Learning to Lead IV: sucess in failure? An ADWD Daenerys and Jon reread project

[Julian Rayne]

Septon Cellador cleared his throat. “Lord Slynt,” he said, “this boy refused to swear his vows properly in the sept, but went beyond the Wall to say his words before a heart tree. His father’s gods, he said, but they are wildling gods as well.”

That was particularly disgusting for someone of the Night's Watch to say. If there was a proper way of saying vows, it was Jon's way. The Sept was added thousands of years later.

Talk about Southron fools.

ETA: I finally got it. When Jon speaks/thinks of Southron fools, he doesn't means Southrons who happen to be fools, but fools who think that their Southron ways apply in the North. Balman Byrch is a Southron and a fool but not necessarily a Southron fool.

[Fire Eater]

That was particularly disgusting for someone of the Night's Watch to say. If there was a proper way of saying vows, it was Jon's way. The Sept was added thousands of years later.

Talk about Southron fools.

ETA: I finally got it. When Jon speaks/thinks of Southron fools, he doesn't means Southrons who happen to be fools, but fools who think that their Southron ways apply in the North. Balman Byrch is a Southron and a fool but not necessarily a Southron fool.

At least with the weirwoods, sobriety isn't a problem.

ETA: At the end when the horn is sounded, Jon knows Val has come back with Tormund. When Dany sent Brown Ben Plumm to bring the sellswords over to her, he switched sides. When Jon sent Val to bring Tormund and the rest of the wildlings to the Wall, his gambit proves to be a success. Although to be fair, Hardhome seems to be a different story for now.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

At least with the weirwoods, sobriety isn't a problem.

ETA: At the end when the horn is sounded, Jon knows Val has come back with Tormund. When Dany sent Brown Ben Plumm to bring the sellswords over to her, he switched sides. When Jon sent Val to bring Tormund and the rest of the wildlings to the Wall, his gambit proves to be a success. Although to be fair, Hardhome seems to be a different story for now.

Good catch on the Val-Plumm thing.

[tze]

Alys Karstark slipped her arm through Jon’s. “How much longer, Lord Snow? If I’m to be buried beneath this snow, I’d like to die a woman wed."

"Soon, my lady," Jon assured her. "Soon."

I love how Melisandre's droning on and on here about how wonderful and awesome the Lord of Light is, while Jon and Alys are metaphorically looking at their watches and rolling their eyes. And poor Mel is trying so very, very hard to impress everyone, what with her completely unnecessary fire tricks.

Melisandre raised her hands, and the ditchfire leapt upward toward her fingers, like a great red dog springing for a treat.

Heh. Interesting that Jon compares the flames here to a domesticated dog, given how many times we've had it emphasized that dogs are subservient to wolves.

A gust of wind lifted the red woman’s scarlet skirts till she pressed them down again.

No matter how solemn Melisandre tries to make the occasion, nature will still fuck with her. This amuses me to no end.

Winter has come to the Wall, and it's interesting to see what force seems to be winning the ice/fire battle here:

“All praise R’hllor, the Lord of Light,” the wedding guests answered in ragged chorus before a gust of ice-cold wind blew their words away.

Even Melisandre’s fire was shivering; the flames huddled down in the ditch, crackling softly as the red priestess sang. Only Ghost seemed not to feel the chill.

The snow had started to descend more heavily and the fire in the ditch was guttering out. The crowd began to break apart and stream from the yard, queen’s men, king’s men, and free folk alike, all anxious to get out of the wind and the cold.

The snow is destroying Melisandre's fires and the cold winds are annihilating the red god's prayers. The cold winds are "blowing up Melisandre's skirts", which does two things: 1) It disrupts the solemnity of Mel's ceremony---it's hard to look like a living representation of an all-powerful god when you're desperately trying to avoid having a wardrobe malfunction, and 2) It emphasizes Mel's overall lack of control, for although she can make the fire go up and down, she can't control the wind, and she can't keep the fires from dying in the snow and the cold.

