comes to killing characters, that's a fact everybody within the fantasy genre knows. But killing of characters for the lolz is one thing, and killing them as a plot device in another (a la, Ned's Death causing Robb's rebellion, in turn, his death removing the rebellion in order to expand on other characters etc...)

Stannis is a very important character, up there with Dany and Jon. Thus I have a feeling that he *will* win due to dat plot armour. Now, Jon's own "death" is ambigious, we can't really say much about it, much like Brienne's own "death" within FFC and the way I bet a lot of you thought Dany was crazy in AGOT when she decided to burn herself.

So how will Stannis win exactly? From what I can remember, GRRM has already laid out the idea of an ice lake. Many of you have pointed that out already, but we must consider the other elements as well.

Fog/Snow Storm. The visibility factor makes it easy to hide troops. Since Stannis is at the defensive side, he will have to use that to his advantage. Both Freys and Manderly's men are convinced that Stannis is left with nothing but a starving army, incabable of fighting, along with the Karstark treachery that was planned, now foiled, they will get an unexpected welcome. Over-confidence is the doom of a lot of fights.

Mountain Clans: Freys are Rivermen and the Manderlys are as South as North can get. The Mountain Clans men will be a bitch to fight. They know the terrain and can move easily on them, getting tired less and boosting the morale of Stannis' men when they see these guys are kicking ass.

Manderly's loyalty: We know nothing of their intentions, but I don't really see a reason why Manderly and Frey should turn on eachother NOW. Unless the fatman has said something, I don't think the slightly less fatman will do anything about it. Hopefully they will attack the Freys, or at the very least, refuse to fight.

Aftermath:

If Stannis wins he will be left with about three thousand men. All tired and hungry. He will not claim Winterfell through a siege or storming the walls. He'll need to Trojan them, or do something very sneaky.

Deep Snow: I'm no horse expert, but my guessing is that a heavy cavalary charge within a snow storm (little visibility) in the woods and in rough terrain will serve to no good. Sure they are intimidating, but I'm guessing half won't go as fast and more than a few will fall. They have the high ground, Stannis doesn't. A good cavalry charge would serve for an awesome flank manuever but sadly that option is in their bellies.

[aryagonnakill]

I'd like to post a theory I think is original, but it's kind of an alteration to an existing theory. Many have speculated that the lords in the crypts who have no swords will pull some magical ass kickery. But a post on the Theon gift chapter inspired me. GRRM took the time to describe the gargoyles of winterfell in a good amount of detail. The only other place we have seen gargoyles in the story is Dragonstone, another city besides Winterfell which has been associated with magic. My theory is simply that instead of ghosts or statues of kings/lords that the gargoyles will come to life and raise some serious hell. It's just a possibility.

[sumant30]

sumant30.. Yeah , Benjen's whereabouts have been unknown , but his name has been kept alive in every book , with some character or other still feeling he must be alive somewhere , or some other reference or hint. GRRM has said his fate will be revealed..If it was just to die North of the wall , why continue to keep it hidden all this time ?

If/when he does appear we'll have an accounting of where he's been ,who he met and what he learned,so it won't seem to be out of nowhere.

But I think you're right in that it's equally possible that the last number of generations of Starks might have forgotten about the existence of the passage. If it has had to be revealed through BR and the CoTF , it would be better to be revealed to Benjen ,who could physically do something about it , than to have Bran try to pass on the information through a raven or weirwood.

ETA: ..I think Luwin was trusted by Ned, but either the secret had been forgotten , or it was not customary to tell the maester as it was passed from generation to generation, because only a Stark can open it, find it etc. or because not every generation might have a thoroughly trustworthy maester.

catacombs.. Benjen is my favourite suspect as the hooded man for these very reasons. I think more about the caves and tunnels used by the CoTF will be revealed sometime, and I'm looking forward to whatever hints are given in the Arianne chapter , as well . Benjen could also have passed through the gate under the Nightfort.

If benjen is hooded man then who is coldhands i think there is a very strong possibility that cold hands is benjen.

[sumant30]

I think we have to look at this with the narrative in mind. What is best for the narrative? GRRM has balls of steel when it comes to killing characters, that's a fact everybody within the fantasy genre knows. But killing of characters for the lolz is one thing, and killing them as a plot device in another (a la, Ned's Death causing Robb's rebellion, in turn, his death removing the rebellion in order to expand on other characters etc...)

Stannis is a very important character, up there with Dany and Jon. Thus I have a feeling that he *will* win due to dat plot armour. Now, Jon's own "death" is ambigious, we can't really say much about it, much like Brienne's own "death" within FFC and the way I bet a lot of you thought Dany was crazy in AGOT when she decided to burn herself.

So how will Stannis win exactly? From what I can remember, GRRM has already laid out the idea of an ice lake. Many of you have pointed that out already, but we must consider the other elements as well.

