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Bravely Done

Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)

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Good post. I just wonder what the whole point of Aegon being a Blackfyre would be if he has not only been raised as a Targaryen, but is been proclaimed as a Targaryen. Theoretically, Targaryen supporters wouldn't rise for him if they knew he was a pretender, and assuming he manages to claim the Iron Throne, believing that he is a Targaryen, would Varys or Illyrio break the news to him? More importantly, would he believe them if they did, and what difference would it make if at that point he'd already conquered Westeros as a Targaryen? It seems that Varys and Illyrio would have to be content knowing that they set a Blackfyre on the throne, who doesn't know he's a Blackfyre, and goes by a different name. Seems a lot of effort to go to for such a small reward.

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Bravely said Bravely done!! Excellent post, more so for your first ever one. Very well thought out. I believe the wuote about the male Blackfyres dying out is why many people think Aegon is a Blackfyre. They believe Serra, Illyrios wife is a Blackfyre and so there son is now also one. So it died out but is now back but with mixed blood.

I hope Aegons a real Targ. Either way it doesnt matter because his claim is as good as anys at this point. Your right though i cant see any reason for Varys to lie to Kevan, especially when hes dying. It doesnt make sense for him to continue on the falsehood here.

Im a believer that Jaime and Cersei are Targs and i never thought Tyrion would be a dragon rider. Id put Victarion,Jaime,Arya and Bran as more likely candidates then Tyrion but i would agree with your list

I believe there is a compelling counter arguement somewhere to do with a sign in an inn in the riverlands which seems to signify Aegosn a Blackfyre so you may wanna look that up.

In any case i always thought the mummers dragon was going to be Aurane Waters. He looks like a Targ but isnt and now commands a fleet after running away from Cersei and KL

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Could there have been two baby switches? Maybe Illyrio played Varys.

Varys switches Aegon with a pretender and gives Aegon to Illyrio in Pentos.

Illyrio switches Aegon with his Blackfyre son and throws Aegon into the ocean. The Blackfyre son grows up believing himself to be Aegon.

Bam. Problem solved. :)

(no, I don't actually believe this but would laugh and laugh and laugh if it caught on)

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2. In order to harbor the belief that Aegon is false, you must also believe Quathe's prophecies to be true, and they've already proven faulty.

That's not true at all, all the evidence that shows he is a Blackfyre is completely unrelated to Quaithe.

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Bravely said Bravely done!! Excellent post, more so for your first ever one. Very well thought out. I believe the wuote about the male Blackfyres dying out is why many people think Aegon is a Blackfyre. They believe Serra, Illyrios wife is a Blackfyre and so there son is now also one. So it died out but is now back but with mixed blood.

I hope Aegons a real Targ. Either way it doesnt matter because his claim is as good as anys at this point. Your right though i cant see any reason for Varys to lie to Kevan, especially when hes dying. It doesnt make sense for him to continue on the falsehood here.

Im a believer that Jaime and Cersei are Targs and i never thought Tyrion would be a dragon rider. Id put Victarion,Jaime,Arya and Bran as more likely candidates then Tyrion but i would agree with your list

I believe there is a compelling counter arguement somewhere to do with a sign in an inn in the riverlands which seems to signify Aegosn a Blackfyre so you may wanna look that up.

In any case i always thought the mummers dragon was going to be Aurane Waters. He looks like a Targ but isnt and now commands a fleet after running away from Cersei and KL

Why do you believe Cersie and Jamie are Targaryens?

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Tyrion: "How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?"

Illirio: "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, is was the end of the male line of house Blackfyre. And Daeneyrs will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home."

Crap. I forgot that Illyrio basically explained here the reason why the Golden Company would support a red dragon. I had thought the dragon sign story Brienne hears on the QI as the strongest evidence for Aegon being a Blackfyre, but it could refer to the Golden Company, not Aegon.

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That's not true at all, all the evidence that shows he is a Blackfyre is completely unrelated to Quaithe.

Actually, no evidence suggest that. Though if you care to post your theory, I'd love to read whatever you have to say.

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Why do you believe Cersie and Jamie are Targaryens?

There's a suggestion somewhere that Aerys took "The Lord's right" or whatever it was called with Tywin's wife. Basically where the King is allowed to sleep with the wife of his vassals on the wedding night.

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Actually, on rethinking it, there were no less than four baby switches:

1. Varys switches Aegon with a pretender. Gives Aegon to Illyrio.

2. Illyrio switches Aegon with "Aegon". Throws Aegon into the sea.

Aegon floats to Westeros (why not?), where he is found by Wylla, who is nursing Jon and Ashara Dayne's child. Aegon is dying, of course.