Jon's very matter-of-fact discussion with Alys about the food stores and the "custom" of old men heading off into the cold to basically commit suicide-by-winter was heartbreaking. We'd had hints about this elsewhere---Bran made reference to this back in ACOK, and Big Bucket Wull also referenced it in Asha's POV---but this is the first time anyone's flat-out described the sort of hardships the Northmen have to face every winter. It says a lot about this society in a general sense, because the old men "go hunting" so that the remaining food can presumably go to the young ones---it's a pretty brutal and harsh type of self-sacrifice, the kind that nobody celebrates, and it's the sort of custom I can't see springing up in climates like Slaver's Bay or Volantis or the Westerosi south. That Jon has been thinking about this reality of life in the North, and can tie himself (and the rest of House Stark), via the First Flints, to those forced to make these kinds of sacrifice, says a lot about Jon and the Starks.

This entire chapter is filled with the sort of give-and-take integration that was absent from Dany's wedding. Dany doesn't keep the gods of Ghis, Hizdahr does, and her wedding was basically entirely dictated by noble Meereenese customs, with the single alteration that Hizdahr washed her feet. Here, neither Alys nor Sigorn keep the red god, but Melisandre officiates regardless. In that sense, neither spouse "wins out" because neither spouse follows R'hllor---either both of them feel this form of ceremony is binding, or neither of them do. (Although who wants to bet that they stop at the first weirwood they find and have a do-over?) Alys does get to have a ceremony with a bridal cloak, which obviously the wedding rites of R'hllor would ordinarily not have. Sigorn's family would not have married with bridal cloaks, but the use of the cloaks allows Sigorn to gain his own House sigil, which serves as a way to begin the process of integrating him into the nobility structure south of the Wall. Jon gives Alys away, which forces Sigorn to associate Jon with his (hopefully well-loved) brand-new wife, Alys, thus allowing Jon and Sigorn (presumably) to have a better relationship in the future.

It's interesting how Jon keeps making note of what actions specific Queen's Men are taking (not just Axell Florent): first at the wedding ceremony itself, later at the feast. They are not some nameless mass to him, and he's quietly judging their capabilities and the potential problems he thinks they'll pose to him.

On a side note: I wonder if the "wisps of crimson silk" used to make the bridal cloak might have come from Mance's crimson-silk-patched cloak? Jon did mention that Rattleshirt didn't have that cloak when he was burned.

[Winterfellian]

Wow some many great posts to this chapter. This is one of my Jon favorites in ADWD. Unfortunately I don't really have much time now, so I will just tossed this out there and return for a more lenghty post tomorrow:

Personally I always felt that Jon was stepping out of his vows with the whole weddig thing but I found it very interesting that Karsttark (the most affected party) never call him upon this. When Jon confronts him Karstark called him off for violating guest right or becoming a kinslayer. However never does he said: You cannot to this because it is against your oath. Or the LC of the Night Watch can't interfere in this matters. Was Jon actually within the boundaries of his oath? Or did he broke it but in such a way that it wasn't perceived as so, like using guest right? What do you guys think?

[Ragnorak]

I love how Melisandre's droning on and on here about how wonderful and awesome the Lord of Light is, while Jon and Alys are metaphorically looking at their watches and rolling their eyes. And poor Mel is trying so very, very hard to impress everyone, what with her completely unnecessary fire tricks.

I thought of the fake Arya Old God wedding when I read that.

Do you? Yes. Yes. Tree saw, let's drink.

Absolutely love the fire and ice battle.

Your hardship comparison reminds me of the TV Ned and Jaime confrontation where Ned says "You served him well, when serving was safe." I think this Northern level of hardship, sacrifice, and familiarity with death is at the center of Northern honor. With the expectation of death, such a loss becomes more about what is preserved than what is lost which is at the heart of The North Remembers. It is definitely a place where you learn growing up that there are things more valuable than one's own life.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

<snip>

I think that this chapter might give a hint as to how other certain fire-based ... things ... might fare in the North (read: not well).

[Faint]

I've always taken this chapter to be the point when Jon irretrievably broke his vows and ensured his own assassination, all the while being too naive to realize this truth. The whole sequence of events is somewhat mystifying from here on out because it does seem, from all the times he mentions it, that Jon is well aware that there is a sizable and growing faction of his own men that are opposed to him. But, even with that being the case, he apparently fails to make the connection between the growing discontent with his leadership and the increasing possibility that he might be deposed (or worse).

I've never been comfortable with how this part of his story was written. It is either implausible or we are intended to believe that Jon can be despairingly stupid. And, really, how dumb do you have to be in order to largely ignore the increasing likelihood that you might be assassinated by your own men -- largely on account of your unpopular policies -- when your immediate predecessor suffered that very fate? And what of Melisandre's prophecy? Does Jon never contemplate what it might mean in light of this continuing series of events that point to his men as the most likely threat to his own life?

