Learning to Lead IV: sucess in failure? An ADWD Daenerys and Jon reread project

[Fire Eater]

Barristan states "It is better to die with honor than to live without it."

Compare this to the epilogue of ADwD when Kevan thinks Better to live shamed than die proud.

Barristan is better than Ned Stark in that Barristan is honorable, yet years of observing the royal court of King's Landing have made him more practical and realistic. Kevan learned from Tywin who felt that survival was the key goal while Ned felt that things like honor are more important than life itself. Barristan is now trying to mediate from the middle ground between the two diverging philosophies, and reach a solution that has aspects of both: surviving with honor.

[Dr. Pepper]

Jon's final chapter. This is quite long and quote-heavy, but I found it necessary to pull out these specific quotes.

Jon XIII

Overview

Ghost is locked up while Borroq and the boar are at the wall. Jon meets with Selyse to request aid in a mission to Hardhome. Selyse refuses and informs Jon that Gerrick Kingsblood is the true King-Beyond-the-Wall and his daughters will be married to her men and Val married to Ser Patrek. As he is leaving, Jon is stopped by Melisandre and they have a discussion about ships, fire visions and Ghost. At Jon's apartments, Mully and Fulk the Flea say that Ghost tried to bite them. Marsh and Yarwyck come to discuss plans. They leave, Ghost bristles at them. Marsh does agree to dig out and move the prisoners in the ice cells. Clydas brings Jon the 'pink letter'. Tormund and Jon discuss plans. Torumund will lead the mission to Hardhome while Jon leads one to Winterfell. Jon reveals the plans in the Shieldhall. On the way to tell Selyse of the letter, Jon hears screams and discovers Wun Wun having killed Ser Patrek. While Jon is trying to calm the situation, Wick and Marsh stab him.

Observations

• Gerrick Kingsblood...the wildling looked every inch a southron lord. He could walk into the throne room at King’s Landing, and no one would blink an eye, Jon thought.
  
• Toregg is with Val and Monster. Jon lets him stay, despite the fact that Selyse has requested Val's presence in her chambers and informed of her marriage arrangement to Ser Patrek.
  
• "They know nothing, Ygritte. And worse, they will not learn." I know nothing has turned into they know nothing.
  
• “King o’ the Wildlings?” Tormund roared. “Har! King o’ My Hairy Butt Crack, more like.” Tormund's humor is so very different from Edd's.
  

Analysis

Jon and the Southerners

Jon is a bit more curt and forceful with the Southerners than normal. He's stubborn with his plan to send a mission to rescue those stranded at Hardhome. Selyse denies his request for aid and points out that they have no food for them. She then brings in Gerrick and tells of the marriage arrangements she has made between his daughters and her own men as well as with Val and Ser Patrek.

“Gerrick is the true and rightful king of the wildlings,” the queen said, “descended in an unbroken male line from their great king Raymun Redbeard, whereas the usurper Mance Rayder was born of some common woman and fathered by one of your black brothers.”

All in the room fail to note that Stannis' claim to the throne comes from both a bastard line and a usurper and Stannis' ability to actually acquire his claim depends on merit, not blood. It may have been a missed opportunity for Jon to find common ground between the wildlings and everyone else and sway opinion on wildling customs.

Melisandre follows Jon out and Jon repeatedly interrupts her. She tells him of new things she's seen in her fires.

“Your fires have been known to lie.”

“I have made mistakes, I have admitted as much, but—”

“A grey girl on a dying horse. Daggers in the dark. A promised prince, born in smoke and salt. It seems to me that you make nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his spearwives? Where is my sister?”

“All your questions shall be answered. Look to the skies, Lord Snow. And when you have your answers, send to me. Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope.”

“A fool’s hope.” Jon turned and left her.

Tze has often pointed out how misguided Melisandre is. Mel is not only incorrect in many of her fire visions, but also in the way she interprets the behavior of those around her. Jon has been accommodating to Melisandre before, but this is the first time he has been abrupt and rude. In previous chapters, he's acknowledged that she has power that he is interested in keeping at a distance. His lack of diplomacy here may have caused Melisandre to reconsider the way she chooses to get his attention.

Jon as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch

Jon's relationship with his NW advisors grows ever tenuous.

" As for Borroq, Othell Yarwyck claimed the woods north of Stonedoor were full of wild boars. Who was to say the skinchanger would not make his own pig army?"

Who thinks of pig armies? And Jon thought Yarwyck was unimaginative. ;) Yarwyck is probably unaware that a wolf army exists south of the Neck and it's unlikely he knew of Varamyr Sixskins, so it is a creative and reasonable conclusion to draw about Borroq.

Later,

A lord needed men about him he could rely upon for honest counsel. Marsh and Yarwyck were no lickspittles, and that was to the good … but they were seldom any help either. More and more, he found he knew what they would say before he asked them...."Yarwyck was no more helpful. “If the wildlings at Hardhome need saving, let the wildlings here go save them. Tormund knows the way to Hardhome. To hear him talk, he can save them all himself with his huge member.”

This was pointless, Jon thought. Pointless, fruitless, hopeless. “Thank you for your counsel, my lords.”

In this instance, Yarwyck is actually a lot of help. Of course, Tormund speaks often and loudly about his member, but Marsh doesn't reveal any insight he's picked up from the wildlings. Yarwyck, on the other hand, has clearly paid attention when the wildlings speak. While Marsh's counsel was that dead wildlings are good wildlings, Yarwyck offers a solution that is a compromise to both Jon and Marsh. The wildlings at Hardhome get saved and, for a while, the wildling presence at the wall is limited. Jon seems to have given up on even attempting a common ground with his Night's Watch advisors. This might have been a good time for Jon to remind himself that he knows nothing. Failing to recognize a compromise is very dangerous indeed.

When they leave Jon's quarters, Yarwyck points out the snow drifts blocking the ice cells. Jon commands Marsh to have the drifts cleared and to use Wun Wun to do it, Bowen is quite accommodating. Yarwyck was a contender for Lord Commander. Is Yarwyck the person Marsh hopes to make the 999th Lord Commander?

He continues to have good relations with the wildling and outcast NW members. Leathers and Satin remain trusted and leal in his thoughts.

Jon as King of the Wildlings

In Jon XII, he notes that Castle Black comes alive with the influx of wildlings. Jon is much more at ease and alive when he's with Tormund. There is a bit of joking going on before the Pink Letter is brought in. Jon does not call in any NW advisors and instead spends two hours discussing plans with Tormund. Tormund's mission ends up being the suggestion made earlier by Yarwyck.

Yarwyck, Marsh and co are all in attendance. Yarwyck hears Jon announce that Tormund is given credit for the counsel he offered earlier and also that Jon understands the mission to Winterfell may be a violation of their vows.

Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them.

Jon thinks that he does not need them. He knows nothing. It appears that Lord Commander 999 has just walked out, with his voters tagging behind.

Then Tormund was pounding him on the back, all gap-toothed grin from ear to ear. “Well spoken, crow. Now bring out the mead! Make them yours and get them drunk, that’s how it’s done. We’ll make a wildling o’ you yet, boy. Har!”

Tormund doesn't expand on what he means by 'how it's done'. I went back to see what Mance had to say about how one becomes King of the Wildlings:

The free folk won’t follow a name, and they don’t care which brother was born first. They follow fighters. When I left the Shadow Tower there were five men making noises about how they might be the stuff of kings. Tormund was one, the Magnar another. The other three I slew, when they made it plain they’d sooner fight than follow.”

Jon has always secretly yearned for the titles his Stark brothers were eligible for. It's a bitter irony that his lineage, if known, would have afforded him this. He proved his strength during the battle at the wall and his diplomacy in his management of the wildlings that have moved south of the wall. He has shown capable of swaying some of the top leaders to his side, especially with the marriage alliance he procured to Sigorn (And where the heck is he anyway?) and the treaty he made with Tormund. The ones who agree to come with him to Winterfell are wildling leaders. Despite having some of the most noble blood at Castle Black, he appears to have inadvertantly become the de facto King of the Wildlings, a position based on merit, not blood.

Also interesting in this section is that Jon has taken on referring to the black brothers as crows in his own thoughts, a term used by wildlings.

The wildlings outnumbered the crows by five to one, judging by how little black he saw.

