Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)

[Vympel]

Two things:

1. Most people seem to get caught up in the "slayer of lies" part of the HotU combined with the cloth dragon Dany sees. Sure, this could mean she comes in and slays the lie of Aegon being Aegon. But a cloth dragon hung on poles is not a sigil. It doesn't point to Aegon being cheered, that would be a three headed dragon banner. The cloth dragon to me refers to the crowd of people celebrating the return of dragons. Dany has returned to Westeros and they are cheering her on with a cloth dragon in support.

Could be she slays the lie of Targaryens being shitty (esp. if people start calling Aegon a fool, or mummer's dragon, if you will), could be she slays the lie of her own dragons being a good thing. But I think, like the crowd calling her mother, this will be a literal scene when Dany lands on Westeros.

Dany is the one who calls it a mummer's dragon. It is not associated with Quiathe's mummer's dragon (I agree this could be Quentyn, or I have posted many times that Aegon is just an idiot, and people will grow to call him a fool)

2. The GC commander told everyone that Aegon was alive, but regardless of who he really is they HAD to have been told hes the real Aegon. JC told the previous commander of GC about Aegon, and he believes Aegon was truly Aegon, so the previous GC commander was in on the plan to put Rhaegars son back on the throne.

Let's all remember that there is room for interpretation in the book's prophecies - lots of it. So arguing about what the prophecies could mean is perfectly fine. However, when people say "lol Aegon being a fake is all made up and an illegitimate theory" - sorry, that's total BS.

[PatrickStormborn]

"Mummer's dragon" = fake dragon, just as "mummer's tears" = fake tears. Dany calls the vision in the House of the Undying a "mummer's dragon", and she has to slay the lie of this vision.

so what you are saying is that Varys SHOULDN'T have wanted Aerys to remain king, because he was mad, and Rhaegar would have been a better king. Yet he would wan't Viserys, who is also mad, or Dany, a woman, instead of Aegon, who has been raised to rule as a prudent, merciful, and just ruler?

No.

I'm saying Varys, if he was a Targaryen loyalist, shouldn't have been adding to Aerys' paranoia, particularly where Rhaegar is concerned, as he would have made an excellent king.

As for your other points... Viserys was a child when he was exiled. Dany, a woman, is currently the only dragonrider in the world, and is leading an army bigger than that of most men. Aegon, on the other hand, is a spoiled brat who kicked over a cyvasse table because he lost despite being groomed for leadership. Viserys and Dany never stood a chance, but Aegon is hardly the poster boy for good monarchs.

Then why did he beg Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin? Surely if he wanted Aerys gone he would have backed up the Grandmaester

Im not saying your wrong but it doesnt all add up neatly

Maybe Tywin Lannister taking over King's Landing just didn't fit Varys' endgame. Or maybe he truly thought that Tywin was coming to help.

[Quentyn the Blazed]

No, Aegon is not legitimate.

I'll focus on your argument that Varys and Illyrio are secret Targaryen loyalists. Firstly, Varys worked as hard as possible to increase the paranoia of Aerys. Why would he do that if he wanted the Targaryen dynasty to remain stable? Why would he inform Aerys that Rhaegar was plotting to take his throne? Surely, if he supported the Targaryens, he'd want Rhaegar on the throne, not Aerys?

His job was to root out traitors, and he did. Aerys gave him the job specifically to find traitors, and Aerys was already distrustful of Rhaegar. Of course Varys reported the truth to his boss, not his fault if everyone is a traitor.

When Varys first gets the job could be he only cares about making a name for himself, whatever. But then after the sack and all he starts to feel for the targs. THEN he becomes a loyalist. its a possibility

This new Targaryen is also close to a deus ex machina. There have been no hints to his survival in previous novels, he's just come from nowhere and the readers are expected to buy into him? I don't think GRRM would play so fast and loose with his story, it is rather, something that you would find in fan fic. However, what he most certainly has seeded throughout the series is that a "false dragon" would represent a threat to Dany's ambitions. A false Aegon fits with that neatly and represents better storytelling.

There have been plenty of hints. The story of the babies head smashed in to be unrecognizable was told a million times. The way Illyrio sarcastically calls Viserys your grace and his general vibe towards Viserys in the first Dany chapter of AGoT shows GRRM has been planning to have Aegon come in from the beginning. This doesn't prove hes real, but hes a plot development that has been in the works since day 1.