This brings a whole set of other questions to mind. Does Jon not realize just how unpopular he is becoming among an ever growing swath of his men? If he does realize it, is he formulating a plan to tackle the issue? And if he has given up trying to convince his men to his way of thinking, does he have some kind of contingency plan if they rebel?

More than anything, why isn't this thought process being played out in his chapters? Jon isn't exactly Littlefinger but he's not Ned either; he can't possibly be this out of tune with events (or at least I'd like to think he isn't).

[Arya Targaryen]

I've always taken this chapter to be the point when Jon irretrievably broke his vows and ensured his own assassination, all the while being too naive to realize this truth. The whole sequence of events is somewhat mystifying from here on out because it does seem, from all the times he mentions it, that Jon is well aware that there is a sizable and growing faction of his own men that are opposed to him. But, even with that being the case, he apparently fails to make the connection between the growing discontent with his leadership and the increasing possibility that he might be deposed (or worse).

I've never been comfortable with how this part of his story was written. It is either implausible or we are intended to believe that Jon can be despairingly stupid. And, really, how dumb do you have to be in order to largely ignore the increasing likelihood that you might be assassinated by your own men -- largely on account of your unpopular policies -- when your immediate predecessor suffered that very fate? And what of Melisandre's prophecy? Does Jon never contemplate what it might mean in light of this continuing series of events that point to his men as the most likely threat to his own life?

This brings a whole set of other questions to mind. Does Jon not realize just how unpopular he is becoming among an ever growing swath of his men? If he does realize it, is he formulating a plan to tackle the issue? And if he has given up trying to convince his men to his way of thinking, does he have some kind of contingency plan if they rebel?

More than anything, why isn't this thought process being played out in his chapters? Jon isn't exactly Littlefinger but he's not Ned either; he can't possibly be this out of tune with events (or at least I'd like to think he isn't).

I'm not sure the discontent is growing in a way you suggest. It could mean more and more men becoming discontent, or that the same (limited number of) men becoming more and more discontent. I think the latter is the case, mostly. I just don't think that those who supported Jon during the election are becoming more and more discontent. However, the likes of Marsh definitely are, but at this point Jon just accepted the fact they are useless anyway. Those who have been complaining about getting less food now can attend a feast. I doubt that they passed it. Common watchmen won't be absent from a feast just because he thinks it is some sort of taking part. It's the officers and those with whom they hang out all the time, a limited number of (useless) watchmen.

Jon may be aware that these men are more and more discontent, however, with the wedding and the following feast he may win over other (more important) parties.

[Faint]

I'm not sure the discontent is growing in a way you suggest . . .

It would be difficult for me to come to any kind of definitive opinion on the issue; after all, the story is written from Jon's perspective, not that of his men. In any case, I'm not sure it matters much to my analysis. Whether it is half a dozen men who are opposed to him or several dozens, the point remains the same. Why doesn't Jon spend more time, or any time for that matter, considering the very real possibility that he might be deposed or assassinated? I think we can all agree that Jon knows that there are men opposed to him and that they are growing more and more dissatisfied with his rule but, even possessed with the example of his predecessor and with Melisandre's warning in hand, he never seems to deal with the implications of this state of affairs. When it comes down to it, he is willfully blind about the subject and inexplicably so.

[The Snow King]

It would be difficult for me to come to any kind of definitive opinion on the issue; after all, the story is written from Jon's perspective, not that of his men. In any case, I'm not sure it matters much to my analysis. Whether it is half a dozen men who are opposed to him or several dozens, the point remains the same. Why doesn't Jon spend more time, or any time for that matter, considering the very real possibility that he might be deposed or assassinated? I think we can all agree that Jon knows that there are men opposed to him and that they are growing more and more dissatisfied with his rule but, even possessed with the example of his predecessor and with Melisandre's warning in hand, he never seems to deal with the implications of this state of affairs. When it comes down to it, he is willfully blind about the subject and inexplicably so.