The Pink Letter

There are many theories over who authored the Pink Letter (I support the theory that it was Mance and the letter is a code meant to be interpreted by Mel) and can be found via the search option. When looking at the Pink Letter in relation to our analysis of Jon's leadership, it represents another moment where Jon's motives align less with tradition and more with what's 'right'. The Pink Letter incident recalls Dany's meeting with Xaro Xhoan Daxos. Though Dany felt in her gut that slavery was wrong, she lacked the ability to articulate why it was wrong. Jon can feel in his gut why his planned mission to Winterfell is equally important and necessary as the planned mission to Hardhome thoug he seems to lack the ability to adequately articulate the righteousness of both causes. For both Jon and Dany, their intent to improve the lives and humanity of those around them buck against the traditions of the areas in which they lead.

Jon's issue is that he has sworn a solemn vow. While the vow does not explicitly prevent the Night's Watch from taking part in grievances south of the wall, the tradition of his institution has been one of neutrality when it comes to the Seven Kingdoms.

Jon does have a moment where he thinks that Mel might have been accurate in at least one vision.

“Melisandre … look to the skies, she said.” He set the letter down. “A raven in a storm. She saw this coming.”

I believe that it would be a mistake for Jon to indebt himself to Melisandre. Still, this is the first time that Jon was given a warning in advance that actually came to pass. As part of Stannis' entourage, Mel seems to have a level of respect from some NW brothers, though she is distrusted and somewhat despised by the wildlings. Jon's decision not to go to Mel for assistance, especially after telling Tormund that Mel knew this was coming, indicates that Jon's allegiance may be shifting, even if sub-consciously.

The Ides of Marsh?

After coming upon Wun Wun having dismembered and pulverized Ser Patrek, Wick and Marsh stab Jon. In Jon XI, Yarwyck says

"Once past the Wall, the wildlings will have thrice our numbers...they will have the strength to end the Night's Watch in a single night."

Yarwyck's absence from the stabbing circle is both understandable and curious. If he should become a candidate for the 999th Lord Commander, it is prudent that he at least appear (to both the watch and the wildlings) that he played no part in the current Lord Commander's assassination. Still, his previous musings show he is aware of the imbalanced ratio of NW to wildlings and he also seems to understand that the wildlings have a certain loyalty to Jon. This assassination attempt has the ability to turn into a full out war between the wildlings and the NW, with the NW being on the losing end. It makes little sense for Marsh, who was previously seen with Yarwyck, to stab Jon in the middle of a group of wildlings, one of which is a very upset giant. Unless...

[crackpot theorizing] Perhaps Yarwyck has a bit more insight into the wildlings and the First Men than he's let on. Those of First Men blood aren't confined to the north. We have evidence of First Men families in the Vale and the Riverlands and perhaps the Iron Islands. Why not also in the Westerlands? House Yarwyck's banner includes two bronze halberds. Bronze is associated with both the Free Folk and the First Men. House Royce allegedly has bronze armor that protects them from injury. Is it possible that Yarwyck has a bronze amulet that protects him, if not physically then at least symbolically? Before I considered the bronze/first men angle, another idea is that perhaps Yarwyck has made friends with Mel and indebted himself so that he is protected in some way from the obviously impending riot.[/crackpot theorizing]

Dany vs. Jon

I admit that I came into this re-read project with very biased views towards Jon and Dany. My impression of Dany was quite negative while my thoughts on Jon have always been positive. This project and the contributions from posters has been enjoyably satisfying as it's challenged me to consider these two characters and the themes in the text in different ways. I'll leave with just a few parting thoughts on some of the comparisons I found most interesting.

Both Jon and Dany are very lonely at the top, yet Jon seems to really like being a leader while Dany despises it. Dany has charisma while Jon is more somber. Jon is castle-educated while Dany has 'street/commoner smarts'. We have observed within these threads that both Jon and Dany lack a certain 'middle ground' when dealing with their advisors. The way they deal with food issues is certainly contrasting. Apart from obtaining a loan, Jon has been unable to secure a food source while Dany has planted trees and successfully opened trade with neighboring areas. I acknowledge that climate issues at this time differ greatly for Jon and Dany, but ensuring adequate sustence for a population should be the primary concern for any ruler. I think that Dany's world experience in this matter offers her a better insight into the importance of a food source. I must concede that it is intriguing to think how well they might complement one another if given the opportunity to work as a team.

[butterbumps!]

" As for Borroq, Othell Yarwyck claimed the woods north of Stonedoor were full of wild boars. Who was to say the skinchanger would not make his own pig army?"

:lmao: oh, the great things I could accomplish if only I had a pig army. Like large-scale regicide of drunken kings.

ok, ok, seriously, though. I was waiting on this chapter to address the meaning of the "assembly" of boars by the Wall after Blisscraft's excellent point about how boars seem to portend death. I wonder if boars=death, then if there is something a bit darker than just the assassination of Jon. Perhaps a larger foreshadowing of death at a greater scale/ extreme danger looming over the Watch?

[Ragnorak]

:lmao: oh, the great things I could accomplish if only I had a pig army. Like large-scale regicide of drunken kings.

ok, ok, seriously, though. I was waiting on this chapter to address the meaning of the "assembly" of boars by the Wall after Blisscraft's excellent point about how boars seem to portend death. I wonder if boars=death, then if there is something a bit darker than just the assassination of Jon. Perhaps a larger foreshadowing of death at a greater scale/ extreme danger looming over the Watch?

I think the large scale death might immediately follow Jon's stabbing. Ser Patreck's attack on Wun Wun is a guest right violation. Selyse doesn't really seem to get that concept even though Jon explicitly spelled it out for her. Given the Red Wedding it isn't likely anyone is going to chalk up a guest right violation to a misunderstanding. How are several thousand Wildlings going to react to being told by some pompous Queen with a dead child that a giant doesn't count for the sacred guest right? On top of that the Free Folk aren't going to sympathize with the idea that Val can be given away in the first place. Who in the Watch is going to step up if Jon is unconscious? I see bad things... very bad things... You're going to need a bigger symbolic pig army.

Speaking of that pig army-- Hey! Arya has been building her wolf army for like 5 books now. She's been building a cat army for two books and only has like one cat in that army and maybe a few groupies who like the fish smell. It is so unfair for this guy who only showed up last chapter to get a whole pig army!

ETA

“Wun Wun is a guest of the Night’s Watch, as you are.”

The queen did not like that answer. Nor did her knights.

Another bloody southron fool. “You are ... ?”

“Ser Patrek of King’s Mountain, if it please my lord.”

“I do not know how you observe guest right on your mountain, ser. In the north we hold it sacred. Wun Wun is a guest here.”

[Associate Maester]

:lmao: oh, the great things I could accomplish if only I had a pig army. Like large-scale regicide of drunken kings.

ok, ok, seriously, though. I was waiting on this chapter to address the meaning of the "assembly" of boars by the Wall after Blisscraft's excellent point about how boars seem to portend death. I wonder if boars=death, then if there is something a bit darker than just the assassination of Jon. Perhaps a larger foreshadowing of death at a greater scale/ extreme danger looming over the Watch?

To recall Greek myth. The boar is also a symbol of punishment for not honoring the laws and sacrifices to the gods. We see this in the Artemis sending the Calydonian boar after Oeneus for not honoring her with the annual sacrifices.

[Chaircat Meow]

As a general observation on Jon's arc, now that we're at the final chapter, is anyone else wondering what has become of Ser Denys Mallister? He is one of Jon's senior officers, and the commander of the Shadowtower and we hardly ever hear from him. The same pretty much goes for Cotter Pyke, although he is sending letters about the expedition to Hardhome of course (and about Selyse).

They are both presented reacting negatively to Jon giving them wildlings to supplement their garrisons (earlier on), but after that we never hear about their reactions to Jon's policies at all. I find this very frustrating. In SoS I think they were both presented as at least reasonably competent men iirc. They were, after all, the obvious choices for LC and were never presented as toxic like Slynt. They are certainly a cut above Marsh and Yarwyck. One of the most notable features of Jon's story, for most people (me included) seems to be the truly awful quality of his advisors and their advice. Many have pointed out Jon's critic-in-chief, Marsh, has been thoroughly denigrated by Mormont and others in every book since GoT. It is still wrong to assume everything that Bowen says is therefore rubbish of course, but it is interesting that Jon's critics are both bedeviled by unlikable personalities and poor leadership credentials. Jon seems to talk to few other high ranking members of the NW, nearly all his interactions with his fellow blackbrothers, at a senior level, are with these two. In this chapter Jon laments the abilities of the current leaders of the watch, opining that they need men with the wisdom of Aemon, the courage of Noye etc, but he never seems to think about, or discuss anything with his other officers, who are likely to be more capable. I'm unsure what to make of this.