[Lord Varys]

We don't know exactly what Varys whispered to Aerys. If he was the one who convinced Aerys to go to Harrenhal, this might have actually just a way to prevent a war. Rhaegar might have intended to get some of the Lords at Harrenhal on his side, but no Prince of Dragonstone ever rebelled against his father and king. Rhaegar would not have been able to depose his father without a civil war. Just as during the Dance of Dragons, the rift would have gone even during the Kingsguard.

And there would have been those lords who would have tried to gain Aerys's favor by helping him to destroy Rhaegar. Tywin would have been first of those, winning Aerys's favor back and Viserys's hand for Cersei, in exchange for dealing with Rhaegar.

If Varys convinced Aerys to go to Harrenhal, he prevented a war. Had Rhaegar defeated Robert, he would have had the authority/support to depose Aerys, but before the Rebellion, during a time of peace and plenty, many lords would have been more than reluctant to join Rhaegar in a Rebellion...

[butterbumps!]

Tyrion: "How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?"

Illirio: "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, is was the end of the male line of house Blackfyre. And Daeneyrs will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home."

I think you're putting too much faith in and emphasis on Varys and Illyrio's words. I think anything either of those two say has to be approached with caution.

In this quote here, you're taking Illyrio's saying that there is "no difference" between the Targ/ Blackfyre as fact. In truth, there is a considerable division between Targ and Blackfyre loyalists which Tyrion picks up on-- he thinks it's strange that a Blackfyre company would take up a Targ cause. Illyrio says that there's no difference as a way to assuage Tyrion's skepticism, because it is, in fact, odd for the Golden Company to want to help a Targ get the throne (either Dany or Aegon).

There's more to cast doubt on Illyrio's endgame here. When Tyrion grows suspicious of Illyrio's investment in all of this, Illyrio tells him that he wants to be master of coin in Westeros. Seriously?

"The Beggar King swore that I should be his master of coin, and a lordly lord as well. Once he wore his golden crown, I should have my choice of castles....even Casterly Rock, if I desired" Liar, Tyrion thought. There is something in this venture worth more to you than coin or castles.

So my question is whether you also take Illyrio's "I want to be master of coin" at face value as well.

One other point of note to question Illyrio's truthfulness in all this is what he tells us of his wife. Apparently, Illyrio keeps Serra's hands pickled in a jar. Yet he also tells us that she died of Greyscale. This should give us pause. Greyscale first attacks the hands; if both of these things are true, then Illyrio would have a jar of pickled greyscale hands. I doubt that Serra died of greyscale AND had her hands pickled. I'm bringing this piece up because it is extremely suspicious.

All I'm trying to say that is there are a number of exchanges that tell us to read between the lines when it comes to Illyrio's words. We cannot take for granted his explanation of why the Golden Company would aid "Aegon" without further scrutiny, as he systematically gives good reason for suspicion.

[Im no Ser]

Aegon could be real, but probably isn't.

At the end of the day, the evidence in favor of his being genuine are:

1 - He has the right color hair

2 - Varys said so

3 - Varys said so in front of a dying Kevan and about a half dozen of the little birds

I don't find Varys particularly credible since he's a professional liar. His statement to Kevan doesn't change that as he is surrounded by others when he makes it. And the hair coloring is easy enough to fake.

The mummer's dragon prophecy doesn't factor into my analysis at all, nor does any dissastisfaction with the timing of Aegon's arrival.

Where I do agree with the OP is that it doesn't matter. Aegon is believed to be real by enough (armed and dangerous) people in Westeros, and that's really the issue.

[ARYa_Nym]

I believe that Varys did lie to Kevan. Why would Aegon know what it's like to be hunted? Dany and Viserys weren't even hunted until Dany got pregnant. I doubt he went hungry too. I believe that he was well provided for.

I think Quaithe just gave a warning not a prophecy.

Most people rely more so on the Undying because it says slayer of lies. & Moqorro said that there will be dragons false and true with Tyrion snarling amongst them all. Tyrion is the only one poised to meet all potential Targs.

"Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros... "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all."

The Theon spoiler chapter said that Bittersteel vowed to get a Blackfyre on the throne so that's another hint I think.

[Bravely Done]

You mention Varys warning Jorah of the assassination attempt on Dany. Of course, Varys is the one who arranges the assassination attempt on Dany.

Yes, as he arranged all their assisination attempts. Coincidence that those knives were always a step behind(Per Danny), and failed, I'm sure.