3. Wylla accidentally switches Aegon and Ashara Dayne's child. Aegon dies and Ashara kills herself in misplaced grief.

4. Wylla switches Ashara Dayne's child with Jon to hide her mistake. Ned takes Ashara Dayne's child back to Winterfell.

The real Jon is shipped off to a lesser branch of Dayne to be fostered. He is renamed Gerold.

Dun dun dun.

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There's a suggestion somewhere that Aerys took "The Lord's right" or whatever it was called with Tywin's wife. Basically where the King is allowed to sleep with the wife of his vassals on the wedding night.

First right, and Aeyrs didn't have it. Believe that was outlawed with Maegor the Cruel, though Aeyrs was very fond of Joanna, and commented that he wished first right were still present during Tywins wedding.

I don't think the plot advances with Cersie and Jamie being Targs. In fact, I believe it far more likely that the both of them die by the end of the series.

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Very well said but the foreshadowing of the rusty sign seems like very strong "evidence". True, when you put all the arguments against the Blackfyre theory together like that, it seems pretty unlikely. However there have been three separate instances of prophecies/foreshadowing that I can remember and this makes it very unlikely that it was just a red herring. In case you have not noticed most prophecies and foreshadowing have come true and the ones that haven't just haven't happened yet.

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First right, and Aeyrs didn't have it. Believe that was outlawed with Maegor the Cruel, though Aeyrs was very fond of Joanna, and commented that he wished first right were still present during Tywins wedding.

I don't think the plot advances with Cersie and Jamie being Targs. In fact, I believe it far more likely that the both of them die by the end of the series.

That's the one. It was a theory on here at some point I think that he went ahead and took it anyway :P I think part of it is that Cersei and Jaime show Targaryen traits. An incestuous relationship, not genetic of course, but it's there as a reflection, Cersei showing signs of madness that emulate Aerys, other things along this line. Not sure I buy it, but yeah, I'd agree that at least one of them is bound to die.

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The core reasons people source for doubting the legitimacy of the newly revealed Aegon are Dany's visions while in the house of undying of the cloth Dragon, Quathe's prophecies of mummer's Dragons, wether or not the switch were possible, and the motivations, whatever they are, of Varys and Illyrio Mopatis.

1. For starters, I can’t seem to gather why people hesitate to believe Varys is a Targaryen loyalist?...

2. In order to harbor the belief that Aegon is false, you must also believe Quathe's prophecies to be true, and they've already proven faulty...

3. I’m not quite sure how people can question whether or not the switch were possible? ...

4. Prior to reaching the room of the Undying Ones, Danny traveled down a hall and looked behind doors that opened up to visions of things past and soon to come. They weren’t cryptic nor where they presented as riddles, they were simply visions. People typically speak of the vision of the mummers dragon when talking of the House of Undying, but one vision, the 5th, is oft ignored when it comes to discussions of whether or not Aegon is truly Rhaegar's son. But I believe it's telling, and in my opinion, supports Aegon's legitimacy...

1. It's stretches credulity to believe that Varys and Illyrio are targaryen loyalists when you look at their treatment of Viserys and Daenerys.

2. Don't see that Quaithe's warnings are faulty. They are only warnings after all. All of those people have agendas whihc make or make not conflict with Daenerys' interests. Don't forget that Varys was a Mummer. He spent time with a troop of mummers before he was cut. He still uses the skills of disguise that he learnt from the mummers.

3. It's clearly not impossible for a baby switch to take place but it's a dodgy story and again stretches credulity to imagine that word didn't get out or that time wise it would work out.

4. That Rhaegar believed that his son Aegon was the prince who was promised doesn't mean either than he was the prince who was promised or that Connington's Aegon is the same person.

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Why do you believe Cersie and Jamie are Targaryens?

Aerys was in love with Tywins wife according to Barristan in Dance. He even speaks of rumours that Aerys took certain liberties. This explains the division between Tywin and Aerys better then Aerys was jealous of Tywin coz hes class at ruling the Kingdoms. It also better explains Tywins subsequent betrayal of Aerys and the sacking of KL

Many people think Tyrions Aerys son or even Aegon himself but i dont buy it. Tyrion and Tywin are alike in many ways and Aunt Genna tells Jaime himself that Tyrion was Tywins true son.

Jaime and Cersei practice incest-a Targ trait. Jaimes a great warrior and is becoming a good strategist. The Targs have many famous warriors but i havnt heard of any Lannisters other then JAime himself. Cersei is paranoid and going a bit batshit insane. She also has a weird appraciation for wildfire and loves the flames from the burning of the hands tower.