Essentially I think it deprives of us of any chance to understand to how Jon's leadership is seen from the point of view of competent and respected NW commanders.

[Ragnorak]

I think Jon is the current King of the Wildlings and just doesn't know it yet.

The Free Folk and Northerners-- especially the Starks-- are one people in their eyes. They're also one people through all the Northern women taken on raids. There's the Umber daughter and the theory that Tormund is the father of some Mormonts.

When the Nights King rose it was the Stark in Winterfell and the King-Beyond-the-Wall that allied to take him down. The CotF used to bring obsidian to the Watch. At some point this unity was lost to those south of the Wall as the true purpose of their fight against the Others was lost.

I've posted this in other threads but here is the Bael the Bard tale.

“Were they your kin?” he asked her quietly. “The two we killed?”

“No more than you are.”

“Me?” He frowned. “What do you mean?”

“You said you were the Bastard o’ Winterfell.”

“I am.”

“Who was your mother?”

“Some woman. Most of them are.” Someone had said that to him once. He did not remember who.

She smiled again, a flash of white teeth. “And she never sung you the song o’ the winter rose?”

“I never knew my mother. Or any such song.”

“Bael the Bard made it,” said Ygritte. “He was King-beyond-the-Wall a long time back. All the free folk know his songs, but might be you don’t sing them in the south.”

“Winterfell’s not in the south,” Jon objected.

“Yes it is. Everything below the Wall’s south to us.”

He had never thought of it that way. “I suppose it’s all in where you’re standing.”

“Aye,” Ygritte agreed. “It always is.”

...

The maid loved Bael so dearly she bore him a son, the song says… though if truth be told, all the maids love Bael in them songs he wrote. Be that as it may, what’s certain is that Bael left the child in payment for the rose he’d plucked unasked, and that the boy grew to be the next Lord Stark. So there it is—you have Bael’s blood in you, same as me.”

“It never happened,” Jon said.

She shrugged. “Might be it did, might be it didn’t. It is a good song, though. My mother used to sing it to me. She was a woman too, Jon Snow. Like yours.” She rubbed her throat where his dirk had cut her. “The song ends when they find the babe, but there is a darker end to the story. Thirty years later, when Bael was King-beyond-the-Wall and led the free folk south, it was young Lord Stark who met him at the Frozen Ford… and killed him, for Bael would not harm his own son when they met sword to sword.”

“So the son slew the father instead,” said Jon.

“Aye,” she said, “but the gods hate kinslayers, even when they kill unknowing. When Lord Stark returned from the battle and his mother saw Bael’s head upon his spear, she threw herself from a tower in her grief. Her son did not long outlive her. One o’ his lords peeled the skin off him and wore him for a cloak.”

“Your Bael was a liar,” he told her, certain now.

“No,” Ygritte said, “but a bard’s truth is different than yours or mine.

Aside from the Bard's truths of Jon's history-- Rhaegar was a bard and Lyanna loved him so dearly she bore him a son-- it shows that the Wildlings believe that they are kin with the Starks. Not just any Stark, but Jon is the Bastard of Winterfell. The Wildlings just found out that Jon didn't fight and kill Mance like in Bael's story but that the Bastard of Winterfell and "Bael" united to fight the Lord who is threatening to flay Mance and wear his skin like a cloak. Jon's request to go save Mance and Arya from the Boltons in Winterfell can't be any more compelling to the Free Folk. It is the fulfillment of every aspect of truth in Bael's story including reuniting them with their kin south of the Wall.

This, and every warrior in Tormund's service personally swore loyalty to Jon as they passed through the Wall. Puts a whole new spin on Tormunds King of my Hairy Butt Crack line.

[Julian Rayne]

The Pink Letter: I hold the minority opinion that the Pink Letter was indeed from Ramsay, and it was the truth as he knew it. It just had too many of his little verbal psychotic tics for me to believe that anyone else wrote it.

Crackpot theories: Is it possible that Bowen was a glamored Yarwick? Although I suppose that once we start assuming that everyone was glamored or warged by someone else, there's no ending to it and the discussion becomes almost solipsist in its lack of a logical framework. But the thought occurred to me.

[Dr. Pepper]

Crackpot theories: Is it possible that Bowen was a glamored Yarwick? Although I suppose that once we start assuming that everyone was glamored or warged by someone else, there's no ending to it and the discussion becomes almost solipsist in its lack of a logical framework. But the thought occurred to me.

I think a warged or glamored Bowen would be unlikely simply due to his tears. Wick might be an option with his whole wide-eyed "it wasn't me" look. I briefly considered that Yarwyck was a skingchanger of sorts, but discarded it. Jon has increasingly exhibited the ability to recognize other skinchangers and he doesn't pick this up from Yarwyck. I think a glamour-like option (with Wick being the likely vessel) would hint towards Yarwyck having requested assistance from Mel.

[Fire Eater]

Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them.

After they stepped out, did Marsh and Yarwyck have a brief council with their men, and decide they needed to kill Jon now?

Mully agreed. "He tried to take a bite o' me, he did."

I think Mully may be one of Bowen's cohorts. Mully is a steward, and also when Jon sent Val beyond the Wall, Mully was there with him. Jon does think That was quick when Marsh and Co. arrived shortly after Val was sent.

He has taken a liking to Val. Her sister was a queen, why not her?

Foreshadowing? If Val becomes a queen, who will be her king? Hint: Jon

As to Dr. Pepper about Jon's dealing with food situation; Jon was going to have Myrish glassblowers and glaziers brought to the Wall to create glass gardens for the castles to feed them through the winter. He just didn't start yet, because he has a lot on his plate at the moment.

We see another deconstruction of a trope, the knight going to kill a beast guarding a princess in a tower. Patrek thought killing Wun Wun would earn Val's respect when he went to take her, saying "No man has ever had cause to question my courage. No woman ever will." I don't think it'll be his courage they'll be questioning after that but his intelligence.

[tze]

"Let them die," said Queen Selyse.

It was the answer that Jon Snow had expected. This queen never fails to disappoint.

We repeatedly see Jon hoping for Selyse to act like a Queen, a true leader dedicated to saving and protecting those weaker than her rather than obsessing about her own power base, and Selyse constantly disappoints him. When Jon thinks to himself that he "had wasted enough time here", it seems like Jon is more and more asserting himself here---the Queen won't act like a Queen, so why should she have, or be given, any true authority or allegiance?

And Selyse picks up on Jon's lack of groveling. She berates Jon for essentially disobeying her orders---for planning an expedition regardless of her command to let the wildlings die. Jon very politely points out who has the actual authority on the ground here: him, not Selyse, for "With respect, your Grace, the Wall is mine, and so is this decision." Selyse can't actually stop him, and she knows it, so she does the same thing my mother did when I was little: she threatens Jon with what will happen when Daddy comes home:

you will answer for it when the King returns. And for other decisions you have made, I fear."

The "other decisions" obviously refers to Jon letting Tormund's group through the Wall without making them swear to Stannis or take R'hllor as their god. I'm kind of torn on this: on the one hand, yeah, Stannis would probably be kind of pissed at the idea of wildlings failing to acknowledge him as their king. On the other hand, Stannis seems to respect Jon (especially when it comes to leadership decisions) a hell of a lot more than he respects Selyse, so Selyse threatening Jon with Stannis's wrath isn't exactly a terrifying thought. If Stannis did show up back at the Wall, and Selyse tried to tattle on Jon, I have difficulty seeing Stannis berating Jon for failing to obey Selyse. For failing to obey Stannis himself, yes, but not for failing to obey Selyse.

Selyse brings up the food situation at the Wall as an excuse for why the wildlings shouldn't be rescued from Hardhome, which heavily implies she's been meeting with Marsh. She doesn't (or shouldn't) have personal access to the Watch's food stores, so she shouldn't really have any idea what number of people the food stores can support, and Marsh has been known to make the "we have no food for the wildlings" argument on multiple occasions.