In fact, we don't know for sure that Varys 'warned' Jorah or told him to stop it. We can only assume Jorah was told an assassination was coming and Jorah did the rest on his own. But Varys had no logical reason to inform the Small Council of Dany's pregnancy or arrange an assassination if he was just a Targaryen loyalist.

He had been giving Robert intel on the Targaryen children for years, as was his duty. Choice information I'm sure, hence the reason they managed to stay alive. Also, Jorah sent his last message to Kings Landing while in Qarth, long after Robert had perished. Who do you think were getting those messages? How did Illyrio knew Danny was in Qarth, in order to gift her ships? How did Barristan Selmy reach Danny, eh?

Illyrio beings Aegon's son is far from the most farfetched theory on this board.

Pretty close.

Have you seen Nedbert? Tyrion mentions Illyrio having children's clothing in his possession and Illyrio speaks awfully fondly of Aegon

Tyrion is of a size with Tommen, whom was 8 when they were last around each other. Aegon was 5 when he left Illyrio for Grif(Griff whom Illyrio claims to trust like a brother). The clothes wouldn't fit, not that a rich man having childrens clothes is anything more than a rich man having childrens clothes. He knew whom he was transporting, and he knew Tyrion travaled acorss the sea lacking much of his possessions. He simply prepared according to whom it was he was transporting. Nothing more, nothing less. Using Aegon's old clothes on Tyrion would be a poor way to disguise a plot device, don't think think? George deserves more credit.

he even gets visibly upset when he is told he won't be able to see him before he heads down the Rhoyne. Seems like a deep attachment.

Concrete evidence right there. Therefore Griff standing atop his castle with Aegon reminding him of Rheagar is proof that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, right?

You mention that the GC was heading to support Dany, and had broken a contract, before finding out about Aegon. This is not true.

Illyrio was informing Tyrion that he'd broken the GC's contract back when Illyrio was develivering Tyrion to the Rhyone in Tyrion's second chapter.

ADWD, pg. 78

Illyrio: "The Golden Company marches toward Volantis as we speak, there to await the coming of our Queen out of the East."

Tyrion: "I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with the free cities?"

Illyrio: "Myr. Contracts can be broke.

You mention that Tyion figures out who Aegon is supposed to be, but he also indicates doubt. When Aegon throws his cyvasse tantrum, Tyrion thinks- paraphrase- 'Perhaps he is a real Targaryen'

Yes, Tyrion expressed doubt for half a second. Outside of that, he was fully convinced Aegon was whom he said he was. At least according to the text.

[Quentyn the Blazed]

"lol Aegon being a fake is all made up and an illegitimate theory" - sorry, that's total BS.

Who said that? Everyone here who supports Aegon being real backed it up with some kind of evidence. Faegon supporters on the other hand...

[Rody]

Drogon - Danny

Rhaegal - Aegon

Viserion - Jon snow

I nerded all over the floor!

[What Is Dead Already Died]

Didn't Varys just give Jorah a Pardon and Jorah gave him info on how to find danny? I don't recall Varys telling jorah about the poisoner to save her life.

[Vympel]

Who said that?

Are you kidding me? Not only is it here:-

Actually, there's no reason to believe that. I'm curious as to why it's even a legitimate theory?

But you just implied it again, here:-

Everyone here who supports Aegon being real backed it up with some kind of evidence. Faegon supporters on the other hand...

And further, you're honestly going to sit here and tell me there is no evidence has been presented that Aegon is a fake? LOL.

[butterbumps!]

Who said that? Everyone here who supports Aegon being real backed it up with some kind of evidence. Faegon supporters on the other hand...

The evidence being that we take what Varys and Illyrio say at face value? We don't have any evidence to say that Aegon is real. We are told that his head was dashed in by Gregor, and then we are told by Varys and Illyrio that that was a lie. So exactly what evidence is there to say that Aegon is Rhaegar's son?

However, what we do have evidence for is that both Varys and Illyrio lie-- often and with zest. We also know that the Golden Company is a Blackfyre organization. We also have evidence of multiple references and foreshadowing to Blackfyres, which increased when we were introduced to Aegon.

[7OldDrownedRedGodsofLight]

The evidence being that we take what Varys and Illyrio say at face value? We don't have any evidence to say that Aegon is real. We are told that his head was dashed in by Gregor, and then we are told by Varys and Illyrio that that was a lie. So exactly what evidence is there to say that Aegon is Rhaegar's son?