The basic problem with assassination is that it only takes one person to attempt it, and to makes things easier everyone is armed on the Wall, at least with a dagger. Jon (or anyone for that matter) can be perfectly aware of the discontent, and even forewarned about the attempt, but unless the details are being known, there is not much that can be done about it. And Melissandre is not able to provide details, only 'daggers in the dark'. So how could Jon protect himself? Maybe he could always walk with a personal guard, but that would only work if you could perfectly trust in all people that are guarding him, and would undermine any respect his supporters do feel for him. After all, a commander so afraid of his own men would be considered laughing stock. It would work for a king who is expected to have a guard, but there never was anything similar to Kingsguard in the Watch. Jon would also only create an incredible amount of dissent if the tried to imprison or execute Marsh and his supporters without any good proof. I really don't see any way for Jon to protect himself and still remain a leader of NW. If it would be an outside force that was planning to kill him, yes, but there is no way to protect himself from his own men.

[Ragnorak]

I've always taken this chapter to be the point when Jon irretrievably broke his vows and ensured his own assassination, all the while being too naive to realize this truth. The whole sequence of events is somewhat mystifying from here on out because it does seem, from all the times he mentions it, that Jon is well aware that there is a sizable and growing faction of his own men that are opposed to him. But, even with that being the case, he apparently fails to make the connection between the growing discontent with his leadership and the increasing possibility that he might be deposed (or worse).

I've never been comfortable with how this part of his story was written. It is either implausible or we are intended to believe that Jon can be despairingly stupid. And, really, how dumb do you have to be in order to largely ignore the increasing likelihood that you might be assassinated by your own men -- largely on account of your unpopular policies -- when your immediate predecessor suffered that very fate? And what of Melisandre's prophecy? Does Jon never contemplate what it might mean in light of this continuing series of events that point to his men as the most likely threat to his own life?

This brings a whole set of other questions to mind. Does Jon not realize just how unpopular he is becoming among an ever growing swath of his men? If he does realize it, is he formulating a plan to tackle the issue? And if he has given up trying to convince his men to his way of thinking, does he have some kind of contingency plan if they rebel?

More than anything, why isn't this thought process being played out in his chapters? Jon isn't exactly Littlefinger but he's not Ned either; he can't possibly be this out of tune with events (or at least I'd like to think he isn't).

Regarding Mel's "prophesy," throughout this reread there has been a lot of focus on Jon's relationship with Mel. Mel essentially proves herself to be someone he cannot fully trust and and the same is true for her visions. The most accurate thing she has predicted were the three dead rangers and she told him that after they left on their ranging. It was not actionable intel so much as an "I told you so" prediction. Even in this chapter he goes to her, and his thoughts imply that he has been going to her regularly, and she can't tell him anything helpful. Worse she is insisting that her Arya prediction was correct. "Arya is coming" and "Jon Snow is in danger" have something in common as predictions-- the part Mel got wrong. "Beware daggers in the dark" just isn't anything you can react to or plan based on. If you take that kind of thing seriously it only leads to paralyzing paranoia (as we've pointed out with Dany.) Sure, on a reread we know Jon gets stabbed so it seems like a really valuable warning, but he can't do anything based on "daggers" and "dark." Both are in abundance in his everyday life. The one time Mel gave him info he could act on, he allowed ger to send Mance and the spearwives south and now he's beginning to suspect (with good reason) that she played him for her own agenda. "Jon, you've stopped keeping your wolf close since that other warg showed up. Find a solution that keeps Ghost with you" is helpful. Mel never offers anything of this sort in an actionable timeframe.

I don't think we see any evidence that the size of the faction of NW member's that disapprove of Jon is growing. Maybe the intensity of the dislike among those who don't approve, but not their numbers. The rangers have always been on his side. We start off with the impression that the Wildlings and Rangers are all bitter enemies but we later learn from the Halfhand and Mance that they trade and even know each other by name. Every man assigned to patrol the Wall is grateful to Jon for reopening the forts every time they get shelter and a warm fire at one during a patrol. At this point Jon's meeting with the banker is common knowledge so the food supply problem has been addressed. Marsh may fret over the debt but most men are probably happy knowing they'll eat this Winter. Jon notes every man that chose not to attend the wedding so he's clearly keeping tabs on the discontent. It was also Stannis that made the call to let the Wildlings through, not Jon. So Jon's making accomodations for the Free Folk is dealing with a situation the King who saved them all created. Even though Jon agrees and is planning on continuing the policy it is still Stannis that made the call and the twig and Mance burning ceremony made that clear to everyone.