The Hardhome issue here seems, in many ways, to parallel the Astapor issue we saw in Dany's chapters. If Jon lets Hardhome "fall", the Others will inevitably be strengthened, because the dead will become an army for the Others, one capable of potentially attacking the Wall. When Dany refused to march to Astapor and let Astapor fall, the Yunkishmen were strengthened, as only Astapor prevented the Yunkishmen from just marching on Meereen. Marching to Hardhome meant temporarily weakening the Wall, and marching to Astapor would have meant weakening Dany's position at Meereen. Dany was asked, early on, to lend the Astapori some of her Unsullied; she refused, saying she needed them all to defend Meereen. Jon, in contrast, chose to send part of the Watch's forces to Hardhome early in ADWD, deciding to take the gamble of potentially weaking (or losing) the available ship-and-manpower resources of the Watch. Jon intended on marching to relieve Hardhome, and only altered his personal involvement there---the ranging was planned to continue on regardless, just under Tormund's command. Dany never intended on marching personally to Astapor, nor to send anyone in her place, and plenty of characters in-story consider that decision a huge mistake. We've seen the fallout from Dany's failure to send any aid to Astapor, so it'll be interesting to see what happens with the aid Jon already sent to Hardhome (Cotter Pyke and his men) as well as whether or not the ranging to Hardhome will be 100% scrapped in the wake of Jon's attack, and what the consequences there (regardless of whether aid is or is not sent) will ultimately be to the Wall.

“Gerrick is the true and rightful king of the wildlings,” the queen said, “descended in an unbroken male line from their great king Raymun Redbeard . . .”

In Jon's last chapter, we saw wildlings giving their allegiance to Jon, but none of them swore to obey Stannis. I'm sure that little factoid has been quite prominent in Selyse's thoughts of late, especially given the numerical superiority of the wildlings over her own forces at the Wall (she's clearly feeling paranoid there---Jon points out the number of guards she has around her). Tormund apparently has never even met Selyse, though it's not clear if that's due to 1) Selyse not wanting to meet Tormund, 2) Tormund not wanting to meet Selyse, or 3) Jon not wanting Tormund and Selyse in the same room together for fear of Tormund laughing in Selyse's face. (Good God, can you imagine that meeting?) I think the truth is unlikely to be the first option, because Selyse would undoubtedly have wanted Tormund to present himself to kneel before her, to try to tell him what he could and could not do---in essence, try to exert some measure of control over him, cause I doubt Selyse is thrilled about the idea of a large contingent of people around her who don't even pretend to owe her their allegiance. Options 2 and 3 have their own implications (with Option 2, that Tormund is actively opposing Selyse, with Option 3, that Jon is actively attempting to usurp a position of authority over the wildlings that Selyse thinks should be held by the crown, i.e. Selyse herself), but both options would indicate that the wildlings, in Selyse's mind, are currently actively opposed to her authority, a pretty huge problem for her. I think it's pretty clear that Selyse thinks she's found a solution to her "wildling control problem": use the "rightful king", Gerrick Kingsblood, to control the wildlings, a possibility that Jon should probably have foreseen---he knows that Selyse and her cronies refuse to give up their "blood = everything!" mantra, so it makes sense that they'd cleave onto Gerrick as a pawn to control the wildlings. If Selyse thinks Gerrick can keep the wildlings under control, than she can theoretically move against Jon without fearing the wildlings destroying her own forces. I don't think Jon ever took a step back and thought "Yes, such a plan would fail spectacularly and only a complete idiot would try it . . . but Selyse and her cronies are in fact complete idiots, so maybe I should keep Gerrick away from them before they use him as part of an idiotic plan that, while doomed to fail, could nevertheless inconvenience me greatly before said inevitable failure.")

And actually, there are some pretty interesting implications in the "plans" Selyse is making for the wildlings, especially given her stated plan to marry Val to Ser Patrek. Because if Mance is only a usurper, and Gerrick is the rightful King of the Wildlings, then Val is not a princess even under the southerners' rather strained definitions. Selyse is marrying Gerrick's daughters to her own men, but she's also intending on marrying Val to her own sworn knight. But the "claims" to wildling authority (as Selyse understands it) conflict here: if Val has value, then theoretically Gerrick and his daughters do not, and vice versa. It's possible Selyse is just trying to cover her bases here, to take Val "out of play" so that nobody can use her "claim" against Gerrick. (Is Gerrick's wife alive? If she is, it's odd that she hasn't been hanging with Selyse. If she's dead, then why doesn't Selyse marry Val to Gerrick to "unite" the two claims?) But she seems very fond of Ser Patrek, so it's odd that she'd marry Val to him if she meant to entirely "destroy" Val's "claim" to the wildling "crown", as that would leave Ser Patrek with nothing. The primary (actual) wildling leader, Tormund, is not now, nor was he ever, considered to be King-Beyond-The-Wall, so I think Selyse is assuming that "royalty" will be able to control him; but also, let's not forget that Tormund's wife is (probably) dead, so Selyse might fear Tormund marrying Val and declaring himself Mance's heir.

And there's another issue here: Selyse is claiming that Gerrick has a better "claim" to kinghood than Mance because of his alleged descent from Raymun Redbeard, but if someone's mentioned the story of Bael the Bard to Selyse (and there's a decent chance someone has---when she was told about a claim through Raymun Redbeard, the first logical question out of her mouth (after "Who on earth was Raymun Redbeard?") should have been "So does anyone else at the Wall claim descent from a past King-Beyond-the-Wall?), then that might have really frightened her and convinced her that Jon is making a play for kinghood here. Because the wildlings claim the Starks descend in an unbroken line from Bael the Bard, who was King-Beyond-The-Wall long before Raymun Redbeard. The wildlings have been swearing allegiance to Jon, who as a son of Eddard Stark, claims descent from an ancient King-Beyond-The-Wall, a claim that the wildlings themselves would obviously believe and espouse, cause after all they're the ones who like to trumpet the Bael/Stark connection. (Yes it's through a bastard line, twice-over in Jon's particular case, but Selyse might still be concerned, especially given that nobody else at the Wall seems to explciitly claim descent from Bael.) So the southerners might actually fear Jon making himself King of the Wildlings, not just through merit, but also through birth, and we know how obsessed they are with birth.

There is also a very interesting possibility that might explain why Selyse wants to control both Val and the Kingsblood family: if Melisandre, sometime between Selyse's arrival and Jon's final chapter, went to Selyse and told her that Mance is still alive. Selyse might be moving, not just to counteract Jon, but to counteract Mance himself, by expropriating both the Kingsblood "claim" as well as the "claim" of Mance's own sister-in-law. Right now, there is no explicitly "crowned" person claiming to be King-Beyond-the-Wall. But if Selyse knows Mance is still alive, and if Mel tells her that, hey, Mance is off the reservation, doing things Mel never ordered him to do, Selyse might be trying to move to gain control of the wildlings before Mance can return and seize control himself. Because while Jon seems to assume that Mel played a role in Mance's heading to Winterfell, nothing in Mel's POV, and nothing she's stated in subsequent chapters, has ever confirmed that assumption. She could very easily be just as in the dark as Jon, and the prospect of Mance executing actions not ordered by Mel could be pretty frightening to her, because Mance executing his own personal plans makes Mel look powerless---from the perspective of others (and we know how obsessed Mel is with appearances), not only would Mance have "escaped" her fires, but he also would be undertaking actions not ordered by Mel, so Mel couldn't save face by admitting to have spared his life, since that would at best mean that Mel had been manipulated and then discarded by Mance, so Mance, not Mel, would be viewed as the powerful and competent one.

And here's something I find odd: back in her POV, Melisandre left Mance alone in her chambers. The chambers that contained her precious chest of essentially irreplacable Eastern potions and powders. She left the infamous raider king of the wildlings alone, in her chambers, chambers that contained this precious item, for a pretty decent period of time. Anybody else wonder if Mel made a pretty huge mistake there? When Mel re-entered her chambers, Mance was just starting to tuck into her breakfast---so what was he doing in the time period in which Mel was away and he was all alone in her chambers? Sitting quietly and twiddling his thumbs? I somehow doubt it. Snooping? Yeah, I'd say the chances of him snooping were pretty astronomically high. Did he, perhaps, stumble upon Mel's powder chest? Did he, perhaps, purloin the contents of Mel's powder chest? (She clearly has access to at least a bit of her powders after Mance left the Wall---Jon saw her making the fires leap during the Alys/Sigorn wedding, and Mel mentioned she had powders that could "make a flame roar and hiss and leap up higher than a man is tall"---but for all we know, she's down to only what she kept in her pockets there.) We haven't had a Mel POV chapter since, so it can't be explicitly confirmed, but I wonder if Mel might have cause to be even more desperate than we've realized. Leaving Mance alone with all her stuff seems like the sort of thoughtless action that tends to backfire.