Its also got a nice irony and ring to it that Jaime as well as being a Kingslayer is a Kinslayer and true Targs have been on the throne in Joffrey and Tommen.

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Wow, lots. I'll just try and hit a few or the main points.

The core reasons people source for doubting the legitimacy of the newly revealed Aegon are Dany's visions while in the house of undying of the cloth Dragon, Quathe's prophecies of mummer's Dragons, wether or not the switch were possible, and the motivations, whatever they are, of Varys and Illyrio Mopatis.

1. For starters, I can’t seem to gather why people hesitate to believe Varys is a Targaryen loyalist? On page 636 of a GOT, while sitting in his cell beneath the red keep, ...

Was it not he that urged Mad King Aerys to keep his gates closed to Tywin and The Lannisters? Did he not warn Jorah of the assassination attempts on Danny’s life? Did he and Illiro not arrange for Danny to marry the horselord, whom was convinced to cross the sea and conquer westeros before he died? He and Illirio have served all remaining Targaryen's; Aegon, Viserys, and Daenerys, and in some fashion, they've aided each of them. Illirio housed, protected, and served all three of them at one point; and is responsible for gifting Dany the dragon eggs she'll one day rule Westeros with. They saw to the education and tutelage of young Aegon through his fathers best friend, and even Viserys was offered board in Pentos with Illiro while Danny traveled with her Khal. They've given the Dragons gold, armies, ships, protection, and even eggs. They've even killed their enemies...

Varys and Illyrio have undoubtedly protected, sheltered and educated Aegon from a young age. But as it is his identity in question that is proof only that they are invested in their pawn in the game, not that they are supportive of Targaryens.

The undisputed Targaryens spent years without a sponsor in the Free Cities; that's why Viserys was called the beggar king. Illyrio gave them only a year of support before Dany's marriage when he is shown to have the resources to have been providing for them all along. The support he did give them is also consistent with him using them as a pawn; - the marriage to Drogo could have been intended to get the Dothraki to invade Westeros and cause disruption to Robert's (at that point) stable reign - allowing Aegon to appear later and in a better light by contrast.

I don't support the Blackfyre and GC theories so I'll give that a pass.

And the most damning evidence of all? Well, there's two things. Varys epilogue, and Tyrion's having guessed that young Griff was Aegon.

Kevan: "Aegon? Dead. He's dead".

Varys: "No. He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained at arms, poetry. A septa has instructed him in the faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, and that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

No, I'm not convinced he was lying to a dead man. He had no logical reason to do so given the situation, and I'm hardly of the belief that the "Aegon" he's referring to is anybody but the Aegon he carried out his cradle 16 years earlier.(what motivations would he have for deceiving a dead man? Makes no sense)

And...

Tyrion: "The blue hair makes your eyes seem blue... I must admit, you have noble features for a dead boy"

Aegon: "I'm not dead"

Tyrion: "How not? My lord father wrapped your corpse in a crimson cloak and laid you down beside your sister at the foot of the iron throne, his gift to the new king."

Tyrion, one of the most clever and learned(particularly when it comes to Targaryens and Dragons) characters in the series, mistook a Targareyn for a common boy of Lys? And not just any Targaryen, no, he figures this is the dead son of the late Rhaegar. This, while the boys silver/white/blond hair was dyed blue, mind you, and he was disguised. Never mind Jon Connington, whose raised the boy since he was 5(4 year gap), and served both his grandsire and sire. No, he’d haven’t the slightest clue what a Targaryen of royal birth was supposed to look like.

The boy on the boat is called Aegon and he has had a 'kingly' education. That is not in dispute. That is all Varys says, he doesn't say anything to make the case that this Aegon is the original Aegon.

Tyrion recognises that this is a boy being prepared for a claim to a throne. He gets that from; i/ Illyrio and Varys's interest in who is on the Iron Throne ii/ Jon C being the one charged with raising him iii/ the fact a boy of the roughly right age to claim to be Aegon is being sent to meet Dany iv/ the boy having dyed hair, possibly as some king of disguise. Tyrion's thoughts indicate that he is undecided whether the boy is the original Aegon Targaryen or a false pretender (specifally the perhaps he really is a Targaryen after the cyvasse game).

If Aegon is a fake the plot depends on him having enough of the Targaryen / Valyrian look. That is easily found on Essos, so whether real or fake Aegon does look something like a Targaryen. It is nearly 20 years since Jon C last saw a grown Targaryen and there are no photographs so Aegon does not have to have an exact resemblance to pass (and children don't exactly resemble their parents in any case).

2. In order to harbor the belief that Aegon is false, you must also believe Quathe's prophecies to be true, and they've already proven faulty.