However, what we do have evidence for is that both Varys and Illyrio lie-- often and with zest. We also know that the Golden Company is a Blackfyre organization. We also have evidence of multiple references and foreshadowing to Blackfyres, which increased when we were introduced to Aegon.

so you have speculation that he is a fake and everyone should now believe that?

[Andy Blackfyre]

For me there were 3 things that pointed to Aegon being a Blackfyre.

1. The involvement of the GC. Although as I previously stated, I had forgotten that Illyrio offered an explanation for that. But in the same breath, he offered the possibility that a Blackfyre from the female line still exists. This is difficult because I have tendency to distrust anything in the books that is said outright.

2. The mummer's dragon prophecy. Does it mean a fake dragon? Does it mean Varys' dragon? If Aegon is a Blackfyre, both would be true. But this isn't that compelling either way.

3. The dragon sign story from the QI. I considered this the most compelling evidence in favor of Aegon being a Blackfyre, but as I said, this could be referring to the GC and not Aegon.

Despite the possible problems with the theory, that I've pointed out, there is certainly evidence for it, which I've also pointed out. That's one of the things with George. It is so difficult to trust what is said outright that problems with a theory won't necessarily invalidate it. At this point I could go either way with it.

[PatrickStormborn]

His job was to root out traitors, and he did. Aerys gave him the job specifically to find traitors, and Aerys was already distrustful of Rhaegar. Of course Varys reported the truth to his boss, not his fault if everyone is a traitor.

When Varys first gets the job could be he only cares about making a name for himself, whatever. But then after the sack and all he starts to feel for the targs. THEN he becomes a loyalist. its a possibility

Even if he only became a loyalist after the sack, things still don't make sense. Why would he save Aegon if he only became a loyalist later? Why would he leave Dany and Viserys to starve across the Free Cities? How could he be sure that Aegon would be unrecognisable?

[Quentyn the Blazed]

Are you kidding me? Not only is it here:-

But you just implied it again, here:-

And further, you're honestly going to sit here and tell me there is no evidence has been presented that Aegon is a fake? LOL.

Yeah, but they provided evidence to Aegon being real. Sure, some Faegon supporters here have given their evidence, but there are others who come in and hate on the haters

I'm not sure what argument you're addressing here, but personally since I think Illyrio and Varys care nothing for the difference between House Blackfyre and House Targaryen, they hope for Aegon to marry his aunt and seal the breach.

Sounds like you just put in an argument for Aegon being real...congrats, welcome to the winning team! Aegon should marry his AUNT. And if they dont give a shit about the type of targaryen, why not take the real aegon Varys snuck out of the red keep and make him king?

[Quentyn the Blazed]

Also JC is the one who told the former commander about Aegon being alive, and he suported JCs plan on nurturing him for future conquest. When would they get the idea hes a blackfyre?

[7OldDrownedRedGodsofLight]

Even if he only became a loyalist after the sack, things still don't make sense. Why would he save Aegon if he only became a loyalist later? Why would he leave Dany and Viserys to starve across the Free Cities? How could he be sure that Aegon would be unrecognisable?

"Arya" left from King's Landing, where the real Arya was for a time, and Jeyne Poole ("Arya") for that matter. Nobody in the book questioned if Jeyne was the real Arya. On the other hand baby Aegon was kept hidden from the time of Rhaegar's death, to the time of his own death/ switch.

Aegon didn't need to be unrecognizable for Varys' plan to work, but it did help.

[Dr. Pepper]

I believe that Varys did lie to Kevan. Why would Aegon know what it's like to be hunted? Dany and Viserys weren't even hunted until Dany got pregnant. I doubt he went hungry too. I believe that he was well provided for.

This. Exactly this. There's no way we can trust Varys when he lied about Aegon being hunted and going hungry because we know it's not true. If no one knew "Aegon" existed, he couldn't have been hunted. And the kid sure as hell didn't know what it was like to be hungry. He was sponsored by Illyrio, one of the richest men in the series. If Illyrio and/or Varys were actually Targ supporters, they would have found a way to also sponsor Dany and Viserys instead of allowing them to wonder around the Free Cities with no support and receiving no education. After all, if Aegon is actually a Targaryen, there'd be a need to make sure his heirs were properly prepared to take the throne in case he fell over dead from greyscale or red spots or something.