Mel told Jon here that "Your ships are lost. All of them. Not a man shall return." It's not clear whether she actually saw this or, being Mel, has mixed up what she actually saw with her own personal interpretations. Back in her POV chapter, she saw

Snowflakes swirled from a dark sky and ashes rose to meet them, the grey and the white whirling around each other as flaming arrows arced above a wooden wall and dead things shambled silent through the cold, beneath a great grey cliff where fires burned inside a hundred caves. Then the wind rose and the white mist came sweeping in, impossibly cold, and one by one the fires went out. Afterward only the skulls remained

Sounds quite a bit like Hardhome. But Hardhome was abandoned six hundred years ago, after a fiery cataclysm, so there shouldn't be any wooden walls left there, not unless the wildlings themselves built them. Which is possible, it's true . . . but I wonder if, due to the dead things in the water, the Hardhome expedition was forced to beach and destroy the ships (hence the plea to specifically send help by land---perhaps the waters around Hardhome have become impassable?), and the "wooden wall" Mel sees was made out of at least one of the ships sent by the Watch? In that case, Mel might be correct that the "ships are lost. All of them." But her "No man shall return" would then be her interpretation of the "inevitable" outcome of all of the ships being lost, not something she necessarily saw.

Whatever plans are being made in the King's Tower, I don't see how they could intend for Othell Yarwyck to become the next Lord Commander. Yarwyck got more votes during the last election than Marsh, but all that means is that Yarwyck came in second-to-last of the serious LC candidates rather than dead last; Slynt had more votes than Yarwyck. The person who consistently got the most votes (until Jon's name was thrown into the ring) was Ser Denys Mallister, and the only reason Mallister didn't full-out win was because of the presence of Cotter Pyke, so unless Pyke somehow returns from Hardhome really, really soon, any new election being held would almost certainly result in Mallister's election, not Yarwyck's. Which could have some interesting implications for this conspiracy, actually, given two tidbits: 1) Mallister seems like a very inflexible guy---look at his reaction to the whole "Mance's patched cloak" issue---so there's a decent chance that he could be opposed to Jon's pro-wildling strategies; not to mention, his past history with Mance could have fostered in him some pretty huge issues with the wildlings, and 2) The Mallister sigil is an eagle, and an eagle (Orell's eagle) attacked Jon North of the Wall---could be some foreshadowing there. Mallister is clearly a snob, obsessed with birth and blood, so he and Selyse share certain ideologies, so I could see Selyse finding Mallister a more attractive LC candidate than Jon.

And actually, if Selyse was in on the Marsh conspiracy (and I think it's practically guaranteed that she was), then Melisandre, Selyse's closest advisor, likely knew about it as well. She didn't need to warn Jon of a vision, she could logically have just flat-out told Jon what was going on with Selyse, because I think the chances of Mel being out of the loop there are pretty slim. Neither wants Jon to go ranging, but Selyse seems content with the idea of Jon dying north of the Wall, while Melisandre wants him to stay at the Wall. Why? Remember, we haven't had a POV from Mel in a good long while. We don't know what her personal situation is, how desperate she's become at Jon's repeated refusal to be her pawn, how she's reacting to the Mance situation. We know she seemed to see Jon as a positive force in her last POV---but I really don't think she realized that skinchangers are viewed as tied to the Old Gods. With Borroq's arrival, someone might have clued Mel in there, and she might not be quite so pro-Jon anymore. She seems to want Ghost with Jon, originally to save Jon. But one of the assassins here was noted by Mel, in her POV, to be a R'hllor convert. It's possible that Mel's attitude toward Jon has changed rather drastically since her last POV. When she tells Jon to send for her, as she's his only hope . . . well, perhaps that was more in a "Send for me, and take this last chance I'm offering you to show me you're willing to play ball with R'hllor . . . otherwise I'm going to help murder you, cause you're beyond my help (i.e., my control),and I can't let you remain in power if you refuse to be under my control." She might not want Jon to range north of the Wall because she fears him coming into contact with the other figures (whom we know to be Bran and Bloodraven) she thinks are associated with the Great Other. (Maybe she even had a vision of Jon with those two figures, and misinterpreted it?)

I never noticed it before, but . . . "whereas the usurper Mance Rayder was born of some common woman and fathered by one of your black brothers"??? That's not what Qhorin told Jon back in ACOK:

[Mance] was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword.

Yes, Qhorin never says Mance wasn't fathered by a Watchman, but "taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword" implies that Mance was the child of those raiders---it kind of stretches the story to try and meld the two versions--- "oh by the way, the kid taken when those raiders were killed was also known to be the son of a Watchman". I mean, it's entirely possible that someone just told Selyse a false story. but I wonder where she could have heard this version? Has she been in contact with the Shadow Tower (the place where you'd logically find the most Watchmen with intimate knowledge of Mance's history)? Could that tie into a potential alliance between Selyse and the oh-so-proper Ser Denys Mallister? Or are wires crossed here, and someone in Selyse's entourage mistook tales of Mance for tales of Craster?

Yarwyk intrigues me in this chapter. There are multiple hints that he's been interacting with the wildlings---he seems to have firsthand knowledge of Tormund's member-centric rants, and he's been dealing with the wildlings when it comes to refitting the ruined castles. He points out that most of them don't know how to build, but admits that some of them aren't completely incompetent, and doesn't seem quite so . . . blindly fearful? of them as he was in the past. Yeah, there's the whole "pig army" concern, but we don't know whether he genuinely fears this, whether some of the wildlings told him stories about skinchangers to freak him out, whether he was joking, etc. I mean, the wildlings crossed the Wall and could have destroyed the Watch in a single night---and didn't. Yarwyck is having issues with rebuilding the castles, but Jon makes it clear in this chapter that if those castles aren't fixed up properly, the wildlings will be the ones to bear the consequences---another leader might have threatened to blame Yarwyck himself for such a failure, to put the consequences on him. But if these castles aren't fixed up, that's not going to affect Yarwyck himself in the slightest, only the wildlings who will have to live in crappy conditions, so it's hard for me to suss out Yarwyck's exact thoughts/fears/motivations. I can't tell if Yarwyk is in on the assassination plot, is in the dark about the assassination plot, or was in on the plot at the beginning but decided against it at the last moment (we've seen him do this in the past----he was supposedly going to back Slynt for LC in ASOS, but changed his mind about supporting Slynt's candidacy at the last second).

Interesting that Ghost supposedly tried to bite Mully, but only "sniffed at [Marsh and Yarwyck], his tail upraised and bristling". Why doesn't he try to take a bite out of them (or at least Marsh himself)? Perhaps it's because, at this point, there doesn't seem to be a Marsh-centric plan for Jon to be stabbed---it seems like the Marsh conspiracy expects Jon to die during his ranging. So what's going on with Mully? The answer might lie in the Pink Letter: Mully is the person who announces the letter's arrival, and Mully is the one who really, really wants Jon to read the letter right this second. If Mel had something to do with the Pink Letter (and never told Selyse), then perhaps Mully is working primarily with Mel, not Marsh or Selyse? (And as a side note: Mully claims Ghost tried to bite him in Jon's absence, but . . . Mully was stationed outside of the armory door. So when was Ghost, who was inside the room, have a chance to attack Mully, who was outside the (presumably) closed door?)

I love how Borroq has "taken up residence in one of the ancient tombs beside the castle lichyard." Yeah, cause that's not creepy in the slightest. Borroq's attitude toward Jon is a bit of a cypher: obviously he realizes Jon is also a skinchanger, and he should logically realize that skinchangers are treated differently south of the Wall. I'm very curious how he views Jon: LC of the Watch, a Stark bastard, an apparently quite powerful untutored skinchanger. Is he actually opposed to Jon, or is he only reacting negatively to Jon in the Shieldhall because he's kind of insulted that Ghost seems to want to attack his boar, and assumes Ghost wants to do that because Jon subconsciously wants to attack Borroq himself? Or is it that he just doesn't realize Jon is untutored in skinchanging, and thinks Jon is lying about being unable to control Ghost if Ghost attacks the boar?