"The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal"

Um, why must I believe in Quathe's prophecies?

3. I’m not quite sure how people can question whether or not the switch were possible? Aegon was a 1 year old hostage whom was seldom seen(confined to a tower for however long Rhaegar was dead), while Varys knowledge and familiarity of the red keep is well documented. In addition, he commands an army of small children whom he has a part in traning, giving him access to a plethora of children ...

To pretend as if a switch of an infant baby were impossible and or even improbable given what we’ve seen in this series makes little sense. Who was there to deny the child with the crushed face(It would be highlly difficult for the 8ft monster known as the mountain, whose known for his brutality and other-wordly strength, to crush an infants face, right?) was truly Aegon? Tywin, Ned, or Robert? Please. If anything, Varys has repeatedly shown himself a master of the shadows, and any doubt to whether or not he could sneak about the red keep, in this case, to switch out a babe, should be answered and dismissed by his already proven prowess. And please spare me the, “Did she now care about Rhaenys?”, or “Ellia wouldn’t trust Varys” arguments. All heirs are kept apart during sacks, and Rhaenys specifically fled to the room of her father in an obvious attempt to seek shelter. Moreover, no woman can sit the iron throne, so the threat of Rhaenys being killed was less than that of Aegon. Ellia had no choice but to trust Varys, or concede to the switch. For one, I don’t doubt this ploy was conceived by Rheagar should he die(his life revolved around the Ptwp), and once he had, it was either trust Varys or watch her son perish.

I actually agree the switch is possible from what we know. I believe GRRM has made pains to neither proof nor disproof Aegon's identity at this point. I don't think it happened, and the possibility it could have is not proof it did.

The rest of your post seems to focus mostly on interpretation of prophecies,which can be wrong, and Rhaegar's interpretations especially have been shown as repeatedly wrong as he kept revising his interpretation.

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Actually, on rethinking it, there were no less than four baby switches:

1. Varys switches Aegon with a pretender. Gives Aegon to Illyrio.

2. Illyrio switches Aegon with "Aegon". Throws Aegon into the sea.

Aegon floats to Westeros (why not?), where he is found by Wylla, who is nursing Jon and Ashara Dayne's child. Aegon is dying, of course.

3. Wylla accidentally switches Aegon and Ashara Dayne's child. Aegon dies and Ashara kills herself in misplaced grief.

4. Wylla switches Ashara Dayne's child with Jon to hide her mistake. Ned takes Ashara Dayne's child back to Winterfell.

The real Jon is shipped off to a lesser branch of Dayne to be fostered. He is renamed Gerold.

Dun dun dun.

Oh sh*t...

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I think that there are a few issues with your theory, Bravely Done, but I thought I'd respond to the point regarding the Azor Ahai Reborn/ PtwP as two separate people. According to this video, Martin indicates that both terms refer to the same savior figure : http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Religions_of_Game_of_Thrones/ The books support this as well-- descriptions of the PtwP/ AAR are the same- reborn amidst smoke and salt, comet, red sword.

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First right, and Aeyrs didn't have it. Believe that was outlawed with Maegor the Cruel, though Aeyrs was very fond of Joanna, and commented that he wished first right were still present during Tywins wedding.

I don't think the plot advances with Cersie and Jamie being Targs. In fact, I believe it far more likely that the both of them die by the end of the series.

He also has no right to burn Rickard Stark while making Brandon Stark choke himself to death and then killing a load of young nobles and heirs including the Arryn heir and ordering Robert Baratheons head on a platter for supposed treason without a trial but....ya....

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Awesome first post.

I think you've touched on most of my reasons for doubting the theory that he's fake.

The core reasons people source for doubting the legitimacy of the newly revealed Aegon are Dany's visions while in the house of undying of the cloth Dragon, Quathe's prophecies of mummer's Dragons, wether or not the switch were possible, and the motivations, whatever they are, of Varys and Illyrio Mopatis.

1. For starters...

I'll add another core reason that people don't believe that he's real: They don't want to.

It's silly how many times somebody has shown their bias by spouting something along the lines of:

"I can't see GRRM adding such a big player at such a late stage in the game. I would hate that."

People who say this are presuming to know what George Martin would and wouldn't do. George martin, the guy that fucks with our expectations and perceptions as easily as I scratch my balls?

Plus it's an easily disproven statement. Aegon IS a big player now, regardless of who he came out of when he was born.

As far as I know AFFC occurred simultaneously to most of ADWD where we were introduced to Euron Greyjoy, a guy who won the support of the Iron Islands then decided to take all of the military might of the Ironborn to support Daenerys. He sounds like a big player to me.

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