Fog/Snow Storm. The visibility factor makes it easy to hide troops. Since Stannis is at the defensive side, he will have to use that to his advantage. Both Freys and Manderly's men are convinced that Stannis is left with nothing but a starving army, incabable of fighting, along with the Karstark treachery that was planned, now foiled, they will get an unexpected welcome. Over-confidence is the doom of a lot of fights.

Mountain Clans: Freys are Rivermen and the Manderlys are as South as North can get. The Mountain Clans men will be a bitch to fight. They know the terrain and can move easily on them, getting tired less and boosting the morale of Stannis' men when they see these guys are kicking ass.

Manderly's loyalty: We know nothing of their intentions, but I don't really see a reason why Manderly and Frey should turn on eachother NOW. Unless the fatman has said something, I don't think the slightly less fatman will do anything about it. Hopefully they will attack the Freys, or at the very least, refuse to fight.

Aftermath:

If Stannis wins he will be left with about three thousand men. All tired and hungry. He will not claim Winterfell through a siege or storming the walls. He'll need to Trojan them, or do something very sneaky.

Deep Snow: I'm no horse expert, but my guessing is that a heavy cavalary charge within a snow storm (little visibility) in the woods and in rough terrain will serve to no good. Sure they are intimidating, but I'm guessing half won't go as fast and more than a few will fall. They have the high ground, Stannis doesn't. A good cavalry charge would serve for an awesome flank manuever but sadly that option is in their bellies.

I think stannis loses and allies himself with others and that way danny's vision in the house of undying comes true.

[Rains]

The prophecies are not-so-clear really. We can't put speculations infront of facts. The only thing about that is the "no shadow." Now, we know that in complete darkness there are no shadows, but Stannis is wielding Lightbringer... or the farce that is this supposed legendary sword. Inevitabley, the light *should* cast a shadow, unless there are light sources all about him. Blue eyes doesn't mean he will become a wight or an Other, yet the eyes are given emphesis, ergo, the speculation I suppose. There is no mention that Other's don't cast shadows no?

I'm a big Stannis fan, and I'd really like him to stfu and join with Dany so he can live in Storms-End like he's always wanted to. But that's another author in another dimension.*sigh*

[bemused]

sumant30..I used to think Coldhands was Benjen , but when Leaf tells Bran CH died long ago and also tells him how much longer the CoTF live than men , then to her it would only be a short time since Benjen went missing.

I don't think she was talking down to Bran ( putting it in terms a child would understand ), she doesn't do so on other occasions. And I don't think she's lying. So I think it's impossible that Benjen could be CH , after all.

[The Sunset King]

The prophecies are not-so-clear really. We can't put speculations infront of facts. The only thing about that is the "no shadow." Now, we know that in complete darkness there are no shadows, but Stannis is wielding Lightbringer... or the farce that is this supposed legendary sword. Inevitabley, the light *should* cast a shadow, unless there are light sources all about him. Blue eyes doesn't mean he will become a wight or an Other, yet the eyes are given emphesis, ergo, the speculation I suppose. There is no mention that Other's don't cast shadows no?

I'm a big Stannis fan, and I'd really like him to stfu and join with Dany so he can live in Storms-End like he's always wanted to. But that's another author in another dimension.*sigh*

I might have to check again, but I seem to recall that the Others do cast shadows or that characters have mentioned seeing them (might have been in a Bran chapter with Coldhands or the Varamyr prologue?). Either that or the Others were being metaphorically described as shadows. Neverthless, given that a lot of the books' visions just outright happen directly as seen, it seems perhaps more likely than not that the king in question literally is not casting a shadow (not only symbolism), either due to some physical/magical abnormality or perhaps due to something strange and significant plot-wise with the lightning in the vicinity. It would indeed be interesting to know whether his sword is casting a shadow somewhere on the ground in that scene. That would give some clues as to what range of weirdness is being conveyed there.

Perhaps the Others are different from the legends about vampires and undead where sometimes this beings either have no reflection or no shadow.

[Rains]

I might have to check again, but I seem to recall that the Others do cast shadows or that characters have mentioned seeing them (might have been in a Bran chapter with Coldhands or the Varamyr prologue?). Either that or the Others were being metaphorically described as shadows. Neverthless, given that a lot of the books' visions just outright happen directly as seen, it seems perhaps more likely than not that the king in question literally is not casting a shadow (not only symbolism), either due to some physical/magical abnormality or perhaps due to something strange and significant plot-wise with the lightning in the vicinity. It would indeed be interesting to know whether his sword is casting a shadow somewhere on the ground in that scene. That would give some clues as to what range of weirdness is being conveyed there.

Perhaps the Others are different from the legends about vampires and undead where sometimes this beings either have no reflection or no shadow.