Jon mentioned that Borroq's boar wasn't with him in the Shieldhall. So where was it? I've seen speculation that Melisandre left the Shieldhall to go get Ghost. But I wonder: perhaps she went to go kill Ghost, and Borroq's boar will actually end up saving Ghost's life? Wouldn't that be a kicker.

Interesting tidbit: Jon mentions seeing men pouring into the yard: not just Queen's men and wildlings, but northmen as well. I was assuming that Old Flint and the Norrey had left the Wall, but is this a hint that they're still present? What other Northmen could Jon mean?

[Ragnorak]

Selyse

From the opening line Selyse gets my hate juices flowing.

Let them die,” said Queen Selyse.

Something about her in this scene reminds me of Lysa calling Sansa the dwarf's leavings. The attitude, the way she holds her own child while trying to condemn so many other children to death is the exact opposite of the reason that pulled Stannis to the Wall in the first place. If she can't even kiss her own child on her scarred cheek, the one this poor affection starved little girl needs to know can be loved, she'll never spare a thought beyond her own petty whims.

Up spoke Ser Malegorn. “Lord Snow, who will lead this ranging?” “Are you offering yourself, ser?”

“Do I look so foolish?”

...

They all laughed. Even Queen Selyse allowed herself a thin smile. Jon was less amused. “I will not ask my men to do what I would not do myself. I mean to lead the ranging.”

“How bold of you,” said the queen. “We approve. Afterward some bard will make a stirring song about you, no doubt, and we shall have a more prudent lord commander.” She took a sip of wine. “Let us speak of other matters. Axell, bring in the wildling king, if you would be so good.”

Here is a man so committed to the importance of his decision that he is willing to risk his own life for it and all she can say is I hope you die-- then she wants to chatter on about how's she's playing matchmaker with the people she never wanted Jon to let through the Wall in the first place. To slightly paraphrase John Stuart Mill, Selyse is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than herself.

Here is also a small example of the Jon/Sansa parallel. Selyse is referencing songs of gallant knights in a room full of knights that openly mock the gallantry of saving helpless children.

Patchface

Patchface jumped up. “I will lead it!” His bells rang merrily. “We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.”

If under the sea is death, that means "we" will die and resurrect. Who are the mermaids? Does this have to do with Jon's crypt dreams or will the dead from hardhome walk to Castle Black on their own? Come to think of it, this creepy little jester has a far better track record than Mel. Give that man some flint and steel.

Melisandre

"Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his spearwives? Where is my sister?”

For the umpteenth chapter in a row Jon asks these questions and still gets no answer. For a woman looking to get into his good graces you'd think maybe she might take the hint.

“I have made mistakes, I have admitted as much, but—”

But she hasn't admitted as much. Jon's previously pointed out that "A grey girl on a dying horse" wasn't Arya and Mel gets all OMG you're totally like gonna die and stuff "daggers in the dark" I can give you names...

Sure she's right this chapter but after 150 years of Targs lighting themselves on fire one of them was bound to hit Dragon Lotto. That didn't make Summerhall a good idea with their red eyed prophetess.

Seriously though, if she could tell him where Mance, Arya or Stannis was he might actually stop and consider her "Let them die" Hardhome advice. This is at least her third "daggers in the dark" warning which was enough to doom the little boy who cried wolf.

Marsh and Co

“Six. Mully and the Flea look in need of something warm. So will you.”

Jon hasn't lost the small touch when it comes to looking out for his men.

Marsh and Yarwyck are so very helpful here, no really. <cough> Let's look at this through a current military lens. "Sir, I am going to fail at the tasking you have assigned me. I refuse to use the resources you have made available to me because I find certain failure preferable to the annoyance of complying with your orders." or "We have an alliance with the Russians and need to plan an Op, who do you think is best suited?" "Screw the Russians, we should be killing those commy bastards." "They aren't commies anymore. How many men would you recommend for the operation?" "Screw your operation, let the Russians die we should be killing them anyway." Always nice to have prudent combat advice from your rear area logistics officer and the supply officer in charge of furniture. With forward thinkers like these guys the US can finally correct that mistake of failing to annex Canada back in 1812. What do you mean peace treaty?-- they're Canadians!!! Don't you people watch South Park!?!

Hmm... maybe there's a better word than "helpful."

Sorry, couldn't resist. It is interesting that Jon has come to rely so much upon Leathers. That makes Satin the only non-Wildling that we as readers witness him finding useful this chapter. Last chapter it was the Wildlings having the snowball fight that reminded him of his family. After the miserable encounter with Selyse and this useless counsel session with Marsh and Yarwick I think Jon is emotionally moved entirely to a kinship with the Wildlings and it is to them he turns when he gets the letter.

The Pink Letter

Some self plagiarism from another post:

If I had to guess I would say that Mance was sent to rescue Arya and had little choice because Mel's glamour holds him in chains (not that breaking into Winterfell isn't his idea of fun.) He brought the spearwives with his Abel ploy in mind not trusting in Mel's prophetic certainty (he was married to Mrs Sword with No Hilt) but also to help him go off script. His intentions were to save Arya for Jon and deal a blow to the Boltons so that he could return to the Wall as Mance with enough clout to live through that transgression. If he died in the attempt his sacrifice would carry weight with Jon (and maybe Mel/Stannis) and hopefully provide currency to buy a better lot for his son and his people at the Wall-- at least his son and people would know he died more honorably than Rattleshirt.

The letter is probably not from Ramsay. The text provides detailed descriptions of previous Ramsay letters and the differences are not likely an oversight by Martin. If it is Mance I would guess he's hiding in the crypts just like the Bael story. He sent the letter so that his sacrifice would be known, he could return to being Mance if he lived, and to provoke Jon to come south with the Wildling army that a live Mance in danger would provide him.

Val as a "wildling princess" could only come from Mance or one of Stannis's men. I don't think the spearwives would ever relay that information even under torture because it just would never occur to them that Val is a princess.

“He has Lightbringer. He talks of heads upon the walls of Winterfell. He knows about the spearwives and their number.” He knows about Mance Rayder. “No. There is truth in there.”

That seems to imply that he thinks there are lies as well but not necessarily. What does he think is truth and what are the lies? Does it not matter because he can't risk not going given the risk?

The snow was falling heavily outside. “Wind’s from the south,” Yarwyck observed.

If Osha was correct when she told Bran that the wind was the Old Gods speaking is Jon being called South or warned against going because it is a storm?

Prior to the letter something in Jon seemed to crack.

My brothers. The Night’s Watch needed leaders with the wisdom of Maester Aemon, the learning of Samwell Tarly, the courage of Qhorin Halfhand, the stubborn strength of the Old Bear, the compassion of Donal Noye. What it had instead was them.

After the letter comes the flood of family.

He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon’s breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady’s coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird’s nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell ... I want my bride back ... I want my bride back ... I want my bride back ...

Arya clearly hits deepest.

The giant was dangling a bloody corpse by one leg, the same way Arya used to dangle her doll when she was small, swinging it like a morningstar when menaced by vegetables. Arya never tore her dolls to pieces, though.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end.

He thinks of Arya even wayching a giant kill a man, he thinks of Arya as he's stabbed.

I wonder if taking charge of so many people who are so removed from the actual function of the Watch has removed Jon personally from his primary responisbility to the Watch. He is caring for women and children and families like a Lord and not a Lord Commander.

“The Night’s Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless ...” Jon paused. “... is there any man here who will come stand with me?”

The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that the two old shields tumbled from the walls. Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the Great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

When the even Great Walrus is on his feet looking to follow you to war in a snowstorm to cut someone's heart out of his chest you are the new King of the Wildlings.

Outstanding Items

Karstark

The two corpses

“Girls,” squawked Mormont’s raven. “Girls, girls.”

Tze, your analysis of Selyse and her plotting is just wonderful. I especially love the Jon as Bael's heir part. Missed it all completely but it makes such perfect sense as you lay it out.

[Lummel]

Interesting stuff about Veblen, Lummel. I've never had the opportunity to read his work, but it comes highly recommended by several friends as a masterpiece. I particularly like the reference to conspicuous consumption, as I find it very relevant to the "leisure class" in Westeros and Essos. It's interesting to view the actions of the Yunkish Grand Masters in such a light- like the Yellow Whale with like 50 slaves carrying his palanquin. Not at all a remotely useful allocation of resources, but important to displaying wealth and superior status. We can definitely make a good connection to so-called trappings of power here.