[Arya Targaryen]

At this point Jon's meeting with the banker is common knowledge so the food supply problem has been addressed. Marsh may fret over the debt but most men are probably happy knowing they'll eat this Winter.

I agree with most of what you've said, except this. I understand that Marsh (and other men) should know about the loan, because they could have worked it out, but later chapters suggest Marsh knows nothing about it, and Jon doesn't tell him. He may know, but I have my doubts on this.

[Ragnorak]

I agree with most of what you've said, except this. I understand that Marsh (and other men) should know about the loan, because they could have worked it out, but later chapters suggest Marsh knows nothing about it, and Jon doesn't tell him. He may know, but I have my doubts on this.

Forget who, someone reasoned out in that chapter that Jon's long closed door meeting with the banker would have been obvious and a source of gossip and his sharing a meal with the banker would indicate a successful deal.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I have to wonder what people who think Jon is being stupid here would have him do. "Can't he see he's going to be assassinated!" And ... what? What does one do in this instance to avoid assassination? Go back to old-fogey policies just to placate the dinosaurs? He's not a monarch, he doesn't get a full complement of guards. He doesn't like his bodyguards following him, which would have to send a bad message to the men anyway. He's growing "unpopular." How would YOU remedy that? What if the only way to get popular again is to send the entire group of wildlings back across the Wall to their deaths? Is it worth it? There's a reason that pithy saying about "what's popular isn't always right and what's right isn't always popular" exists. I'd rather Jon be killed doing the right, progressive, but unpopular thing than bow down to backward-thinking men like Bowen and survive.

"But Melisandre told him she knew their names!" This is the woman who thought Alys Karstark was Arya. Enough said. I still can't fathom why anyone thinks he can trust or should trust her.

[Jayce]

Well said Apple.

I just wanted to say what an excellent job you guys are doing, I am enjoying this thread a lot :)

[Lykos]

Ragnorak, Arya Targaryen is referring to this discussion in Jon XI, I´m looking forward to seeing this discussed.

Jon had anticipated that question. “Through Eastwatch. We will bring in food by ship, as much as might be required. From the riverlands and the stormlands and the Vale of Arryn, from Dorne and the Reach, across the narrow sea from the Free Cities.”

“And this food will be paid for … how, if I may ask?”

With gold, from the Iron Bank of Braavos, Jon might

have replied. Instead he said, “I have agreed that the free folk may keep their furs and pelts. They will need those for warmth when winter comes. All other wealth they must surrender. Gold and silver, amber, gemstones, carvings, anything of value. We will ship it all across the narrow sea to be sold in the Free Cities.”

[Ragnorak]

Ragnorak, Arya Targaryen is referring to this discussion in Jon XI, I´m looking forward to seeing this discussed.

Jon had anticipated that question. “Through Eastwatch. We will bring in food by ship, as much as might be required. From the riverlands and the stormlands and the Vale of Arryn, from Dorne and the Reach, across the narrow sea from the Free Cities.”

“And this food will be paid for … how, if I may ask?”

With gold, from the Iron Bank of Braavos, Jon might

have replied. Instead he said, “I have agreed that the free folk may keep their furs and pelts. They will need those for warmth when winter comes. All other wealth they must surrender. Gold and silver, amber, gemstones, carvings, anything of value. We will ship it all across the narrow sea to be sold in the Free Cities.”

Ahh, thank you. Forgot that even happened. I was basing it on the back and forth we had about the loan in the earlier chapter.

[Lykos]

Ragnorak, I even based a whole theory about Bowen Marsh going over to Jon´s side in secret (off screen ), based on Jon´s deal with the iron bank. Then I read Jon XI :frown5: .

[Tagganaro]

All this speculation is off-topic and for a later Jon chapter Faint. As others have said, there's not much Jon can do about it currently, as in no way should he expect some kind of assassination effort (in all honesty, knowing Mel, he should probably be expecting a surprise birthday party or something and she's just misinterpreted it for the 150000 time).

I'd argue that there was never any plan to assassinate Jon...It all came together after Jon made the final leap of taking wildlings south to Winterfell. But nothing before that, or then obviously Jon would have been killed at a more opportune time, like say when he first tried to allow the wildlings through the Wall or he first gave aid to Stannis.

But again, somewhat off-topic I assume. This is just about Jon's current chapter.