Hopefully someone here can refer to earlier scenes with the Others. If they *don't* cast shadows, then that's a clear sign that Stannis will try something with them.

[sumant30]

sumant30..I used to think Coldhands was Benjen , but when Leaf tells Bran CH died long ago and also tells him how much longer the CoTF live than men , then to her it would only be a short time since Benjen went missing.

I don't think she was talking down to Bran ( putting it in terms a child would understand ), she doesn't do so on other occasions. And I don't think she's lying. So I think it's impossible that Benjen could be CH , after all.

If we consider the time period from GOT to Dance then i think it is a long time, so theory can't be completely discarded also benjen i don't think is in WF because the daggers of dragon glass found by ghost and jon on fist so benjen has to do something with others or is doing something related to them and after all remember that benjen is a stark so there is no way he is going to break his vows because that is breaking of his vows of what you are suggesting and starks are pretty prickly regarding their honor so i don't think he will break them.

[aryagonnakill]

If we consider the time period from GOT to Dance then i think it is a long time, so theory can't be completely discarded also benjen i don't think is in WF because the daggers of dragon glass found by ghost and jon on fist so benjen has to do something with others or is doing something related to them and after all remember that benjen is a stark so there is no way he is going to break his vows because that is breaking of his vows of what you are suggesting and starks are pretty prickly regarding their honor so i don't think he will break them.

Ya I always thought we would find out Benjen left those, we haven't been introduced to any other candidate for that, plus I'm pretty sure Jon noticed that the cloak wasn't that old. I also think there is a good chance Benjen is Coldhands, I know the whole died a long time ago thing, but I kind of took that as a statement just meaning that he was already dead and wasn't in any danger. I think it works that Coldhands is Benjen because if Bloodraven go's into the Weirwood network permanently and all the way he may tell Bran who he is, or Bran will simply take control of him/ take over whatever relationship Bloodraven has with him and will then be able to learn everything he knows and everything that happened to him.

[sumant30]

Ya I always thought we would find out Benjen left those, we haven't been introduced to any other candidate for that, plus I'm pretty sure Jon noticed that the cloak wasn't that old. I also think there is a good chance Benjen is Coldhands, I know the whole died a long time ago thing, but I kind of took that as a statement just meaning that he was already dead and wasn't in any danger. I think it works that Coldhands is Benjen because if Bloodraven go's into the Weirwood network permanently and all the way he may tell Bran who he is, or Bran will simply take control of him/ take over whatever relationship Bloodraven has with him and will then be able to learn everything he knows and everything that happened to him.

Finally someone agrees with me :D

[bemused]

Long ago ?..:D..( sorry to have to disagree .. I liked one of your posts on another thread... ;))

No , I don't think it can be more than 3yrs. or so since Benjen went missing. (At the very maximum, four ) Arya was 8 when she left WF..Jon was 14..somewhere, more recently ( when he receives the engagement letter ?) I believe Jon thinks Arya would be about 11 or so ( maybe 12 at most ). When Jon meets Alys Karstark , she looks to be too old to be Arya.. She says she was 16 on her last nameday...Jon thinks she's ...almost of an age with him.. again , allowing the most time possible to have elapsed , that would make Jon 18 ( or maybe as young as 17). But even if we take the oldest estimate for Jon , four years would not be "long ago" to the CoTF. ( I think it's more like 3 yrs, but I don't mind calling it 4 for the sake of argument.)

I do kind of want to tear my hair out when people say, Benjen wouldn't break his oath to the NW , though. Are we to think that Benjen is less intelligent than Jon ? If Jon can see that outworn convention has to be cast aside, and it's the spirit of the core tenets of the oath that count, I'm sure Benjen could as well...and wherever he is , why should we assume that his intention is not to return to the watch ? Why should we assume he has deserted ? Perhaps , on his ranging , one thing has led to another and he still has something important to do first.

Though I can see possibilities for the HM to be some other Northman, I think Benjen would best bring together the various hints and suggestions strewn throughout the novels . Winterfell and the Wall both built by Bran the builder..magic being used in the raising of the Wall ..Must always be a Stark in WF ..secret passages..Starks having a special relationship to the Wall , and being looked to for leadership by the Northerners .

So , Benjen left on his ranging to learn what was going on north of the wall and if the Others had really returned. We know the CoTF and BR have been guiding Bran. We know they have CH at their disposal, to aid people they see as important in the struggle against the Others. Why not Benjen ? If they see two Starks as key to their efforts , why not a third ?

Of course, GRRM may have another path entirely in mind for Benjen, but if he does place him in WF, there will be good reason for it, and I'd bet without tarnishing Benjen too much..

If he's been briefed by BR and the CoTF and returned to WF by way of the gate under the Nightfort, he could still have left the obsidian and horn at the Fist. If he travelled by some other route ( CoTF tunnels), CH could easily have left them.