Theory of the Leisure Class is great, but you have to get used to Veblen's prose style which is something else. Veblen was an economist who wanted to find mechanisms that would explain the economic activity of the Inuit as well as Wall Street, while classical economics in his view was effectively just focused on the Wall Street end of the picture and so misinterpreted what we are about when we hunt, grow, make and sell.

Conspicuous consumption is interesting in Westeros because GRRM contrasts display (Rabbit Ears) against more modest forms of leadership - say Renly compared to Qhorin. Putting on the big show works in Westeros in winning supporters although it doesn't get the job of leadership done.

Argh! I never have enough time to write my thoughts for this thread. Forgive lack of quoting and editing, since both are still very uncomfortable on iOS, alas.

You are welcome to drop in! Hurry though while the thread still lasts :) !

Barristan's chapters show that Dany's despair and resignation were not quite appropriate. She did achieve a lasting enough change that even with her out of the picture, her opponents can't immediately undo her reforms, however imperfect they were. In fact, Hizdahr and his puppeteers seem pretty much at impasse. The forces outside aren't as friendly to them as they seemed, predictably enough. The time Dany's bought for her freedmen allowed them to gain enough strength that they have organized themselves into rather formidable forces, which allow Barristan to take over. This ties back into Dany's isolation and lack of method (and later, lack of desire, due to depression), to gauge the mood of her subjects.

Yes, agreed. That's the POV effect. Until Barristan and Quentyn we only get to see Meereen through Daenerys' eyes. She's young and impatient for change and success. The persepctive of a freed slave would probably have been far more sympathic to her successes, but the point is that we are meant to experience Daenerys' move to accommodation with the slavers as inevitable, as a result of her despair and despression I suppose.

It is also obvious by now that Kandaq has some major feud with Loraq and joined Dany for revenge. That could have been used and, to a degree, secures loyalty of Kandaq to the new regime.

Well she does, inadvertantly, doesn't she? The Shavepate is supporting her and even without her is prepared to take any risk to bring down Loraq. The intersting thing here for me about to start on a Tyrion reread and looking at ACOK is how far Daenerys' and Tyrion's positions parallel each other. Formally they are both in charge and top dog, but in reality are totally open to manipulation and being played by those in control of the flows of information. Daenerys was been a piece, a powerful one to be sure, in the game played for power in Meereen between Kandaq and Loraq (and many others no doubt).

...One of the prevailing themes in Barristan's internal reflections is a deep profound regret. To fall back on Aemon's speech, I think he is coming to grips here with the fact that he has made a lot of choices that he can't really live with for all the rest of his days and is starting to choose differently. He asks himself "I was a Kingsguard. What am I now?" ...

I may also be overly partial to Barry here because the type of reflection he engages in here is exactly what I wanted to see from Dany all along in her learning to lead experience in Meereen. I may have some bias bleeding through.

What do you mean here Ragnarok? It seems to me that Daenerys has been trapped by her reflections in Meereen. Eroeh is the forerunner to Astapor for her, Daenerys' self-doubt coming from her fear of the negative results of her actions cripple her don't they? I think in the face of that kind of a narrative of failure (although false) there is no space for thinking about what does it mean to be a Queen, or what should she do with her power.

I never noticed it before . . . but it's interesting just how much of "Hizdahr's" court session in Barristan's first chapter was actually conducted by Reznak. Hizdahr is seated on the throne, but it's Reznak who is actually dealing with the petitioners and the Yunkish, not Hizdahr---Hizdahr is basically just sitting there quietly up until the head is thrown on the floor (and even then, Reznak is the one broaching issues of state (the other hostages, for example), not Hizdahr).

I suspect that Reznak is the conduit to the Green Grace. Hizdahr isn't the sharpest tool in the box as we see so somebody has to run things even if for family reasons Hizdahr is the most senior and the Loraq's king-candidate.

...It was okay for Aerys to viciously slaughter all of the children of House Darklyn and House Hollard (with Barristan only moving in to save a single child, Dontos), and of course that didn't cause Barristan to actually move against Aerys, but he would totally have freaked if he'd seen what happened when Rhaegar's children were presented to Robert? So were some children worth more to him than others?

Barristan apparently likes torturing himself over his failures as well as his successes; had he failed at Duskendale but succeeded in the Tourney of Harrenhal, he thinks events might have unfolded rather differently. I can see the logic in the former, but the latter? Four lords didn't rise against the Targs because Rhaegar crowned Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty. They rose because of events begun when Rhaegar ran off with her. Barristan's victory or defeat at Harrenhal was not going to change anything, because events there were already in motion...

Yes, for Barristan politics is about the grand public gestures and individual actions, not what is happening behind the scenes. In fact he's blind to what was going on behind the scenes whether that be Rhaegar or the Southern policy of Lord Stark. In that way he is an extremely dangerous advisor to Daenerys I fear.

Was anyone else incredibly creeped out by this? "Pretty pink cheeks"???

Not to mention, Hizdahr is treating the noble hostages basically as his slaves. This is basically what the Green Grace told Dany the noblility feared she'd do (that Dany would enslave their children), and it's interesting how Hizdahr seems to need those hostages just as much as Dany did (at least, he seems to be in no hurry to return them to their families). Dany took hostages because she couldn't control the nobility, she married Hizdahr because he supposedly could control the nobility, so why does Hizdahr need hostages against the nobility again?

Hizdahr's regime is even weaker than Daenerys' :), and yes sexualised violence...hmm...rather like Hizdahr's lustful look at Drogon. Really not someone you'd want to be king.

(As a side note: as far as I can tell, the Stormcrows are the only sellsword company I think we've seen to have multiple commanders. Daario was originally part of a triumvirate of captains, he killed the other two, and then claimed he was the sole Stormcrow captain. But when Daario is a hostage, two men step up to speak for the Stormcrows, not one. I wonder: was Daario ever really the sole captain of the Stormcrows, or was he sharing power there all along with these other two, and nobody told Dany or Barristan?)

Interesting. Adds to the earlier argument that Daario is a lying liar who lies with regard to taking credit for killing the enemy and winning the alliance with the Lamb people.

. . . then what exactly was the purpose of Hizdahr visiting all those pyramids prior to marrying Dany? Twenty-six days into Dany's "give me ninety days of peace" challenge, Hizdahr had already visited eleven pyramids, ostensibly as part of his quest to convince the Sons to lay down their knives. But if Hizdahr already had the Harpy's support from the get-go, and it seems likely that he did, then obviously his visits to the other pyramids weren't really geared around getting the Sons to lay down their knives. So what was he doing during these visits? I'd say there's a pretty excellent chance he was on the Meereenese equivalent of a campaign tour, trying to get the other noble families to support him as their (future) king. And he wouldn't have had to do that if the other noble families already wanted Hizdahr as their king, or if they really were assuming that only a Loraq could have the support/prestige to be their king.

Yes the situation is Meereen is dynamic. It's not Daenerys versus Meereen, it's a bucket full of crabs biting and fighting to be the King Crab. Daenerys doesn't get to realise that her opposition is divided and never is able to take full advantage of that.

[Chaircat Meow]

That seems to imply that he thinks there are lies as well but not necessarily. What does he think is truth and what are the lies? Does it not matter because he can't risk not going given the risk?

I think its just the logical thing to say if you are happy to admit you believe all of the letter but not that Mance is still alive.

Prior to this Jon dodged Tormund's question about Mance.

Jon basically does confirm, in his thoughts, he thinks Stannis is dead later, when he says Selyse has a right to know her husband is dead.

I think he said 'No there is truth in there' because to tell Tormund about Mance would be to commit himself to a rescue attempt, as Tormund wouldn't stand for Jon holding back. Jon didn't want to burn his bridges until after he had made up his mind, which happened in the para where he contrasts his thoughts of his family to his duty to the NW and his development as a man and a leader.

That's an excellent observation about the similarities about the present situation and the story of Bael the Bard. I think it goes to show its the Mance part of the letter that makes it such a good recruiting agent for Jon, implying we have to assume the fact it was read out as an explicit attempt to summon an army, while Tormund was next to Jon and presumably nodding away, convinced the wildlings Mance was alive despite the fact Jon did not confirm this.

Incidentally, doesn't this muddy the waters of the 'Jon is now the king-of-the-wildlings' theory. Afterall, it implies Jon has the support he does because of everyone's desire to go and rescue their old leader. Why would you be so eager to do this if you already had another king? How would the wildlings have reacted to Ramsay's threats to Jon if Jon cut out all reference to Mance in the letter?

[Ragnorak]

I think its just the logical thing to say if you are happy to admit you believe all of the letter but not that Mance is still alive.

Prior to this Jon dodged Tormund's question about Mance.

Jon basically does confirm, in his thoughts, he thinks Stannis is dead later, when he says Selyse has a right to know her husband is dead.

I think he said 'No there is truth in there' because to tell Tormund about Mance would be to commit himself to a rescue attempt, as Tormund wouldn't stand for Jon holding back. Jon didn't want to burn his bridges until after he had made up his mind, which happened in the para where he contrasts his thoughts of his family to his duty to the NW and his development as a man and a leader.

That's an excellent observation about the similarities about the present situation and the story of Bael the Bard. I think it goes to show its the Mance part of the letter that makes it such a good recruiting agent for Jon, implying we have to assume the fact it was read out as an explicit attempt to summon an army, while Tormund was next to Jon and presumably nodding away, convinced the wildlings Mance was alive despite the fact Jon did not confirm this.

Incidentally, doesn't this muddy the waters of the 'Jon is now the king-of-the-wildlings' theory. Afterall, it implies Jon has the support he does because of everyone's desire to go and rescue their old leader. Why would you be so eager to do this if you already had another king? How would the wildlings have reacted to Ramsay's threats to Jon if Jon cut out all reference to Mance in the letter?

It does seem that Mance and the number of spearwives is what really convinces Jon of the truth in the letter. His thoughts later definitely convey he believes Stannis is dead as well. The stated fate of the spearwives seems to make him fear for Arya and might be a sign of a blind spot in Jon-- or at least something that he can't not act on if there is any doubt. Maybe I wonder about it too much because I would always believe a Ramsay letter to be filled with half truths.

I think the waters will get muddy on the King of the Wildlings front once Mance is rescued. I suspect the Free Folk anticipate that Mance and Jon will work that out just like Mance and Tormund did. As long as Jon is rescuing Mance there is no loyalty conflict until after Mance is freed.

I've gone back and forth on that Pink Letter and only recently settled on Mance as the author. I would feel better about that except that now I'm just as torn over Mel's role in the stabbing as I used to be on the Pink Letter.

@Lummel

This was more a comment about my initial expectations of Dany's time in Meereen than it is a comment about Dany. My expectation was that she would not be crippled by her negative results but would reflect on them and learn during her time as Queen. Barry's reflections here are closer to what I wanted from Dany so I may have a more positive view of his chapters than is objectively warranted.

[Lummel]

A few loose impressions and points.

Borroq and the start of his pig army are in the lichyard - so the churchyard. Septon Cellador must be happy about this. Still it increases the association with the boar with death and as Associate Maester points out above religious observance (ETA or the lack of appropriate observance).

Jon seems particularly distracted and irritable in this chapter, he's dismissive of Selyse, Melisandre, his officers, not just in his thoughts but in word too. I'm not saying that he should be attentive, but that he is more dismissive and contemptuous than previously.

Now the ending...I'm going to go off on a tangent here as it reminded me of two other scenes. Arya ripping open the belly of the rag doll belonging to the little girl who was following her around in ASOS and Sansa 'killing' Sweetrobin's doll and sticking it's head on a spike on the wall of snow winterfell. I'm not a believer in chance parallels in GRRM, neither am I sure what to make of this. Perhaps that certain patterns or events are paralleling each other in the Stark story lines, that they are each undergoing a distorted version of the same story?

Lastly it's interesting that the balance of power has shifted. Tze mentioned Selyse's 'wait until daddy Stannis comes home!' except Jon now has a theoretical strength equal to the army Stannis brought with him. And those hill clansmen who marched to Winterfell to save The Ned's little girl. Are they going to side with Stannis if it comes to a fight against Jon or with The Ned's little bastard boy who looks so much like a Stark?

[Blisscraft]

Kinship - BB made some great observations earlier regarding kinship (during the Karstark marriage?). I couldn't find them quickly, but the Bael the Bard story is an example of how the Wall doesn't prevent ingress and egress of "men," wildings or otherwise. However, it certainly prevents something like "Coldhands" from coming through. Consequently, there are blood ties North and South of the Wall whether recognized in some "legal" manner or not. This feeds into the "magical" purpose of the Wall, as Jon and some others recognize, as a shield to protect mankind from the Others and wights and things that go bump in the night. (Not that kind of bump!)

Wun Wun - Lummel, I agree. I thought the same thing when I read the chapter the first time. I think it's interesting that it is the girls, Arya and Sansa, that start and continue the giant and ragdoll motif. Maybe it's just because dolls are associated with girls, but I can't help thinking that there are no accidents in GRRM's world and the fact that Jon thinks of the girls earlier in the chapter and of Arya's first sword technique (Stick them with the pointy end) that this will return in some form or fashion.

Patchface - Does anyone else find it interesting that Shireen has a "patchface" too?

More later.

[Blisscraft]

A couple more things -

Shieldhall - Jon has pratical reasons for chosing it to discuss his plans. It is significant as a place because it was where the "knights of Westeros" left behind their loyalties to kith and kin and became brothers of the NW. The descriptions of all the sigils and their colors "like a rainbow," reveal more about the created "kinship" of the NW and the theme of brotherhood. Also, it's significant that the shield was removed at the death of a brother and buried with him. Surrendered in life, but returned in death. The plain shield of the NW is the shield that guards the realms of men. There were/are no distinctions.

About Mully - in the "Bastard" letter scene, Tormund, Jon and Mully exchange "sayings." Mully's "two groats" is "ummer friends melt away like summer snows, but winter friends are friends forever." I'm not sure of it's importance and yet, it sticks out, especially since this whole chapter is about betrayal.

Bowen's tears - Wick, the same "Careful of the rats. . . " Wick, that Edd regarded earlier in the book, isn't crying as he attempts to stab Jon. "For the Watch." he says and when he's disarmed, holds up his hands in a gesture that says, "Not me, it was not me." Wick denies responsibility with his gesture, but his conduct, the stabbing, says otherwise. Bowen, the only other conspirator that Jon notices, says, "For the Watch," too. But Jon sees, before Bowen's "punch," that tears are streaming down Bowen's face. What about these tears? Are they "crocodile tears?" The "tears of a clown?" Will he "cry a river" over Jon? Tears are associated with joy and sorrow. Tears reveal pain and compassion. Tears can resurrect gods (Osiris, for example). What do Bowen's mean?

Jon has a thought in the previous chapter about the one hundred hostages and their lack of tears. He thinks, "These are winter's people. Tears freeze upon their cheeks." Do Bowen's freeze? Will his tears fill his scar? :dunno:

[Lummel]

Eh! I almost forgot to mention that this is Jon XIII.

Two things, firstly as Butterbumps! pointed out to me this is Chapter Thirteen which is a form of bankruptcy under the United States Bankruptcy Code, so Bowen Marsh is foreclosing on Jon's attempt to run the Night's Watch, a bit of a nod there to his dealings and bartering with the Iron Bank and the Wildlings maybe?

And secondly, as I've mentioned before Jon XIII = John 13 in which Jesus predicts his betrayal at the hands of his closest comrades. This plays into the death and resurrection idea of the Corn King (indeed Frazer in The Golden Bough thought that the Jesus story and the Corn King ultimately came from a common source story a religious need to explain and perhaps induce the return of the spring).

The possibility of death and resurrection points us in to contrasting directions in ASOIAF. Firstly those resurrected by fire like UnBeric and UnCat, secondly those resurrected by ice like the wights or possibly the Cold Gods themselves. I'm not sure that either example bodes well for Jon, each suggests a sharply more sinister turn in his story. Or maybe I'm just a pessimist, or rather a Dolorous Eddist :) .

(If you don't think that GRRM would make references like these may I remind you that this is the man who worked the Three Stooges into AGOT)

[Ice Turtle]

I wonder if Bowen's tears aren't for Bowen. Besides Jon he is also sacrificing himself after all.